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Will we pay Poyer or won't we?


Will Mcbeane give Poyer the money he's earned?  

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  1. 1. Will Mcbeane give Poyer the money he's earned?

    • Yes
      150
    • No
      98


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No issue with a 3 yr extension but I would not break the bank for him. He is a very good safety but I don't think he would be too difficult to replace. If they draft four front 7 defenders this year, you can let Poyer walk next year and replace him with a first or second round pick in 2021 draft

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11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I am all but certain the Bills are going to pay Poyer. If they don't he is going to hold out. 

 

You think they pay him if he's asking for $9 or $10 million a year?

 

How exactly do you envision Beane using the $90 million (roughly) in Cap space we're going to have but with the need to consider what we're going to do with Dawkins/Shaq/Tre/Milano/Poyer beginning this offseason, with Allen and Edmund's looming?

 

To me, none of those other positions probably can be even comparably replaced on our roster other than Poyer. Tre is irreplaceable, so pay him now please. Milano is close to it and had a great season despite the missed sack in the Texans game that looms large for everyone, but he should get paid this offseason. Do we have an OL who can play LT remotely close to the same level as Dawkins? Word has come out as the season ended that despite not having his option picked up, Shaq became a real leader this year (I think I read he gave the team's pre-game on field speech in Houston) and Beane and McDermott really love how he responded. Considering our lack of depth at DE, I think he gets paid.

 

We're going to have to pay the rookies, obviously.

 

Do you envision a big splash FA like Cooper or Green or Yannick? Or at least a few 2nd tier guys?

 

Where's the money we're going have left?

 

Do you think we let Shaq walk or wait to pay one or more of those 3 other guys, pushing another contract into a year we will possibly shell out a $100+ million QB contract plus a starting MLB contract?

 

I don't think it's definite that Beane doesn't pay him. Our GM is resourceful and can probably swing it. But Poyer is the only player among that group who looks like he has someone relatively capable underneath him on the depth chart. And on top of that, Beane drafted him whereas Whaley brought in Poyer.

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2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

You think they pay him if he's asking for $9 or $10 million a year?

 

How exactly do you envision Beane using the $90 million (roughly) in Cap space we're going to have but with the need to consider what we're going to do with Dawkins/Shaq/Tre/Milano/Poyer beginning this offseason, with Allen and Edmund's looming?

 

To me, none of those other positions probably can be even comparably replaced on our roster other than Poyer. Tre is irreplaceable, so pay him now please. Milano is close to it and had a great season despite the missed sack in the Texans game that looms large for everyone, but he should get paid this offseason. Do we have an OL who can play LT remotely close to the same level as Dawkins? Word has come out as the season ended that despite not having his option picked up, Shaq became a real leader this year (I think I read he gave the team's pre-game on field speech in Houston) and Beane and McDermott really love how he responded. Considering our lack of depth at DE, I think he gets paid.

 

We're going to have to pay the rookies, obviously.

 

Do you envision a big splash FA like Cooper or Green or Yannick? Or at least a few 2nd tier guys?

 

Where's the money we're going have left?

 

Do you think we let Shaq walk or wait to pay one or more of those 3 other guys, pushing another contract into a year we will possibly shell out a $100+ million QB contract plus a starting MLB contract?

 

I don't think it's definite that Beane doesn't pay him. Our GM is resourceful and can probably swing it. But Poyer is the only player among that group who looks like he has someone relatively capable underneath him on the depth chart. And on top of that, Beane drafted him whereas Whaley brought in Poyer.

 

Whaley did not bring in Poyer. His name was still above the door but it is beyond any reasonable doubt that McDermott ran that offseason lock, stock and barrel. 

 

What I think the Bills will do this season is extend Poyer, extend Dawkins, take up White's 5th year option (I don't expect a contract with Tre until after next season) and try and bring Shaq back if they can. Milano is a possible extension but again they could choose to let him play out. 

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16 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I didn't catch that.  good to hear - though it's tricky when you extend a guy who is still under contract if you give him too big a step, the rest of the team looks at their paper and says "urr urr where's mine?"

 

 

I agree with this, too, which is where what Poyer wants comes into it.  He deserves to be paid closer to Hyde.  But if they give him a long huge deal, Hyde and Tre White are going to be going "Hey Now!"  If Poyer will accept something like Eric Reid or Tashaun Gipson money, I think Beane would do that.  That would be 3 years, $22-23M, $10-11M fully guaranteed.  He'd be paid as a top 15 player at his position.

 

If he wants to be paid like Tyrann Mathieu, Beane will say "hey now, you're still under contract this next season you know"  and see what flies.

Tre White will have his fifth year exercised which will pay him huge bucks next year while we negotiate a large deal for him going forward. He’s also a good locker room

guy apparently. I doubt he starts sweating Poyer’s extension all that much. 

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14 hours ago, Penfield45 said:

hope not

 

we can draft a safety in the 3rd round or bring in another lowkey FA to fill his spot. Poyer plays well bc of Mc'd system, he really isn't all that talented like 

 

Hyde is more important 

He i quite talented in my humble opinion.
he is light and fast . he reads plays pretty well. he is used on the line and does decently there too.

But he is too slight to finish RB tackles without risk.
 Flies around the field nicely though.
I would not be quick to give him more money.

 He played above his pay , but that is what players should strive to regardless. He shows well this year ? someone will give him a payday.
 Loyalty bonus for him ? Sure. deserves something. Throw him some incentives 

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4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Tre White will have his fifth year exercised which will pay him huge bucks next year while we negotiate a large deal for him going forward. He’s also a good locker room

guy apparently. I doubt he starts sweating Poyer’s extension all that much. 

 

Just one minor correction they will exercise White's option this year but then he doesn't have to play on it until 2021. 2020 will be year 4 of his rookie deal. I don't expect White ever to play on the option year. They will extend him after year 4. One reason they might not rush to do it this year is as the final year of the CBA there are some unique rules about escalation in next year. Essentially it makes it hard to keep White's new deal cost controlled in 2020 and then go up significantly in 2021. Which means you lose a year of cost controlled play and I just don't know if that makes sense. 

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3 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

What do you think is his trade value? I can’t imagine a S nearing 30 who wants a new deal would be that in demand.  The Titans scrapped Kenny Vaccaro a former 1st rounder off the garbage heap.

 

As long as he shows he's still got skill in TC next year I could see some team in need giving a 5th. Beane has gotten better return on some of his trades than most of us ever thought he could. 

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Should be interesting  We've seen Beane tear it down and get out of cap hell. Now we'll see how they maintain the build while keeping the team psyche and cap healthy.  I woud think a salary closer to Hyde's would do it but what  Miss Poyer thinks probably matters more, lol

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7 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

What do you think is his trade value? I can’t imagine a S nearing 30 who wants a new deal would be that in demand.  The Titans scrapped Kenny Vaccaro a former 1st rounder off the garbage heap.

Lol yeah. He's not getting traded.

33 minutes ago, frostbitmic said:

With the money the Bills have to spend this year ... front loading a few contracts could be a long term benefit.

Don't think that matters...unused cap space rolls over anyway.

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4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Whaley did not bring in Poyer. His name was still above the door but it is beyond any reasonable doubt that McDermott ran that offseason lock, stock and barrel. 

 

What I think the Bills will do this season is extend Poyer, extend Dawkins, take up White's 5th year option (I don't expect a contract with Tre until after next season) and try and bring Shaq back if they can. Milano is a possible extension but again they could choose to let him play out. 

 

I'm quite sure that while McDermott was the final "yes" or "no" to getting Poyer and Hyde, he had to rely on Whaley and Whaley's pro scouting crew. Poyer was signed less than 2 months after McDermott was hired; pretending McDermott was running everything on his own from Free Agency to the draft is just silly.

 

McDermott, I have no doubt, had final say... but no chance that offseason was the solo project you imply it was.

 

So that leaves Tre and Milano for next year along with possibly Allen and Edmunds. Pretend Edmunds and Allen have great years next year... do we push them back another year and do 5th year option on them, too?

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I feel they should have him play out this year and then let him go, he is a small frame guy who makes a lot of tackles he can't tackle rb's for much longer, He is listed at 6'0 190 lbs my guess is more like 5'11 180. There is a lot of young talent coming up and I feel unless its a very team friendly deal, he isn't the one you pay the extra money. This guy was in a bad spot before the Bills which is why his deal is so friendly. 

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1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I'm quite sure that while McDermott was the final "yes" or "no" to getting Poyer and Hyde, he had to rely on Whaley and Whaley's pro scouting crew. Poyer was signed less than 2 months after McDermott was hired; pretending McDermott was running everything on his own from Free Agency to the draft is just silly.

 

McDermott, I have no doubt, had final say... but no chance that offseason was the solo project you imply it was.

 

So that leaves Tre and Milano for next year along with possibly Allen and Edmunds. Pretend Edmunds and Allen have great years next year... do we push them back another year and do 5th year option on them, too?

McDermott said he scouted Micah Hyde while DC of the Panthers.

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7 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

So that leaves Tre and Milano for next year along with possibly Allen and Edmunds. Pretend Edmunds and Allen have great years next year... do we push them back another year and do 5th year option on them, too?

 

For Edmunds, yes. That is still the norm across the league. You pick up the 5th year option after year 3 and then you work out the long term deal after year 4 so that they never play a year "on the option." Quarterbacks are the exception - most teams make a decision after year 3 if they think they have their guy (which is why I think this offseason and the 2020 season are THE critical one for Josh Allen). If Josh takes another step in 2020 the Bills will pay him next spring. 

 

I think the Bills would consider making an exception to the pay after year 4 norm for non-Quarterbacks in the case of Tre White (and exceptions have become a little more common in cases where a team can see it has an elite level talent). The problem is where those exceptions exist the extensions without exception always keeps a salary controlled year in the first year of that contract. Because why, as a team, would you give up a chance of an elite guy at a cheap price for a year? So you keep cost control in year 1 and then jump up significantly in year 2 and beyond. The problem for the Bills in doing that this year is the CBA prevents it. It is the final year of the CBA which triggers some specific new rules. One of which is no player signed to a new contract in 2020 can have a salary jump of more than 30% in 2021. That is to prevent teams kicking money into a year that may never happen. 

 

So let me work through a couple of examples to illustrate what I am saying. The only 2016 non QB first rounder to be extended after year 3 was Zeke Elliott. 

Under his rookie deal in 2019 Zeke would have counted $8m against the cap. 

The Cowboys threw $7.5m in new money at him that he gets immediately as a bonus but that money is amortised against the cap and they actually brought his base salary (and therefore cap hit in 2019 down). His cap hit in 2019 was $6.5m (roughly $5.5m of amortised bonus and $1m salary). 

 

Therefore Zeke was cheaper in 2019 on his new deal that on his old deal. Even in situations where a team does give a player a little more money on the first year of a new deal than they would have earned under the rookie (Todd Gurley's extension after 3 year was an example he went from about $5m to about $7m) the first year remains the cheapest and most cost controlled year.

 

Therefore I really don't think it is smart roster management for the Bills to extend Tre this spring unless a new CBA is worked out and the restrictions on jumps from 2020 to 2021 are removed. It will make an extension of Dion tricky too but I don't know that they have much option there because they don't have the 5th year option available to them so you either sign him now or risk him becoming a FA after the season. Poyer is easier because that is a vet deal where you put most of the new money up front and don't commit to paying him too much more in the later years as he goes the wrong side of 30. 

 

To my mind the Bills plan should be:

2020 extensions: Dawkins, Feliciano and Poyer

2021 extensions: White and Allen (possibly Milano but I am not committed to signing Milano yet)

2022 extensions: Edmunds (you might also have to consider the non 1st rounders from the last draft here if any of Ford (as a G), Knox or Singletary have become indespensible). 

2 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

I don’t think he scouted one pending FA player as DC. Probably had multiple on his radar.

 

Poyer and Hyde were McDermott guys brought in to fit HIS system. Whaley did no more than the dirty work with agents.

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9 hours ago, below said:

 

Don't think that matters...unused cap space rolls over anyway.

I think that there is validity to what mic said.  Front loaded contracts this offseason will lessen the blow down the road.  As you compile a talented team the hardest thing to do is keep it together.  When Allen is up for his money the entire landscape changes.  Before him you have Tre and Dawkins.  Signing an older player to a top heavy deal lets you get the best out of him and then, if necessary, cut with a year or two remaining without a huge cap hit.

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37 minutes ago, Cripple Creek said:

I think that there is validity to what mic said.  Front loaded contracts this offseason will lessen the blow down the road.  As you compile a talented team the hardest thing to do is keep it together.  When Allen is up for his money the entire landscape changes.  Before him you have Tre and Dawkins.  Signing an older player to a top heavy deal lets you get the best out of him and then, if necessary, cut with a year or two remaining without a huge cap hit.

 

Yep. General rule of thumb. You front load vet contracts and you back load deals for guys coming off their rookie deal.  

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Poyer is a force, but that inherently leads to some missed tackles when he gets a little reckless.  Really good, not great.  I would love to have him back, but its not the end of the world if hes not.  Looking at whats coming up:

 

White

Hyde

Wallace ( even though im not a big fan)

 

Replace Hughes, Shaq, and probably replace murphy, find a new 3 tech rotation player and hopefully get Star gone or add another 1 tech to rotate in ( maybe Harrison Phillips takes that spot),  there's a lot to factor in.  It will be interesting to see what the priorities are.

 

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On 1/18/2020 at 3:48 AM, JoPoy88 said:

 


silliness. He’s been close to the best at his job for 3 seasons. His tackling looked lazy at times this year for sure. But to say he failed and needs a “rebound” season is preposterous.

Did you watch his blown assignments vs the texans... have you seen him miss repeatedly tackles...have you seen him late on help on run support or help in the passing game.... oh yeah that was him on the blown coverage of the TE in that game...enough of this nonsense that he has been the best at his job....clearly last year he was not and no need to extend him thus you wait it out

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11 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

I don’t think he scouted one pending FA player as DC. Probably had multiple on his radar.

 

Right, so he would have had to rely on others who do in-depth and comprehensive pro scouting in that lead up to Free Agency.

 

Whaley and his scouts would have therefore had a lot of influence in these decisions because they're the ones providing the assessments.

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9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

For Edmunds, yes. That is still the norm across the league. You pick up the 5th year option after year 3 and then you work out the long term deal after year 4 so that they never play a year "on the option." Quarterbacks are the exception - most teams make a decision after year 3 if they think they have their guy (which is why I think this offseason and the 2020 season are THE critical one for Josh Allen). If Josh takes another step in 2020 the Bills will pay him next spring. 

 

I think the Bills would consider making an exception to the pay after year 4 norm for non-Quarterbacks in the case of Tre White (and exceptions have become a little more common in cases where a team can see it has an elite level talent). The problem is where those exceptions exist the extensions without exception always keeps a salary controlled year in the first year of that contract. Because why, as a team, would you give up a chance of an elite guy at a cheap price for a year? So you keep cost control in year 1 and then jump up significantly in year 2 and beyond. The problem for the Bills in doing that this year is the CBA prevents it. It is the final year of the CBA which triggers some specific new rules. One of which is no player signed to a new contract in 2020 can have a salary jump of more than 30% in 2021. That is to prevent teams kicking money into a year that may never happen. 

 

So let me work through a couple of examples to illustrate what I am saying. The only 2016 non QB first rounder to be extended after year 3 was Zeke Elliott. 

Under his rookie deal in 2019 Zeke would have counted $8m against the cap. 

The Cowboys threw $7.5m in new money at him that he gets immediately as a bonus but that money is amortised against the cap and they actually brought his base salary (and therefore cap hit in 2019 down). His cap hit in 2019 was $6.5m (roughly $5.5m of amortised bonus and $1m salary). 

 

Therefore Zeke was cheaper in 2019 on his new deal that on his old deal. Even in situations where a team does give a player a little more money on the first year of a new deal than they would have earned under the rookie (Todd Gurley's extension after 3 year was an example he went from about $5m to about $7m) the first year remains the cheapest and most cost controlled year.

 

Therefore I really don't think it is smart roster management for the Bills to extend Tre this spring unless a new CBA is worked out and the restrictions on jumps from 2020 to 2021 are removed. It will make an extension of Dion tricky too but I don't know that they have much option there because they don't have the 5th year option available to them so you either sign him now or risk him becoming a FA after the season. Poyer is easier because that is a vet deal where you put most of the new money up front and don't commit to paying him too much more in the later years as he goes the wrong side of 30. 

 

To my mind the Bills plan should be:

2020 extensions: Dawkins, Feliciano and Poyer

2021 extensions: White and Allen (possibly Milano but I am not committed to signing Milano yet)

2022 extensions: Edmunds (you might also have to consider the non 1st rounders from the last draft here if any of Ford (as a G), Knox or Singletary have become indespensible). 

 

Solid post, though I disagree with you on Milano. He's been at least as important when he's been on the field as Poyer. I actually think he's been one of our 2 or 3 best defenders in the last couple years, largely due to versatility.

 

I think he's part of that core of players McDermott and Beane were talking about in the end of year PC.

 

I forgot about the CBA ending. I hope it's resolved relatively swiftly and there's not much disruption to that offseason or, God forbid, Regular Season.

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Just now, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Solid post, though I disagree with you on Milano. He's been at least as important when he's been on the field as Poyer. I actually think he's been one of our 2 or 3 best defenders in the last couple years, largely due to versatility.

 

I think he's part of that core of players McDermott and Beane were talking about in the end of year PC.

 

I forgot about the CBA ending. I hope it's resolved relatively swiftly and there's not much disruption to that offseason or, God forbid, Regular Season.

 

I am a big Milano fan. Just think that is a position now you can find in the mid rounds of the draft. A lot of those undersized coverage linebackers are not fits in every scheme. They are perfect for McDermott's. I think those are easier to find than really good safeties with ball skills. I suspect the Bills try and keep both. Just if I was making the plan the post above is what I'd do. 

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3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Right, so he would have had to rely on others who do in-depth and comprehensive pro scouting in that lead up to Free Agency.

 

Whaley and his scouts would have therefore had a lot of influence in these decisions because they're the ones providing the assessments.

I don’t follow. McD said he scouted Hyde as DC, and then when he due to become an FA, he scouted him more and then went after him. 

 

Whaley was involved as GM in name only I suppose. But seeing as the man and his entire scouting group was shown the door immediately after the offseason, I doubt McD gave their independent scouting opinions much credence.

 

There’s a reason a lot of our targets in the 2017 draft were also targets on Carolina’s board reportedly, and it wasn’t because Doug Whaley knew Carolina liked Dawkins, you know?

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On 1/18/2020 at 1:59 AM, Doc Brown said:

Beane rewarding Poyer will send a message to the team that if you consistently produce for us you'll be rewarded.  I see an extension similar to Hughes at the beginning of last year.  Maybe a three year extension to lock him up for four seasons until he's 33 with a low dead cap amount his final year.  Something like a three year extension for 34 million (24 million guaranteed).  That puts him at about 9 million a year.

not worth it.....but if the cap room is there and it doesnt mess up other signings...

5 hours ago, ILBillsfan said:

Did you watch his blown assignments vs the texans... have you seen him miss repeatedly tackles...have you seen him late on help on run support or help in the passing game.... oh yeah that was him on the blown coverage of the TE in that game...enough of this nonsense that he has been the best at his job....clearly last year he was not and no need to extend him thus you wait it out

yep not a great yr....not even good...C+..B- if feeling very generous

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  • 1 month later...

https://theathletic.com/1650815/2020/03/03/bills-thoughts-from-the-combine-wide-receiver-chase-and-shaq-lawson/

Bills thoughts from the combine: Wide receiver chase and Shaq Lawson

By Matthew Fairburn Mar 3, 2020

 

5. The Bills have some extensions of their own players to get done in the coming months, but Beane made a point to say those have typically happened after the draft. The next few months are busy with free agency, pro days and then the draft, so it’s tough to find the time to dedicate to contract talks. Agents are also playing a waiting game at the moment with the CBA talks ongoing.

 

At the moment, it sounds like extensions for Dion Dawkins, Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White are a matter of when and not if. The Bills view all three as part of their long-term core and want to reward their own. The one who will be interesting to watch over the next few months is Jordan Poyer. He’s entering the final season of his deal but will be 29 years old in April. He and Micah Hyde have been the lifeblood of one of the league’s best secondaries and both have dramatically outperformed their current contracts. Pay attention to the players the Bills add in free agency and the draft because it might provide some clues about how they view Poyer long-term. He’s going to get a healthy raise one way or another. The Bills must decide if they want to be the ones to give it to him.

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On 1/18/2020 at 12:23 AM, GunnerBill said:

I am all but certain the Bills are going to pay Poyer. If they don't he is going to hold out. 

What good would that do him? He is still under contract and not getting younger. If anything I would think he would play out his final year trying to prove them wrong and then leave in free agency.

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2 minutes ago, Turk71 said:

What good would that do him? He is still under contract and not getting younger. If anything I would think he would play out his final year trying to prove them wrong and then leave in free agency.

 

Either the Bills would pay him or trade him to someone who will. 

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5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Either the Bills would pay him or trade him to someone who will. 

 

I hope it’s the Bills. I like the connection they seem to have back there. (One certain misstep still hurts, but that’s life sometimes.) 

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This creates a tricky situation as Micah still has 2 years at 6.75m per.....do you give him a raise too?

 

Poyer deserves a raise from his 4m a year deal ….but how much?

 

With pick 22 and a couple of very good safeties projected in rnd 1( McKinney and Delpit) things get complicated quickly.

 

Sure the Bills need a WR but this draft is deep and a trade up in rnd 2 is possible.

 

So glad I am not GM as these are very tough decisions.

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1 hour ago, JMF2006 said:

This creates a tricky situation as Micah still has 2 years at 6.75m per.....do you give him a raise too?

 

Poyer deserves a raise from his 4m a year deal ….but how much?

 

With pick 22 and a couple of very good safeties projected in rnd 1( McKinney and Delpit) things get complicated quickly.

 

Sure the Bills need a WR but this draft is deep and a trade up in rnd 2 is possible.

 

So glad I am not GM as these are very tough decisions.


My first thought was along those lines.  If you pay Poyer, then you have to redo Hyde’s deal too.  Both have to wait for the new CBA to be approved, but you can have the lesser of the two safeties making more than the better one.  Currently neither is making what he is worth though.

 

 

11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Either the Bills would pay him or trade him to someone who will. 


Yup.  Poyer’s power play would be to hold out for most of the season and return for at least 6 games to get his accrued season and make it to FA.  I don’t know that he’d do that, but I also wouldn’t expect him back here in 2021 if we don’t extend him before the season is out (unless the CBA renewal prevents it).  I’d wager that it gets done along with a new Hyde deal. 

Edited by BarleyNY
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