My 2 cents on the deep balls

[Antonio]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think you are having trouble comprehending the OP.  This is what he said:

When running deep patterns I want them (the WR) to always push downfield as much as they can instead of crossing (post) or going to the sideline (corner), so after the break when you gain that step on the DB instead of going 45° to either side, I teach them to keep pushing forward and slightly going to their patter(n). This helps the QB so that he doesn’t have to make the perfect throw and if it is a little off it is easier for the WO to adjust towards the ball. This helps especially with fast WOs like Brown and Foster. Even when you are crossing form the back side of the play to the front, it is better to go up so you can always keep the ball in front of you.

 

The OP is suggesting that the WR follow a straight line in their routes, not that they round them off.

 

Thanks LOL exactly right!

[BringBackFlutie]

2 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

Yes, it seems I see wide open receivers deep every non-Bills game I watch. They usually slow up for the ball. But Josh apparently needs to hit them perfectly in stride for some reason. Is this a scheme issue?

 

That's what I'm saying!  A lot of wide open guys all over the place, and their QBs just putting it in the area, and the receiver adjusting to it.  Seems like most of our plays, if the ball isn't placed perfectly, the receiver's not catching it, because there's not a whole lot of separation.  In some cases, the separation is happening at the end of the route, and Josh is overthrowing the WR, instead of overthrowing the coverage.  On other plays, there ARE those wide open guys, and Josh is still throwing like they're going to break downfield and still catch it in perfect stride.  It seems like both a scheme and QB/WR communication issue.  There are so many elements to this, and I don't think it's just "Josh needs to learn how to loft the ball to hit the receivers in stride."  They need to make a concerted effort to get WRs downfield in single coverage and work on the nuances of timing, depth of release, touch, when to overthrow coverage (NOT THE WR) vs throw to an area.

[Antonio]

28 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

I like Josh but the deep ball issue is entirely on him. He is not throwing a catchable ball. There is not enough arc. Brown ran a perfect route across the field and heading to the pylon. He was open by two steps. That's an easy throw and needs to be a TD. 

The Foster throw was closer and more difficult but still could have been better.

This is all on Josh. Last year he threw the 50/50 ball several times. This year he has not put the ball in play. It's fine from a turnover standpoint. But the NFL is about taking advantage of matchups and mistakes. He needs to capitalize on those few moments a game. He has shown great improvement on interception rate the last 8 weeks(still needs work on fumbles), now he just needs to be a little more opportunistic.

 

I agree the first one to Brown is 100% on Josh, that was an easy throw. But what happens when de wind moves the ball? If you are cutting to flat you wont be able to adjust. 

[Mrbojanglezs]

Allen's arm is just too strong. He is amazing on throws that call for "on a rope" throws but is not good on anything that requires arc. When he only needs 50% of his arm strength to throw a 30 yard pass and he needs to control trajectory its difficult for him. He needs to work on it A LOT in the off season.

 

He needs to train himself to play the entire game at 50-70% arm strength all the time and ONLY throw it hard when he has a straight line rope shot.

[2003Contenders]

15 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

The problem is not the wrs. They're getting open. You answered your own question. ARC & TOUCH. I've been screaming this all season and apparently Dorsey and Daboll either aren't teaching Josh this or he's stubborn? It's an easy fix.....

 

Dan Fouts talked about this in both Bills games that he called this season, including Sunday's game against the Ravens.

 

While he pointed out that the main issue is with Josh not putting enough arc on the deep passes, he noted that it is impossible to do so with gusty winds (as was the case early in the game on Sunday when those 2-3 missed deep throws occurred). One of the great myths about deep passes is equating them with arm strength. This is not the case. In a way, a QB like Josh with top-3 level QB arm strength has to work to put greater touch on these deep passes.

 

As an aside... Fouts is an interesting case in point. Despite all those passes, yards and TDs he accumulated in the Air Coryell system, he actually had a noodle for an arm (think Chad Pennington). What he had was nice touch, though (also, of course, mild San Diego climate, some fantastic receivers and a HoF pass-catching TE). When he had to play in blustery conditions (see the 1981 AFC Championship Game in Cinci), he didn't have the arm strength to get the job done.

[ngbills]

Do people watch other NFL games? The balls we are talking about with Josh are not even close. Its not the case that a WR is running a bad route or anything. They are egregiously bad balls. Lucky for Josh he has a lot of other positives attributes because at this point his deep ball is the worst in the league and something you dont see from a lot of NFL QB's. Sit down on Sunday and watch some other teams play. You wont see a lot of the deep misses the same way you see from Josh. Wont also see the athleticism or arm strength from a lot. That is the trade at this point. 

[Best Williams Available]

Josh’s accuracy at 10-20 yards has been solid/improved; 20-40 not so much. As someone mentioned, he probably can chuck is 50-60 yards perfectly fine (max arm strength). The “deep” ball range, which appears to be between flicking his wrist and gunning it, is hard for him because it’s half max. Fine tuning it will require him to know his arm strength better and practice repeatedly. Most QBs can hit those 30-40 yarders easy because it’s their max. Perhaps the solution is send guys on 50 (not 30) yard routes into the wind (hope for line protection).

 

It also seems to me that Daboll is calling bombs much more frequently at home v on the road. If so, why? Conditions are usually harder in B’lo. JA’s home v away stats show he’s worse at home and I wonder if this is partly why.

 

We might need Roscoe Parrish or Marquis Goodwin back.

[Tatonka68]

Why not let John Brown throw a deep ball to Foster ??

[Antonio]

Ok I did my best LOL I can´t find another way.

 

Red is the rout as he ran it.

Yellow is what I am suggesting, push downfield insted of cutting to flat. 

Brown.vpj

[JROC INTEL]

I'll tell you what I see. Let me know your opinions. I see the routes not crossing the field nearly as much as I'd like. Maybe with more long across the field type routes, Josh can use his strength to get the ball to a WR rather than try to put it over the top / shoulder. It seems most of these deep shots have just been go routes straight down the field. With more cross field routes, the receiver will have a better look at the ball as well. 

[Antonio]

The point is, if you are the OC of the Buffalo Bills, how do you help Josh Allen? What do you do to help bim connect to his WR that are running open?

 

Yes, Josh is not putting the ball where it needs to be. That is what I said at the beginning, he is inaccurate on those deep shots just as my QB. 

 

My solution, run the routes pushing downfield insted of cutting 45° to either side. Even when you are crossing from outside in, do it pushing forward, try to go deeper. You already have a step or to on the DB. That way the QB´s window to throw is biger.

[zow2]

I've already said my peace on this issue.. but I will point out the last 3-4 home games have been especially impacted by winds.   Last season we got lucky on Sunday's with mostly calm winds.  

[Big Gun]

My $.02 is Josh has such a big arm he has trouble taking something off of it. 

 

He can chuck it 80 yards, check

 

He can zip it on a rope in at 30 - 40 yards, check

 

He has a lot of trouble laying it in and dropping it into the bucket at 50 yards, check 

 

It is absolutely something he can work at and get better at. Would rather have a QB that has to reign it in than a QB that has a noodle arm. 

 

Kind of reminds me of a pitcher who gets a comebacker and he tries to lob it over to first base and it goes way over the first basemans head. Taking something off of it is hard to do in regards to guys who have extremely huge arms. 

Edited December 11, 2019 by pop gun

[section122]

I'm trying to find video but I had a theory about Josh's accuracy and I think Sunday proved it correct.  If anyone can find a video of every throw I would appreciate it I had no luck.

 

Josh is very accurate when he completes his throwing motion fully.  He gets in trouble when he tries to get too "cute."  When he is trying to place the ball instead of just letting it rip it gets away from him.  Much like when a golfer tries to slow their swing down or take a half swing and gets themselves in trouble.  His full throwing motion comes down as he completes it.  When he throws long many times he stops himself halfway and doesn't complete the motion.

 

It is amazing that I can't find a highlight package of missed throws or really any highlights that include the missed throws.

 

[Best Williams Available]

1 hour ago, Mrbojanglezs said:

Allen's arm is just too strong. He is amazing on throws that call for "on a rope" throws but is not good on anything that requires arc. When he only needs 50% of his arm strength to throw a 30 yard pass and he needs to control trajectory its difficult for him. He needs to work on it A LOT in the off season.

 

He needs to train himself to play the entire game at 50-70% arm strength all the time and ONLY throw it hard when he has a straight line rope shot.

He should start by losing his TD celebration where he chucks it full arm into the stadium field-level walls. He should only chuck it 1/2 arm in there.

[jrober38]

2 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

Sometimes you can adjust their running stride, sometimes it's just a matter of lengthening the space between your legs when your run which means you're taking less strides and therefore faster. Yet it might not happen overnight either since once you run a certain way one develops the muscle memory is there but have to retrain it. 

 

Or the QB could just throw more accurate passes. 

[ngbills]

58 minutes ago, section122 said:

I'm trying to find video but I had a theory about Josh's accuracy and I think Sunday proved it correct.  If anyone can find a video of every throw I would appreciate it I had no luck.

 

Josh is very accurate when he completes his throwing motion fully.  He gets in trouble when he tries to get too "cute."  When he is trying to place the ball instead of just letting it rip it gets away from him.  Much like when a golfer tries to slow their swing down or take a half swing and gets themselves in trouble.  His full throwing motion comes down as he completes it.  When he throws long many times he stops himself halfway and doesn't complete the motion.

 

It is amazing that I can't find a highlight package of missed throws or really any highlights that include the missed throws.

 

They used to post all the throws videos on the Bills website. Interestingly that has stopped...

 

Your point is valid and much of what young QB's do over and over again. If you played QB you remember the boring drills to get your feet right, to turn your body right, position your throwing angle, etc. It is discipline and habit. It is one of the things that separates a good athlete from a QB. You need that discipline to and attention to detail. Not just rely on being an athlete with a strong arm. 

[ColoradoBills]

The deep ball problem is mostly on Josh.  I don't think it will get worked out this year but I do hope he hits on a few before the playoffs.

Going into the off season I think the long ball should be a big part of his workouts.  His big arm is a weapon and needs to become a

concern for the defenses.

 

The deep threat will open the intermediate area of the field too.  I feel confident he can improve in this area with the right coaching

and practice.  Once he does, watch out!

[The Jokeman]

9 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

The deep ball problem is mostly on Josh.  I don't think it will get worked out this year but I do hope he hits on a few before the playoffs.

Going into the off season I think the long ball should be a big part of his workouts.  His big arm is a weapon and needs to become a

concern for the defenses.

 

The deep threat will open the intermediate area of the field too.  I feel confident he can improve in this area with the right coaching

and practice.  Once he does, watch out!

Hopefully Josh and that WRs workout together in the offseason. 

[colin]

good thread.

 

i was going to make a joke about "my two balls on the deep cents" but thought better of it.

 

carry on.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

4 hours ago, BringBackFlutie said:

No I was thinking this exact thing last night.  On the Brown and Knox throws it looked like they could've gotten up under it if they weren't fading to one side or the other.  On the Beasley throw, he or Josh or both of them have to realize that Beasley had a clean break to the outside, and if Josh throws it anywhere in that vicinity, Beasley has a ton of room to make the catch easily (I call these KC Chiefs plays).  Instead, Josh throws it over top, which is a much lower percentage, and Beasley is no where near it.  Noticing these things just made it more frustrating to me, because then it seems it's not just a QB problem, but an overall problem with him and his receivers, understanding angles, depth of coverage, when to throw, when to look for it, etc.

 

the one that drew PI? 

Edited December 11, 2019 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[Mr. WEO]

So this means OP is "getting looks" as an OC in the NFL now?

[Bing Bong]

It's not our WR's build.. we settled for decent WR's as a major upgrade to the veritable crap we trotted out last year. They're still not good enough. Plenty of small guys crush it on deep balls, Steve Smith Sr, our guys need to beat their man better. JA needs speed more than anything.

 

Then he doesn't have to worry so much about where it lands. It's better to overthrow than underthrow, and when the CB is tight on the WR JA is going to do the right thing and err on the side of overthrow.

[BringBackFlutie]

43 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

the one that drew PI? 

 

Nah, I think it was the first one, which may have been Knox and not Beasley. 

 

This one.

 

 

 

Edited December 11, 2019 by BringBackFlutie

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

6 minutes ago, BringBackFlutie said:

 

Nah, I think it was the first one, which may have been Knox and not Beasley. 

 

This one.

 

https://twitter.com/YardsPerPass/status/1204507135775793152

 

 

You’re completely right Allen can throw a laser (what he’s good at) for Beasley continuing to the sideline. 

 

By turning back up field it actually allowed coverage to close the separation anyway. A perfect pass probably still gets broken up. 

 

Also really annoying how easily ravens covered everything with 4 DBs most of the game. 

[In Summary]

For deep completions, the Kelly to Lofton connection was memorable.  Kelly really put some arc on his deep balls.  Two hall-of-famers playing catch.

 

[LeGOATski]

21 minutes ago, BringBackFlutie said:

 

Nah, I think it was the first one, which may have been Knox and not Beasley. 

 

This one.

 

 

 

If Allen just leads the receiver, the DB has no chance to make a play on that.

 

Just a horrible throw. Pressure was about to get to him.

[BringBackFlutie]

46 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

You’re completely right Allen can throw a laser (what he’s good at) for Beasley continuing to the sideline. 

 

By turning back up field it actually allowed coverage to close the separation anyway. A perfect pass probably still gets broken up. 

 

Also really annoying how easily ravens covered everything with 4 DBs most of the game. 

Right so we all lament the missed deep throw on that one, which would've ended in, at least, a field goal, but there are SO MANY other ways to exploit those deep routes that are HIGHER percentage.  I don't know if that's comforting or frustrating, though.  On one hand, it's not like this game of pinning our hopes on Allen making one very specific, very low percentage throw (which will smooth out, but never be perfect, over time).  On the other hand, that's an easy thing to read that he and Beasley should be getting by now, ESPECIALLY if the plan A strategy for that game was to get over the top.  There's just so much that broke down on offense that didn't need to, DESPITE the missed over-the-shoulder throws (we're now down to what, 2 overthrows and 2 drops, if you consider this one miscommunication?).  It's maddening.  It's not that I don't think it'll be fixed, either.  It's just that I want it to get fixed soon, and at this point I think Josh Allen's head is spinning with everything he's absorbed this year.

Edited December 11, 2019 by BringBackFlutie

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Josh overthrows his targets time and again.  And in the last game, the wind and Doboll's play calling didn't help.

[cd1]

7 hours ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

What happened to "fearless"? 

Fearless is not scared of the interception.

He is too tight in these big games.

Coaches have to correct this. 

 

Sometimes I wonder if Daboll doesn't get the "Big Games" in his head. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

1 hour ago, Formerly Allan in MD said:

Josh overthrows his targets time and again.  And in the last game, the wind and Doboll's play calling didn't help.

 

Right.

 

Any wide reciever running a route requiring a bucket drop on the Bills is a wasted route. 

 

Anytime thats the first or second read it’s probably a wasted play. 

 

The guy throws ropes and lasers allover the field pretty accurately so fricken use that!!!

 

Stop forcing any routes that require Peyton like touch  passes or Michael Thomas / Keenan Allen /Tyreek like WRs. It’s low percentage to begin with and on this team it’s no percentage.  

 

Really irritating taking 30 yard shots on 3rd and 4. 

[billspro]

8 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

I don't think this makes much sense.

 

The shortest route from point A (the QB) to point B (where the ball lands) is a straight line.

 

Pushing farther up field in an attempt to round their route off isn't going to accomplish anything if they already can't get to the ball running in a straight line.

 

If Allen was under throwing these passes, this would make sense, but there's nothing you can do to a route to make things work if the QB is consistently throwing the ball 5 yards too far. 

 

100%.

 

I'd guess Allen has missed 8-10 deep balls to guys running free behind the coverage this year.

 

He missed three of them in the first quarter against the Ravens alone.

 

Those 8-10 plays likely would have resulted in a bunch of touchdowns. 

 

If he hits those plays we are taking about an elite QB this year. Hopefully, he can work on this in the offseason.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, jrober38 said:

Again, how do you coach someone to run faster?

 

https://www.beebehouseofspeed.com/

 

You don't coach it, but athletic trainers claim that speed can be improved up to a point. 

 

For those who don't remember Don Beebe (aka "white Flash")

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Beebe

 

'Zo Alexander ran a 5.17 40 pre-draft.  He claims he's way faster now - I don't remember what he said but it was lower than 4.7s.

Part of it is weight - he weighed close to 300 lbs at the Combine and plays at 245 today.  Part of it is muscle mass.   And part of it is training for fast twitch/burst.

 

[Rocket94]

6 hours ago, Antonio said:

The point is, if you are the OC of the Buffalo Bills, how do you help Josh Allen? What do you do to help bim connect to his WR that are running open?

 

Yes, Josh is not putting the ball where it needs to be. That is what I said at the beginning, he is inaccurate on those deep shots just as my QB. 

 

My solution, run the routes pushing downfield insted of cutting 45° to either side. Even when you are crossing from outside in, do it pushing forward, try to go deeper. You already have a step or to on the DB. That way the QB´s window to throw is biger.

Some of Allen's throws appeared to me as nonchalant zips up the field. On a couple of occasions, Allen had time to throw and he still threw the ball in to another orbit. What about his concentration? Is he day dreaming about women?

Edited December 11, 2019 by Rocket94

[ngbills]

23 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

https://www.beebehouseofspeed.com/

 

You don't coach it, but athletic trainers claim that speed can be improved up to a point. 

 

For those who don't remember Don Beebe (aka "white Flash")

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Beebe

 

'Zo Alexander ran a 5.17 40 pre-draft.  He claims he's way faster now - I don't remember what he said but it was lower than 4.7s.

Part of it is weight - he weighed close to 300 lbs at the Combine and plays at 245 today.  Part of it is muscle mass.   And part of it is training for fast twitch/burst.

 

Please please please do not use Zo as an example of this. He was a 300lb DT in college. Of course he ran a 5.17 40. Anyone that loses 50+ pounds will get way faster. 

 

Most guys will learn not get much faster after entering the NFL. That usually happens as they progress through high school and college.

Edited December 12, 2019 by ngbills

[Not at the table Karlos]

8 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

I think they’ve over corrected.  

 

Bills dont have a legit deep ball wr and seems like josh is overthrowing everything rather than under throwing. Because no one on the team is beating a corner to the ball. I noticed he’s making very few risky passes these days. 

 

For contrast, Watch the Steelers this weekend.

 

duck will just slog it up and there are several guys on that team that will come down with the ball. 

 

 

John Brown has been a legit deep ball receiver his entire career

[Not at the table Karlos]

1 hour ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Right.

 

Any wide reciever running a route requiring a bucket drop on the Bills is a wasted route. 

 

Anytime thats the first or second read it’s probably a wasted play. 

 

The guy throws ropes and lasers allover the field pretty accurately so fricken use that!!!

 

Stop forcing any routes that require Peyton like touch  passes or Michael Thomas / Keenan Allen /Tyreek like WRs. It’s low percentage to begin with and on this team it’s no percentage.  

 

Really irritating taking 30 yard shots on 3rd and 4. 

It seems most of not all of Joshs completed deep balls last year were deep crossers or posts where he could zip it in there. Some reason they’re missing from the offense this year and we run a lot of vertical routes which he struggles with. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 hours ago, Antonio said:

Ok I did my best LOL I can´t find another way.

 

Red is the rout as he ran it.

Yellow is what I am suggesting, push downfield insted of cutting to flat. 

Brown.vpj 4.33 kB · 21 downloads

 

Any chance you could convert that to an mp4?  Caveat I do not have video project editor software and can not vouch for the instructions in that link.

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

59 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

John Brown has been a legit deep ball receiver his entire career

So was Lee Evans, until he wasn’t. Smoke isn’t running 4.3 anymore. 

[WideNine]

Allen had a tough game and he needs to improve, but he needs some help from the rest of his offense and coaching staff too.

 

The blitz got in his head early and threw off much of the poise and timing he had shown against Dallas. The result was dirt balls, balls thrown behind, or throws simply to areas where the receiver would be a split second later.

 

All QBs get worse when the blitz is getting to them. When pass pro broke down Daboll tried a few designed rollouts, but Baltimore has very good sideline to sideline speed and defenders were breathing down Allen's neck on those and our receivers could not get away from the Raven's coverage downfield.

 

Screens had some success in the 2nd half, but I think we needed to have reliable dump off options (that Allen uses) to Singletary, Yeldon, or a TE earlier when protections broke down.

 

The line needs to start games better as it was a jailbreak early and often. Also I was not happy with Knox whiffing on his block. Grab that defender, and drag him into the damn turf and take the holding call. It's preferable to your QB getting lit up from the blind side, hurt, and fumbling the ball.

 

They did not play very well in the first half, but started to have a better understanding of what protections to use in the second half. By that time the damage was done and some plays were left on the field. Also, the clock in Allen's head was in hurry up and get the ball out of my hand mode, or run for my life and throw it away mode.

 

They also tended to bring pressure from the side that Brown was on because they saw that Josh had a tendency to go to his reads away from the pressure side. Teams that can play man and match our receivers will continue to follow this blitzing blueprint.

 

Daboll needs to start the game with scripted plays that require short drops till Allen and this team finds its rhythm and starts better matching protections to the blitz packages later in games. Teams will continue to play man and jam/grab our receivers to slow them and also impact timing so longer drops by Allen play into their hands and let those speed rushers abuse our edges.

 

Borq needs to do a better job punting and helping to flip the field too. 

 

Regarding deep balls (thrown)

 

Not too many QBs light up New Era with deep balls when the winds are gusting. Lamar's one deep pass was a blown cover 0 with no one deep, so he could just lob it up to left field and let his TE run underneath it.

 

Great read on his part, so not taking that away. IMO, when the winds are like that, I would tell Allen screw "touch" and throw it on a rope to your receiver if you are going to go deep. Rather see those passes setting their gloves on fire than the overly safe overthrows he makes in a stiff gale because he is perhaps worried too much - about the pass dying, falling short, and getting intercepted. Just a theory...as I am out of other ideas other than keep working on it.

 

If we know anything about this kid it is that he has work ethic, and a fire to be the best. Allen will keep working, and I think Daboll has been demonstrating more plasticity than I gave him credit for in his approach to game planning, adjustments, developing Allen, and developing this offense. They will bounce back.

 

This team and Allen have come much further than I ever hoped for this year and were a play away from maybe taking that game away from the team that is playing some of the best football in the NFL right now.

 

On to the Steelers, where they hopefully get to meet Josh the surgeon that played on Thanksgiving; Our DARPA lab-enhanced 2.0 version of Big Ben.

 

Still relevant in December - Go Bills!