Joshua Patrick Allen, aka Mr 3rd down

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, VW82 said:

Wait so these numbers are before considering 3rd & long conversions on rushes? Because he’s definitely had some of those too. Anyone know where he ranks on 3rd down in general?

 

When you see stats like this it really makes you wonder why this offense hasn’t scored more points.

 

It does.  In general it seems to be a combination of untimely penalties and getting stalled out - just not converting - at the wrong time.

[Big Turk]

8 minutes ago, VW82 said:

Wait so these numbers are before considering 3rd & long conversions on rushes? Because he’s definitely had some of those too. Anyone know where he ranks on 3rd down in general?

 

When you see stats like this it really makes you wonder why this offense hasn’t scored more points.

 

Yeah these are only passing numbers. Allen is a baller...i know he still has a lot to work on but he does things well that very few other QBs do...

 

Convert 3rd and long and play lights out in the 4th Q and lead comebacks and game winning drives.

[Scott7975]

9 minutes ago, VW82 said:

Wait so these numbers are before considering 3rd & long conversions on rushes? Because he’s definitely had some of those too. Anyone know where he ranks on 3rd down in general?

 

When you see stats like this it really makes you wonder why this offense hasn’t scored more points.

 

Yes this stat is passing only. Our overall 3rd down conversion rate is 38.03%.  Ranks 16th in the NFL.  Over the last 3 games it is 41.86% which is good for 7th in the league compared to everyone else's last 3 games.  Last year we were 31.63% so pretty good improvement.

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 minutes ago, WhoTom said:

I know the hit was unavoidable, but he seemed to drive Josh into the ground. Using the TB12 standard, that's egregious RtP.

 

A valid point, but what did the ref say?  "Young feller, you're too new to get that call" or something?

[VW82]

10 minutes ago, WhoTom said:

 

Total 3rd down conversion rate is 38% this year. Apparently, we suck on 3rd and short.

 

I don’t have the numbers to back this up but it feels like we get blitzed more on 3rd and short to med so maybe that has something to do with it. I still think we have work to do recognizing and handling the blitz in general. 
 

Also, I’m still pro Morse signing but he’s not really helping us on those 3rd and short runs.

Edited November 26, 2019 by VW82

[Scott7975]

1 minute ago, VW82 said:

I don’t have the numbers to back this up but it feels like we get blitzed more on 3rd and short to med so maybe that has something to do with it. 
 

Also, I’m still pro Morse signing but he’s not really helping us on those 3rd and short runs.

 

Its also that sometimes we go deep on 3rd and short in the past and we know how that has worked out in the past.

[John from Riverside]

I actually thought he was pretty good on 3rd down last year 2....we had a LOT of long conversions called back from penalties.

 

The nice thing about this?  Josh Allen has just SCRATCHED his potential.....he can get much much better

[Blank Stare]

One of my absolute favorite traits of Allen. I feel like he always gives us a chance on third down regardless of distance. Whether it’s his arm strength or competitiveness, he delivers. Glad to see the stats support the eyeball test. 

[Scott7975]

Here is where everyone ranks btw.... http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=047&type=Passing&year=

[VW82]

9 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Its also that sometimes we go deep on 3rd and short in the past and we know how that has worked out in the past.

I don’t mind taking these shots on 2nd and short. We’ve gone for the gusto in some weird spots on 3rd down this year. It’s one of my main beefs with Dabol.

 

Edit: you could it’s the reason we lost the Browns game. Complete one more five yard play and maybe we make the kick.

Edited November 26, 2019 by VW82

[WhoTom]

11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

A valid point, but what did the ref say?  "Young feller, you're too new  not Tom Brady to get that call" or something?

 

Fixed it.

[LSHMEAB]

I've noticed this trend and it's a good one. I'll be THAT guy and say he needs to be more efficient on 3rd and short. It is strange that I "feel" more confident on 3rd and 8 than I do on 3rd and 3. Since we don't really have a great run game, it generally comes to down to JA having to make a play.

 

My personal opinion is that so much of what goes on with Allen is psychological. He has zero physical limitations. It seems as though he's trying to make a play on 3rd and long and trying to avoid a mistake on 3rd and short. It APPEARS that way anyhow.

 

He's an extremely bright guy, but sometimes I think he needs to chuck that IQ out of the stadium and stop over analyzing. He's done this on 3rd and long since day one. Since he knows it's not really a down and distance he's expected to convert, his mentality is to make a play as opposed to not screwing up. Part of that mentality falls on the shoulder of the coach's.

 

The past two weeks have been very encouraging in this regard. He's out there making plays instead of avoiding mistakes. If he's able to harness that mentality full time, there's really no reason to think he won't be a franchise guy.

[SomeDudeAtHome]

6 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

another reason he reminds me so much of a young big ben.... living on the outskirts of stiller country I've seen a ton of that guy and for years fans of that team were more confident in 3rd and long situations than there were on a typical 3rd and 3. 

 

This is true for me. 3rd and 6+ I know they're passing and feel confident we'll get a first. 3rd and 3 or less I'm thinking to myself "Ok what kinda of gadget play is Daboll gonna call and screw up" or that I'll be watching Gore get stuffed trying to go up the middle. I love Gore btw but we are not good at running up the middle for some reason.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

43 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

So, can I nickname him JP? ?‍♂️

Too soon??

 

??

[Scott7975]

39 minutes ago, VW82 said:

I don’t mind taking these shots on 2nd and short. We’ve gone for the gusto in some weird spots on 3rd down this year. It’s one of my main beefs with Dabol.

 

Edit: you could it’s the reason we lost the Browns game. Complete one more five yard play and maybe we make the kick.

 

I don't like it either.  However, it's one of those things that if he hits them it looks genius instead.

[Bookie Man]

JP Allen!?! 

[The Real Buffalo Joe]

6 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

FFS...  why am I just now learning his initials are JP? 

Marketing genius Russ Brandon would have never let this slip. #JustSayin

[WideNine]

7 hours ago, Logic said:

For the past 20 years, 3rd and 8+ for the Bills basically felt like an automatic punt.

Ever since Allen came to town -- not so much.

They say a quarterback makes his money on 3rd downs and in the 4th quarter. If that be the case, Allen has a bright future.

 

For years we have been gifted an uneven amount of penalties on our first 2 downs that put us in 3rd and likely fail situations.

 

We still get too many of those, but unlike our QBs past Josh converts them. It is like 3rd and longs amp him up.

 

 

[eball]

Mr. 3rd down, Mr. 4th quarter...our boy simply has the "clutch" gene.

[billspro]

7 hours ago, Logic said:

For the past 20 years, 3rd and 8+ for the Bills basically felt like an automatic punt.

Ever since Allen came to town -- not so much.

They say a quarterback makes his money on 3rd downs and in the 4th quarter. If that be the case, Allen has a bright future.

 

? it’s also the reason we have had so many long drives this year. We have a chance to win every game with Allen at QB. This could be a franchise altering win on Thanksgiving. The Bills have not won a game this big in a long time.

[MJS]

I definately don't miss the days of knowing we WOULDN'T convert anything more than 3rd and 5.

[Pokebball]

1 hour ago, SomeDudeAtHome said:

 

This is true for me. 3rd and 6+ I know they're passing and feel confident we'll get a first. 3rd and 3 or less I'm thinking to myself "Ok what kinda of gadget play is Daboll gonna call and screw up" or that I'll be watching Gore get stuffed trying to go up the middle. I love Gore btw but we are not good at running up the middle for some reason.

Allen kills it on 3rd and less than one.  It's that 1.1 - 3 where the Bills struggle.  Power formation doesn't bring much power.  I think we should spread it out and let Gore or Singletary find the crease.

[Beast]

Not a fan of the JP initials.

 

Can he change his middle name to Ralph or something?

 

JR Allen sounds better.

[CorkScrewHill]

7 hours ago, Real McCoy said:

Serious ?

 

Why can't we play like every play is 3rd down then? Daboll opens the playbook so much more effective on these 3rd and longs and let's Josh play to his strength.

It appears it is a plot with Daboll .. hence why he calls a run play on 80% of 1st downs .. just trying to get us in 3rd and long. Seriously it is sooo maddening that he is such a vanilla play caller on 1st down

[VW82]

2 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

I've noticed this trend and it's a good one. I'll be THAT guy and say he needs to be more efficient on 3rd and short. It is strange that I "feel" more confident on 3rd and 8 than I do on 3rd and 3. Since we don't really have a great run game, it generally comes to down to JA having to make a play.

 

My personal opinion is that so much of what goes on with Allen is psychological. He has zero physical limitations. It seems as though he's trying to make a play on 3rd and long and trying to avoid a mistake on 3rd and short. It APPEARS that way anyhow.

 

He's an extremely bright guy, but sometimes I think he needs to chuck that IQ out of the stadium and stop over analyzing. He's done this on 3rd and long since day one. Since he knows it's not really a down and distance he's expected to convert, his mentality is to make a play as opposed to not screwing up. Part of that mentality falls on the shoulder of the coach's.

 

The past two weeks have been very encouraging in this regard. He's out there making plays instead of avoiding mistakes. If he's able to harness that mentality full time, there's really no reason to think he won't be a franchise guy.

 

Is it psychological or is just that teams are blitzing more on 3rd and short to mid yardage, and we're not very good at recognizing or dealing with the blitz? Teams don't seem to blitz us as often on 3rd and long, instead electing to keep more guys in coverage which I think is one of the reasons Josh has more success. I don't know this for certain so maybe someone on here with the actual stats can comment but that's what I'm seeing. I agree our short yardage run game is not good enough.   

[JoshAllin]

This why the bills D loves him and plays well

[Alphadawg7]

But I thought after the Cleveland game TSW was convinced we needed a new QB and Beane sucked?  
 

LOL at all that non sense 

[LSHMEAB]

33 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

Is it psychological or is just that teams are blitzing more on 3rd and short to mid yardage, and we're not very good at recognizing or dealing with the blitz? 

I really don't think it's a blitz pickup issue. His headscratching throws occur more often on 3rd and short (oft times sans much pressure) from my vantage point. The whole psychological thing is purely an OPINION I've formed based on observation. 

 

I generally defer to data, but there certainly appears to be a psychological element with JA.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

FFS...  why am I just now learning his initials are JP? 

 

Shhhhh.....

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

I've noticed this trend and it's a good one. I'll be THAT guy and say he needs to be more efficient on 3rd and short. It is strange that I "feel" more confident on 3rd and 8 than I do on 3rd and 3. Since we don't really have a great run game, it generally comes to down to JA having to make a play.

 

My personal opinion is that so much of what goes on with Allen is psychological. He has zero physical limitations. It seems as though he's trying to make a play on 3rd and long and trying to avoid a mistake on 3rd and short. It APPEARS that way anyhow.

 

He's an extremely bright guy, but sometimes I think he needs to chuck that IQ out of the stadium and stop over analyzing. He's done this on 3rd and long since day one. Since he knows it's not really a down and distance he's expected to convert, his mentality is to make a play as opposed to not screwing up. Part of that mentality falls on the shoulder of the coach's.

 

The past two weeks have been very encouraging in this regard. He's out there making plays instead of avoiding mistakes. If he's able to harness that mentality full time, there's really no reason to think he won't be a franchise guy.

 

"Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar."

 

What are you calling 3rd and short, and what's our run/pass percentage breakdown on those plays?  And the success?

 

I could find the overall breakdown of 3rd down distance ranges on pfr and all the plays, but not the success rate by type of play etc.

 

I don't think there's so much "overanalyzing" going on as you think, and I think we run more on 3rd and what I would call short (3 or less) than you think

 

And right now, as far as I can tell, there are aspects of Josh's passing repetoire that are still works in progress.  I would call that a "physical limitation" but not sure that's what you mean.

 

 

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

When we get in a first or second and 20, I actually feel good... Strangely, better than I would on second or third and 7.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, NC Book said:

JP Allen!?! 

 

No.  NO!

[LSHMEAB]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

And right now, as far as I can tell, there are aspects of Josh's passing repetoire that are still works in progress.  I would call that a "physical limitation" but not sure that's what you mean.

 

 

To get into the weeds a bit, he does make some puzzling short throws and it's hard to believe that's physical. I suppose it's possibly a mechanical flaw and I'm sure the QB experts could break that down and come up with an answer. 

 

It just SEEMS to me that his main issue with some of the gimmies is "aiming." 

 

Bottom line on that is that I've seen marked improvement, especially in the last two games. 

 

And when I say third and short, I'm talking 3rd and 3-6. Unfortunately, the run game is just not good enough to be trusted on even a 3rd and 3. That would certainly help the QB.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Not too surprising when you factor in he has one of the strongest arms in the league.  So when defenses know you're going to throw the guy with the strong arm will come out ahead more compared to others.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

To get into the weeds a bit, he does make some puzzling short throws and it's hard to believe that's physical. I suppose it's possibly a mechanical flaw and I'm sure the QB experts could break that down and come up with an answer. 

 

It just SEEMS to me that his main issue with some of the gimmies is "aiming." 

 

Bottom line on that is that I've seen marked improvement, especially in the last two games. 

 

And when I say third and short, I'm talking 3rd and 3-6. Unfortunately, the run game is just not good enough to be trusted on even a 3rd and 3. That would certainly help the QB.

 

So last year before the draft, my biggest issue was Allen's short to intermediate throws and the shorter, the worse especially to the right.  It's not that the WR didn't pull them in - they did - but what should be a pass directly onto the receiver's hands was often too much of an adventure requiring side-to-side adjustment or a vertical jump, and that gives the defender time to catch up and stuff the play. 

 

Allen obviously worked very hard on these in the off season and last Spring, and has made huge progress, but I think the short dumpoffs behind the LOS are still a problem spot for him.  They're the throws that require the least ginger to be catchable, but must often be made over or near a charging defender which suggests the need for zip.  At least in part, there's what I'd call a physical limitation remaining.  There were two throws in the Browns game that Allen could in theory have made by throwing with an arc

 

So a few fun facts: Bills have 709 offensive plays.  Of them, 143 or 20% are 3rd down.

I found the splits (click to enlarge)

 

Now I'll want to hunt around to see if other teams have that same dip - maybe the 3rd and 4-6 range is just overall hard to convert.

 

[LSHMEAB]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

Now I'll want to hunt around to see if other teams have that same dip - maybe the 3rd and 4-6 range is just overall hard to convert.

 

Those are VERY interesting numbers. The Bills are averaging just 4 yards per play on 3rd and 4-9, but almost 8 on 3rd and less than 3 and over 10 on 3rd and 10+. What to extrapolate? I'm gonna stick to my guns that Allen has a tendency to aim in these spots, but the analysis regarding arc on throws behind the LOS is a solid counterpoint and is "physical" in nature. The offense is naturally gonna go to this type of play frequently in the situations in question.

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, LSHMEAB said:

Those are VERY interesting numbers. The Bills are averaging just 4 yards per play on 3rd and 4-9, but almost 8 on 3rd and less than 3 and over 10 on 3rd and 10+. What to extrapolate? I'm gonna stick to my guns that Allen has a tendency to aim in these spots, but the analysis regarding arc on throws behind the LOS is a solid counterpoint and is "physical" in nature. The offense is naturally gonna go to this type of play frequently in the situations in question.

You and Hapless going back and forth is the PBS of football talk. Really good stuff.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Those are VERY interesting numbers. The Bills are averaging just 4 yards per play on 3rd and 4-9, but almost 8 on 3rd and less than 3 and over 10 on 3rd and 10+. What to extrapolate? I'm gonna stick to my guns that Allen has a tendency to aim in these spots, but the analysis regarding arc on throws behind the LOS is a solid counterpoint and is "physical" in nature. The offense is naturally gonna go to this type of play frequently in the situations in question.

 

So I did a little bit of rummaging around.  I looked at KC first.  No such dip in the 4-6 range; falls off in the 10+ range where we shine.

 

Here's Dallas though.  Same dip in same YTG range 4-6, albeit not as severe (only mid-50's, not to mid-40's as Bills).

On the right, Houston.  There's a dip, but it's for 7-9 YTG

So that's 3 QB on 3 different teams both with a fall off in conversion in a sort of intermediate yardage range.

Overall, I'm thinking there must be play-design, play-calling, and execution issues here, not just psychological.

 

Oh, and just for shucks and grins, here's Baker and the Browns

 

[LSHMEAB]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So I did a little bit of rummaging around.  I looked at KC first.  No such dip in the 4-6 range; falls off in the 10+ range where we shine.

 

Here's Dallas though.  Same dip in same YTG range 4-6, albeit not as severe (only mid-50's, not to mid-40's as Bills).

On the right, Houston.  There's a dip, but it's for 7-9 YTG

So that's 3 QB on 3 different teams both with a fall off in conversion in a sort of intermediate yardage range.

Overall, I'm thinking there must be play-design, play-calling, and execution issues here, not just psychological.

 

Oh, and just for shucks and grins, here's Baker and the Browns

 

Sounds to me like there's a really simple solution for 3rd and 5 or 6. Auto false start. We've got a few guys that are more than capable of doing this unintentionally.

[CorkScrewHill]

11 hours ago, CorkScrewHill said:

It appears it is a plot with Daboll .. hence why he calls a run play on 80% of 1st downs .. just trying to get us in 3rd and long. Seriously it is sooo maddening that he is such a vanilla play caller on 1st down

Just rewatched the game ... and including plays where a penalty occurred there were 35 first down snaps for the Bills 26 were runs or a whopping or right around 74%. Of the 9 passes most went for very good gains ... except a throw-away on a well diagnosed screen and the interception where JA had plenty of time but just had the pass get away from him. I would like to see a bit more diversity.