Joshua Patrick Allen, aka Mr 3rd down

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, VW82 said:

Wait so these numbers are before considering 3rd & long conversions on rushes? Because he’s definitely had some of those too. Anyone know where he ranks on 3rd down in general?

 

When you see stats like this it really makes you wonder why this offense hasn’t scored more points.

 

It does.  In general it seems to be a combination of untimely penalties and getting stalled out - just not converting - at the wrong time.

[Big Turk]

8 minutes ago, VW82 said:

Wait so these numbers are before considering 3rd & long conversions on rushes? Because he’s definitely had some of those too. Anyone know where he ranks on 3rd down in general?

 

When you see stats like this it really makes you wonder why this offense hasn’t scored more points.

 

Yeah these are only passing numbers. Allen is a baller...i know he still has a lot to work on but he does things well that very few other QBs do...

 

Convert 3rd and long and play lights out in the 4th Q and lead comebacks and game winning drives.

[Scott7975]

9 minutes ago, VW82 said:

Wait so these numbers are before considering 3rd & long conversions on rushes? Because he’s definitely had some of those too. Anyone know where he ranks on 3rd down in general?

 

When you see stats like this it really makes you wonder why this offense hasn’t scored more points.

 

Yes this stat is passing only. Our overall 3rd down conversion rate is 38.03%.  Ranks 16th in the NFL.  Over the last 3 games it is 41.86% which is good for 7th in the league compared to everyone else's last 3 games.  Last year we were 31.63% so pretty good improvement.

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 minutes ago, WhoTom said:

I know the hit was unavoidable, but he seemed to drive Josh into the ground. Using the TB12 standard, that's egregious RtP.

 

A valid point, but what did the ref say?  "Young feller, you're too new to get that call" or something?

[VW82]

10 minutes ago, WhoTom said:

 

Total 3rd down conversion rate is 38% this year. Apparently, we suck on 3rd and short.

 

I don’t have the numbers to back this up but it feels like we get blitzed more on 3rd and short to med so maybe that has something to do with it. I still think we have work to do recognizing and handling the blitz in general. 
 

Also, I’m still pro Morse signing but he’s not really helping us on those 3rd and short runs.

Edited November 26, 2019 by VW82

[Scott7975]

1 minute ago, VW82 said:

I don’t have the numbers to back this up but it feels like we get blitzed more on 3rd and short to med so maybe that has something to do with it. 
 

Also, I’m still pro Morse signing but he’s not really helping us on those 3rd and short runs.

 

Its also that sometimes we go deep on 3rd and short in the past and we know how that has worked out in the past.

[John from Riverside]

I actually thought he was pretty good on 3rd down last year 2....we had a LOT of long conversions called back from penalties.

 

The nice thing about this?  Josh Allen has just SCRATCHED his potential.....he can get much much better

[Blank Stare]

One of my absolute favorite traits of Allen. I feel like he always gives us a chance on third down regardless of distance. Whether it’s his arm strength or competitiveness, he delivers. Glad to see the stats support the eyeball test. 

[Scott7975]

Here is where everyone ranks btw.... http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=047&type=Passing&year=

[VW82]

9 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Its also that sometimes we go deep on 3rd and short in the past and we know how that has worked out in the past.

I don’t mind taking these shots on 2nd and short. We’ve gone for the gusto in some weird spots on 3rd down this year. It’s one of my main beefs with Dabol.

 

Edit: you could it’s the reason we lost the Browns game. Complete one more five yard play and maybe we make the kick.

Edited November 26, 2019 by VW82

[WhoTom]

11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

A valid point, but what did the ref say?  "Young feller, you're too new  not Tom Brady to get that call" or something?

 

Fixed it.

[LSHMEAB]

I've noticed this trend and it's a good one. I'll be THAT guy and say he needs to be more efficient on 3rd and short. It is strange that I "feel" more confident on 3rd and 8 than I do on 3rd and 3. Since we don't really have a great run game, it generally comes to down to JA having to make a play.

 

My personal opinion is that so much of what goes on with Allen is psychological. He has zero physical limitations. It seems as though he's trying to make a play on 3rd and long and trying to avoid a mistake on 3rd and short. It APPEARS that way anyhow.

 

He's an extremely bright guy, but sometimes I think he needs to chuck that IQ out of the stadium and stop over analyzing. He's done this on 3rd and long since day one. Since he knows it's not really a down and distance he's expected to convert, his mentality is to make a play as opposed to not screwing up. Part of that mentality falls on the shoulder of the coach's.

 

The past two weeks have been very encouraging in this regard. He's out there making plays instead of avoiding mistakes. If he's able to harness that mentality full time, there's really no reason to think he won't be a franchise guy.

[SomeDudeAtHome]

6 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

another reason he reminds me so much of a young big ben.... living on the outskirts of stiller country I've seen a ton of that guy and for years fans of that team were more confident in 3rd and long situations than there were on a typical 3rd and 3. 

 

This is true for me. 3rd and 6+ I know they're passing and feel confident we'll get a first. 3rd and 3 or less I'm thinking to myself "Ok what kinda of gadget play is Daboll gonna call and screw up" or that I'll be watching Gore get stuffed trying to go up the middle. I love Gore btw but we are not good at running up the middle for some reason.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

43 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

So, can I nickname him JP? ?‍♂️

Too soon??

 

??

[Scott7975]

39 minutes ago, VW82 said:

I don’t mind taking these shots on 2nd and short. We’ve gone for the gusto in some weird spots on 3rd down this year. It’s one of my main beefs with Dabol.

 

Edit: you could it’s the reason we lost the Browns game. Complete one more five yard play and maybe we make the kick.

 

I don't like it either.  However, it's one of those things that if he hits them it looks genius instead.

[Bookie Man]

JP Allen!?! 

[The Real Buffalo Joe]

6 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

FFS...  why am I just now learning his initials are JP? 

Marketing genius Russ Brandon would have never let this slip. #JustSayin

[WideNine]

7 hours ago, Logic said:

For the past 20 years, 3rd and 8+ for the Bills basically felt like an automatic punt.

Ever since Allen came to town -- not so much.

They say a quarterback makes his money on 3rd downs and in the 4th quarter. If that be the case, Allen has a bright future.

 

For years we have been gifted an uneven amount of penalties on our first 2 downs that put us in 3rd and likely fail situations.

 

We still get too many of those, but unlike our QBs past Josh converts them. It is like 3rd and longs amp him up.

 

 

[eball]

Mr. 3rd down, Mr. 4th quarter...our boy simply has the "clutch" gene.

[billspro]

7 hours ago, Logic said:

For the past 20 years, 3rd and 8+ for the Bills basically felt like an automatic punt.

Ever since Allen came to town -- not so much.

They say a quarterback makes his money on 3rd downs and in the 4th quarter. If that be the case, Allen has a bright future.

 

? it’s also the reason we have had so many long drives this year. We have a chance to win every game with Allen at QB. This could be a franchise altering win on Thanksgiving. The Bills have not won a game this big in a long time.