Josh Allen's statistical placement through 15 games vs 2018 season

[Gugny]

15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree we should play to his strengths, and those are not - at this point in his career - making a clutch throw on 3rd down with a full field read when everyone in the stadium knows you are going to throw. Run, run, pass is not what Josh is built to execute. Especially this week. The book on beating the Broncos D is throw on 1st down.

 

This is, to me, a big week for Daboll.  Once again, he's shown that he is perfectly capable of devising a gameplan based on the strengths of our offense and the weaknesses of our opponent.

 

My hope is that he does something that he's never done before ..... call that kind of gameplan in consecutive weeks.

[mjt328]

Last year, he was pretty much at the bottom of the league (in terms of JUST passing stats).  We are talking around #30-32 in most overall rankings. 

He was arguably better than fellow rookies Josh Rosen and Lamar Jackson.  That was about it.  There were flashes of his abilities, but the consistency just wasn't there.

 

At just over the midway point of 2019, I would say he's jumped about 10 spots.  Now he's hovering between #20-25 in the passing rankings. 

That is pretty decent progress for a single offseason.  Especially considering the total overhaul we've see on that side of the ball - both WRs, TEs and O-Line, and the time needed to get everyone on the same page.

 

As a QB with significant running ability, I also think his overall ranking would be higher than just what his passing stats reveal alone.  A touchdown is a touchdown, regardless of whether it came on the ground or through the air.  If he's #20-25 in just passing, I think it's fair to say he's in the #15-20 range with everything included.

 

 

In my opinion, the goal is for Josh Allen to be in the Top #10-12 overall (passing and running) by the middle of Year 4. 

He's definitely not there yet.  But if he continues to trend upwards, there is definitely some hope.

 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

IF Only the detractors could now admit Josh Allens growth.

 

2 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

This is, to me, a big week for Daboll.  Once again, he's shown that he is perfectly capable of devising a gameplan based on the strengths of our offense and the weaknesses of our opponent.

 

My hope is that he does something that he's never done before ..... call that kind of gameplan in consecutive weeks.

 

AMEN.  

Keep him in the booth away from Josh on the sidelines and let Josh be Josh 

[BringBackOrton]

43 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree. And I did make that point. It is perfectly fine for Allen to be less developed at this stage than a Wilson or a Watson who played a lot more college ball and at a higher level.

NC State is QBU apparently. Hard to compete with that.

[DuckyBoys]

The fact that the Bills are running a pass first offense bodes well for Josh.  The coaching staff knows far better than we do how war along he is and what he can or cant do. I'd be much more concerned if we were limiting him .  He is far from finished in terms of growth as a qb.  Now about that long ball.....  Maybe he can hit one of those soon and goes on a heater

[Mrbojanglezs]

Josh Allen should not ever be evaluated on just his passing stats alone....his running game is a big part of his game especially in the red zone.

 

How can you leave out his rushing TDs in the QB TD %?

 

TDs are TDs whether he passes them or runs them in.

Edited November 19, 2019 by Mrbojanglezs

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Just now, Mrbojanglezs said:

Josh Allen should not ever be evaluated on just his passing stats alone....his running game is a big part of his game especially in the red zone.

 

How can you leave out his rushing TDs in the QB TD %?

 

TDS are TDS whether he passes them or runs them in.

 

Of course they don't  

 

Selective stats just don't add up to give the proper picture.  

 

[BringBackOrton]

41 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Fair enough. I would agree that, at this point, he is not quite where Russell was, but not far off either. For me, as it is for you, I'm sure, is that he is continuing to get better.

 

As an aside, and it is just my opinion, I believe his overall game would be better if Daboll was more consistent in implementing plays designed to maximize and take full advantage of the areas in which Allen has really progressed (and are his strengths) this year. I, feel at times, he has forced Allen into a role where he was playing to his weaknesses rather than his strengths (i.e.; the New England game and, to some extent, the Cleveland game and a couple others). 

Daboll challenges Allen to read the defense and throw the football. That’s what your QB is supposed to do. 

 

I know everyone seems to want Allen to throw the balls 20 times a game and run the ball 40 times with Singletary, but that’s not how he is going to improve. Furthermore, I’m not sure that’s how we are even going to win. There were plays to be made vs NE and Cleveland that Allen didn’t make. That’s a opportunity for him to see on Monday and work on. He got rocked by Cover zero against the Pats, struggled against it in Dolphins #1 and then dominated it by Dolphins #2. That’s what you want. Look what happened to Mitch Trubisky. They built an offense to hide his weaknesses, it got figured out, and now they can’t even complete a pass.

[IDBillzFan]

4 hours ago, GreggTX said:

I still have serious doubts about Josh, but I do like him and want him to succeed. Beane is the one I'm most worried about.

 

Can you explain to me what Beane has done that has you so worried?

[JESSEFEFFER]

9 minutes ago, DuckyBoys said:

The fact that the Bills are running a pass first offense bodes well for Josh.  The coaching staff knows far better than we do how war along he is and what he can or cant do. I'd be much more concerned if we were limiting him .  He is far from finished in terms of growth as a qb.  Now about that long ball.....  Maybe he can hit one of those soon and goes on a heater

 

On Thanksgiving, with a climate controlled environment and a national TV audience, and with Jim Nantz and Tony Romo on the call, the Bills are really pumped to play that game whereas the Cowboys view it as a PITA.  Over under on Romo wows! for Josh Allen/Bills offensive plays?  Maybe 7.  I can see it now.  At least one vertical route hit, but there might be more.

Edited November 19, 2019 by JESSEFEFFER

[hemma]

If he keeps playing well, he'll crawl over a few more guys.

Just this past game popped him up a few in QB rating.

 

Anyway, the trend is good.  There is a big diff in the effectiveness of a QB rating of 67.9 (2018) vs 85.4 (now).

[CincyBillsFan]

By any measure Allen has made broad & substantial improvements from last year.  Given that there were a lot of "experts" saying he should not see the field as a starter until the middle of his 2nd season or even not until his 3rd year demonstrates that his performance has exceeded almost all the pre-draft expectations. 

 

And he has accomplished this with an offensive line-up that is far from elite.  Making matters even tougher, the Bill's offense has seen an almost complete turnover in personnel from last season to this season. 

 

 

Edited November 19, 2019 by CincyBillsFan

[billsfan1959]

22 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

This is, to me, a big week for Daboll.  Once again, he's shown that he is perfectly capable of devising a gameplan based on the strengths of our offense and the weaknesses of our opponent.

 

My hope is that he does something that he's never done before ..... call that kind of gameplan in consecutive weeks.

This really has been my primary issue with Daboll - his consistency in playing to his team's strengths (particularly Allen) / opponents' weaknesses.

[Buffalo Junction]

29 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

NC State is QBU apparently. Hard to compete with that.

They’ve done a pretty good job of getting QB talent over the last two decades and getting those guys drafted... Rivers, Glennon, Finley, Wilson. Same goes for their D lines. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

20 minutes ago, hemma said:

If he keeps playing well, he'll crawl over a few more guys.

Just this past game popped him up a few in QB rating.

 

Anyway, the trend is good.  There is a big diff in the effectiveness of a QB rating of 67.9 (2018) vs 85.4 (now).

Enjoy it, even though 85 isn't very good in today's game. His numbers are about to take a big hit.

[GunnerBill]

40 minutes ago, timekills17 said:

 

If issues with process = #1 in redzone TD percentage then SIGN ME UP FOR MORE issues with the PROCESS

 

His legs are the great equaliser down there. That is the point.

[BringBackOrton]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

They’ve done a pretty good job of getting QB talent over the last two decades and getting those guys drafted... Rivers, Glennon, Finley, Wilson. Same goes for their D lines. 

Brissett too.

[billsfan1959]

48 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

Daboll challenges Allen to read the defense and throw the football. That’s what your QB is supposed to do. 

 

I know everyone seems to want Allen to throw the balls 20 times a game and run the ball 40 times with Singletary, but that’s not how he is going to improve. Furthermore, I’m not sure that’s how we are even going to win. There were plays to be made vs NE and Cleveland that Allen didn’t make. That’s a opportunity for him to see on Monday and work on. He got rocked by Cover zero against the Pats, struggled against it in Dolphins #1 and then dominated it by Dolphins #2. That’s what you want. Look what happened to Mitch Trubisky. They built an offense to hide his weaknesses, it got figured out, and now they can’t even complete a pass.

 

I have never advocated that Allen throw the ball 20 times per game and the run game have 40 rushes per game. Ever.

 

I would love to see Allen throw the ball 35-40 times per game. He is absolutely expected to be able to read defenses and he does a pretty decent job for being in his second year. That doesn't mean he is great at it yet, or that he shouldn't have help in the the design and call of plays.

 

He struggled against the Pats because Daboll insisted on attacking the strength of the NE defense (their secondary) with Allen's and the the team's weaknesses (the long ball, and standing in the pocket/pass protection for longer developing plays). There were some plays to be made in that game (as there are in every game); however, there was far more potential for problems. Add in the fact that Belichick is pretty good at putting together defense that confuse young QBs. For every "play there was to be made" in that game, I will show you three where Allen was running for his life behind a line being asked to block long enough for receivers, who struggled with getting separation, to get open against one of the better secondaries in the NFL.

 

The gameplan wasn't even close to being the same in the Miami game on Sunday. For the most part, they were quicker hitting pass plays that were in Allen's wheelhouse this year: from the LOS to 20 yards downfield. Even the 40 yard TD pass to Brown was a 22 yd completion. When they went to that same strategy in the second half (for awhile at least) of the New England game, Allen was much better.

 

Allen does better throwing on early downs with a quicker tempo and plays that devlop more quickly in that LOS - 20yd range. Allen does not do well with the deep ball, longer developing plays, or "run, run pass on 3rd and long." When they stick to what he does best, they generally do well. When they move away from it, they generally don't. 

Edited November 19, 2019 by billsfan1959

[Buffalo Junction]

2 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

Brissett too.

Yup. I’m surprised Brissett developed as well as he did. Lucked into two excellent spots and took advantage of the opportunities. Im happy for him. Finley on the other hand seems to have drawn the short straw.
 

 The D line pipeline is equally impressive. They seem to send the whole line to the NFL, reload in 3-4 years and do it again. Unfortunately, the Pack is horrid to watch during the reloading cycles. 

[Kemp]

So, his highest ranking passing stat is 19th. Not bad, but hardly cause for any sort of anointment, yet.

[ganesh]

7 hours ago, Troll Toll said:

Given this supporting cast, I’m impressed. There’s times where he puts this offense on his back and makes things happen in a way that has been missing since Kelly. Get him a receiver that commands a double team and things will really open up for him.

And play Singletary like Thurman Thomas.  It will do wonders to the QB

[BuffaloHokie13]

18 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

I would love to see Allen throw the ball 35-40 times per game. He is absolutely expected to be able to read defenses and he does a pretty decent job for being in his second year. That doesn't mean he is great at it yet, or that he shouldn't have help in the the design and call of plays.

I understand what you're advocating for here. And I'm not disputing it. I'm just trying to provide some context. Currently. When considering passes, sacks, and rushes, Allen is averaging just over 41 attempts per game. And that's actually on the high side. So to meet your requested criteria he'd have to throw 35 times, run 6 times, and not get sacked - which does sound like a good game.

[bourbonboy]

I love Allen, and do believe he has improved, but some of the OP's stats are skewed. Allen did only play in 11 games in 2018 - so you can't use 2018 seasonal rankings comparing him to other QB's that played more games. For example, a large reason he finished 30th in total passing attempts and 32nd in total passing TD's last year is because many other QB's played more games than him. So the improvements from 30th to 15th and 32nd to 19th is likely more because he is now being compared to other QB's that played the same amount of games in 2019. If you want look at game averages, such as passing attempts per game, that would be a much better comparison.....

[whatdrought]

And for all we know yesterday was his coming out party and he'll be in the top 15 by the end of the year. I think he's definitely trending up. He's improving in all the important question mark areas, and he's got his insane athletic ability and his leadership and work ethic to fall back on. I like where we're going. 

[transplantbillsfan]

 

5 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

2018 ypa 32? I thought Allen was like in the top 3 in yards per attempt last year? Are you sure that’s not with the other Bills QBs mixed in?

 

You're thinking air yards.

 

Allen threw the ball, on average, farther than any other QB on average last year.  I think it was like 11 yards per throw or something, which was a full yard more than the next highest QB.

 

But he wasn't completing a bunch of those, which was why his YPA--which is a simple formula of total yards divided by total pass attempts--was lower.

5 hours ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

Throwing wise I expected him to be further up the list but I forgot how bad he was his first 5 starts, so his improvement is still good. He is doing what needs to be done without a roster of loaded all Stars on offense, so I am pleased and still have hope.

 

Yes.  After his first 4 games, his stats have dramatically improved.

 

It'd be a curious exercise to see where Allen ranks as a passer across the NFL if you just took every QB's last 6 games.

[C.Biscuit97]

That Miami Bump is magically for Allen.  Dude has 13 of his career 38 tds against them.  I want to see it against Dallas and NE.  
 

but his mid range passing definitely has improved. Just need to see it way more consistently. 

[dakrider]

23 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

That Miami Bump is magically for Allen.  Dude has 13 of his career 38 tds against them.  I want to see it against Dallas and NE.  
 

but his mid range passing definitely has improved. Just need to see it way more consistently. 

Allen does love feasting on Dolphin.  

[Buffalo Junction]

21 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

That Miami Bump is magically for Allen.  Dude has 13 of his career 38 tds against them.  I want to see it against Dallas and NE.  
 

but his mid range passing definitely has improved. Just need to see it way more consistently. 

Consistency is the key. I’m pretty happy that he’s proved that he can read defenses, improve his accuracy, and make all the throws. He’s even proved that he can drive down the field and score against good defenses. What Allen needs to show is that he can do that on a consistent basis in most games (everyone has a stinker). It needs to start coming together for four quarters. Until that happens there will be question marks. 

[Chicken Boo]

9 hours ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

You realize, of course, that Josh is on Pace to have similar passing TD numbers to Russell Wilson's first two seasons and that he's doing that with a LOT less surrounding talent?

 

Russell didn't have a ton of talent on those offenses.  Golden Tate and Marshawn.  Doug Baldwin had yet to hit his stride.

[C.Biscuit97]

Just now, Chicken Boo said:

 

Russell didn't have a ton of talent on those offenses.  Golden Tate and Marshawn.  Doug Baldwin had yet to hit his stride.

Baldwin wasn’t even drafted. Wilson made him. 

9 minutes ago, dakrider said:

Allen does love feasting on Dolphin.  

People should eat more dolphin.  They are a bunch of creepy rapists. 

[Shaw66]

Thanks for pulling this stuff together.   

 

I was like you; I thought he'd do better than that.  I was looking for him to get to the top 15 to 20 in the league, and he isn't there.   Passer rating tells the same story - it should, because it's based on a lot of the same stats you posted.   His oline and his receivers may have held him back a bit, but it's really on him.    

 

Statistically, I'd say he's improved just enough not to be too worried.   If he showed no statistical growth (which is where Mayfield and Darnold are), I'd be concerned.    Allen has shown clear progress, with no reason to believe his progress will stop now.   How he finishes this season, and next season, will tell us whether the Bills still have a problem at QB.  I'd love to see four of the last six games with a passer rating in the high 90s or above.  That would raise some eyebrows. 

 

[BringBackOrton]

4 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

I have never advocated that Allen throw the ball 20 times per game and the run game have 40 rushes per game. Ever.

 

I would love to see Allen throw the ball 35-40 times per game. He is absolutely expected to be able to read defenses and he does a pretty decent job for being in his second year. That doesn't mean he is great at it yet, or that he shouldn't have help in the the design and call of plays.

 

He struggled against the Pats because Daboll insisted on attacking the strength of the NE defense (their secondary) with Allen's and the the team's weaknesses (the long ball, and standing in the pocket/pass protection for longer developing plays). There were some plays to be made in that game (as there are in every game); however, there was far more potential for problems. Add in the fact that Belichick is pretty good at putting together defense that confuse young QBs. For every "play there was to be made" in that game, I will show you three where Allen was running for his life behind a line being asked to block long enough for receivers, who struggled with getting separation, to get open against one of the better secondaries in the NFL.

 

The gameplan wasn't even close to being the same in the Miami game on Sunday. For the most part, they were quicker hitting pass plays that were in Allen's wheelhouse this year: from the LOS to 20 yards downfield. Even the 40 yard TD pass to Brown was a 22 yd completion. When they went to that same strategy in the second half (for awhile at least) of the New England game, Allen was much better.

 

Allen does better throwing on early downs with a quicker tempo and plays that devlop more quickly in that LOS - 20yd range. Allen does not do well with the deep ball, longer developing plays, or "run, run pass on 3rd and long." When they stick to what he does best, they generally do well. When they move away from it, they generally don't. 

How do you beat Cover Zero without challenging the secondary? 

[Nextmanup]

The passing stats remain bad while his running game is, by far, the best part of his game.

 

It's time for McDermott and Daboll to abandon their "We must make him a pocket passer" campaign and start whipping up a clever offense that utilizes his running talent, just as Baltimore has done with Lamar.

 

Running is the only thing Allen does that is dangerous to opposing defenses.

 

 

 

 

 

[njbuff]

Hopefully the Bills see the 2020 draft as THE way to get Allen his stud WR that is “go getter” that EVERY QB needs.

 

The 2020 class of WR’s is the best in a very long time.

 

Alabama has 3 WR’s alone that have “stud” status, for example.

[transplantbillsfan]

8 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Throw out everything, the next 5 games will tell us where Allen is in his development. 

 

 

 

This is dumb 

[C.Biscuit97]

6 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

This is dumb 

Why is it dumb?  They faced 2 good teams (And Philly is 5-5) so far. They are going to face 3 good teams now.  Won’t that say much more about Allen than putting up stats against the crappy Fins?

[transplantbillsfan]

7 hours ago, Mrbojanglezs said:

Josh Allen should not ever be evaluated on just his passing stats alone....his running game is a big part of his game especially in the red zone.

 

How can you leave out his rushing TDs in the QB TD %?

 

TDs are TDs whether he passes them or runs them in.

 

I agree with you.

 

But I left it out because the complaints are regarding Allen as a passer.

 

As a runner, Allen leads the NFL in TDs and is 3rd in rushing yardage. 

 

He has 20 TDs and 10 turnovers.  That's a vast improvement over last year when he had 18 TDs and 20 turnovers through one more game.

[Just in Atlanta]

QB pastiness 

2018: 3rd

2019: 1st

[dakrider]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

The passing stats remain bad while his running game is, by far, the best part of his game.

 

It's time for McDermott and Daboll to abandon their "We must make him a pocket passer" campaign and start whipping up a clever offense that utilizes his running talent, just as Baltimore has done with Lamar.

 

Running is the only thing Allen does that is dangerous to opposing defenses.

 

 

 

Yeah because throwing a 30 yard strike is pretty meaningless really.   

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Enjoy it, even though 85 isn't very good in today's game. His numbers are about to take a big hit.

 

You seem frighteningly gleeful about this.