Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[buffaloaggie]

I guarantee Josh Allen's numbers would look better if they'd target John Brown more than 7 or 8 times a game. 70% of his targets are completions, and they aren't dink and dunk passes.

Edited November 4, 2019 by buffaloaggie

[BringBackOrton]

12 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

For most teams 2nd&1 is a gift to take a shot downfield.  The play call was just fine.  Don’t anyone blame Daboll for that.  There is definitely some blame to go around regarding execution on a number of plays.  We won’t always get to play teams like Washington where we can get away with it. 

We were on the goal line.

[Boatdrinks]

2 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

I agree on the Knox play, clear evidence he was short and the refs spotted it correctly.  No way that one is over turned.  On the PI yes clear evidence there was PI, but as about 100 others have already stated, pretty much none of the challenged PI calls are being overturned.  If I didn't know better I'd suspect collusion on the part of the officials.

It’s not collusion on the part of the officials ( re: overturning PI calls). They are under directive not to change these calls from the league, as games would be a veritable schi&$show. That rule will be enforced only in the playoffs.John Parry ( retired official now on TV broadcast ) alluded to this in an article I read in the NY post last week. He said he sees the rule becoming an issue “ when it is enforced in the playoffs and fans say that’s not what we’ve seen all year “. I found that very telling, as I’ve suspected the rule was put in to appease the coach (es) and assure the NFL isn’t embarrassed again in a playoff game. If they started overturning these in the regular season, more non calls would be challenged and the game would eventually become unwatchable. The first overturn of a call/ non call will happen in a playoff game. 

[eball]

No INTs in three games now, and a total of 7 through 8 games.  There are the three lost fumbles and four rushing scores so the total TD/TO rate for Josh is 14/10.  Still needs work but trending in the right direction.

[TheElectricCompany]

40 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

Calling the occasional run is worthwhile to keep the RPOs believable. Same with the jet sweeps. Now, calling so many of these is an issue. 

 

Sure, but I just don't see the point of Josh running if there aren't big plays to be had. He took over games last year with his legs. 

[Not at the table Karlos]

2 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

Wow, this is arguing a goal line offensive formation shouldn’t exist. Gonna need more data than common sense.

 

Because common sense suggests handing it off to your RB 2-3 yards back in shotgun turns a 1 yard run into a 4 yard run.

The running back is still a few yards from the LOS in I form/goalline and shotgun .  It’s 5-7 yards in both formations.

[Buffalo Junction]

5 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

Sure, but I just don't see the point of Josh running if there aren't big plays to be had. He took over games last year with his legs. 

Mostly from scrambling. IMO Daboll only needs to use it once or twice a game just to keep defenses honest.... unless it’s getting chunk yardage. Teams are spying Allen this year. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Wasn't he 70% yesterday?

 

70%  with a QBR of 72.8  and a RAT  of 110.4

 

Which again brings us to.....   what is the purpose here? 

 

48 minutes ago, eball said:

No INTs in three games now, and a total of 7 through 8 games.  There are the three lost fumbles and four rushing scores so the total TD/TO rate for Josh is 14/10.  Still needs work but trending in the right direction.

 

 

Edited November 4, 2019 by SlimShady'sGhost

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

1 hour ago, Boatdrinks said:

It’s not collusion on the part of the officials ( re: overturning PI calls). They are under directive not to change these calls from the league, as games would be a veritable schi&$show. That rule will be enforced only in the playoffs.John Parry ( retired official now on TV broadcast ) alluded to this in an article I read in the NY post last week. He said he sees the rule becoming an issue “ when it is enforced in the playoffs and fans say that’s not what we’ve seen all year “. I found that very telling, as I’ve suspected the rule was put in to appease the coach (es) and assure the NFL isn’t embarrassed again in a playoff game. If they started overturning these in the regular season, more non calls would be challenged and the game would eventually become unwatchable. The first overturn of a call/ non call will happen in a playoff game. 

 

I was using the word "collusion" in a somewhat joking manner only because you hear it some much these days in sports and government these days. 20 years ago, don't recall ever hearing that word.

 

Hadn't seen that article, interesting if true.  Assuming it's true, I wonder why they didn't just make the rule in effect for the playoffs only.  There are other rules like OT rules that differ between regular season and playoffs.

[billsfan89]

Josh is on pace for 3,300 yards passing, 500 yards rushing, 60.9% completion percentage, 20 passing TD's, 8 rushing TD's, 14 INT's, 4 fumbles lost, and a 12-4 record. 

 

That all being said that's not a bad improvement in year two thus far. 28 TD's (rushing and passing) against 18 turnovers is not an ideal scoring to turnover ratio. However I think that his decision making has been growing week to week. I think his most recent turnovers have been more of a result bad play calling due to designed run calls that make no sense. But his accuracy in the short and intermediate game has been impressive thus far, I also think that his game overall has been massively improving in many respects. I also think that it is fair to say that while the offensive talent around him isn't bad it isn't great either. Josh has no true number one WR and no true consistent TE in the passing game either. 

 

One concern with Josh is the deep ball which just hasn't been there as of this season. I think his adjusting his game to be more touch based and accuracy based in the short range has thrown off his deep ball touch. But I hope that as he get more comfortable with his short and intermediate game. 

 

TLDR: By the numbers you see a typical "Year Two" QB some improvement, some flaws, and a long way to go but possibly getting there. 

[Wayne Arnold]

3 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

The more people you crowd around the football, the more defenders you’re inviting around the football. 

 

The more defenders you have around the football, the less space there will be up the middle and the more weight the OLine has to push.

 

To attempt this once is pretty dumb.

 

To attempt this multiple times in a game - including three times in a row on the goal line - is INCREDIBLY F’N STUPID.

 

Crazy concept - if you desperately want to hand off to your RB up the gut, then spread out the formation with four wideouts. Take the snap from shotgun.

 

Common sense GUARANTEES that there will be more space for your RB to get a yard with less humanity in front of him.

 

Chris Brown repeated this point on One Bills Live just a few minutes ago. 

 

Used the example of Spiller averaging over 6 yards per rush attempt as a result of Gailey’s spread formations.

 

Chris - thanks for reading, but next time please credit the forum and myself. ?

[Wayne Arnold]

3 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

Wow, this is arguing a goal line offensive formation shouldn’t exist. Gonna need more data than common sense.

 

Because common sense suggests handing it off to your RB 2-3 yards back in shotgun turns a 1 yard run into a 4 yard run.

 

It can still exist for meathead football coaches with outdated (dinosaur) mentalities.

[BringBackOrton]

5 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

It can still exist for meathead football coaches with outdated (dinosaur) mentalities.

Hey man, Brian Daboll has an econ degree from U of R. Show some respect.

 

the Pats do it all the time btw. Guess BB is just a dinosaur meathead.

Edited November 4, 2019 by BringBackOrton

[Wayne Arnold]

5 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

Hey man, Brian Daboll has an econ degree from U of R. Show some respect.

 

the Pats do it all the time btw. Guess BB is just a dinosaur meathead.

 

Has Belichick ever done it after getting stuffed twice in a row?

[BringBackOrton]

1 minute ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Has Belichick ever done it after getting stuffed twice in a row?

I’m not sure but even doing it once would be stupid because “cOmMoN sEnSe DiCtAtEs YoU sPrEaD tHeM oUt!”

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, eball said:

No INTs in three games now, and a total of 7 through 8 games.  There are the three lost fumbles and four rushing scores so the total TD/TO rate for Josh is 14/10.  Still needs work but trending in the right direction.

 

That's really all I wanted to see this year, clear and continual improvement. If anyone expected Allen to be a finished product this year I don't know what to tell them. He still needs to improve but he has made a ton of progress this year and I see him getting a little better every week.

[Wayne Arnold]

3 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

I’m not sure but even doing it once would be stupid because “cOmMoN sEnSe DiCtAtEs YoU sPrEaD tHeM oUt!”

 

Get back to me when you find out. Until then, your example is pointless.

[BringBackOrton]

Just now, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Get back to me when you find out. Until then, your example is pointless.

No, your counterpoint was that the goalline offense only exists for meathead coaches. Including the greatest, most forward thinking coach ever. You lost. Now go get your ***** shinebox.

[HappyDays]

40 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

Josh is on pace for 3,300 yards passing, 500 yards rushing, 60.9% completion percentage, 20 passing TD's, 8 rushing TD's, 14 INT's, 4 fumbles lost, and a 12-4 record. 

 

He also has a passer rating of 82.9 and ANY/A of 5.38, both are big improvements on what he did last year. Still not good enough but if he keeps progressing we're in great shape. 

[Boatdrinks]

51 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

I was using the word "collusion" in a somewhat joking manner only because you hear it some much these days in sports and government these days. 20 years ago, don't recall ever hearing that word.

 

Hadn't seen that article, interesting if true.  Assuming it's true, I wonder why they didn't just make the rule in effect for the playoffs only.  There are other rules like OT rules that differ between regular season and playoffs.

Yeah, the OT rules are an anomaly there. You probably don’t want a bunch of different rules that only apply during playoff games. My guess is that wasn’t a road the league wanted to go down again. The whole idea of reviewing calls of a rule like PI that is applied and enforced loosely and different between games/ crews etc was a bad idea. The Saints complained loudly enough, and the play caused the league to have a lot of egg on its face. I believe the league has quietly issued a directive to the officials not to enforce the rule unless a hugely egregious call/ non call happens in the playoffs. 

[Seven-N-Nine]

35 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

It can still exist for meathead football coaches with outdated (dinosaur) mentalities.

 

Ah, I know exactly who you're talking about.

[Hebert19]

55 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

Josh is on pace for 3,300 yards passing, 500 yards rushing, 60.9% completion percentage, 20 passing TD's, 8 rushing TD's, 14 INT's, 4 fumbles lost, and a 12-4 record. 

 

That all being said that's not a bad improvement in year two thus far. 28 TD's (rushing and passing) against 18 turnovers is not an ideal scoring to turnover ratio. However I think that his decision making has been growing week to week. I think his most recent turnovers have been more of a result bad play calling due to designed run calls that make no sense. But his accuracy in the short and intermediate game has been impressive thus far, I also think that his game overall has been massively improving in many respects. I also think that it is fair to say that while the offensive talent around him isn't bad it isn't great either. Josh has no true number one WR and no true consistent TE in the passing game either. 

 

One concern with Josh is the deep ball which just hasn't been there as of this season. I think his adjusting his game to be more touch based and accuracy based in the short range has thrown off his deep ball touch. But I hope that as he get more comfortable with his short and intermediate game. 

 

TLDR: By the numbers you see a typical "Year Two" QB some improvement, some flaws, and a long way to go but possibly getting there. 

Was just going to post these stats.  I'd guess they go up as well as we need to throw more against some of the teams coming up.  In the end he will be close to 4000 total yards with 30 total tds.  Ask people if those stats worked at beginning of year and I'd guess 90 percent would have been. 

[billsfan89]

27 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

He also has a passer rating of 82.9 and ANY/A of 5.38, both are big improvements on what he did last year. Still not good enough but if he keeps progressing we're in great shape. 

 

If Josh stopped developing his play would be the quality of a Fitz type fringe starter (a guy whose success is heavily dependent on the talent around him) but luckily he just continues to develop in various aspects. If Josh continues to make better decisions and "force" the ball less (as he has the past 3 games) those turnover to TD margins will improve. If Josh can find his touch on the deep ball his overall success and passing numbers should improve. How good he can be is going to come down to how he can develop his deep ball accuracy and fine tune the aspects of his game he has already improved significantly. 

19 minutes ago, Hebert19 said:

Was just going to post these stats.  I'd guess they go up as well as we need to throw more against some of the teams coming up.  In the end he will be close to 4000 total yards with 30 total tds.  Ask people if those stats worked at beginning of year and I'd guess 90 percent would have been. 

 

A lot of the crazier fans were projecting a Mahomes like second season (completely ignoring that Mahomes had multiple elite weapons around him in addition to a good O-line) for Josh. But I think the more reality based fans had a sense that Josh's season was going to look more like Trubisky's season with the Bears last year. Which I think it has from a "stats" perspective. But Josh on film looks to be showcasing more dynamic traits and consistent week to week improvement. 

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

We were on the goal line.

Frick. That’s right.  My bad

[Wayne Arnold]

58 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

No, your counterpoint was that the goalline offense only exists for meathead coaches. Including the greatest, most forward thinking coach ever. You lost. Now go get your ***** shinebox.

 

Still waiting.

[BringBackOrton]

4 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

Wow, this is arguing a goal line offensive formation shouldn’t exist. Gonna need more data than common sense.

 

Because common sense suggests handing it off to your RB 2-3 yards back in shotgun turns a 1 yard run into a 4 yard run.

 

1 hour ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

It can still exist for meathead football coaches with outdated (dinosaur) mentalities.

 

1 hour ago, BringBackOrton said:

Hey man, Brian Daboll has an econ degree from U of R. Show some respect.

 

the Pats do it all the time btw. Guess BB is just a dinosaur meathead.

 

4 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Still waiting.

People don’t forget!

[HappyDays]

20 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

If Josh stopped developing his play would be the quality of a Fitz type fringe starter (a guy whose success is heavily dependent on the talent around him) but luckily he just continues to develop in various aspects.

 

Yep and he's been improving since week 1 too. In the first 4 games his passer rating was 69.6. In the past 4 games his passer rating was 98.4. That's the difference between worst starting QBs in the league and 14th in the league. It remains to be seen if that progress sticks but it's a clear upward trend.

[CardinalScotts]

does the word project mean anything to you ...drafted as a 21 year old out of a small school and we want him to be Watson or Mahomes.  I think he's going to be great - in time. Yes I think it will take the rest of this year and maybe half on next year.

 

If you watch KC or more importantly Andy Reid quarterbacks they all play great- he's a master play caller and the KC offense as we know is loaded. From McNabb -Vick-Foles even making Kevin Kolb and Detmer look tradeable. With KC its been Alex Smith and now Mahomes- have you watched Matt freaking Moore ? these are not tight window throws. While Mahomes has a tremendous arm and is a great quarterback his throws are to guys high school wide open- the speed and talent and wide out combined with the best TE in the game combined with using just enough of a running game to keep teams off balance. If we think it was plug in Mahomes and he's pulled the chiefs to a higher level your fooling yourself Mahomes took over a team that the 3 previous seasons  12-4, 12-4, 10-6. Obviously a tremendous environment tot start in for a guy who was close to ready after sitting an entire year. 

 

Back to Josh - this makes  us as Bills fans a bit jealous and wanting a guy like that.

Hey we drafted Josh high why isn't he as good etc

Just a lot more Raw Josh went to Juco out of high school, then Wyoming. Level of competition and individual coaching lacking puts Josh behind.

Coming to a team last year that was a joke on weapons and o-line (what's a word bigger than joke) slows the progress. 

Also not playing for a master play caller by comparison also slows him

This year he has improved but here is another key point McDermott plays complimentary football gets a lead kind of protects it offensively and plays safe this also slows a quarterbacks growth but while WINNING. Classic example is Murray they throw it 45 times a game put up some descent numbers chasing the lead the whole time okay yards while losing a lot. Do they know what they have ?  False reading (see Mayfield)  In short be patient he's going to be great in timing with this teams being ready to compete for super bowls. Everyone knows he was more of a prospect  - shut off WGR

[Dr. Who]

3 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

A lot of the crazier fans were projecting a Mahomes like second season (completely ignoring that Mahomes had multiple elite weapons around him in addition to a good O-line) for Josh. But I think the more reality based fans had a sense that Josh's season was going to look more like Trubisky's season with the Bears last year. Which I think it has from a "stats" perspective. But Josh on film looks to be showcasing more dynamic traits and consistent week to week improvement. 

Mahomes also has an elite offensive coach calling the shots. I agree with your overall assessment.

[CardinalScotts]

3 hours ago, Hebert19 said:

Was just going to post these stats.  I'd guess they go up as well as we need to throw more against some of the teams coming up.  In the end he will be close to 4000 total yards with 30 total tds.  Ask people if those stats worked at beginning of year and I'd guess 90 percent would have been. 

you can have nice numbers while playing from behind fooling yourself into he's going to be a good quarterback. Winning you don't get the garbage drive of 50-60 yards at the end of games or multiple 50 yd drives to nowhere which doesnt sound like much but what is 2 -50 yard drives every game you lose during a 6-10 season  10*100  another 100 yards now your 3100 is 4100. Murray has 320 passes Allen has 240

[Wayne Arnold]

 

[Kmart128]

8 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

I agree on the Knox play, clear evidence he was short and the refs spotted it correctly.  No way that one is over turned.  On the PI yes clear evidence there was PI, but as about 100 others have already stated, pretty much none of the challenged PI calls are being overturned.  If I didn't know better I'd suspect collusion on the part of the officials.

 

No he landed on top of the player and extended a full yard past the first down marker. The ref spotted the ball based on where he landed on top of the redskins defender not where knox touched the ground.

 

And i know many PI arent being overturned but i think that was one of the obvious ones that woild have been overturned.

[thebandit27]

35 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

 

So the guy that was better than Mitchell in year 1 is also better than Mitchell in year 2.

[Wayne Arnold]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

So the guy that was better than Mitchell in year 1 is also better than Mitchell in year 2.

 

Better? Allen and Trubisky are mirror images of one another.

[thebandit27]

12 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Better? Allen and Trubisky are mirror images of one another.

 

Yes, better.

 

More yards, TDs, wins, higher passer rating, better rushing stats, etc.

 

Better

[Wayne Arnold]

34 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Yes, better.

 

More yards, TDs, wins, higher passer rating, better rushing stats, etc.

 

Better

lol

[syhuang]

23 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Better? Allen and Trubisky are mirror images of one another.

 

Are you implying if two QBs have similar passing yards, TDs, and INTs in year 2 while ignoring anything else, they will end up as similar QBs?

 

If so, do you want to guess who the following two QBs are with similar numbers in their sophomore seasons and whether they end up as similar QBs?

 

player A: 2843 passing yards, 63.9 comp%, 18 TDs, 12 INTs, QB rating: 86.5

player B: 2935 passing yards, 62.1 comp%, 18 TDs, 12 INTs, QB rating: 81.2

[thebandit27]

8 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

lol

 

You may not like it, but it is what it is

[Wayne Arnold]

1 minute ago, syhuang said:

 

Are you implying if two QBs have similar passing yards, TDs, and INTs in year 2 while ignoring anything else, they will end up as similar QBs?

 

If so, do you want to guess who the following two QBs are with similar numbers in their sophomore seasons and whether they end up as similar QBs?

 

player A: 2843 passing yards, 63.9 comp%, 18 TDs, 12 INTs, QB rating: 86.5

player B: 2935 passing yards, 62.1 comp%, 18 TDs, 12 INTs, QB rating: 81.2

 

I'm not implying anything about how Allen will end up.

[syhuang]

Just now, Wayne Arnold said:

 

I'm not implying anything about how Allen will end up.

 

great, then there is no reason to compare Allen and Trubisky by listing their year 2 stats side-by-side.