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Having a hard time talking myself out of 10 wins for this team...

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With the days winding down until training camp starts I'm becoming more and more convinced that only a rash of key injuries will prevent McD's third team from compiling at least 10 wins and a playoff spot.  The schedule is favorable, particularly early, which means an already established defense (boosted by Ed Oliver) should be able to not only hold their own but control games.  This is the third year for many of these guys in the defense.  The secondary is second to none (can this even be disputed?).  Edmunds got a "free" year of NFL schooling, added bulk, and should now be playing rather than thinking.  Milano was a budding star before his leg snapped.  If the offense merely improves from awful to average that should be good enough.  Special teams can't be worse -- the Bills added one of the premiere return men in the game and washed the stale taste of Danny Crossman from our mouths.  Heath Farwell is energetic and ambitious, he has the respect of players because he was one of them, and I think he'll have guys trying to run through walls for his ST.

 

And let's talk about the offense.  Last year it was bad.  Through nine games, historically bad.  But then something happened.  Josh Allen returned from injury and made plays.  Enough plays to show us what he's capable of (as well as what he needs to work on).  More importantly, he got eleven weeks of coaching and preparing for NFL competition as "the man."  Through the final seven weeks of the season the Bills bore resemblance to an NFL offense -- despite receiving some of the shoddiest OL play I've ever witnessed.

 

Fast forward to the offseason.  Two veteran receivers added, including an expected "safety valve" for Allen.  A top line center.  Loads of veteran competition along the OL along with a promising rookie draft pick.  A new OL coach who has been spoken of highly around the league.  Gore and Singletary.  Who here is going to predict that the offense will do anything but improve?

 

Everything I've seen/heard from Josh Allen suggests he is smart, competitive, and tough as nails.  His teammates already love him.  So yeah, if he can improve his numbers to something north of 55% completions, 3500 yards, and a 2.5-1 TD/INT ratio I think the Bills will be just fine.

 

Is this an indefensible "homer" post?  I really don't think so.  Tell me why expectations should be lowered.  And be civil.

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Posted (edited)

Good thing you threw a few names in there.  I thought you meant KC.  😁

Edited by Ridgewaycynic2013
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Posted (edited)

with my optimistic cap on  I can come up with 10 wins,  very optimistic hat 12 wins, very very optimistic hat 14 wins 

 

Edited by ShadyBillsFan
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I think on paper this team has enough playoff level talent.  The main factors that will determine playoffs for me are as follows:

 

1-Josh Allen Development

2-Can the offensive line gel quick enough

 

I don't expect much clarity to either of these items until midway through the season.  So my hopes are that the team can stay close to .500 while they come together.

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With a few breaks might get a couple more. I think we will sweep the Dolphins and jets and split with the Patriots

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7 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

It's all about allen. 

This year, and the next decade plus are all about Allen. PLEASE be the answer!!!

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I honestly sometimes wonder if we’re a 12 or 6 win team... I think Allen either goes off ala mahomes/wentz year two leaps, or he fizzles. He doesn’t seem like the “steady development” type to me. Obviously I’m hoping for the 12.

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Have to get off to a good start, 3-1 minimum.  Last 5 weeks of the season is brutal at Dallas, vs Ravens, at Pitt(haven't beat them in 20 years/haven't won in Pittsburgh since 1993), at New England and vs Jets.

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I can talk myself into 10 or 11 wins real easily..... on the other hand I can almost as easily talk myself into only 5-7 wins. 

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Gotta get those first 3 wins (Jets, Giants, Bungholes). If so, definitely 10 is doable.

FINALLY massively addressed the OL with a complete overhaul vs just adding one 3rd round guy each year like they've done the last 20 years. I love it.

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Posted (edited)

even as much as JA is judged and seen by some to not be the answer due to his inaccuracy, he is the very reason I have any optimism at all. sure, the defense may be stout but it's been too long since this team has had a leader at the QB position and one whom I believe has all the potential to lead the offense to success.

 

10 wins? the last time this team had a double digit win season was 1999, 20 years ago. they need to reach double digit wins, this season. it was bad enough having to live 17 years without seeing the post season but going past 20 years without double digit wins will seem worse to me.  the 20 year streak of single digit win seasons need to come to an end, it's time to compete!

Edited by DaBillsFanSince1973
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6 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

even as much as JA is judged and seen by some to not be the answer due to his inaccuracy, he is the very reason I have any optimism at all. sure, the defense may be stout but it's been too long since this team has had a leader at the QB position and one whom I believe has all the potential to lead the offense to success.

 

10 wins? the last time this team had a double digit win season was 1999, 20 years ago. they need to reach double digit wins, this season. it was bad enough having to live 17 years without seeing the post season but going past 20 years without double digit wins will seem worse to me.  the 20 year streak of single digit wins needs to come to an end, it's time to compete!

whether people believe in Allen or not, its really hard to ignore the teams record with him and then without him in games last year.

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Posted (edited)

I'll have what you're having. 

 

I have a feeling that our run game is going to greatly improve and that will help Josh immensely.  I will have my eye on the offensive line all TC this summer.  That will be the key.  

 

Watch Vosean Joseph, he is going to be a critical piece to the D imho.  Not as much as Oliver but VJ is going to complete the set.  

Edited by thunderingsquid
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The reason I am still a little nervous about committing to 10 wins is I think there remain a lot of questions about the offensive weaponary. The defense could still do with a little more pass rush but I am very high on Oliver and I think that unit will be a top 10 unit again (maybe not quite as high as #2) and I expect Josh Allen to play better (a Trubisky style year 2) and I think the offensive line will be improved but when I look around that at the offensive pieces:

 

RB:

McCoy - how much is left? I still think enough. But if I am wrong that is a worry.

Gore - hard yards guy still but the wall will come at some point. How long can he still play?

Singletary - can he be a 3 down back? I have my doubts.

 

WR:

Foster - I think he is going to really emerge this year as their #1 but what if he is a flash in the pan? He wouldn't be the first young unheralded receiver to fizzle and then fade.

Beasley - He is a good slot receiver, but is that the type of guy that Josh Allen is ever going to get the most out of?

Brown - Can play and if he ends up as a #2 or #3 option he will contribute. Worried if he has to be the guy.

Jones - his NFL career is on the line - can he make the big jump he needs to in terms of getting open and catching the ball?

 

TE:

Kroft - I like him quite a bit and think he is underrated by many here but can he get and then stay healthy? Major question mark at this point.

Knox - I like him a lot too but he is a raw, high ceiling guy. The plan was undoubtedly to bring him on slowly in 2019 and have him win the job next offseason.

Croom - I like him less than Pegula's daughter.

 

Can the Bills cobble together enough offense from those guys without Josh needing to force it and play hero ball every single week? If they can then I think they will, on this schedule, win 10 games and could even win 11 or 12. If they can't then they will end up 7-9 or 8-8.

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Posted (edited)

original post is well thought through and makes a good case for ten wins.  I am a bit of a contrarian. I think the offense assuming proper coaching will be above NFL average. I expect Allen’s floor this season to be an average Brett Farve season and his ceiling  to be a good Steve Young season. I think people  are overly optimistic about the defense I don’t. Expect in his rookie season for Oliver to be a an upgrade over kyle Williams I am concerned that without KYLE and after getting paid Hughes will be less productive. 

 

 

My biggest concern is coaching. I think McDermott has a tendency towards blind spots the biggest being his terrible assessment of NATE Peterman. I don’t consider him a proven head coach. 

Edited by PlayoffsPlease
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48 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

It's all about allen. 

 

Yep, if he's only a 50% passer again, it's 6-7 wins.

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28 minutes ago, BuffaloBillies said:

Gotta get those first 3 wins (Jets, Giants, Bungholes). If so, definitely 10 is doable.

FINALLY massively addressed the OL with a complete overhaul vs just adding one 3rd round guy each year like they've done the last 20 years. I love it.

 

Saquon Barkley lookin at that Bills run D...

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I think it will take a while and maybe a couple moves for the OL to jell.

 

I’m also not sure about the WR’s. I think Beasley is vastly overrated by this fanbase, and there’s no guarantee that Foster and Zay will progress. John Brown is nice, but I don’t know that he will be enough of a difference maker.

 

That being said, I think both units will be improved over last year’s, and the schedule looks good in July. I believe in Josh, and if things break right, I can see a playoff team this year.

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53 minutes ago, eball said:

With the days winding down until training camp starts I'm becoming more and more convinced that only a rash of key injuries will prevent McD's third team from compiling at least 10 wins and a playoff spot.  The schedule is favorable, particularly early, which means an already established defense (boosted by Ed Oliver) should be able to not only hold their own but control games.  This is the third year for many of these guys in the defense.  The secondary is second to none (can this even be disputed?).  Edmunds got a "free" year of NFL schooling, added bulk, and should now be playing rather than thinking.  Milano was a budding star before his leg snapped.  If the offense merely improves from awful to average that should be good enough.  Special teams can't be worse -- the Bills added one of the premiere return men in the game and washed the stale taste of Danny Crossman from our mouths.  Heath Farwell is energetic and ambitious, he has the respect of players because he was one of them, and I think he'll have guys trying to run through walls for his ST.

 

And let's talk about the offense.  Last year it was bad.  Through nine games, historically bad.  But then something happened.  Josh Allen returned from injury and made plays.  Enough plays to show us what he's capable of (as well as what he needs to work on).  More importantly, he got eleven weeks of coaching and preparing for NFL competition as "the man."  Through the final seven weeks of the season the Bills bore resemblance to an NFL offense -- despite receiving some of the shoddiest OL play I've ever witnessed.

 

Fast forward to the offseason.  Two veteran receivers added, including an expected "safety valve" for Allen.  A top line center.  Loads of veteran competition along the OL along with a promising rookie draft pick.  A new OL coach who has been spoken of highly around the league.  Gore and Singletary.  Who here is going to predict that the offense will do anything but improve?

 

Everything I've seen/heard from Josh Allen suggests he is smart, competitive, and tough as nails.  His teammates already love him.  So yeah, if he can improve his numbers to something north of 55% completions, 3500 yards, and a 2.5-1 TD/INT ratio I think the Bills will be just fine.

 

Is this an indefensible "homer" post?  I really don't think so.  Tell me why expectations should be lowered.  And be civil.

 

 

Barring unforeseen injury to Allen,  there is no excuse for McBeane not getting to 10 wins this season.    They exposed us to A LOT of bad football(particularly on offense) the past two seasons to get to this point.........and they have had virtually no free agents for two offseasons and spent TONS of Pegula-Bucks in FA and had high draft picks and have about as easy of a schedule as you could ask for.    Whether 10 wins gets you into the playoffs in the AFC is another matter.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

with my optimistic cap on  I can come up with 10 wins,  very optimistic hat 12 wins, very very optimistic hat 14 wins 

 

My realistic cap says 9.

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1 hour ago, ALLEN1QB said:

With a few breaks might get a couple more. I think we will sweep the Dolphins and jets and split with the Patriots

 5-1 in the AFC East?  Seriously?

 

I am saying 3-3

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2 hours ago, eball said:

With the days winding down until training camp starts I'm becoming more and more convinced that only a rash of key injuries will prevent McD's third team from compiling at least 10 wins and a playoff spot.  The schedule is favorable, particularly early, which means an already established defense (boosted by Ed Oliver) should be able to not only hold their own but control games.  This is the third year for many of these guys in the defense.  The secondary is second to none (can this even be disputed?).  Edmunds got a "free" year of NFL schooling, added bulk, and should now be playing rather than thinking.  Milano was a budding star before his leg snapped.  If the offense merely improves from awful to average that should be good enough.  Special teams can't be worse -- the Bills added one of the premiere return men in the game and washed the stale taste of Danny Crossman from our mouths.  Heath Farwell is energetic and ambitious, he has the respect of players because he was one of them, and I think he'll have guys trying to run through walls for his ST.

 

And let's talk about the offense.  Last year it was bad.  Through nine games, historically bad.  But then something happened.  Josh Allen returned from injury and made plays.  Enough plays to show us what he's capable of (as well as what he needs to work on).  More importantly, he got eleven weeks of coaching and preparing for NFL competition as "the man."  Through the final seven weeks of the season the Bills bore resemblance to an NFL offense -- despite receiving some of the shoddiest OL play I've ever witnessed.

 

Fast forward to the offseason.  Two veteran receivers added, including an expected "safety valve" for Allen.  A top line center.  Loads of veteran competition along the OL along with a promising rookie draft pick.  A new OL coach who has been spoken of highly around the league.  Gore and Singletary.  Who here is going to predict that the offense will do anything but improve?

 

Everything I've seen/heard from Josh Allen suggests he is smart, competitive, and tough as nails.  His teammates already love him.  So yeah, if he can improve his numbers to something north of 55% completions, 3500 yards, and a 2.5-1 TD/INT ratio I think the Bills will be just fine.

 

Is this an indefensible "homer" post?  I really don't think so.  Tell me why expectations should be lowered.  And be civil.

Image result for seinfeld thats a shame gif

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1 hour ago, eball said:

With the days winding down until training camp starts I'm becoming more and more convinced that only a rash of key injuries will prevent McD's third team from compiling at least 10 wins and a playoff spot.  The schedule is favorable, particularly early, which means an already established defense (boosted by Ed Oliver) should be able to not only hold their own but control games.  This is the third year for many of these guys in the defense.  The secondary is second to none (can this even be disputed?).  Edmunds got a "free" year of NFL schooling, added bulk, and should now be playing rather than thinking.  Milano was a budding star before his leg snapped.  If the offense merely improves from awful to average that should be good enough.  Special teams can't be worse -- the Bills added one of the premiere return men in the game and washed the stale taste of Danny Crossman from our mouths.  Heath Farwell is energetic and ambitious, he has the respect of players because he was one of them, and I think he'll have guys trying to run through walls for his ST.

 

And let's talk about the offense.  Last year it was bad.  Through nine games, historically bad.  But then something happened.  Josh Allen returned from injury and made plays.  Enough plays to show us what he's capable of (as well as what he needs to work on).  More importantly, he got eleven weeks of coaching and preparing for NFL competition as "the man."  Through the final seven weeks of the season the Bills bore resemblance to an NFL offense -- despite receiving some of the shoddiest OL play I've ever witnessed.

 

Fast forward to the offseason.  Two veteran receivers added, including an expected "safety valve" for Allen.  A top line center.  Loads of veteran competition along the OL along with a promising rookie draft pick.  A new OL coach who has been spoken of highly around the league.  Gore and Singletary.  Who here is going to predict that the offense will do anything but improve?

 

Everything I've seen/heard from Josh Allen suggests he is smart, competitive, and tough as nails.  His teammates already love him.  So yeah, if he can improve his numbers to something north of 55% completions, 3500 yards, and a 2.5-1 TD/INT ratio I think the Bills will be just fine.

 

Is this an indefensible "homer" post?  I really don't think so.  Tell me why expectations should be lowered.  And be civil.

 

I'm certain a couple people will be here to talk you out of it.

 

As Playoffs Please mentioned, Hughes' getting paid worries me.  That's not a knock on Hughes; I'm a big fan.

Our elderly RB situation also concerns me.  As unpopular as my opinion is, I think McCoy is done.  I thought he was done at the end of 2017 and he certainly didn't prove me wrong last year.  Also not a knock; I'm a big McCoy fan, too.  I just think he's toast.  I do have high hopes for Gore, though.

 

I feel good about the pass catchers; I think we'll end up with an upgrade, there.  Knox is a question mark and, as Gunner Bill mentioned upstream, Kroft's health is also a question mark.

 

I think the O line will be an upgrade.

 

Outside of not taking the field at all, Special Teams HAS to be an upgrade.

 

And Allen ... I love the kid.  But he needs to be better and make better decisions faster.  He needs to be able to throw the 5-10 yard (in the air) passes with consistent accuracy.  If he doesn't improve in that area, that will put reaching 10 games in the most danger.

 

I'm optimistic that he will show forward progress and his decision-making and accuracy will be better.  That's all I'm looking for.

 

If he does that and his supporting cast stays reasonably healthy, I don't see why the Bills can't get 10 wins.

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