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Having a hard time talking myself out of 10 wins for this team...

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10 wins?  I'm just praying they're still 'In The Hunt' when I go to Dallas for Thanksgiving.

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4 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 5-1 in the AFC East?  Seriously?

 

I am saying 3-3

Well I actually think we go

6-0 but because of Party Poopers like you I said 5-1

Edited by ALLEN1QB

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5 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

with my optimistic cap on  I can come up with 10 wins,  very optimistic hat 12 wins, very very optimistic hat 14 wins 

 

With my Super-D-Duper optimistic hat Im at 19-0 baby!

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6 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

with my optimistic cap on  I can come up with 10 wins,  very optimistic hat 12 wins, very very optimistic hat 14 wins 

 

 

Are you sure this is the right thread? This sounds like a strange thought from a mind in an altered state. 

 

I hope one day you make me eat those words!   😋

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Love the OP.  While I tend to veer homer, I do think there is a strong foundation for optimism this season.

 

A lot of it comes down to how much trust any of us put into Beane and his vision.  This season is a sort of early culmination of the work he has put in - dumping bloated contracts, trading players, investing in a top QB prospect, etc.   

 

I believe in Beane.  The table is now set, and it’s coinciding nicely with what I anticipate will be at least a slight decline in the biggest obstacle we’ve had over the years in the Patriots.

 

Anything less than 10 wins would be a big surprise to me, and obviously disappointing.

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3 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

If Allen takes the next step and improves they’ll win 10+ games.  Pretty simple. 

 

 

...if not., put 'em between the pipes for the Sabres......you never know....

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Too many indicators pointing up for me to be pessimistic. From the roster remake to the schedule. And I'm not bowing to the aging Patriots. In fact I put money on the Bills winning the division.

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6 hours ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

original post is well thought through and makes a good case for ten wins.  I am a bit of a contrarian. I think the offense assuming proper coaching will be above NFL average. I expect Allen’s floor this season to be an average Brett Farve season and his ceiling  to be a good Steve Young season. I think people  are overly optimistic about the defense I don’t. Expect in his rookie season for Oliver to be a an upgrade over kyle Williams I am concerned that without KYLE and after getting paid Hughes will be less productive. 

 

 

My biggest concern is coaching. I think McDermott has a tendency towards blind spots the biggest being his terrible assessment of NATE Peterman. I don’t consider him a proven head coach. 

Disagree, on Oliver. While I loved meatball as much as the next Bills fan he had lost a step and it showed. Oliver and Phillips can more than man the 3 technique and if Harrison Phillips can show anything at all I think they are fine. I also think Trent Murphy has a little more sizzle to him than a lot of fans think. 10 sacks for Hughes and 5-7 for Murphy this year. Lawson will chip in 3-4. Oliver at +/- 5 seems right. I'm more worried about the space eater 1 technique with Star L.

 

LB is a question mark. I haven't been a big Edmunds guy, but he improved and looked pretty good by season end. He is a good pass defender. Milano is a personal favorite, I hope he is recovered. What does Lorax have left? V Joseph and Siran Neal may surprise.

 

Other than S depth the secondary will cut potential nickel/ boundary guys for other teams. Solid.

 

8-10 wins. I have guessed 5 each of the last two years.

 

8-8, no blow outs, a few guys emerge and JA improves and I am ok. 10+ and playoffs and I'm very happy.

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2 minutes ago, RocCityRoller said:

Disagree, on Oliver. While I loved meatball as much as the next Bills fan he had lost a step and it showed. Oliver and Phillips can more than man the 3 technique and if Harrison Phillips can show anything at all I think they are fine. I also think Trent Murphy has a little more sizzle to him than a lot of fans think. 10 sacks for Hughes and 5-7 for Murphy this year. Lawson will chip in 3-4. Oliver at +/- 5 seems right. I'm more worried about the space eater 1 technique with Star L.

 

LB is a question mark. I haven't been a big Edmunds guy, but he improved and looked pretty good by season end. He is a good pass defender. Milano is a personal favorite, I hope he is recovered. What does Lorax have left? V Joseph and Siran Neal may surprise.

 

Other than S depth the secondary will cut potential nickel/ boundary guys for other teams. Solid.

 

8-10 wins. I have guessed 5 each of the last two years.

 

8-8, no blow outs, a few guys emerge and JA improves and I am ok. 10+ and playoffs and I'm very happy.

...so the obvious next questions....8 "W's" means no playoffs....10 "W's" is a legitimate chance.....9 is borderline......so if it's 8 or "borderline 9", are you inclined to keep McBeane/McDermott knowing that 2019 is a multitude of changes, albeit roster and/or coaches, or are you of the "fire everybody" camp?....

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3 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

If Allen takes the next step and improves they’ll win 10+ games.  Pretty simple. 

If Allen is great, then they win 10+ games. Just “ takes the next step and improves “ doesn’t get them there. 

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4 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

...so the obvious next questions....8 "W's" means no playoffs....10 "W's" is a legitimate chance.....9 is borderline......so if it's 8 or "borderline 9", are you inclined to keep McBeane/McDermott knowing that 2019 is a multitude of changes, albeit roster and/or coaches, or are you of the "fire everybody" camp?....

 

so if it's 8-9, but the team shows progress. No blow out losses, no losses where the Bills get run over for 200 yards, keep.

 

I'm not happy at 8, but injuries happen, a guy does not pan out, bounces don't go the Bills way.

 

Less than 8 wins, without a major injury and I am more concerned.

 

I'm all for a 5 year tryout with McBeane. Got to let the plan gel.

 

I like the direction, and I have patience.

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10 minutes ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

so if it's 8-9, but the team shows progress. No blow out losses, no losses where the Bills get run over for 200 yards, keep.

 

I'm not happy at 8, but injuries happen, a guy does not pan out, bounces don't go the Bills way.

 

Less than 8 wins, without a major injury and I am more concerned.

 

I'm all for a 5 year tryout with McBeane. Got to let the plan gel.

 

I like the direction, and I have patience.

 

...so do I and I think you you have a reasonable, spot on assessment.......

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23 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

If Allen is great, then they win 10+ games. Just “ takes the next step and improves “ doesn’t get them there. 

 

Unless he gets help from those around him - ie. Foster emerges or one of Brown / Beasley has a career year or Shady bounces back to his best.... I agree just Josh playing hero ball all the time but doing it a bit better than last year isn't 10 wins. He has to get better and he needs a bit of help. 

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7 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

whether people believe in Allen or not, its really hard to ignore the teams record with him and then without him in games last year.

Same thing could be said about Barkley.

 

I think a good deal of the improvement will depend on the new coaches hired.  Some of the coaches IMO were not very good and that hurt development.

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The margin between 10-6 and 6-10 is so slim.  There is zero momentum season to season.  Every other team in the league has promising rookies and second year guys poised to make the leap.  I'm optimistic but I do not see 10 wins unless everything bounces right.

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7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The reason I am still a little nervous about committing to 10 wins is I think there remain a lot of questions about the offensive weaponary. The defense could still do with a little more pass rush but I am very high on Oliver and I think that unit will be a top 10 unit again (maybe not quite as high as #2) and I expect Josh Allen to play better (a Trubisky style year 2) and I think the offensive line will be improved but when I look around that at the offensive pieces:

 

RB:

McCoy - how much is left? I still think enough. But if I am wrong that is a worry.

Gore - hard yards guy still but the wall will come at some point. How long can he still play?

Singletary - can he be a 3 down back? I have my doubts.

 

WR:

Foster - I think he is going to really emerge this year as their #1 but what if he is a flash in the pan? He wouldn't be the first young unheralded receiver to fizzle and then fade.

Beasley - He is a good slot receiver, but is that the type of guy that Josh Allen is ever going to get the most out of?

Brown - Can play and if he ends up as a #2 or #3 option he will contribute. Worried if he has to be the guy.

Jones - his NFL career is on the line - can he make the big jump he needs to in terms of getting open and catching the ball?

 

TE:

Kroft - I like him quite a bit and think he is underrated by many here but can he get and then stay healthy? Major question mark at this point.

Knox - I like him a lot too but he is a raw, high ceiling guy. The plan was undoubtedly to bring him on slowly in 2019 and have him win the job next offseason.

Croom - I like him less than Pegula's daughter.

 

Can the Bills cobble together enough offense from those guys without Josh needing to force it and play hero ball every single week? If they can then I think they will, on this schedule, win 10 games and could even win 11 or 12. If they can't then they will end up 7-9 or 8-8.

This is where I'm at.

 

Just not optimistic about the skills position players on this team particularly at WR and TE.  There is no true #1 reciever on the team. A bunch of #2 and #3 guys. 

 

If the offensive line gels and performs well early I like their changes to have a winning season if Allen can continue his trajectory. 

 

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5 hours ago, eball said:

 

Josh turned Zay Jones into a threat over the final five weeks of the season.

 

Just sayin'... ;)

Well he tried.

 

Zay was mostly terrible against the Lions, Jets, and Patriots. 

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10 hours ago, Jobot said:

I think on paper this team has enough playoff level talent.  The main factors that will determine playoffs for me are as follows:

 

1-Josh Allen Development

2-Can the offensive line gel quick enough

 

I don't expect much clarity to either of these items until midway through the season.  So my hopes are that the team can stay close to .500 while they come together.

I think I would rephrase the second point.  

 

1-Josh Allen development

2-Did Beane get enough support pieces for Allen on offense, AND can the new starters gel quickly enough.  

 

The offensive line is very important, but Allen has to be able to develop chemistry with all the new skill position players too.

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11 hours ago, Augie said:

This year, and the next decade plus are all about Allen. PLEASE be the answer!!!

 

If he is the answer, ANYTHING is possible.

 

Hopefully his receivers will start creating more separation. If that happens............ WATCH OUT.

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Well he tried.

 

Zay was mostly terrible against the Lions, Jets, and Patriots. 

 

Jones did have 7 TD's last year, but consistency is going to be key, obviously.

 

He can't have great games against the Dolphins and then disappear against NE. That won't cut it.

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1 minute ago, njbuff said:

 

If he is the answer, ANYTHING is possible.

 

Hopefully his receivers will start creating more separation. If that happens............ WATCH OUT.

Agreed, and if he sees and hits the guys open UNDER 20 yards downfield, we could be really good. My biggest fear is his recognition and accuracy on these shorter throws. He’s got the cannon, I pray he has the vision and precision. Hard not to love the guy. 

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