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Having a hard time talking myself out of 10 wins for this team...

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7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The reason I am still a little nervous about committing to 10 wins is I think there remain a lot of questions about the offensive weaponary. The defense could still do with a little more pass rush but I am very high on Oliver and I think that unit will be a top 10 unit again (maybe not quite as high as #2) and I expect Josh Allen to play better (a Trubisky style year 2) and I think the offensive line will be improved but when I look around that at the offensive pieces:

 

RB:

McCoy - how much is left? I still think enough. But if I am wrong that is a worry.

Gore - hard yards guy still but the wall will come at some point. How long can he still play?

Singletary - can he be a 3 down back? I have my doubts.

 

WR:

Foster - I think he is going to really emerge this year as their #1 but what if he is a flash in the pan? He wouldn't be the first young unheralded receiver to fizzle and then fade.

Beasley - He is a good slot receiver, but is that the type of guy that Josh Allen is ever going to get the most out of?

Brown - Can play and if he ends up as a #2 or #3 option he will contribute. Worried if he has to be the guy.

Jones - his NFL career is on the line - can he make the big jump he needs to in terms of getting open and catching the ball?

 

TE:

Kroft - I like him quite a bit and think he is underrated by many here but can he get and then stay healthy? Major question mark at this point.

Knox - I like him a lot too but he is a raw, high ceiling guy. The plan was undoubtedly to bring him on slowly in 2019 and have him win the job next offseason.

Croom - I like him less than Pegula's daughter.

 

Can the Bills cobble together enough offense from those guys without Josh needing to force it and play hero ball every single week? If they can then I think they will, on this schedule, win 10 games and could even win 11 or 12. If they can't then they will end up 7-9 or 8-8.

This is where I'm at.

 

Just not optimistic about the skills position players on this team particularly at WR and TE.  There is no true #1 reciever on the team. A bunch of #2 and #3 guys. 

 

If the offensive line gels and performs well early I like their changes to have a winning season if Allen can continue his trajectory. 

 

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5 hours ago, eball said:

 

Josh turned Zay Jones into a threat over the final five weeks of the season.

 

Just sayin'... ;)

Well he tried.

 

Zay was mostly terrible against the Lions, Jets, and Patriots. 

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10 hours ago, Jobot said:

I think on paper this team has enough playoff level talent.  The main factors that will determine playoffs for me are as follows:

 

1-Josh Allen Development

2-Can the offensive line gel quick enough

 

I don't expect much clarity to either of these items until midway through the season.  So my hopes are that the team can stay close to .500 while they come together.

I think I would rephrase the second point.  

 

1-Josh Allen development

2-Did Beane get enough support pieces for Allen on offense, AND can the new starters gel quickly enough.  

 

The offensive line is very important, but Allen has to be able to develop chemistry with all the new skill position players too.

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11 hours ago, Augie said:

This year, and the next decade plus are all about Allen. PLEASE be the answer!!!

 

If he is the answer, ANYTHING is possible.

 

Hopefully his receivers will start creating more separation. If that happens............ WATCH OUT.

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Well he tried.

 

Zay was mostly terrible against the Lions, Jets, and Patriots. 

 

Jones did have 7 TD's last year, but consistency is going to be key, obviously.

 

He can't have great games against the Dolphins and then disappear against NE. That won't cut it.

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1 minute ago, njbuff said:

 

If he is the answer, ANYTHING is possible.

 

Hopefully his receivers will start creating more separation. If that happens............ WATCH OUT.

Agreed, and if he sees and hits the guys open UNDER 20 yards downfield, we could be really good. My biggest fear is his recognition and accuracy on these shorter throws. He’s got the cannon, I pray he has the vision and precision. Hard not to love the guy. 

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Posted (edited)

Dolphins,Eagles,Redskins .3 straight home games around Halloween.

We won those games..10-6.

I'm thinking 8-8.

 

Edited by Misterbluesky
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12 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

with my optimistic cap on  I can come up with 10 wins,  very optimistic hat 12 wins, very very optimistic hat 14 wins 

 

 

Anyone thinking 14 wins is remotely possible is absolutely insane.

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, eball said:

Having a hard time talking myself out of 10 wins for this team...

 

 

Nothing wrong with having expectations that are kinda unrealistic as long as you don't piss and whinge at 8 or 9 wins if that's what happens. If you're one of those who would react to 8 or 9 wins with, "I can't believe they didn't win 10 with so much talent," then yeah, you'd be falling prey to confirmation bias.

 

10 wins doesn't seem impossible or even close to it, but there's a reason that when you look around at the pundits, at Vegas ... everywhere, really ... that very few are predicting that.

 

Yeah, the schedule's easy early. But it's hard late. The OL looks much improved, but based on history will take time to gel. We've got a 2nd year QB. I'd expect a really good defense, and an improved offense, but not as much as you're predicting. Long as you don't bet the farm, though ...

 

My guess is 7 to 9 wins. If no real key injuries, I'd throw out the 7. An 8 - 9 win season with improvement by Allen, especially in accuracy, would really be a great sign for the future

.

 

 

Edited by Thurman#1
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12 hours ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

original post is well thought through and makes a good case for ten wins.  I am a bit of a contrarian. I think the offense assuming proper coaching will be above NFL average. I expect Allen’s floor this season to be an average Brett Farve season and his ceiling  to be a good Steve Young season. I think people  are overly optimistic about the defense I don’t. Expect in his rookie season for Oliver to be a an upgrade over kyle Williams I am concerned that without KYLE and after getting paid Hughes will be less productive. 

 

 

My biggest concern is coaching. I think McDermott has a tendency towards blind spots the biggest being his terrible assessment of NATE Peterman. I don’t consider him a proven head coach. 

An upgrade to 2014 KW no, an upgrade to 2018 KW yes.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Well he tried.

 

Zay was mostly terrible against the Lions, Jets, and Patriots. 

 

 

No, he really wasn't. Not getting thrown to much doesn't make you terrible. Nor does having the ball not reach your catch radius, which happened several times in those games, especially when he was followed around the whole game against Detroit, by Slay, an elite CB.

 

The NE game was very solid, where he caught 5 of 9 targets for 67 yards and a TD. Oh, wait, are you one of those guys who wants to say, "Yeah, but if you take out the plays that are inconvenient for my argument, then after that his game looks bad? 'Cause you're right. I won't even argue that. If you take out the productive plays, the plays people who don't like Zay would rather not consider, then yeah, what's left doesn't look that good. 'Course, the same would be true of any reciever if you don't look at his most productive plays.

 

Pretty much everyone knows Zay got a lot better late in the season. Not that he didn't have bad games and good games. But overall, he got better.

 

Got a quick quote for you:

 

"I think we all can agree that Zay Jones is trending up."

 

-  Brandon Beane in the 2018 post-season press conference

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/12/31/18163024/buffalo-bills-end-of-season-press-conference-open-thread-sean-mcdermott-brandon-beane-josh-allen

 

When he said it, not a single reporter disagreed, then or in print. Pretty much all of us do agree that Zay is trending up.

 

Edited by Thurman#1
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45 minutes ago, Ol Dirty B said:

 

Anyone thinking 14 wins is remotely possible is absolutely insane.

 

And my guess from your posts that you think 0 wins is more likely.

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1 minute ago, Limeaid said:

 

And my guess from your posts that you think 0 wins is more likely.

 

I won't take the bait but I think anywhere between 7-9 wins is realistic. You're really going to troll me over saying 14 wins is insane?

4 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

And my guess from your posts that you think 0 wins is more likely.

 

You realize we're talking the Bills and not the Sabres right?

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6 hours ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

so if it's 8-9, but the team shows progress. No blow out losses, no losses where the Bills get run over for 200 yards, keep.

 

I'm not happy at 8, but injuries happen, a guy does not pan out, bounces don't go the Bills way.

 

Less than 8 wins, without a major injury and I am more concerned.

 

I'm all for a 5 year tryout with McBeane. Got to let the plan gel.

 

I like the direction, and I have patience.

 

 

Love your last sentence. Me too.

 

But I'd expect a blowout loss. Why wouldn't you? Every team gets 'em. The Pats were squashed 34-10 last year against Tennessee. It happens. And Miami put up 189 yards of rushing on the Bradys, and the Fins aren't exactly a rushing juggernaut. Bad games happen. It's when they happen often or consistently that you need to worry.

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36 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Nothing wrong with having expectations that are a bit unrealistic as long as you don't B word at the results or blame the team for "only" winning 8 or 9 with "so much talent," if that's what happens.

10 wins doesn't seem impossible or even close to it, but there's a reason that when you look around at the pundits, at Vegas ... everywhere, really ... that very few are predicting that.

Yeah, the schedule's easy early. But it's hard late. The OL looks much improved, but based on history will take time to gel. We've got a 2nd year QB. I'd expect a really good defense, and an improved offense, but not as much as you're predicting. Long as you don't bet the farm, though ...

 

My guess is 7 - 9. If no real key injuries, I'd throw out the 7. An 8 - 9 win season with improvement by Allen, especially in accuracy, would really be a great sign.

 

 

Vegas doesnt know and neither do we.  The potential is there to do it.  But there is an awful lot of roster turn over.  More than I recall ever seeing.  If this roster gels quick it will be something special.

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7 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

...so the obvious next questions....8 "W's" means no playoffs....10 "W's" is a legitimate chance.....9 is borderline......so if it's 8 or "borderline 9", are you inclined to keep McBeane/McDermott knowing that 2019 is a multitude of changes, albeit roster and/or coaches, or are you of the "fire everybody" camp?....

I'll chime in on this one, too.

 

Only way McBeane DOES NOT get another season at the helm is if the team implodes and fields an unwatchable product (see also: September & October 2018 (minus Minnesota) and November 2017). Those stretches of embarrassing ineptitude cannot continue. 

 

But short of that kind of failure, I don't see McBeane on the hot seat at all. 

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1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Nothing wrong with having expectations that are kinda unrealistic as long as you don't piss and whinge at 8 or 9 wins if that's what happens. If you're one of those who would react to 8 or 9 wins with, "I can't believe they didn't win 10 with so much talent," then yeah, you'd be falling prey to confirmation bias.

 

10 wins doesn't seem impossible or even close to it, but there's a reason that when you look around at the pundits, at Vegas ... everywhere, really ... that very few are predicting that.

 

Yeah, the schedule's easy early. But it's hard late. The OL looks much improved, but based on history will take time to gel. We've got a 2nd year QB. I'd expect a really good defense, and an improved offense, but not as much as you're predicting. Long as you don't bet the farm, though ...

 

My guess is 7 to 9 wins. If no real key injuries, I'd throw out the 7. An 8 - 9 win season with improvement by Allen, especially in accuracy, would really be a great sign for the future

.

 

 

Looking at the bolded in particular: over the last decade, Vegas has actually been MOST accurate (in the entire NFL) when predicting the Bills W/L record, according to https://nationalfootballpost.com/win-totals/. Now I know past results do not necessarily predict future outcomes, but we should not so casually dismiss the Vegas predictions. Unlike sports writers and fans, the casinos have quantifiable skin in the game. 

 

There are myriad scenarios (injuries, historically inconsistent defensive results from year-to-year, lack of progression from young players, etc.) wherein the Bills fall short of ten wins. Ten wins would mean that nearly every ? on the team becomes a + in 2019. It CAN happen. But it's not statistically likely. 

 

That being said, go Bills. Win the bleeping division.

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I bet the over 7 wins for Buffalo. I was 2 for 2 last year on my NFL season total bets. That being said, I hope I didn't jinx it. Jinxes aren't real though. 

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5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

10 wins doesn't seem impossible or even close to it, but there's a reason that when you look around at the pundits, at Vegas ... everywhere, really ... that very few are predicting that.

 

The Vegas odds have very little to do with "predictions" -- we all know that the public bias outside of WNY is that the Bills are horrible.

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22 hours ago, eball said:

With the days winding down until training camp starts I'm becoming more and more convinced that only a rash of key injuries will prevent McD's third team from compiling at least 10 wins and a playoff spot.  The schedule is favorable, particularly early, which means an already established defense (boosted by Ed Oliver) should be able to not only hold their own but control games.  This is the third year for many of these guys in the defense.  The secondary is second to none (can this even be disputed?).  Edmunds got a "free" year of NFL schooling, added bulk, and should now be playing rather than thinking.  Milano was a budding star before his leg snapped.  If the offense merely improves from awful to average that should be good enough.  Special teams can't be worse -- the Bills added one of the premiere return men in the game and washed the stale taste of Danny Crossman from our mouths.  Heath Farwell is energetic and ambitious, he has the respect of players because he was one of them, and I think he'll have guys trying to run through walls for his ST.

 

And let's talk about the offense.  Last year it was bad.  Through nine games, historically bad.  But then something happened.  Josh Allen returned from injury and made plays.  Enough plays to show us what he's capable of (as well as what he needs to work on).  More importantly, he got eleven weeks of coaching and preparing for NFL competition as "the man."  Through the final seven weeks of the season the Bills bore resemblance to an NFL offense -- despite receiving some of the shoddiest OL play I've ever witnessed.

 

Fast forward to the offseason.  Two veteran receivers added, including an expected "safety valve" for Allen.  A top line center.  Loads of veteran competition along the OL along with a promising rookie draft pick.  A new OL coach who has been spoken of highly around the league.  Gore and Singletary.  Who here is going to predict that the offense will do anything but improve?

 

Everything I've seen/heard from Josh Allen suggests he is smart, competitive, and tough as nails.  His teammates already love him.  So yeah, if he can improve his numbers to something north of 55% completions, 3500 yards, and a 2.5-1 TD/INT ratio I think the Bills will be just fine.

 

Is this an indefensible "homer" post?  I really don't think so.  Tell me why expectations should be lowered.  And be civil.

Great points I pretty much been in the same boat, I'm cautiously optimistic because of the past but there's just so many areas of the team trending upwards. 

 

Also , we have great coaching imo. McDermott is a natural n I feel will be a staple here for a long time. He has assembled quality coaching throughout this roster. It's going to be a helluva year

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I'm taking the over on Bills winning 10.  If Buffalo can stay healthy, and Josh continues to develop, and our D can improve with Oliver and company, we will be one of top teams in NFL IMO.   That's a lot of if's.  But this is the deepest Bills team I have seen since the 90's.  We will run the ball.  We will play tough D.  And we will be ready to play.  This is a new Bills team and a new Bills era.  We are starved for a great Bills team.  This Bills team has swag, and some great leaders with Josh, Lorenzo, and Tra'Davious.  Just my opinion, but I expect big things from Josh and our Bills. 

 

Let's go Buffalo!

 

Sabres are making some nice moves too.  The City of Buffalo's arrow is pointing up!

 

Disclaimer- I am a hopeless optimist for Buffalo, and have been wrong many, many preseason before

Edited by Pete
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23 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Good thing you threw a few names in there.  I thought you meant KC.  😁

We have KC's starting Center.  No Kareem Hunt.  No Tyreek.   That's 3 huge losses for Mahomes.

 

Me myself, I will take Buffalo's roster and cap situation over KC all day

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2 hours ago, Another Fan said:

The realistic part of me thinks 8-8

Me too. 

 

But the other part of me thinks they will have 10 wins by Thanksgiving night and really start rolling after that. 

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For the past 59 years I've gone into each season optimistic (even as a 5 year old that first year).  I have a hard time seeing them get to 10 wins (given they already have two losses penciled in with the Pats, who as long as the y have Brady and Belichick I'll continue to write off), but anything's possible!  I think a 9-7 record and playoff appearance is in the cards.

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