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Having a hard time talking myself out of 10 wins for this team...

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7 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think the Bills will be a lot better this season, and I expect them to beat the Patriots once this season.   It's a real benefit to get them at home early in the season.  The pats always improve a lot when as the season progresses; every year they look beatable and actually lose a few in the first six weeks.   

 

Still, I don't see the Bills being much better than 9-7.  Sure, they've gotten better, but the league improves every year, and winning isn't going to be easy. 

 

 

Not so sure about that.  We have almost an entirely new offensive line, new WRs , TEs, i think the Bills could be very very shakey on offense for mutliple weeks to start the season, sure hope I am wrong.  

2 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Ed Oliver is nothing?  H. Phillips will now be in year 2.  J. Phillips I believe will be improved as will Edmunds.  I dont quite get your did nothing to improve statement.  They did what they needed to the D last offseason and added a few pieces this offseason, while focusing on the O. An improved Offense was the best possible thing that could be done for the D.  Unless you dont think the amount of time the O spends on the field effects the D.

 

I dont think a rookie Ed Oliver is well suited to stop the run, esp versus brady/belichek.  Edmunds improvement is extremely critical, that i agree with, let see if it happens.  Yes other players can improve, hopefully.  At the same time, the PAts O line should be stronger and they added real depth.

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6 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 

 

Not so sure about that.  We have almost an entirely new offensive line, new WRs , TEs, i think the Bills could be very very shakey on offense for mutliple weeks to start the season, sure hope I am wrong.  

 

I dont think a rookie Ed Oliver is well suited to stop the run, esp versus brady/belichek.  Edmunds improvement is extremely critical, that i agree with, let see if it happens.  Yes other players can improve, hopefully.  At the same time, the PAts O line should be stronger and they added real depth.

And the improvements to our Offense, which believe it or not is the most critical element I stated.  And Ed Oliver was a man among boys in college, they couldnt stop him at times with triple teams.  Maybe Im wrong but we are probably talking about the NFL DROY.

Edited by formerlyofCtown

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24 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think the Bills will be a lot better this season, and I expect them to beat the Patriots once this season.   It's a real benefit to get them at home early in the season.  The pats always improve a lot when as the season progresses; every year they look beatable and actually lose a few in the first six weeks.   

 

Still, I don't see the Bills being much better than 9-7.  Sure, they've gotten better, but the league improves every year, and winning isn't going to be easy. 

this is what I've been trying to say as well. the last 2 seasons they've gotten off to 2-2 starts and that's happened 3 of the last 5 seasons as well.

 

if our bills are improved like we think then that game at home in week 4 should be very winnable.

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15 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 

 

Not so sure about that.  We have almost an entirely new offensive line, new WRs , TEs, i think the Bills could be very very shakey on offense for mutliple weeks to start the season, sure hope I am wrong.  

 

Of course you may be right, but you aren't responding to the point.  The point is that the Patriots are a much better team in the second half of the season than the first.   The Patriots we all think of as unbeatable are the second half of the season Patriots.   In the fourth week of the season, you will have two mediocre NFL teams playing each other, and the Bills will be at home.  That's why I think the Bills have a good shot at winning the game.  

 

Why are the Patriots so much better in the second half of the season?  Two reasons:  First, the Patriots get better every week, by design.  Belichick keeps taeching them more and more, and more variety, so that by the second half of the season they can come at you in a variety of ways.  They can be a running team, a passing team, a burn the clock team, whatever they want.  In the first half of the season they are more limited.   Second, by the second half of the season, most other teams have become set in their ways, and by studying film of the previous three or four weeks Belichick has a very good idea of what the opponent is going to do.   In the first half of the season, teams haven't settled into a particular style yet, and they are tougher to prepare for.   

 

Early in the season is the time to play them  

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2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Of course you may be right, but you aren't responding to the point.  The point is that the Patriots are a much better team in the second half of the season than the first.   The Patriots we all think of as unbeatable are the second half of the season Patriots.   In the fourth week of the season, you will have two mediocre NFL teams playing each other, and the Bills will be at home.  That's why I think the Bills have a good shot at winning the game.  

 

Why are the Patriots so much better in the second half of the season?  Two reasons:  First, the Patriots get better every week, by design.  Belichick keeps taeching them more and more, and more variety, so that by the second half of the season they can come at you in a variety of ways.  They can be a running team, a passing team, a burn the clock team, whatever they want.  In the first half of the season they are more limited.   Second, by the second half of the season, most other teams have become set in their ways, and by studying film of the previous three or four weeks Belichick has a very good idea of what the opponent is going to do.   In the first half of the season, teams haven't settled into a particular style yet, and they are tougher to prepare for.   

 

Early in the season is the time to play them  

 

 

Solid points.

 

I am not so sure I am buying everything you write, that Belichek is some kinds of demi-god that is so vastly superior to the entire NFL, esp with the way players/coaches constantly move around.  There is no "magic" to what Belichek has been doing, it is called hard work.    His two other huge benefits are 1) consistency which ties into 2) Brady. imagine every year for the past 18? the NFLs number one concern, the QB, is an afterthought for the pats.  they have 95% certainty that Brady will finish the season, and to top it of he gives them a home town discount.  Talk about incredible benefit, that is as powerful as any.

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18 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 

 

Solid points.

 

I am not so sure I am buying everything you write, that Belichek is some kinds of demi-god that is so vastly superior to the entire NFL, esp with the way players/coaches constantly move around.  There is no "magic" to what Belichek has been doing, it is called hard work.    His two other huge benefits are 1) consistency which ties into 2) Brady. imagine every year for the past 18? the NFLs number one concern, the QB, is an afterthought for the pats.  they have 95% certainty that Brady will finish the season, and to top it of he gives them a home town discount.  Talk about incredible benefit, that is as powerful as any.

 

Also solid points, especially regarding Brady.  But let’s not forget they got 11 wins with the greatness that is Matt Cassell. There are only so many hours in a day, so sometimes working hard and working smarter makes the difference. They have an underrated group of people surrounding Belichick including the OLine coach. They lose FA OLinemen who go elsewhere for lots of money....and lesser play. 

 

It’s a lot of things, and it is nearing an end. Both Brady and Belichick are not far from their finish lines. Maybe they can retire together in Florida and become Dolphin fans!  

 

 

.

Edited by Augie
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14 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 

 

Solid points.

 

I am not so sure I am buying everything you write, that Belichek is some kinds of demi-god that is so vastly superior to the entire NFL, esp with the way players/coaches constantly move around.  There is no "magic" to what Belichek has been doing, it is called hard work.    His two other huge benefits are 1) consistency which ties into 2) Brady. imagine every year for the past 18? the NFLs number one concern, the QB, is an afterthought for the pats.  they have 95% certainty that Brady will finish the season, and to top it of he gives them a home town discount.  Talk about incredible benefit, that is as powerful as any.

I think Belichick is a genius.   Most of the coaches in the league are incredible hard worker, but they don't win like the Patriots.   One characteristic that shows how much different the Patriots are from everyone else is how their offense morphs from style to style from week to week, depending on how they want to attack the opponent.  No one else does that.  That's technical brilliance coupled with hard work.   When the Patriots beat you with a 250-yard rushing game, and Brady goes 13-24 for 126 yards, that's Belichick, not Brady.   They do it to someone every season - last season it was the Bills.  

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6 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Did you just look at the box score for that Patriots game? 

 

Zay was non existent up until the last drive of the game when the game was well out of reach. 

 

There's no question he's improved from the disaster he was in 2017. He still has big issues in struggles getting separation and catching the football along with consistency. He look good against the Dolphins and the next week against the Jets he was dropping balls all over the field. 

 

At at this point he's an average reciever, probably a borderline #3 option on most teams.

 

6 hours ago, eball said:

 

I'm not about to predict that Zay Jones will suddenly become a star, but he was an incredibly accomplished receiver in college who did not drop balls.  That has to be mental.  Also, 2019 is Zay's first true offseason of participation because last year he was recovering from his Vegas escapade.  By all accounts he has added upper body strength and has been working on his route running.  He knows the offense, and he was able to create some chemistry with Josh last season.

 

If we are ever going to see something out of Zay it will be this year...and I'm cautiously optimistic.

 

The lengths you'll go to excuse players who've not proven themselves is amazing.  Writing off 2 off-seasons for Zay?  If you're doing that, may as well do it for every player who undergoes off-season surgery.  Morse, Beasley, and others have had procedures done that have impacted their prep for 2019.  Can we apply the same perspective to them?    

 

Frankly, I don't care what ZJ did at Coastal Carolina.  As a noted poster refers to him here, "Drop-Zone" Jones has a looooong way to go before securing even a supporting role on this team.  

 

A quick review of his 2018 output reveals ZJ accumulated much of his stats when games were out of hand. His 2 biggest games took place in blowout wins at NYJ and versus MIA.  And worse, when Allen started to show some signs of his potential late in the season, Zay wasn't exactly his guy and that remained the case in the final 6 games of the season.  Over those contests, ZJ was targeted 43 times by Allen and managed 19 receptions for 260 yards.  For a guy late into his 2nd season that's not exactly what you look for in a 2nd round pick they traded up for.   

 

And, this season those short yardage catches ZJ's been making are going to start heading Beasley's way.  The question is, where does ZJ fit in with Brown, Beasley, and Foster on this roster? I'm guessing if he doesn't show some significant improvement in camp he'll be finding himself 4th or 5th on the depth chart, particularly if Foster continues to excel. 

 

 

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3 things can make this a 10 win team.

 

The line is good. 
We can run the football. 

The QB is good.

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28 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think Belichick is a genius.   Most of the coaches in the league are incredible hard worker, but they don't win like the Patriots.   One characteristic that shows how much different the Patriots are from everyone else is how their offense morphs from style to style from week to week, depending on how they want to attack the opponent.  No one else does that.  That's technical brilliance coupled with hard work.   When the Patriots beat you with a 250-yard rushing game, and Brady goes 13-24 for 126 yards, that's Belichick, not Brady.   They do it to someone every season - last season it was the Bills.  

 

 

 

nicely done assessment 'Shaw..uncanny how he shows up EVERY year in the mix despite what we perceive as adversity and their "death knell"....for how long have the masses forecasted "this is THE year for Pats' demise"?.......yet the SOB keeps tickin' like that 'ol "John Cameron Swayze Timex In Your Top Drawer"?.....

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7 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

 

nicely done assessment 'Shaw..uncanny how he shows up EVERY year in the mix despite what we perceive as adversity and their "death knell"....for how long have the masses forecasted "this is THE year for Pats' demise"?.......yet the SOB keeps tickin' like that 'ol "John Cameron Swayze Timex In Your Top Drawer"?.....

Yeah, for three or four seasons I predicted the end was near for them.   Then about three years ago, I stopped.   It became obvious that the usual rules don't apply to them. 

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3 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Its a long shot but you never know.  I garuantee  some of the easy teams will be better than expected and some of the tough teams will play poorly.  It happens every season.

 

14 wins is incredible. The Pat's rarely get 14 wins with a lot of gifted wins in the division.

 

Anyone who thinks this team is going 14-2 is nuts. I'd love to be wrong but I'm unfortunately not going to be.

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13 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Yeah, for three or four seasons I predicted the end was near for them.   Then about three years ago, I stopped.   It became obvious that the usual rules don't apply to them. 

The Pats are chameleon like. They quietly go about their business and efficiently dismantle other teams...someone said earlier that they can beat you in so many ways. Very disciplined unit that tackles well and is almost always in position. I had them written off 2-3 years ago...not happening yet.

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2 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

The lengths you'll go to excuse players who've not proven themselves is amazing


The lengths to which I’ll go? Good god, man, get a hold of yourself. Your disdain for anyone who doesn’t share your brand of pessimistic “realism” is really pathetic. 

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9 hours ago, eball said:

 

I'm not about to predict that Zay Jones will suddenly become a star, but he was an incredibly accomplished receiver in college who did not drop balls.  That has to be mental.  Also, 2019 is Zay's first true offseason of participation because last year he was recovering from his Vegas escapade.  By all accounts he has added upper body strength and has been working on his route running.  He knows the offense, and he was able to create some chemistry with Josh last season.

 

If we are ever going to see something out of Zay it will be this year...and I'm cautiously optimistic.

 

Adding upper body strength certainly will help if he dives out another window.

 

I am not sure why when players get hurt in offseason on their own time in activities unrelated to sports (i.e. getting a pizza, blowing off fire crackers, doing roll over for vehicles) that the team does not have the option to red shirt them requiring that be there for therapy, etc but having the time when they are not effective added to their contracts. I am sure the NFLPA would not agree but why should teams be paying for their mistakes.

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think Belichick is a genius.   Most of the coaches in the league are incredible hard worker, but they don't win like the Patriots.   One characteristic that shows how much different the Patriots are from everyone else is how their offense morphs from style to style from week to week, depending on how they want to attack the opponent.  No one else does that.  That's technical brilliance coupled with hard work.   When the Patriots beat you with a 250-yard rushing game, and Brady goes 13-24 for 126 yards, that's Belichick, not Brady.   They do it to someone every season - last season it was the Bills.  

 

It is not just genius, it is inside information.  Was Billicheat a winning coach before he hired his director of information (spying)?

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On 7/9/2019 at 11:09 AM, eball said:

With the days winding down until training camp starts I'm becoming more and more convinced that only a rash of key injuries will prevent McD's third team from compiling at least 10 wins and a playoff spot.  The schedule is favorable, particularly early, which means an already established defense (boosted by Ed Oliver) should be able to not only hold their own but control games.  This is the third year for many of these guys in the defense.  The secondary is second to none (can this even be disputed?).  Edmunds got a "free" year of NFL schooling, added bulk, and should now be playing rather than thinking.  Milano was a budding star before his leg snapped.  If the offense merely improves from awful to average that should be good enough.  Special teams can't be worse -- the Bills added one of the premiere return men in the game and washed the stale taste of Danny Crossman from our mouths.  Heath Farwell is energetic and ambitious, he has the respect of players because he was one of them, and I think he'll have guys trying to run through walls for his ST.

 

And let's talk about the offense.  Last year it was bad.  Through nine games, historically bad.  But then something happened.  Josh Allen returned from injury and made plays.  Enough plays to show us what he's capable of (as well as what he needs to work on).  More importantly, he got eleven weeks of coaching and preparing for NFL competition as "the man."  Through the final seven weeks of the season the Bills bore resemblance to an NFL offense -- despite receiving some of the shoddiest OL play I've ever witnessed.

 

Fast forward to the offseason.  Two veteran receivers added, including an expected "safety valve" for Allen.  A top line center.  Loads of veteran competition along the OL along with a promising rookie draft pick.  A new OL coach who has been spoken of highly around the league.  Gore and Singletary.  Who here is going to predict that the offense will do anything but improve?

 

Everything I've seen/heard from Josh Allen suggests he is smart, competitive, and tough as nails.  His teammates already love him.  So yeah, if he can improve his numbers to something north of 55% completions, 3500 yards, and a 2.5-1 TD/INT ratio I think the Bills will be just fine.

 

Is this an indefensible "homer" post?  I really don't think so.  Tell me why expectations should be lowered.  And be civil.

10  is my minimum target for this year, barring really bad luck on injuries.  They are set up well.  The schedule is favorable.  The team has improved on defense but has vastly improved on offense as a result of year 2 of Allen’s development and a potentially much improved OL and WR group. The coaching staff is also improved and  there should be no allowances for the new HC learning curve either. The culture is established and player leadership is in place.  Time to step up.  This is the “surprise” team of the AFC this year.  

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3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think Belichick is a genius.   Most of the coaches in the league are incredible hard worker, but they don't win like the Patriots.   One characteristic that shows how much different the Patriots are from everyone else is how their offense morphs from style to style from week to week, depending on how they want to attack the opponent.  No one else does that.  That's technical brilliance coupled with hard work.   When the Patriots beat you with a 250-yard rushing game, and Brady goes 13-24 for 126 yards, that's Belichick, not Brady.   They do it to someone every season - last season it was the Bills.  

I think you meant every season it's the Bills*.

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4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think Belichick is a genius.   Most of the coaches in the league are incredible hard worker, but they don't win like the Patriots.   One characteristic that shows how much different the Patriots are from everyone else is how their offense morphs from style to style from week to week, depending on how they want to attack the opponent.  No one else does that.  That's technical brilliance coupled with hard work.   When the Patriots beat you with a 250-yard rushing game, and Brady goes 13-24 for 126 yards, that's Belichick, not Brady.   They do it to someone every season - last season it was the Bills.  

 

I agree.  He is also brilliant at teaching the fundamentals and drilling situational football into his team's heads.  How many times have we seen a Bills offensive player get stood up by one defender and the next defender comes in and rakes the ball away (last year it was Croom).  They constantly get points at the end of the first half and then get the ball again in the second half and score.  They always seem to be in the right place at the right time -- you may attribute it to luck, but you don't get lucky 17 years in a row.  

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1 minute ago, 17years&waiting said:

 

I agree.  He is also brilliant at teaching the fundamentals and drilling situational football into his team's heads.  How many times have we seen a Bills offensive player get stood up by one defender and the next defender comes in and rakes the ball away (last year it was Croom).  They constantly get points at the end of the first half and then get the ball again in the second half and score.  They always seem to be in the right place at the right time -- you may attribute it to luck, but you don't get lucky 17 years in a row.  

Exactly. They all block, they all tackle.  They're rarely out of position.  It's the way football is supposed  to be played.  Fundamentals executed with consistent excellence.

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