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Having a hard time talking myself out of 10 wins for this team...

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As a former sufferer of 10 win delusions I can share the cure - buy season tickets 

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11 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Yep.

 

They have a good test early against Bell and Barkley. I'm interested to see how the run defense responds. 

Totally agree. The most effective defenses stop the run (and of course get after the QB, but you can't necessarily get after the QB when the offense is getting after YOU).

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6 hours ago, Ol Dirty B said:

 

14 wins is incredible. The Pat's rarely get 14 wins with a lot of gifted wins in the division.

 

Anyone who thinks this team is going 14-2 is nuts. I'd love to be wrong but I'm unfortunately not going to be.

So you agree that it is possible.

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On 7/9/2019 at 12:45 PM, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

The only thing that worries me about this is most of the plays were with his legs.  If he can start making them with his arm, I'd agree.  And I do think there will be improvement too, the question is how much.  If he can bump his completion percentage up just 5%, that could be enough.  With the weapons added, I don't think that's out of reach either.

Did Steve Young making plays with his legs cause the 49ers a huge a mount of concern?

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14 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think Belichick is a genius.   Most of the coaches in the league are incredible hard worker, but they don't win like the Patriots.   One characteristic that shows how much different the Patriots are from everyone else is how their offense morphs from style to style from week to week, depending on how they want to attack the opponent.  No one else does that.  That's technical brilliance coupled with hard work.   When the Patriots beat you with a 250-yard rushing game, and Brady goes 13-24 for 126 yards, that's Belichick, not Brady.   They do it to someone every season - last season it was the Bills.  


Sports psychologists often apply the concept of "comfort zone" to athletes.  I think this concept also applies to coaches.  Clearly Belichick's is comfort zone is boundless.

When people talk about a team "elevating its play" during an NFL playoff game, I think it is more often that the other team was out of their comfort zone and played poorly.  

My main concern with the Bills coaching staff and the vast majority of its players has more to do with comfort zone, than it does to talent, work ethic, knowledge or skills.    The Bills coaches and players really aren't battle tested, and until we see how they respond to moving to the next level, its hard to know if they will succeed or not. 

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I've been thinking 10-6 for months.

 

AFC East  (4-2)

 

Sweep the Fish.

Split with the Jets.

Split with the Pats* (Bills take the home game).

 

AFC North (2-2)

 

Take the Bengals.

Take one of the next three (and for the life of me, I don't know which one.  I'm not going to get into that argument.  But the Ravens, Steelers and Browns are beatable)

 

NFC East (2-2)

 

Take the Giants and Skins.

Lose to the Cowboys and Eagles.  Sucks to lose in Dallas on Thanksgiving Day, but build your afternoon around it.

 

3rd Place teams (2-0)

 

Bills can handle both the Broncos and Titans

 

That's 10-6.  And doable.  Not "doable by a stretch".  Doable.

 

That first game against the Jets is HUGE.  I know national TV audience is going to look at that game with an earth-shattering yawn, and they'll probably bring some college intern aboard to handle color commentary, but for the Bills, it's HUGE.  1-0 to start the season in the AFC is money in the bank.

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10 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Exactly. They all block, they all tackle.  They're rarely out of position.  It's the way football is supposed  to be played.  Fundamentals executed with consistent excellence.

I think people overlook the value of the Patriots having had the same head coach and quarterback duo for as long as they’ve had. Together they bring consistency to both sides of the line of scrimmage. Brady’s like having your OC on the field. He can make adjustments right before the snap, while the other team of young twenty something kids are still catching their breath. And Bill has seen every offensive scheme in the book after three decades, while knowing he needs to spend very little time on his own offense. They don’t win them all but that consistency gets them at least nine wins to start every season.

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43 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I think people overlook the value of the Patriots having had the same head coach and quarterback duo for as long as they’ve had. Together they bring consistency to both sides of the line of scrimmage. Brady’s like having your OC on the field. He can make adjustments right before the snap, while the other team of young twenty something kids are still catching their breath. And Bill has seen every offensive scheme in the book after three decades, while knowing he needs to spend very little time on his own offense. They don’t win them all but that consistency gets them at least nine wins to start every season.

This is absolutely true.   It's like a perfect storm.  

 

I have always believed, and continue to believe, that Brady wouldn't have nearly as good any place else, and Belichick would have been good but not THIS good without Brady.  As you say, Brady's an OC on the field.  He has Belchick's work ethic, but more importantly he has a brain that somehow is in sync with Belichick's.   Belichick's genius is that he gets everyone else on the team, coaches and players, into the same mindset - do your job, do it right, do it every time.  Then he got a QB who learned to do that at the QB position and lead all the other offensive players to do it.   It's really quite amazing.   

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16 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think Belichick is a genius.   Most of the coaches in the league are incredible hard worker, but they don't win like the Patriots.   One characteristic that shows how much different the Patriots are from everyone else is how their offense morphs from style to style from week to week, depending on how they want to attack the opponent.  No one else does that.  That's technical brilliance coupled with hard work.   When the Patriots beat you with a 250-yard rushing game, and Brady goes 13-24 for 126 yards, that's Belichick, not Brady.   They do it to someone every season - last season it was the Bills.  

 

 

Maybe it is brilliance, then again as I wrote earlier it is consistency and having Brady.  Hell look at the Bills, they will be spending the next few years getting Josh Allen how to read defenses, how in the world could the Bills even contemplate doing what the Pats do, it is impossible.  Brady has seen every imaginable defense thrown against him multiple times, he makes head coach style decisions at the line of scrimmage.  That is one reason why even at his advanced age he is still an incredibly effective QB.  Take Brady out of the equation and lets see what happens with the Pats.  

 

Belichek a genius, maybe, but i think it has a lot more to do with consistency which ties into the number one most important position in football, QB and Brady, sadly is the GOAT.

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11 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Exactly. They all block, they all tackle.  They're rarely out of position.  It's the way football is supposed  to be played.  Fundamentals executed with consistent excellence.

One last note on Belichek that we are all forgetting.  I recall very vividly Belichek on a boat talking with the blowhard Jimmie Johnson, Bleichek said one very important thing, "you cant fix stupid" (or something close to that), in other words get smart players.  The PAts put a premium on smart and hard working players.  Kyle Van Noy said after the super bowl that everyone on the defense know how to play multiple positions and know the system inside and out.  Look at the Bills, you realize last year we started 11 different rookies last year?  How are you going to implement anything close to what the Pats do when you start 11 different rookies.  Not even in the same universe.

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15 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

 

The lengths you'll go to excuse players who've not proven themselves is amazing.  Writing off 2 off-seasons for Zay?  If you're doing that, may as well do it for every player who undergoes off-season surgery.  Morse, Beasley, and others have had procedures done that have impacted their prep for 2019.  Can we apply the same perspective to them?    

 

Frankly, I don't care what ZJ did at Coastal Carolina.  As a noted poster refers to him here, "Drop-Zone" Jones has a looooong way to go before securing even a supporting role on this team.  

 

A quick review of his 2018 output reveals ZJ accumulated much of his stats when games were out of hand. His 2 biggest games took place in blowout wins at NYJ and versus MIA.  And worse, when Allen started to show some signs of his potential late in the season, Zay wasn't exactly his guy and that remained the case in the final 6 games of the season.  Over those contests, ZJ was targeted 43 times by Allen and managed 19 receptions for 260 yards.  For a guy late into his 2nd season that's not exactly what you look for in a 2nd round pick they traded up for.   

 

And, this season those short yardage catches ZJ's been making are going to start heading Beasley's way.  The question is, where does ZJ fit in with Brown, Beasley, and Foster on this roster? I'm guessing if he doesn't show some significant improvement in camp he'll be finding himself 4th or 5th on the depth chart, particularly if Foster continues to excel. 

 

 

I'm looking at Zay right now as a valuable depth piece.  He can line up anywhere on the field , and I consider him good in many areas but not elite at one particular thing. He really just needs that consistentcy and hopefully he makes another jump this year. Remember last year he had that wild incident with his brother , this off season he looks to be way more focused on his work and bonding with the team. Alot of WR take time to adjust to the NFL . I'm cautiously optimistic Zay ups his game to another level

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1 hour ago, PlayoffsPlease said:


Sports psychologists often apply the concept of "comfort zone" to athletes.  I think this concept also applies to coaches.  Clearly Belichick's is comfort zone is boundless.

When people talk about a team "elevating its play" during an NFL playoff game, I think it is more often that the other team was out of their comfort zone and played poorly.  

My main concern with the Bills coaching staff and the vast majority of its players has more to do with comfort zone, than it does to talent, work ethic, knowledge or skills.    The Bills coaches and players really aren't battle tested, and until we see how they respond to moving to the next level, its hard to know if they will succeed or not. 

I think this is correct.  I think athletes' comfort zone comes from being prepared.   And it isn't just athletics.   I've done some public speaking over the years, and it's clear that study and practice and technique all are important, but the real key is that when you put it all together, when you've developed some skills AND you're really prepared, you get up there and you're thinking "I've got this."  

 

You can see the Patriots improving through the season, and you can see the players able to make plays in tight games, late in the season.  They aren't big plays - they're ordinary plays.  Just deflect the pass, just make the catch.  And then every once in a while you'll see Edelman make a miracle catch, and all it is is determination and focus.   Then they get to the playoffs and it all steps up.   No one looks out of place, no one is flustered.  

 

I think McDermott is completely focused on this concept.   I think that's what he's teaching.  He's trying to load his team with fast, good athletes who will work all day, every day just to make the play they're supposed to make.  Not the great play, not the extraordinary play, just the play they're supposed to make.  If they make the tackle, great, but if they're making the play they're supposed to make sometimes it just means that some teammate makes the play HE's supposed to make and makes the tackle.   He teaching a total team concept.  He's teaching people that if you make the play on punt coverage that allows your teammate to make the tackle, your defensive teammates can keep the other guys off the scoreboard.   

 

I've seen this concept working in McD's defense from his first season.  You see it most easily in the safeties.  Hyde and Poyer have been in a comfort zone almost since they arrived.   They know where they're supposed to be and they go there.  They just do it.  The result is that someone makes a play, maybe them, maybe someone else.   I think that's the difference we see in Hughes's play, too.  When McD arrived, the game stopped being about Jerry and started being about the defense.   And I see the same thing when I watch Belichick's defense.   Other than the shut down corner, it's hard to see anyone out there who looks great - they all just look like when the play comes to them, they make it.  They all know they can make the ordinary play, they're in a comfort zone about it.   And when 11 guys are making the ordinary play, every time - going where they're supposed to go, taking on the block, filling a zone, whatever - when they all do it every time, the collective effort is great.   

 

And, to you're point, to you have that, you have to learn to move your comfort zone from the practice field to the games, from the games to the post-season and into the Super Bowl.   You can be ready, and the moment's not too big for you.   But, to use an oft-repeated word around here, it's a process.   You have to experience the comfort zone on the practice field first, and then you have to learn to get into that zone in games.   You make some mistakes along the way, because you lose focus when the bright lights are on, but once you regain the focus, the comfort zone returns.  Then you get to the playoffs and you have to learn to stay in the comfort zone.  The beauty of what Belichick and Brady have done is that they've built a nucleus that has learned this and internalized it, so that, as you say, the comfort zone is limitless.   A new player comes to the team, and they pull him into this process that is churning away.  IF the player doesn't conform to that mentality, he gets spit out and another guy is plugged in.  Some guys are naturals, like Hogan.   There simply was no question in my mind that Hogan would succeed in New England.   He's the prototype for Belichick - really good athlete, determination, work ethic, doesn't care who gets the credit.  

 

It's pretty obvious that that's what McD is trying to do.   When McBeane talk about the kind of guys they're looking for, it's the Hogans, the Milanos.  That's why, although people pooh-pooh it, some of us get excited about a guy like David Sills.  Will Sills make it?  I have no idea.  But I do know that he is the prototype, just like Hogan.   He's going to do his job, every day, he's going to do it with focus and determination.  When he gets his chance to play, he's going to be ready and he's going to be in his comfort zone, because that's how he's always done things.  He's going to run the route, make the block, fill the zone, whatever, and when the play comes his way, he'll make it, because he's ready to make it.  

 

And that's why I'm so optimistic about the Bills.   It's why I wrote a month ago that we're looking at the beginning of the next great NFL team that will have sustained success.  Why?  Because McDermott has spent his life studying how this works, and he keeps studying.  He won't quit - he has the focus and determination of a wrestler.   He has the ability to get the attention of players and have them follow him.   You could see it in how a great team player like Kyle Williams took to him immediately.  And, McD has a QB who fits perfectly.   Allen wants to be better and better.  He studies, he works he practices.   He's smart.   You can see him growing into HIS comfort zone.   He has the same kind of intangibles Brady has, down to the chip on his shoulder, having been dissed by so many people from high school through college and the draft.   And, by the way, he's much better physically than Brady.   Better arm, better mobility, better ability to move in the pocket.   I think we're looking at, potentially, the next Chuck Noll and Terry Bradshaw, potentially the next Jimmy Johnson and Troy Aikman, yes, potentially even the next Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. 

 

Will McD succeed?   Just like Sills, I don't know.  It's one thing to see what works, it's another thing to execute it, day after day, to keep your team together and willing to win as a team without having to take credit for it personally.   McBeane preach it to each other and to everyone else, but preaching it and getting the whole team into that comfort zone are two different things.  Will Beane be satisfied to stay and build, or will he get lured away to a bigger challenge?   Can McDermott build a staff that manages the Xs and Os at a high level?  Will the team survive the loss of the occasional talented player who isn't willing to take a few million less to remain part of a winning machine?   Time will tell.  

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45 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

One last note on Belichek that we are all forgetting.  I recall very vividly Belichek on a boat talking with the blowhard Jimmie Johnson, Bleichek said one very important thing, "you cant fix stupid" (or something close to that), in other words get smart players.  The PAts put a premium on smart and hard working players.  Kyle Van Noy said after the super bowl that everyone on the defense know how to play multiple positions and know the system inside and out.  Look at the Bills, you realize last year we started 11 different rookies last year?  How are you going to implement anything close to what the Pats do when you start 11 different rookies.  Not even in the same universe.

But all you're saying, both in this post and talking about Brady, is that McBeane are correct in their approach.   They have implemented a process intended to build long-term success, and that process will take multiple years.   Of course, the Bills won't do in 2019 what the Patriots can do in 2019.   But even the 2002 Patriots couldn't do what the 2019 Patriots can do, either.  It took time to build the machine the Patriots have, a machine that now has an endless stream of interchangeable parts, a machine that works so long as Belichick and Brady are there. 

 

Tom Brady wasn't always the GOAT.   He BECAME the GOAT, by living and working in Belichick's process.   

 

So to say the 2019 Bills won't be the 2018 Patriots is a no-brainer.  Of course not.  No one knows that better than McDermott.   What McBeane are trying to do is make the 2024 Bills the 2018 Patriots.  It's a process, it takes time.  The Bills need to have a few more established players who are the core.  And Allen needs to become an accomplished NFL field general, which takes years.   It took Brady years, it took Manning years.  

Edited by Shaw66
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13 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

Adding upper body strength certainly will help if he dives out another window.

 

I am not sure why when players get hurt in offseason on their own time in activities unrelated to sports (i.e. getting a pizza, blowing off fire crackers, doing roll over for vehicles) that the team does not have the option to red shirt them requiring that be there for therapy, etc but having the time when they are not effective added to their contracts. I am sure the NFLPA would not agree but why should teams be paying for their mistakes.

 

It is not just genius, it is inside information.  Was Billicheat a winning coach before he hired his director of information (spying)?

Ernie Adams has been with Belichick going back to the Giants. I believe they started working together in 79.  Thier freinship goes furthet back to when they were in prep school.

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45 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

I'm looking at Zay right now as a valuable depth piece.  He can line up anywhere on the field , and I consider him good in many areas but not elite at one particular thing. He really just needs that consistentcy and hopefully he makes another jump this year. Remember last year he had that wild incident with his brother , this off season he looks to be way more focused on his work and bonding with the team. Alot of WR take time to adjust to the NFL . I'm cautiously optimistic Zay ups his game to another level

I agree about this, but it really describes both the upside and downside of Zay Jones - he can be good in many areas but not elite in anything.   That's fine, and McBeane want a lot of guys just like that on the team.   BUT it also means that Zay is expendable, because plenty of guys can be good in many areas but not elite.   They're a dime a dozen.  So, for example (and this is something I said in Alphadawg's thread about Zay not being on the team when the season opens), someone like Robert Foster could emerge was a guy who does lots of things well, like reading defenses, settling in zones, run nice out patterns, etc.  He's had a year's experience, maybe he's done good off-season work.   If Foster becomes a guy who is good at many areas, he's way more valuable than Zay because he's also elite at SOMETHING, in this case, speed.  Beasley is good at many things, but he's also been elite as a possession receiver.  If Brown can bring more to the table than Zay, again because of his speed, suddenly Zay is only your number four receiver.   Now he has to compete with Duke Williams, who has more talent, and with Sills, who may have more future, and with McKenzie, and with Roberts, who can return kicks.   

 

If Zay can't win a starting spot, he could be in trouble.  And if he can't win a starting spot, that's a good thing, because it means the talent has been upgraded.  

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The 4 game stretch late in the year of @ Dal, Ravens, @ Steelers, @ NE* has me very worried.  That could be a 4 game losing streak.  I can see 9-7 pretty well, but 10 wins is gonna be tricky.

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On 7/10/2019 at 6:12 AM, eball said:

 

The Vegas odds have very little to do with "predictions" -- we all know that the public bias outside of WNY is that the Bills are horrible.

 

It's not necessarily a prediction, but they are very good at setting lines so they balance their exposure on losses well. Which is why usually season lines they are within a game either way. So I get your point, it's not a prediction but it is in a way.

 

They get some wrong of course, but if they might get one team a year wrong by 3 or more in extraordinary circumstances. 

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10 wins seems to be reasonable goal.  I just hope to see continuity  This is year 3 I hope we can get to year 5 and beyond and stop the endless coaching, qb and scheme changes

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On 7/10/2019 at 10:59 PM, RoyBatty is alive said:

 

 

Solid points.

 

I am not so sure I am buying everything you write, that Belichek is some kinds of demi-god that is so vastly superior to the entire NFL, esp with the way players/coaches constantly move around.  There is no "magic" to what Belichek has been doing, it is called hard work.    His two other huge benefits are 1) consistency which ties into 2) Brady. imagine every year for the past 18? the NFLs number one concern, the QB, is an afterthought for the pats.  they have 95% certainty that Brady will finish the season, and to top it of he gives them a home town discount.  Talk about incredible benefit, that is as powerful as any.

 

All true but Belichick is still the best to ever wear a headset. He isn't a schematic revolutionary like a Bill Walsh but nobody can break down tape and game plan like him. When Belichick watches tape he sees a handful of things on ever single play that the others don't. 

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