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Having a hard time talking myself out of 10 wins for this team...

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2 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I understand your point about sustained success, but Belichick and Brady won a Superbowl their first season together. I think many of us would be much more confident that sustained success was on the horizon if the Bills were to, God forbid, win a SUPERBOWL.

 

It didn't take them long to start winning. 

It wasn't their first season together.  Their first season together they were 5-11 and Brady didn't play.  

 

Beyond that, I think Belichick is a genius, and I'm not saying g McD can replicate Belly's success.  What I'm saying is that he is replicating the team building approach, which is why I expect success to come a little more slowly.  

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On 7/11/2019 at 10:07 AM, Shaw66 said:

I think this is correct.  I think athletes' comfort zone comes from being prepared.   And it isn't just athletics.   I've done some public speaking over the years, and it's clear that study and practice and technique all are important, but the real key is that when you put it all together, when you've developed some skills AND you're really prepared, you get up there and you're thinking "I've got this."  

 

You can see the Patriots improving through the season, and you can see the players able to make plays in tight games, late in the season.  They aren't big plays - they're ordinary plays.  Just deflect the pass, just make the catch.  And then every once in a while you'll see Edelman make a miracle catch, and all it is is determination and focus.   Then they get to the playoffs and it all steps up.   No one looks out of place, no one is flustered.  

 

I think McDermott is completely focused on this concept.   I think that's what he's teaching.  He's trying to load his team with fast, good athletes who will work all day, every day just to make the play they're supposed to make.  Not the great play, not the extraordinary play, just the play they're supposed to make.  If they make the tackle, great, but if they're making the play they're supposed to make sometimes it just means that some teammate makes the play HE's supposed to make and makes the tackle.   He teaching a total team concept.  He's teaching people that if you make the play on punt coverage that allows your teammate to make the tackle, your defensive teammates can keep the other guys off the scoreboard.   

 

I've seen this concept working in McD's defense from his first season.  You see it most easily in the safeties.  Hyde and Poyer have been in a comfort zone almost since they arrived.   They know where they're supposed to be and they go there.  They just do it.  The result is that someone makes a play, maybe them, maybe someone else.   I think that's the difference we see in Hughes's play, too.  When McD arrived, the game stopped being about Jerry and started being about the defense.   And I see the same thing when I watch Belichick's defense.   Other than the shut down corner, it's hard to see anyone out there who looks great - they all just look like when the play comes to them, they make it.  They all know they can make the ordinary play, they're in a comfort zone about it.   And when 11 guys are making the ordinary play, every time - going where they're supposed to go, taking on the block, filling a zone, whatever - when they all do it every time, the collective effort is great.   

 

And, to you're point, to you have that, you have to learn to move your comfort zone from the practice field to the games, from the games to the post-season and into the Super Bowl.   You can be ready, and the moment's not too big for you.   But, to use an oft-repeated word around here, it's a process.   You have to experience the comfort zone on the practice field first, and then you have to learn to get into that zone in games.   You make some mistakes along the way, because you lose focus when the bright lights are on, but once you regain the focus, the comfort zone returns.  Then you get to the playoffs and you have to learn to stay in the comfort zone.  The beauty of what Belichick and Brady have done is that they've built a nucleus that has learned this and internalized it, so that, as you say, the comfort zone is limitless.   A new player comes to the team, and they pull him into this process that is churning away.  IF the player doesn't conform to that mentality, he gets spit out and another guy is plugged in.  Some guys are naturals, like Hogan.   There simply was no question in my mind that Hogan would succeed in New England.   He's the prototype for Belichick - really good athlete, determination, work ethic, doesn't care who gets the credit.  

 

It's pretty obvious that that's what McD is trying to do.   When McBeane talk about the kind of guys they're looking for, it's the Hogans, the Milanos.  That's why, although people pooh-pooh it, some of us get excited about a guy like David Sills.  Will Sills make it?  I have no idea.  But I do know that he is the prototype, just like Hogan.   He's going to do his job, every day, he's going to do it with focus and determination.  When he gets his chance to play, he's going to be ready and he's going to be in his comfort zone, because that's how he's always done things.  He's going to run the route, make the block, fill the zone, whatever, and when the play comes his way, he'll make it, because he's ready to make it.  

 

And, McD has a QB who fits perfectly.   Allen wants to be better and better.  He studies, he works he practices.   He's smart.   You can see him growing into HIS comfort zone.   He has the same kind of intangibles Brady has, down to the chip on his shoulder, having been dissed by so many people from high school through college and the draft.   And, by the way, he's much better physically than Brady.   Better arm, better mobility, better ability to move in the pocket.   I think we're looking at, potentially, the next Chuck Noll and Terry Bradshaw, potentially the next Jimmy Johnson and Troy Aikman, yes, potentially even the next Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. 

 

I know you really want to BILLieve badly that the Bills are finally going to turn it around and have success, I just don't see it. Copying the Pats may seem like a great idea but they are an outlier on how teams are built. You need elite talent to win in this league, plug and play guys will only get you so far. Antonio Brown was the type of WR the Bills have needed for a long time. I know Brown nixed the deal but the fact so many Bills fans didn't want him shows me they only want elite talent as long as they aren't me first players. 

 

As far as QB's go, just cause a guy studies film, practices hard, and is mobile doesn't make him a franchise guy. You also need to me accurate and have good completion percentage, which Allen has never had yet in his career. QB's don't suddenly become accurate over night. 

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24 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

I know you really want to BILLieve badly that the Bills are finally going to turn it around and have success, I just don't see it. Copying the Pats may seem like a great idea but they are an outlier on how teams are built. You need elite talent to win in this league, plug and play guys will only get you so far. Antonio Brown was the type of WR the Bills have needed for a long time. I know Brown nixed the deal but the fact so many Bills fans didn't want him shows me they only want elite talent as long as they aren't me first players. 

 

As far as QB's go, just cause a guy studies film, practices hard, and is mobile doesn't make him a franchise guy. You also need to me accurate and have good completion percentage, which Allen has never had yet in his career. QB's don't suddenly become accurate over night. 

 

Fair enough. I get you want to see the baby, and that’s OK. Will Josh become the real deal? I have no idea, but I think he has about a 50/50 chance. If he’s the guy, we will be fine. 

 

As for copying the Pats....I don’t see that. I think we draft better and will get younger cheaper talent. We just don’t have the best QB who ever lived. That hurts a bit. 

 

I’m fine with missing out on a head case and cap sucker like AB. I’d have loved his talent, but I’m not sure I’d want the rest of his package. I trust the FO on this call. Me first is not the right kind of guy. You can feel free to go all out betting on the Raiders over the next 4-5 years. I’ll take the Bills over that same period.  

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48 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

I know you really want to BILLieve badly that the Bills are finally going to turn it around and have success, I just don't see it. Copying the Pats may seem like a great idea but they are an outlier on how teams are built. You need elite talent to win in this league, plug and play guys will only get you so far. Antonio Brown was the type of WR the Bills have needed for a long time. I know Brown nixed the deal but the fact so many Bills fans didn't want him shows me they only want elite talent as long as they aren't me first players. 

 

As far as QB's go, just cause a guy studies film, practices hard, and is mobile doesn't make him a franchise guy. You also need to me accurate and have good completion percentage, which Allen has never had yet in his career. QB's don't suddenly become accurate over night. 

I don't agree about talent.  Nobody out-talents the other teams for very long.

 

I discussed accuracy above.  I dont think accuracy is a serious problem with Allen.  This year will answer the question, because he will throw a lot of short balls.  We will see.

 

It's true I'm a Billiever, but I understand the process can fail for any number of reasons.  I don't see a lot of point in arguing that the Bills should be doing something else.  It's  obvious what the approach is McBeane are following, and it's a slow-build approach.  Beyond that, however, I actually do believe it's a good approach.  At least there's a plan. Whaley and Marrone and Rex all seemed to be winging it.  

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1 hour ago, Augie said:

 

Fair enough. I get you want to see the baby, and that’s OK. Will Josh become the real deal? I have no idea, but I think he has about a 50/50 chance. If he’s the guy, we will be fine. 

 

As for copying the Pats....I don’t see that. I think we draft better and will get younger cheaper talent. We just don’t have the best QB who ever lived. That hurts a bit. 

 

I’m fine with missing out on a head case and cap sucker like AB. I’d have loved his talent, but I’m not sure I’d want the rest of his package. I trust the FO on this call. Me first is not the right kind of guy. You can feel free to go all out betting on the Raiders over the next 4-5 years. I’ll take the Bills over that same period.  

For a team like the Bills who lack talent at WR, a guy like Antonio Brown is something the Bills can use. Talent wins in this league, a bunch of plug and play WRs doesn't usually work. I will take a guy like OBJ or AB over Beasley or Foster every day of the week. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I don't agree about talent.  Nobody out-talents the other teams for very long.

 

I discussed accuracy above.  I dont think accuracy is a serious problem with Allen.  This year will answer the question, because he will throw a lot of short balls.  We will see.

 

It's true I'm a Billiever, but I understand the process can fail for any number of reasons.  I don't see a lot of point in arguing that the Bills should be doing something else.  It's  obvious what the approach is McBeane are following, and it's a slow-build approach.  Beyond that, however, I actually do believe it's a good approach.  At least there's a plan. Whaley and Marrone and Rex all seemed to be winging it.  

I disagree about talent. You can only scheme so much and win. It takes talent to win in this league. Very rare has a team won without top end talent at QB, WR and RB. If you have those players, your odds of winning many games a season is increased. Its easier to keep 3 players together as opposed to a highly ranked defense year after year. 

 

Look at last season, the Chiefs and Colts both made the playoffs and they both have top end talent at QB, WR and RB. Then you look at the Bills, a bunch of scrubs at WR and bad QB play. 

 

As far as a plan goes, a slow build approach is not needed in todays NFL. Look at the Browns, I know they have been bad for years, but their new GM made moves to win now. By adding OBJ with the talent they already have, they are looking like a contender for the AFC North title. 

Edited by Jrb1979
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9 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I am not worried about Allen's accuracy.  I think the concerns are part myth (from his college career and all the draft commentary), part based on on the fact that he didn't throw short much last season, and part based on his being rushed on short throws because he was sometimes late deciding to take the short pass.  

 

What I think we will see is that Allen has been told since the end of last season that the offense plays better if he takes the short pass.   So I think he won't be late coming to the short guy and will therefore be more focused on throwing an accurate ball.  I dont believe his actual mechanics are a problem; I think if there's been a problem it's  being late and being rushed.

 

I think as the result of this change, his completion percentage will go up to the low or mid-60s. People will say he got more accurate, but it actually will be because he will make quite Kerry and better decisions. 

Yes, they had won it all the year before, but my point was that the system hadn't been institutionalized yet.  They weren't yet able to have sustained year after year success.  It took a few more years for that.  And it took a few more years for Brady to become the GOAT.  That's when it all came together.  

 

Bill won 3 Superbowls in his first 5 years with the Patriots. That is probably the most immediate success by a new coach in modern NFL history. 

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On 7/11/2019 at 12:53 PM, bills_fan said:

The 4 game stretch late in the year of @ Dal, Ravens, @ Steelers, @ NE* has me very worried.  That could be a 4 game losing streak.  I can see 9-7 pretty well, but 10 wins is gonna be tricky.

 

This is where I’m at. While every team loses games they should win and steal games they had no business being in -including @RoyBatty is alive‘s beloved Patriots*,  the 9 new unknowns who’ll start on offense at NYJ will very likely contribute to losses in the softer 1st half of the season. (and Yes, this place will implode!) By the time any sense of identity and consistency in starting roles emerge, we’ll be in the teeth of the hard road. I don’t THINK we’ll be picking as high as 7th in the Draft, but any win total over 8 will border on miraculous. -And McDermott will still have an overall losing record, which will let the dogs out considering he made the playoffs year 1 with a roster now almost unrecognizable. 

 

Anything CAN happen, but our 60 year history says it won’t be good and the fans won’t like it.

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7 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

but any win total over 8 will border on miraculous

 

This is full-blown BBFS talking.

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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Bill won 3 Superbowls in his first 5 years with the Patriots. That is probably the most immediate success by a new coach in modern NFL history. 

Says the man conveniently forgetting four years in Cleveland. 

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12 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Says the man conveniently forgetting four years in Cleveland. 

 

No not forgetting them at all. Belichick was a better Head Coach 2nd time around - no doubt. But the Patriots had a dynasty almost as soon as he arrived. 

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9 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I don't agree about talent.  Nobody out-talents the other teams for very long.

 

I discussed accuracy above.  I dont think accuracy is a serious problem with Allen.  This year will answer the question, because he will throw a lot of short balls.  We will see.

 

It's true I'm a Billiever, but I understand the process can fail for any number of reasons.  I don't see a lot of point in arguing that the Bills should be doing something else.  It's  obvious what the approach is McBeane are following, and it's a slow-build approach.  Beyond that, however, I actually do believe it's a good approach.  At least there's a plan. Whaley and Marrone and Rex all seemed to be winging it.  

 

I think Marrone had a plan. His Jacksonville teams and his Bills teams have enough in common to lead me to believe he had a plan and a vision as to how his team should play. I don't think he was ever in sync with Whaley here.... that was a bit of an issue. But that 2014 team was really good and unlucky not to make the playoffs even with Kyle Orton at QB. 

 

Rex was winging it for sure and Whaley was a talent accumulator but not a team builder  

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9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Marrone had a plan. His Jacksonville teams and his Bills teams have enough in common to lead me to believe he had a plan and a vision as to how his team should play. I don't think he was ever in sync with Whaley here.... that was a bit of an issue. But that 2014 team was really good and unlucky not to make the playoffs even with Kyle Orton at QB. 

 

Rex was winging it for sure and Whaley was a talent accumulator but not a team builder  

Yeah, I sort of liked Marrone.  But if he had a plan, it wasn't clear what it was.  And I agree, he and Whaley werent working together. I suspect that's one reason Marrone bolted. 

 

McBeane have a plan, they're working together, and I can understand what they're trying to do.  I like all of that.  

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No not forgetting them at all. Belichick was a better Head Coach 2nd time around - no doubt. But the Patriots had a dynasty almost as soon as he arrived. 

He also inheriTed a team that had gone 38-26 over the previous four-years and then lost a lot of games.   

 

There are different ways to succeed. Every story is different.  McBeane are writing their story.  They aren't finished yet. 

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38 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Yeah, I sort of liked Marrone.  But if he had a plan, it wasn't clear what it was.  And I agree, he and Whaley werent working together. I suspect that's one reason Marrone bolted. 

 

McBeane have a plan, they're working together, and I can understand what they're trying to do.  I like all of that.  

He also inheriTed a team that had gone 38-26 over the previous four-years and then lost a lot of games.   

 

There are different ways to succeed. Every story is different.  McBeane are writing their story.  They aren't finished yet. 

 

I am not trying to make any point about Beane and McDermott. I just think Belichick doesn't prove your point. Partly because it was his 2nd go around and partly because his Patriots won almost immediately. 

 

I think Marrone's plan was clear. Spend your resource on a suffocating defense and try and run the ball a lot and have a low risk offense. That is what the Bills did in his tenure and it is what Jacksonville have done as well. 

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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not trying to make any point about Beane and McDermott. I just think Belichick doesn't prove your point. Partly because it was his 2nd go around and partly because his Patriots won almost immediately. 

 

I think Marrone's plan was clear. Spend your resource on a suffocating defense and try and run the ball a lot and have a low risk offense. That is what the Bills did in his tenure and it is what Jacksonville have done as well. 

Got ya. I don't drink Belichick proves anything either.  I just think that McBeane have the same philosophy.  Dedication, hard work, study, do your job, limit mistakes, block and tackle.   

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Posted (edited)
On 7/11/2019 at 9:18 AM, Shaw66 said:

This is absolutely true.   It's like a perfect storm.  

 

I have always believed, and continue to believe, that Brady wouldn't have nearly as good any place else, and Belichick would have been good but not THIS good without Brady.  As you say, Brady's an OC on the field.  He has Belchick's work ethic, but more importantly he has a brain that somehow is in sync with Belichick's.   Belichick's genius is that he gets everyone else on the team, coaches and players, into the same mindset - do your job, do it right, do it every time.  Then he got a QB who learned to do that at the QB position and lead all the other offensive players to do it.   It's really quite amazing.   

 

I think it is very important to note that it is not just Beli & Brady. Belicheat makes the entire team work their ASSES off studying film!

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/31/bill-belichick-uses-this-sun-tzu-quote-to-inspire-the-patriots-to-win.html

 

also

'There's nothing fun about it'

https://sports.yahoo.com/another-former-patriot-sounds-off-culture-theres-nothing-fun-185553282.html

Edited by cd1

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On 7/9/2019 at 8:09 AM, eball said:

With the days winding down until training camp starts I'm becoming more and more convinced that only a rash of key injuries will prevent McD's third team from compiling at least 10 wins and a playoff spot.  The schedule is favorable, particularly early, which means an already established defense (boosted by Ed Oliver) should be able to not only hold their own but control games.  This is the third year for many of these guys in the defense.  The secondary is second to none (can this even be disputed?).  Edmunds got a "free" year of NFL schooling, added bulk, and should now be playing rather than thinking.  Milano was a budding star before his leg snapped.  If the offense merely improves from awful to average that should be good enough.  Special teams can't be worse -- the Bills added one of the premiere return men in the game and washed the stale taste of Danny Crossman from our mouths.  Heath Farwell is energetic and ambitious, he has the respect of players because he was one of them, and I think he'll have guys trying to run through walls for his ST.

 

And let's talk about the offense.  Last year it was bad.  Through nine games, historically bad.  But then something happened.  Josh Allen returned from injury and made plays.  Enough plays to show us what he's capable of (as well as what he needs to work on).  More importantly, he got eleven weeks of coaching and preparing for NFL competition as "the man."  Through the final seven weeks of the season the Bills bore resemblance to an NFL offense -- despite receiving some of the shoddiest OL play I've ever witnessed.

 

Fast forward to the offseason.  Two veteran receivers added, including an expected "safety valve" for Allen.  A top line center.  Loads of veteran competition along the OL along with a promising rookie draft pick.  A new OL coach who has been spoken of highly around the league.  Gore and Singletary.  Who here is going to predict that the offense will do anything but improve?

 

Everything I've seen/heard from Josh Allen suggests he is smart, competitive, and tough as nails.  His teammates already love him.  So yeah, if he can improve his numbers to something north of 55% completions, 3500 yards, and a 2.5-1 TD/INT ratio I think the Bills will be just fine.

 

Is this an indefensible "homer" post?  I really don't think so.  Tell me why expectations should be lowered.  And be civil.

 

You make some good points.  ST will improve I believe.  D should be better - points allowed must improve.  J. Allen - should be better as well - 55 %+ improvement is a MUST and he improve TD/INT ratio as you also mentioned.

 

I KNOW he's a fantastic athlete, however he needs to make plays with him arm and not just with his legs, and I think he may behind a much improved O-line.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, Jrb1979 said:

 

 

As far as a plan goes, a slow build approach is not needed in todays NFL.

That's exactly where I'm at. This notion of replicating what the Patriots have done is a pipe dream.

 

The Bills window is not YEARS from now. We have the HC, QB, and OC all going into year 2 together. That's more continuity than the Bears or the Rams, for instance, who made quantum leaps immediately upon hiring a NEW HC/OC in the QB's 2nd year. As far as the roster rebuild, that could get old quickly. They've had some time to develop a roster they're comfortable with. 

 

With Allen on his rookie deal, the time to win starts now.

Edited by LSHMEAB
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1 hour ago, LSHMEAB said:

That's exactly where I'm at. This notion of replicating what the Patriots have done is a pipe dream.

 

The Bills window is not YEARS from now. We have the HC, QB, and OC all going into year 2 together. That's more continuity than the Bears or the Rams, for instance, who made quantum leaps immediately upon hiring a NEW HC/OC in the QB's 2nd year. As far as the roster rebuild, that could get old quickly. They've had some time to develop a roster they're comfortable with. 

 

With Allen on his rookie deal, the time to win starts now.

If Allen and McD are going to win for 10 years, and I think they can, I can wait another year to get there. 

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I see Vegas is offering 6.5 wins for the year

 

take all your money and put it on 10 wins with this confidence

 

keep us updated 

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Allen can stay healthy for 16 games then 10 wins seems possible.  Bills suffered 4 blowout losses with Allen out or no starting.  Of the games he started the Texans and first Jets/Dolphins match ups should all have been wins.  That was with one of the worst O line/skill position groups in quite awhile.  I think I'm starting to drink the kool aid.  Regardless its should be fun long as he is healthy.  He's just fun and entertaining to watch

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57 minutes ago, DuckyBoys said:

Allen can stay healthy for 16 games then 10 wins seems possible.  Bills suffered 4 blowout losses with Allen out or no starting.  Of the games he started the Texans and first Jets/Dolphins match ups should all have been wins.  That was with one of the worst O line/skill position groups in quite awhile.  I think I'm starting to drink the kool aid.  Regardless its should be fun long as he is healthy.  He's just fun and entertaining to watch

 

I tend to think like this, until I remember that plenty of other teams are improving too.  Ten wins is tough.  It's tough. The Bills have to actually be good to win ten. 

 

It's possible and I would love it. I don't expect it. 

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7 hours ago, row_33 said:

I see Vegas is offering 6.5 wins for the year

 

take all your money and put it on 10 wins with this confidence

 

keep us updated 


Don’t you worry, I was on this over as soon as it came out. 

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17 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Yeah, I sort of liked Marrone. 

You know, so did I, at first. 

 

But then I waited on him a bunch, including the night he was doing the hard-sell on his big FA class of 2014. In an overheated 3rd floor dining room with Spikes, Dixon, Graham, and Rivers (who literally signed his contract mid-meal in a storage room) plus their families and the appropriate coaches, Marrone got himself fairly tuned up and went on and on about what a fu$%!ng awesome o-line coach he is because of his success in New Orleans. You know, the whole Saint Doug shtick. It was a real thing. 

 

He was somewhat likable from a jock-y perspective, with his downstate accent and bravado and his former o-lineman physical stature. But so damned aloof as coach of the Bills. 

 

(I had had a random, previous interaction with him in a Tipp Hill bar in Syracuse (while he was head coach there) that revealed a MUCH more humble and tolerant public persona, for the record. Made an instant fan out of me. But his private demeanor with the Bills was really ego-city).

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