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Having a hard time talking myself out of 10 wins for this team...

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18 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 

 

Solid points.

 

I am not so sure I am buying everything you write, that Belichek is some kinds of demi-god that is so vastly superior to the entire NFL, esp with the way players/coaches constantly move around.  There is no "magic" to what Belichek has been doing, it is called hard work.    His two other huge benefits are 1) consistency which ties into 2) Brady. imagine every year for the past 18? the NFLs number one concern, the QB, is an afterthought for the pats.  they have 95% certainty that Brady will finish the season, and to top it of he gives them a home town discount.  Talk about incredible benefit, that is as powerful as any.

 

Also solid points, especially regarding Brady.  But let’s not forget they got 11 wins with the greatness that is Matt Cassell. There are only so many hours in a day, so sometimes working hard and working smarter makes the difference. They have an underrated group of people surrounding Belichick including the OLine coach. They lose FA OLinemen who go elsewhere for lots of money....and lesser play. 

 

It’s a lot of things, and it is nearing an end. Both Brady and Belichick are not far from their finish lines. Maybe they can retire together in Florida and become Dolphin fans!  

 

 

.

Edited by Augie
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14 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 

 

Solid points.

 

I am not so sure I am buying everything you write, that Belichek is some kinds of demi-god that is so vastly superior to the entire NFL, esp with the way players/coaches constantly move around.  There is no "magic" to what Belichek has been doing, it is called hard work.    His two other huge benefits are 1) consistency which ties into 2) Brady. imagine every year for the past 18? the NFLs number one concern, the QB, is an afterthought for the pats.  they have 95% certainty that Brady will finish the season, and to top it of he gives them a home town discount.  Talk about incredible benefit, that is as powerful as any.

I think Belichick is a genius.   Most of the coaches in the league are incredible hard worker, but they don't win like the Patriots.   One characteristic that shows how much different the Patriots are from everyone else is how their offense morphs from style to style from week to week, depending on how they want to attack the opponent.  No one else does that.  That's technical brilliance coupled with hard work.   When the Patriots beat you with a 250-yard rushing game, and Brady goes 13-24 for 126 yards, that's Belichick, not Brady.   They do it to someone every season - last season it was the Bills.  

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6 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Did you just look at the box score for that Patriots game? 

 

Zay was non existent up until the last drive of the game when the game was well out of reach. 

 

There's no question he's improved from the disaster he was in 2017. He still has big issues in struggles getting separation and catching the football along with consistency. He look good against the Dolphins and the next week against the Jets he was dropping balls all over the field. 

 

At at this point he's an average reciever, probably a borderline #3 option on most teams.

 

6 hours ago, eball said:

 

I'm not about to predict that Zay Jones will suddenly become a star, but he was an incredibly accomplished receiver in college who did not drop balls.  That has to be mental.  Also, 2019 is Zay's first true offseason of participation because last year he was recovering from his Vegas escapade.  By all accounts he has added upper body strength and has been working on his route running.  He knows the offense, and he was able to create some chemistry with Josh last season.

 

If we are ever going to see something out of Zay it will be this year...and I'm cautiously optimistic.

 

The lengths you'll go to excuse players who've not proven themselves is amazing.  Writing off 2 off-seasons for Zay?  If you're doing that, may as well do it for every player who undergoes off-season surgery.  Morse, Beasley, and others have had procedures done that have impacted their prep for 2019.  Can we apply the same perspective to them?    

 

Frankly, I don't care what ZJ did at Coastal Carolina.  As a noted poster refers to him here, "Drop-Zone" Jones has a looooong way to go before securing even a supporting role on this team.  

 

A quick review of his 2018 output reveals ZJ accumulated much of his stats when games were out of hand. His 2 biggest games took place in blowout wins at NYJ and versus MIA.  And worse, when Allen started to show some signs of his potential late in the season, Zay wasn't exactly his guy and that remained the case in the final 6 games of the season.  Over those contests, ZJ was targeted 43 times by Allen and managed 19 receptions for 260 yards.  For a guy late into his 2nd season that's not exactly what you look for in a 2nd round pick they traded up for.   

 

And, this season those short yardage catches ZJ's been making are going to start heading Beasley's way.  The question is, where does ZJ fit in with Brown, Beasley, and Foster on this roster? I'm guessing if he doesn't show some significant improvement in camp he'll be finding himself 4th or 5th on the depth chart, particularly if Foster continues to excel. 

 

 

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3 things can make this a 10 win team.

 

The line is good. 
We can run the football. 

The QB is good.

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28 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think Belichick is a genius.   Most of the coaches in the league are incredible hard worker, but they don't win like the Patriots.   One characteristic that shows how much different the Patriots are from everyone else is how their offense morphs from style to style from week to week, depending on how they want to attack the opponent.  No one else does that.  That's technical brilliance coupled with hard work.   When the Patriots beat you with a 250-yard rushing game, and Brady goes 13-24 for 126 yards, that's Belichick, not Brady.   They do it to someone every season - last season it was the Bills.  

 

 

 

nicely done assessment 'Shaw..uncanny how he shows up EVERY year in the mix despite what we perceive as adversity and their "death knell"....for how long have the masses forecasted "this is THE year for Pats' demise"?.......yet the SOB keeps tickin' like that 'ol "John Cameron Swayze Timex In Your Top Drawer"?.....

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7 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

 

nicely done assessment 'Shaw..uncanny how he shows up EVERY year in the mix despite what we perceive as adversity and their "death knell"....for how long have the masses forecasted "this is THE year for Pats' demise"?.......yet the SOB keeps tickin' like that 'ol "John Cameron Swayze Timex In Your Top Drawer"?.....

Yeah, for three or four seasons I predicted the end was near for them.   Then about three years ago, I stopped.   It became obvious that the usual rules don't apply to them. 

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3 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Its a long shot but you never know.  I garuantee  some of the easy teams will be better than expected and some of the tough teams will play poorly.  It happens every season.

 

14 wins is incredible. The Pat's rarely get 14 wins with a lot of gifted wins in the division.

 

Anyone who thinks this team is going 14-2 is nuts. I'd love to be wrong but I'm unfortunately not going to be.

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Yeah, for three or four seasons I predicted the end was near for them.   Then about three years ago, I stopped.   It became obvious that the usual rules don't apply to them. 

The Pats are chameleon like. They quietly go about their business and efficiently dismantle other teams...someone said earlier that they can beat you in so many ways. Very disciplined unit that tackles well and is almost always in position. I had them written off 2-3 years ago...not happening yet.

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2 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

The lengths you'll go to excuse players who've not proven themselves is amazing


The lengths to which I’ll go? Good god, man, get a hold of yourself. Your disdain for anyone who doesn’t share your brand of pessimistic “realism” is really pathetic. 

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9 hours ago, eball said:

 

I'm not about to predict that Zay Jones will suddenly become a star, but he was an incredibly accomplished receiver in college who did not drop balls.  That has to be mental.  Also, 2019 is Zay's first true offseason of participation because last year he was recovering from his Vegas escapade.  By all accounts he has added upper body strength and has been working on his route running.  He knows the offense, and he was able to create some chemistry with Josh last season.

 

If we are ever going to see something out of Zay it will be this year...and I'm cautiously optimistic.

 

Adding upper body strength certainly will help if he dives out another window.

 

I am not sure why when players get hurt in offseason on their own time in activities unrelated to sports (i.e. getting a pizza, blowing off fire crackers, doing roll over for vehicles) that the team does not have the option to red shirt them requiring that be there for therapy, etc but having the time when they are not effective added to their contracts. I am sure the NFLPA would not agree but why should teams be paying for their mistakes.

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think Belichick is a genius.   Most of the coaches in the league are incredible hard worker, but they don't win like the Patriots.   One characteristic that shows how much different the Patriots are from everyone else is how their offense morphs from style to style from week to week, depending on how they want to attack the opponent.  No one else does that.  That's technical brilliance coupled with hard work.   When the Patriots beat you with a 250-yard rushing game, and Brady goes 13-24 for 126 yards, that's Belichick, not Brady.   They do it to someone every season - last season it was the Bills.  

 

It is not just genius, it is inside information.  Was Billicheat a winning coach before he hired his director of information (spying)?

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On 7/9/2019 at 11:09 AM, eball said:

With the days winding down until training camp starts I'm becoming more and more convinced that only a rash of key injuries will prevent McD's third team from compiling at least 10 wins and a playoff spot.  The schedule is favorable, particularly early, which means an already established defense (boosted by Ed Oliver) should be able to not only hold their own but control games.  This is the third year for many of these guys in the defense.  The secondary is second to none (can this even be disputed?).  Edmunds got a "free" year of NFL schooling, added bulk, and should now be playing rather than thinking.  Milano was a budding star before his leg snapped.  If the offense merely improves from awful to average that should be good enough.  Special teams can't be worse -- the Bills added one of the premiere return men in the game and washed the stale taste of Danny Crossman from our mouths.  Heath Farwell is energetic and ambitious, he has the respect of players because he was one of them, and I think he'll have guys trying to run through walls for his ST.

 

And let's talk about the offense.  Last year it was bad.  Through nine games, historically bad.  But then something happened.  Josh Allen returned from injury and made plays.  Enough plays to show us what he's capable of (as well as what he needs to work on).  More importantly, he got eleven weeks of coaching and preparing for NFL competition as "the man."  Through the final seven weeks of the season the Bills bore resemblance to an NFL offense -- despite receiving some of the shoddiest OL play I've ever witnessed.

 

Fast forward to the offseason.  Two veteran receivers added, including an expected "safety valve" for Allen.  A top line center.  Loads of veteran competition along the OL along with a promising rookie draft pick.  A new OL coach who has been spoken of highly around the league.  Gore and Singletary.  Who here is going to predict that the offense will do anything but improve?

 

Everything I've seen/heard from Josh Allen suggests he is smart, competitive, and tough as nails.  His teammates already love him.  So yeah, if he can improve his numbers to something north of 55% completions, 3500 yards, and a 2.5-1 TD/INT ratio I think the Bills will be just fine.

 

Is this an indefensible "homer" post?  I really don't think so.  Tell me why expectations should be lowered.  And be civil.

10  is my minimum target for this year, barring really bad luck on injuries.  They are set up well.  The schedule is favorable.  The team has improved on defense but has vastly improved on offense as a result of year 2 of Allen’s development and a potentially much improved OL and WR group. The coaching staff is also improved and  there should be no allowances for the new HC learning curve either. The culture is established and player leadership is in place.  Time to step up.  This is the “surprise” team of the AFC this year.  

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3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think Belichick is a genius.   Most of the coaches in the league are incredible hard worker, but they don't win like the Patriots.   One characteristic that shows how much different the Patriots are from everyone else is how their offense morphs from style to style from week to week, depending on how they want to attack the opponent.  No one else does that.  That's technical brilliance coupled with hard work.   When the Patriots beat you with a 250-yard rushing game, and Brady goes 13-24 for 126 yards, that's Belichick, not Brady.   They do it to someone every season - last season it was the Bills.  

I think you meant every season it's the Bills*.

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4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think Belichick is a genius.   Most of the coaches in the league are incredible hard worker, but they don't win like the Patriots.   One characteristic that shows how much different the Patriots are from everyone else is how their offense morphs from style to style from week to week, depending on how they want to attack the opponent.  No one else does that.  That's technical brilliance coupled with hard work.   When the Patriots beat you with a 250-yard rushing game, and Brady goes 13-24 for 126 yards, that's Belichick, not Brady.   They do it to someone every season - last season it was the Bills.  

 

I agree.  He is also brilliant at teaching the fundamentals and drilling situational football into his team's heads.  How many times have we seen a Bills offensive player get stood up by one defender and the next defender comes in and rakes the ball away (last year it was Croom).  They constantly get points at the end of the first half and then get the ball again in the second half and score.  They always seem to be in the right place at the right time -- you may attribute it to luck, but you don't get lucky 17 years in a row.  

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1 minute ago, 17years&waiting said:

 

I agree.  He is also brilliant at teaching the fundamentals and drilling situational football into his team's heads.  How many times have we seen a Bills offensive player get stood up by one defender and the next defender comes in and rakes the ball away (last year it was Croom).  They constantly get points at the end of the first half and then get the ball again in the second half and score.  They always seem to be in the right place at the right time -- you may attribute it to luck, but you don't get lucky 17 years in a row.  

Exactly. They all block, they all tackle.  They're rarely out of position.  It's the way football is supposed  to be played.  Fundamentals executed with consistent excellence.

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As a former sufferer of 10 win delusions I can share the cure - buy season tickets 

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11 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Yep.

 

They have a good test early against Bell and Barkley. I'm interested to see how the run defense responds. 

Totally agree. The most effective defenses stop the run (and of course get after the QB, but you can't necessarily get after the QB when the offense is getting after YOU).

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So if they don’t and with how confident people are, should changes be made? 🤔

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6 hours ago, Ol Dirty B said:

 

14 wins is incredible. The Pat's rarely get 14 wins with a lot of gifted wins in the division.

 

Anyone who thinks this team is going 14-2 is nuts. I'd love to be wrong but I'm unfortunately not going to be.

So you agree that it is possible.

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On 7/9/2019 at 12:45 PM, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

The only thing that worries me about this is most of the plays were with his legs.  If he can start making them with his arm, I'd agree.  And I do think there will be improvement too, the question is how much.  If he can bump his completion percentage up just 5%, that could be enough.  With the weapons added, I don't think that's out of reach either.

Did Steve Young making plays with his legs cause the 49ers a huge a mount of concern?

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14 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think Belichick is a genius.   Most of the coaches in the league are incredible hard worker, but they don't win like the Patriots.   One characteristic that shows how much different the Patriots are from everyone else is how their offense morphs from style to style from week to week, depending on how they want to attack the opponent.  No one else does that.  That's technical brilliance coupled with hard work.   When the Patriots beat you with a 250-yard rushing game, and Brady goes 13-24 for 126 yards, that's Belichick, not Brady.   They do it to someone every season - last season it was the Bills.  


Sports psychologists often apply the concept of "comfort zone" to athletes.  I think this concept also applies to coaches.  Clearly Belichick's is comfort zone is boundless.

When people talk about a team "elevating its play" during an NFL playoff game, I think it is more often that the other team was out of their comfort zone and played poorly.  

My main concern with the Bills coaching staff and the vast majority of its players has more to do with comfort zone, than it does to talent, work ethic, knowledge or skills.    The Bills coaches and players really aren't battle tested, and until we see how they respond to moving to the next level, its hard to know if they will succeed or not. 

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I've been thinking 10-6 for months.

 

AFC East  (4-2)

 

Sweep the Fish.

Split with the Jets.

Split with the Pats* (Bills take the home game).

 

AFC North (2-2)

 

Take the Bengals.

Take one of the next three (and for the life of me, I don't know which one.  I'm not going to get into that argument.  But the Ravens, Steelers and Browns are beatable)

 

NFC East (2-2)

 

Take the Giants and Skins.

Lose to the Cowboys and Eagles.  Sucks to lose in Dallas on Thanksgiving Day, but build your afternoon around it.

 

3rd Place teams (2-0)

 

Bills can handle both the Broncos and Titans

 

That's 10-6.  And doable.  Not "doable by a stretch".  Doable.

 

That first game against the Jets is HUGE.  I know national TV audience is going to look at that game with an earth-shattering yawn, and they'll probably bring some college intern aboard to handle color commentary, but for the Bills, it's HUGE.  1-0 to start the season in the AFC is money in the bank.

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10 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Exactly. They all block, they all tackle.  They're rarely out of position.  It's the way football is supposed  to be played.  Fundamentals executed with consistent excellence.

I think people overlook the value of the Patriots having had the same head coach and quarterback duo for as long as they’ve had. Together they bring consistency to both sides of the line of scrimmage. Brady’s like having your OC on the field. He can make adjustments right before the snap, while the other team of young twenty something kids are still catching their breath. And Bill has seen every offensive scheme in the book after three decades, while knowing he needs to spend very little time on his own offense. They don’t win them all but that consistency gets them at least nine wins to start every season.

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43 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I think people overlook the value of the Patriots having had the same head coach and quarterback duo for as long as they’ve had. Together they bring consistency to both sides of the line of scrimmage. Brady’s like having your OC on the field. He can make adjustments right before the snap, while the other team of young twenty something kids are still catching their breath. And Bill has seen every offensive scheme in the book after three decades, while knowing he needs to spend very little time on his own offense. They don’t win them all but that consistency gets them at least nine wins to start every season.

This is absolutely true.   It's like a perfect storm.  

 

I have always believed, and continue to believe, that Brady wouldn't have nearly as good any place else, and Belichick would have been good but not THIS good without Brady.  As you say, Brady's an OC on the field.  He has Belchick's work ethic, but more importantly he has a brain that somehow is in sync with Belichick's.   Belichick's genius is that he gets everyone else on the team, coaches and players, into the same mindset - do your job, do it right, do it every time.  Then he got a QB who learned to do that at the QB position and lead all the other offensive players to do it.   It's really quite amazing.   

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16 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think Belichick is a genius.   Most of the coaches in the league are incredible hard worker, but they don't win like the Patriots.   One characteristic that shows how much different the Patriots are from everyone else is how their offense morphs from style to style from week to week, depending on how they want to attack the opponent.  No one else does that.  That's technical brilliance coupled with hard work.   When the Patriots beat you with a 250-yard rushing game, and Brady goes 13-24 for 126 yards, that's Belichick, not Brady.   They do it to someone every season - last season it was the Bills.  

 

 

Maybe it is brilliance, then again as I wrote earlier it is consistency and having Brady.  Hell look at the Bills, they will be spending the next few years getting Josh Allen how to read defenses, how in the world could the Bills even contemplate doing what the Pats do, it is impossible.  Brady has seen every imaginable defense thrown against him multiple times, he makes head coach style decisions at the line of scrimmage.  That is one reason why even at his advanced age he is still an incredibly effective QB.  Take Brady out of the equation and lets see what happens with the Pats.  

 

Belichek a genius, maybe, but i think it has a lot more to do with consistency which ties into the number one most important position in football, QB and Brady, sadly is the GOAT.

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