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eball

Having a hard time talking myself out of 10 wins for this team...

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1 hour ago, eball said:

With the days winding down until training camp starts I'm becoming more and more convinced that only a rash of key injuries will prevent McD's third team from compiling at least 10 wins and a playoff spot.  The schedule is favorable, particularly early, which means an already established defense (boosted by Ed Oliver) should be able to not only hold their own but control games.  This is the third year for many of these guys in the defense.  The secondary is second to none (can this even be disputed?).  Edmunds got a "free" year of NFL schooling, added bulk, and should now be playing rather than thinking.  Milano was a budding star before his leg snapped.  If the offense merely improves from awful to average that should be good enough.  Special teams can't be worse -- the Bills added one of the premiere return men in the game and washed the stale taste of Danny Crossman from our mouths.  Heath Farwell is energetic and ambitious, he has the respect of players because he was one of them, and I think he'll have guys trying to run through walls for his ST.

 

And let's talk about the offense.  Last year it was bad.  Through nine games, historically bad.  But then something happened.  Josh Allen returned from injury and made plays.  Enough plays to show us what he's capable of (as well as what he needs to work on).  More importantly, he got eleven weeks of coaching and preparing for NFL competition as "the man."  Through the final seven weeks of the season the Bills bore resemblance to an NFL offense -- despite receiving some of the shoddiest OL play I've ever witnessed.

 

Fast forward to the offseason.  Two veteran receivers added, including an expected "safety valve" for Allen.  A top line center.  Loads of veteran competition along the OL along with a promising rookie draft pick.  A new OL coach who has been spoken of highly around the league.  Gore and Singletary.  Who here is going to predict that the offense will do anything but improve?

 

Everything I've seen/heard from Josh Allen suggests he is smart, competitive, and tough as nails.  His teammates already love him.  So yeah, if he can improve his numbers to something north of 55% completions, 3500 yards, and a 2.5-1 TD/INT ratio I think the Bills will be just fine.

 

Is this an indefensible "homer" post?  I really don't think so.  Tell me why expectations should be lowered.  And be civil.

 

The only thing that worries me about this is most of the plays were with his legs.  If he can start making them with his arm, I'd agree.  And I do think there will be improvement too, the question is how much.  If he can bump his completion percentage up just 5%, that could be enough.  With the weapons added, I don't think that's out of reach either.

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15 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

The only thing that worries me about this is most of the plays were with his legs.

 

The last time we saw Josh Allen in a game that counted he was 17/26 (65%) for 224 yards and 3 TDs (11% rate).

 

TDs to Foster against Jacksonville and Detroit were "big boy" throws.

 

Allen's running only makes him more dangerous as a passer if he has time and weapons.

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It's tough for me to imagine Josh playing well within the structure of an offense and what he'd look like doing it.  He didn't do that NFL year 1 or at Wyoming (maybe Jr. year?) but he had no choice.  He had to make off script plays to extend drives or take a seat.  As the team around him improves the question becomes "can he operate within the structure of what's called or is he hardwired to play Hero Ball?"  I commented in a different thread that he should play like Bruce Wayne until the Bat Signal goes up.  That mindset would be his formula to a successful season/career and that would elevate the play of his teammates.   But, he might not be inclined to play that way.

 

Ten is a legitimate target.  There is plenty of precedent for QBs getting their team there in NFL year 2.  The schedule gives them a chance to stack some wins early and then improve enough during the season to compete at the back end.  It's not crazy talk and these kinds of improvements have been occurring with regularity.   

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54 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

My realistic cap says 9.

This is where I’m  at too. It’s hard for me to wrap my head around the bills getting double digit wins. It’s been far too long, but it can certainly happen this year. 

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46 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 5-1 in the AFC East?  Seriously?

 

I am saying 3-3

2nd yr QB with a new coach and play scheme

  • I can see the Bills sweeping the NYETS 

 

FitzMagic and Rosen  

  • By week 7 the bills fresh off of a BYE the Fins may have started and benched Fitz by then leaving us a "still raw" Rosen so I can see the Bills sweeping the Fis as well.

 

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50 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 5-1 in the AFC East?  Seriously?

 

I am saying 3-3

I'm sorry, but this is completely doable. Dolphins are a joke. Jets with Gase coaching, Haha! This is our year to take the AFC East. Brady IS going to be slower this year. I can see it.

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The way this team is coming together...10 wins has to be soon. If not in 2019 then certainly 2020.

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2 hours ago, aristocrat said:

It's all about allen. 

The Oline too- 4 question marks. Better than last years question marks, but still a concern.

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2 hours ago, eball said:

With the days winding down until training camp starts I'm becoming more and more convinced that only a rash of key injuries will prevent McD's third team from compiling at least 10 wins and a playoff spot.  The schedule is favorable, particularly early, which means an already established defense (boosted by Ed Oliver) should be able to not only hold their own but control games.  This is the third year for many of these guys in the defense.  The secondary is second to none (can this even be disputed?).  Edmunds got a "free" year of NFL schooling, added bulk, and should now be playing rather than thinking.  Milano was a budding star before his leg snapped.  If the offense merely improves from awful to average that should be good enough.  Special teams can't be worse -- the Bills added one of the premiere return men in the game and washed the stale taste of Danny Crossman from our mouths.  Heath Farwell is energetic and ambitious, he has the respect of players because he was one of them, and I think he'll have guys trying to run through walls for his ST.

 

And let's talk about the offense.  Last year it was bad.  Through nine games, historically bad.  But then something happened.  Josh Allen returned from injury and made plays.  Enough plays to show us what he's capable of (as well as what he needs to work on).  More importantly, he got eleven weeks of coaching and preparing for NFL competition as "the man."  Through the final seven weeks of the season the Bills bore resemblance to an NFL offense -- despite receiving some of the shoddiest OL play I've ever witnessed.

 

Fast forward to the offseason.  Two veteran receivers added, including an expected "safety valve" for Allen.  A top line center.  Loads of veteran competition along the OL along with a promising rookie draft pick.  A new OL coach who has been spoken of highly around the league.  Gore and Singletary.  Who here is going to predict that the offense will do anything but improve?

 

Everything I've seen/heard from Josh Allen suggests he is smart, competitive, and tough as nails.  His teammates already love him.  So yeah, if he can improve his numbers to something north of 55% completions, 3500 yards, and a 2.5-1 TD/INT ratio I think the Bills will be just fine.

 

Is this an indefensible "homer" post?  I really don't think so.  Tell me why expectations should be lowered.  And be civil.

 

I really have a hard time with the offensive side of the ball being so unproven, and weak at key positions.  I feel like the defense alone could account for 6-7 wins, but I'm not sure the offense can wrangle in the remaining 3-4 wins to get to 10-6.  This team is going into the season 0-2 just like every other year in the last 20 years, so it just really makes it hard to buy in.  In order for your prediction to be legit in my mind, Josh Allen has to do for the Bills what John Elway did for the Broncos in the early 80's.  He needs to be able to carry the weak offensive skill positions on his back until one of them emerges as a real threat.  McCoy is no longer a threat.

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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

The reason I am still a little nervous about committing to 10 wins is I think there remain a lot of questions about the offensive weaponary. The defense could still do with a little more pass rush but I am very high on Oliver and I think that unit will be a top 10 unit again (maybe not quite as high as #2) and I expect Josh Allen to play better (a Trubisky style year 2) and I think the offensive line will be improved but when I look around that at the offensive pieces:

 

RB:

McCoy - how much is left? I still think enough. But if I am wrong that is a worry.

Gore - hard yards guy still but the wall will come at some point. How long can he still play?

Singletary - can he be a 3 down back? I have my doubts.

 

WR:

Foster - I think he is going to really emerge this year as their #1 but what if he is a flash in the pan? He wouldn't be the first young unheralded receiver to fizzle and then fade.

Beasley - He is a good slot receiver, but is that the type of guy that Josh Allen is ever going to get the most out of?

Brown - Can play and if he ends up as a #2 or #3 option he will contribute. Worried if he has to be the guy.

Jones - his NFL career is on the line - can he make the big jump he needs to in terms of getting open and catching the ball?

 

TE:

Kroft - I like him quite a bit and think he is underrated by many here but can he get and then stay healthy? Major question mark at this point.

Knox - I like him a lot too but he is a raw, high ceiling guy. The plan was undoubtedly to bring him on slowly in 2019 and have him win the job next offseason.

Croom - I like him less than Pegula's daughter.

 

Can the Bills cobble together enough offense from those guys without Josh needing to force it and play hero ball every single week? If they can then I think they will, on this schedule, win 10 games and could even win 11 or 12. If they can't then they will end up 7-9 or 8-8.

 

I think I have higher expectations than you for the defense.  I believe they will be dominant.  Communication should be effortless and if McD is preaching aggressiveness at camp I predict they will come out on fire and play that way all year.

 

This is the primary reason I believe the offense merely has to improve to average for this 10-win projection to come true.

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anyone hear sirius nfl at around 1?  they were going over mystery teams in the afc east, and one of the hosts picked buffalo, (it was someone on with brady quinn).  i couldn't hear the entire blurb, but like we all know, they felt it centered around who josh allen will become.  just curious if there was more to it that i missed.

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8 minutes ago, eball said:

 

I think I have higher expectations than you for the defense.  I believe they will be dominant.  Communication should be effortless and if McD is preaching aggressiveness at camp I predict they will come out on fire and play that way all year.

 

This is the primary reason I believe the offense merely has to improve to average for this 10-win projection to come true.

 

I think the defense can be very, very good. Better than last year as an all round defense but I'd be surprised if they were top 2 again in yards (which is the official rank). I can see them being mid top 10 in both yards and points, continuing to be good in yards per play and 3rd down and better (though not yet great) in the redzone. 

 

My doubts are whether the weapons are there. I think they have enough but they all have some sort of question. There isnt one single hang your hat on him guy. I believe the Bills should be a playoff contender. But the weapons are how I can talk myself out of it. 

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48 minutes ago, \GoBillsInDallas/ said:

ill-smoke-some-of-what-hes-smoking.jpg

 

 

you know, cause like its real easy to win on the road in the NFL and then easily beat the Pats in week 4

 

 

 

 

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With this offensive lineup, I think 8-8 would be a very solid achievement for the 2019 Bills. 

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

My doubts are whether the weapons are there. I think they have enough but they all have some sort of question. There isnt one single hang your hat on him guy. I believe the Bills should be a playoff contender. But the weapons are how I can talk myself out of it.

 

There are many learned NFL scholars out there who will tell you the QB elevates the receivers, not the other way around.  If the OL gives Allen time and he has made a "natural" progression from Y1 to Y2 the weapons should be good enough, given his talent.

 

Edited by eball

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1 minute ago, Boatdrinks said:

With this offensive lineup, I think 8-8 would be a very solid achievement for the 2019 Bills. 

They were a .500 team last year in games Josh started and finished.  Do you think an extra win or two is too much to shoot for?  Like E-Ball posted, just being an average offense could take them a long way toward a better record.

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2 hours ago, Rico said:

I think it will take a while and maybe a couple moves for the OL to jell.

 

I’m also not sure about the WR’s. I think Beasley is vastly overrated by this fanbase, and there’s no guarantee that Foster and Zay will progress. John Brown is nice, but I don’t know that he will be enough of a difference maker.

 

That being said, I think both units will be improved over last year’s, and the schedule looks good in July. I believe in Josh, and if things break right, I can see a playoff team this year.

I agree, but it certainly won’t be easy. I’m glad we get the Jests at the beginning, because Darnold really impressed me. Should we lose the Opener (not out of the realm of possibility), we’ll be 0-2 in the Division by Week 4, then travel to Tennessee. I’m not intending to be a negative Nancy. Shart Happens. I no longer look at schedules this time of year and pick Ws & Ls like we could in SB era. Everything changes dramatically, year by year in the NFL.

 

If it comes down to ‘Win & In’ vs Jests in the finale, I’ll be happy.

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5 minutes ago, eball said:

 

There are many learned NFL scholars out there who will tell you the QB elevates the receivers, not the other way around.  If the OL gives Allen time and he has made a "natural" progression from Y1 to Y2 the weapons should be good enough, given his talent.

 

 

I think that is true when you get a veteran elite guy. I don't think it is generally true of 2nd year raw prospects like Josh. I think he will be better. But to be really good he will need help. 

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4 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

They were a .500 team last year in games Josh started and finished.  Do you think an extra win or two is too much to shoot for?  Like E-Ball posted, just being an average offense could take them a long way toward a better record.

It’s not too much to shoot for, by any means. I simply don’t expect it. A few games will always surprise, both negative nad positive. The Bills are not yet at the point where winning is to be expected, and won’t be until they prove otherwise. If Allen stays healthy the entire season, perhaps 10 will be achievable if a lot of other things go well. The thread is about taling oneself out of a ten win season, which is still easy to do for this team. 

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4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think that is true when you get a veteran elite guy. I don't think it is generally true of 2nd year raw prospects like Josh. I think he will be better. But to be really good he will need help. 

 

Josh turned Zay Jones into a threat over the final five weeks of the season.

 

Just sayin'... ;)

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18 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

I agree, but it certainly won’t be easy. I’m glad we get the Jests at the beginning, because Darnold really impressed me. Should we lose the Opener (not out of the realm of possibility), we’ll be 0-2 in the Division by Week 4, then travel to Tennessee. I’m not intending to be a negative Nancy. Shart Happens. I no longer look at schedules this time of year and pick Ws & Ls like we could in SB era. Everything changes dramatically, year by year in the NFL.

 

If it comes down to ‘Win & In’ vs Jests in the finale, I’ll be happy.

I want to win every game of course, but I think a slower start (with plenty of Fire McBeane posts) followed by a nice run to the playoffs would be rather hilarious in here. :D

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1 minute ago, Rico said:

I want to win every game of course, but I think a slower start (with plenty of Fire McBeane posts) followed by a nice run to the playoffs would be rather hilarious in here. :D

 

Some people just want to watch the world burn...

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