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Having a hard time talking myself out of 10 wins for this team...

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On ‎7‎/‎9‎/‎2019 at 12:16 PM, Rico said:

I think it will take a while and maybe a couple moves for the OL to jell.

 

I’m also not sure about the WR’s. I think Beasley is vastly overrated by this fanbase, and there’s no guarantee that Foster and Zay will progress. John Brown is nice, but I don’t know that he will be enough of a difference maker.

 

That being said, I think both units will be improved over last year’s, and the schedule looks good in July. I believe in Josh, and if things break right, I can see a playoff team this year.

I can't decide if OL or JA is the bigger question mark.  I think the over/under on 10 wins is 12 and 8.  We can't assume that the OL automatically clicks.  It usually takes a couple of years for one to play as a unit.  If we see Shady running more north/south, instead of east/west, in early games, then we could be in for a fun ride.  Go Bills!!! 

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On 7/9/2019 at 8:58 AM, Stank_Nasty said:

whether people believe in Allen or not, its really hard to ignore the teams record with him and then without him in games last year.

 

He out performed Nasty Nate and Derek Anderson, neither of which is still on the team. That's a positive.

 

the team had it's best winning percentage with Matt Barkley under center.

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On 7/9/2019 at 9:25 AM, LABILLBACKER said:

My realistic cap says 9.

 

my hat says 19-0

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16 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

my hat says 19-0

 

Does your hat have a good track record? 

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McD coached a team to 9 wins that inarguably still had less talent than what we have on paper now. I’m chugging KoolAid like it’s...KoolAid. 11 wins! 

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On 7/11/2019 at 10:07 AM, Shaw66 said:

I think this is correct.  I think athletes' comfort zone comes from being prepared.   And it isn't just athletics.   I've done some public speaking over the years, and it's clear that study and practice and technique all are important, but the real key is that when you put it all together, when you've developed some skills AND you're really prepared, you get up there and you're thinking "I've got this."  

 

I like and agree with your perspectives.  You I can see are a very thoughtful/intelligent person.  I tend to be a big believer in doing something 200 times so it can be ingrained in your memory and or muscles to the point you can do it blind folded.  It takes time though and a lot of effort but personally that's how I gain confidence completing tasks.

 

On the other hand though a usual critique of Allen I read from outside fans is his accuracy and getting throws in tight windows.  Is there certain skills though you feel you either have or don't?  Accuracy sometimes comes up as something innate.  It's like I can devote my life to trying to make the NBA but it's not gonna happen.  

 

 

 

 

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14 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

He out performed Nasty Nate and Derek Anderson, neither of which is still on the team. That's a positive.

 

the team had it's best winning percentage with Matt Barkley under center.

 

Do you think the Barkley fans will become as irrational as the Johnson fans?

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a) It all rests on Allen's improvement 

b) let's see what injuries we get before the season

c) We really need to win the first 3 games if we are going to shoot for a 9-10 in season.

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3 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

Do you think the Barkley fans will become as irrational as the Johnson fans?

 

I put the over/under for how many PS games before a Baker should start, or the UB kid to start at 2.  Probably will be started by the person with the karate kid avatar.

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On 7/11/2019 at 9:34 AM, RoyBatty is alive said:

One last note on Belichek that we are all forgetting.  I recall very vividly Belichek on a boat talking with the blowhard Jimmie Johnson, Bleichek said one very important thing, "you cant fix stupid" (or something close to that), in other words get smart players.  The PAts put a premium on smart and hard working players.  Kyle Van Noy said after the super bowl that everyone on the defense know how to play multiple positions and know the system inside and out.  Look at the Bills, you realize last year we started 11 different rookies last year?  How are you going to implement anything close to what the Pats do when you start 11 different rookies.  Not even in the same universe.

I might suggest McBeanes understand this fully.
it is the same Universe. because to beat the Pats you need to understand why they win.

 McD does. hea has said as much.

 The way Bills are building suggest as much.  winning with depth reflects on Coaching and GM foresight. i think Bills have that now.

18 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

my hat says 19-0

The Senator would agree with your Hat.

 as do i

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19 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

He out performed Nasty Nate and Derek Anderson, neither of which is still on the team. That's a positive.

 

the team had it's best winning percentage with Matt Barkley under center.

 

That's not a great accomplishment unfortunately.

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On 7/11/2019 at 8:18 AM, Shaw66 said:

But all you're saying, both in this post and talking about Brady, is that McBeane are correct in their approach.   They have implemented a process intended to build long-term success, and that process will take multiple years.   Of course, the Bills won't do in 2019 what the Patriots can do in 2019.   But even the 2002 Patriots couldn't do what the 2019 Patriots can do, either.  It took time to build the machine the Patriots have, a machine that now has an endless stream of interchangeable parts, a machine that works so long as Belichick and Brady are there. 

 

Well, Belichick did win a SB the previous season, his second with New England. These things can come together quickly if done properly. Results are the only true measure of success.

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6 hours ago, Another Fan said:

I like and agree with your perspectives.  You I can see are a very thoughtful/intelligent person.  I tend to be a big believer in doing something 200 times so it can be ingrained in your memory and or muscles to the point you can do it blind folded.  It takes time though and a lot of effort but personally that's how I gain confidence completing tasks.

 

On the other hand though a usual critique of Allen I read from outside fans is his accuracy and getting throws in tight windows.  Is there certain skills though you feel you either have or don't?  Accuracy sometimes comes up as something innate.  It's like I can devote my life to trying to make the NBA but it's not gonna happen.  

 

 

 

 

I am not worried about Allen's accuracy.  I think the concerns are part myth (from his college career and all the draft commentary), part based on on the fact that he didn't throw short much last season, and part based on his being rushed on short throws because he was sometimes late deciding to take the short pass.  

 

What I think we will see is that Allen has been told since the end of last season that the offense plays better if he takes the short pass.   So I think he won't be late coming to the short guy and will therefore be more focused on throwing an accurate ball.  I dont believe his actual mechanics are a problem; I think if there's been a problem it's  being late and being rushed.

 

I think as the result of this change, his completion percentage will go up to the low or mid-60s. People will say he got more accurate, but it actually will be because he will make quite Kerry and better decisions. 

3 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Well, Belichick did win a SB the previous season, his second with New England. These things can come together quickly if done properly. Results are the only true measure of success.

Yes, they had won it all the year before, but my point was that the system hadn't been institutionalized yet.  They weren't yet able to have sustained year after year success.  It took a few more years for that.  And it took a few more years for Brady to become the GOAT.  That's when it all came together.  

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6 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

 

Yes, they had won it all the year before, but my point was that the system hadn't been institutionalized yet.  They weren't yet able to have sustained year after year success.  It took a few more years for that.  And it took a few more years for Brady to become the GOAT.  That's when it all came together.  

I understand your point about sustained success, but Belichick and Brady won a Superbowl their first season together. I think many of us would be much more confident that sustained success was on the horizon if the Bills were to, God forbid, win a SUPERBOWL.

 

It didn't take them long to start winning. 

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2 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I understand your point about sustained success, but Belichick and Brady won a Superbowl their first season together. I think many of us would be much more confident that sustained success was on the horizon if the Bills were to, God forbid, win a SUPERBOWL.

 

It didn't take them long to start winning. 

It wasn't their first season together.  Their first season together they were 5-11 and Brady didn't play.  

 

Beyond that, I think Belichick is a genius, and I'm not saying g McD can replicate Belly's success.  What I'm saying is that he is replicating the team building approach, which is why I expect success to come a little more slowly.  

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On 7/11/2019 at 10:07 AM, Shaw66 said:

I think this is correct.  I think athletes' comfort zone comes from being prepared.   And it isn't just athletics.   I've done some public speaking over the years, and it's clear that study and practice and technique all are important, but the real key is that when you put it all together, when you've developed some skills AND you're really prepared, you get up there and you're thinking "I've got this."  

 

You can see the Patriots improving through the season, and you can see the players able to make plays in tight games, late in the season.  They aren't big plays - they're ordinary plays.  Just deflect the pass, just make the catch.  And then every once in a while you'll see Edelman make a miracle catch, and all it is is determination and focus.   Then they get to the playoffs and it all steps up.   No one looks out of place, no one is flustered.  

 

I think McDermott is completely focused on this concept.   I think that's what he's teaching.  He's trying to load his team with fast, good athletes who will work all day, every day just to make the play they're supposed to make.  Not the great play, not the extraordinary play, just the play they're supposed to make.  If they make the tackle, great, but if they're making the play they're supposed to make sometimes it just means that some teammate makes the play HE's supposed to make and makes the tackle.   He teaching a total team concept.  He's teaching people that if you make the play on punt coverage that allows your teammate to make the tackle, your defensive teammates can keep the other guys off the scoreboard.   

 

I've seen this concept working in McD's defense from his first season.  You see it most easily in the safeties.  Hyde and Poyer have been in a comfort zone almost since they arrived.   They know where they're supposed to be and they go there.  They just do it.  The result is that someone makes a play, maybe them, maybe someone else.   I think that's the difference we see in Hughes's play, too.  When McD arrived, the game stopped being about Jerry and started being about the defense.   And I see the same thing when I watch Belichick's defense.   Other than the shut down corner, it's hard to see anyone out there who looks great - they all just look like when the play comes to them, they make it.  They all know they can make the ordinary play, they're in a comfort zone about it.   And when 11 guys are making the ordinary play, every time - going where they're supposed to go, taking on the block, filling a zone, whatever - when they all do it every time, the collective effort is great.   

 

And, to you're point, to you have that, you have to learn to move your comfort zone from the practice field to the games, from the games to the post-season and into the Super Bowl.   You can be ready, and the moment's not too big for you.   But, to use an oft-repeated word around here, it's a process.   You have to experience the comfort zone on the practice field first, and then you have to learn to get into that zone in games.   You make some mistakes along the way, because you lose focus when the bright lights are on, but once you regain the focus, the comfort zone returns.  Then you get to the playoffs and you have to learn to stay in the comfort zone.  The beauty of what Belichick and Brady have done is that they've built a nucleus that has learned this and internalized it, so that, as you say, the comfort zone is limitless.   A new player comes to the team, and they pull him into this process that is churning away.  IF the player doesn't conform to that mentality, he gets spit out and another guy is plugged in.  Some guys are naturals, like Hogan.   There simply was no question in my mind that Hogan would succeed in New England.   He's the prototype for Belichick - really good athlete, determination, work ethic, doesn't care who gets the credit.  

 

It's pretty obvious that that's what McD is trying to do.   When McBeane talk about the kind of guys they're looking for, it's the Hogans, the Milanos.  That's why, although people pooh-pooh it, some of us get excited about a guy like David Sills.  Will Sills make it?  I have no idea.  But I do know that he is the prototype, just like Hogan.   He's going to do his job, every day, he's going to do it with focus and determination.  When he gets his chance to play, he's going to be ready and he's going to be in his comfort zone, because that's how he's always done things.  He's going to run the route, make the block, fill the zone, whatever, and when the play comes his way, he'll make it, because he's ready to make it.  

 

And, McD has a QB who fits perfectly.   Allen wants to be better and better.  He studies, he works he practices.   He's smart.   You can see him growing into HIS comfort zone.   He has the same kind of intangibles Brady has, down to the chip on his shoulder, having been dissed by so many people from high school through college and the draft.   And, by the way, he's much better physically than Brady.   Better arm, better mobility, better ability to move in the pocket.   I think we're looking at, potentially, the next Chuck Noll and Terry Bradshaw, potentially the next Jimmy Johnson and Troy Aikman, yes, potentially even the next Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. 

 

I know you really want to BILLieve badly that the Bills are finally going to turn it around and have success, I just don't see it. Copying the Pats may seem like a great idea but they are an outlier on how teams are built. You need elite talent to win in this league, plug and play guys will only get you so far. Antonio Brown was the type of WR the Bills have needed for a long time. I know Brown nixed the deal but the fact so many Bills fans didn't want him shows me they only want elite talent as long as they aren't me first players. 

 

As far as QB's go, just cause a guy studies film, practices hard, and is mobile doesn't make him a franchise guy. You also need to me accurate and have good completion percentage, which Allen has never had yet in his career. QB's don't suddenly become accurate over night. 

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24 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

I know you really want to BILLieve badly that the Bills are finally going to turn it around and have success, I just don't see it. Copying the Pats may seem like a great idea but they are an outlier on how teams are built. You need elite talent to win in this league, plug and play guys will only get you so far. Antonio Brown was the type of WR the Bills have needed for a long time. I know Brown nixed the deal but the fact so many Bills fans didn't want him shows me they only want elite talent as long as they aren't me first players. 

 

As far as QB's go, just cause a guy studies film, practices hard, and is mobile doesn't make him a franchise guy. You also need to me accurate and have good completion percentage, which Allen has never had yet in his career. QB's don't suddenly become accurate over night. 

 

Fair enough. I get you want to see the baby, and that’s OK. Will Josh become the real deal? I have no idea, but I think he has about a 50/50 chance. If he’s the guy, we will be fine. 

 

As for copying the Pats....I don’t see that. I think we draft better and will get younger cheaper talent. We just don’t have the best QB who ever lived. That hurts a bit. 

 

I’m fine with missing out on a head case and cap sucker like AB. I’d have loved his talent, but I’m not sure I’d want the rest of his package. I trust the FO on this call. Me first is not the right kind of guy. You can feel free to go all out betting on the Raiders over the next 4-5 years. I’ll take the Bills over that same period.  

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48 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

I know you really want to BILLieve badly that the Bills are finally going to turn it around and have success, I just don't see it. Copying the Pats may seem like a great idea but they are an outlier on how teams are built. You need elite talent to win in this league, plug and play guys will only get you so far. Antonio Brown was the type of WR the Bills have needed for a long time. I know Brown nixed the deal but the fact so many Bills fans didn't want him shows me they only want elite talent as long as they aren't me first players. 

 

As far as QB's go, just cause a guy studies film, practices hard, and is mobile doesn't make him a franchise guy. You also need to me accurate and have good completion percentage, which Allen has never had yet in his career. QB's don't suddenly become accurate over night. 

I don't agree about talent.  Nobody out-talents the other teams for very long.

 

I discussed accuracy above.  I dont think accuracy is a serious problem with Allen.  This year will answer the question, because he will throw a lot of short balls.  We will see.

 

It's true I'm a Billiever, but I understand the process can fail for any number of reasons.  I don't see a lot of point in arguing that the Bills should be doing something else.  It's  obvious what the approach is McBeane are following, and it's a slow-build approach.  Beyond that, however, I actually do believe it's a good approach.  At least there's a plan. Whaley and Marrone and Rex all seemed to be winging it.  

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1 hour ago, Augie said:

 

Fair enough. I get you want to see the baby, and that’s OK. Will Josh become the real deal? I have no idea, but I think he has about a 50/50 chance. If he’s the guy, we will be fine. 

 

As for copying the Pats....I don’t see that. I think we draft better and will get younger cheaper talent. We just don’t have the best QB who ever lived. That hurts a bit. 

 

I’m fine with missing out on a head case and cap sucker like AB. I’d have loved his talent, but I’m not sure I’d want the rest of his package. I trust the FO on this call. Me first is not the right kind of guy. You can feel free to go all out betting on the Raiders over the next 4-5 years. I’ll take the Bills over that same period.  

For a team like the Bills who lack talent at WR, a guy like Antonio Brown is something the Bills can use. Talent wins in this league, a bunch of plug and play WRs doesn't usually work. I will take a guy like OBJ or AB over Beasley or Foster every day of the week. 

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