thebandit27 Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 Here's a very cool, detailed analysis by Football Outsiders on success of each route in the NFL tree on third down. Definitely worth a read: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/third-down-and-air-yards Might provoke some good discussion now that we've entered the doldrums of the offseason. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badassgixxer05 Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 Guessing right on what the defense will be running will have the best results no matter what offense you will be running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 1 minute ago, badassgixxer05 said: Guessing right on what the defense will be running will have the best results no matter what offense you will be running. Great insight! Catching the ball will result in more completions as well. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted May 2, 2019 Author Share Posted May 2, 2019 43 minutes ago, eball said: Great insight! Catching the ball will result in more completions as well. Funny stuff. I especially liked the item in the article that talked about the difference in EPA between a deep ball INT on 3rd down and a short completion. For years, I've said that deep throws attempted on 3rd down cannot possibly have a bad result; the worst case scenario is it becomes a punt. Best case is a DPI or TD. Hopefully, now that the Bills (presumably) have an OL that can pass protect for more than 1/3 of a second, we'll see more 3rd down deep shots this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeviF Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 (edited) 15 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Funny stuff. I especially liked the item in the article that talked about the difference in EPA between a deep ball INT on 3rd down and a short completion. For years, I've said that deep throws attempted on 3rd down cannot possibly have a bad result; the worst case scenario is it becomes a punt. Best case is a DPI or TD. Hopefully, now that the Bills (presumably) have an OL that can pass protect for more than 1/3 of a second, we'll see more 3rd down deep shots this year. Well, there's always the scenario of a big return off an INT. Not sure how likely that is vs. a big return off a punt, but I get your point. Part of what was encouraging to me last year was the willingness to throw it past the sticks on 3rd and 7+. Now there's data to help support my assumption! Not that data to the contrary would have changed my mind. I am a football fan, after all. Edited May 2, 2019 by LeviF91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 There are a lot of contributing factors here. Distance to first down, the WR running the routes, the QB throwing the ball, and the defensive formation. I can see where the Post and Corner routes would be more successful as it puts more pressure on the Safeties, CB's, and LB's possibly dropping into Zone coverages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 Is this where Cole Beasley becomes our Hero?? Speaking of ..... Has there been a Cole Beasley sighting in Buffalo????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Cubed Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 A lot of the route choices look like the ole "live to fight another day" conservatism that still remains in the NFL. It's odd. It's a lot like going for it on 4th down, that is slowly being changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 I hate Route concepts that bring a WR short of the sticks on third down. Seems just as much of a give up play as the Shaud Williams draw was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsSbSoon Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 I like calls that have man and zone beaters combined. And then you get to the line and adjust from there if needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 22 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: I hate Route concepts that bring a WR short of the sticks on third down. Seems just as much of a give up play as the Shaud Williams draw was I agree as we’ve often gotten terrible results on these plays. Makes it even more maddening when you see the Pats* WR make a 4 yard reception on 3rd and 7 , yet you just know they will pick up the first. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 44 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: I hate Route concepts that bring a WR short of the sticks on third down. Seems just as much of a give up play as the Shaud Williams draw was There has to be a concept of crossing routed near the sticks and some speedsters going deep. We have deep threats and with Bease we have a short to medium threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 1 hour ago, thebandit27 said: Funny stuff. I especially liked the item in the article that talked about the difference in EPA between a deep ball INT on 3rd down and a short completion. For years, I've said that deep throws attempted on 3rd down cannot possibly have a bad result; the worst case scenario is it becomes a punt. Best case is a DPI or TD. Hopefully, now that the Bills (presumably) have an OL that can pass protect for more than 1/3 of a second and a QB with a Howitzer we'll see more 3rd down deep shots this year. See emphasis above. I completely agree when you're talking 3rd and long -- not so much when it's 3rd and 5 or less. You need to move the chains. I'm very much in favor of deep shots on 2nd down, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOUSE Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 3 hours ago, thebandit27 said: Here's a very cool, detailed analysis by Football Outsiders on success of each route in the NFL tree on third down. Definitely worth a read: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/third-down-and-air-yards Might provoke some good discussion now that we've entered the doldrums of the offseason. Not True, the Robert Kraft thread could go on for months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris heff Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 11 minutes ago, eball said: See emphasis above. I completely agree when you're talking 3rd and long -- not so much when it's 3rd and 5 or less. You need to move the chains. I'm very much in favor of deep shots on 2nd down, though. Best time to take a deep shot is second and two. 1 minute ago, HOUSE said: Not True, the Robert Kraft thread could go on for months Or it might only last seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Direhard Fan Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 QB reading the "D" is the most important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 You stack two WRs in the slot and the one in the back rubs off the one in the front based on the alignment of the secondary. It essentially works every time. Assuming the distance is reasonable it’s virtually impossible to stop and can’t understand why the Bills have never figured this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 Now with 17 on the Bills, the ‘best route’?: ‘Run like a mofo, catch it, and don’t drop it!’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Boy Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 The one that gets you a first down??? Man, I ought to be a coach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmur66 Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 4 hours ago, thebandit27 said: Funny stuff. I especially liked the item in the article that talked about the difference in EPA between a deep ball INT on 3rd down and a short completion. For years, I've said that deep throws attempted on 3rd down cannot possibly have a bad result; the worst case scenario is it becomes a punt. Best case is a DPI or TD. Hopefully, now that the Bills (presumably) have an OL that can pass protect for more than 1/3 of a second, we'll see more 3rd down deep shots this year. Jim Kelly used to be the master of going long on 3rd down. Worst case it’s like a punt. Much better chance of a pass interference call these days too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warcodered Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 4 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said: Is this where Cole Beasley becomes our Hero?? Speaking of ..... Has there been a Cole Beasley sighting in Buffalo????????? Don't know he wasn't there the one day apparently due to the weather and the rest weren't open to the media. But Chris Brown had that video where in the background players were being brought for pictures and short videos that are used in the broadcasts so he probably was here for that at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 ...probably way off base, but it always seemed like 3rd down was the "down from hell" on BOTH sides of the ball...with the thread being about offense, seemed to me annually when the opposition had 3rd and 15+ yds, they'd clear out the middle and hit their TE in rhythm in the seam for an easy 1st down...time and time again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 6 hours ago, badassgixxer05 said: Guessing right on what the defense will be running will have the best results no matter what offense you will be running. talent talent talent on your side of the ball 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 I figured the best route would be the illegal pick and run that the pats use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 7 hours ago, thebandit27 said: Funny stuff. I especially liked the item in the article that talked about the difference in EPA between a deep ball INT on 3rd down and a short completion. For years, I've said that deep throws attempted on 3rd down cannot possibly have a bad result; the worst case scenario is it becomes a punt. Best case is a DPI or TD. Hopefully, now that the Bills (presumably) have an OL that can pass protect for more than 1/3 of a second, we'll see more 3rd down deep shots this year. If you aren’t throwing at the sticks you may as well throw far past the sticks on 3rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daz28 Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 6 hours ago, MAJBobby said: I hate Route concepts that bring a WR short of the sticks on third down. Seems just as much of a give up play as the Shaud Williams draw was Speaking of giving up on Shaud. lol His interview starts at :50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Joshin' Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 8 hours ago, HOUSE said: Not True, the Robert Kraft thread could go on for months The gift that keeps on giving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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