Daniel Jeremiah mock #3 (Hockenson to Bills)

[Cornette's Commentary]

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Nope...you are failing to give weight to positional value. I can find a blocking TE that can also catch 40 passes in rounds 3-7.  If I'm spending a top-10 pick, I want an elite player.

 

Maybe you don't, and that's fine, but there's nothing incorrect about drafting for value over need.

Gronkowski, Kelce, Ertz, Hunter Henry, Tyler Higbee.  What's one thing that they all have in common?  NONE OF THEM were taken in the 1st round, let alone the top 10.

[Mr. WEO]

19 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

He better catch 70+ passes for 1,000+ yards if they pick him in the top 10

 

 

Why should the bar be outrageously high for a TE at #9...as opposed to say, a T or a G where the bar would be....well, who knows what it would be.

 

No rookie TE has had the season you describe since, what, Ditka?

 

Anyway....this would be a bold (well maybe not even very bold) pick in a position of need.  Do IT!  Come on McD---start clapping those hands for HOCK!!

 

 

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Gronkowski, Kelce, Ertz, Hunter Henry, Tyler Higbee.  What's one thing that they all have in common?  NONE OF THEM were taken in the 1st round, let alone the top 10.

 

True, but that's not really the crux of my point.

 

I think we'd all agree that, if 2018 George Kittle was taken in the first round, we'd say he was well worth the pick.  But if Hockenson is indeed projected to be a blocking TE that only produces 50+ receptions and 700+ yards, that's not worth a top-10 selection.

 

The TE position, as a whole, is dying in the current NFL.  There are 3 TEs that topped 1,000 yards, and only 2 others that topped 700.

 

The best example that I can think of for not drafting a blocking TE that can also be a passing weapon is Trey Burton. He was a force as a blocker, and had 50+ catches, 500+ yards, and 6 TDs. Yet he was a late-round pick and a FA acquisition.  You don't need to spend a top-10 pick on that.

[FluffHead]

Git r dun 

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Why should the bar be outrageously high for a TE at #9...as opposed to say, a T or a G where the bar would be....well, who knows what it would be.

 

No rookie TE has had the season you describe since, what, Ditka?

 

Anyway....this would be a bold (well maybe not even very bold) pick in a position of need.  Do IT!  Come on McD---start clapping those hands for HOCK!!

 

 

 

See above

[Cornette's Commentary]

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

See above

Walter Football keeps a pretty updated list of prospects who have visited OBD.  There are 3 TEs on that list: Noah Fant, Isaac Nauta and Jace Sternberger.  For what you're describing, Sternberger in the 3rd would make the most sense.

However, as I said earlier, if they trade down into the teens (while hopefully getting an extra 2nd) and they think Hockenson, or Fant, is the BPA, then take one of them.

Edited April 16, 2019 by Cornette's Commentary

[RussellDopeland]

Hockenson?? At pick NINE?

[Mr. WEO]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

 

See above

 

 

I disagree that the TE is "dying" when your only proof is that only 3 that topped 1000 yards and 2 at 700. 

 

Blocking TE with 50+ and 700+ on this team....vs a Tackle or a Guard at 9?  This is easier than you are making it...

[DJB]

18 minutes ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Meanwhile, Star and Jordan Phillips struggle at stopping the run and putting any pressure on the QB.

 

This team will only be successful if Josh Allen is successful.  Hockenson does that more than a DT

[Bray Wyatt]

If the first 8 fall this way, trade back, no Hock in the top 10. 

[Bangarang]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

I disagree that the TE is "dying" when your only proof is that only 3 that topped 1000 yards and 2 at 700. 

 

Blocking TE with 50+ and 700+ on this team....vs a Tackle or a Guard at 9?  This is easier than you are making it...

 

A blocking TE isn’t top 10 pick material unless he’s also putting up big numbers in the passing game.

[Cornette's Commentary]

1 minute ago, DJB said:

 

This team will only be successful if Josh Allen is successful.  Hockenson does that more than a DT

Allen could put up 500 yards and 5 TDs a game, and it won't mean a thing if they're always playing from behind because they struggle at stopping the run or pressuring the QB.

Did you enjoy watching Leonard Fournette and Marlon Mack torch the defense last season?

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, Bangarang said:

 

A blocking TE isn’t top 10 pick material unless he’s also putting up big numbers in the passing game.

 

50+ and 700+ is, by any definition, "putting up numbers in the passing game"  for a TE.  It would have made him the number 1 receiver on this team in each of the past 3 seasons.

[DJB]

6 minutes ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Allen could put up 500 yards and 5 TDs a game, and it won't mean a thing if they're always playing from behind because they struggle at stopping the run or pressuring the QB.

Did you enjoy watching Leonard Fournette and Marlon Mack torch the defense last season?

 

We cant have everything as we dont have multiple top ten picks.

 

The best chance this franchise has to becoming a successful year in year out playoff team is if Josh Allen is successful. 

 

Hockenson helps.  

[Alphadawg7]

6 hours ago, DJB said:

 

You are evaluating him incorrectly then. This isn't fantasy football.  The stuff Hockenson does at the line in both pass blocking and run blocking will have monumental effects on the rest of the offence.  Add in the fact teams will have to factor him in the short and intermediate range allowing our speed guys more room. 

 

Hockenson would be a home run selection 

 

This.  

 

Hockenson value is is more than just WR1 or WR2 like stats.  Best TEs in the league are guys who typically put up 750 to 900 yards, 7-12 TDs.  Why, because the best TEs are also solid blockers too and also help open up the throwing lanes to the outside guys when they are an under neath threat when running routes.  

 

We don’t need a 1000 yard receiver for the TE to be great.  What we need is a TE who is a legit receiving threat but who also is valuable blocker in the pass and run game. 

 

With Foster and Brown a homerun threat each play, and someone like Hock to go along with Cole to be first down machines and dangerous short to mid route guys, we would have a pretty tough passing offense to defend as we can put high pressure on all levels of the defense on every play.

 

And I think we will see the ball spread around a lot and the offensive stats will resemble those of the Rams where everyone has solid to good stats versus one guy dominating stat production.  Plus with the rebuilt OL, Josh development, and more receiving weapons, I think it’s reasonable to expect a pretty big bounce back from our run game too.

 

Kelce was a 1000 yard receiver last year, but it also took an insane statistical season, one of the best ever, from Mahomes to do that.  I thinks it’s unrealistic to expect a TE who plays multiple roles in a balanced offense to put up over 1000 yards unless he is one of your two main offensive weapons like Jimmy Graham was for Saints.  

Edited April 16, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[somnus00]

I think Hock is a great prospect...

 

But how often is a tight end a difference maker? Just my opinion, but I wouldn't take a tight end with a top 10 pick. It's a bit of a luxury pick. I want d-line help on this team. We need it.

[thebandit27]

10 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

50+ and 700+ is, by any definition, "putting up numbers in the passing game"  for a TE.  It would have made him the number 1 receiver on this team in each of the past 3 seasons.

 

Yes, that's the exact point.  That level of production is not worth a top-10 pick.

[BillsWest]

Only one WR chosen in the first round in this mock.

 

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Yes, that's the exact point.  That level of production is not worth a top-10 pick.

 

 

ok

[Nihilarian]

2009 Arron Maybin #11

2010 CJ Spiller #9

2011 Marcel Dareus #3

2012 Stephon Gilmore #10

2013 EJ Manuel #16

2014 Sammy Watkins #4 & Cleveland's pick 2015 Cameron Irving #19

2016 Shaq Lawson #19

2017 TreDavious White #27 traded back from #10 Patrick Mahomes

 

So, who have the Buffalo Bills drafted in the last decade that was honestly worthy of that pick? Gilmore, who is now a Patriot with a SB ring. Dareus, who got paid and became a JAG in Buffalo.

 

Anyway, I'd be all for Hock at #9 and he wouldn't have to put up Kittle, Kelce, Cook or Ertz numbers his first season. I'd be happy with the 2018 Ebron performance and know that his ceiling is very high like that of Josh Allen in that he could be another Gronk or Gonzalez. Buffalo hasn't had a TE like this...ever!

 

Gil Brandt ranks Hockenson at the #6 best player in this years draft. 

 

6

T.J. Hockenson, TE

 

 

School: Iowa | Year: Sophomore (RS) 
Hockenson, who played two seasons at Iowa after redshirting in 2016, can and will block and is a very good receiver downfield. He will help his team's running game. The very competitive Hockenson played faster than his 4.7 40 time. He also posted a 37.5-inch vertical jump and a 7.02-second three-cone drill at the combine. He will play a long time at a high level and should be a first-year starter in the NFL.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 16, 2019 by Nihilarian

[whatdrought]

Hockenson and Oliver have reached the top of my wishlist. I’d be happy with either.

[dave mcbride]

38 minutes ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Gronkowski, Kelce, Ertz, Hunter Henry, Tyler Higbee.  What's one thing that they all have in common?  NONE OF THEM were taken in the 1st round, let alone the top 10.

Gronk would have been if not for the back issue. He was regarded as a generational talent at the position. He dropped because of the back, but still went near the top of the second round. Hockenson is no Gronk. 

[dubs]

49 minutes ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Meanwhile, Star and Jordan Phillips struggle at stopping the run and putting any pressure on the QB.

 

Its too bad the draft is only 1 round long. Would be awesome to get to draft more than one player each year. 

[dorquemada]

1 hour ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Unless you know for a fact that Hockenson is going to have a Tony Gonzalez/Gronkowski-esque, Hall of Fame career, NO tight end is worth the 9th pick. Full stop.

But, if they trade down into the teens, then, sure, take Hockenson or Noah Fant if they're the BPA.  Otherwise, if Jeremiah's mock holds true, I'd rather take Rashan Gary or Montez Sweat at 9 than a freaking tight end.

 

If there's one thing the Bills need, it's Aaron Maybin 2.0

[dave mcbride]

10 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Yes, that's the exact point.  That level of production is not worth a top-10 pick.

I think you're failing to factor in the possibility that teams often see having a very good TE as the best way to increase the possibility that the QB that the franchise revolves around will not flame out and will instead develop into a true franchise QB. Greg Olsen (a late first rounder) definitely made Newton a better and more consistent QB. Do you think Carolina regrets that pick? Like Olsen, Hockenson is 6'5". An elite TE is the best safety net a young QB could ever have, and let's face it: the Bills' fortunes for the next decade are going to rise and fall with Allen, not some DT who will likely be gone in five years. 

 

Also, how is TE not a major position? We're fans of a team that has never had a good one. Ernie Warlick is the best they've had. 

[gobills1212]

1 hour ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

You'd be elated to watch a defensive line that won't be able to get to the quarterback or stop the run?  Is your plan for them to use a 2nd on Khalen Saunders from the vaunted Western Illinois defense and hope that he turns into the next Aaron Donald or Fletcher Cox?

If that really is your plan, I hope watching Hockenson catch 300 passes for 40 touchdowns brings you joy, as the defense gets gashed in the running game week in and week out.

Yikes man, tell us how you REALLY feel....

[JM57]

36 minutes ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Walter Football keeps a pretty updated list of prospects who have visited OBD.  There are 3 TEs on that list: Noah Fant, Isaac Nauta and Jace Sternberger.  For what you're describing, Sternberger in the 3rd would make the most sense.

However, as I said earlier, if they trade down into the teens (while hopefully getting an extra 2nd) and they think Hockenson, or Fant, is the BPA, then take one of them.

You are obsessed with the defensive line and use Walter football as a reference. It's 2019 and you're stuck in 2002 my dude

[Mrbojanglezs]

it depends on how highly Daboll values TE, coming from NE, I bet its pretty high. We filled the WR bucket decently in FA, if the top DTs are off the board I could see this happening. Would create some nice PA fake opportunities out of 22 personnel.

 

Id rather try to trade down a few spots though and pick up another 2nd or 3rd.

[ndirish1978]

I doubt we take Hock is Sweat is sitting there

[CommonCents]

BPA in that scenario is Devin White. By a good margin. Don’t do it Beane.

[Nihilarian]

NFN, in 2014 this team has had the #4 overall defense with the #1 pass rush in the league and they didn't even make the playoffs.

 

Oh yea, the player that cost the team two firsts and a fourth in Sammy Watkins played in all 16 games was targeted 128 times and caught 65 receptions for 982 yards, 6 TDs. Watkins had a 50.8 catch percentage. 

 

TJ Hockensen caught 49 passes for 750 yards, 6 Tds last season for the Hawkeyes and dropped one pass! 

 

 

 

 

[Rocket94]

Devin White will probably be gone...I would not hesitate to take him. Reminds me of Patrick Willis. I would find somewhere to put him.

[NewEraBills]

Wouldn't be thrilled with the pick but wouldn't hate it either.

[MrEpsYtown]

If that's the way the board falls I am all for Hockenson. He's a pretty unique prospect in a lot of ways and I think that our team is in a unique situation. Forget about bias from the past and things of that nature. His selection here makes a ton of sense on a lot of levels. And he's a better prospect than all the crap offensive linemen that people want becuase they are safe. He's likely the BPA in that situation. I also, and I've mentioned this a bunch of times, think that the Bills would be wise to hide their interest in Hockenson as best as they can to avoid having someone trade up into that 8 spot. 

[Cornette's Commentary]

7 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

NFN, in 2014 this team has had the #4 overall defense with the #1 pass rush in the league and they didn't even make the playoffs.

 

Oh yea, the player that cost the team two firsts and a fourth in Sammy Watkins played in all 16 games was targeted 128 times and caught 65 receptions for 982 yards, 6 TDs. Watkins had a 50.8 catch percentage. 

 

TJ Hockensen caught 49 passes for 750 yards, 6 Tds last season for the Hawkeyes and dropped one pass! 

 

 

 

 

Well, the QBs in that season were EJ Manuel and Kyle Orton.

[Rocket94]

I would not hate it. Devin White appears to be for real. 

[hjnick]

1 hour ago, JM57 said:

I've been "stanning" for Hockenson for a couple months now  Beane's quote yesterday got me excited at first, where he was saying they grade tight ends 3 ways and I thought that really was good for Hockenson since he is both a very capable blocker and receiver. 

 

However the more I've digested it I don't think he's the pick right now. That's just too obviously broadcasting your love for a guy, a la Doug Whaley.

This is the Beane quote that stood out to me..

"If your down at this level in the draft, let's just say you're at 25, and you have a guy that is on the top tier of your draft board. The first round, I divide it into three (tiers): top, middle and bottom. If you have a guy in the top tier, he's by himself up there and think he's a real impact - you're talking about a rare player at his position, that might be the time to do it. But you also have to consider what is the cost? Is the cost too much where it's going to effect the rest of your draft or potentially future drafts?"

 

Like it is has always been, it really depends on how Beane (and the staff) see Hock. If he's a Gronk style of player (all pro, good at all 3 phases), he will be considered for the 9th pick.  Anything less than a Gronk style player and they will pass.

 

With that mock, I'd love for Buffalo to trade down to around 13 and Hock still might be there...

[C.Biscuit97]

2 hours ago, WMDman said:

Ed Oliver over Quinnen Williams would be a shock

Agreed. But say if Oliver and Williams switched college teams, how would both look?  Williams is a really good player on an all time great defensive line.  Oliver was the only guy in Houston.  DJ is one of the best draft “experts” in the business. 

[thebandit27]

22 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I think you're failing to factor in the possibility that teams often see having a very good TE as the best way to increase the possibility that the QB that the franchise revolves around will not flame out and will instead develop into a true franchise QB. Greg Olsen (a late first rounder) definitely made Newton a better and more consistent QB. Do you think Carolina regrets that pick? Like Olsen, Hockenson is 6'5". An elite TE is the best safety net a young QB could ever have, and let's face it: the Bills' fortunes for the next decade are going to rise and fall with Allen, not some DT who will likely be gone in five years. 

 

Also, how is TE not a major position? We're fans of a team that has never had a good one. Ernie Warlick is the best they've had. 

 

I guess I look at it this way: the absolute best TEs touch the ball 80+ times per year and accumulate over 1,000 yards in offense.  If you feel very confident that you're getting one of those guys, then yeah, use a top-10 pick.

 

By contrast, when you get past the top 3 TEs in the game, you're into WR2-at-best numbers, and that's only 3-4 players...and I'm not convinced that a WR2 is worth a top-10 pick.

 

It's different if you're talking about a LT that is a terrific pass blocker and can handle his business in the run game; that's a guy that's going to be effective on every snap, and potentially take away a defense's most critical asset: it's top pass-rusher.  When you look at a TE, can he be a downright dominant blocker so as to effect the game every snap, AND be a key receiving threat in the passing game?  Those guys are extremely rare.  So rare, in fact, that Olsen is really the last first-round TE to have a very good career.

[C.Biscuit97]

59 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

A blocking TE isn’t top 10 pick material unless he’s also putting up big numbers in the passing game.

Yeah, that fair.  I think this franchise terrible underrates TE and I think every young qb needs a good one. Kroft is ok and so is Croom.  I would love to have a legit matchup nightmare who is a great blocker.  TEs do so much for your offense.