Daniel Jeremiah mock #3 (Hockenson to Bills)

[Cornette's Commentary]

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Nope...you are failing to give weight to positional value. I can find a blocking TE that can also catch 40 passes in rounds 3-7.  If I'm spending a top-10 pick, I want an elite player.

 

Maybe you don't, and that's fine, but there's nothing incorrect about drafting for value over need.

Gronkowski, Kelce, Ertz, Hunter Henry, Tyler Higbee.  What's one thing that they all have in common?  NONE OF THEM were taken in the 1st round, let alone the top 10.

[Mr. WEO]

19 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

He better catch 70+ passes for 1,000+ yards if they pick him in the top 10

 

 

Why should the bar be outrageously high for a TE at #9...as opposed to say, a T or a G where the bar would be....well, who knows what it would be.

 

No rookie TE has had the season you describe since, what, Ditka?

 

Anyway....this would be a bold (well maybe not even very bold) pick in a position of need.  Do IT!  Come on McD---start clapping those hands for HOCK!!

 

 

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Gronkowski, Kelce, Ertz, Hunter Henry, Tyler Higbee.  What's one thing that they all have in common?  NONE OF THEM were taken in the 1st round, let alone the top 10.

 

True, but that's not really the crux of my point.

 

I think we'd all agree that, if 2018 George Kittle was taken in the first round, we'd say he was well worth the pick.  But if Hockenson is indeed projected to be a blocking TE that only produces 50+ receptions and 700+ yards, that's not worth a top-10 selection.

 

The TE position, as a whole, is dying in the current NFL.  There are 3 TEs that topped 1,000 yards, and only 2 others that topped 700.

 

The best example that I can think of for not drafting a blocking TE that can also be a passing weapon is Trey Burton. He was a force as a blocker, and had 50+ catches, 500+ yards, and 6 TDs. Yet he was a late-round pick and a FA acquisition.  You don't need to spend a top-10 pick on that.

[FluffHead]

Git r dun 

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Why should the bar be outrageously high for a TE at #9...as opposed to say, a T or a G where the bar would be....well, who knows what it would be.

 

No rookie TE has had the season you describe since, what, Ditka?

 

Anyway....this would be a bold (well maybe not even very bold) pick in a position of need.  Do IT!  Come on McD---start clapping those hands for HOCK!!

 

 

 

See above

[Cornette's Commentary]

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

See above

Walter Football keeps a pretty updated list of prospects who have visited OBD.  There are 3 TEs on that list: Noah Fant, Isaac Nauta and Jace Sternberger.  For what you're describing, Sternberger in the 3rd would make the most sense.

However, as I said earlier, if they trade down into the teens (while hopefully getting an extra 2nd) and they think Hockenson, or Fant, is the BPA, then take one of them.

Edited April 16, 2019 by Cornette's Commentary

[RussellDopeland]

Hockenson?? At pick NINE?

[Mr. WEO]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

 

See above

 

 

I disagree that the TE is "dying" when your only proof is that only 3 that topped 1000 yards and 2 at 700. 

 

Blocking TE with 50+ and 700+ on this team....vs a Tackle or a Guard at 9?  This is easier than you are making it...

[DJB]

18 minutes ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Meanwhile, Star and Jordan Phillips struggle at stopping the run and putting any pressure on the QB.

 

This team will only be successful if Josh Allen is successful.  Hockenson does that more than a DT

[Bray Wyatt]

If the first 8 fall this way, trade back, no Hock in the top 10. 

[Bangarang]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

I disagree that the TE is "dying" when your only proof is that only 3 that topped 1000 yards and 2 at 700. 

 

Blocking TE with 50+ and 700+ on this team....vs a Tackle or a Guard at 9?  This is easier than you are making it...

 

A blocking TE isn’t top 10 pick material unless he’s also putting up big numbers in the passing game.

[Cornette's Commentary]

1 minute ago, DJB said:

 

This team will only be successful if Josh Allen is successful.  Hockenson does that more than a DT

Allen could put up 500 yards and 5 TDs a game, and it won't mean a thing if they're always playing from behind because they struggle at stopping the run or pressuring the QB.

Did you enjoy watching Leonard Fournette and Marlon Mack torch the defense last season?

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, Bangarang said:

 

A blocking TE isn’t top 10 pick material unless he’s also putting up big numbers in the passing game.

 

50+ and 700+ is, by any definition, "putting up numbers in the passing game"  for a TE.  It would have made him the number 1 receiver on this team in each of the past 3 seasons.

[DJB]

6 minutes ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Allen could put up 500 yards and 5 TDs a game, and it won't mean a thing if they're always playing from behind because they struggle at stopping the run or pressuring the QB.

Did you enjoy watching Leonard Fournette and Marlon Mack torch the defense last season?

 

We cant have everything as we dont have multiple top ten picks.

 

The best chance this franchise has to becoming a successful year in year out playoff team is if Josh Allen is successful. 

 

Hockenson helps.  

[Alphadawg7]

6 hours ago, DJB said:

 

You are evaluating him incorrectly then. This isn't fantasy football.  The stuff Hockenson does at the line in both pass blocking and run blocking will have monumental effects on the rest of the offence.  Add in the fact teams will have to factor him in the short and intermediate range allowing our speed guys more room. 

 

Hockenson would be a home run selection 

 

This.  

 

Hockenson value is is more than just WR1 or WR2 like stats.  Best TEs in the league are guys who typically put up 750 to 900 yards, 7-12 TDs.  Why, because the best TEs are also solid blockers too and also help open up the throwing lanes to the outside guys when they are an under neath threat when running routes.  

 

We don’t need a 1000 yard receiver for the TE to be great.  What we need is a TE who is a legit receiving threat but who also is valuable blocker in the pass and run game. 

 

With Foster and Brown a homerun threat each play, and someone like Hock to go along with Cole to be first down machines and dangerous short to mid route guys, we would have a pretty tough passing offense to defend as we can put high pressure on all levels of the defense on every play.

 

And I think we will see the ball spread around a lot and the offensive stats will resemble those of the Rams where everyone has solid to good stats versus one guy dominating stat production.  Plus with the rebuilt OL, Josh development, and more receiving weapons, I think it’s reasonable to expect a pretty big bounce back from our run game too.

 

Kelce was a 1000 yard receiver last year, but it also took an insane statistical season, one of the best ever, from Mahomes to do that.  I thinks it’s unrealistic to expect a TE who plays multiple roles in a balanced offense to put up over 1000 yards unless he is one of your two main offensive weapons like Jimmy Graham was for Saints.  

Edited April 16, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[somnus00]

I think Hock is a great prospect...

 

But how often is a tight end a difference maker? Just my opinion, but I wouldn't take a tight end with a top 10 pick. It's a bit of a luxury pick. I want d-line help on this team. We need it.

[thebandit27]

10 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

50+ and 700+ is, by any definition, "putting up numbers in the passing game"  for a TE.  It would have made him the number 1 receiver on this team in each of the past 3 seasons.

 

Yes, that's the exact point.  That level of production is not worth a top-10 pick.

[BillsWest]

Only one WR chosen in the first round in this mock.

 

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Yes, that's the exact point.  That level of production is not worth a top-10 pick.

 

 

ok

[Nihilarian]

2009 Arron Maybin #11

2010 CJ Spiller #9

2011 Marcel Dareus #3

2012 Stephon Gilmore #10

2013 EJ Manuel #16

2014 Sammy Watkins #4 & Cleveland's pick 2015 Cameron Irving #19

2016 Shaq Lawson #19

2017 TreDavious White #27 traded back from #10 Patrick Mahomes

 

So, who have the Buffalo Bills drafted in the last decade that was honestly worthy of that pick? Gilmore, who is now a Patriot with a SB ring. Dareus, who got paid and became a JAG in Buffalo.

 

Anyway, I'd be all for Hock at #9 and he wouldn't have to put up Kittle, Kelce, Cook or Ertz numbers his first season. I'd be happy with the 2018 Ebron performance and know that his ceiling is very high like that of Josh Allen in that he could be another Gronk or Gonzalez. Buffalo hasn't had a TE like this...ever!

 

Gil Brandt ranks Hockenson at the #6 best player in this years draft. 

 

6

T.J. Hockenson, TE

 

 

School: Iowa | Year: Sophomore (RS) 
Hockenson, who played two seasons at Iowa after redshirting in 2016, can and will block and is a very good receiver downfield. He will help his team's running game. The very competitive Hockenson played faster than his 4.7 40 time. He also posted a 37.5-inch vertical jump and a 7.02-second three-cone drill at the combine. He will play a long time at a high level and should be a first-year starter in the NFL.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 16, 2019 by Nihilarian