McBeane's Moves Now Are For 2020 Success

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

Definitely not opposed to grabbing a TE in the draft, but I think the Bills may have something  in Croom.  The Bills most important needs in my opinion, both through FA and the draft, are WRs, the trenches, and a RB.

[formerlyofCtown]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

I remain fascinated by the $87m in cap space. When taken as a whole it sounds like quite a pile, but when people on here start tossing around free agent salary expectations it quickly evaporates into just a couple of under performing castaway veterans.

 

The question then is a simple one: How many new proven veteran starters do you get with $87m? If you can answer that you’ll be able to better assess the 2019 Bills.

2 guys and the rest will be guys like Long.  They will probably send 40 mil into next year.

[Augie]

4 hours ago, papazoid said:

anything can happen in this league

 

Even holding against the Pats* OLine? I’m going back to the Ninja vs Unicorn thread! 

 

 

?

[Punching Bag]

58 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

2027 is our year, guys!

 

Then take a break and come back then to tell us you were right.

[nedboy7]

Really?  You are already gonna start lecturing us on accepting mediocrity one more year. 

[dickleyjones]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Let's just give these guys 10 years to figure things out. 

 

While teams like the Bears and Rams turn their seasons around in one year, Bills will catch everyone by surprise in year 8 of this regimes tenure.??

yeah...that's what he said...

[Jpsredemption]

Keep kicking the van down the road. Typical.

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Let's just give these guys 10 years to figure things out. 

 

While teams like the Bears and Rams turn their seasons around in one year, Bills will catch everyone by surprise in year 8 of this regimes tenure.??

This is the case with both teams in this town. I constantly ask...when are they actually going to try to win? Every year is some bogus storyline about how they are in the midst of a rebuild and they aren’t ready quite yet. For the Sabres it’s about the 12th year of that.

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

I'm going to respectfully disagree with you. Playoffs should be an expectation this year.

 

Take a look around the NFL at teams that have drafted QB's in the last few years. The blueprint is to make the playoffs in your young QB's 2nd season (note that the Rams, Bears, and Texans were all awful for their young QB's rookie season). They turned it around in the 2nd season to become legit contenders. 

 

Rams - Made the playoffs in Goff's 2nd season. Made SB in his 3rd season

Bears - Made the playoffs in Trubisky's 2nd season.

Chiefs - Made the playoffs in Mahome's 2nd season. 

Texans - Made the playoffs in Watson's 2nd season. 

Eagles - Won the SB in Wentz's 2nd season (although he was hurt) 

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...2018 laid a solid foundation....2019 with 10 picks and $$$FA loot is the main course......2020 will be the desert.......

[CheshireCT]

The best franchises establish top-tier, consistent coaching. Then they draft the players that they think fit, extend the guys that do in fact fit correctly and live up to expectation, let go of the ones that don’t or become unaffordable, and sign “good” free agents who can play and jump in immediately without breaking the bank. I think most franchises at least TRY to follow this method, and if they don’t it’s because of emotions, desperation, or some kind of pressure to “win now!”

 

What I like about the current leadership is that they seem mentally strong enough to follow through with their plans, without bending to some deconstructive outside pressure. It seems like they have a good cohesive vision as well.

 

With that in mind, I don’t think there is a target date to compete. I think the target is to establish the correct culture and system in Buffalo, the results will follow for many years if they’re successful. I would guess that the Bills won’t be on fire next season, but hopefully they show something for the future and are fun to watch.

[RochesterRob]

11 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

Hey Success,

 

I'm hoping for 9 wins this season, 10 would be miraculous. That would put us in the Wild Card hunt.   I still don't know if it would be enough to catch New England.  The Pats will probably come out of the division at 5-1 (that's based on us stealing one from them).   Even If we do split with New England and they are 5-1 in the division, they only have to be one game over .500 for the remainder of their schedule to get to 11 wins.  I just don't see 11 wins for us this season.

 

I hope you're right and I'm wrong. 

 

  

  I'm thinking 9-10 wins for the season is very possible and the playoffs are 60/40 against making it.  I think that the division winners will be NE, Pittsburgh, Indy, and the Chiefs.  Chargers and Browns (that's right, the Browns) for the Wild Card.  Buffalo, Houston, and one other team just missing in the last 2 weeks.  Pittsburgh pulls another rabbit out of their hat winning the division despite the offseason drama preceding camp.

[apuszczalowski]

They wont see 2020 with the Bill's if they dont vastly improve over last season. Will the excuse be that 2020 will be another development year all part of their plan next offseason too?

 

You cant sray out rebuilds in today's sports leagues. Theres til migh money to be lost if you throw away multiple years to "rebuild"

[BADOLBILZ]

12 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

Good morning BADOLBILZ   ?

 

I'm not dismissing any mistakes.  They certainly made some.  Every GM and coach make mistakes, especially first time GMs and coaches, but I'm not ignoring their good moves either.  On the whole, I think they have been doing a pretty good job with the hand they were dealt . 

 

Beane wheeled and dealed to accumulate the draft stock to go and get Allen last year, someone who has the potential to be a franchise QB.  So far that is looking like a good move. 

 

As for free agency, I don't know what you expected Beane to do in free agency last year with the worst dead cap space situation in the league that he inherited.  I liked Beane's approach to just rip the bandaid off and take his lumps in one year of cap space hell instead of paying the debt down over several seasons.  It has resulted in a robust $87 MM in cap space this year.  Looks like a solid GM move to me.

 

I'm hopeful the team takes a step forward this year too.  I guess I disagree with you that I am willing to accept another year of mediocrity if it tees us up for a run in 2020.  I think I have a longer timeline that you do on this one, that's all.  Our roster and our cap situation, hell everything about this franchise has been a dumpster fire for such a long time, I think it's just going to take a bit longer to get it turned around.  So far, McBeane has earned some good will from me and I'm willing to give them some time. 

 

The off season seems sooo long, I am already anxious for kickoff.  One good thing about the off season this year is that I'm only two hours from Nashville and my son and I will be there for the draft this year representing TBD.  If the camera pans on a Bills fan with a Steve Tasker jersey on who looks just like Matthew McConaughey, except for being bald, a little more fat, and way more ugly,  that's me!  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oh I think that based on the personnel alone.........it's easier to project success for this team 2-3 years down the road than it is this year.

 

I mean aside from Shaq all of the draft picks left on this roster were made by McDermott and or Beane.

 

That is the core of talent.

 

And peak of performance expected in a players career is generally around second-contract time.........so when White and Dawkins and Milano and Allen and Edmunds are all near walk years you can probably expect their best production.

 

But in the meantime this isn't occurring in a vacuum.............sh*t happens when a coach doesn't win.

 

For the sake of "the process".........which involves the players having faith in the HC's ability to out-coach the guy on the other sideline on a regular basis.......... McD needs to get off the mat this year and prove himself a difference maker.

 

Nobody in the league buys into 4-5 year plans any longer..........2 is enough........3 is plenty........4 is "this probably ain't the guy".

 

And as I said.........McD absolutely has to start being competitive in Patriots games..........he's somehow been less competitive than any of the prior HC's since Belichick arrived in NE.

 

The upside here is that should McD fail at this........but Allen pans out and a good base of talent and effort players is in place.........perhaps a coach who can actually finish the job would be interested in the job this time.

 

 

 

Edited February 16, 2019 by BADOLBILZ

[jletha]

I think making the playoffs with Josh Allen would be a massive success, especially if Allen looks good. I don't think anyone is expecting a SB run after last season. The moves this offseason will be for 2019 and 2020 success. 

 

The point is there is no more tanking moves (trading stars, getting rid of QBs, etc). 2019 needs to show real progress towards building a contender behind Josh Allen. 

[formerlyofCtown]

12 hours ago, Success said:

I think we have a good shot at the division this season.

Ill let you know after the offseason.

[BillsSB2020]

4 minutes ago, jletha said:

I think making the playoffs with Josh Allen would be a massive success, especially if Allen looks good. I don't think anyone is expecting a SB run after last season. The moves this offseason will be for 2019 and 2020 success. 

 

The point is there is no more tanking moves (trading stars, getting rid of QBs, etc). 2019 needs to show real progress towards building a contender behind Josh Allen. 

This is how I feel as well. I have a great deal of confidence in the regime after a sterling draft and the overall upward trend toward the end of 2018, but I'm going to be extremely disappointed if there's not SERIOUS progress in 2019. This is all theoretical as I expect them to do just that. Just can't totally agree with the OP that 2019 isn't something of a show me year.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

So we’re just going to excuse a poor 2019 already? 

 

 

‘Gel’ - a Bills fake made up fan word where magically individual poor NFL lineman suddenly are good when strung together as a group? 

[Rockinon]

I guess we should just stay home and not even bother to watch them this year then. This is in response to the OP.  Didn't even bother to read the rest of this thread.

Edited February 16, 2019 by Rockinon

[jletha]

3 hours ago, BillsSB2020 said:

This is how I feel as well. I have a great deal of confidence in the regime after a sterling draft and the overall upward trend toward the end of 2018, but I'm going to be extremely disappointed if there's not SERIOUS progress in 2019. This is all theoretical as I expect them to do just that. Just can't totally agree with the OP that 2019 isn't something of a show me year.

Exactly. It doesn’t have to be SB or bust but it is 9-10 wins and competitivness or bust. 

[Shaw66]

19 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I think a lot of people on this board are getting too far over their skis with their expectations for the Bills this season.  I think we can be in the mix for a Wild Card at the end of the season but we are not going to be making a playoff run this year.  McBeane knows that.  McBeane is still working on setting the table this year.  He is not building a roster in this year's free agency and draft to win in 2019, he is looking at least one more year down the road.

 

That's why I'd be surprised if McBeane goes TE shopping in free agency this year.  This is one of the deepest TE drafts ever and we have boatloads of picks.  Why burn a big chunk of cash on a middle of the road free agent TE when you can get a good one on a rookie contract and let him develop on a team friendly deal for the next four years?  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bills grab two TEs in the draft this year with Clay being released.  I do hope he goes after O-linemen aggressively in free agency this year.  Talented "Hog Mollies" are really hard to find and need some time playing together to really gel and become a solid unit. 

 

Realistically, years 3/4/5 of Josh Allen's rookie contract are when we will have a team ready to start making deep playoff runs.  That is not this season.  If Allen continues to develop this year he will be ready to roll and we should have a roster built of young and talented 2nd , 3rd , and 4th year players with a few key veterans on each side of the ball ready to take that step along with Allen.  

 

I think Beane and McDermott feel like Terry and Kim have their backs and will give them the time they need to  build a roster the right way for long term success.  I'm a long suffering Bills fan just like everyone else here but I'm willing to wait one more year if it will help create a team capable of sustained excellence like in the Kelly Era.  I think that is the type of roster McBeane is trying to build. 

 

I think McBeane's offseason moves this year are designed to bear fruit in two or three years when the Bills are in their playoff window, not this year.  I think McBeane is looking at this year's free agency  and draft with a different timeline in mind compared to many here and it will color every decision McBeane makes.

 

 

I think you are largely correct, but this is a hot seat year for McBeane.  They need to show real progress this year or there are serious questions about whether their process is working.  Progress is 8, 9 or 10 wins. 7 wins, maybe.  Six wins, and the Pegulas are legitimately asking "what's going on here?"

[BillsSB2020]

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think you are largely correct, but this is a hot seat year for McBeane.  They need to show real progress this year or there are serious questions about whether their process is working.  Progress is 8, 9 or 10 wins. 7 wins, maybe.  Six wins, and the Pegulas are legitimately asking "what's going on here?"

This is completely fair analysis. I'm smack dab in the middle of the McDermott/Beane haters and those that expect minimal progress in 2019. I don't think it's unfair to expect a strong season in McDermott's third full year/Beane's second. I understand that they wiped the slate, but they've got the QB, they've got the cap space, and they've got the draft picks. Nobody in their right mind is going to hold them to a ridiculous 12 win standard, but I will be discouraged if they're not in CONTENTION for a playoff spot. At this point, I'm cautiously optimistic.

Edited February 17, 2019 by BillsSB2020

[Shaw66]

40 minutes ago, BillsSB2020 said:

This is completely fair analysis. I'm smack dab in the middle of the McDermott/Beane haters and those that expect minimal progress in 2019. I don't think it's unfair to expect a strong season in McDermott's third full year/Beane's second. I understand that they wiped the slate, but they've got the QB, they've got the cap space, and they've got the draft picks. Nobody in their right mind is going to hold them to a ridiculous 12 win standard, but I will be discouraged if they're not in CONTENTION for a playoff spot. At this point, I'm cautiously optimistic.

And they've got a locker room core of guys who buy into the process.  Their system is place.  Last season was the first season where players made progress doing what McDermott wants them to do.  They know now what they're supposed to do, and this year they will build on that.   And they will teach the newcomers.   Last season was the foundation, now they are building.  If McDermott knows what he's doing, there should be no more tearing down, just building and building.  

 

So they should get better in 2019.  Then the process is to keep teaching and learning, and, along the way, keep upgrading the talent.  

[Dave Allen]

19 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yours will be a popular take with those who wanted to summarily dismiss mistakes in year 1 and 2 as "all part of the original plan to get to that year 3 with $80M in cap room".

 

The model for teams and their young QB's is to start contending in year 2.

 

And Allen has a jump because he is getting his second year in year 3 of the regime!

 

Pulling it off is another matter...........and in that regard.........after doing VERY poorly in free agency last offseason they certainly are going to need to play catch up this offseason.

 

It can be done though...........a losing team one season can compete for a title the next season.........the Eagles and Rams have proven it very recently..........and the Bills have done pretty well in the past 2 drafts so the cupboard isn't bare.

 

I wouldn't summarily write them off just yet..........nor should we just anticipate another season of mediocrity as part of a plan.

 

 

A second-year quarterback getting to the playoffs isn't the 'model' just because a couple of teams have done it. 

 

Beane is building a perennial contender. He's not going to sacrifice long-term success for a wild-card one-out, or throw all of his cards in on the 'get to the playoffs on the rookie deal' myth.

 

I expect a good draft class, a lot of FA depth and maybe one or two quality FA starters. If it comes together for a playoff run, great. I'm okay if it doesn't as long as the arrow keeps pointing up.

[BillsSB2020]

58 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

And they've got a locker room core of guys who buy into the process.  Their system is place.  Last season was the first season where players made progress doing what McDermott wants them to do.  They know now what they're supposed to do, and this year they will build on that.   And they will teach the newcomers.   Last season was the foundation, now they are building.  If McDermott knows what he's doing, there should be no more tearing down, just building and building.  

 

So they should get better in 2019.  Then the process is to keep teaching and learning, and, along the way, keep upgrading the talent.  

And as you stated, there's only so much McDermott can do if the talent isn't upgraded. They have the resources. This is the year I expect them to take a step forward. It may take some time for them to come together as a team as I expect many new players, but I just don't think of 2019 as a rebuilding year. It's a BUILDING year. That doesn't mean SB, but it means progress.

[aristocrat]

The moves are for the next 15 years 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, BillsSB2020 said:

And as you stated, there's only so much McDermott can do if the talent isn't upgraded. They have the resources. This is the year I expect them to take a step forward. It may take some time for them to come together as a team as I expect many new players, but I just don't think of 2019 as a rebuilding year. It's a BUILDING year. That doesn't mean SB, but it means progress.

That's how I see it.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Dave Allen said:

A second-year quarterback getting to the playoffs isn't the 'model' just because a couple of teams have done it. 

 

Beane is building a perennial contender. He's not going to sacrifice long-term success for a wild-card one-out, or throw all of his cards in on the 'get to the playoffs on the rookie deal' myth.

 

I expect a good draft class, a lot of FA depth and maybe one or two quality FA starters. If it comes together for a playoff run, great. I'm okay if it doesn't as long as the arrow keeps pointing up.

 

 

A couple teams???

 

Brady........SB champ second season

 

Roethlisberger........SB champ second season

 

Russell Wilson........SB champ second season

 

Andrew Luck.......AFC championship game second season

 

Carson Wentz..........lead team to #1 seed......team won SB second season

Goff........team was #3 seed in NFC in second season

 

Patrick Mahomes.........#1 seed AFC second season

Deshaun Watson.........playoffs second season

Mitch Trubisky...........NFC north champs, playoffs in second season

 

 

Man........this board is turning into a bunch of excuse makin',  expectation hatin' MOM's..........I think SDS need to get Nugenix into the banner ad loop!

[Green Lightning]

14 hours ago, matter2003 said:

 

He didn't inherit the dead cap space he created it of his own doing by dumping guys like Watkins and Dareus etc...

 

 

Who are both pant loads and needed to go.

[ComradeKayAdams]

Injuries aside, the expectation should be for making one of the wildcard spots in 2019. And if they don't make the playoffs in either 2019 or 2020, then Beane and McDermott should be fired.

 

 

[Chicken Boo]

Season 3 needs to bear fruit.  Another 5-11 6-10 season and these boys will be on the hot seat.

[Elite Poster]

So we plan on winning anytime this eon?

[mannc]

7 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think you are largely correct, but this is a hot seat year for McBeane.  They need to show real progress this year or there are serious questions about whether their process is working.  Progress is 8, 9 or 10 wins. 7 wins, maybe.  Six wins, and the Pegulas are legitimately asking "what's going on here?"

7-9, with two more deer-in-headlights losses to Belichick, should result in Sean in the unemployment line.  This is not a four-year-rebuild league, especially when you’re “rebuilding” from two .500 seasons.

Edited February 17, 2019 by mannc

[Aussie Joe]

On the contrary, they will survive another year if they get 7-9..

 

I actually expect them to do better.,

[mannc]

1 hour ago, Aussie Joe said:

On the contrary, they will survive another year if they get 7-9..

 

You can’t possibly know that.  At best, it would depend on the circumstances, and how they got to 7-9.

[Aussie Joe]

54 minutes ago, mannc said:

You can’t possibly know that.  At best, it would depend on the circumstances, and how they got to 7-9.

 

No ... I don’t know it.. just giving an opinion..

 

I think it’s an educated prediction to think they get another two seasons unless the wheels completely fall off in 2019 and they only win a couple of games..

[JaCrispy]

20 hours ago, RochesterRob said:

  I'm thinking 9-10 wins for the season is very possible and the playoffs are 60/40 against making it.  I think that the division winners will be NE, Pittsburgh, Indy, and the Chiefs.  Chargers and Browns (that's right, the Browns) for the Wild Card.  Buffalo, Houston, and one other team just missing in the last 2 weeks.  Pittsburgh pulls another rabbit out of their hat winning the division despite the offseason drama preceding camp.

I think the Browns will win the north division.

[JaCrispy]

17 hours ago, Rockinon said:

I guess we should just stay home and not even bother to watch them this year then. This is in response to the OP.  Didn't even bother to read the rest of this thread.

I watched last season, knowing they were going to be a poor...because there is an excitement about watching the development of the young players, even if you know the team won’t have success.  

 

Your post is so over the top, it loses all credibility, by not having anything to do with with what the OP was saying, imo.

[mannc]

5 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

No ... I don’t know it.. just giving an opinion..

 

I think it’s an educated prediction to think they get another two seasons unless the wheels completely fall off in 2019 and they only win a couple of games..

Then you should not state it as a fact.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

17 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think you are largely correct, but this is a hot seat year for McBeane.  They need to show real progress this year or there are serious questions about whether their process is working.  Progress is 8, 9 or 10 wins. 7 wins, maybe.  Six wins, and the Pegulas are legitimately asking "what's going on here?"

7 wins is progress? 8 wins is progress? 

 

Geez, this fan base never changes. 

 

We were saying the same things when Dick Jauron was here. 

 

There will never be any real expectations in Buffalo. 

[Shaw66]

10 hours ago, mannc said:

7-9, with two more deer-in-headlights losses to Belichick, should result in Sean in the unemployment line.  This is not a four-year-rebuild league, especially when you’re “rebuilding” from two .500 seasons.

Their record won't determine their future so much as the progress the team makes.   They have established all kinds of metrics for the team, and at the end of the season they measure the performance against the goals in all those areas.  They have, without question, sold the Pegulas on that system.   So long as they can show reasonable progress on their goals, reasonable movement forward, they'll get another year even if they're 7-9.  

 

There's pretty much no difference between teams that go 9-7 and teams that go 7-9.   A bad call here or there, bad bounce, one or two mistakes, that's all it takes for a two-game swing.  Over the long term, improvement in all the areas they measure should result in an improved record, but it's quite easy for them to get the improvement they want and still go 7-9.   6-10 is the problem for McBeane, I think.  It's pretty hard to show you're getting improvement in the areas you want and still not winning much.