We need to trade down...

[bills6969]

This is a pretty weak draft a the top.  Bosa is good but he's a lock for #1.  Really think we should trade down and add an additional 2nd or 3rd.  Lots of talent (Simmons, Wilkins, Metcalf, Cajuste, Burns) will be available at the end of the 1st round any way.

[zevo]

You can want all you want...but it takes two to tango....if it’s a weak draft at the top why would a team give up picks to move up.....

[formerlyofCtown]

5 minutes ago, bills6969 said:

This is a pretty weak draft a the top.  Bosa is good but he's a lock for #1.  Really think we should trade down and add an additional 2nd or 3rd.  Lots of talent (Simmons, Wilkins, Metcalf, Cajuste, Burns) will be available at the end of the 1st round any way.

Im not trading down unless I get a 1st this year of coarse, a second this year, and a first next year unless its only a couple of spots.  But if its any further than 11th or 12th see above.

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

Just now, zevo said:

You can want all you want...but it takes two to tango....if it’s a weak draft at the top why would a team give up picks to move up.....

To draft a QB ahead of Denver.  Likely partners could be Miami, Cinci, Washington and Tenn.

Steelers,  NE and LA will need to draft one soon also. If they really like someone in this class, they may also bite. 

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Agree with the OP and Zevo.  The 3rd guy in this draft probably is as good as the 20th.  QB class is absolute garbage.  Sadly it will be near impossible to find a trade down partner.

[NewEra]

4 minutes ago, BillsRdue said:

To draft a QB ahead of Denver.  Likely partners could be Miami, Cinci, Washington and Tenn.

Steelers,  NE and LA will need to draft one soon also. If they really like someone in this class, they may also bite. 

 

Those teams are going to be looking to get ahead of the Giants and Jags.  I doubt they’ll be looking for trade for this year’s version of JP or Ej.

[DBilz2500]

1 minute ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Agree with the OP and Zevo.  The 3rd guy in this draft probably is as good as the 20th.  QB class is absolute garbage.  Sadly it will be near impossible to find a trade down partner.

Haskins is actually a pretty good prospect and Lock shows a lot of potential. Not an all time class by any stretch but not absolute garbage. 2013 Manuel draft class was absolute garbage. 

[Pete]

Trade down, and trade down again- unless Ed Oliver is still available.  Otherwise load up on 2nd and 3rd round picks, and future picks

[RememberTheRockpile]

How many rookies can you have on a roster before the inexperience is detrimental to the team? This is a question I have when I see people advocating trading down for more picks. 

[Codyny13]

Just now, RememberTheRockpile said:

How many rookies can you have on a roster before the inexperience is detrimental to the team? This is a question I have when I see people advocating trading down for more picks. 

The back end of your 90 man roster is typically made up of 7-10 college free agents. Wouldn’t you rather blue chip first, second or third round players competing for those roster spots? Not saying we’ll be able to trade down but those high round picks are gold if you pick right.

[Augie]

46 minutes ago, RememberTheRockpile said:

How many rookies can you have on a roster before the inexperience is detrimental to the team? This is a question I have when I see people advocating trading down for more picks. 

 

I’ll never see talented young players as a negative. The late round picks are probably used as fodder to move up in earlier rounds, or long shots to make it. Hard to believe, but we WERE one of the older teams in the league. We were just less talented. We need to get younger (and cheaper), and I understand that has some growing pains associated with it. 

Edited January 4, 2019 by Augie

[ProcessAccepted]

36 minutes ago, bills6969 said:

This is a pretty weak draft a the top.  Bosa is good but he's a lock for #1.  Really think we should trade down and add an additional 2nd or 3rd.  Lots of talent (Simmons, Wilkins, Metcalf, Cajuste, Burns) will be available at the end of the 1st round any way.

 

Hold your horses skippy. Lets just see who's available on draft day and what people are offering for the #9 pick before making such decisions

[Boatdrinks]

Way too early to make a determination one way or another. See what happens in FA, check out the combine etc. A trade down might be made, but as it’s been pointed out it requires a trade partner.  Most teams consider all their options thoroughly, so why worry ?

[RememberTheRockpile]

8 minutes ago, Codyny13 said:

The back end of your 90 man roster is typically made up of 7-10 college free agents. Wouldn’t you rather blue chip first, second or third round players competing for those roster spots? Not saying we’ll be able to trade down but those high round picks are gold if you pick right.

This is what the Bills get this year:

1st - 1
2nd - 1
3rd - 1
4th - 2
5th - 2
6th - 1
7th - 2

 

Likely the first 4 rounds picks all make the team. Assume one from the 5th and one more from the 6th and 7th. That is 7 rookies or 13% of the 53 man roster. Imagine trading down in the first for a 1st and a 3rd. Throw in a undrafted rookie and your up to 9 or 17% of your roster. At some point, and I don't know what that point is, the inexperience becomes a liability especially early in the season. IMO, they would be much better served if they traded down and got future draft picks. For example instead of a 1st and a 3rd a 1st and next years 3rd.

[Big Turk]

Gotta have someone willing to trade up and someone willing to give us enough to do so.

[Codyny13]

4 minutes ago, RememberTheRockpile said:

This is what the Bills get this year:

1st - 1
2nd - 1
3rd - 1
4th - 2
5th - 2
6th - 1
7th - 2

 

Likely the first 4 rounds picks all make the team. Assume one from the 5th and one more from the 6th and 7th. That is 7 rookies or 13% of the 53 man roster. Imagine trading down in the first for a 1st and a 3rd. Throw in a undrafted rookie and your up to 9 or 17% of your roster. At some point, and I don't know what that point is, the inexperience becomes a liability especially early in the season. IMO, they would be much better served if they traded down and got future draft picks. For example instead of a 1st and a 3rd a 1st and next years 3rd.

I get what you’re saying about experience but I want as much top talent on that roster as I can get. If those young players beat out veterans for a job, so be it. McBeane made the point of having one solid veteran in each position group, I think they’ll have that.

[billsfan89]

58 minutes ago, zevo said:

You can want all you want...but it takes two to tango....if it’s a weak draft at the top why would a team give up picks to move up.....

 

Yup and if an elite talent falls there has to be a reason why you wouldn't want to just draft that player instead? If there are QB's and you have a QB that tends to be the most likely reason to get a haul for a trade down. There are Julio Jones situations and the Bills even benefited from the Tavon Austin trade considerably. But rarely do teams make massive trade ups for non-QB players. So unless the Bills at pick 9 get extremely lucky with a team coveting a player more than the Bills I don't see a trade down as likely. 

[whatdrought]

Herbert staying in school hurt our chances at that. It’s essentially Haskins and Lock with that Duke kid as a maybe. 

[GreggTX]

1 hour ago, RememberTheRockpile said:

How many rookies can you have on a roster before the inexperience is detrimental to the team? This is a question I have when I see people advocating trading down for more picks. 

 

You also need to consider the positions. Inexperience at RB is a non-issue, for example. OL experience could make a difference or at WR. Trading down and picking up another 2nd or 3rd might allow us to get one of the top interior OL in the draft. for example. I don't know who's who, but they generally get picked later than the OT's.

[Augie]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

Those teams are going to be looking to get ahead of the Giants and Jags.  I doubt they’ll be looking for trade for this year’s version of JP or Ej.

 

The Giants should be looking for their own QB. RB is nice, QB a MUST! 

[Albany,n.y.]

Trading down means you know you're giving up a known quantity  (best player) on your board for who knows what.  The only time to trade down is if it's 1 spot and you know the team you're trading with doesn't want your best player available.  

We traded UP twice last year in the 1st round because we wanted quality over quantity.  If you trust your board, you don't trade down.  If you feel the draft is a crapshoot then you belong here and not in an NFL front office.  If I was running a team and someone in scouting said trade down because we're guessing-which is the main philosophy of the trade down crowd here-he'd be hanging out in a bar with Crossman, Robiskie and Castillo updating his resume. 

[RememberTheRockpile]

8 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

 

You also need to consider the positions. Inexperience at RB is a non-issue, for example. OL experience could make a difference or at WR. Trading down and picking up another 2nd or 3rd might allow us to get one of the top interior OL in the draft. for example. I don't know who's who, but they generally get picked later than the OT's.

Pretty much agree except for RB. While not an issue as far as running the ball is concerned. Knowing when to stay and block or go out as a safety valve. Knowing who to block and knowing where to be on a blitz is pretty important and undervalued. That all comes with experience and coaching. 

[Aussie Joe]

Beane might just surprise us and trade up...

 

This crew swings for the fences..

[Mark Vader]

1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

Gotta have someone willing to trade up and someone willing to give us enough to do so.

If the Bills choose to trade down, then they should trade their first round pick(#9) to the Raiders for their two late first round picks #25 & #27.

 

The Raiders need all the help they can get.

 

Does anyone know, by using the draft points value that this would be a fair trade?

[Pete]

3 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

If the Bills choose to trade down, then they should trade their first round pick(#9) to the Raiders for their two late first round picks #25 & #27.

 

The Raiders need all the help they can get.

 

Does anyone know, by using the draft points value that this would be a fair trade?

#9 1350

#25 720

#28 660

1350-1380 fair trade.  Make that deal if Raiders offer

[Mark Vader]

4 minutes ago, Pete said:

#9 1350

#25 720

#28 660

1350-1380 fair trade.  Make that deal if Raiders offer

Thank you, although it's pick 27 not 28. Either way, it should still be a fair trade.

 

I'm fine with staying put and picking the best player available at 9, but if we could make this trade with the Raiders, I say do it.

[Big Turk]

8 minutes ago, Pete said:

#9 1350

#25 720

#28 660

1350-1380 fair trade.  Make that deal if Raiders offer

That chart is old and very outdated in terms of proper values for picks...there are much better charts out there based on analytics and studies rather than someone's random assignment of values.

Edited January 4, 2019 by matter2003

[Pete]

1 minute ago, matter2003 said:

That chart is old and very outdated in terms of proper values for picks...there are much better charts out there based on analytics and studies rather than someone's random assignment of values.

such as?

[BakersBills]

59 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

If the Bills choose to trade down, then they should trade their first round pick(#9) to the Raiders for their two late first round picks #25 & #27.

 

The Raiders need all the help they can get.

 

Does anyone know, by using the draft points value that this would be a fair trade?

that would be a horrible trade for the bills, value is not close.

 

the colts got like 3 2nds for moving down a few spots, we gave tampa a high 2nd for a few spots.

 

9 to 25 is worth 3 or 4 late firsts

[Mark Vader]

8 minutes ago, BakersBills said:

that would be a horrible trade for the bills, value is not close.

 

the colts got like 3 2nds for moving down a few spots, we gave tampa a high 2nd for a few spots.

 

9 to 25 is worth 3 or 4 late firsts

That's why I say trade for 25 & 27.

[BakersBills]

59 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

That's why I say trade for 25 & 27.

 

Those two picks aren’t enough, look at last years trades.

 

you can throw that chart out.

 

9 for 25, 27, and there 2nd and a 3rd in 2020 is more like it.

 

i think best scenario you trade down to the teens and pick up a late first or 2 and a 3.

 

And then you take best pass rusher or wr on the board imo. 

[NewEra]

3 hours ago, Augie said:

 

The Giants should be looking for their own QB. RB is nice, QB a MUST! 

That’s what I mean.  I doubt any teams are going to be trading up for the 2nd and 3rd QBs in this draft.  Never know how it shakes out, but I don’t see any team trading into the top 10 for Drew Locke.  

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, DBilz2500 said:

Haskins is actually a pretty good prospect and Lock shows a lot of potential. Not an all time class by any stretch but not absolute garbage. 2013 Manuel draft class was absolute garbage. 

 

I don't think it is a million miles off the 2013 class to be honest. Haskins is the best QB in the class but he is not a good prospect in comparison to the last 3 classes that have come out though he would have been the clear #1 in 2013.... and the rest.... they all have major holes in the way the 2013 class did. Doesn't mean that the 2019 guys won't outperform the 2013 guys in the league (wouldn't be hard) but as prospects they have similar question marks.

 

As for trading down.... I don't see the Bills going far.... but both the Redskins at #15 (Quarterback), and the Panthers at #16 (Edge Rusher) have major needs for players at a premium position and teams between the Bills and them who are likely in the same market. They are the two possible trade partners to keep an eye on in my opinion.

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, Mark Vader said:

Thank you, although it's pick 27 not 28. Either way, it should still be a fair trade.

 

I'm fine with staying put and picking the best player available at 9, but if we could make this trade with the Raiders, I say do it.

 

We don't know what the Raiders picks will be. Depends on how the playoffs go.

[bmur66]

6 hours ago, RememberTheRockpile said:

How many rookies can you have on a roster before the inexperience is detrimental to the team? This is a question I have when I see people advocating trading down for more picks. 

I have heard it said that every rookie you start will cost you one game

[Mark80]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

That’s what I mean.  I doubt any teams are going to be trading up for the 2nd and 3rd QBs in this draft.  Never know how it shakes out, but I don’t see any team trading into the top 10 for Drew Locke.  

 

I watched Lock numerous times this year.  He is, quite simply, not good.  I have a feeling he's not even going to be a first rounder.  I just can't see where all the hype on this kid is coming from.  Teams are going to see through the mirage when they start looking closely.

[PatsFanNH]

7 hours ago, zevo said:

You can want all you want...but it takes two to tango....if it’s a weak draft at the top why would a team give up picks to move up.....

It’s weak on Offense but super deep on D line and defense.. also very few good QB coming out this year. A team could offer the Bills a lot IF they feel they need Jump another team for a QB

[Rc2catch]

It should be interesting. Bills are in a nice spot. 

Issue I see is, if there is a quarterback one of these needy teams HAS TO HAVE they are probably looking to jump higher than 9 to get their guy. I get we are in a spot just ahead of the hungriest qb teams but even still I expect the most aggressive team to push for 3-5 to get their guy 

[billsredneck1]

7 hours ago, BillsRdue said:

To draft a QB ahead of Denver.  Likely partners could be Miami, Cinci, Washington and Tenn.

Steelers,  NE and LA will need to draft one soon also. If they really like someone in this class, they may also bite. 

 

steelers will not miss a beat once rudolph takes over.  now's a great time to top off their receiving corp and fortify their lines. when rudolph takes over they will still have a great passing game. imo,  the best qb of the 2018 draft can't be crowned until he plays a full year.  i actually wouldn't be surprised to see ben retire.

[billsredneck1]

7 hours ago, Codyny13 said:

The back end of your 90 man roster is typically made up of 7-10 college free agents. Wouldn’t you rather blue chip first, second or third round players competing for those roster spots? Not saying we’ll be able to trade down but those high round picks are gold if you pick right.

i agree.  if they package or pair the 2 5's and two 7's to get a couple of 4 th rounders...and trade down picking up an extra 2nd and/or 3rd, that gives us 8 picks in the first 4 rounds?

.....not to mention 4 4ths to move up as well. 

 

i'm kinda hoping that josh allen falls to 9.  with lorax being here one more year to mentor, we could have one vicious defense.  if they go heavy on the oline in fa,  they can find a good wr in the 2nd and go bpa the rest of the way.  gonna be a great offseason.  it just sucks that free agency doesn't start til march.