Josh Allen's progress

[transplantbillsfan]

40 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

 

 

EDIT: I'm responding to that Rodak tweet about Allen's adjusted completion %... don't know why it's not showing up as I quote you.

 

All sorts of other funny things come into play with this stat, though.

 

Each website offers its own subjective view of these passes.

 

Was last week's final pass to Clay a drop or an inaccurate pass counting against Allen's adjusted completion % for ESPN?  I'd be curious.

 

Also, there are other passes that I think are accurate passes, but aren't drops, either.  I'm thinking of a pass (I think it was to Zay in the End Zone) that was thrown by Allen on a designed play where Jones was clearly supposed to go to the sideline.  Allen threw it up to a spot where only Jones could catch it with the opportunity to keep his feet in bounds.  Zay couldn't keep his feet in bounds, despite catching the football.  I can't remember when that pass happened, but the broadcast replayed it multiple times.

 

How do these types of stats account for passes like that?

 

I mean, it's obviously not a catch, so it's an incomplete pass, but is a WR who catches the ball, but can't keep his feet in bounds even though he probably should have somehow less of an indictment than a drop?  Shouldn't it be counted in the same way as a drop is?

 

Regardless, so this "adjusted completion %" moves Allen up 12% as a passer?  That's a pretty signifcant bump.

Edited December 10, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

9 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

It usually doesn't take a full season for Defensive Coordinators to adjust.

 

Tyrod Taylor had plenty of bad games with us in that first year. 

He never really got better.  He never really got worse.  He was just up-and-down, depending on how effective defenses were at keeping him in the pocket.

 

One strategy I saw the Jets using yesterday (mostly in the second half) was using a spy, but then sending him on a delayed blitz.  It seemed that Allen was less willing to take off with defenders running at him, as opposed to standing flat-footed a few yards away.  It will be interesting to see if the Lions employ a similar tactic.

 

No doubt, Allen will eventually need to be able to beat teams with his arm. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I wouldn’t know first hand obviously but I have heard it mentioned that once your in season it’s harder for coordinators to make large adjustments within that week because it’s like a machine.  You play then you review then on to next opponent.  It’s only in the off season when you have a better opportunity to truely see all your competition in a better light when your not worried about record or injuries and the like.

[mjt328]

1 minute ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

I wouldn’t know first hand obviously but I have heard it mentioned that once your in season it’s harder for coordinators to make large adjustments within that week because it’s like a machine.  You play then you review then on to next opponent.  It’s only in the off season when you have a better opportunity to truely see all your competition in a better light when your not worried about record or injuries and the like.

 

Large schematic changes are difficult to make from week-to-week.

Small strategic adjustments aren't hard (at least they shouldn't be for a decent coaching staff).

 

The best way to defend Tyrod was to have the edge defenders play contain (instead of going with a full pass rush).  This forced Tyrod to stay in the pocket and throw, instead of moving around where he was most comfortable.  

 

Don't get me wrong.  Teams will adjust to Allen's current play, and I wouldn't expect 100-yard rushing games to become the weekly norm.  Quarterbacks cannot have consistent/long-term success in this league without being able to pass.  That's why I'm putting Allen's rushing performance to the side, and trying to judge his progress on the passing side alone.  I think it's pretty clear to see the improvements he's made in that area since earlier in the season.

 

[Success]

I see EJ’s name here and there on this thread.  He’s really nothing like EJ - who, as I recall, had “zip code” accuracy.  

 

He’s really not like that- all over the field, missing guys left and right.  Some of his throws are things of beauty - delivered to the only spot receivers can make a catch.  His biggest issue is throwing it too hard, but it’s not like he hasn’t put touch on some balls.

 

He has a few overthrows each game - as every QB does.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

 

 

I would be curious to know where his adjusted completion percentage ranks since coming back from injury. Cumulative season stats for a rookie QB don't mean anything to me. I want to know where he's at now.

[CincyBillsFan]

2 hours ago, PittsforDave said:

Allen reminds me of EJ Manuel. He has one good drive then goes into a lull. We need a complete game from our qb. 

 

Three of Allen's first four drives were "good" and resulted in 17 points.  Had Clay held on to the ball on the play BEFORE Allen lost the fumble and we might be talking about Allen having FOUR straight good drives to start the game.

 

Allen also had an excellent drive to close out the 1st half keeping the ball away from the Jets after the Bills were pinned deep in their own territory and giving them a chance to go into the locker room with 3 more points.  It's not Allen's fault that a 49 yard FG attempt was blocked.

 

Allen also had an excellent drive to put the Bills up 23 - 20 with 2 minutes left in the game.  So by my count credit Allen with 5 good drives. 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[CincyBillsFan]

Very superficial review IMO.  I don't get these guys dwelling on ONE PLAY.  It was a bad INT we get it - I bet Allen does to.  You know what, if he makes that throw 2 - 3 times a SEASON I can live with it as long as he makes a whole lot of big plays along the way.  

 

Last night I watched two of the better NFL QB's make some bad throws.  Together these guys threw SIX INTERCEPTIONS - everyone of which looked to be a very bad throw.  A fair and instructive review of Allen's passing game yesterday would obviously talk about the stupid INT he threw.  But it would also showcase that wonderful throw from the pocket out of the end zone to convert a 3rd & 13.  Allen showed nice understanding of the defense by using a fake throw to draw the safety away and then deliver an absolute laser strike to convert a HUGE 3rd down. 

 

I'm fine with these guys talking to me about Allen's inconsistency - that's a fair topic and provides us with a better understanding of where Allen is and isn't progressing.  But to obsess over A SINGLE BAD THROW which did not result in points for the Jets or deprive the Bills of points (it was a 1st & 25 play) is a sign of a couple of guys who want to prove that Allen is not very good. 

 

I think it simply comes down to the fact that Allen rose real fast in last years draft and very few of these so called "experts" called it out that he would be a top 10 pick.  Then in spite of their histrionic protestations that no one should waste a 1st round pick on him the Bills went and did just that.  It's like these guys were insulted that the Bills didn't listen them.

 

IMO, so far so good with Allen.  He has slightly exceeded my expectations and I had fairly high ones.  He still has a lot to work on and we won't know for another couple of years whether he's the "guy".  I'm fully aware of his current shortcomings but don't think that any of them are critical or things that he can't overcome.  Whether he does will only be seen in the test of time.  But I'm also a Bills fan and I want Allen to succeed badly.  Why? Because if he doesn't we are back to the starting point in landing a franchise QB.  That means we just lost 3 - 4 years and guaranteed that there will be no playoff runs while looking forward to a succession of mediocre wannabe QB's.  Why would any rational Buffalo Bills fan want that?

 

 

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

How often do you see WRs from other NFL teams dropping passes like this?

 

and we see multiple routine passes like that dropped in every single game!!!

 

I thought a light went on for Zay, but that game and that drop in particular was just a big step back for him.  He'll probably be our slot WR next year behind Foster (?) and someone we draft or get in Free Agency.

[John from Riverside]

3 hours ago, Steptide said:

Why is daboll not letting Allen throw 40 times a game? The bills were not making the playoffs this year. There were drives yesterday where the bills ran on 1st and 2nd down. WHY?! We know what we have in ivory and Mccoy. Let allen throw all day and let this o line learn how to pass protect. Why are they trying to force the run? 

Because if he stands behind this offensive line he is going to get killed

[26CornerBlitz]

Josh Allen Week 14 Passing Chart

 

[Teddy KGB]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Slightly worrisome he had a knack for attempting that incredibly dumb pass across his body to the other side of the field to a guys who not even close to being open.

 

 

 

It’s scary when QBs take chances.   

 

^^^ misses the TT don’t pass/don’t score days 

[Nextmanup]

The chart shows that 61% of his completions on the day were within 7 yards of the line of scrimmage.

 

 

[Augie]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Slightly worrisome he had a knack for attempting that incredibly dumb pass across his body to the other side of the field to a guys who not even close to being open.

 

 

 

Does the very recent Russell Wilson brain fart help put it in perspective? 

 

Assuming we continue to see “progress”, it will NOT be a straight line pointing upward. There WILL be bumps in the road. We all know that. How it turns out? We may have opinions, but nobody KNOWS the answer. 

 

 

. 

Edited December 11, 2018 by Augie

[gobills1212]

6 hours ago, Steptide said:

Why is daboll not letting Allen throw 40 times a game? The bills were not making the playoffs this year. There were drives yesterday where the bills ran on 1st and 2nd down. WHY?! We know what we have in ivory and Mccoy. Let allen throw all day and let this o line learn how to pass protect. Why are they trying to force the run? 

Human instinct. 

Run...or die

[26CornerBlitz]

6 hours ago, Steptide said:

Why is daboll not letting Allen throw 40 times a game? The bills were not making the playoffs this year. There were drives yesterday where the bills ran on 1st and 2nd down. WHY?! We know what we have in ivory and Mccoy. Let allen throw all day and let this o line learn how to pass protect. Why are they trying to force the run? 

 

36 passing attempts not counting drop backs where Allen ran.  

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[TroutDog]

 

Hadnt seen this before so I thought I’d post it in one of the 367 Allen threads. Entering junior year at Wyoming. 

[blacklabel]

On 12/2/2018 at 5:07 PM, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

Allen’s success won’t START

until the running STOPS.

 

its fools good.

dont fall for it.

 

he gets the BOTD because he is a Rookie.

 

but his true success won’t START until the running STOPS.

 

This is 20 lbs of horsecrap stuffed in a 5 lb bag. Why would you force your QB to stop using one of his best skills? He knows he needs to throw from the pocket, he's shown he can do it and I think he'll keep getting better. But when those monster lanes open up in front of him and he can rip for 20, 30, 40 yards and safely slide down, he's not gonna get reamed out for that. I don't see any coaches telling him, "Josh no run!" "But I just picked up 42 yards." "JOSH NO RUN, RALPHIEWILSONSWAR SAID SO!"

 

It's dumb.

 

The big comparison on Allen is Cam Newton, who, in his rookie season ran for 706 yards and 14 TDs. 14. At this point in his career he has over 4700 rushing yards and 58 rushing touchdowns. His season rushing average is about 600 yards a year. He's got three Pro Bowls under his belt, an All-Pro selection, a league MVP and a Super Bowl appearance. He's refined his game a little bit, as any QB's first instinct is to find a guy downfield and throw. But sometimes those lanes are there and no one's around so there are yards to be taken, and since he has the wheels for it, he's gonna take it.

 

This whole archaic way of viewing the QB position as being successful if it's played ONLY from the pocket is garbage in this modern NFL. Yes, of course they have to win from the pocket but that doesn't mean they have to completely stop picking up yards with their legs, especially if they have the athleticism for it. That's like telling one of your receivers, "Hey, I know you're excellent at running a lot of sharp in-cutting routes but we want you running outside stuff now, ok?" 

[SCBills]

15 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

How often do you see WRs from other NFL teams dropping passes like this?

 

and we see multiple routine passes like that dropped in every single game!!!

 

I thought a light went on for Zay, but that game and that drop in particular was just a big step back for him.  He'll probably be our slot WR next year behind Foster (?) and someone we draft or get in Free Agency.

 

I can't even watch this without getting way more annoyed than I should about a football game.   Every week we see this garbage.  Then every week we have to hear a small group of people go on and on about his completion percentage. 

 

Never mind the fact our OL loves to put him behind the sticks with penalties, along with providing zero run game and minimal pass protection.

[WideNine]

18 hours ago, mjt328 said:

 

It usually doesn't take a full season for Defensive Coordinators to adjust.

 

Tyrod Taylor had plenty of bad games with us in that first year. 

He never really got better.  He never really got worse.  He was just up-and-down, depending on how effective defenses were at keeping him in the pocket.

 

One strategy I saw the Jets using yesterday (mostly in the second half) was using a spy, but then sending him on a delayed blitz.  It seemed that Allen was less willing to take off with defenders running at him, as opposed to standing flat-footed a few yards away.  It will be interesting to see if the Lions employ a similar tactic.

 

No doubt, Allen will eventually need to be able to beat teams with his arm. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Agree to disagree as Josh had 101 rushing yards against the Jets and they were more effective against him in the 2nd half because he got dinged and was hobbled.

 

I do think that NFL defenses are going to have to dedicate safeties and bigger corners that can tackle to the spy role, but he has proven to be able to make the first guy miss - a lot so there is a bit more to stopping his running than just spying on him.

 

I do feel that he has to be a more effective pocket passer, but I do not think that the alleged pocket is the safest place for Josh behind this o-line as of now.

 

Folks need to chillax a bit.

[dakrider]

19 hours ago, Ittakestime said:

Hasn't changed since his 1st season starting at Wyoming.

 

Literally broke his collar bone because he ran instead of throwing.

 

This is the QB he is.  He is not changing.  I personally think it won't work, but I could be proven wrong.  I just don't like running QBs.

 

Allen got hurt not just because he was running, but by trying to take on  a linebacker straight on instead of sliding down.  

Here's something some of you probably don't know - Josh Allen did not have a lot of rushing yards last year in college.  He had 2 games of about 60 yards rushing and a few games of around 30-40 yards rushing.  But he also had 4 games where he had 0 to negative yards rushing the ball.   He's running way more these last 3 games than he has ever before. 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[DuckyBoys]

16 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

How often do you see WRs from other NFL teams dropping passes like this?

 

and we see multiple routine passes like that dropped in every single game!!!

 

I thought a light went on for Zay, but that game and that drop in particular was just a big step back for him.  He'll probably be our slot WR next year behind Foster (?) and someone we draft or get in Free Agency.

6 drops on Sunday  plus all the penalties Team around him has to execute better He's a rookie and the team/play calling is making it as difficult as possible

[Mat68]

Funny, remember all the commercials and the hype surrounding Vick?  Allen has rushed for more yards in a 3 game stretch than Vick did for any stretch of his career.  Allen is the best athlete on the field when he plays.  I dont know why he isnt getting more attention.  Remember last year with Deshaun Watson?  Allen is getting 0 love.  Allen doesnt have the weapons Watson has or had.  The Bill's have a guy to build around.  He cleans up some small things Buffalo will be a darkhorse next year. 

[jrober38]

19 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Funny, remember all the commercials and the hype surrounding Vick?  Allen has rushed for more yards in a 3 game stretch than Vick did for any stretch of his career.  Allen is the best athlete on the field when he plays.  I dont know why he isnt getting more attention.  Remember last year with Deshaun Watson?  Allen is getting 0 love.  Allen doesnt have the weapons Watson has or had.  The Bill's have a guy to build around.  He cleans up some small things Buffalo will be a darkhorse next year. 

 

I'll lay it out:

 

The Bills aren't winning, his passing stats are the worst in the league among starting QBs, and he throws a TD once every 45.4 pass attempts. 

Edited December 11, 2018 by jrober38

[Mat68]

4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I'll lay it out:

 

The Bills aren't winning, his passing stats are the worst in the league among starting QBs, and he throws a TD once every 45.4 pass attempts. 

So after this year Gm Jrober is trading or cutting Allen and doing what?

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, Mat68 said:

So after this year Gm Jrober is trading or cutting Allen and doing what?

 

Keep him, sign two linemen, draft a blue chip WR, and see if he can get his QB Rating up at least 30 points. 

 

If he can't, I'm making alternate plans for 2020.

[Mat68]

29 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Keep him, sign two linemen, draft a blue chip WR, and see if he can get his QB Rating up at least 30 points. 

 

If he can't, I'm making alternate plans for 2020.

I agree with that assessment.  I think his ability he showed gives me promise that he can do that.  Similar to Geoff and Trubisky.  Buffalo will need an improvement to the run game to match those other offenses.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[John from Riverside]

34 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Keep him, sign two linemen, draft a blue chip WR, and see if he can get his QB Rating up at least 30 points. 

 

If he can't, I'm making alternate plans for 2020.

You might be.....the bills will not be.

 

You dont take a QB 7th overall and move on from him that fast

[jrober38]

3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

You might be.....the bills will not be.

 

You dont take a QB 7th overall and move on from him that fast

 

I'm assuming a bad season results in a new HC and GM. 

11 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

 

If this is true, it means all 15 drops by Bills receivers have been with Allen playing QB.

 

Is that possible? 

[billsfan5121]

24 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I'm assuming a bad season results in a new HC and GM. 

 

If this is true, it means all 15 drops by Bills receivers have been with Allen playing QB.

 

Is that possible? 

It really doesn’t sound right, but in a way I can see how Allen’s velocity and ball placement could cause issues, resulting in more drops.  I’m not talking about uncatchable passes, but those ones that are slightly off but would still constitute as a drop, whereas a Brees type of qb may have put it in the perfect spot 

Edited December 11, 2018 by billsfan5121

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[K-9]

23 hours ago, dakrider said:

 

Allen got hurt not just because he was running, but by trying to take on  a linebacker straight on instead of sliding down.  

Here's something some of you probably don't know - Josh Allen did not have a lot of rushing yards last year in college.  He had 2 games of about 60 yards rushing and a few games of around 30-40 yards rushing.  But he also had 4 games where he had 0 to negative yards rushing the ball.   He's running way more these last 3 games than he has ever before. 

The negative yardage from his last year in college is a reflection of how sacks are recorded as lost rushing yardage in college ball.

[WideNine]

20 hours ago, billsfan5121 said:

It really doesn’t sound right, but in a way I can see how Allen’s velocity and ball placement could cause issues, resulting in more drops.  I’m not talking about uncatchable passes, but those ones that are slightly off but would still constitute as a drop, whereas a Brees type of qb may have put it in the perfect spot 

 

Do the names Kelvin Benjamin or Charles Clay ring any bells when mentioned.

 

Factor those two pass-dropping machines and throw in an inconsistent Zay Jones (turning out to be pretty streaky - dropped passes all last year sans Allen throwing them, found his hands for a while, then took some steps backwards last game... jury is still out on Zay), and pretty hard to just pin it on Josh's strong arm.

 

I do think he will benefit from having receivers that can catch balls with some zip - just means that down the road he potentially could fit the ball into tighter windows.

 

 

Edited December 12, 2018 by WideNine

[26CornerBlitz]

From Andy Benoit:

 

JOSH ALLEN’S LEGS
They need to be a featured part of Buffalo’s offense. Allen has done a great job using his legs on scrambles against man coverage, where Buffalo’s increasingly vertical passing attack is lifting defenders and creating voids in the middle of the field. These last three weeks of 2018 must be spent incorporating Allen more into the foundational run game designs, like what the Panthers do with Cam Newton. The next question will be whether Allen can develop into a quality on-the-move thrower. If he can, Buffalo’s run-pass integration designs will be hard to handle in 2019 and beyond.

[26CornerBlitz]

It's great to hear this!

 

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[26CornerBlitz]