McBeane's Gambit

[Billsflyer12]

13 minutes ago, Clemfield2622 said:

 

i agree. especially when our team has been so god awful at drafting, you need as many chances as you can get.

 

i will ask again, who was the last late round/UDFA player who really developed into something for us?

 

 

Maybe a better question is who really developed on teams that actually consistently win. EIGHT Patriot starters just on the Offense alone were drafted rounds 4-7 or signed FA.

Edited September 10, 2018 by Billsflyer12

[Foreigner]

How can anyone in there right mind defend the product on the field Sunday. That is unbelievable.

 

Forget about  2019. We are talking about a GM and HC who have now put on the field Nathan(pic 6)

Peterman again who does not belong in the NFL. This management team wouldn't know talent when it hits them

in the face when they are escorted out the front door.  Stop with the excuses. It has to get a little better

because no nfl team can lose 16 games by 40-3 EVERY WEEK. If Baltimore didn't pull the plug on

Flacco and company early in the 3rd, it would have been 60 or 70 to 3.No excuses guys. These are players

the HC and GM put on the field Sunday. Stop with the excuses. You can't justify the result. This a results

business today and this year. Wake up.

[Shaw66]

OP is a nice assessment of what they did.   It probably was necessary, as it was unlikely they could win with Taylor, Dareus and Watkins as their core.  

 

They will be judged on how they used their draft picks - betting the ranch on a QB and MLB, instead of building a line and taking the QB who fell to them.  

 

I like it.   Allen and Edmunds haven't disappointed - they look like they can grow into real winners, and if they do, Beane will have filled the two most important decisions in one season.   

 

Next season he drafts and signs linemen and receivers, and the Bills may be in business. 

 

And 2018 isn't over yet.  

[Tcali]

nobody 60 or over is gonna see a bills championship at this pace. its always back to ground zero for the silly bills.

 

the good news is edmunds and tre and josh....and.....im thinking im thinking...the PUNTER!!..and the FG kicker(maybe the best in football)

[RochesterRob]

46 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

Here's the thing, with this draft this year McBeane had a once-in-what (20-year?) opportunity to build the core of their team.  '

 

They originally had 6 draft picks in the first three rounds, the 96th of which (last pick in the 3rd) on Phillips.  

 

That means that the other five picks, mid-1st to 3rd/65th (1st pick in the 3rd) that they used on Allen & Edmunds.  Edmunds could have been gotten with the 12th pick meaning that in essence Allen cost the organization the other four picks.  

 

Regardless of what thinks of Allen, or whether he does/doesn't work out, building a team in that way signifies a GM/HC that are novice/kid-in-a-candy-shop/OJT.  

 

They could have built the OL in order to build a foundation, for any QB.  Any.  Instead, they opted for the far riskier "their guy" option.  Well this just in, they could have Rodgers back there and he'd be operating at a fraction of what he's capable of due to the lack of a quality team around him.  Does McBeane really need to have this explained to them?  I don't know, maybe they do.  

 

It's not the method that I would have chosen and not a method from whence championship play/teams comes from.  But it's what they chose which IMO speaks volumes.  

 

Some are talking about 10 picks in next year's draft, but the team only has one pick each in rounds 1-3.  Teams aren't built oni 4th-7th rounders in that way.  The opportunity to have lain a foundation in spades was this Draft, and they opted not to.  

 

They aren't going to have 5 or 6 seasons to prove that they've OJT'd themselves into competence.  They're going to sink or swim now on Allen.  I'm not sure I'd want my future career hinging on a QB that has no OL, no WRs, a RB with one foot out-the-door, an overrated defense, and no reasonably possible way to build all of that within two more seasons given how they squandered their opportunity this year.  

 

Their "gambit" is Allen.  But only a fool would wager everything on a QB w/o really any of the core pieces in place otherwise in order to build a winning team.  

 

The on top of that, signing players like Lotolelei to enormous contract when not one metrics site had him rated as anything other than below-average, and why, because McBeane come from Carolina and they know better than everyone else?  

 

Fumigating the place from Whaley is necessary, but the moves they're making are hardly career-endorsing moves.  Like all GMs/HCs, they'll have three seasons to "prove themselves."  I have absolutely no idea how putting the pieces in place, particularly with the bar of a playoff "appearance" now being the backdrop, is even possible.  

 

The fans and media are already getting impatient as the buffoonery continues.  This isn't going to end well for them despite how well Allen turns out.  And frankly, it's fine that Allen's "their guy," but unless he turns out to be everything they claim he is, then given their other moves, they're not good coach & GM, because the rest of their moves collectively are below-average.  

  The fans would have been in open revolt over not taking a QB early if it did not happen.  I don't think that NFL front offices bend to the wishes of the fans to any degree of frequency but I do think that happened in this instance with Allen.  I myself would have preferred doing what you said with building the rest of the team for this past offseason and maybe that might have made a difference with someone like McCarron.  A guy who can't carry the team on his shoulders but with enough supporting cast can put out a reasonable performance week after week.

 

  Yes, your best chance of finding starters in the same year you draft them is in the first two rounds but players can be found that can develop in the lower rounds.  At the same time even though we had a number of picks in the first three rounds it is never a 100 percent success rate in terms of all picks hitting.  Most likely at least two of those post Glenn trade 6 picks in the first three rounds would have busted so I doubt the job would have been completed with this draft.

[corta765]

1 hour ago, donbb said:

Are we going to trust the regime that has signed FA duds such as Bodine, Star, Murphy, Davis, Gaines, Newhouse, and Kerley to spend all that FA money? That's a scary thought to me. 

 

In fairness he did sign last season Poyer, Hyde, DiMarco, & Hauschka for lower $ deals like this and they all had a good addition to the team. BUT you can't gamble that every $ signing that is budget consensus like the one's you listed above would work out also. Would the Bills really have been worse off with $10 million less in capspace but a better OL and WR or CB? Sometimes I think GM's get too fancy of themselves that everything they touch is gold. If you look at even the Darby trade who would be for sure our #2 CB we went from Darby to Gaines to Davis. We basically gained a draft pick and older CB who is worse then the two CBs we let go. Not the best asset mgmt and had they kept Darby perhaps the money on Davis is used on OL or WR. I get its all semantics, but their is validity into asking some tough questions at this GM especially right now.

[KD in CA]

34 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  The Bills have had a fair number of championship windows but Ralph was too tight with money to finish the building process.  The reason that Saban (the second time) and Knox got fed up and left.  The mid-1970's teams and the early 1980's teams could have been SB contenders with just a few more pieces added.  Ralph never quite got the hang of the salary cap era.

 

I meant the current/recent teams;  not ever.

 

It's the early '80s teams that get me.  They had all the pieces for a couple years.  

[C.Biscuit97]

Haha, they are going to milk this “trust the process” for years and some fans are just going to eat it up.  They “rebuilt” a team that averaged 8 wins before them.  What heroes!  Some fans questioned how our passing offense could be worse without Dennison and Tyrod but this regime somehow made it worse!!!

 

keep making excuses for them.  They drafted like 5 dbs and a bunch of average college slot wrs.  It’s like they hate offense.  Jauronball 2.0.

[RochesterRob]

3 minutes ago, KD in CA said:

 

I meant the current/recent teams;  not ever.

 

It's the early '80s teams that get me.  They had all the pieces for a couple years.  

  I don't know about the early 1980's teams being complete.  They could have used upgrades at WR, DE, and LB to go along with guys like Jerry Butler, etc.

[Bockeye]

Great post OP. Hats off to those hat have been saying this is a total rebuild - it is. 

[BringBackFergy]

Well done OP. Well done. 

[Batman1876]

I feel like a lot of people miss the fact that the team could not keep their talent they had. The cap would not allow it. If we had kept Cordy, tyrod and Darius we would have had about 21 million less to spend in free agency. Sign Sammy for 16 million and that’s 37 million in cap for those 4 guys.  Now let’s look at the guys we signed Star gets 6.7, Trent 4.5, Davis 4.3, bodine 2.1 for a total of 17.6 million, 20 million less than we would have spent on the players we let go of add in Kelvin’s 8.5 and we still would have to find 11.5 million dollars, which means you have to sign league minimum guys to fill out your roster or cut other guys. Talent had to go, they opted to trade it over 12 months rather than let it trickle out the door over 2or 3years. 

[Buffalo Ballin]

1 hour ago, gridrick said:

this regime is toast.  Love the Allen draft pick though.  Now get them outta here. 

No.

[HappyDays]

59 minutes ago, Foreigner said:

How can anyone in there right mind defend the product on the field Sunday.

 

Zero people are defending the product on the field. Some of us just understand it isn't the final product. Embrace the tank. When you have $50 million in dead cap there's no sense in selling out to win. From the moment they traded Watkins and Darby this has been a 3 year plan. And the thing that gives me hope is they've drafted well in the first 3 rounds. The only outright bust so far is Zay Jones. But Milano in the 5th makes up for it. Of course it's still too early to say for sure but all their high draft picks outside of Zay look like they belong on the field at least.

[BrooklynBills]

1 hour ago, donbb said:

Are we going to trust the regime that has signed FA duds such as Bodine, Star, Murphy, Davis, Gaines, Newhouse, and Kerley to spend all that FA money? That's a scary thought to me. 

Bodine - basically a 1 yr deal

Murphy - basically a two year deal but they can get out easy after this year if they want

Davis - 1 year deal

Gaines - 1 year deal

Newhouse - 1 year deal

Kerley - 1 year deal

 

Don't see how they are worth complaining about.

 

I have problems with some of what these guys have done but so far cap management is not one of them.

 

The plan is pretty clear IMO. They went scorched Earth with cap and used attitude and not buying in as an excuse. 

 

The are going to use the cap rollover loophole to build perpetual cap space moving forward just like the jags have recently done to build most of my their defense and OL. It is what the 49ers are currently doing.

 

[Chicken Boo]

They have shown no signs that they possess the ability to evaluate talent on the offensive side of the ball.  NONE!

[gobills1212]

Why this is so difficult to comprehend is beyond me. I genuinely dont understand how anyone who frequents a Bills message board and isnt trolling doesnt get this. Now, I get folks will be unhappy and thats fine. But some of the things people are thinking let alone posting publicly are just bonkers. I used to take pride in coming here and reading intelligent posts such as this and thinking how nice it was to be a part of a smart and knowledgeable fan base....

Now im not sure whats worse, this, or reading (for example) Gang Green and seeing how Jets fans have convinced themselves Darnold is the best QB of the class just bc he is the only one starting out of the gate. Different topic, but idea is the same. It amazes me they have no context and dont acknowledge other teams curcumstances and plans teams have in place. Speaking in absolutes about unknowns is just silly. 

 

[LSHMEAB]

2 hours ago, Kwai San said:

 

Dunno about you but Murph seems like a good pick up.....I say a wee bit early to make a decision on most of the others....more than one blowout game is needed before I scream bust.

 

 

"Murph" was possibly the worst pickup of all. Good ole "Murph" strikes me as the kind of guy who'd like to have a beer with the opposing QB after the game to chat about interest rates. If you're not sure about the QB situation, you damn well better have edge rushers because no defense can excel without them. Gotta be a top priority going forward.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

They “rebuilt” a team that averaged 8 wins before them

 

Do you understand that a team up against the cap should have a franchise QB and average more than 8 wins? We had bloated contracts to underperforming players that were impossible to get out of without major dead money.

[stony]

3 hours ago, KD in CA said:

 

The real question is, what is the commitment to that group beyond 2018?   

IDK, but it would seem there would be some serious dead money implications.  Not saying that's stopped Beane over the past year...

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

OP is a nice assessment of what they did.   It probably was necessary, as it was unlikely they could win with Taylor, Dareus and Watkins as their core.  

 

They will be judged on how they used their draft picks - betting the ranch on a QB and MLB, instead of building a line and taking the QB who fell to them.  

 

I like it.   Allen and Edmunds haven't disappointed - they look like they can grow into real winners, and if they do, Beane will have filled the two most important decisions in one season.   

 

Next season he drafts and signs linemen and receivers, and the Bills may be in business. 

 

And 2018 isn't over yet.  

And truth be told, none of their "wheeling and dealing" or draft capital will matter if Allen isn't good.  If he's legit, lets roll.  If he's not, they get fired.  Just the reality of the NFL.

[Mat68]

The Offense is desperate for speed.  McCloud is going to get alot of playing time inside.  Kerley, Benjamin and Jones cant separate.  Perriman though a bust should be brought it for at least a threat of someone getting over the top.  

[ctk232]

4 hours ago, Batman1876 said:

The writing was on the wall that they knew this season would be rough. They Chose dead cap and draft picks over keeping under preforming guys, who were nevertheless talented. They picked two developmental guys in the 1st round. They left free agency with an assortment of depth guys, over the hill veteran leadership guys, cheep risky guys who may be good and maybe a role player or two. they traded away 2018's roster so they'd have more tools to build 2019's roster.

 

The last 12 months set the stage for McBeane's gambit and the next 12 months will ultimately determine if it will pay off. 

Agreed with all but especially the above as it relates to this board's feelings today. Granted, no matter what your expectations were/are for this season, yesterday's loss has no excuse.

 

But the more I read, the more it seems people actually went through the entire offseason and believe that we would contend for the same result as last year. Not necessarily a playoff/wildcard berth, but to even be close to an 8-8/9-7 result. We were all thrilled the drought was ended with our first season under the new regime, but it is abundantly clear this is a team being built for the future, and not to win now. It's hard to argue how any move made in the offseason would lead us to compete this year, first. 

 

Your 12 month assessment might be too tight to see the real dividends Beane intended for with his moves this offseason, but I do hope that we start to see results to be confident in that intended future, during that period.

Edited September 11, 2018 by ctk232

[JaCrispy]

3 hours ago, gridrick said:

this regime is toast.  Love the Allen draft pick though.  Now get them outta here. 

He needs an offensive minded HC who understands the importance of building an offense around him.

[RiotAct]

3 hours ago, Lurker said:

Risky business in the Not For Long league.    Stumble again next year and you're calling the moving vans...

except if your name is Marvin Lewis!

[Jauronimo]

4 hours ago, Batman1876 said:

When McBeane took over in 2017 they saw a team that was in a tough spot.  Little cap room in 2017 and even less in 2018. The previous few drafts had provided precious little talent to build around.  There were big money players under preforming their contracts. Our championship window was closing on a team that was mediocre at best.  Big money contracts would necessitate we ditch some talent to make room to fill a roster and we'd chug along with the mediocre play that had defined most of the drought.  But they decided to take it another route. 

 

McBeane's gambit was to get rid of all that talent that would not be a part of the team's future as soon as possible, trading them for draft assets.  The Number of trades made over the course of that first year was truly staggering. They turned talent that they did not see as the future of the team into two 2nd round picks, two 3rd round picks, a 5th round pick and two 7th round picks. This would not come without a cost, in the form of huge dead cap money and a roster with holes. The benefits could be huge too, lots of draft capital with which to get young talent and a very favorable roster situation in 2019. The Bills have 91 million available next year and only 4 players cost more to cut than they do to keep 3 of those being out 2017, 2018 first round picks. 

 

The writing was on the wall that they knew this season would be rough. They Chose dead cap and draft picks over keeping under preforming guys, who were nevertheless talented. They picked two developmental guys in the 1st round. They left free agency with an assortment of depth guys, over the hill veteran leadership guys, cheep risky guys who may be good and maybe a role player or two. they traded away 2018's roster so they'd have more tools to build 2019's roster.

 

The last 12 months set the stage for McBeane's gambit and the next 12 months will ultimately determine if it will pay off. 

Getting terrible and accumulating picks is the easy part.  Almost all of those draft resources netted from the trade activity you described was invested in 2 players in April.  We have 6 draft picks next year.  But at least we have $91MM to fill all the holes they created with next year's Bodines, Phil Gaines, Murphy, Star and Kerley.  

[nedboy7]

So to rebuild you have to start w complete garbage?  Ok I’m on board now. 

[The_Dude]

Some people just want to believe the team is in good hands no matter how obvious the blunders. 

[nedboy7]

22 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Do you understand that a team up against the cap should have a franchise QB and average more than 8 wins? We had bloated contracts to underperforming players that were impossible to get out of without major dead money.

 

So why the horrible FA signings.  Good thing they got rid of the underperforming players. Cause this team is just hitting on all cylinders. 

1 hour ago, BrooklynBills said:

Bodine - basically a 1 yr deal

Murphy - basically a two year deal but they can get out easy after this year if they want

Davis - 1 year deal

Gaines - 1 year deal

Newhouse - 1 year deal

Kerley - 1 year deal

 

Don't see how they are worth complaining about.

 

I have problems with some of what these guys have done but so far cap management is not one of them.

 

The plan is pretty clear IMO. They went scorched Earth with cap and used attitude and not buying in as an excuse. 

 

The are going to use the cap rollover loophole to build perpetual cap space moving forward just like the jags have recently done to build most of my their defense and OL. It is what the 49ers are currently doing.

 

 

How do you develop a QB or keep him safe w this oline and WRs? 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Kwai San said:

 

Dunno about you but Murph seems like a good pick up.....I say a wee bit early to make a decision on most of the others....more than one blowout game is needed before I scream bust.

 

He’s a good player, but he’s playing like he can’t push off.  No burst.

[Batman1876]

6 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Getting terrible and accumulating picks is the easy part.  Almost all of those draft resources netted from the trade activity you described was invested in 2 players in April.  We have 6 draft picks next year.  But at least we have $91MM to fill all the holes they created with next year's Bodines, Phil Gaines, Murphy, Star and Kerley.  

I can’t think of another team that traded players for picks like we did. 

 

4 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

 

So why the horrible FA signings.  Good thing they got rid of the underperforming players. Cause this team is just hitting on all cylinders. 

 Our free agent signings were fine for the depth and role players that they are. 

 

6 minutes ago, The_Dude said:

Some people just want to believe the team is in good hands no matter how obvious the blunders. 

Just pointing out what the plan was. The real key will be if the huge number of changes we get next year work out. 

 

13 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

He needs an offensive minded HC who understands the importance of building an offense around him.

I think they knew but knowing and having the resources to do it are 2 different things. 

[Jauronimo]

23 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Do you understand that a team up against the cap should have a franchise QB and average more than 8 wins? We had bloated contracts to underperforming players that were impossible to get out of without major dead money.

And now we have smaller contracts for less talented yet still underperforming players.  Mostly short term deals.  So next year we can plug 20 open roster spots in free agency AND improve at skill positions.  And all without over paying!!

 

Just need to get out from under Shady, Hughes, and Clay's contracts and we'll be ready to compete for a Big 12 title in 2019.

 

 

[nedboy7]

Just now, Batman1876 said:

I can’t think of another team that traded players for picks like we did. 

 

 Our free agent signings were fine for the depth and role players that they are. 

 

Just pointing out what the plan was. The real key will be if the huge number of changes we get next year work out. 

 

I think they knew but knowing and having the resources to do it are 2 different things. 

 

well enjoy this season I guess.  the plan is in motion. 

[Jauronimo]

1 minute ago, Batman1876 said:

I can’t think of another team that traded players for picks like we did. 

 

 Our free agent signings were fine for the depth and role players that they are. 

 

Just pointing out what the plan was. The real key will be if the huge number of changes we get next year work out. 

 

I think they knew but knowing and having the resources to do it are 2 different things. 

Look at what Sashi Brown did a few years ago.  The Browns had 14 picks in the draft. 1-31.

[K-9]

"McBeane's Gambit". Sounds like a chapter title and con game from 'The Sting.'

[HappyDays]

7 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

So why the horrible FA signings.  

 

Making the mistake of signing Vontae Davis for $5 million is not a "horrible" FA signing. Don't you guys pay attention to the rest of the league? The Patriots paid Gillislee $4 million last year and he didn't start most of their games. I remember all the salary cap geniuses around here that thought we should have kept him. Low level free agent signings are going to be hit or miss. Our big signings last year were Poyer and Hyde - I would say those worked out pretty well. Lotulelei is doing exactly what he's supposed to, taking up blockers and letting the LBs roam free. Trent Murphy has been injured. We turned McCarron into a free 5th round pick. Are those the horrible FA signings you're talking about? How about the draft because I think we've nailed 5 out of our last 6 picks in rounds 1-3. That's where GMs make their money.

[stony]

39 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Do you understand that a team up against the cap should have a franchise QB and average more than 8 wins? We had bloated contracts to underperforming players that were impossible to get out of without major dead money.

Who were the bloated contracts to underperforming players?  Other than MD?

[HappyDays]

11 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

So next year we can plug 20 open roster spots in free agency AND improve at skill positions. 

 

These are our major needs:

 

DE

OG

RT

WR

LB

 

Our secondary needs:

 

RCB

DT (to replace Kyle)

TE

 

We have 9 draft picks and $65 million in free cap space. It will be doable. I'm not saying we will have all pros at every position, and one of those positions will probably remain a need until 2020. But this is what a rebuild looks like.

Edited September 11, 2018 by HappyDays

[Batman1876]

2 minutes ago, stony said:

Who were the bloated contracts to underperforming players?  Other than MD?

Clay, Tyrod, Cordy (after Dawkins made him expendable) , Sammy on his way to his current payday. Let me put it this way, we were spent to the cap last year and the cap hit for those contracts was going to grow this year. Did we have a roster whose talent matched our spending? 

[Jauronimo]

3 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:

Clay, Tyrod, Cordy (after Dawkins made him expendable) , Sammy on his way to his current payday. Let me put it this way, we were spent to the cap last year and the cap hit for those contracts was going to grow this year. Did we have a roster whose talent matched our spending? 

Tyrod restructured a short term deal paying him average starter money and Watkins was on his rookie deal.  Flat out wrong.  Watching this offensive line, its hard to say a real NFL tackle was "expendable".  Why is Clay still here if Beanius is crushing it? 

[Batman1876]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

Tyrod>Peterman. Obviously and he wouldn't be here after this season.

Cordy> better than any awful player we put at RT

Watkins>Benjamin. Watkins opens up the offense for EVERYONE. Benjamins slow with bad knees and doesn't seem to give a !@#$.

 

We'd still be in more than solid shape salary cap wise in 2019 if all these players at their current contracts were still on the team.

 

Wed be in worse shape cap wise this year and have fewer assets.  17 mil for a 4 game tyrod rental is steep. Watkins has a 20 mil cap hit next year Kelvin is 0. Cordy is good but I’d rather have Allen or Edmunds. Cordy Tyrod and Watkins would have cost us 31 million. Which is more than we spent this year on all our signings combined.