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Midwest1981

"So You're Telling Me There's (Not) a Chance Bills Aren't Awful"- Rotoworld's Fantasy and Season Preview

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2 hours ago, Midwest1981 said:

The Bills’ Win Total opened at 6.5 with -130 odds on the over. Perhaps aimed at capturing public bettors who recall the Bills “making the playoffs,” it was a surprisingly high total for a team that finished 2017 with a -57 point differential and went a regression-bound 6-2 in one-score games. Buffalo “made the playoffs” due to the weakness of the AFC and a few lucky ball bounces.

 

I'm tired of reading these stats.  The Bills lost to the Saints and Chargers back to back by 67 points (+ 10 in the other 14 games). Haven't we all heard that good teams find a way to win close games and bad teams find a way to lose them?

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1 hour ago, Buddo said:

This is someone who is purely stats driven. So it's no great surprise he would go down that pessimistic route, as there aren't enough 'stats' on many of the Bills to base much of anything on.

The thing I did find rather ironic, is that he's blasting Benjamin for being slow, yet ignoring the obvious 'injured' reasons for that being the case. As I said, purely 'stats' driven.

 

Seems to me that it's a fundamental problem with NFL commentary these days, in that so much of it is driven by fantasy football stuff, which in fairness to Silva, is what I believe the article has its foundations in.

 

Tbh, unless it's someone on the D, there likely aren't going to be many FF stars for the Bills, outside of Shady, at least that can be identified right now.

Bingo.  He's right, we're awful in the fantasy department, other than perhaps the team defense stat.  Which is why his rant is so off the mark.  He ignores the likely strength of the team, as it doesn't fit his fantasy perspective.  I also agree with others that our O-line may not have taken as much of a hit as portrayed.  I don't see playoffs this year, more like the 6-8 win range.  But it will be fun to watch the team grow. 

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2 hours ago, The Red King said:

Click-bait idiocy.  This year's "The Bills season is over before it started."

Seriously, did a Buffalo Bill pee in this guy's cereal or something at some point?  😞

 

I think he drafted Sammy Watkins in his fantasy league or something.

Or perhaps it was Dareus just before the substances suspension.

 

Fantasy geek has Bills players underperform,  has Bills players "P*ss in his Wheaties" - all same thing

 

Mind you, the Bills might be awful - a lot of unknowns, and a lot depending on our coaches. 

If Daboll is who he was in his last NFL OC stint, it won't be pretty.  If he's learned something, could be good.

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Posted (edited)

I'm not going to argue that the Playoffs this year is a stretch- and I can certainly see how an outsider wouldn't be bullish on them either, considering the questions at major positions on the roster that we have, such as QB, WR, and two or three positions along the offensive line.  But some of these comments are just uncalled for and gratuitous, like the shots at Josh Allen and his "upside" rivaling that of JaMarcus Russell, Kyle Boller, Jake Locker, etc.  Or his 2017 finish in the Mountain West Conference award honors, neglecting to mention (FWIW) that he was 2nd-team the year before.

 

I do think that 2018 will be a season mostly of struggle- while the Bills will be growing together as an offense they probably empirically do and will have the toughest first-half slate out of any team in the NFL, even allowing for the fluidity of NFL schedules (at Ravens; CHARGERS; at Vikings; at Packers; TITANS; at Texans; at Colts; PATRIOTS).  My guess is we only win 1-3 of those but that the second half is another story and that's when Allen's introduction to the NFL begins.

Edited by Midwest1981
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Whether or not he dislikes the Bills, seems to me his assessment of Allen and Benjamin is based on facts. While I hope Allen turns into a star, he is most definitely a very long shot based on his entire career to date.

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Oh, to be clear, while I still predict 9-7, I openly admit there can be regression and do not attack/insult people who suggest there might be (people who say there will is another story...I hate opinion states as fact).  I fully respect people that put them around six wins even if I don't agree with them.  Two wins, while technically possible, is just silly (and if they win two or less games I'll openly admit I was wrong).  Buffalo plays Miami and the Jets twice, and those two game alone are normally worth 2-3 wins.  So, the argument is either Buffalo will win two against those two teams, and fail to beat any other team...or Buffalo won't even win two of four against those two.  Now, I realize the Jets drafting a rookie QB automatically makes them a much-improved, better then Buffalo team by default (wait, did I forget /sarcasm tag?), but still...

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I didn’t see it as all that negative. Just taking a position on where the bills will be this season, from a fantasy perspective and Vegas over/under. 

 

Are there any avid and good fanstasy players on here that think any bills are fantasy locks?

 

Maybe the defense is worth a pick up, I wouldn’t look at any anyone other than McCoy (if he’s around late) with a the ‘?’s right now. 

 

 

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Wow.  It takes serious work to be that negative.  Kudos on the effort, if nothing else.

 

I think it may be Chris Ivory he's mad at, "McCoy’s backups are uninspiring to be kind in inefficient 30-year-old washed-up grinder Chris Ivory...", though I think in a roundabout way he also just called Travaris a space cadet, "and journeyman space back Travaris Cadet."

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4 hours ago, The Red King said:

Click-bait idiocy.  This year's "The Bills season is over before it started."

 

Seriously, did a Buffalo Bill pee in this guy's cereal or something at some point?  😞

I haven't yet but I will If I get a chance. I am not a Bill just a fan, but I would be happy to help.

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Honestly, I don't see a high win total myself.  This take though shows some bias.  Who cares?

 

When will Bills fans stop worrying about what other people think?  This happens year in and year out and most still acting surprised. 

 

How many times do you need to not get invited to the dance to be surprised when your not invited again to the dance?

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He forgot the part where the Bills have a top ten defence.

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i for one am expecting a great season. our run d and sack totals will be very much improved. vontae davis will be just as good as gaines last year. our rookies...edmunds, johnson and neal will have an immediate impact....not to mention....well i just think they crushed this draft from top to bottom.

 

our playcalling and passing attack will improve 100% and even though the schedule looks rough to start, we will be in a great position to go on a second half winning streak.

i fully expect to command a wild card spot. my biggest hope...or worry is the first 2 games against conference perennial playoff teams. however, nobody can game plan for daboll, a.j. and our defense so maybe we can come out of the gate and go at least 2-2 out of the first 4.

 

if we can do that, we may only drop 2 more to the pats...plus maybe a let down somewhere but that puts us at 11-5. i am saying we will be no less than 10-6.

i hope a.j. has great success and i want nate to back him up. if we get a playoff season from a.j. that will only pay great dividends.

 

my bottom line prediction is that we will be able to rest a.j. and play allen the last game as we will have a playoff spot locked up.

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Our team is statistically terrible. This only proves stats can only take you so far. This is a fantasy football media person so hes only looking at stats. Hard to make a prediction based on only one piece of data.

 

2 wins? Hell no, well at least get to 4 and might get to 10 wins if daboll and AJM surprise peeps.

 

 

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I hope the kid works out. The way his critics bash him, you would think he was a total off the field jerk or something. 

 

I was listening to a Fantasy Football podcast, and Adam Rank (from NFL Network) was really criticizing Allen too.  It seemed kind of over the top.  He said "Josh Allen is the second coming of Donovan McNabb".  He meant it as an insult.  I was thought to myself, if he is the second coming of Donovan McNabb, than he won't be the bust that so many of these jagoffs are predicting. 

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Honestly, that's really not an unfair assessment of 2017.  This team had abysmal performances against middling teams all year, so it's hard to disagree with the 2017 analysis.  Can you predict this year's performance from that?  hard to say, we'll just HAVE to play the games this year I guess.

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58 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:

i for one am expecting a great season. our run d and sack totals will be very much improved. vontae davis will be just as good as gaines last year. our rookies...edmunds, johnson and neal will have an immediate impact....not to mention....well i just think they crushed this draft from top to bottom.

 

our playcalling and passing attack will improve 100% and even though the schedule looks rough to start, we will be in a great position to go on a second half winning streak.

i fully expect to command a wild card spot. my biggest hope...or worry is the first 2 games against conference perennial playoff teams. however, nobody can game plan for daboll, a.j. and our defense so maybe we can come out of the gate and go at least 2-2 out of the first 4.

 

if we can do that, we may only drop 2 more to the pats...plus maybe a let down somewhere but that puts us at 11-5. i am saying we will be no less than 10-6.

i hope a.j. has great success and i want nate to back him up. if we get a playoff season from a.j. that will only pay great dividends.

 

my bottom line prediction is that we will be able to rest a.j. and play allen the last game as we will have a playoff spot locked up.

 

 

I'll take that but i expect the Bills will beat New England twice this year. 

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I have a strange feeling that the Bills will be better than rotoworld and that it won't take much to be better.

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Posted (edited)

I've stated my position before about this on how I just can't imagine this team being worse than 6-10, but more so that I can't imagine that a team with this defense would sink to the bottom of this league and to the top of the 2019 draft.

 

That said, I think some of the national talking heads are giving a ridiculous amount of credence for the success of this team being an offense and a QB that was 29th and 31st (?) in the league, respectively.

 

If Shady goes down...maybe you book this team under 4 wins.  However, Chan's 4-12 team was simply dreadful (starting 0-8) and yet they were still 4-12.  While Williams' 3-13 was the result of being gutted and having literally nobody.

 

...yet this team and this staff are going to finish around 2-14?

Edited by dollars 2 donuts

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This is a fantasy football profile yes? So I can understand why it’s pretty brutal. Seriously would any of you take any current Bill in your fantasy leagues? Besides McCoy maybe?

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My biggest disagreement with the "analysis" is that he claims the playoff berth was detrimental.  I disagree completely.

 

That berth got the 17 year playoff drought off the teams back.  More importantly, the new staff won't be fielding questions about a playoff drought they had no part in creating.  It bought them time to do the rebuild right.  I just hope Allen proves to be the guy here.

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Look, I keep saying it's certainly possible that the Bills are among the worst teams in the league in 2018.   It's not difficult to describe scenarios where the Bills are remarkably bad, starting with the fact that it's quite possible that they could have one of the worst starting QBs in the league.   Their best starter appears to be McCarron, who couldn't take the job from Dalton, who is not anyone's dream quarterback. 

 

But if you want to predict that the Bills are going to be bad, how about giving some reasonably explanations, like I just did.   Instead, this guy cherry-picks stats to explain his conclusion.   Like, claiming Kelvin Benjamin is a horrible receiver because he's among the slowest.    How about the fact that he was Cam Newton's favorite target and had back-to-back 1000 yard seasons?   (well, almost.)  What difference does it make if your wideout is slow, if you're running a run-first, possession offense and the guy is more or less unstoppable inside 20 yards?   He's faster than Gronkowski, and he's nearly as dominant.  

 

He says that the Bills were a "regression-bound" 6-2 in games decided by one score.   That is, the Bills were good at winning close games and the law of averages says they won't be that good.   But in the same sentence he says the Bills were a horrible -57 in point differential, but somehow THAT stat is not regression bound.   In other words, without justification he assumes that the Bills bad stats will remain bad and their good stats will turn bad.   

 

Not exactly sure how he concludes the Bills have the worst talent in the division.   Bills finshed three games better than the Dolphins and four games better than the Jets, beat the Dolphins twice and split with the Jets.   So how does that equate with those teams having better talent?  Does that mean the Bills have much better coaching?   The Bills added a starting defensive tackle and a starting corner back in free agency, and neither the Jets nor the Dolphins drafted a player with more upside than Edmunds.   So where does he see a talent differential?   

 

As I said, the Bills could be bad, and their are reasons to explain why they might be.   This guy doesn't seem to have any of those reasons.   He just thinks they'll be bad because, well, he thinks it.  

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4 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

I think it is a good article...just cause it does not slurp the Bills does not mean it wrong. I am terrified of Josh Allen, rooting like hell for him, but i don't think he gets it done. Silva is a analytics/stats guy..and the numbers do stare the Bills were fortunate last year and bound for a regression..much like the Raiders numbers did the year before last. Now, there is a legitimate argument that numbers/stats do not tell the whole story..and especially in such a short season that the NFL is..but I tend to trust them.

 

I hope I am wrong..especially the first month as it appears I will be at 4 of the first 5 games...but think it will be a long year for the fellas.

 

I am one of those in the "this team is 5-11 6-10" camp so I am not drinking the coolaid. I freely would admit I expect the team to regress this year due to luck swinging against them and in general an offense that won't do enough to support a potentially decent defense. That said some of his remarks are straight pot shots and scream of a someone who only looks at numbers to analyze everything and nothing else matters when building a roster. Saying a team mistakenly made the playoffs is about as dumb as it gets. Culture is a major competent to the success of any org regardless of sports. Incredibly talented organizations have fallen despite the talent they had because the culture destroyed any chance of success. Outside of Marrone this franchise has lacked a clear concise culture from its coach and in total from owner to coach going back to the days of John Butler. It really f*ckin mattered they made the playoffs given the pressure and decisions made during the drought and the weight it lifted. It shifted the expectations finally from just making the playoffs to winning consistently long term.

 

I've read a lot of Silva's stuff and he basically believes the Bills should've sold off everything last year to rebuild to bottom out at like 2-14. Ask the Browns how that's gone for years and where they stand. Drafting QB's is the biggest gamble period. The Bills at least took a shot at a guy, they have $100 million in cap, and a good amount of picks in 2019 to build with Allen long term.

 

The majority of major NFL media understand all of this and have praised what McBeane are building. You have no guarantees in sports but the plan is there in plain sight which is vastly different compared to years and years before. Like I said their certainly is valid criticism for the current roster I have no clue why the heck we didn't resign even Deonte Thompson at WR but I am just one opinion and voice. I wish analyst's like Silva would do less interjection of their personnel view on building a roster/team and actually analyze even if it is different from their beliefs.

 

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Look, I keep saying it's certainly possible that the Bills are among the worst teams in the league in 2018.   It's not difficult to describe scenarios where the Bills are remarkably bad, starting with the fact that it's quite possible that they could have one of the worst starting QBs in the league.   Their best starter appears to be McCarron, who couldn't take the job from Dalton, who is not anyone's dream quarterback. 

 

But if you want to predict that the Bills are going to be bad, how about giving some reasonably explanations, like I just did.   Instead, this guy cherry-picks stats to explain his conclusion.   Like, claiming Kelvin Benjamin is a horrible receiver because he's among the slowest.    How about the fact that he was Cam Newton's favorite target and had back-to-back 1000 yard seasons?   (well, almost.)  What difference does it make if your wideout is slow, if you're running a run-first, possession offense and the guy is more or less unstoppable inside 20 yards?   He's faster than Gronkowski, and he's nearly as dominant.  

 

He says that the Bills were a "regression-bound" 6-2 in games decided by one score.   That is, the Bills were good at winning close games and the law of averages says they won't be that good.   But in the same sentence he says the Bills were a horrible -57 in point differential, but somehow THAT stat is not regression bound.   In other words, without justification he assumes that the Bills bad stats will remain bad and their good stats will turn bad.   

 

Not exactly sure how he concludes the Bills have the worst talent in the division.   Bills finshed three games better than the Dolphins and four games better than the Jets, beat the Dolphins twice and split with the Jets.   So how does that equate with those teams having better talent?  Does that mean the Bills have much better coaching?   The Bills added a starting defensive tackle and a starting corner back in free agency, and neither the Jets nor the Dolphins drafted a player with more upside than Edmunds.   So where does he see a talent differential?   

 

As I said, the Bills could be bad, and their are reasons to explain why they might be.   This guy doesn't seem to have any of those reasons.   He just thinks they'll be bad because, well, he thinks it.  

 

He seems to want to dissent for the sake of dissenting. On twitter he is blocking anyone who disagrees even if their argument has any fact because he is set in his ways.

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