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"So You're Telling Me There's (Not) a Chance Bills Aren't Awful"- Rotoworld's Fantasy and Season Preview


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Honestly, that's really not an unfair assessment of 2017.  This team had abysmal performances against middling teams all year, so it's hard to disagree with the 2017 analysis.  Can you predict this year's performance from that?  hard to say, we'll just HAVE to play the games this year I guess.

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58 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:

i for one am expecting a great season. our run d and sack totals will be very much improved. vontae davis will be just as good as gaines last year. our rookies...edmunds, johnson and neal will have an immediate impact....not to mention....well i just think they crushed this draft from top to bottom.

 

our playcalling and passing attack will improve 100% and even though the schedule looks rough to start, we will be in a great position to go on a second half winning streak.

i fully expect to command a wild card spot. my biggest hope...or worry is the first 2 games against conference perennial playoff teams. however, nobody can game plan for daboll, a.j. and our defense so maybe we can come out of the gate and go at least 2-2 out of the first 4.

 

if we can do that, we may only drop 2 more to the pats...plus maybe a let down somewhere but that puts us at 11-5. i am saying we will be no less than 10-6.

i hope a.j. has great success and i want nate to back him up. if we get a playoff season from a.j. that will only pay great dividends.

 

my bottom line prediction is that we will be able to rest a.j. and play allen the last game as we will have a playoff spot locked up.

 

 

I'll take that but i expect the Bills will beat New England twice this year. 

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I've stated my position before about this on how I just can't imagine this team being worse than 6-10, but more so that I can't imagine that a team with this defense would sink to the bottom of this league and to the top of the 2019 draft.

 

That said, I think some of the national talking heads are giving a ridiculous amount of credence for the success of this team being an offense and a QB that was 29th and 31st (?) in the league, respectively.

 

If Shady goes down...maybe you book this team under 4 wins.  However, Chan's 4-12 team was simply dreadful (starting 0-8) and yet they were still 4-12.  While Williams' 3-13 was the result of being gutted and having literally nobody.

 

...yet this team and this staff are going to finish around 2-14?

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My biggest disagreement with the "analysis" is that he claims the playoff berth was detrimental.  I disagree completely.

 

That berth got the 17 year playoff drought off the teams back.  More importantly, the new staff won't be fielding questions about a playoff drought they had no part in creating.  It bought them time to do the rebuild right.  I just hope Allen proves to be the guy here.

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Look, I keep saying it's certainly possible that the Bills are among the worst teams in the league in 2018.   It's not difficult to describe scenarios where the Bills are remarkably bad, starting with the fact that it's quite possible that they could have one of the worst starting QBs in the league.   Their best starter appears to be McCarron, who couldn't take the job from Dalton, who is not anyone's dream quarterback. 

 

But if you want to predict that the Bills are going to be bad, how about giving some reasonably explanations, like I just did.   Instead, this guy cherry-picks stats to explain his conclusion.   Like, claiming Kelvin Benjamin is a horrible receiver because he's among the slowest.    How about the fact that he was Cam Newton's favorite target and had back-to-back 1000 yard seasons?   (well, almost.)  What difference does it make if your wideout is slow, if you're running a run-first, possession offense and the guy is more or less unstoppable inside 20 yards?   He's faster than Gronkowski, and he's nearly as dominant.  

 

He says that the Bills were a "regression-bound" 6-2 in games decided by one score.   That is, the Bills were good at winning close games and the law of averages says they won't be that good.   But in the same sentence he says the Bills were a horrible -57 in point differential, but somehow THAT stat is not regression bound.   In other words, without justification he assumes that the Bills bad stats will remain bad and their good stats will turn bad.   

 

Not exactly sure how he concludes the Bills have the worst talent in the division.   Bills finshed three games better than the Dolphins and four games better than the Jets, beat the Dolphins twice and split with the Jets.   So how does that equate with those teams having better talent?  Does that mean the Bills have much better coaching?   The Bills added a starting defensive tackle and a starting corner back in free agency, and neither the Jets nor the Dolphins drafted a player with more upside than Edmunds.   So where does he see a talent differential?   

 

As I said, the Bills could be bad, and their are reasons to explain why they might be.   This guy doesn't seem to have any of those reasons.   He just thinks they'll be bad because, well, he thinks it.  

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4 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

I think it is a good article...just cause it does not slurp the Bills does not mean it wrong. I am terrified of Josh Allen, rooting like hell for him, but i don't think he gets it done. Silva is a analytics/stats guy..and the numbers do stare the Bills were fortunate last year and bound for a regression..much like the Raiders numbers did the year before last. Now, there is a legitimate argument that numbers/stats do not tell the whole story..and especially in such a short season that the NFL is..but I tend to trust them.

 

I hope I am wrong..especially the first month as it appears I will be at 4 of the first 5 games...but think it will be a long year for the fellas.

 

I am one of those in the "this team is 5-11 6-10" camp so I am not drinking the coolaid. I freely would admit I expect the team to regress this year due to luck swinging against them and in general an offense that won't do enough to support a potentially decent defense. That said some of his remarks are straight pot shots and scream of a someone who only looks at numbers to analyze everything and nothing else matters when building a roster. Saying a team mistakenly made the playoffs is about as dumb as it gets. Culture is a major competent to the success of any org regardless of sports. Incredibly talented organizations have fallen despite the talent they had because the culture destroyed any chance of success. Outside of Marrone this franchise has lacked a clear concise culture from its coach and in total from owner to coach going back to the days of John Butler. It really f*ckin mattered they made the playoffs given the pressure and decisions made during the drought and the weight it lifted. It shifted the expectations finally from just making the playoffs to winning consistently long term.

 

I've read a lot of Silva's stuff and he basically believes the Bills should've sold off everything last year to rebuild to bottom out at like 2-14. Ask the Browns how that's gone for years and where they stand. Drafting QB's is the biggest gamble period. The Bills at least took a shot at a guy, they have $100 million in cap, and a good amount of picks in 2019 to build with Allen long term.

 

The majority of major NFL media understand all of this and have praised what McBeane are building. You have no guarantees in sports but the plan is there in plain sight which is vastly different compared to years and years before. Like I said their certainly is valid criticism for the current roster I have no clue why the heck we didn't resign even Deonte Thompson at WR but I am just one opinion and voice. I wish analyst's like Silva would do less interjection of their personnel view on building a roster/team and actually analyze even if it is different from their beliefs.

 

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Look, I keep saying it's certainly possible that the Bills are among the worst teams in the league in 2018.   It's not difficult to describe scenarios where the Bills are remarkably bad, starting with the fact that it's quite possible that they could have one of the worst starting QBs in the league.   Their best starter appears to be McCarron, who couldn't take the job from Dalton, who is not anyone's dream quarterback. 

 

But if you want to predict that the Bills are going to be bad, how about giving some reasonably explanations, like I just did.   Instead, this guy cherry-picks stats to explain his conclusion.   Like, claiming Kelvin Benjamin is a horrible receiver because he's among the slowest.    How about the fact that he was Cam Newton's favorite target and had back-to-back 1000 yard seasons?   (well, almost.)  What difference does it make if your wideout is slow, if you're running a run-first, possession offense and the guy is more or less unstoppable inside 20 yards?   He's faster than Gronkowski, and he's nearly as dominant.  

 

He says that the Bills were a "regression-bound" 6-2 in games decided by one score.   That is, the Bills were good at winning close games and the law of averages says they won't be that good.   But in the same sentence he says the Bills were a horrible -57 in point differential, but somehow THAT stat is not regression bound.   In other words, without justification he assumes that the Bills bad stats will remain bad and their good stats will turn bad.   

 

Not exactly sure how he concludes the Bills have the worst talent in the division.   Bills finshed three games better than the Dolphins and four games better than the Jets, beat the Dolphins twice and split with the Jets.   So how does that equate with those teams having better talent?  Does that mean the Bills have much better coaching?   The Bills added a starting defensive tackle and a starting corner back in free agency, and neither the Jets nor the Dolphins drafted a player with more upside than Edmunds.   So where does he see a talent differential?   

 

As I said, the Bills could be bad, and their are reasons to explain why they might be.   This guy doesn't seem to have any of those reasons.   He just thinks they'll be bad because, well, he thinks it.  

 

He seems to want to dissent for the sake of dissenting. On twitter he is blocking anyone who disagrees even if their argument has any fact because he is set in his ways.

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5 hours ago, Enemarty said:

Bingo.  He's right, we're awful in the fantasy department, other than perhaps the team defense stat.  Which is why his rant is so off the mark.  He ignores the likely strength of the team, as it doesn't fit his fantasy perspective.  I also agree with others that our O-line may not have taken as much of a hit as portrayed.  I don't see playoffs this year, more like the 6-8 win range.  But it will be fun to watch the team grow. 

 

You nailed how I feel about this team 100%, including the O-line

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It's hard to argue with a lot of what he said.

 

Our schedule is hard.

 

Allen is a project.

 

Our offense is devoid of talent in the pass game. 


What he doesn't cover is our defense, which could be elite. No idea how good it will be, but if it's top 10 you can probably bank on at least 6 or 7 wins.

 

The offense is going to be the major problem area. Will we be able to score points? How good or bad will Allen be?

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8 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

Isn’t it better to be written off by these scrubs and have no pressure going into the season? 

 

Id rather the Bills be the “under the radar” team that might catch some of their opponents by surprise..

Scrubs?

 

Pay attention to what Vegas thinks about all this; they aren't scrubs and they aren't wrong all that often.

 

 

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Just now, Fadingpain said:

Scrubs?

 

Pay attention to what Vegas thinks about all this; they aren't scrubs and they aren't wrong all that often.

 

 

 

Yeah I get it... you are a glass is half empty type...

 

Was Vegas wrong last year?  Scrubs I tell you..

 

If only the pain was fading but it’s been one splitting migraine since Draft night..

 

 

 

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What's funny is that last year was being criticized as a tank year after moving Sammy, Marcell, Woods, Gilmore, Gillislee among others. They dumped some big salaries along with some not really worth the money players, and yet the team made the playoffs.

 

Still, the key point here for 2018 is the Bills lost Center Eric Wood, all pro LG Richie Incognito and traded away Cordy Glenn. Meanwhile, the FO didn't upgrade any of those positions in the draft. Plus the team moved away from the running QB who could neutralize a somewhat bad right side of the line with his scrambling ability. Now.this year the team wants the QB's to be strictly pocket throwers with a much worse line.  

 

Things could get really ugly really quickly and make that 5 INT's in a half by Peterman look like a normal occurrence every game this year. Everything is going to depend on how that offensive line can hold up this year or if this FO can pull off a Buddy Nix and find some usable bandaids off the waiver wire like he did with Erik Pears, Kraig Urbik. 

 

Walterfootball has the Bills picking #2 behind Miami in the 2019 NFL draft.  If so I think the Bills are taking a bunch of offensive linemen in that draft.

 

 

 

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34 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

Scrubs?

 

Pay attention to what Vegas thinks about all this; they aren't scrubs and they aren't wrong all that often.

 

 

Vegas often under values the Bills on the over-under, because Vegas wants to even out the betting.   The general public thinks the Bills are horrible (in part because of journalism like this), so the general public tends to take the under on the Bills.   (The general public thinks the Pats will win it all, so the over-under on the Pats often is a little high, for the same reason. ) In order to even out the betting, Vegas has to push the Bills' over-under down a bit, making the over look like more of a bargain.   So if Vegas is saying 6.5, and if they're discounting the Bills a bit, then the "real" over-under is about 7.   I think that's low, but I'm an optimist; it's probably a pretty good prediction.  

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28 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

What's funny is that last year was being criticized as a tank year after moving Sammy, Marcell, Woods, Gilmore, Gillislee among others. They dumped some big salaries along with some not really worth the money players, and yet the team made the playoffs.

 

Still, the key point here for 2018 is the Bills lost Center Eric Wood, all pro LG Richie Incognito and traded away Cordy Glenn. Meanwhile, the FO didn't upgrade any of those positions in the draft. Plus the team moved away from the running QB who could neutralize a somewhat bad right side of the line with his scrambling ability. Now.this year the team wants the QB's to be strictly pocket throwers with a much worse line.  

 

Things could get really ugly really quickly and make that 5 INT's in a half by Peterman look like a normal occurrence every game this year. Everything is going to depend on how that offensive line can hold up this year or if this FO can pull off a Buddy Nix and find some usable bandaids off the waiver wire like he did with Erik Pears, Kraig Urbik. 

 

Walterfootball has the Bills picking #2 behind Miami in the 2019 NFL draft.  If so I think the Bills are taking a bunch of offensive linemen in that draft.

 

 

 

 

The OL is the biggest question mark for me in 2018 and looks on paper the area where the Bills are weakest..

 

They did draft Teller in the 5th who looks a reasonable prospect ( but it would be a surprise if he is an early season starter), but they had the opportunity to take Tyrell Crosby ( or someone else) in the 4th and overlooked him for what appeared to be a lesser need at cornerback depth...

 

Can only hope that they are confident in some of the younger guys who were already on the team ( I'm looking at Connor McDermott) who they have earmarked to step up this year...

 

I'm hoping that they have something else in mind other than Bodine and Newhouse anyway...


 

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23 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Vegas often under values the Bills on the over-under, because Vegas wants to even out the betting.   The general public thinks the Bills are horrible (in part because of journalism like this), so the general public tends to take the under on the Bills.   (The general public thinks the Pats will win it all, so the over-under on the Pats often is a little high, for the same reason. ) In order to even out the betting, Vegas has to push the Bills' over-under down a bit, making the over look like more of a bargain.   So if Vegas is saying 6.5, and if they're discounting the Bills a bit, then the "real" over-under is about 7.   I think that's low, but I'm an optimist; it's probably a pretty good prediction.  

This is exactly right. People get so PO’ed about a Bills line haven’t the faintest idea about how Vegas works or what the handicappers are trying to accomplish. They aren’t Bills “haters” claiming that the Dolphins are 6 points better than the Bills, or whatever. Stop taking it that way.

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9 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 The offense is a different story. It sucked last year, and will likely suck this year...at least to start. Daboll is the huge difference here as I think he can get McCarron or Peterman or Allen to get the ball out quick to receivers

 

i don't understand this notion that out O will be bad this year.  I get it was bad last year..  However, we did dump the component holding us back, Hotrod.  How could we not improve?

 

I Look for our O to h ave the same emphasis on ball control and perhaps even 2015/2016 emphasis on the run game.  D will handle their side so we won't need 30 points and 300 yards passing to win.

 

so if our D does improve and our O improves a little bit, PLAYOFFS AGAIN BABY !!  Thats how I see it.I really don't care  care what this Yahoo click whore types.

 

 

Not sure how this vid got here and i can't delete it. It is a good one though.

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1 hour ago, Doc said:

That he slams the Bills for making the playoffs shows he's a moron. 

 

...there is safety as you type from under your desk and never have to admit how wrong you were.........credibility remains intact......how come?.......

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I dont see the concerns at OL and WR.  Not saying they will be great units but compared to last year I believe the WR core will be better.  The OL lost Wood a couple of years ago and Groy stepped in and there was no notable falloff.  Also a 4 year starter have ben brought in at center.  Richie may not be so easy to replace but at 35 there was no guarantee that his play would stay the same.  

 

The biggest question on O will be the QB play. Could it be much worse?  The team was was 27 in TDs and 31 in yards.  

 

 

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13 minutes ago, artmalibu said:

I dont see the concerns at OL and WR.  Not saying they will be great units but compared to last year I believe the WR core will be better.  The OL lost Wood a couple of years ago and Groy stepped in and there was no notable falloff.  Also a 4 year starter have ben brought in at center.  Richie may not be so easy to replace but at 35 there was no guarantee that his play would stay the same.  

 

The biggest question on O will be the QB play. Could it be much worse?  The team was was 27 in TDs and 31 in yards.  

 

 

 

The 4 year starter was offered back up money, and his current team was happy to let him go...

 

The OL might turn out Ok, but I think people can have concerns with the loss of a couple of decent players from last year and some questionable replacements brought in...

 

 

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49 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

...there is safety as you type from under your desk and never have to admit how wrong you were.........credibility remains intact......how come?.......

 

Because no one holds them accountable. 

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Just now, Doc said:

 

Because no one holds them accountable. 

 

It's not about accuracy, it's about clicks/views.  Best example is the ESPN Power Rankings.  Every week there are one or two WTF positionings, not because they believe the teams should be there.  Rather so that people will be outraged and load up that 'Comments' section.

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3 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Because no one holds them accountable. 

 

 

...pretty sad isn't it Doc?....I'd bet Huntley, Brinkley, Murrow and Cronkite all asked to be moved down to 12 feet from their current 6 feet out of embarrassment.......a once great bastion of journalists are more appropriately "urinalists"today IMO....NO accountability period........

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20 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

The 4 year starter was offered back up money, and his current team was happy to let him go...

 

The OL might turn out Ok, but I think some people can have concerns with the loss of some decent players from last year and some questionable replacements brought in...

 

Change should always bring some concern, I get that.  But at the end of the day they have guys on the roster who have been ok.  Groy was able to step in for Wood and when Miller started for the Bills they were the #1 in rushing.  Its not like plan "A" is to start 2 rookies.  

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35 minutes ago, The Red King said:

 

It's not about accuracy, it's about clicks/views.  Best example is the ESPN Power Rankings.  Every week there are one or two WTF positionings, not because they believe the teams should be there.  Rather so that people will be outraged and load up that 'Comments' section.

 

Exactly.

 

This is how the internet works.

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Oh my god! Is this what I did when I was homer?  Just blindly attack writer’s opinions who didn’t say the Bills were awesome???

 

1) I hated the Allen pick because the overwhelming evidence is Qbs like him with his shortcomings fail at the nfl level at an insane rate.  It’s a pick that either the Bills are complete geniuses or the biggest morons for choosing a guy who couldn’t complete 57% at Wyoming,  

 

2). Benjamin was a former 1st rounder who is a monster.  Carolina wasn’t exactly loaded with receivers when they traded him.  His production has gone down every year and he makes Sammy look durable.

 

even when he was really healthy, he wasn’t great at getting separation.  If you can’t get separation in this league, your days are number. See Dez Bryant.

 

3). Zay had a disappointing rookie season to be kind.  I won’t give up on a second year wr yet but his offseason wasn’t exactly off to a good start.

 

the rest of the wrs are scrapheap players.  It blows my mind they didn’t take a chance on a chance on a high upside receiver late in the draft.

 

4) McCoy is a monster but he is approaching that age where rbs fall off a cliff.  Add to that defenses will have zero respect for the Bills receivers’ speed and there will be little room for him to operate.

 

5) they are already on their 2nd OC in two years because they had a disaster last year.  I know some people want to blame Tyrod for everything and he certainly his faults, but they forced a square peg into a round hole.  The new OC doesn’t exactly have an amazing resume plus went to St. Francis yuck. :)

 

we we have a defensive coach who has the final say on personnel decisions.  I will blindly trust them on defense.  But their offensive evaluations hasn’t been great so far.  If we win this year, it will be a lot like the Jauron ball we played last year.  

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12 hours ago, Midwest1981 said:

Evan Silva, a notorious critic of Josh Allen ("notorious critic" is kind), as well as practically every move the Bills made this offseason, is absolutely in the camp that Buffalo is a bonafide contender for the top overall pick in 2019.  His opinion isn't isolated, as evidenced by the MMQB article that has Buffalo going 2-14.  I personally DO expect a down year, given the shuffled offensive line, a WR/TE core that most Bills' fans admit can be improved upon, and a brutal schedule- particularly in the first-half (5 road games; 3 home games are against quality teams in the Chargers, Titans, and Patriots).  But this merciless analysis has to represent a worst-case scenario...

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/80384/59/offseason-low-down

 

Some excerpts (notice that "made the Playoffs" is in quotes):

 

"The Bills traded up for Josh Allen at No. 7 despite a preponderance of evidence suggesting he is a low-probability prospect, most notably inaccuracy quantifiable by Allen’s low completion rates at every level of football and lack of college dominance, where Allen failed to beat out Packers rookie camp arm Nick Stevens (Colorado State) and projected 2019 7th-round/UDFA Brett Rypien (Boise State) for all-Mountain West honors. Allen’s howitzer arm and 86th-percentile athleticism give him upside in the same way Jake Locker, Kyle Boller, JaMarcus Russell, DeShone Kizer, and Paxton Lynch's did. When Allen does play – and he is likely to see the field this year – he’ll have to overcome the NFL’s least-talented supporting cast. Nevertheless, the fact that Allen is likely to make ten-plus starts as a rookie puts him on two-quarterback-league radars.


Kelvin Benjamin was acquired by Buffalo for a 2018 third-round pick last Halloween. He predictably made minimal impact as a Bill, scoring one touchdown and clearing 45 yards once in seven games. Benjamin battled a series of knee injuries in Carolina and continued to in Buffalo, tearing his meniscus a month after the trade and requiring offseason surgery. Benjamin doesn’t get open, can’t create after the catch, has always been inefficient with his targets, and has bad knees. Not only has Josh Hermsmeyer’s Game Speed data shown Benjamin runs at a league-basement pace for his position, Next Gen Stats revealed Benjamin’s speed was below average for tight ends last year. Next Gen also ranked Benjamin dead last and second to last in yards of separation at target in each of the last two years. In what projects as a poor Bills passing game, Benjamin’s lone fantasy appeal is projected target volume. 


2018 Vegas Win Total

The Bills’ Win Total opened at 6.5 with -130 odds on the over. Perhaps aimed at capturing public bettors who recall the Bills “making the playoffs,” it was a surprisingly high total for a team that finished 2017 with a -57 point differential and went a regression-bound 6-2 in one-score games. Buffalo “made the playoffs” due to the weakness of the AFC and a few lucky ball bounces. A game-winning 49-yard touchdown by Bengals WR Tyler Boyd bounced the Ravens from the postseason in Week 17, while the Chargers were a far superior team. The Bills have the least talent in the AFC East, and their non-division slate consists of the rising AFC South, tough NFC North, Chargers (home), and Ravens (away). Buffalo half-stepped its 2017 tank and accidentally ran into an ultimately-detrimental Wild Card berth. I’m taking under 6.5 wins, and wagering the Bills don’t make that mistake again."

 

 

I expect this coaching staff to have the team ready/prepared and compete every week  no matter who we play ,  I have no idea how many games will win , but I remember this time last year these so called experts were pretty much saying the same thing , 

 

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1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

 

4) McCoy is a monster but he is approaching that age where rbs fall off a cliff.  Add to that defenses will have zero respect for the Bills receivers’ speed and there will be little room for him to operate.

 

 

A few defences came out and said the key to beating the Bills is to make TT be a QB, nothing was said about covering the slow receivers.  

 

 

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I’m sorry but the coaching is way too good and the talent level is too high, even with our holes, to go 2-14.

 

Absolute worst case scenario i can see us going 6-10 and that’s with a good amount of injuries and all QB’a being horrible. 

 

6-10 as an absolute worst case scenario can also be said probably about 15-20 teams in this league as well. 

 

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11 minutes ago, artmalibu said:

 

A few defences came out and said the key to beating the Bills is to make TT be a QB, nothing was said about covering the slow receivers.  

 

 

Oh I agree with the Tyrod point.  But it was much easier to make Tyrod being a qb with our receivers last year than with Watkins and Woods.  Our qbs are complete unknowns and on paper, it doesn’t seem like our wrs will elevate them.

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16 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Oh I agree with the Tyrod point.  But it was much easier to make Tyrod being a qb with our receivers last year than with Watkins and Woods.  Our qbs are complete unknowns and on paper, it doesn’t seem like our wrs will elevate them.

 

 

And with those guys in 2016 the Bills were 30th in passing yards....

 

The Pats are going into 2018 with Hogan as their primary deep threat and there doesnt seem to be any concern about that.

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2 minutes ago, artmalibu said:

 

 

And with those guys in 2016 the Bills were 30th in passing yards....

 

The Pats are going into 2018 with Hogan as their primary deep threat and there doesnt seem to be any concern about that.

I don’t think we are really arguing about anything.  Tyrod wasn’t a good passing qb. AJ McCarron was sitting as a free agent for a while.  He’s only played for one of the greatest college teams ever and a few games for a loaded Cincy team (they only lost one game when Dalton got hurt that year and had a top 5 receiving core). Allen facing a huge learning curve.  And our wrs might be he worse in the nfl.  Not really a stretch to think this team might struggle offensively.

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