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A Bone-Chilling Draft Review


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Trying to conclusively grade a draft before anyone takes a snap in a regular season game is akin to judging someone on buying a pack of trading cards before the pack is even open.  All you can judge is...did teams adddess points of need.  You cannot judge how well they did so.  Buffalo got a high-pick QB...their most glaring need.  They nabbed a linebacker, also high need and a defensive tackle which is will be a need with Williams retiring soon.  As such, I think it looks like an outstanding draft.  As to how well these specific players will actually fill the holes...that's impossible to tell right now.  Too early.

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PFF is good for advanced metrics and stats but it’s grades are useless because you can’t accurately grade a player if you don’t know the play call,line call, route combinations, and individual jobs on the play

 

too many variables 

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6 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

PFF is good for advanced metrics and stats but it’s grades are useless because you can’t accurately grade a player if you don’t know the play call,line call, route combinations, and individual jobs on the play

 

too many variables 

 

Analytics are just a tool. They aren’t a substitute for watching film. They are often used here with no context or common sense.

Edited by Sky Diver
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8 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

...wasn't it PFF who voted Miller as the 2nd most improved in 2016 which many have torched?......are they reliable or does anybody care?.....

Nobody cares.

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2 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

 

Analytics are just a tool. They aren’t a substitute for watching film. They are often used here with no context or common sense.

 

Even watching film a scout/evaluator  must be on his game

 

i couldn’t tell you how many times I was breaking down film and someone says look at corner X, he just got toasted off the line . QB Z missed him bad

 

and I’m like slow down and watch the play for 2 more seconds. It’s clealry a soft cover 2 shell and he let the WR run by him to bait the QB with the safety 

 

Who knows how PFF would look at that. As a blown man assignment or as good cover 2 ball

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Everyone is entitled to their opinion

 

One thing I do not agree with in their evaluation

 

Allen.....good when he had good players around him

Allen.....drop off when he lost those players

Their theory.....does not hold water because the defenses were not good players

 

IF PLAYERS DROP BALLS THAT HIT THEM RIGHT IN THE HANDS THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE QB THROWING IT OR THE DEFENSES FACED....THEY ARE SIMPLY DROPPING THE BALLS

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I am not an expert, but I have watched every single game Josh Allen played in at Wyoming. I don't understand how anyone can watch his games and and put together a critique like this without the following disclaimer:

 

*** His O-line was an absolutely pathetic, leaking sieve and the guy was running for his life for 2 years.

 

Hopefully we get him better protection than he had at Wyoming.

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I like checking on PFF stats and I do believe in a lot of instances it can be useful, but to claim that NFL teams and scouts are going by your "draft guide" to make their picks is complete bullsh*t. :lol: If that were the case you wouldn't be posting youtube videos, you would actually be on an NFL staff somewhere. 

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1 minute ago, H2o said:

I like checking on PFF stats and I do believe in a lot of instances it can be useful, but to claim that NFL teams and scouts are going by your "draft guide" to make their picks is complete bullsh*t. :lol: If that were the case you wouldn't be posting youtube videos, you would actually be on an NFL staff somewhere. 

 

I didn’t even watch the video lol did they really say teams use their “draft guide “ lol

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The evaluation of the draft will rise or fall with how Josh Allen ends up doing in his career.  I actually hope that he does not play too much this year because whoever the QB is will likely face some adversity.  It might be wise not to throw Josh in the fire.

 

The Bills gave up a lot to make all of the moves they did to be able to pick him (starting with the trade last year).  Allen clearly is not the darling of the analytics people whereas Baker Mayfield is.  Allen can make throws that few people can make and struggles with some throws nearly every professional QB can make consistently.

 

I am not sure how many drops he had (I have read some who claim that this is overstated). On the other hand, if he had only completed 10 more passes, he would have had a 60% completion rate. 

 

10 more completions is not so many.

 

I have no idea whether Josh Allen will end up being the "franchise QB" we have been waiting for, but I am willing to give him a chance when he is ready to play (whenever that is) . . . as we all should.  He seems like a good guy and he has embraced Buffalo.

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Just now, Buffalo716 said:

 

I didn’t even watch the video lol did they really say teams use their “draft guide “ lol

Yes, in a round about way by saying you can kind of see teams looked like they were going by it and that it was in circulation among NFL scouts. :lol:

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I can't believe people actually care about this stuff.

 

What makes these people's opinions better or more valuable than yours?

 

When these kids suit up for the Bills, you can make your own educated opinion.

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17 minutes ago, H2o said:

Yes, in a round about way by saying you can kind of see teams looked like they were going by it and that it was in circulation among NFL scouts. :lol:

Yep its because PFF has many more resources available to them then any NFL team could ever dream of having lol. 

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47 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Everyone is entitled to their opinion

 

One thing I do not agree with in their evaluation

 

Allen.....good when he had good players around him

Allen.....drop off when he lost those players

Their theory.....does not hold water because the defenses were not good players

 

IF PLAYERS DROP BALLS THAT HIT THEM RIGHT IN THE HANDS THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE QB THROWING IT OR THE DEFENSES FACED....THEY ARE SIMPLY DROPPING THE BALLS

Allen didn't have a high drop rate compared to other top QBs in this draft

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26 minutes ago, Peter said:

The evaluation of the draft will rise or fall with how Josh Allen ends up doing in his career.  I actually hope that he does not play too much this year because whoever the QB is will likely face some adversity.  It might be wise not to throw Josh in the fire.

 

The Bills gave up a lot to make all of the moves they did to be able to pick him (starting with the trade last year).  Allen clearly is not the darling of the analytics people whereas Baker Mayfield is.  Allen can make throws that few people can make and struggles with some throws nearly every professional QB can make consistently.

 

I am not sure how many drops he had (I have read some who claim that this is overstated). On the other hand, if he had only completed 10 more passes, he would have had a 60% completion rate. 

 

10 more completions is not so many.

 

I have no idea whether Josh Allen will end up being the "franchise QB" we have been waiting for, but I am willing to give him a chance when he is ready to play (whenever that is) . . . as we all should.  He seems like a good guy and he has embraced Buffalo.

...and I wish we drafted one that most people weren't afraid to "throw into the fire"

Sure, every rookie is going to have growing pains. I just see a lot of excuses being made for Allen before even one snap.

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Tell that to someone who hasnt actually watched the games

 

I did

So where was he ranked in drop rate?

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2 minutes ago, Chemical said:

...and I wish we drafted one that most people weren't afraid to "throw into the fire"

Sure, every rookie is going to have growing pains. I just see a lot of excuses being made for Allen before even one snap.

So where was he ranked in drop rate?

I dont CARE where he was ranked in drop rate just like I dont care about his accuracy rating

 

Both are very skewed

 

Allen makes NFL throws....not dink and dunk passes that look good in the completion ratings

 

Allen's receivers either drop balls that hit them right in the hands.....or couldnt gain separation and get to spots on the the field to actually make plays on the ball

 

And frankly you need look no further in that proof for where he either played his best year in 2016 when he played with draftable talent  or when he actually played with NFL draftable talent at the Senior bowl and was making anticipation throws

 

 

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1 hour ago, GreggTX said:

It seems the folks at PFF don't think very highly of our draft at all. Your response?

 

The Bills review starts at about 2:45 in from the start.

 

Keep in mind PFF is really driven by fantasy football.  As such, they're very driven by stats, and interesting in which stats they give most weight to.

 

They had Tyrod Taylor as the #12 QB in the NFL last year, ahead of Mariota, Stafford, Winston, Prescott, Goff, Cousins, and Carr and just behind Aaron Rodgers.

They had our OL ranked #7 this year and #11 last year, despite dropping from 5.3 ypa to 4.1 ypa in rushing, staying at the bottom in passing, and giving up (I think) 10% more sacks against the starter.

 

If you agree with those things, then you probably like their rating of our draft.  If you don't agree with that, then you probably want to print it out and use it for bird-cage liner.

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1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

IF PLAYERS DROP BALLS THAT HIT THEM RIGHT IN THE HANDS THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE QB THROWING IT OR THE DEFENSES FACED....THEY ARE SIMPLY DROPPING THE BALLS

 

Oh sorry I thought you might care about the drop rate, probably because of this sentence. My bad, never mind then.

 

I'm just saying it's not very logical to point out Allen's receivers' drops, but ignore the other QBs receivers' drops. 

 

But if all you're saying is he will or can be good in the NFL then I'm on board.

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4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Keep in mind PFF is really driven by fantasy football.  As such, they're very driven by stats, and interesting in which stats they give most weight to.

 

They had Tyrod Taylor as the #12 QB in the NFL last year, ahead of Mariota, Stafford, Winston, Prescott, Goff, Cousins, and Carr and just behind Aaron Rodgers.

They had our OL ranked #7 this year and #11 last year, despite dropping from 5.3 ypa to 4.1 ypa in rushing, staying at the bottom in passing, and giving up (I think) 10% more sacks against the starter.

 

If you agree with those things, then you probably like their rating of our draft.  If you don't agree with that, then you probably want to print it out and use it for bird-cage liner.

This is a prime example of what I am talking about as well. Does anyone here HONESTLY believe that Tyrod is the #12 QB in the NFL? 

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Just now, Chemical said:

 

Oh sorry I thought you might care about the drop rate, probably because of this sentence. My bad, never mind then.

 

I'm just saying it's not very logical to point out Allen's receivers' drops, but ignore the other QBs receivers' drops. 

 

But if all you're saying is he will or can be good in the NFL then I'm on board.

That is not what I am saying dont put words in my mouth

I am saying

 

a.  Allens throws are downfield NFL throws (you know the kind that by nature have a less accurate catch rate)

b.  Allen's receivers drop balls.....or they dont gain separation and get to spots on the field to get to the spot on the field they need to be...you know cuz they suck?

c.  I dont care about other qbs stats...they are not my qb.....some people care because their qb didnt get drafted (I am assuming you are in this camp)

d.  When Allen actually played with talented players...his numbers were in fact a lot better which tells its own story

 

Is this logical to you?

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4 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

That is not what I am saying dont put words in my mouth

I am saying

 

a.  Allens throws are downfield NFL throws (you know the kind that by nature have a less accurate catch rate)

b.  Allen's receivers drop balls.....or they dont gain separation and get to spots on the field to get to the spot on the field they need to be...you know cuz they suck?

c.  I dont care about other qbs stats...they are not my qb.....some people care because their qb didnt get drafted (I am assuming you are in this camp)

d.  When Allen actually played with talented players...his numbers were in fact a lot better which tells its own story

 

Is this logical to you?

yes

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1 minute ago, Fadingpain said:

Dare I suggest that had it been a glowing review, it would have been cited as a "good article" and no one would be discussing the validity of information found on the internet.

 

:lol:

 

:thumbdown:

Find the stuff you can when you can Fading

 

Something tells me its about to get smaller

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I remember the great Demitris Bell argument a while back. When they had him ad a leading LT and the Bills' O-line graded very high that year, I grew tired of PFF. They are good for stats, but don't show the entire picture, and it is evident.

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6 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

Dare I suggest that had it been a glowing review, it would have been cited as a "good article" and no one would be discussing the validity of information found on the internet.

 

:lol:

 

:thumbdown:

By some, 'yes'.  By others, 'no'.  Many of us realize we have to see how the season(s) play out.

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