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My Relook at Josh Allen


MAJBobby

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If anyone here had QB discussions this time last year with me they would have heard that Josh Allen was my top QB on the board.  So I went back and looked at my work that I did the lead up to this draft and the last to see why for this draft he wasn't the top QB on the board was it because others were just better or was it because of something I missed.  So here are some of the things that I have on him that make me feel good and things on why I feel bad.  Either way as I have said like any QB Josh Allen is not my hope for being the answer for 20-26 starts, I am hoping he can fix the negatives on him in the NFL, which is something he did not do in College.

 

So the reason he was my NO 1 QB this time last year is the tools are there (it was a projection ranking at that point) however I was expecting to see a step forward this year in his play and instead that step never came.  Now unlike Darnold (who took a step back this year) Allen remained the same, remaining the same though pushed him down my board this year because others improved like Rosen and Mayfield.  Now mind you how I have Allen graded this year is a top 15 player, and he was my third QB in the class.  However because of the non step forward he is also the highest bust risk out of the QBs as well. 

 

So I wanted to specifically look at the inaccuracy over since I heard Allen say that he self scouted and a lot of the inaccurate throws are traced to his base (this would be a good thing because base fixing is easier to do then arm motion (throwing motion) problems.  First thing is his ball placement was really bad when he was on the move.  I expected this actually because typically big armed QBs think they can do everything with their arm, and do not use proper feet and square up while throwing on the move.  Also the other thing I noticed while on the move he is typically throwing more lower percentage throws looking for the big play instead of taking the easy throw. 

 

Second thing I noticed and is typical of big armed QBs (Elway and Farve had the issue as well) they throw EVERYTHING hard.  Much like a golfer when you try to hit the not off the ball every swing QB is similar the harder you throw the harder it is for pin point ball placement.  He needs to learn touch.  Now having a big arm is a good thing but it is also a curse there was a good number of throws he should not have made (completions too) but because he is uber confident in his arm he will try to fit it, that will hurt the Comp %, however watching a lot of these throws the ball placement itself wasn't very horrible. 

 

Third His Base does need work.  His feet drift while in the pocket and does not stay throw ready, this happened less in 2016 than 2017 but it was still there both years.  Also even with a clean pocket he defaults to off platform throws, there is time to set his feet and deliver a strike but he wouldn't do it I think it is because of how strong his arm is I do not think by looking at him he was ever really taught a proper base (feet through hips) of QB play, but still make every throw because of his arm.  He is a lot like Jackson in this issue where his scattershot ball placement comes from his base.  Now the good thing the throwing base can be fixed so that should give some hope his accuracy will improve. 

 

Now another thing that showed his ball placement is not all bad on intermediate routes 10-20 yards when he sets his feet properly he is on TGT with every throw.  So is he can place it in the window on these throws his short accuracy (which suffers because he gets lazy with his feet) will improve fixing those feet. 

 

So where am I with him?  The same place I was last year hoping he takes that step and actually fixes his base.  I personally would love him not to play at all this year and have the Bills focus on fixing this issue.  If he can fix his base and majority of throws are they way they are in the 10-20 yard range in terms of precision when he has proper feet placement (both in 2016 and 2017) Bills might have just hit a homerun.  Either way Josh you have 20-26 starts to show me what I wanted to see during the 2017 season.

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Just now, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

So in summary... you’re all about that base 

Yeah pretty much, I was actually really glad to see it wasn't a motion thing or a processing thing.  Fix his feet (it can be done) and that accuracy will improve.

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That was a really nice write up. Thank you. 

 

I think by and large a lot more people would have been fine with Allen had Rosen not been on the board or had Allen fell to 12. It is what it is though. With at least some of the issues being possibly correctable I think it may just be ok.

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Nice write up. I was very anti-Allen before the draft, but now that we have him, I have also gone back and looked at him.

 

im liking the pick more today than yesterday. If the Bills handle him correctly, he really cold be a long term franchise QB for them.

 

Im going to be cautiously optimistic now instead of hating the pick.

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i just think it is a little ugly that everyone is so down on the young man.  I am going to get behind JA and welcome him to the Bills with the love we have to show our team.  

If he betrays our trust he deserves disdain, not before.

 

If he proves incapable, then he will leave quietly.   

 

But to be so angry and mean spirited before the young QB even takes a snap is untoward and not the way I see the Bills Mafia in my heart.

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35 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Yeah pretty much, I was actually really glad to see it wasn't a motion thing or a processing thing.  Fix his feet (it can be done) and that accuracy will improve.

 

Great thread MAJBobby, thanks.

I have a question if you got time.

A lot of what you said in your OP was talked about in Allen's Pro Day, Combine and Senior Bowl.

He was working with Palmer about 2 of your stated "issues".

The base and touch passes.

 

Have you had a chance to look at his throwing after his instructions with Palmer?

I know Pro Day and Combine are shirt sleeves but I do remember many pundits talking how much he improved in the Senior Bowl.

 

It seems to me if he could of started to correct some of these things it would relieve some angst many have about him (including myself).

 

In a "hopeful speculation" on my part, I hope with Allen's limited playing time that these tendencies are not too engrained and he can change

easier than say EJ.  EJ seemed unable to adapt to changes and only got worse overall.

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51 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

If anyone here had QB discussions this time last year with me they would have heard that Josh Allen was my top QB on the board.  So I went back and looked at my work that I did the lead up to this draft and the last to see why for this draft he wasn't the top QB on the board was it because others were just better or was it because of something I missed.  So here are some of the things that I have on him that make me feel good and things on why I feel bad.  Either way as I have said like any QB Josh Allen is not my hope for being the answer for 20-26 starts, I am hoping he can fix the negatives on him in the NFL, which is something he did not do in College.

 

So the reason he was my NO 1 QB this time last year is the tools are there (it was a projection ranking at that point) however I was expecting to see a step forward this year in his play and instead that step never came.  Now unlike Darnold (who took a step back this year) Allen remained the same, remaining the same though pushed him down my board this year because others improved like Rosen and Mayfield.  Now mind you how I have Allen graded this year is a top 15 player, and he was my third QB in the class.  However because of the non step forward he is also the highest bust risk out of the QBs as well. 

 

So I wanted to specifically look at the inaccuracy over since I heard Allen say that he self scouted and a lot of the inaccurate throws are traced to his base (this would be a good thing because base fixing is easier to do then arm motion (throwing motion) problems.  First thing is his ball placement was really bad when he was on the move.  I expected this actually because typically big armed QBs think they can do everything with their arm, and do not use proper feet and square up while throwing on the move.  Also the other thing I noticed while on the move he is typically throwing more lower percentage throws looking for the big play instead of taking the easy throw. 

 

Second thing I noticed and is typical of big armed QBs (Elway and Farve had the issue as well) they throw EVERYTHING hard.  Much like a golfer when you try to hit the not off the ball every swing QB is similar the harder you throw the harder it is for pin point ball placement.  He needs to learn touch.  Now having a big arm is a good thing but it is also a curse there was a good number of throws he should not have made (completions too) but because he is uber confident in his arm he will try to fit it, that will hurt the Comp %, however watching a lot of these throws the ball placement itself wasn't very horrible. 

 

Third His Base does need work.  His feet drift while in the pocket and does not stay throw ready, this happened less in 2016 than 2017 but it was still there both years.  Also even with a clean pocket he defaults to off platform throws, there is time to set his feet and deliver a strike but he wouldn't do it I think it is because of how strong his arm is I do not think by looking at him he was ever really taught a proper base (feet through hips) of QB play, but still make every throw because of his arm.  He is a lot like Jackson in this issue where his scattershot ball placement comes from his base.  Now the good thing the throwing base can be fixed so that should give some hope his accuracy will improve. 

 

Now another thing that showed his ball placement is not all bad on intermediate routes 10-20 yards when he sets his feet properly he is on TGT with every throw.  So is he can place it in the window on these throws his short accuracy (which suffers because he gets lazy with his feet) will improve fixing those feet. 

 

So where am I with him?  The same place I was last year hoping he takes that step and actually fixes his base.  I personally would love him not to play at all this year and have the Bills focus on fixing this issue.  If he can fix his base and majority of throws are they way they are in the 10-20 yard range in terms of precision when he has proper feet placement (both in 2016 and 2017) Bills might have just hit a homerun.  Either way Josh you have 20-26 starts to show me what I wanted to see during the 2017 season.

 

 

Jordan Palmer who has been working with Allen - said some of the same things.  He praised him for how hard he was working on his footwork and how much his accuracy improved.  He also raved about his work ethic and his sense of humor.

 

I really think that once he gets NFL coaching and guys working specifically on those issues - you will see improvement.  Does that mean he will be a star - NO, but I also think he has the ability to improve - so let’s see what happens.

6 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Great thread MAJBobby, thanks.

I have a question if you got time.

A lot of what you said in your OP was talked about in Allen's Pro Day, Combine and Senior Bowl.

He was working with Palmer about 2 of your stated "issues".

The base and touch passes.

 

Have you had a chance to look at his throwing after his instructions with Palmer?

I know Pro Day and Combine are shirt sleeves but I do remember many pundits talking how much he improved in the Senior Bowl.

 

It seems to me if he could of started to correct some of these things it would relieve some angst many have about him (including myself).

 

In a "hopeful speculation" on my part, I hope with Allen's limited playing time that these tendencies are not too engrained and he can change

easier than say EJ.  EJ seemed unable to adapt to changes and only got worse overall.

 

Palmer did say his accuracy improved greatly working on his footwork and praised his hard work.

 

He also said he had an amazing arm and was someone he thought had huge potential.

 

Of course it is his client, but he heaped praise on him over a guy like Darnold that was also his client.

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The Soul and Science video with him had his release time at .38, which is on par with elite QB's like Tom Brady. I'm encouraged by that.

 

Also he was throwing 74 mph balls. Insane.

 

If he can fix his lower body mechanics he has serious potential. We'll see, though.

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11 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

 

Jordan Palmer who has been working with Allen - said some of the same things.  He praised him for how hard he was working on his footwork and how much his accuracy improved.  He also raved about his work ethic and his sense of humor.

 

I really think that once he gets NFL coaching and guys working specifically on those issues - you will see improvement.  Does that mean he will be a star - NO, but I also think he has the ability to improve - so let’s see what happens.

 

Palmer did say his accuracy improved greatly working on his footwork and praised his hard work.

 

He also said he had an amazing arm and was someone he thought had huge potential.

 

Of course it is his client, but he heaped praise on him over a guy like Darnold that was also his client.

 

That's why I asked MAJBobby (or anyone else who can tell) if he seen a change.

 

If Palmer did help significantly, would not it be wise to consider him as a personal coach and get Pegula to write a check?

Hell, bring him in and have him help all our QB's periodically.

Edited by ColoradoBills
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3 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

That's why I asked MAJBobby (or anyone else who can tell) if he seen a change.

 

If Palmer did help significantly, would not it be wise to consider him as a personal coach and get Pegula to write a check?

Hell, bring him in and have him help all our QB's periodically.

 

Cornfed will have a $25m fully guaranteed contract for 4 years,I think he can afford a personal trainer ;)

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6 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

That's why I asked MAJBobby (or anyone else who can tell) if he seen a change.

 

If Palmer did help significantly, would not it be wise to consider him as a personal coach and get Pegula to write a check?

Hell, bring him in and have him help all our QB's periodically.

 

I think Allen would love that, but Palmer has a business training these guys to get ready for the NFL and it sounds like that is his love - not sure we could get him, but I would love it if he wanted to be a QB coach even on the side.

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2 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Fine, as long as OBD is involved.

 

FWIW, Cornfed's Dad grows cotton and cantaloupes. 

 

I know but Cornfed has a way better ring to it than Cotton mouth or Cantaloupe head  ;)

Edited by JMF2006
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14 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

I think Allen would love that, but Palmer has a business training these guys to get ready for the NFL and it sounds like that is his love - not sure we could get him, but I would love it if he wanted to be a QB coach even on the side.

 

 

 

Josh Allen says Jordan Palmer will remain a mentor, but #Bills QB coach David Culley and OC Brian Daboll are the main voice now.

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Maybe I’m just drinking the kool-aid, or forcing myself to live with it because the other option would end in rehab, but I am getting on the bandwagon looking back at some of his tape and listening to what people with more tape watching experience have to say about him. So far this coaching staff and front office have been doing well in terms of picking and coaching, so if they see something in him then I am willing to have an unbiased view of him. I’ll keep an open mind until proven otherwise. I really, really want him to succeed because this team can’t take another failure. So it’s probably in the best interest of the team, coaches and Allen for the fans to at least give this kid a serious chance and support him and endure the growing pains without making it rough on him by preconceived notions and media biting. 

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44 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Great thread MAJBobby, thanks.

I have a question if you got time.

A lot of what you said in your OP was talked about in Allen's Pro Day, Combine and Senior Bowl.

He was working with Palmer about 2 of your stated "issues".

The base and touch passes.

 

Have you had a chance to look at his throwing after his instructions with Palmer?

I know Pro Day and Combine are shirt sleeves but I do remember many pundits talking how much he improved in the Senior Bowl.

 

It seems to me if he could of started to correct some of these things it would relieve some angst many have about him (including myself).

 

In a "hopeful speculation" on my part, I hope with Allen's limited playing time that these tendencies are not too engrained and he can change

easier than say EJ.  EJ seemed unable to adapt to changes and only got worse overall.

 

No most of my looking at him was actually pads on games. I did watch his proday too. From what i saw there he is improved. Had a better base, slower movemt which looked like more touch passes. I really have to wait to camp though and see if these changes hold up once pads on and stress is added 

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1 hour ago, No Place To Hyde said:

That was a really nice write up. Thank you. 

 

I think by and large a lot more people would have been fine with Allen had Rosen not been on the board or had Allen fell to 12. It is what it is though. With at least some of the issues being possibly correctable I think it may just be ok.

^ Truest sentiment ever... I wanted Rosen and when they were both there, I wanted him more... However, I would have been equally comfortable had we gotten Allen at 12. In hindsight, I'm not mad we traded up to get one of them however, it just was not the one I had in mind. All is not for loss though because the silver lining in everything is that Miami was snaked by the Cardinals. Which means that we will not have to compare our choice of 'Joshua' 2x a yr for the next decade and have that comparison directly affect our playoff implications via division and conference influence... 

 

My big gripe is I wanted to watch some 'action' in rd. 2 and I would have liked at least one of those back right now but they are a front office for a reason so I trust it.

 

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1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

Yeah pretty much, I was actually really glad to see it wasn't a motion thing or a processing thing.  Fix his feet (it can be done) and that accuracy will improve.

I am glad that Allen has been working on it too. He sounded like a pro (outside of the DuDeS) in the presser. Love the work ethic. Both Tremaine and Josh are McD types for sure, that's a good thing!

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3 hours ago, Eric Moulds on my A** said:

I am glad that Allen has been working on it too. He sounded like a pro (outside of the DuDeS) in the presser. Love the work ethic. Both Tremaine and Josh are McD types for sure, that's a good thing!

Yeah I hope that they can fix the issues, not happy though it is Culley and not an actual QB guru helping him.

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19 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

If anyone here had QB discussions this time last year with me they would have heard that Josh Allen was my top QB on the board.  So I went back and looked at my work that I did the lead up to this draft and the last to see why for this draft he wasn't the top QB on the board was it because others were just better or was it because of something I missed.  So here are some of the things that I have on him that make me feel good and things on why I feel bad.  Either way as I have said like any QB Josh Allen is not my hope for being the answer for 20-26 starts, I am hoping he can fix the negatives on him in the NFL, which is something he did not do in College.

 

So the reason he was my NO 1 QB this time last year is the tools are there (it was a projection ranking at that point) however I was expecting to see a step forward this year in his play and instead that step never came.  Now unlike Darnold (who took a step back this year) Allen remained the same, remaining the same though pushed him down my board this year because others improved like Rosen and Mayfield.  Now mind you how I have Allen graded this year is a top 15 player, and he was my third QB in the class.  However because of the non step forward he is also the highest bust risk out of the QBs as well. 

 

So I wanted to specifically look at the inaccuracy over since I heard Allen say that he self scouted and a lot of the inaccurate throws are traced to his base (this would be a good thing because base fixing is easier to do then arm motion (throwing motion) problems.  First thing is his ball placement was really bad when he was on the move.  I expected this actually because typically big armed QBs think they can do everything with their arm, and do not use proper feet and square up while throwing on the move.  Also the other thing I noticed while on the move he is typically throwing more lower percentage throws looking for the big play instead of taking the easy throw. 

 

Second thing I noticed and is typical of big armed QBs (Elway and Farve had the issue as well) they throw EVERYTHING hard.  Much like a golfer when you try to hit the not off the ball every swing QB is similar the harder you throw the harder it is for pin point ball placement.  He needs to learn touch.  Now having a big arm is a good thing but it is also a curse there was a good number of throws he should not have made (completions too) but because he is uber confident in his arm he will try to fit it, that will hurt the Comp %, however watching a lot of these throws the ball placement itself wasn't very horrible. 

 

Third His Base does need work.  His feet drift while in the pocket and does not stay throw ready, this happened less in 2016 than 2017 but it was still there both years.  Also even with a clean pocket he defaults to off platform throws, there is time to set his feet and deliver a strike but he wouldn't do it I think it is because of how strong his arm is I do not think by looking at him he was ever really taught a proper base (feet through hips) of QB play, but still make every throw because of his arm.  He is a lot like Jackson in this issue where his scattershot ball placement comes from his base.  Now the good thing the throwing base can be fixed so that should give some hope his accuracy will improve. 

 

Now another thing that showed his ball placement is not all bad on intermediate routes 10-20 yards when he sets his feet properly he is on TGT with every throw.  So is he can place it in the window on these throws his short accuracy (which suffers because he gets lazy with his feet) will improve fixing those feet. 

 

So where am I with him?  The same place I was last year hoping he takes that step and actually fixes his base.  I personally would love him not to play at all this year and have the Bills focus on fixing this issue.  If he can fix his base and majority of throws are they way they are in the 10-20 yard range in terms of precision when he has proper feet placement (both in 2016 and 2017) Bills might have just hit a homerun.  Either way Josh you have 20-26 starts to show me what I wanted to see during the 2017 season.

 

Some of the things you are saying here are the opposite of what many of the scouts say.  For instance, one of Allens talked about positives is that he is good at throwing on the move, yet here you list it as the first thing you have as a weakness.

 

Seems people see completely different things when looking at him

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19 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

Nice write up. I was very anti-Allen before the draft, but now that we have him, I have also gone back and looked at him.

 

im liking the pick more today than yesterday. If the Bills handle him correctly, he really cold be a long term franchise QB for them.

 

Im going to be cautiously optimistic now instead of hating the pick.

 

Wait a minute...

 

Weren’t you one of the guys on tilt raging against him and any that disliked him but now that you looked at him again yesterday you are optimistic?!? 

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8 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Some of the things you are saying here are the opposite of what many of the scouts say.  For instance, one of Allens talked about positives is that he is good at throwing on the move, yet here you list it as the first thing you have as a weakness.

 

Seems people see completely different things when looking at him

 

Going to his right he is ok because the arm power helps alot being right handed. Going left not so much he doesnt square or properly place his feet. Relies on that arm and ball flies 

13 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Is it true that his surrounding talent hurt him a lot? Or is that overblown?

 

Wr did drop alot. His surrounding talent went down a good amount. I think what hurt him the most is his line. They were not very good and that caused him to move alot. I think it is a legit point but also not as big as some want to make it 

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JR College Stats:

 

DATE OPPONENT SCORE COMP ATT PCT YDS Y/A TD INT SAC YDS
Sep 6 Mendocino W, 37-16 - - - - - - - - -
Sep 13 at San Jose L, 41-36 2 7 28.6% 26 3.7 0 1 0 0
Sep 20 Contra Costa L, 43-38 1 6 16.7% 20 3.3 0 0 0 0
Sep 27 Gavilan W, 44-33 5 16 31.3% 108 6.8 1 0 0 0
Oct 4 at Fresno City L, 49-44 16 25 64.0% 275 11.0 3 1 5 38
Oct 18 at West Hills Coalinga L, 48-43 22 45 48.9% 294 6.5 5 2 6 22
Oct 25 Cabrillo W, 45-10 19 31 61.3% 317 10.2 4 0 0 0
Nov 1 at Merced W, 45-40 28 47 59.6% 470 10.0 7 0 0 0
Nov 8 Hartnell L, 28-24 13 35 37.1% 241 6.9 2 0 7 38
Nov 15 at Monterey L, 43-38 21 47 44.7% 304 6.5 4 1 5 59

His JR College Stats, his college stats. Yes stats are not everything. But I get concerned when a guy does not dominate against weak competition. Playing in that JUCO league he should have lit it up. Playing at Wyo he should have lit it up. 

Passing Rushing Receiving Tackles Fumbles
Rk Year Date School   Opponent   Cmp Att Pct Yds TD Int Rate Att Yds Avg TD Rec Yds Avg TD Solo Ast Tot Loss Sk FR Yds TD FF
17 2017 2017-09-02 Wyoming @ Iowa L 23 40 57.5 174 0 2 84.0 8 -10 -1.3 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0     0
18 2017 2017-09-09 Wyoming   Gardner-Webb W 22 32 68.8 328 2 0 175.5 0 0   0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0     0
19 2017 2017-09-16 Wyoming   Oregon L 9 24 37.5 64 0 1 51.6 8 25 3.1 1 1 2 2.0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0     0
20 2017 2017-09-23 Wyoming   Hawaii W 9 19 47.4 92 1 0 105.4 6 17 2.8 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0     0
21 2017 2017-09-30 Wyoming   Texas State W 14 24 58.3 219 3 0 176.2 8 12 1.5 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0     0
22 2017 2017-10-14 Wyoming @ Utah State W 18 26 69.2 208 1 1 141.4 16 36 2.3 1 0 0   0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0     0
23 2017 2017-10-21 Wyoming @ Boise State L 12 27 44.4 131 1 2 82.6 18 62 3.4 1 0 0   0 0 1 1 0.0 0.0 0     0
24 2017 2017-10-28 Wyoming   New Mexico W 16 28 57.1 234 4 0 174.5 4 20 5.0 1 0 0   0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0     0
25 2017 2017-11-04 Wyoming   Colorado State W 10 20 50.0 138 0 0 108.0 12 60 5.0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0     0
26 2017 2017-11-11 Wyoming @ Air Force W 8 11 72.7 70 1 0 156.2 4 -15 -3.8 1 0 0   0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0     0
27 2017 2017-12-22 Wyoming N Central Michigan* W 11 19 57.9 154 3 0 178.1 8 -3 -0.4 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0     0
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