Report: Bills Unlikely to Trade Up to No. 2 - Rapoport

[BuffaloRebound]

27 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I agree, but the post you respond to is one of those who thinks because all the top qbs have flaws, one can be indifferent as to which of them one ends up with.

 

Not indifferent, but I’m not trading three 1st rounders plus more for Darnold when I can get Rosen, Mayfield or Allen for pick 12 and pick 53. Or even stay put and get Jackson at 12.  We are getting one of those 5.  None of those guys is can’t miss and people a lot smarter than me who do this for a living can’t come to any consensus.  

[BuffaloMatt]

3 hours ago, Chuck Wagon said:

I think we are targeting 1.  If Denver is willing to sell #5, there's no reason we can't package 5 and other picks to go to 1, allow Cleveland Mayfield or Allen (or Rosen as a worst case) and Chubb or Barkley.  Heck, if they don't like the 4th QB if the Giants go QB or trade, they can just take Chubb and Barkley, then draft one of the later QBs.

 

I think we've decided #1 (Darnold) is #1 by a margin and are willing to give it up to make it happen.

Unfortunately, Cleveland wants him too. 

[Carter]

[BuffaloMatt]

4 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Unlikely they are four failed qbs.  If you are waiting for a can't miss, perfect qb, you are going to wait a long, long time.  And even then, unless you are picking 1 overall, you will wait forever.  Historically, top of the draft has a 50% hit rate for qb.  It's considerably lower later on.  This is potentially a very strong qb draft.  Bills set themselves up to take a shot and it's time to do so.  Radical pessimism about the position is a prescription for continual irrelevancy.

selling the farm for 50%. You lose half the time.

[Dr. Who]

6 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

 

Not indifferent, but I’m not trading three 1st rounders plus more for Darnold when I can get Rosen, Mayfield or Allen for pick 12 and pick 53. Or even stay put and get Jackson at 12.  We are getting one of those 5.  None of those guys is can’t miss and people a lot smarter than me who do this for a living can’t come to any consensus.  

If they like Darnold (or someone else) much more than the others, they will trade up high if they can and that will be expensive.  Otherwise, a trade to 6 ought to garner one of the top 4.  I think Jackson is there at 12.  I like Darnold and Allen best and would trade up for either.  Trading up for Allen in particular is an unpopular position, of course.

1 minute ago, BuffaloMatt said:

selling the farm for 50%. You lose half the time.

It's potentially a regime risking decision.  The flip is if you hit, you're in cotton for a decade or more.

[zevo]

1 hour ago, sven233 said:

 

It would be an absolute disaster if we choose Allen over Rosen.  Just brutal.....

And you know this how...please enlighten us

[BuffaloMatt]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

If they like Darnold (or someone else) much more than the others, they will trade up high if they can and that will be expensive.  Otherwise, a trade to 6 ought to garner one of the top 4.  I think Jackson is there at 12.  I like Darnold and Allen best and would trade up for either.  Trading up for Allen in particular is an unpopular position, of course.

It's potentially a regime risking decision.  The flip is if you hit, you're in cotton for a decade or more.

I truly love this sh*t! 

[sven233]

51 minutes ago, zevo said:

And you know this how...please enlighten us

 

Because I have eyes......

 

Look, I have said all along Josh Allen may end up being the best QB in the class.  He has tools that nobody else has.  However, it's about reaching the potential you have and I don't think the physical tools will make up for the deficiencies he has.

 

He is slow to read the field, is constantly late on throws, misses throws that should be routine, bails out of the pocket too early, and doesn't throw with anticipation on a regular basis.  Can some of this be fixed?  For sure.....  But he has a ton of issues and for him to overcome all of them would be a huge ask.  There are other QBs in the draft that all have faults, but the issues the other top guys have are fewer and thus may be easier to correct. 

 

Never once in his football career, from high school through college, has he even come close to having a 60% completion percentage.  Not only has he struggled against good teams, but he has failed to dominate against lesser competition.  I'm sorry, but if you are drafting a guy in the top 5 of the NFL draft, and he has NEVER dominated a season, or even a game, something is wrong.  He has the natural God given physical talent that other QBs dream about having.....  It's everything else that is the problem.  He could work through all of these concerns, but I am ready to have some other team take that chance and find out whether he can or not.

 

Josh Allen could be an all time great......but he has the biggest bust potential in the class in my eyes.  Rosen, Darnold, or Mayfield are much better prospects.  Josh Allen will take a year or 2, at least, before he is ready to see the field, if he ever gets there at all.  If the Bills draft him, I will support him as a Bills fan as we all will, but from the moment he is drafted, the clock starts ticking on Beane every day Allen isn't the starting QB of the Bills.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

2 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

Galko update:

 

http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/news/nfl-draft-rumors-news-2018-josh-rosen-baker-mayfield-seahawks-patriots/we39wjkoszkh1865uxzb1c7fp

 

 Mitchell Trubisky last year was a target of the Bills in a possible trade. Buffalo instead opted not to mortgage its future to move up and get him; it traded down and kicked the can down the road. This year, the Bills’ intention of drafting a quarterback has been clear since the middle of the regular season. They have evaluated Josh Rosen and Josh Allen, and I believe both have been considered throughout the process.

Almost everyone I’ve spoken with believes the Bills will find a way to draft Allen. Assuming he doesn't go first overall, they could do it with a trade up to No. 2, No. 4, No. 5 or No. 6.

 

Final quarterback-team predictions: Darnold-Browns, Mayfield-Jets, Allen-Bills, Rosen-Chargers, Jackson-Saints, Lauletta-Ravens, Rudolph-Jaguars, White-Dolphins, Falk-Patriots, Benkert-Bengals, Marshall’s Chase Litton-Cardinals, Memphis’ Riley Ferguson-Steelers, Toledo’s Logan Woodside-Titans, Ohio State’s JT Barrett-Seahawks, Texas Tech’s Nic Shimonk-Colts, Idaho’s Matt Linehan-Cowboys.

I think he's full of ****. He is the only one who believes that. And, why are the Bills telling him anyway?

[Domdab99]

If Josh Allen succeeds, his GM will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself

[DefenseWins]

1 hour ago, BuffaloMatt said:

selling the farm for 50%. You lose half the time.

 

And the Bills have been losing for the best part of the last 20 YEARS... So????

 

[Bleedingreennc]

Looks like there is going to be a bidding war to move up, apparently the Cardinals are going to make a push to get up as high as possible.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

My guess is the Bills were hot after a top 4 pick until Denver backed out of the QB race. They are ok with Darnold, Mayfield, or Rosen. Acuracy and timing are skills they want their franchise QB to have, they said so when they drafted Peterman. Eliminates Allen. Also want a traditional pocket passer, Eliminates Jackson.

 

With Denver out of the QB race they turned their sites to picks 6-10. That's where they get their QB. It's either Rosen or Mayfield, whatever QB the Jets pass on. Honestly I can't decide which is the better prospect so either one is fine with me.

 

Bills must watch for Arizona, but word is they want Allen.

 

Edited April 24, 2018 by TheTruthHurts

[Roundybout]

17 minutes ago, Bleedingreennc said:

Looks like there is going to be a bidding war to move up, apparently the Cardinals are going to make a push to get up as high as possible.

 

How much do the Cards have to offer anyways? They would have to offer a lot next year to match anything close to what we can, IMO. 

[TheFunPolice]

Beane putting out smoke to flush out whoever wants Allen.

 

They get desperate, trade up and grab Allen, which accomplishes a few things:

 

1) a competitor over spends

2) a QB needy team partners up with a QB you don't want anyway, leaving you one less competitor for your guy

3) you gauge what is going on

[BuffaloHokie13]

3 minutes ago, BillsEnthusiast said:

How much do the Cards have to offer anyways? They would have to offer a lot next year to match anything close to what we can, IMO. 

1 pick in each round this year + a comp pick in the 3rd round.

[thebandit27]

2 hours ago, BuffaloMatt said:

selling the farm for 50%. You lose half the time.

 

So what?

 

At worst, you're picking a QB again in 2020.  Big deal.

 

I can't believe that after all we've seen, there are fans that support the "let's be passive and end up with the guy that nobody else wanted" approach of the last 50 years.

[TheFunPolice]

2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

So what?

 

At worst, you're picking a QB again in 2020.  Big deal.

 

I can't believe that after all we've seen, there are fans that support the "let's be passive and end up with the guy that nobody else wanted" approach of the last 50 years.

 

This X 1000

 

UNLESS Beane truly loves Rudolph or Jackson and knows he can sit there at 12 and just take either. Then it makes sense.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

If Cleveland takes Mayfield I think the Giants take Darnold and the Jets take Rosen. If this does happen then I'm taking Luke Falk in the 3rd rd. With all the game film that I have watched on these QB's I'm 98% sure Mayfield, Darnold and Rosen go 1,2 and 3. I guess this is the price we pay for breaking the playoff streak.

[BuffaloMatt]

3 hours ago, DefenseWins said:

 

And the Bills have been losing for the best part of the last 20 YEARS... So????

 

I guess probability is on our side after last year. Fire away!

3 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

So what?

 

At worst, you're picking a QB again in 2020.  Big deal.

 

I can't believe that after all we've seen, there are fans that support the "let's be passive and end up with the guy that nobody else wanted" approach of the last 50 years.

No. Not passive. Smart. That's all I am asking. Yes, I want a QB, but I also want a team. Brady Quinn might have had a HOF career, just saying, team is important and look at A. Luck while we are at it. Tough to be a QB with a bottom tier team, Bradford. . . . . . 

[ganesh]

what if the Giants trade Eli Manning to Jacksonville for a 1st round pick and then draft Rosen at number 2 with their pick.  This may be a possible scenario on draft day. It would be a big win for the Giants and the Jaguars and a big loss for the Bills, especially if they cannot come any higher to #5 or #6.

[thebandit27]

16 minutes ago, BuffaloMatt said:

I guess probability is on our side after last year. Fire away!

No. Not passive. Smart. That's all I am asking. Yes, I want a QB, but I also want a team. Brady Quinn might have had a HOF career, just saying, team is important and look at A. Luck while we are at it. Tough to be a QB with a bottom tier team, Bradford. . . . . . 

 

So yes, you want to approach the most important position in organized sports with a "let's wait for whoever nobody else wants".

 

I'm sorry, but that's a bad approach.

 

And it pre-supposes that the team somehow won't be able to improve if they give up assets to climb in the draft, which simply isn't true 

 

They have 9 picks in this draft, and 9 picks next year, plus between $75M and $80M in cap space next offseason 

[Foxx]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

 

So yes, you want to approach the most important position in organized sports with a "let's wait for whoever nobody else wants".

 

I'm sorry, but that's a bad approach.

 

And it pre-supposes that the team somehow won't be able to improve if they give up assets to climb in the draft, which simply isn't true 

 

They have 9 picks in this draft, and 9 picks next year, plus between $75M and $80M in cap space next offseason 

if we do not have a good to great team in '19, something will be awfully wrong.

[GG]

The only reason the Giants shouldn't trade out of the #2 spot is if they are picking a QB.  The other top players aren't seen as potential Hall of Famers, so the Giants are dumb not to take up to 3 first round picks for a replacement level player.

[cle23]

5 minutes ago, GG said:

The only reason the Giants shouldn't trade out of the #2 spot is if they are picking a QB.  The other top players aren't seen as potential Hall of Famers, so the Giants are dumb not to take up to 3 first round picks for a replacement level player.

A lot of people see Barkley as a HoF level player, and that is who the Giants are favored to take.

[BuffaloMatt]

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

So yes, you want to approach the most important position in organized sports with a "let's wait for whoever nobody else wants".

 

I'm sorry, but that's a bad approach.

 

And it pre-supposes that the team somehow won't be able to improve if they give up assets to climb in the draft, which simply isn't true 

 

They have 9 picks in this draft, and 9 picks next year, plus between $75M and $80M in cap space next offseason 

I love the Bills. I wish I had the answers. I hope you are right. 

[ganesh]

5 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

1 pick in each round this year + a comp pick in the 3rd round.

Now that would be difficult for a new HC to start his tenure by giving up all his picks this year and a pick next year.  He will be out of a job at end of year #2.

[BuffaloRebound]

I just can’t see Bills trading up to 2 for anyone besides Darnold and I’m not even sure Darnold is worth what it will take to get up there.  I’m fine with Beane waiting it out for Rosen or Allen.    

[Nitro]

Nightmare flash backs to the 2004 draft.  Bills did not trade up and took Lee Evans two picks after Pittsburgh selected Roethlisberger.  To compound the mistake, trades up with Dallas and take JP Losman.  UGH  Hope they get a top QB this year.

[BB2004]

On April 23, 2018 at 4:40 PM, sven233 said:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/04/23/report-bills-unlikely-to-trade-up-to-no-2/

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000928086/article/draft-buzz-bills-unlikely-to-trade-for-giants-no-2-pick?campaign=tw-nf-sf187598182-sf187598182&sf187598182=1

 

"From what I understand, it's not going to be one of those things where they just sell out and (trade) all the way to No. 2 with the Giants," Rapoport said. "I would be at this moment surprised if that happens."

 

I still think that if their #1 guy is there at 2 they do everything they can to get there. 

 

Hopefully there is a Plan B in place to get to 4-5 though if, for whatever reason, they can't get there.

 

If we trade to 4 or 5, hopefully Darnold or Rosen will still be there.

[Boatdrinks]

35 minutes ago, Nitro said:

Nightmare flash backs to the 2004 draft.  Bills did not trade up and took Lee Evans two picks after Pittsburgh selected Roethlisberger.  To compound the mistake, trades up with Dallas and take JP Losman.  UGH  Hope they get a top QB this year.

Yup. Pittsburgh made out pretty well sitting tight at 11 for the third best QB off the board. For the price of a single first round selection. I'm not suggesting the Bills do this, but sometimes it's better to be lucky than good, right? Wonder if PIt fans have nightmares of their team sitting idly by, waiting for Roethlisberger to fall to them. A lot of unexpected things can happen in a draft. We just dont know until it does. 

[thebandit27]

9 hours ago, BuffaloMatt said:

I love the Bills. I wish I had the answers. I hope you are right. 

 

I hear you; I admit that I have no idea if trading up will ultimately yield the right QB.

 

Where we differ is that the team really doesn't lose anything by taking their shot.  At worst, they miss out on some role players or ancillary pieces this year and fill them in FA next offseason.