Peter King:. Monday 4-16-18 column.

[PIZ]

http://amp.si.com/nfl/2018/04/16/nfl-draft-picks-prospects-trades-mmqb-peter-king?__twitter_impression=true

 

 

Doesn't sound too promising for a trade up for one of the top QBs.

 

 

[Boatdrinks]

It's getting closer and GMs are still keeping their poker faces on. Just speculation by King here. If he's correct, then 5 or 6 looks like a good target. I don't think the G-men  take a QB at 2, and we know the Browns aren't taking 2 QBs ( I think ..lol) . It's not as rosy a scenario as moving up to #2, but not all bad and not as expensive. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

17 minutes ago, PIZ said:

Doesn't sound too promising for a trade up for one of the top QBs.

 

 

With each passing day I am feeling this way more and more as well. I think the problem is that most teams willing to trade down just don't want to trade out of the top 10. I also think we might do something crazy like give up four first round picks to move up to 2 or 4. Or three first round picks just to move up to 6.

[Logic]

In one sense, I just can't wait for the draft to get here. The anticipation is killing me at this point.

In another sense, the waiting is the most enjoyable part. Once the draft happens, there's a two and a half month void before football starts again. All of this speculation and guessing is fun. ESPECIALLY for this draft. I can't remember a more important, wide open, fun Bills draft season in the past 20 years. 

10 days.

[greenwithenvy]

He says he can't find a spot for Rosen in the top 6. Trade with Tampa sounds good to me and a hell of a lot cheaper. 

[Laughing Coffin]

15 minutes ago, greenwithenvy said:

He says he can't find a spot for Rosen in the top 6. Trade with Tampa sounds good to me and a hell of a lot cheaper. 

It's honestly the dream scenario for us to land Rosen at 7.

 

Would cost ~ 12-65-2019 4th and we'd keep a lot of picks to help actually build a team around him

Edited April 16, 2018 by Laughing Coffin

[LABILLBACKER]

38 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

With each passing day I am feeling this way more and more as well. I think the problem is that most teams willing to trade down just don't want to trade out of the top 10. I also think we might do something crazy like give up four first round picks to move up to 2 or 4. Or three first round picks just to move up to 6.

I think with each passing day the cost of moving up to 2 far outweighs staying put and seeing who falls? There are no sure thing and this year to justify such an expensive trade up. Maybe trade up to 9 or even 7, but no higher. Next year's 1st could be a top 10? Too many unknowns. 

[Doc Brown]

It's crazy how opinions about QB's change as the draft gets closer.  I was convinced when the Jets traded for #3 it would be Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield with the top three picks in no particular order.  Now Rosen might drop.  Allen may be chosen #1 because it's the Browns.  Denver will probably pass on a quarterback.  Incognito's retirement and our refusal to address the WR or MLB spot in free agency makes me more apprehensive to give anything but our other 1st round pick and a mid round pick to move up to 6 or 7 if Mayfield or Rosen are available.  Who knows what the Giants will do with OBJ and what impact that may have over the draft.  Are the Eagles starting to realize they may get nothing for Nick Foles if they don't trade him for less than their original asking price?  Will New England shock everybody and give up the farm to get a top quarterback even if that's not their M.O.  I can't wait for the draft.

[KDIGGZ]

As long as Giants don't take a QB we are fine. Mayfield or Rosen at 7 would be amazing value and a high likelihood of getting the best QB in the draft anyhow by default. This actually takes the decision out of their hands so they don't screw it up. By the rumors it sounds like a safer pick than what they might be looking to do by trading up anyhow. If they gave up all of those picks to get to 2 and take a potential bust like Allen I think the fans would have a meltdown

[GETTOTHE50]

I still want the bills to trade up to two to get Rosen or Darold.

 

whatever it takes.

 

also, the draft should be scheduled earlier than this. I’ll be 100% excited on draft day but it’s getting to the point where I don’t care what happens 

[GunnerBill]

I remain convinced that the Mayfield to the Jets thing is a complete smokescreen.  They were among the first NFL teams to scout Josh Allen back in 2016 - I believe they covet Josh Allen.  

 

What worries me is I think the Bills do too..... and I would not like going to #2 for Allen.  For the other Josh?  Sign me up.  

[aristocrat]

5 hours ago, Laughing Coffin said:

It's honestly the dream scenario for us to land Rosen at 7.

 

Would cost ~ 12-65-2019 4th and we'd keep a lot of picks to help actually build a team around him

 

Anything that keeps the other First this year and next years is so much winning 

[GunnerBill]

27 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

 

Anything that keeps the other First this year and next years is so much winning 

 

Indeed.  But it's a gambler's game.... if you plan on that and the top 4 Qbs have all disappeared then you have failed in your prime objective for this draft and have to take a shot on a Rudolph or Jackson turning into the guy.  

 

I suppose the question is how much risk are they willing to bear..... because if they don't get their QB this year then I really think they are tied to AJ McCarron for at least two years.  The 2019 class does not look promising.  

[DCOrange]

6 hours ago, PIZ said:

http://amp.si.com/nfl/2018/04/16/nfl-draft-picks-prospects-trades-mmqb-peter-king?__twitter_impression=true

 

 

Doesn't sound too promising for a trade up for one of the top QBs.

 

 

On the contrary, it sounds to me like Buffalo can trade up at a relatively cheap cost and still have their choice of 3 worthy choices. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

I don't mind at all the Giants or Browns not trading out. I don't see Denver or the Giants taking a QB. As long as the Colts don't trade to a different QB needy team we would still have the same options at 7 as we would at 4 imo. And at a lower cost. 

[aristocrat]

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Indeed.  But it's a gambler's game.... if you plan on that and the top 4 Qbs have all disappeared then you have failed in your prime objective for this draft and have to take a shot on a Rudolph or Jackson turning into the guy.  

 

I suppose the question is how much risk are they willing to bear..... because if they don't get their QB this year then I really think they are tied to AJ McCarron for at least two years.  The 2019 class does not look promising.  

 

If the giants are taking qb there aren’t enough draft picks in the world to stop them. If not we hope beane has enough inside info to gamble. 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, aristocrat said:

 

If the giants are taking qb there aren’t enough draft picks in the world to stop them. If not we hope beane has enough inside info to gamble. 

 

Oh I agree.... but I don't think they are.  Getting to #2 is still my preferred approach but I worry that they will go there and then pick Allen..... the idea of getting Baker or the Rosen One at #7 is pretty exciting..... but a big gamble on them falling to that pick.  

[aristocrat]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Oh I agree.... but I don't think they are.  Getting to #2 is still my preferred approach but I worry that they will go there and then pick Allen..... the idea of getting Baker or the Rosen One at #7 is pretty exciting..... but a big gamble on them falling to that pick.  

 

My dream is Barkley at 2. Allen at 3, Nelson 4, and the broncos can’t turn down Chubb playing with Miller. We get our choice of baker or Rosen at 6-7. And hope the cards trade up for the other guy not the phins.

[Coach Tuesday]

What I took away from his article above everything else is that the Dolphins are serious about trading up for a QB and must have talked to several teams in the top seven about it.

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

What I took away from his article above everything else is that the Dolphins are serious about trading up for a QB and must have talked to several teams in the top seven about it.

 

I think it is 1 particular Quarterback.... I believe they love Mayfield.  

[aristocrat]

8 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

What I took away from his article above everything else is that the Dolphins are serious about trading up for a QB and must have talked to several teams in the top seven about it.

 

Its amazing the east could turn into the nfc north

[gobills1212]

6 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

It's getting closer and GMs are still keeping their poker faces on. Just speculation by King here. If he's correct, then 5 or 6 looks like a good target. I don't think the G-men  take a QB at 2, and we know the Browns aren't taking 2 QBs ( I think ..lol) . It's not as rosy a scenario as moving up to #2, but not all bad and not as expensive. 

Agreed, I was expecting to read it and find a nugget that was new that would be detrimental to a trade up but pretty much everything has been covered except kings speculation. 

That said, when giving your opinion of who your draft, as the writer, extra picks do nothing for you. He gave the option each time it was appropriate, but said who had pick. Good read, but not a needle move either way imo

[Pre1236]

Did Sean Payton seriously ask Rueben Foster's girlfriend if she was going to keep him out of trouble?? 

[FeelingOnYouboty]

The top 4 is set

 

CLE-Darnold

NYG-Barkley

NYJ-Mayfield

CLE-Chubbs

 

The action starts with Denver. Do they take Quenton Nelson or do they go with Josh Rosen?

 

Indy, TB, Chicago, SF, Oakland are all potential trade downs

 

24 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

What I took away from his article above everything else is that the Dolphins are serious about trading up for a QB and must have talked to several teams in the top seven about it.

 

Not a good sign if we let NYJ and Miami to be more desperate than us for QB.

[BillsFan17]

As nervous as I have been about not getting in the top four...

 

Browns-Allen/Darnold- I think Darnold is the pick but this is the Browns.

Giants-Barkley/Chubb

Jets- Allen/Mayfield- I think Mayfield is the pick.

 

All-in-all when buffalo has their chance to move up and strike for a lesser cost, they will most likely have Rosen and Allen available.

[CommonCents]

My top 4

 

Mayfield, Rosen, Allen, Darnold.

 

My train of thought goes like this...anyone of those 4 guys has more value at 7 than any of the 4 would it the Bills traded all the way up to 2.

 

Allen@7 is better value than Mayfield@2

Mayfield@7 is better value than Rosen@2

Rosen@7 is better value than Darnold at 2

 

on and on...

 

If the Bills can be sure to get one of the top 4 at 7 that seems like the best plan to me. I know there is some risk in waiting and they would have to feel the board but that is my ideal situation. 

Edited April 16, 2018 by Commonsense

[BillsFan17]

3 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

My top 4

 

Mayfield, Rosen, Allen, Darnold.

 

My train of thought goes like this...anyone of those 4 guys has more value at 7 than any of the 4 would it the Bills traded all the way up to 2.

 

Allen@7 is better value than Mayfield@2

Mayfield@7 is better value than Rosen@2

Rosen@7 is better value than Darnold at 2

 

on and on...

 

If the Bills can be sure to get one of the top 4 at 7 that seems like the best plan to me. I know there is some risk in waiting and they would have to feel the board but that is my ideal situation. 

Allen in no situation is better than anyone.

[mjt328]

I don't buy all this negative press about the QBs.  Some of these GMs are hoping to push some names down the board.

 

For the last 12+ months, all we've been hearing is how ridiculously deep and talented this QB class is.  How it was the best class in years.

Now suddenly, everybody is so "flawed" - their chances of succeeding have plummeted through the floor.

(On a side note, I also find it interesting how flawless of a prospect Carson Wentz has become in hindsight.)

 

Andrew Luck-type prospects come around every 15-20 years.  That is not a valid comparison. 

When you compare these guys to other QB prospects from past years, I find it very unlikely (especially considering the need around the NFL) that we don't see 4 quarterbacks in the Top 10 and at least 5 in the first round.

 

[CommonCents]

1 minute ago, BillsFan17 said:

Allen in no situation is better than anyone.

Allen has a ton of value at 7, you see it differently and that's okay. All 4 of these guys have flaws and having to use multiple first round picks to take one over another doesn't look like the smartest play. McD and Beane could survive a swing and miss at 7, I'm not so sure they would if they go all the way up the board and still miss.

[ddaryl]

Just now, Commonsense said:

Allen has a ton of value at 7, you see it differently and that's okay. All 4 of these guys have flaws and having to use multiple first round picks to take one over another doesn't look like the smartest play. McD and Beane could survive a swing and miss at 7, I'm not so sure they would if they go all the way up the board and still miss.

 

 

Nobody survives a swing and a miss on a QB.. He either hits or in 2 years he will need another job.

 

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

Nobody survives a swing and a miss on a QB.. He either hits or in 2 years he will need another job.

 

 

Ozzie Newsome got a second go after missing on Kyle Boller (and trading up to get him).  But I agree not many do. 

[BillsFan17]

6 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

Allen has a ton of value at 7, you see it differently and that's okay. All 4 of these guys have flaws and having to use multiple first round picks to take one over another doesn't look like the smartest play. McD and Beane could survive a swing and miss at 7, I'm not so sure they would if they go all the way up the board and still miss.

Ten days until the drafts, so no need to go down this road again, but Allen has no business in the first round.

 

Of all the knocks these other three have, none of them are playing poorly against inferior competition.

 

None of them are getting a pass for that inability because of the "team around them," when the QB who started in 2015 for Wyoming (Coffman) completed 63% of his passes, with essentially the same roster.

 

 

[PromoTheRobot]

8 hours ago, PIZ said:

http://amp.si.com/nfl/2018/04/16/nfl-draft-picks-prospects-trades-mmqb-peter-king?__twitter_impression=true

 

 

Doesn't sound too promising for a trade up for one of the top QBs.

 

 

 

So we are going from the greatest QB draft ever to a repeat of 2013?

[Chuck Wagon]

I could see Denver taking the route that Oakland and Dallas have recently, taking Nelson at 5 and waiting on round 2 or later to add Rudolph / White type to the mix with Keenum / Lynch.  If 2 of the top 4 QBs clear Denver, the price to move should be VERY reasonable, frankly if 2 QBs are on the board I'd laugh at Indy asking for #22, I'd offer them #12 and 2 picks in the 53-65 range.  Once you get into the 6-7-8 range, you know you are getting the same level prospect at 12, teams are going to be calling us to make a move up.  

[BillsFan17]

Just now, Chuck Wagon said:

I could see Denver taking the route that Oakland and Dallas have recently, taking Nelson at 5 and waiting on round 2 or later to add Rudolph / White type to the mix with Keenum / Lynch.  If 2 of the top 4 QBs clear Denver, the price to move should be VERY reasonable, frankly if 2 QBs are on the board I'd laugh at Indy asking for #22, I'd offer them #12 and 2 picks in the 53-65 range.  Once you get into the 6-7-8 range, you know you are getting the same level prospect at 12, teams are going to be calling us to make a move up.  

That's the caveat with Denver, they are only two years removed from taking Paxton in the first. Very few GMs get to draft two first round QBs.

 

I think Elways needs to build that team for a run with that defense. 

[Chuck Wagon]

9 minutes ago, BillsFan17 said:

That's the caveat with Denver, they are only two years removed from taking Paxton in the first. Very few GMs get to draft two first round QBs.

 

I think Elways needs to build that team for a run with that defense. 

 

 

The defense has fallen off a cliff, but they've had a terrible o-line and no running game for several years.  I think Elway recognizes it hasn't been set up for any QB to succeed and they answer that instead of tossing in another guy who is fighting an uphill battle.

 

The real funny thing is if the Giants and Denver do pass on QBs and the Jets gave up 3 2nd round picks to take the same QB at 3 they would have gotten at 6.

[ddaryl]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Ozzie Newsome got a second go after missing on Kyle Boller (and trading up to get him).  But I agree not many do. 

 

Well its possible to survive technically, but Beane's bestus chance at saving face if he drafts a busted QB is AJ McCarron. That's a bit of a long shot in itself

 

 

[MarlinTheMagician]

Jets are taking Rosen at 3; book it.

[BillsFan17]

10 minutes ago, MarlinTheMagician said:

Jets are taking Rosen at 3; book it.

Nope

[crack]

10 minutes ago, MarlinTheMagician said:

Jets are taking Rosen at 3; book it.

 

Why do you think that?