Former Bills OC has Final Exam grades for top 6 QBs

[racketmaster]

8 minutes ago, elroy16 said:

 

 

There's a bunch of red flags in Fairchild's analysis of Jackson, that's for sure.

 

 

It's curious to see different sides though. Matt Waldman did a breakdown of Jackson versus Allen's in the pocket and had good things to say about Jackson in the pocket.

 

https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2017/12/30/rsp-film-room-no-119-qbs-lamar-jackson-and-josh-allen-in-the-pocket/

 

 

 

This looks like one of the more positive evaluations on Rudolph. I particularly like Rudolph's ability to hit the intermediate throws. 

 

 

Cian Fahey and Chris Trapasso are also really high on Rudolph. 

[Seanbillsfan2206]

I stopped reading when he said Mayfield was a second rd pick and then said Rudolph was a first rd pick. The only thing I can think of is he somehow confused the two...

[PIZ]

If the Bills scouts / front office think the same as Steve Fairchild, then they are going to draft Mason Rudolph at #12.

[17 Josh Allen]

19 minutes ago, PIZ said:

If the Bills scouts / front office think the same as Steve Fairchild, then they are going to draft Mason Rudolph at #12.

please let this happen. Then we get to use our 5 other pics and not give them away. 

 

 

what I like about Rudolph is this 

 

Timing/Vision-Processing/Anticipation

He proved able to throw the timing routes with good accuracy and shows a natural feel for these types of throws. Rudolph doesn’t always have to see a receiver break or be in the open window to throw the ball. He sees the field well and can make throws with anticipation, in addition to being able to throw receivers open. He throws an excellent seam route; his size and stature helps him in these areas. GRADE: 8.5

 

 

 

 

SUMMARY/DRAFT PROJECTION

The South Carolina native is a quarterback who possesses a NFL frame, an above average arm and a mechanically sound delivery. His arm talent is good but not great. Rudolph is balanced and compact in his setup when dropping back and was a very productive player all four years in college, showcasing some characteristics that translate well to playing quarterback in the NFL. His pocket presence and ability to operate/process with defenders around him is outstanding; he shows the toughness to stand tall and execute. Rudolph isn’t very mobile in the pocket and there will be an adjustment period for him to play under center. Overall, he has a very big upside and may be as good as any quarterback in this draft class, as he develops over the next few years. Mason Rudolph should be a first-round pick in the 2018 draft. OVERALL GRADE: 119

Edited April 12, 2018 by Thurmanator 12074

[LabattBlue]

I thought posting entire articles was against board rules??

[racketmaster]

Here is link to the Sam Darnold scouting report. 

http://nfldraftbible.com/sam-darnold-final-exam-with-steve-fairchild/ 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

OK, it's an interesting find and obviously someone who has worked in the NFL should know more than we fans (I say should because, y'know, Maybin and TJ Graham and stuff)

 

 I have to say someone who lists "high profile QB he has worked with" as JP Losman and Dan McGuire, doesn't exactly build a thrill for his chops as the "QB Whisperer", KWIM?

 

 

On 4/12/2018 at 11:50 AM, LabattBlue said:

I thought posting entire articles was against board rules??

 

It is

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 4/12/2018 at 8:51 AM, C.Biscuit97 said:

This is a great breakdown.  I trust this information a lot more than Kiper or McShay.  

Also, hot take:  Fairchild was one of the better OCs of the drought. The fact he made JP Losman look like something like a nfl qb for a year is amazing.

 

OK, I will take that endorsement into account.  Made Losman look like a real QB, check.

 

Overall, I think I can't interpret it without understanding more what went into each of his grades.

 

For example, he has Josh Rosen and Lamar Jackson both graded the same for "size and athletic ability", 8.0

Now I like Josh Rosen, and he is 2" taller than Lamar Jackson.  But Jackson does pass the height threshhold of "tall enough", and to me, one of these things is remarkably not like the other, and that is Jackson's athletic ability vs Rosen's .  Jackson is an athletic freak, who can have LB hanging off his so-called toothpick legs and break their grip to move, reset, and throw.  So I look at them grading the same and say WTF?

 

It makes me wonder how much it is really his work, and how much someone came up with a framework of categories and initial grades that he tweeked and agreed to put his name on.

 

[racketmaster]

15 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

OK, it's an interesting find and obviously someone who has worked in the NFL should know more than we fans (I say should because, y'know, Maybin and TJ Graham and stuff)

 

 I have to say someone who lists "high profile QB he has worked with" as JP Losman and Dan McGuire, doesn't exactly build a thrill for his chops as the "QB Whisperer", KWIM?

 

 

 

It is

I corrected the original post by removing the copied portions. Does anyone know if we are permitted to post parts of an article? Not sure where the line is drawn. 

[Sky Diver]

So is the difference between 117.5 to 120.5 statistically significant? I hardly think so.

Edited April 17, 2018 by Sky Diver

[racketmaster]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

OK, I will take that endorsement into account.  Made Losman look like a real QB, check.

 

Overall, I think I can't interpret it without understanding more what went into each of his grades.

 

For example, he has Josh Rosen and Lamar Jackson both graded the same for "size and athletic ability", 8.0

Now I like Josh Rosen, and he is 2" taller than Lamar Jackson.  But Jackson does pass the height threshhold of "tall enough", and to me, one of these things is remarkably not like the other, and that is Jackson's athletic ability vs Rosen's .  Jackson is an athletic freak, who can have LB hanging off his so-called toothpick legs and break their grip to move, reset, and throw.  So I look at them grading the same and say WTF?

 

It makes me wonder how much it is really his work, and how much someone came up with a framework of categories and initial grades that he tweeked and agreed to put his name on.

 

Scouting is subjective. It seems Fairchild values prototypical qb size in a qb which is pretty common. It is odd that he lumped the two categories together considering how many other categories he scores in his analysis. So Rosen had high marks for prototypical size and decent athleticism while Jackson was seen as a tremendous athlete who has less than ideal size and tends to play small from within the pocket. Fairchild appears to put more value in the pocket size as opposed to overall athleticism. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

I corrected the original post by removing the copied portions. Does anyone know if we are permitted to post parts of an article? Not sure where the line is drawn. 

 

If you're interested, here's a good write up on Fair Use copyright issues.  Lawyers spend years debating this stuff.

I think common sense is a reasonable guideline for a  BB forum  - a couple paragraphs of a long article, or a key summary from each review, or a few sentences - just not the whole thing.

[racketmaster]

6 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

So is the difference between 117.5 to 120.5 statistically significant? I hardly think so.

That is interesting. His analysis is very detailed and appears to be a solid assessment of each of the prospects (as you would expect from someone with his experience). But the grading system does seem odd. A small point difference leaves one prospect as a second rounder while another is seen as a top 5 pick. Overall, what I like about it is that it gives us some idea of what NFL coaches would be seeing when evaluating these guys. Again, it is subjective and just one person's evaluation. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

Scouting is subjective. It seems Fairchild values prototypical qb size in a qb which is pretty common. It is odd that he lumped the two categories together considering how many other categories he scores in his analysis. So Rosen had high marks for prototypical size and decent athleticism while Jackson was seen as a tremendous athlete who has less than ideal size and tends to play small from within the pocket. Fairchild appears to put more value in the pocket size as opposed to overall athleticism. 

 

Fair points.  I agree it was strange to lump those two categories together but break out so many others, especially when many of the QB in this draft don't really make the prototypical 3,5,7, step drops so I'm not sure how he grades them so granularly.

 

Anyway, interesting read.

[racketmaster]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

If you're interested, here's a good write up on Fair Use copyright issues.  Lawyers spend years debating this stuff.

I think common sense is a reasonable guideline for a  BB forum  - a couple paragraphs of a long article, or a key summary from each review, or a few sentences - just not the whole thing.

Makes sense, summaries probably would have been the way to go. I know in past years (on the previous message board) I would get some grief from posters if I did not copy the article because they did not want to open up the links at work. Good to know for the future. 

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Fair points.  I agree it was strange to lump those two categories together but break out so many others, especially when many of the QB in this draft don't really make the prototypical 3,5,7, step drops so I'm not sure how he grades them so granularly.

 

Anyway, interesting read.

If I was to ever do such a detailed report, I would definitely separate size from athleticism. They are important enough qualities to have their own categories. It seems clear that Fairchild puts more emphasis on what goes on in the pocket than the ability to run. 

[racketmaster]

Here is the final scouting report on Allen who was rated #1.

http://nfldraftbible.com/josh-allen-final-exam-with-steve-fairchild/

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

On 4/12/2018 at 9:51 AM, Shotgunner said:

 

I have been paying attention to all the Rudolph hype lately, and I must adm8t to being sucked in. I was fully on board with taking him at 12 thinking we couod keep all of our picks...

 

Then I read the analysis from before prodays and the combine. Now I don't want him in the first at all. I am EXTREMELY leery of guys who get moved up the draft board significantly long after they play their last game. Tape should drive draft position, not hype from the talking heads.

 

Sure, he could end up being the best of the bunch, and I'm still "ok" with him later on, but I see warning flags based on his clausen-esque post combine rise.

 

That is what I belive will happen 

[racketmaster]

Final rankings:

1) Allen - (122) A top pick in the draft

2) Darnold (121) A top 5 pick

3) Rosen (120.5) Early first round

4) Rudolph (119) First round 

5) Mayfield (117.5) 2nd round

6) Jackson (112.5) 2nd round

[Domdab99]

LOL Fairchild? And he puts Allen at the top of his board?  What is going on?

 

I'm so confused. Metrics say that Allen is a bust. But pro scouts love him. 

Edited April 19, 2018 by Domdab99

[OldTimer1960]

On 4/12/2018 at 10:45 AM, aceman_16 said:

Is this why he has the title of "former"?

You understand that even the mighty Bill Belichick is “former Browns’ head coach”...

24 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

LOL Fairchild? And he puts Allen at the top of his board?  What is going on?

 

I'm so confused. Metrics say that Allen is a bust. But pro scouts love him. 

What “metrics”?  

 

I am am not a fan of drafting Allen, especially if it involves trading up.  BUT, in >30 years of following the draft, I’ve learned to check myself and realize that sometimes the pros know more than the draft pundits, media and fans.  That doesn’t mean that they are always right  and the pundits wrong, but by my recollection a lot of times the pundits/media have criticized an NFL executive for a move it hasn’t panned out the way that the media thought it would.

[aceman_16]

57 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

You understand that even the mighty Bill Belichick is “former Browns’ head coach”...

And you do understand he currently has a long term HOF job in the NFL as a head coach due to his acumen? Bad example.... there were actually better  

[OldTimer1960]

45 minutes ago, aceman_16 said:

And you do understand he currently has a long term HOF job in the NFL as a head coach due to his acumen? Bad example.... there were actually better  

Too impractical to list all of the good NFL coaches who have been fired.

 

How about Marv Levy as an example?  Wade Phillips is a MASTER DC and he has been let go as well.

 

Now, to be clear, I am not saying that Fairchild achieved on their levels, but his opinion should carry some weight as a guy who had multiple gigs in the NFL and college.

[aceman_16]

38 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Too impractical to list all of the good NFL coaches who have been fired.

 

How about Marv Levy as an example?  Wade Phillips is a MASTER DC and he has been let go as well.

 

Now, to be clear, I am not saying that Fairchild achieved on their levels, but his opinion should carry some weight as a guy who had multiple gigs in the NFL and college.

Another hall of famer coach (Levy)  and one of the best coordinators ever (Phillips).  My larger point was and IS that Fairchild is just a guy with NFL experience.  IF you think the miracle work he pulled while coaching JP Losman, Marc Bulger, and Dan McGwire paving their "HOF careers" makes him a QB genius....  I am unsure there is help for you.

[HappyDays]

I'm bumping this thread because there wasn't much discussion about his Josh Allen report. He had Allen as his #1 QB.

http://nfldraftbible.com/josh-allen-final-exam-with-steve-fairchild/

SUMMARY/DRAFT PROJECTION

Allen is an elite talent when it comes to quarterbacks.  He has NFL size, as well as very good athletic ability. He plays the game of football with toughness. He will have to learn to slide at the next level. Allen has a big arm with a quick release. These abilities make defenses have to defend the entire field as he can quickly and effortlessly throw the ball anywhere. He can stand in the pocket and continue to process with defenders around him, in addition to being able to escape and create when necessary. His speed is good, as is his ability to throw accurately on the run. Allen is a quarterback that doesn’t have a lot of experience and may have a learning curve when making the jump to the NFL in terms of scheme and situational football. His talent is undeniable and he should be top pick in the first round of the 2018 NFL draft and the first or second quarterback off the board.

The report goes more in depth on each of his traits. Fairchild has been coaching QBs for years so I'd like to think he knows what he's talking about.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

20 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I'm bumping this thread because there wasn't much discussion about his Josh Allen report. He had Allen as his #1 QB.

http://nfldraftbible.com/josh-allen-final-exam-with-steve-fairchild/
 

 

 

The report goes more in depth on each of his traits. Fairchild has been coaching QBs for years so I'd like to think he knows what he's talking about.

 

Hopefully he knows what he's talking about. His QB opinion is very different from the majority. 

[Mat68]

5 minutes ago, TheTruthHurts said:

Hopefully he knows what he's talking about. His QB opinion is very different from the majority. 

What majority?  

[Buffalo_Stampede]

3 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

What majority?  

Most reports I've read say he lacks anticipation. Even Jordan Palmer blamed his lack of anticipation on his WR's. Fairchild says he has excellent anticipation. 

[Augie]

6 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

What majority?  

 

Josh Rosen and his family and friends? 

 

I have no idea how this turns out, but I’m praying that he reaches his ceiling.  

[Mat68]

1 minute ago, TheTruthHurts said:

Most reports I've read say he lacks anticipation. Even Jordan Palmer blamed his lack of anticipation on his WR's. Fairchild says he has excellent anticipation. 

I ment in terms of his ranking.  I have seen multiple places rank Allen 1 or 2 in this draft in terms of Qbs.  

[Buffalo_Stampede]

6 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

I ment in terms of his ranking.  I have seen multiple places rank Allen 1 or 2 in this draft in terms of Qbs.  

Yeah, Allen's ranking ranged from 1-5, mostly 1-3. I have no problem with the ranking, just the evaluation makes little sense. 

[John from Riverside]

This is where I get confused on Josh Allen's evalutation

 

I have seen people all over the place on evaluation of his mechanics

 

This guy says he has excellent mechanics

 

but then I see lots of reports that he need to clean up his fundamentals....and he is doing all this strictly from arm talent alone

 

I mean which is it.....or a combonation of both?

[Houston's #1 Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

This is where I get confused on Josh Allen's evalutation

 

I have seen people all over the place on evaluation of his mechanics

 

This guy says he has excellent mechanics

 

but then I see lots of reports that he need to clean up his fundamentals....and he is doing all this strictly from arm talent alone

 

I mean which is it.....or a combonation of both?

I'll let you know in September.....

[billspro]

2 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

This is where I get confused on Josh Allen's evalutation

 

I have seen people all over the place on evaluation of his mechanics

 

This guy says he has excellent mechanics

 

but then I see lots of reports that he need to clean up his fundamentals....and he is doing all this strictly from arm talent alone

 

I mean which is it.....or a combonation of both?

 

I don’t think you can throw a football 70mph without perfect mechanics. He has some footwork to clean up, but what NFL prospect doesn’t. He doesn’t have to change anything about his throwing motion imo.

[MJS]

2 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

This is where I get confused on Josh Allen's evalutation

 

I have seen people all over the place on evaluation of his mechanics

 

This guy says he has excellent mechanics

 

but then I see lots of reports that he need to clean up his fundamentals....and he is doing all this strictly from arm talent alone

 

I mean which is it.....or a combonation of both?

 

I bet he does have perfect mechanics on a lot of throws, but has bad mechanics on others. I've read that when throwing to the left side of the field he opens up his base too much instead of pointing his left foot at his target. But when throwing to the right he does well.

[Tyrod's friend]

On 4/19/2018 at 9:03 PM, aceman_16 said:

My larger point was and IS that Fairchild is just a guy with NFL experience.  IF you think the miracle work he pulled while coaching JP Losman, Marc Bulger, and Dan McGwire paving their "HOF careers" makes him a QB genius....  I am unsure there is help for you.

Steve Fairchild has a long career in football at the highest level. 

Just for ***** and giggles ... I mean, I don't this guy at all but ...
 

First year as an OC - team goes from 7-9 before him to 12-4 in his first year and the QB gets his first PB.

Second year as OC - team goes 8-6 with starting QB, wins playoff game and loses in second round.
Third year as OC - team still middle of pack. Throughout this time period the Rams segue from one HoF RB to Steven Jackson. Offense ranks 2nd, 19th, 11th.

This is what he got out of his QB. Let me assure you, whatever Marc Bulger was going to be, Steve Fairchild didn't leave any of it in the clubhouse.

 

Marc Bulger Passing Statistics for Career Games 2003 to 2005

 

		Games		Passing																Passing
Year	Tm	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD
Average		12	12		283	435		3369	19		15									35	259
Per 16 Games		16	16		367	564		4370	25		19									45	336
2003-2005	RAM	37	37	22-15-0	849	1304	65.1	10106	57	4.4	45	3.5	57	7.8	7.1	11.9	273.1	88.8		104	778	6.63	6.00	7.4

Comes to Buffalo and gets this out of JP Losman - who, before Fairchild completed 49% of his passes:

J.P. Losman Passing Statistics for Career Games 2006 to 2007

 

		Games		Passing																Passing
Year	Tm	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD
Average		12	12		190	302		2128	12		10									30	218
Per 16 Games		16	15		253	403		2837	15		13									41	290
2006-2007	BUF	24	23	9-14-0	379	604	62.7	4255	23	3.8	20	3.3	85	7.0	6.3	11.2	177.3	82.6		61	435	5.74	5.08	9.2

 

Before Steve Fairchild, Losman was horrible. Losman disappeared after he was gone. Obviously our offense under Dick Jauron wasn't much in those years. But again, whatever JP Losman was going to be Steve Fairchild didn't leave any of it in the locker room.


Meanwhile YOU are someone with all the credits in your life in football to the point where you don't disclose you real name on a football blog. Pretty cheeky if you ask me.

My own larger point is that somebody on a football website probably doesn't have the chits to sit at a table with Steve Fairchild.

TO the OP - thanks for sharing.

 

[BarleyNY]

3 hours ago, TheTruthHurts said:

Hopefully he knows what he's talking about. His QB opinion is very different from the majority. 

 

Agreed. There are a lot of scouting reports out there that are not at all complimentary of Allen.  It’s nice to see that someone loved him and thought he was the #1 QB prospect before we drafted him. 

[BurpleBull]

I was trying to gauge the accuracy of Fairchild's assessment because he's offering an in-depth breakdown of each QB and speaks so well of Allen but I don't know how much stock can be fully placed in his analysis despite all the good things he expresses about Allen.

 

I'm willing to buy that Allen's stat struggles are a result of a poor supporting cast, but become a little iffy on Fairchild's analysis somewhat when checking Mason Rudolph's breakdown to see if he would mention some of the flaws in his game that I saw and see none of them really highlighted.

 

Rudolph's ball placement isn't great all the time despite having one of the better career completion percentages among the QB's, as he threw the ball too high for his receivers to make a play after the catch at times (including passes to Marcell Ateman, 6-4 WR). I chalked it up to him being a taller QB with a higher release point.

 

He also doesn't appear to have great pocket awareness at times; there were plays where he'd be so stuck on his receiver downfield that he didn't notice the defensive pressure of a four-man rush whatsoever, was sacked, and stripped of the football.

 

He gives Rudolph pretty good scores across the board except for when it comes to his mobility.

 

I can buy that Allen will have greater success in the NFL being surrounded by better players given his abilities, it sounds fair, but I'm unsure of the accuracy of Fairchild's complete assessment. 

 

[Magox]

A couple points that I'd like to make:

 

Most reports and analysis did not criticize Allen's lack of throwing with anticipation, as a matter of fact more analysis than not mentioned that he did throw with decent anticipation.

 

The criticism in regards to the mental aspect was that he lacks in processing the play after the snap and that he needs work with his progressions.

 

Also Allen has excellent throwing "mechanics", however his weakness in this area are his lower body mechanics.  Primarily when he needs to reset off of his first progression to the second.  

 

There is a distinction between these.

Edited May 17, 2018 by Magox

[BuffaloBill]

The real question is whether Allen will respond to and absorb coaching.  He has all of the tools.  

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

Nice bump.

 

I'm not going to question Fairchild's credibility (and being fired as an OC shouldn't lead people to believe that he doesn't know what he's talking about), but his analysis was probably a bit too shiny to me. Only once or twice did he point out a flaw in Allen's game (leaving the pocket early, touch on short throws). In most evaluations, you list multiple strengths and weaknesses. The way Allen is described here, you would think the Browns would have ran to the podium and taken him 1st overall. 

 

This doesn't mean I'm not a fan, I just think the analysis may have left out some of the things that Allen doesn't do as consistently as he needs to at the next level. Just because he can do something, doesn't mean he does it well all the time. Granted you can find those types of flaws in all QBs at times, but there was no mention of them. 

 

That said, I think the general idea that fans have when they read about a player's weakness is that it's a major issue, when many times, it's more of a consistency issue. Just because Allen may have opened his hips on some throws to the left, doesn't mean he hasn't done it without opening his hips. We tend to focus on the negatives a bit more than we should, and often forget about the strengths. IMO, Allen's strengths far outweigh the weaknesses. His talent is undeniable, and he does excel in several areas that you want from a professional QB. Trusting his arm too much may get him in trouble at times, but that's the mentality that you want. Trust in yourself, and trust in your receivers to make the play if you just give them a chance. And what flaws he does have seem to be correctable, and it doesn't seem like there's many. 

 

He's very smart, tough, and was a late bloomer beginning his collegiate career. Uber talented QB that played with marginal talent last year. I think he's come a long way in 3 years, and if coached properly and surrounded with decent talent, I think we'll be in good shape to truly contend for championships.