Time for Beane to Call Gettleman - Beane Says the Bills Have the Capital to Get to #2

[Boatdrinks]

3 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I know what happened on Houston's side. My point was about settling for a second tier QB. The Bills were willing to spend future 1sts anyways. No one was putting together "6 pick deals" back then like they do now. Maybe if they had, it would have been an offer the Texans couldnt refuse. You have to be willing to try and get the best.

 

 

That wasn't common then ( or expected) as there was no rookie cap. The parameters were agreed to, so they were obviously good enough for the Texans. Teams do not want to move down without getting their targeted player, though. That can't be emphasized enough. Sure, the Bills could have offered their entire draft a la Ditka. Should we have expected them to do something that was literally unheard of? Of course not. Sometimes the gods smile and you get lucky. Sometimes not. It took a crazy confluence of events for Roethlisberger to not end up a NY Giant with pick #2. PIT was unbelievably lucky that day and he fell in their lap at 11. For just one pick. They didn't have to be willing to do anything other than turn in the card. Sucks, but the Bills had terrible luck along their journey through the QB wasteland. 

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I've only heard it was the Texans that killed the trade because they wanted Robinson. And I'm fine believing that. But my point will always be we should have made an offer that was way more enticing than Dunta Robinson.

 

Since I do drink, sometimes too much, I might have miss heard it.

[Boatdrinks]

6 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Well it's a situation of whose report you want to believe.  

Brown sounded pretty convincing.  It wasn't hearsay, he spoke with this guy directly.  Said they (other personnel members)to this day will talk about how history would have been much different if they didn't chicken out.

So who knows who is right.

I'll believe Mort. It simply defies logic for the Bills to cancel the deal for the player they wanted. HOU is understandable. They'd have to wait out a few more picks. The Bills? It's simple. If Ben is still on the board when HOU pick is up, they phone in the trade. If not, it's off. It would make no sense to believe that the Bills would cancel the deal. It's always been my understanding that HOU " chickened out" because they might not get their player. The Bills would have gotten theirs , so what would the motivation be? 

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, Boatdrinks said:

I'll believe Mort. It simply defies logic for the Bills to cancel the deal for the player they wanted. HOU is understandable. They'd have to wait out a few more picks. The Bills? It's simple. If Ben is still on the board when HOU pick is up, they phone in the trade. If not, it's off. It would make no sense to believe that the Bills would cancel the deal. It's always been my understanding that HOU " chickened out" because they might not get their player. The Bills would have gotten theirs , so what would the motivation be? 

 

I don't know, I guess they felt it was too much to give up.

[Boatdrinks]

7 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I've only heard it was the Texans that killed the trade because they wanted Robinson. And I'm fine believing that. But my point will always be we should have made an offer that was way more enticing than Dunta Robinson.

Teams don't see it that way. They just don't. They want the pick and to get their player. What's the holdup with the Giants right now? They won't get the elite guy they want all the way back at 12. Should the Bills entice them with their entire draft? It's just not realistic to expect this. Only one team has done it. Obviously HOU thought Robinson was a stud. Turns out that was DeAngelo Hall. In hindsight , HOU would probably have went through with the deal. 

2 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I don't know, I guess they felt it was too much to give up.

That would be silly.. you don't call and offer what you're unwilling to part with. I've never once heard of this happening . 

[DrDawkinstein]

9 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Teams don't see it that way. They just don't. They want the pick and to get their player. What's the holdup with the Giants right now? They won't get the elite guy they want all the way back at 12. Should the Bills entice them with their entire draft? It's just not realistic to expect this. Only one team has done it. Obviously HOU thought Robinson was a stud. Turns out that was DeAngelo Hall. In hindsight , HOU would probably have went through with the deal. 

That would be silly.. you don't call and offer what you're unwilling to part with. I've never once heard of this happening . 

 

You're focusing on details that are far outside the point I was making with the example of Losman vs Rothlisberger. Doesnt matter what could have happened or not.

 

People are suggesting we should actively settle for the 2nd tier without trying to get to the first tier. That's a loser attitude that will stick you with a garbage QB.

 

[Boatdrinks]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

You're focusing on details that are far outside the point I was making with the example of Losman vs Rothlisberger. Doesnt matter what could have happened or not.

 

People are suggesting we should actively settle for the 2nd tier without trying to get to the first tier. That's a loser attitude that will stick you with a garbage QB.

 

That's a different argument, and a foolish one . Fortunately those people aren't the ones running things at OBD. I'm confident the Bills have their sights on getting the highest pick possible in this draft. They may not find a willing partner in say , the NYG or CLE. But their interest weeks ago in the Colts pick at 3 confirms they are aiming high. 

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, Boatdrinks said:

That's a different argument, and a foolish one . Fortunately those people aren't the ones running things at OBD. I'm confident the Bills have their sights on getting the highest pick possible in this draft. They may not find a willing partner in say , the NYG or CLE. But their interest weeks ago in the Colts pick at 3 confirms they are aiming high. 

 

There you go. See? We actually agree.

 

The Bills should try to get a Top Tier guy even if it costs them 4-5 picks, instead of settling for a 2nd Tier guy which will only cost them 2-3 picks. That was the whole point from the jump.

[Boatdrinks]

2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

There you go. See? We actually agree.

 

The Bills should try to get a Top Tier guy even if it costs them 4-5 picks, instead of settling for a 2nd Tier guy which will only cost them 2-3 picks. That was the whole point from the jump.

Although it is entirely possible that one or more of the top 4 QBs is available at pick 5, and that would be ( theoretically) a much less expensive move up. I think the Bills would only make such a move if they felt it was the highest pick available to them, though. Not as an either- or choice. That they wanted the Colts pick at 3 might indicate that the 1st and 2nd picks aren't available. 

[DrDawkinstein]

Brandon Marshall cut! Another hole to fill. Must mean Gettleman is expecting an influx of picks soon!

[DCOrange]

32 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

You're focusing on details that are far outside the point I was making with the example of Losman vs Rothlisberger. Doesnt matter what could have happened or not.

 

People are suggesting we should actively settle for the 2nd tier without trying to get to the first tier. That's a loser attitude that will stick you with a garbage QB.

 

 

Assuming this is referring to me, my point is that Rosen, Mayfield, Lamar, etc. are all basically the same tier as Darnold/Allen while costing far, far less to acquire. History shows that trading up for the #1 or 2 QB almost never actually nets you the #1 or 2 QB and studies have shown that trading up based on the Jimmy Johnson chart that basically all teams follow is an incredibly poor decision. By trading up what it would require to get one of the top 4 picks you're trading picks that are worth far, far more than the actual value you're likely to get out of the pick. Perhaps the Bills will do so and luckily nail their pick, but history would suggest it's a very poor idea despite the occasional outlier. See the chart below for example that compares the value assigned to each pick by the Jimmy Johnson chart to the actual returned value of those picks.

 

[K-9]

34 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

Assuming this is referring to me, my point is that Rosen, Mayfield, Lamar, etc. are all basically the same tier as Darnold/Allen while costing far, far less to acquire. History shows that trading up for the #1 or 2 QB almost never actually nets you the #1 or 2 QB and studies have shown that trading up based on the Jimmy Johnson chart that basically all teams follow is an incredibly poor decision. By trading up what it would require to get one of the top 4 picks you're trading picks that are worth far, far more than the actual value you're likely to get out of the pick. Perhaps the Bills will do so and luckily nail their pick, but history would suggest it's a very poor idea despite the occasional outlier. See the chart below for example that compares the value assigned to each pick by the Jimmy Johnson chart to the actual returned value of those picks.

 

Again, some interesting things to think about. 

 

The recent Wentz and Goff trade ups notwithstanding (and those two certainly are proving to be worth the trade ups), it is relatively rare for teams to trade up for franchise QBs as most teams are unwilling to trade down from the opportunity to get one themselves. 

 

And as for history again, while interesting, it is also totally irrelevant to these prospects, in this draft, with these teams. Every draft and the players and teams involved has its own unique dynamics at play. QBs that busted in past drafts simply have no bearing on anything. 

[BuffAlone]

42 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

Assuming this is referring to me, my point is that Rosen, Mayfield, Lamar, etc. are all basically the same tier as Darnold/Allen while costing far, far less to acquire. History shows that trading up for the #1 or 2 QB almost never actually nets you the #1 or 2 QB and studies have shown that trading up based on the Jimmy Johnson chart that basically all teams follow is an incredibly poor decision. By trading up what it would require to get one of the top 4 picks you're trading picks that are worth far, far more than the actual value you're likely to get out of the pick. Perhaps the Bills will do so and luckily nail their pick, but history would suggest it's a very poor idea despite the occasional outlier. See the chart below for example that compares the value assigned to each pick by the Jimmy Johnson chart to the actual returned value of those picks.

 

Rosen and Mayfield are NOT on the same tier as the rest.period. You either get one of those two, or you settle. Settling is not an option from a 1st, or even 2nd round pick. Its time we move on completely from the same ole stagnation known as the Bills QB situation. Them wagons have been circled so much, geologists in 150 years are gonna assume there was some ancient technology involved to do Lord knows what. ?

[DCOrange]

12 minutes ago, BuffAlone said:

Rosen and Mayfield are NOT on the same tier as the rest.period. You either get one of those two, or you settle. Settling is not an option from a 1st, or even 2nd round pick. Its time we move on completely from the same ole stagnation known as the Bills QB situation. Them wagons have been circled so much, geologists in 150 years are gonna assume there was some ancient technology involved to do Lord knows what. ?

 

In this scenario, the person I'm responding to is saying that Rosen and Mayfield are a tier below Darnold and Allen.

23 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Again, some interesting things to think about. 

 

The recent Wentz and Goff trade ups notwithstanding (and those two certainly are proving to be worth the trade ups), it is relatively rare for teams to trade up for franchise QBs as most teams are unwilling to trade down from the opportunity to get one themselves. 

 

And as for history again, while interesting, it is also totally irrelevant to these prospects, in this draft, with these teams. Every draft and the players and teams involved has its own unique dynamics at play. QBs that busted in past drafts simply have no bearing on anything. 

It absolutely is relevant. It's ridiculous to think that this year is so radically different from the past that trades that generally prove to cost 3-4 times more than the reward is suddenly a worthy investment now, especially considering the volume of options available this season. If anything, the argument should be that with as many options as this year's QB class has, trading up should be expected to carry even less value because the volume will likely push worthy draft picks down lower.

[Dr. Who]

9 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

In this scenario, the person I'm responding to is saying that Rosen and Mayfield are a tier below Darnold and Allen.

I think Darnold and Allen have higher ceilings with greater risk.  I think its not implausible to group the top four in any particular order based on differing criteria.  Some may place two clearly above two others, but it isn't self-evident to me that everyone should place Rosen/Mayfield or Darnold/Allen, for example, above the others.

Edited April 19, 2018 by Dr. Who

[K-9]

6 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

In this scenario, the person I'm responding to is saying that Rosen and Mayfield are a tier below Darnold and Allen.

It absolutely is relevant. It's ridiculous to think that this year is so radically different from the past that trades that generally prove to cost 3-4 times more than the reward is suddenly a worthy investment now, especially considering the volume of options available this season. If anything, the argument should be that with as many options as this year's QB class has, trading up should be expected to carry even less value because the volume will likely push worthy draft picks down lower.

We don't get to determine what how many "options" there are at QB in this draft. What the talking head pundits spew is just not worth hanging your hat on. It all depends on the grades assigned by Beane and Co. and whether or not they think a player is worth shooting for and for all we know, they may only think one QB is worth the investment. 

 

As to history being relevant, it simply isn't. Every draft, every player, every team, every circumstance is unique.  All of those previous failures failed for EVERY other reason than being drafted where they were drafted. But I can get anecdotal evidence to say whatever I want, too. 

 

Point is, if Beane and Co. are afraid to pull the trigger on their convictions, they have no business being in the positions they're in. What's that old saying, "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take?" Something like that. 

[DrDawkinstein]

46 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

In this scenario, the person I'm responding to is saying that Rosen and Mayfield are a tier below Darnold and Allen.

 

It absolutely is relevant. It's ridiculous to think that this year is so radically different from the past that trades that generally prove to cost 3-4 times more than the reward is suddenly a worthy investment now, especially considering the volume of options available this season. If anything, the argument should be that with as many options as this year's QB class has, trading up should be expected to carry even less value because the volume will likely push worthy draft picks down lower.

 

To be clear, I think at least 3 of, if not all of, Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, and Allen are Top Tier. I believe QBs will go 1,2,3 this year, and the 4th drafted by pick #6.

 

I don't want to settle for 2nd Tier, and I dont even want to be last in line for first tier. If you have to trade up again anyways, may as well go for your guy.

 

None of us know as much about these guys as the pros, so Im not going to argue who is the best prospect. I do expect Beane to know that, and I also expect him to do everything he can to go and get that guy. Anything else is settling for mediocrity and more of what this franchise has seen in the past.

 

 

 

Edited April 19, 2018 by DrDawkinstein

[Dr. Who]

40 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

To be clear, I think at least 3 of, if not all of, Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, and Allen are Top Tier. I believe QBs will go 1,2,3 this year, and the 4th drafted by pick #6.

 

I don't want to settle for 2nd Tier, and I dont even want to be last in line for first tier. If you have to trade up again anyways, may as well go for your guy.

 

None of us know as much about these guys as the pros, so Im not going to argue who is the best prospect. I do expect Beane to know that, and I also expect him to do everything he can to go and get that guy. Anything else is settling for mediocrity and more of what this franchise has seen in the past.

 

 

 

Not sure qb goes at 2 if Cleveland takes Darnold, but I agree with your basic sentiment.  Problem is Cleveland and Giants may prove intransigent with regards to trading 2 or 4 (I don't think 1 is in play.)  We have the resources to move up, but maybe noone ends up a seller.

[KDIGGZ]

 

[PIZ]

11 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

 

 

I'm following this guy too.  Is he a legit insider?

 

[JaCrispy]

So, we trade up to 6/7, then to #2...we got this.

[transplantbillsfan]

2 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

So, we trade up to 6/7, then to #2...we got this.

 

Figured this would be the move the Giants would want most. The thing is, we gotta get all of it worked out and maybe completed before the draft, not during.

[KDIGGZ]

8 minutes ago, PIZ said:

 

I'm following this guy too.  Is he a legit insider?

 

Probably not but he has been on wgr and he's slightly more reliable than the kid from cheektowaga whose boss is friends with Brandon

[YoloinOhio]

11 minutes ago, PIZ said:

 

I'm following this guy too.  Is he a legit insider?

 

He also posted that the Barkley stuff isn’t true and they have honed in on Quenton Nelson. Which would really be a great pick for them and fit with Gettleman’s hog Mollie thing. Anyway, he’s slotted right to go right  around 6-7. And then you have Ballard basically saying he’s ok to go to 12. I could see a trade to Colts sometime this week prior to the draft, and then up to 2 if their guy is there on draft night.

Edited April 22, 2018 by YoloinOhio

[PIZ]

5 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I could see a trade to Colts sometime this week prior to the draft, and then up to 2 if their guy is there on draft night.

 

That would be awesome and would be a sign the agreement with Giants could be real.  Any idea what it would cost to go from 12 to 6?  Then 6 to 2?  Would the Bills have any picks left after 2 trade ups?

 

Where is all of this Dolphins looking to trade up with the Colts coming from?  Is there desird for a QB real?

 

 

[KDIGGZ]

1 minute ago, PIZ said:

 

That would be awesome and would be a sign the agreement with Giants could be real.  Any idea what it would cost to go from 12 to 6?  Then 6 to 2?  Would the Bills have any picks left after 2 trade ups?

 

It will be costly!

 

Trade to 6 might be: 12, 22, 65

Trade to 2 might be: 6, 53, next year's 1st

 

We are basically getting tag teamed by 2 teams knowing we are desperate to do the deal. We would be overpaying by a lot

[John from Riverside]

6 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

It will be costly!

 

Trade to 6 might be: 12, 22, 65

Trade to 2 might be: 6, 53, next year's 1st

 

We are basically getting tag teamed by 2 teams knowing we are desperate to do the deal. We would be overpaying by a lotet

Lets just get to 5 or 6 and see who is on the board.......

[Boatdrinks]

29 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

It will be costly!

 

Trade to 6 might be: 12, 22, 65

Trade to 2 might be: 6, 53, next year's 1st

 

We are basically getting tag teamed by 2 teams knowing we are desperate to do the deal. We would be overpaying by a lot

According to " the chart" 12 to 5 is Bills pick at 12 +  2 second rounders . So 12, 53, 56 sounds about the right # of points. 

[KDIGGZ]

3 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

According to " the chart" 12 to 5 is Bills pick at 12 +  2 second rounders . So 12, 53, 56 sounds about the right # of points. 

Doesn't work like that when it's for a QB unfortunately

[Pbomb]

3 hours ago, kdiggz said:

Doesn't work like that when it's for a QB unfortunately

According to the chart the rams and eagles didnt overpay

[aristocrat]

7 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

According to " the chart" 12 to 5 is Bills pick at 12 +  2 second rounders . So 12, 53, 56 sounds about the right # of points. 

 

The colts have three seconds this year right? Do they really want 5? I’d say a second this year and one next year. 

[cle23]

2 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

 

The colts have three seconds this year right? Do they really want 5? I’d say a second this year and one next year. 

Take the 2 this year and start packaging them to move up back into the 1st.

[Chuck Wagon]

IMO people are reading the Chad Forbes tweet wrong. He’s saying trade down, then back up. Ie Giants trade 2 to 12 then back to 6 or 7. 

 

I think that move would be a lot cheaper for them then us doing the work. Right now you’ve potentially got Miami / Buffalo / Arizona / etc jockeying for position on a QB. But if we go to 2, that could dry the QB market up for 6/7, giving a lot less competition on a trade package back up. 

[YoloinOhio]

31 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

IMO people are reading the Chad Forbes tweet wrong. He’s saying trade down, then back up. Ie Giants trade 2 to 12 then back to 6 or 7. 

 

I think that move would be a lot cheaper for them then us doing the work. Right now you’ve potentially got Miami / Buffalo / Arizona / etc jockeying for position on a QB. But if we go to 2, that could dry the QB market up for 6/7, giving a lot less competition on a trade package back up. 

It all depends on who is motivated more to do the trades. If NYG and Colts really want to trade down because they want additional picks and have players identified they think will be there at those drop down spots, and the Bills can convince them they would be ok staying at 12 and aren’t desperate, they will get a better deal. If the other teams know the Bills are the most motivated party and they aren’t all that hell bent on getting more picks, it will take more to make it happen. 

Edited April 22, 2018 by YoloinOhio

[26CornerBlitz]

The Giants don't seem to want to trade down unless they get an offer they can't refuse

Gettleman wasn't kidding when he said he expected to get a "gold jacket" player at No. 2, which is why he also said "you can't get too cute" at that spot. Passing on a potential Hall-of-Famer to accumulate a couple of extra second- or third-rounders would seem to be the definition of getting "too cute." So they probably won't. Asked about the possibility of a trade down, one team source said "Why would we do that and pass on either the best quarterback or best player on our board?" Good question. And if they do it, don't expect them to drop very far. Pick 6 or 7 would seem to be the floor. I'm doubtful they'd drop lower than 5.

[JaCrispy]

I’m just pissed off that the Colts are willing to trade down again when we could have just gotten their pick to begin with.  I thought the whole point of them trading with the Jets was because they didn’t want to drop down too far.

Edited April 22, 2018 by JaCrispy

[YoloinOhio]

5 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

I’m just pissed off that the Colts are willing to trade down again when we could have just gotten their pick to begin with.  I thought the whole point of them trading with the Jets was because they didn’t want to drop down too far.

They may have thought they could double dip (they can)... and/or the  Bills may not have wanted to do a deal that early. 

[purple haze]

11 hours ago, kdiggz said:

It will be costly!

 

Trade to 6 might be: 12, 22, 65

Trade to 2 might be: 6, 53, next year's 1st

 

We are basically getting tag teamed by 2 teams knowing we are desperate to do the deal. We would be overpaying by a lot

I keep seeing people (fans) say Bills are desperate to do a deal.  No they are not.  some fans are desperate to see them do a deal.  If Beane were that desperate he could have already given away all the picks necessary to make a deal long before now; the proverbial offer Gettleman can't refuse.  Nothing about Beane's M.O. suggests he operates out of desperation; that dude is cold blooded.

 

if he sat still and picked at 12 I wouldn't be surprised at all.

Edited April 22, 2018 by purple haze

[KDIGGZ]

Just now, purple haze said:

I keep seeing people (fans) say Bills are desperate to do a deal.  No they are not.  some fans are desperate to see them do a deal.  If Beane were that desperate he could have already given away all the picks necessary to make a deal long before now; the proverbial offer Gettleman can't refuse.  Nothing about Beane's M.O. suggests he operates out of desperation; that dude is cold blooded.

Bills are completely desperate. It's been reported they already offered 3 1st round picks for #2 and Giants turned it down. You can't trade up if you don't have a willing partner no matter how crazy the offer is

[purple haze]

11 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

Bills are completely desperate. It's been reported they already offered 3 1st round picks for #2 and Giants turned it down. You can't trade up if you don't have a willing partner no matter how crazy the offer is

No.  Complete desperation is giving Gettleman what he wants.  Desperation is giving him the offer he can't refuse. Three 1s to go from 12 to 2 is fair enough when asking a team to go from a blue chip talent to a (perceived) lesser talent.   Teams picking higher than the Bills are now have given up more draft capital to jump up less spots.

 

Desperation would be offering 12, 22, 53, 65, a 2019 1st and 3rd and a 2020 3rd.   I bet Gettleman would not refuse that.  But that would be a bad deal.  Beane is no fool.  Not even for one of these QBs.  

 

But a willing trade partner is key is key and why I won't be surprised to see Beane keep all our picks and take the BPA.

Edited April 22, 2018 by purple haze