Bills GM: Not certain we move up to take QB

[Lfod]

Sure I understand nothing is certain. You go sky diving it isn't certain your parachute will open. Yet there you are on the plane with the gear on and you look ready to jump.

Edited March 16, 2018 by Lfod

[JoeF]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Do I think they'll trade up?   Yes.   

 

Do I think Beane is lying about not knowing if he will trade up?  No.

 

In my experience, I've heard very few GMs talk in such an open and straightforward manner as Beane does.   Here's what he said:

 

I haven't focused on the draft.  Until now I've been focused on free agency.   We evaluate potential free agents more or less the way we put together a draft board, figuring out what each guy is worth to us.   That's what I've been doing.

 

Now I will begin to focus on the draft.   I don't know nearly enough about any of the top players, and I will by the time the draft comes.   We will put a value on each guy.   We haven't done that. 

 

When we know how good each guy is, then we can talk to teams to find out what they want for their picks and we can decide whether we think it's worth what they want to get the guy we we want.   I don't know whether there's a deal to be made or not, because I don't enough about the players and I don't know yet what teams at the top of the draft want. 

 

What part of that don't you believe?

 

The question no one asked, which he would have ducked, is given what you know now about the QBs, what do you think the chances are you'll trade up?    I'd say 80%.   I'd guess he'd say the same.   That's what I'd like to know.   

 

Here's the thing:  I don't think any one of the rookies has a resume that looks like Luck's or Newton's coming out of college.   None of these guys has the same high probability of success that those guys had.   If I'm right about that, then the teams that need QBs aren't going to be so excited about trading up.   And the teams that are up there already that need QBs may not be so anxious to roll the dice.  

 

Look at the extreme year, when EJ and Geno were generally the two highest rated guys coming out.   There was no stampede to trade up; in fact, as you know, the Bills traded DOWN and still got the guy they wanted.   

 

So maybe Beane isn't all that impressed with these guys.   Maybe he actually IS content to sit at 12 and take the best QB left on the board.   Maybe he likes that better than coughing up his 22d pick and a second round pick.   That doesn't seem to be a completely crazy prospect.  

 

On the other hand, how likely is it that he already knows he loves a guy so much he's going to the top of the draft to get him?   Looking at the rookies we're talking about, I don't think it's very likely. 

 

In other words, I think he's telling the truth when he says he doesn't know if he's trading up.  

 

 

That was the most cogent, straight-forward, succinct and intelligent press conference a Bills GM has given in the on-line era.  Beane is not only privy but he is directing the evaluation process.  For example, he admitted they make calls on guys they have no interest in just to gauge the value of a player with similar skills.  He talked about having a floor (bargain price) and a ceiling for every UFA in whom they are interested.  Fascinating process  -- things we knew but never said publicly before.

 

Really like Beane and McDermott....

[njbuff]

Translation....................

 

The Bills wanna move up creatively and not try and give up too much draft capital.

 

Don't know how they can do that, but they will try.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

58 minutes ago, prissythecat said:

Would everyone's head explode if the Bills don't trade up to get a QB.  

Their is so much talent in this draft class and it's not in the form of elite talent but very good players into the 4th rd. If we hit on a lot of good players with all our picks and upgrade key positions we could easily make a playoff run. Other teams are going to be asking for most of our early picks to move up. I would be fine with staying at 12 and infusing this roster with talent. 

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, Steptide said:

It's the safe answer. Typical gm speak. You start saying you're gonna move up, other teams will start asking you to sell the farm to get their pick. Bean is smart

 

It's the old negging technique. Don't act that interested in the product so that the cost goes down. I don't think it will work necessarily but it is the appropriate move. 

[GoBills808]

[Reed83HOF]

Benjamin Allbright Retweeted

Nick Wojton‏ @Nick_Wojton 4h4 hours ago

Post-presser Brandon Beane confirms he's met with QB prospects Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield & Josh Allen, specifically, at either the combine or Senior Bowl. #Bills

 

[Punching Bag]

1 hour ago, simool said:

I wonder if the Bills drug test front office employees?

 

More useful to drug test posters.

 

Mccarron was a QB with a pedigree which played for a good coach and good team.  Before the draft they will sit with him like they would a draft pick and determine what they have. Now that he is signed me may tell them what he thinks his strengths are, his weaknesses are and what the Bills can help him with.  I looked but did not see anyone on our staff who worked with him in Cinci which is a shame.

[Jay_Fixit]

They might not. 

 

There’s a good chance that a QB they want isn’t gone by then.

 

The draft has a lot of potential studs that other teams may covet above QB.

 

I’m just saying...

[BigPappy]

1 hour ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

I don't hate Jackson.

I would hate if we traded up to #12 to take Jackson.

If they can't move up more to take their tops choice, They will pick best on the board at 12 and take Jackson at 22. I don't see them taking Jackson at 12 when they know he will be there at 22. I'm not certain he will be there in round two though when we pick again.

[Punching Bag]

1 hour ago, Nanker said:

FIFY

That might possibly satisfy some of the fans around here.

 

Yea but some  are satisfied with being plastered and jumping onto burning table.

You do not want to appeal to the Cro-Magnons in Bills fandom or press.  

[aristocrat]

Do they feel mccarron can play at a Case Keenum level and all those picks turn us into a Vikings  type team just stacked with talent 

[SouthNYfan]

13 minutes ago, BigPappy said:

If they can't move up more to take their tops choice, They will pick best on the board at 12 and take Jackson at 22. I don't see them taking Jackson at 12 when they know he will be there at 22. I'm not certain he will be there in round two though when we pick again.

 

Exactly.

I would be mad if they took him at 12

Edited March 16, 2018 by SouthNYfan
Fixed 22 to 12

[xRUSHx]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Sooooo.... here's an interesting statement by Beane that, to me, might be a slip by Beane that the Bills are targeting Lamar Jackson:

 

"There are some guys that we were talking about right before we went to the combine with our scouts, and I'm like, 'We're wasting our time with this guy. He ain't falling to 21. This guy is a top-10, 12 -- he ain't getting past 15."

 

15, huh? 

 

Who has been the team most linked to Lamar Jackson?

 

Just try googling "team most likely to draft Lamar Jackson" and right now this is the 1st link:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/draftwire.usatoday.com/2018/02/04/2018-nfl-mock-draft-lamar-jackson-carson-palmer-cardinals/amp/

 

Very interesting. I still think we're pretty clearly moving up, but specifically referencing the Cardinals draft spot might be a sign. 

 

Mayfield/Darnold/Rosen in a trade up or Jackson at 12 and I'm stoked!!!!

Jackson at 12, no thanks, I am so done with Tyrod type running around. Those skrony legs will never survive in the NFL IMO. No reason to move up in the draft for a QB if all your going to do is draft a 2 year project.

 

Blows my mind Allen is ranked so high, his agent is doing a hell of a job getting people to prop him up. I truly wish Cleveland or some other team jumps on him and leaves us a a chance at Rosen, Darnold,Mayfield, nobody else matters.

 

It would sure be Billsy if they did all this moving in the draft just to take Allen/Jackson though, maybe we should expect the scraps, we should be used to that by now. Rudolph is a much better prospect @12 then these 2 IMO.

Edited March 16, 2018 by xRUSHx

[BillsVet]

9 minutes ago, JoeF said:

That was the most cogent, straight-forward, succinct and intelligent press conference a Bills GM has given in the on-line era.  Beane is not only privy but he is directing the evaluation process.  For example, he admitted they make calls on guys they have no interest in just to gauge the value of a player with similar skills.  He talked about having a floor (bargain price) and a ceiling for every UFA in whom they are interested.  Fascinating process  -- things we knew but never said publicly before.

 

Really like Beane and McDermott....

 

There were questions about who was in charge of the football side at OBD not long ago. That discussion is really moot because it's clear Beane has his role and so does McDermott.

This is not the classic GM-HC relationship that some fans who are stuck in the 90s still think is required. 

 

It's so refreshing to have a GM stand up there and respond like Beane did. Yeah, there will be subterfuge, but I have confidence Beane and McDermott have a plan and are implementing it. 

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

They might not. 

 

There’s a good chance that a QB they want isn’t gone by then.

 

The draft has a lot of potential studs that other teams may covet above QB.

 

I’m just saying...The Bills will be moving up to 4 and drafting Rosen. TTYL.

[Misterbluesky]

16 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

They might not. 

 

There’s a good chance that a QB they want isn’t gone by then.

 

The draft has a lot of potential studs that other teams may covet above QB.

 

I’m just saying...

With nearly 100 mill in cap space next year...might the beane counter be thinking Matt Ryan in 2019???????

[Punching Bag]

26 minutes ago, BigPappy said:

If they can't move up more to take their tops choice, They will pick best on the board at 12 and take Jackson at 22. I don't see them taking Jackson at 12 when they know he will be there at 22. I'm not certain he will be there in round two though when we pick again.

 

19 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Exactly.

I would be mad if they took him at 12

 

Know? Impossible. Some teams "knew" players would available and then someone made an unexpected move.

 

Mad? Some are mad all the time. Not a factor.

 

I do not want GM to base his picks on what mocks say (there is a reason they are called mocker, creators should be mocked) or what will make fans not mad.

[Canadian Bills Fan]

32 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 

 

Smoke pick?

[Punching Bag]

11 minutes ago, Misterbluesky said:

With nearly 100 mill in cap space next year...might the beane counter be thinking Matt Ryan in 2019???????

 

The Bean Counter is Jim Overdorf; I am hoping the bean counter will be thinking "I need to find a job".

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

That's like 9 players...BFD(Big F'in Deal)

ROTFLMAO   

1 hour ago, Billsmisery said:

Terrible song 

that's true but Beans is taking us for a wild ride thus far this season 

 

5 minutes ago, Canadian Bills Fan said:

 

 

Smoke pick?

Smoke Screen was what I thought.  I don't follow b-ball 

[Misterbluesky]

1 minute ago, Limeaid said:

 

The Bean Counter is Jim Overdorf; I am hoping the bean counter will be thinking "I need to find a job".

Overdorf-Mathematical Lord.GM-Talent evaluator and Beane counter.

[Doc]

I agree with him: it's not certain.  They have Peterman, who they've been developing.  They signed McCarron.  They have offered a 2nd rounder to Philly for Foles which they could increase as the draft unfolds.   There is no need to advertise that they're moving up and should instead be telling teams that they have options.

Edited March 16, 2018 by Doc

[Canadian Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

 

Smoke Screen was what I thought.  I don't follow b-ball 

 

 

I know buddy I was messing with ya

[SouthNYfan]

15 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

 

Know? Impossible. Some teams "knew" players would available and then someone made an unexpected move.

 

Mad? Some are mad all the time. Not a factor.

 

I do not want GM to base his picks on what mocks say (there is a reason they are called mocker, creators should be mocked) or what will make fans not mad.

 

A GM's job is to win, and to make his fans happy (which winning generally does obv)

Pissing fans off though is not generally a good idea as whole.

And no I'm not mad all the time, I like our moves so far, but if we take Jackson at #12 I think myself and a huge chunk of fans will be very upset with the team. 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, JoeF said:

That was the most cogent, straight-forward, succinct and intelligent press conference a Bills GM has given in the on-line era.  Beane is not only privy but he is directing the evaluation process.  For example, he admitted they make calls on guys they have no interest in just to gauge the value of a player with similar skills.  He talked about having a floor (bargain price) and a ceiling for every UFA in whom they are interested.  Fascinating process  -- things we knew but never said publicly before.

 

Really like Beane and McDermott....

That's what I heard, too.   A guy in charge who shares what he can and tells you when he can't.  We can learn something about his job by listening to him tell us what he's thinking.  

 

On top of that, what he says makes sense.   That's REALLY refreshing.  

[Reed83HOF]

7 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

That's what I heard, too.   A guy in charge who shares what he can and tells you when he can't.  We can learn something about his job by listening to him tell us what he's thinking.  

 

On top of that, what he says makes sense.   That's REALLY refreshing.  

[Wily Dog]

Trust the Process. We have not seen  a GM since the Polian or Butler days , that gets us players and makes us better, You do not, or I do not know what Beane is going to do, but he will lead us to the draft and will trade up to get us a QB , if that's want is in the cards. I do not think there is one of you on this board that could be in Beane's  position and successfully trade up without giving away the store. We can vilify the picks , as fans do , but it is always on Monday morning. It is fun to speculate on players , but the people on the board that positively say that ,  if they take a player that is not one they want ,that " they are all done with the Bill's." And who appointed you GM. I am all in with McBeane , with what they have done last year and of what they then have done this year. 

 

[AmishRifle]

After listening to the presser I think Beane and staff will set the values for the draft and stay within their board.  I really do believe that he’s ready to roll with McCarron as a very feasible contingency if trading up just doesn’t meet the value of their board for the player, assumed to be QB, that they are targeting.  I like the approach.  

[Wily Dog]

3 minutes ago, AmishRifle said:

After listening to the presser I think Beane and staff will set the values for the draft and stay within their board.  I really do believe that he’s ready to roll with McCarron as a very feasible contingency if trading up just doesn’t meet the value of their board for the player, assumed to be QB, that they are targeting.  I like the approach.  

I think that they are going to trade up to get "their " QB . McDermott will evaluate which QB, between Peterman and McCarron , through camp and preseason. The result will be our QB for 2018.

[Doc]

11 minutes ago, AmishRifle said:

After listening to the presser I think Beane and staff will set the values for the draft and stay within their board.  I really do believe that he’s ready to roll with McCarron as a very feasible contingency if trading up just doesn’t meet the value of their board for the player, assumed to be QB, that they are targeting.  I like the approach.  

 

Yup.  They aren't going to get fleeced trading up.  It will have to be in-line with other trade-ups in the past. 

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

2 hours ago, Mrbojanglezs said:

Anyone else scared another team is going to fleece us on the trade up deal because it's obvious that we are banking on that for our answer at qb?

Yes, their are so many good players we could draft with those picks. For us to get into the top 3 we are going to give up most of our high draft picks. If we keep our draft picks we could get 3 or 4 starters out of this class and draft a Possible QB like Rudolph, Falk or Lauretta with the 1st pick in the 3rd rd. 

[maryland-bills-fan]

3 hours ago, Canadian Bills Fan said:

I cant shake this feeling that we will trade into the top 3 before draft day

No way. If we trade up to the top 3 before draft day, anybody who wants the same guy can trade up to the top 2 and beat us there. Also, you would have to way overpay.  The teams holding the pick will see their best offers when they are on the clock and somebody is really desperate.  If you overpay by half, they will take it ahead of time and you are still not sure of getting your guy.  Have you ever played poker?

3 hours ago, TigerJ said:

In the NFL, unless you're signing a free agent for whom there is no competition, every move a team makes depends in part on at least one other team, and often on multiple teams.  I imagine that in the Bills' perfect world, Beane wants to move up, but he has to have contingency plans in place for various possible events in the draft.  To trade up, first you have to have another team in the right spot that is interested in trading down.  Right now, I would guess there are probably three spots Buffalo is interested in trading into in order to get the QB they want, maybe four.  We assume the Colts are interested in trading out of #3.  Maybe all three teams are interested in trading (Cleveland times 2, NY Giants and Indy).  Maybe not.  Second, Beane has in mind a price he's willing to pay.  The teams that may be interested in trading undoubtedly have a price they want to receive.  Invariably, the team interested in trading down has a higher price in mind for their pick than their prospective trading partner has in mind for trading up.  At this point in time, that's probably the biggest fly in the ointment.  Whether or not it gets resolved depends on how motivated buy and seller are to settle on a price that both can live with.  For Beane,  his wiggle room probably depends on how he views all the top QBs.  If there is only one QB he thinks he can live with, he has to play a dangerous game.  If there are four or five he thinks can develop into the franchise guy Buffalo has lacked to way too long, his price to move up probably doesn't have a whole lot of wiggle room because he'll figure he can get one of his guys at #12, or maybe even at #22.  If all that is true, I can see why he said what he said.  There are no plans in place to move up, or maybe more accurately, there are plans in place to try and move up, and plans in place to stand pat, if that's how the draft works out.

Something people are IGNORING is that, maybe,,, just maybe.... the teams you are thinking of moving up with and trading with, may want that same player themselves?  (are we that much smarter than them?).   OR, they might like where they are sitting and want to use the pick themselves to get a player that they want.   Maybe they want the best RB that has appeared in the past several years.  Maybe they like a really really good defensive end?  Maybe they want one of the QB's- maybe not the same one as us.  If so- then no trade. Maybe for our entire draft and our 1st round picks for the rest of the decade.

3 hours ago, Batman1876 said:

The other teams have 1 team who can give them multiple picks this year, we have 3 teams to trade with (NY, Indy, Cleveland) so we do have some leverage. 

  If those teams want to trade down.

 

[Bangarang]

4 hours ago, Figster said:

McCarron gives Buffalo more options IMO

 

I realize a big part of the Bills fan base have already put all their eggs in one basket on a complete unknown at this point, but that may not be the case with McD/Beane.

 

McD is a D guru...

 

They are moving up for a QB. McCarron doesn’t change that.

[maryland-bills-fan]

I worked in a technical industry and we often had to work out strategies in situations that were somewhat similar.  A lot of posters are working from the following plan:  figure out who you want and then pay as much as you can to get him from whoever you can.  Regardless of the price or what other damage it does.  Or they fixate on making a trade with a certain team and try to figure out what they would take.   Have you ever been to a country auction?   The first rule is to decide what you max bid is for an item, BEFORE the bidding starts. Rule 2 is get your lower bid in at the right time, so that you can make a bid at your max. (NOT 10% more!)

 

I think they should do the following. 

Step One.  set up the following chart. Players listed in order of priority. (For lower rounds a player might be listed several times, early if we can get him cheap, later if we have to pay a good price. For very top notch players that we really need the player is list at max price first and we expect not to get him cheaper)

 

PLAYER...............position.............................What he is worth to us

======================================================

Player A...................QB..........................#12,  #22,  #53, #56  2019 #1

Player B...................QB...........................#12, #22,  #53  #56

Player C...................QB..............................#12, #22,  #53

Player D....................DE.............................#12,  #58

....................

Player E..................xx................................#12

..................

 

Step Two

If you know you can work out a trade at a draft spot that makes it SURE that your guy will be there, you can make the trade up a little bit ahead of time.  (Example: the #1 pick, or the first X number of teams are surely locked into their guy- and you traded for the next spot).  If there are going to be some backup players who you wouldn't also mind drafting in that spot- well you can be happy about this because there is less risk.  If the situation doesn't allow this, then go to step three.  You would be a fool to sell the farm because you just know that Fred Smith is going to be available at pick 6, overpay for the slot to make sure and have no player equally valuable to you as plan B,,,  and then find that Fred Smith was taken at pick 4.

 

Step Three

You might discuss with other teams, to some level of detail, what you are interested in and what might they take for a trade.  If you are in competition with a possible trade partner, well that is going to be a guarded conversation.

IF your guy IS ON THE BOARD WHEN A TEAM IS "ON THE CLOCK" YOU CALL UP AND MADE YOUR BID FROM Step 1.  You don't have to start with the max bid listed in the chart, but that is the MAX you will pay.  If they tell you to go pound sand, then it's sorry, see you later.

 

Step Four

As the top  guys come off your list (if they do) you cross off Player A and start trying to trade up for Player B and offer up what you have listed in Step 1, to the next team on the clock.

 

 

It is a simple procedure, but a GM can not say ahead of time, exactly what he is going to do.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 16, 2018 by maryland-bills-fan

[maryland-bills-fan]

I came across this post on another thread. Notice the bullet item I have colored/bolded below.  We will not see this worked out before the draft because they won't let us (and the world) see their "value" board and it ain't going happen until the draft is actually running.

 

 

AmishRifle

Posted 6 hours ago

Beane Presser Takeaways (please feel free to add more as I know I missed some)

--Wished Tyrod well and said he'll be rooting for him except when he's playing Buffalo

--Thanked all of his Scouts and Staff for their preparation on Free Agency

--Admitted that the salary cap will not support any further large Free Agent signings, you may see small depth signings.  "Nothing to make the ticker"

--Believes in building strong, attacking Defensive Line and protecting Offensive Line (Explaining the DT and DE signings).  Aligns with McDermott on this.

--Eric Wood remains in same status.  Has become a back burner issue with Free Agency and Draft prep.

--Emphatically stated that he hasn't completed his prep of potential draftees.  His sole focus now is draft preparation.  

--Skirted the trade up questions with the statement above on not being able to reach a decision yet as the draft preparation is not complete.

--Alluded to the notion that they could in fact stay at 12 and get a very good player.

--Talked openly of his philosophy of not chasing players, about setting value as in floor and ceiling, and not going outside of that value.

--Sees McCarron as having an opportunity to compete for starting position.  Called several coaches, including Marvin Lewis, before making his decision.

--Stated that they are using a very methodical approach to decision making.

--Stated that he's never comfortable with a roster (Answer to "are you comfortable with your wide receivers" question)

--Happy to get Richie Incognito restructured.  Coming off Pro Bowl year.  Important to do.  Not much detail on the restructure.

 

Again, feel free to add for those that couldn't listen.

Edited March 16, 2018 by maryland-bills-fan

[JPP]

Didnt read through all the pages but did someone happen to say "smoke screen"

[Buddo]

I think the idea of sticking to their 'range' of values, is quite interesting. While it is obviously, to an extent, a function of finding a trade partner, the move up to #12, could be relatively specific, in that it might be around the pick # where two possible QB choices, intersect.

 

While this is just an example, it could be that they value Darnold from say #9, and Allen from #12 , and they think that either one of them might be available there. That wouldn't preclude a move up if the player and price was right, but it does give them, in theory, an outside shot at a QB they would be prepared to draft, at #12, while still keeping the rest of their picks. If you like, a base position from which to talk, but one at which you could still get what you see as a viable QB, just not your favored one.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

24 minutes ago, JPP said:

Didnt read through all the pages but did someone happen to say "smoke screen"

What’s the smoke from???

Weed or Gugs smoker? 

 

Beane has been very very um “creative” with his wordplay in his pressers.   

 

 

[Big Turk]

5 hours ago, Mrbojanglezs said:

Ya but we are not in a position of power, we have a lot of picks and we want a qb, all the other teams know this. If they really like a guy at 2,3,4 they are going to want to get compensated, likely a lot more than the "value charts"

How were we in a position of power with Tyrod when the entire league knew he was going to get cut before we paid him that bonus??

Edited March 16, 2018 by matter2003