Why we don't want to draft one of the top 4 QB

[Hapless Bills Fan]

This is a post for all you "trade the farm and draft Darnold.  Or Rosen.  or Mayfield.  or Allen.  Just, one of those TOP GUYS!

No.  Don't.  If there's one guy you really think is worth it and you can trade up and get him, Do It.  But don't do it just because one of those guys must be best.

 

Why not? Because, Draft History.

 

What Draft History says is that there may be 1-4 good QB in this draft class -  BUT THEY ARE VERY UNLIKELY INDEED TO BE DRAFTED IN THAT ORDER.

 

I looked at the drafts from 2016-2012.  I previously used 3 numerical criteria correlated to winning, to sort drafted QB as "yes" or "no".  Now I summed the criteria and sorted the "yes" QB drafted in Rounds 1-5 according to that numerical value.  (The point is to have some objective performance criteria over a guy's career and not be swayed by reputation/draft position.  Most will splutter and go but but but at some point...go look at the guy's whole performance, 'K?)

 

The criteria used were completion %/10 (to put in the same numeric scale), Y/A, and TD/INT ratio.

 

Here are the rankings, THE ORDER IN WHICH THE QB WAS DRAFTED, and his draft position, going back class by class:

2016: Prescott (8th QB, 4th round, Pick 126), Goff (1st QB, Rd 1 Pick 1), Wentz (2nd QB, Rd 1 Pick 2)

2015: Mariota (2nd, Rd 1 Pick 2) Winston (1st, Rd Pick 1)

2014: Garoppolo (5th QB, Rd 2 Pick 62), Derek Carr (4th QB, Rd 2 Pick 36),  [both these guys fail 1 criteria: Teddy Bridgewater (2nd QB, Rd 1 Pick 32), Blake Bortles (1st QB, Rd 1 Pick 1)]

2013: no "yes" hits.  Glennon scores highest (3rd QB, Rd 3 Pick 73)

2012: Wilson (6th QB, Rd 3 Pick 75),  Cousins (8th QB, Rd 4, Pick 102) Griffin (2nd QB, Rd 1 Pick 2) Foles (7th QB, Rd 3 Pick 88) Luck (1st QB, Rd 1 Pick 1) Tannehill (3rd QB, Rd 1 Pick 8)

 

You can argue with the details (Griffin's data is biased by his 1st 2 years, Luck's is impacted by his 2015 and rookie seasons) and if everyone gets healthy and younger QB keep developing, the details may change in 3 years.

 

The overall point won't change:

1) the odds of getting a good QB are highest in the first 2 picks of the draft

2) there are still good QB to be had after that - but the odds are very much against them falling in the order drafted.  It may not be a mistake to take the #3 or even #4 QB in the draft - but you better do it based upon a careful evaluation of his talent, not because "gotta getta QB and the 1st round is where it's at!" 

 

That's how you draft JP Losman when just maybe you'd have been better off drafting Steve Jackson and picking up Matt Schaub in the 3rd. 

 

I'm not the professional football talent evaluator.  What's important is that

1) we have first-rate football talent evaluation in place, and continually work to improve our talent evaluation and scouting

2) they be free to do their job, unhindered by any input/interference from marketing or ownership

3) they take a shot at a guy they like, and if he isn't "all that", keep taking shots in subsequent years.

 

So please don't have a cow if the Bills trade up to #8 pre-draft and then don't draft a QB (because the guy they liked went sooner), or because they pass on the Wonderboy all the Pundits rated as #1 or #3 in favor of a 3rd round pick. 

 

Because there is an element of chance, and history says that the QB are unlikely to wind up being drafted in the order of their eventual NFL performance.

 

Edited February 18, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[SoTier]

Good analysis.     I will be happy if the Bills do both 1)  &  2) under the evaluation paragraph.   If they decide to pass on a QB in the first round and take somebody in the 2nd or 3rd, as long as they do it for the right reasons, I'm good with that.

[boater]

37 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

...

The overall point won't change:

1) the odds of getting a good QB are highest in the first 2 picks of the draft

...

 

I just read another op-ed (Bills road map to trading up) that said the top 4 picks are good enough.

 

Quote

Of the remaining 45 1st round quarterbacks, 20 have been taken in the first four picks. Those 20 QBs have produced 14 "hits" and six "misses".

 

I'd be OK if the Bills traded into the top four for Mayfield/Rosen/Darnold.

 

Agree with the tone of your post: don't freak out if the football people do their thing, and that thing may not be a QB.

[hondo in seattle]

I think all NFL talent evaluators know not to pick a QB high in the draft just because the club needs a QB.

But sometimes they talk themselves into it anyway.  They feel stress - the stress from within themselves, the stress from management, the stress from fans and media.  GMs without franchise QBs know they've got to find one and that can make them a little more optimistic about a QB's upside and less cynical about his flaws than they ought to be.

 

Many fans are thinking we've got to get a top QB in the draft.  If Beane thinks this way, the possibility of a bad pick doubles, triples. 

 

We've got to hope Beane remains dispassionate and level-headed in his first draft.

Edited February 18, 2018 by hondo in seattle

[SoTier]

5 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

I think all NFL talent evaluators know not to pick a QB high in the draft just because the club needs a QB.

But sometimes they talk themselves into it anyway.  They feel stress - the stress from within themselves, the stress from management, the stress from fans and media.  GMs without franchise QBs know they've got to find one and that can make them a little more optimistic about a QB's upside and less cynical about his flaws than they ought to be.

 

We've got to hope Beane remains dispassionate and level-headed in his first draft.

 

  Well said. 

[Dr. Who]

4 minutes ago, boater said:

 

I just read another op-ed (Bills road map to trading up) that said the top 4 picks are good enough.

 

 

I'd be OK if the Bills traded into the top four for Mayfield/Rosen/Darnold.

 

Agree with the tone of your post: don't freak out if the football people do their thing, and that thing may not be a QB.

Ahh, I'm not the GM and I'll freak out if I want to.  Seems to me the trading away of assets for picks was designed to set up a move up for qb.  Though I grant the OP is level-headed and it's possible things play out in a manner that precludes the ability to get the guy you want.  What I don't really like is some post I read where a journalist fella opined that McD would be fine using draft capital to improve the D and going with a mediocre vet qb.  No thanks to that plan.  (I like the three qbs you indicate, btw.)

 

[boater]

7 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

.....

We've got to hope Beane remains dispassionate and level-headed in his first draft.

 

I think McBeane et al. will be calm. If draft things don't roll right, the fall back plan will be another year of Tyrod, which while not great, it's not a GM career killer.

[Dr. Who]

Just now, boater said:

 

I think McBeane et al. will be calm. If draft things don't roll right, the fall back plan will be another year of Tyrod, which while not great, it's not a GM career killer.

Another year of Tyrod . . . well, I'll have to increase the alcohol budget.  OBD, save the liver, please.

[SoTier]

13 minutes ago, boater said:

 

I just read another op-ed (Bills road map to trading up) that said the top 4 picks are good enough.

 

 

I'd be OK if the Bills traded into the top four for Mayfield/Rosen/Darnold.

 

Agree with the tone of your post: don't freak out if the football people do their thing, and that thing may not be a QB.

 

If you look at the list of successful top 4 QBs, only Rivers and Ryan were drafted after #2.  The other 12 success were #1s and #2s.  Go high or stay home.

7 minutes ago, boater said:

 

I think McBeane et al. will be calm. If draft things don't roll right, the fall back plan will be another year of Tyrod, which while not great, it's not a GM career killer.

 

In this scenario, I would be okay with them drafting a QB in the 2nd or 3rd on the off chance that lightning might strike.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

18 minutes ago, boater said:

 

I just read another op-ed (Bills road map to trading up) that said the top 4 picks are good enough.

 

"op-ed" = opinion-editorial

I guess it depends upon what they mean by "good enough".  What did it say they meant?

 

In the draft analysis I did from 1998-2016, there were 25 QB drafted in the first 4 picks.

The success rate by the 3 criteria I used was 33% from picks 3-4 (2 of 6) and 50-68% in picks 1-2 (the difference being Cam Newton, Eli Manning, and Donovan McNabb)

 

In addition, per my OP, the point is the best QB in the draft rarely fall in the order drafted.

 

18 minutes ago, boater said:

I'd be OK if the Bills traded into the top four for Mayfield/Rosen/Darnold.

Agree with the tone of your post: don't freak out if the football people do their thing, and that thing may not be a QB.

 

I think one or perhaps two of those 3 are going to be good QB.

[ColoradoBills]

LOL, I'll play.

NEVER draft a QB with the 22nd pick!!!!!!!!!

 

2014	1	22	Johnny Manziel	QB	Texas A&M
2012	1	22	Brandon Weeden	QB	Oklahoma State
2007	1	22	Brady Quinn	QB	Notre Dame
2004	1	22	J.P. Losman	QB	Tulane
2003	1	22	Rex Grossman	QB	Florida

[oldmanfan]

It's a slow time right now and while talking about the draft is about all we have to do, all the different mocks and experts and op-eds don't change the one basic reality going on.  If Beane sees a guy he feels will be the answer at QB, he'll do what he needs to do to get in position to take him.  If not he'll likely get a decent FA and build with all the picks.

 

He has said on a number of occasions they need a QB.  The question is whether he feels one of the guys is a can't miss type and only he knows that. Everything else is just pure conjecture.

[BillsFanForever19]

Looks pretty good in recent history with Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Marcus Mariota, and Jameis Winston...

[Elite Poster]

The stat for hitting on a QB in the top 4 picks is 75%. After that, it's below 50%. 

 

So I'm gonna have to disagree.

 

EDIT: Just saw the pick 3/4 part. Trade to 2 or stay put. I agree with you. 

Edited February 18, 2018 by Elite Poster

[billspro]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

Good analysis.     I will be happy if the Bills do both 1)  &  2) under the evaluation paragraph.   If they decide to pass on a QB in the first round and take somebody in the 2nd or 3rd, as long as they do it for the right reasons, I'm good with that.

 

Join the Mike White in round 2 or 3 bandwagon. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

15 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

The stat for hitting on a QB in the top 4 picks is 75%. After that, it's below 50%.

 

By what metric is it as high as 75%? 

That's a very definitive statement so surely you have something to back it up. 

Years you looked at, criteria you used, QB who hit and missed by your criteria

Linky to a post where you put all that would work.

 

Years were 1998 to 2016.  Pick 1 and 2 is 50-68 % as I make it.  Criteria were completion %, YPA, and TD/INT ratio. 

Hits: Goff, Wentz, Winston, Mariota, Luck, Griffin, Bradford, Stafford,Ryan,Alex Smith,Rivers, Palmer, P. Manning

Debatable (miss one criteria): Newton (completion %), Eli Manning (TD/INT), McNabb (completion %)

Misses: Bortles, Russell, Young, Carr, Harrington, Vick, Couch, Akili Smith, Leaf

Total QB number: 25.

Hits + Debatable: 16

If anyone moves up from the "Miss" list by whatever your criteria may be, don't forget to also demote anyone you don't consider a "Hit" by same criteria.

Edited February 19, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[Zerovoltz]

As a Chiefs fan, the most exciting draft event I have ever seen was last years trade up to 10 so we could draft Mahomes.  ....Even before we knew it was Mahomes, it was pretty well understood that as soon as that trade was made they'd gone up there for Watson or Mahomes.  It was incredible knowing that they had A) Identified "the man" and B) they actually went and did what it took to go get him.  I hope that you all have a similar draft day experience this year...especially since it has been at least somewhat alluded to that by punting on QB last year, the Bills had turned their eyes to this QB draft class and had aquired ammo for it.

[bigK14094]

Based on this line of thinking....top 4 is 75% likely, the Bills missed the boat the year they drafted Darius.......of  course, but, a QB there was the answer.

[Teddy KGB]

Have to trade up.     Failed too hard last year with available QBs at pick 10.  

[Fadingpain]

I started a thread on more or less this very point a couple days ago; not much response to it.

 

Draft order does not dictate Draft Quality.

For sure.

 

 

[SouthNYfan]

18 minutes ago, bigK14094 said:

Based on this line of thinking....top 4 is 75% likely, the Bills missed the boat the year they drafted Darius.......of  course, but, a QB there was the answer.

 

Who was the answer??

 

Gabbert was the best QB taken, Dalton later on.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

LOL, I'll play.

NEVER draft a QB with the 22nd pick!!!!!!!!!

 

2014	1	22	Johnny Manziel	QB	Texas A&M
2012	1	22	Brandon Weeden	QB	Oklahoma State
2007	1	22	Brady Quinn	QB	Notre Dame
2004	1	22	J.P. Losman	QB	Tulane
2003	1	22	Rex Grossman	QB	Florida

 

But Pick #24 is OK

[ColoradoBills]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

But Pick #24 is OK

Yes it is.

Stay away from 25 though!  LOL

[Hapless Bills Fan]

30 minutes ago, bigK14094 said:

Based on this line of thinking....top 4 is 75% likely, the Bills missed the boat the year they drafted Darius.......of  course, but, a QB there was the answer.

 

I still want to know what criterion is used for that.  I Don't Think So.

 

That's misunderstanding the line of thinking...if there's a QB you rate that high, sure, go for it. 

Drafting someone who you don't have that high, doesn't give you better odds.

 

Which of these guys would you like to have had at #3?  Newton was gone

 

Rk	Year	Rnd	Pick		Pos	DrAge	Tm	From	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	College/Univ
1	2011	1	1	Cam Newton	QB	22	CAR	2011	2017	1	3	7	95	109	108	62-45-1	2001	3420	25074	158	94	828	4320	54	Auburn	College Stats
2	2011	1	8	Jake Locker	QB	23	TEN	2011	2014	0	0	1	15	30	23	9-14-0	408	709	4967	27	22	95	644	5	Washington	College Stats
3	2011	1	10	Blaine Gabbert	QB	21	JAX	2011	2017	0	0	3	14	48	45	11-34-0	781	1397	8437	44	43	171	631	3	Missouri	College Stats
4	2011	1	12	Christian Ponder	QB	23	MIN	2011	2014	0	0	3	22	38	36	14-21-1	632	1057	6658	38	36	126	639	7	Florida St.	College Stats
5	2011	2	35	Andy Dalton	QB	23	CIN	2011	2017	0	3	7	71	109	109	63-44-2	2217	3556	25534	167	93	346	1049	18	TCU	College Stats
6	2011	2	36	Colin Kaepernick	QB	23	SFO	2011	2016	0	0	4	45	69	58	28-30-0	1011	1692	12271	72	30	375	2300	13	Nevada	College Stats
7	2011	3	74	Ryan Mallett	QB	23	NWE	2012	2017	0	0	0	4	21	8	3-5-0	190	345	1835	9	10	28	-5	1	Arkansas	College Stats

 

16 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

Who was the answer??

Gabbert was the best QB taken, Dalton later on.

 

"No" to the deer-in-the-headlights statue (Gabbert); Locker >> Gabbert (neither good)

[SoCal Deek]

Having an 'extra' First Round pick is a luxury....and a welcome one after giving up one for Sammy.  The Bills need to take a swing at a QB there and don't look back.  Nothing ventured nothing gained.

[Cripple Creek]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

This is a post for all you "trade the farm and draft Darnold.  Or Rosen.  or Mayfield.  or Allen.  Just, one of those TOP GUYS!

No.  Don't.  If there's one guy you really think is worth it and you can trade up and get him, Do It.  But don't do it just because one of those guys must be best.

 

So you're saying only trade up if you think you're getting a franchise QB?  

[Senth]

We will trade up ....... the only question is ..... how far? $$$$$$$$$$$

[frostbitmic]

1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

LOL, I'll play.

NEVER draft a QB with the 22nd pick!!!!!!!!!

 

2014	1	22	Johnny Manziel	QB	Texas A&M
2012	1	22	Brandon Weeden	QB	Oklahoma State
2007	1	22	Brady Quinn	QB	Notre Dame
2004	1	22	J.P. Losman	QB	Tulane
2003	1	22	Rex Grossman	QB	Florida

I went back as far as the 1960's and didn't find a single QB drafted at #21... Will the Bills be the 1st to try it ?

[SoCal Deek]

3 minutes ago, frostbitmic said:

I went back as far as the 1960's and didn't find a single QB drafted at #21... Will the Bills be the 1st to try it ?

Well than....maybe that's what we've been doing wrong!

[SouthNYfan]

13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

"No" to the deer-in-the-headlights statue (Gabbert); Locker >> Gabbert (neither good)

 

Agreed on your whole post

I was agreeing with you, the guy said that was the year @#3 , but there wasn't much avail with Cam gone

 

Btw locker was not terrible, he was starting to show promise, but injuries derailed his career.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 hours ago, Cripple Creek said:

So you're saying only trade up if you think you're getting a franchise QB?  

 

Oh, for sure.  I'm sure McBeane have 1 or 2 guys they evaluate as "worth it" and are willing to go hard for

 

I'm saying fans should not be all "just trade up as far as you can and draft whatever QB of the ones the pundits rate highly is left"

There may be 3 or 4 good QB in the draft but they are truly very unlikely to be drafted in that order in the 1st. 

 

 

 

Edited February 19, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[ColoradoBills]

12 minutes ago, frostbitmic said:

I went back as far as the 1960's and didn't find a single QB drafted at #21... Will the Bills be the 1st to try it ?

 

10 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Well than....maybe that's what we've been doing wrong!

 

I use Pro Football Reference for all my info.

No QB has ever been drafted at #21.

 

So I guess SoCal this could be fate and our next HOF QB.

 

20, 21, 29, 30, 31 are the only picks never to have a QB.

Of course those last 3 have had the least amount of draft years.

[billsredneck1]

3 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Another year of Tyrod . . . well, I'll have to increase the alcohol budget.  OBD, save the liver, please.

it would be like a flashback of whaley's "we're all in on ej".....goodbye liver

[Thurman#1]

Some drafts are deep. Some are shallow. Some are deep and shallow at certain positions.

 

Like the unbelievably deep WR draft in 2014. The year we traded up for Sammy Watkins. And later end up with another guy from the same draft, Kelvin Benjamin.

 

This year is a deep QB draft. That's not an opinion I came up with myself. It's what the GMs are saying, the pundits, everyone. Those four or five drafts you looked at ... they weren't deep at QB. This one is.

 

And of course a GM should pick the one or two or three guys he thinks he wants, that will fit the team and the scheme and the situation. Of course you shouldn't just grab anyone from the pile. But the reason this draft is different is that it has a bigger bunch of guys with a better shot at success than you have in your usual draft class.

 

 

Edited February 19, 2018 by Thurman#1

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

This is a post for all you "trade the farm and draft Darnold.  Or Rosen.  or Mayfield.  or Allen.  Just, one of those TOP GUYS!

No.  Don't.  If there's one guy you really think is worth it and you can trade up and get him, Do It.  But don't do it just because one of those guys must be best.

 

Why not? Because, Draft History.

 

What Draft History says is that there may be 1-4 good QB in this draft class -  BUT THEY ARE VERY UNLIKELY INDEED TO BE DRAFTED IN THAT ORDER.

 

I looked at the drafts from 2016-2012.  I previously used 3 numerical criteria correlated to winning, to sort drafted QB as "yes" or "no".  Now I summed the criteria and sorted the "yes" QB drafted in Rounds 1-5 according to that numerical value.  (The point is to have some objective performance criteria over a guy's career and not be swayed by reputation/draft position.  Most will splutter and go but but but at some point...go look at the guy's whole performance, 'K?)

 

The criteria used were completion %/10 (to put in the same numeric scale), Y/A, and TD/INT ratio.

 

Here are the rankings, THE ORDER IN WHICH THE QB WAS DRAFTED, and his draft position, going back class by class:

2016: Prescott (8th QB, 4th round, Pick 126), Goff (1st QB, Rd 1 Pick 1), Wentz (2nd QB, Rd 1 Pick 2)

2015: Mariota (2nd, Rd 1 Pick 2) Winston (1st, Rd Pick 1)

2014: Garoppolo (5th QB, Rd 2 Pick 62), Derek Carr (4th QB, Rd 2 Pick 36),  [both these guys fail 1 criteria: Teddy Bridgewater (2nd QB, Rd 1 Pick 32), Blake Bortles (1st QB, Rd 1 Pick 1)]

2013: no "yes" hits.  Glennon scores highest (3rd QB, Rd 3 Pick 73)

2012: Wilson (6th QB, Rd 3 Pick 75),  Cousins (8th QB, Rd 4, Pick 102) Griffin (2nd QB, Rd 1 Pick 2) Foles (7th QB, Rd 3 Pick 88) Luck (1st QB, Rd 1 Pick 1) Tannehill (3rd QB, Rd 1 Pick 8)

 

You can argue with the details (Griffin's data is biased by his 1st 2 years, Luck's is impacted by his 2015 and rookie seasons) and if everyone gets healthy and younger QB keep developing, the details may change in 3 years.

 

The overall point won't change:

1) the odds of getting a good QB are highest in the first 2 picks of the draft

2) there are still good QB to be had after that - but the odds are very much against them falling in the order drafted.  It may not be a mistake to take the #3 or even #4 QB in the draft - but you better do it based upon a careful evaluation of his talent, not because "gotta getta QB and the 1st round is where it's at!" 

 

That's how you draft JP Losman when just maybe you'd have been better off drafting Steve Jackson and picking up Matt Schaub in the 3rd. 

 

I'm not the professional football talent evaluator.  What's important is that

1) we have first-rate football talent evaluation in place, and continually work to improve our talent evaluation and scouting

2) they be free to do their job, unhindered by any input/interference from marketing or ownership

3) they take a shot at a guy they like, and if he isn't "all that", keep taking shots in subsequent years.

 

So please don't have a cow if the Bills trade up to #8 pre-draft and then don't draft a QB (because the guy they liked went sooner), or because they pass on the Wonderboy all the Pundits rated as #1 or #3 in favor of a 3rd round pick. 

 

Because there is an element of chance, and history says that the QB are unlikely to wind up being drafted in the order of their eventual NFL performance.

 

 

If you're hearing the Bills are asking around for trade partners at the top of this draft it's for good reason, this is one of the deepest QB drafts in awhile and the Bills are in the market for one, from what I'm reading they'll be gone by the 17th pick of the draft and probably before (Allen, Rosen,Darnold, Mayfield and Jackson). This is the year to go up and get their guy, I'm going to guess they've done their due diligence on these guys and have them ranked where they'd take them. I doubt the Rams or Eagles are pissed what they gave up to get Goff and Wentz. 

[ALF]

With other teams wanting to trade up for a QB  it will be an expensive bidding war this draft. It's going to take the farm to get into the top 4.  If the scouting staff is convinced on a player go for it. 

 

Where Cousins lands and other free agents like the 3 Viking QBs might loosen things up.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Give me the guy who knows how to stand tall in the pocket.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Some drafts are deep. Some are shallow. Some are deep and shallow at certain positions.

 

Like the unbelievably deep WR draft in 2014. The year we traded up for Sammy Watkins. And later end up with another guy from the same draft, Kelvin Benjamin.

 

This year is a deep QB draft. That's not an opinion I came up with myself. It's what the GMs are saying, the pundits, everyone. Those four or five drafts you looked at ... they weren't deep at QB. This one is.

 

And of course a GM should pick the one or two or three guys he thinks he wants, that will fit the team and the scheme and the situation. Of course you shouldn't just grab anyone from the pile. But the reason this draft is different is that it has a bigger bunch of guys with a better shot at success than you have in your usual draft class.

 

I don't see how anyone could say that "the four or five drafts I looked at...they weren't deep at QB"

Some were shallow (eg 2013).  But 2012 was certainly regarded (and spoken about at the time) as being deep in QB talent, and 2014 had almost as much hype.

 

People always think a specific draft is super-deep in some position and all the cream will rise to the top, and it seldom works that way - some later players always wind up outworking or out-talenting the "cant miss" prospects who were drafted above them and were hampered by injury or insufficient "want it" and work ethic.

 

The closest thing to what folks are suggesting (a draft with 3-4 top QB likely to be drafted all in a row) would be 2004, featuring Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roeth, and JP Losman.   One of those guys had flags - for example, his completion percentage never broke 60% in a year where he saw significant playing time and he perhaps played a lower level of competition - but we traded up to draft him anyway.   Dammit, we needed a QB and it was a deep class! 

I could be wrong but I don't see this as a 2004 draft with several "can't miss" top prospects on the level of a Manning/Rivers/Roeth either.  There may be 2.

Edited February 19, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[BigBuff423]

I agree with the overall premise of this thread: pick YOUR guy, regardless of where in the Draft and be confident that the assessment is the tool, not the position in which he is Drafted. I am one who thinks Rudolph will be a very good QB, and certainly one the Bills could utilize to re-make their Offense beginning next year. I also believe Beane values the Draft more than FA, which is why I'm doubtful of the Cousins to Buffalo scenario, regardless of the money. 

 

IMHO, Beane and McD are reshaping the roster to be the identity they want, which is why I think Hughes, Taylor, Shady, Richie all go...and why it's possible Glenn goes, but now with a new OC and probably a new QB, they may keep him to help the young QB as one less changing part. 

 

I'm hoping the Bills stay put, or if they move up, it's a relatively short distance and NOT up to #2 overall or even #3 overall as I think it would take a king's ransom to do it, and this roster needs youth all over the field and they have a lot of departing FAs, which is a good thing IMO as well. 

 

Just to be clear, I really like Cousins and was vocal about it when he was Drafted, but at this current time where the roster is for the Bills and where the team is, I just don't see it. However, if I'm wrong and the Bills get him, of course I will be a fan because it's not like I want the man to fail, I just don't think it's a great idea to spend all that money when there are so many issues with the roster. Furthermore, I would hope the Bills see the strengths of the Draft, i.e. QB, and realize to use it to their advantage.

[Chuck Wagon]

Yeah, lets be conservative and draft the 8th best QB, it's worked great for the last 20 years.