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Hapless Bills Fan

Why we don't want to draft one of the top 4 QB

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This is a post for all you "trade the farm and draft Darnold.  Or Rosen.  or Mayfield.  or Allen.  Just, one of those TOP GUYS!

No.  Don't.  If there's one guy you really think is worth it and you can trade up and get him, Do It.  But don't do it just because one of those guys must be best.

 

Why not? Because, Draft History.

 

What Draft History says is that there may be 1-4 good QB in this draft class -  BUT THEY ARE VERY UNLIKELY INDEED TO BE DRAFTED IN THAT ORDER.

 

I looked at the drafts from 2016-2012.  I previously used 3 numerical criteria correlated to winning, to sort drafted QB as "yes" or "no".  Now I summed the criteria and sorted the "yes" QB drafted in Rounds 1-5 according to that numerical value.  (The point is to have some objective performance criteria over a guy's career and not be swayed by reputation/draft position.  Most will splutter and go but but but at some point...go look at the guy's whole performance, 'K?)

 

The criteria used were completion %/10 (to put in the same numeric scale), Y/A, and TD/INT ratio.

 

Here are the rankings, THE ORDER IN WHICH THE QB WAS DRAFTED, and his draft position, going back class by class:

2016: Prescott (8th QB, 4th round, Pick 126), Goff (1st QB, Rd 1 Pick 1), Wentz (2nd QB, Rd 1 Pick 2)

2015: Mariota (2nd, Rd 1 Pick 2) Winston (1st, Rd Pick 1)

2014: Garoppolo (5th QB, Rd 2 Pick 62), Derek Carr (4th QB, Rd 2 Pick 36),  [both these guys fail 1 criteria: Teddy Bridgewater (2nd QB, Rd 1 Pick 32), Blake Bortles (1st QB, Rd 1 Pick 1)]

2013: no "yes" hits.  Glennon scores highest (3rd QB, Rd 3 Pick 73)

2012: Wilson (6th QB, Rd 3 Pick 75),  Cousins (8th QB, Rd 4, Pick 102) Griffin (2nd QB, Rd 1 Pick 2) Foles (7th QB, Rd 3 Pick 88) Luck (1st QB, Rd 1 Pick 1) Tannehill (3rd QB, Rd 1 Pick 8)

 

You can argue with the details (Griffin's data is biased by his 1st 2 years, Luck's is impacted by his 2015 and rookie seasons) and if everyone gets healthy and younger QB keep developing, the details may change in 3 years.

 

The overall point won't change:

1) the odds of getting a good QB are highest in the first 2 picks of the draft

2) there are still good QB to be had after that - but the odds are very much against them falling in the order drafted.  It may not be a mistake to take the #3 or even #4 QB in the draft - but you better do it based upon a careful evaluation of his talent, not because "gotta getta QB and the 1st round is where it's at!" 

 

That's how you draft JP Losman when just maybe you'd have been better off drafting Steve Jackson and picking up Matt Schaub in the 3rd. 

 

I'm not the professional football talent evaluator.  What's important is that

1) we have first-rate football talent evaluation in place, and continually work to improve our talent evaluation and scouting

2) they be free to do their job, unhindered by any input/interference from marketing or ownership

3) they take a shot at a guy they like, and if he isn't "all that", keep taking shots in subsequent years.

 

So please don't have a cow if the Bills trade up to #8 pre-draft and then don't draft a QB (because the guy they liked went sooner), or because they pass on the Wonderboy all the Pundits rated as #1 or #3 in favor of a 3rd round pick. 

 

Because there is an element of chance, and history says that the QB are unlikely to wind up being drafted in the order of their eventual NFL performance.

 

Edited by Hapless Bills Fan
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Good analysis.  :thumbsup:   I will be happy if the Bills do both 1)  &  2) under the evaluation paragraph.   If they decide to pass on a QB in the first round and take somebody in the 2nd or 3rd, as long as they do it for the right reasons, I'm good with that.

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37 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

...

The overall point won't change:

1) the odds of getting a good QB are highest in the first 2 picks of the draft

...

 

I just read another op-ed (Bills road map to trading up) that said the top 4 picks are good enough.

 

Quote

Of the remaining 45 1st round quarterbacks, 20 have been taken in the first four picks. Those 20 QBs have produced 14 "hits" and six "misses".

 

I'd be OK if the Bills traded into the top four for Mayfield/Rosen/Darnold.

 

Agree with the tone of your post: don't freak out if the football people do their thing, and that thing may not be a QB.

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I think all NFL talent evaluators know not to pick a QB high in the draft just because the club needs a QB.


But sometimes they talk themselves into it anyway.  They feel stress - the stress from within themselves, the stress from management, the stress from fans and media.  GMs without franchise QBs know they've got to find one and that can make them a little more optimistic about a QB's upside and less cynical about his flaws than they ought to be.

 

Many fans are thinking we've got to get a top QB in the draft.  If Beane thinks this way, the possibility of a bad pick doubles, triples. 

 

We've got to hope Beane remains dispassionate and level-headed in his first draft.

Edited by hondo in seattle
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5 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

I think all NFL talent evaluators know not to pick a QB high in the draft just because the club needs a QB.


But sometimes they talk themselves into it anyway.  They feel stress - the stress from within themselves, the stress from management, the stress from fans and media.  GMs without franchise QBs know they've got to find one and that can make them a little more optimistic about a QB's upside and less cynical about his flaws than they ought to be.

 

We've got to hope Beane remains dispassionate and level-headed in his first draft.

 

:thumbsup:  Well said. 

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4 minutes ago, boater said:

 

I just read another op-ed (Bills road map to trading up) that said the top 4 picks are good enough.

 

 

I'd be OK if the Bills traded into the top four for Mayfield/Rosen/Darnold.

 

Agree with the tone of your post: don't freak out if the football people do their thing, and that thing may not be a QB.

Ahh, I'm not the GM and I'll freak out if I want to.  Seems to me the trading away of assets for picks was designed to set up a move up for qb.  Though I grant the OP is level-headed and it's possible things play out in a manner that precludes the ability to get the guy you want.  What I don't really like is some post I read where a journalist fella opined that McD would be fine using draft capital to improve the D and going with a mediocre vet qb.  No thanks to that plan.  (I like the three qbs you indicate, btw.)

 

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7 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

.....

We've got to hope Beane remains dispassionate and level-headed in his first draft.

 

I think McBeane et al. will be calm. If draft things don't roll right, the fall back plan will be another year of Tyrod, which while not great, it's not a GM career killer.

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Just now, boater said:

 

I think McBeane et al. will be calm. If draft things don't roll right, the fall back plan will be another year of Tyrod, which while not great, it's not a GM career killer.

Another year of Tyrod . . . well, I'll have to increase the alcohol budget.  OBD, save the liver, please.

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13 minutes ago, boater said:

 

I just read another op-ed (Bills road map to trading up) that said the top 4 picks are good enough.

 

 

I'd be OK if the Bills traded into the top four for Mayfield/Rosen/Darnold.

 

Agree with the tone of your post: don't freak out if the football people do their thing, and that thing may not be a QB.

 

If you look at the list of successful top 4 QBs, only Rivers and Ryan were drafted after #2.  The other 12 success were #1s and #2s.  Go high or stay home.

7 minutes ago, boater said:

 

I think McBeane et al. will be calm. If draft things don't roll right, the fall back plan will be another year of Tyrod, which while not great, it's not a GM career killer.

 

In this scenario, I would be okay with them drafting a QB in the 2nd or 3rd on the off chance that lightning might strike.

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18 minutes ago, boater said:

 

I just read another op-ed (Bills road map to trading up) that said the top 4 picks are good enough.

 

"op-ed" = opinion-editorial

I guess it depends upon what they mean by "good enough".  What did it say they meant?

 

In the draft analysis I did from 1998-2016, there were 25 QB drafted in the first 4 picks.

The success rate by the 3 criteria I used was 33% from picks 3-4 (2 of 6) and 50-68% in picks 1-2 (the difference being Cam Newton, Eli Manning, and Donovan McNabb)

 

In addition, per my OP, the point is the best QB in the draft rarely fall in the order drafted.

 

18 minutes ago, boater said:

I'd be OK if the Bills traded into the top four for Mayfield/Rosen/Darnold.

Agree with the tone of your post: don't freak out if the football people do their thing, and that thing may not be a QB.

 

I think one or perhaps two of those 3 are going to be good QB.

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LOL, I'll play.

NEVER draft a QB with the 22nd pick!!!!!!!!!

 

2014 1   22 Johnny Manziel QB Texas A&M
2012 1   22 Brandon Weeden QB Oklahoma State
2007 1   22 Brady Quinn QB Notre Dame
2004 22 J.P. Losman QB Tulane
2003 22 Rex Grossman QB Florida
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It's a slow time right now and while talking about the draft is about all we have to do, all the different mocks and experts and op-eds don't change the one basic reality going on.  If Beane sees a guy he feels will be the answer at QB, he'll do what he needs to do to get in position to take him.  If not he'll likely get a decent FA and build with all the picks.

 

He has said on a number of occasions they need a QB.  The question is whether he feels one of the guys is a can't miss type and only he knows that. Everything else is just pure conjecture.

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The stat for hitting on a QB in the top 4 picks is 75%. After that, it's below 50%. 

 

So I'm gonna have to disagree.

 

EDIT: Just saw the pick 3/4 part. Trade to 2 or stay put. I agree with you. 

Edited by Elite Poster

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1 hour ago, SoTier said:

Good analysis.  :thumbsup:   I will be happy if the Bills do both 1)  &  2) under the evaluation paragraph.   If they decide to pass on a QB in the first round and take somebody in the 2nd or 3rd, as long as they do it for the right reasons, I'm good with that.

 

Join the Mike White in round 2 or 3 bandwagon. 

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15 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

The stat for hitting on a QB in the top 4 picks is 75%. After that, it's below 50%.

 

By what metric is it as high as 75%? 

That's a very definitive statement so surely you have something to back it up. 

Years you looked at, criteria you used, QB who hit and missed by your criteria

Linky to a post where you put all that would work.

 

Years were 1998 to 2016.  Pick 1 and 2 is 50-68 % as I make it.  Criteria were completion %, YPA, and TD/INT ratio. 

Hits: Goff, Wentz, Winston, Mariota, Luck, Griffin, Bradford, Stafford,Ryan,Alex Smith,Rivers, Palmer, P. Manning

Debatable (miss one criteria): Newton (completion %), Eli Manning (TD/INT), McNabb (completion %)

Misses: Bortles, Russell, Young, Carr, Harrington, Vick, Couch, Akili Smith, Leaf

Total QB number: 25.

Hits + Debatable: 16

If anyone moves up from the "Miss" list by whatever your criteria may be, don't forget to also demote anyone you don't consider a "Hit" by same criteria.

Edited by Hapless Bills Fan

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As a Chiefs fan, the most exciting draft event I have ever seen was last years trade up to 10 so we could draft Mahomes.  ....Even before we knew it was Mahomes, it was pretty well understood that as soon as that trade was made they'd gone up there for Watson or Mahomes.  It was incredible knowing that they had A) Identified "the man" and B) they actually went and did what it took to go get him.  I hope that you all have a similar draft day experience this year...especially since it has been at least somewhat alluded to that by punting on QB last year, the Bills had turned their eyes to this QB draft class and had aquired ammo for it.

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Based on this line of thinking....top 4 is 75% likely, the Bills missed the boat the year they drafted Darius.......of  course, but, a QB there was the answer.

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Have to trade up.     Failed too hard last year with available QBs at pick 10.  

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I started a thread on more or less this very point a couple days ago; not much response to it.

 

Draft order does not dictate Draft Quality.


For sure.

 

 

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18 minutes ago, bigK14094 said:

Based on this line of thinking....top 4 is 75% likely, the Bills missed the boat the year they drafted Darius.......of  course, but, a QB there was the answer.

 

Who was the answer??

 

Gabbert was the best QB taken, Dalton later on.

 

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1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

LOL, I'll play.

NEVER draft a QB with the 22nd pick!!!!!!!!!

 

2014 1   22 Johnny Manziel QB Texas A&M
2012 1   22 Brandon Weeden QB Oklahoma State
2007 1   22 Brady Quinn QB Notre Dame
2004 22 J.P. Losman QB Tulane
2003 22 Rex Grossman QB Florida

 

But Pick #24 is OK

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30 minutes ago, bigK14094 said:

Based on this line of thinking....top 4 is 75% likely, the Bills missed the boat the year they drafted Darius.......of  course, but, a QB there was the answer.

 

I still want to know what criterion is used for that.  I Don't Think So.

 

That's misunderstanding the line of thinking...if there's a QB you rate that high, sure, go for it. 

Drafting someone who you don't have that high, doesn't give you better odds.

 

Which of these guys would you like to have had at #3?  Newton was gone

 

Rk Year Rnd Pick   Pos DrAge Tm From To AP1 PB St CarAV G GS QBrec Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD College/Univ  
1 2011 1 1 Cam Newton QB 22 CAR 2011 2017 1 3 7 95 109 108 62-45-1 2001 3420 25074 158 94 828 4320 54 Auburn College Stats
2 2011 1 8 Jake Locker QB 23 TEN 2011 2014 0 0 1 15 30 23 9-14-0 408 709 4967 27 22 95 644 5 Washington College Stats
3 2011 1 10 Blaine Gabbert QB 21 JAX 2011 2017 0 0 3 14 48 45 11-34-0 781 1397 8437 44 43 171 631 3 Missouri College Stats
4 2011 1 12 Christian Ponder QB 23 MIN 2011 2014 0 0 3 22 38 36 14-21-1 632 1057 6658 38 36 126 639 7 Florida St. College Stats
5 2011 2 35 Andy Dalton QB 23 CIN 2011 2017 0 3 7 71 109 109 63-44-2 2217 3556 25534 167 93 346 1049 18 TCU College Stats
6 2011 2 36 Colin Kaepernick QB 23 SFO 2011 2016 0 0 4 45 69 58 28-30-0 1011 1692 12271 72 30 375 2300 13 Nevada College Stats
7 2011 3 74 Ryan Mallett QB 23 NWE 2012 2017 0 0 0 4 21 8 3-5-0 190 345 1835 9 10 28 -5 1 Arkansas College Stats

 

16 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

Who was the answer??

Gabbert was the best QB taken, Dalton later on.

 

"No" to the deer-in-the-headlights statue (Gabbert); Locker >> Gabbert (neither good)

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Having an 'extra' First Round pick is a luxury....and a welcome one after giving up one for Sammy.  The Bills need to take a swing at a QB there and don't look back.  Nothing ventured nothing gained.

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