Is there a chance that Beane obliterates the roster this offseason to add cap space?

[Process]

Taylor's gone obviously. Glenn should be moved too.

 

Also dump Clay. He's been overrated and over paid since we signed him. He's nothing special at this point and drops a ton of balls, can easily be replaced. 

[26CornerBlitz]

2 minutes ago, Process said:

Taylor's gone obviously. Glenn should be moved too.

 

Also dump Clay. He's been overrated and over paid since we signed him. He's nothing special at this point and drops a ton of balls, can easily be replaced. 

 

Releasing Clay in 2018 makes no sense as the best TE on the team and it provides exactly zero dollars of cap relief.  

Edited February 1, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 minute ago, Process said:

Taylor's gone obviously. Glenn should be moved too.

 

Also dump Clay. He's been overrated and over paid since we signed him. He's nothing special at this point and drops a ton of balls, can easily be replaced. 

I think that Clay has been the leading receiver over the last 3 seasons.   w/o a Pro Bowl replacement, I'd keep him until Buffalo can find better 

[Process]

4 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Releasing Clay in 2018 makes no sense as the best TE on the team and it provides exactly zero dollars of cap relief.  

Well that obviously changes things.. I was going off of the OP saying it would provide 4.5 mill of cap space 

[Mat68]

I think Buffalo will keep Shady.  He was very good last year.  However, I could see the majority of those players being cut.  I think if you move Alexander to situational pass rusher he can lead the special teams and get some sack off the edge and can earn his salary.  Interested to see Beanes first full off season.  I dont expect Buffalo getting into bidding wars for any Fa.  That includes Qb.  The cost for Cousins would be the opposite of building through the draft.  By building through the draft I beileve that means that is where to get difference makers and franchise corner stones.  I think they will look to fill the holes of the roster with mid tier guys.  The right fit and you can find some diamonds.  Like Hyde and Poyer last offseason.  The Bills were 8-4 when Gaines played so I think he is a priority to resign.  Beane likes Benjamin so after his knee heals up I expect buffalo to extend him this year to lower his cap hit.  The roster will be churned just as much as it was last year.  This year they have more picks and more cap space to work with.  

Edited February 1, 2018 by Mat68

[dollars 2 donuts]

3 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Because there are so many holes on the roster they need every every promising young player they can get via the draft. Having eight picks in the first five rounds (four in the first two) is huge. To throw that away would be unfortunate.

 

 

or, Wayne, they could be strategic with Free Agents, like they were with Poyer and Hyde.

[Wayne Arnold]

30 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Releasing Clay in 2018 makes no sense as the best TE on the team and it provides exactly zero dollars of cap relief.  

 

After June 1st, releasing Clay would add $4.5 to the cap as stated in the OP.

[YattaOkasan]

2 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

After June 1st, releasing Clay would add $4.5 to the cap as stated in the OP.

Did you put the post June 1st numbers for everyone?  That doesnt really work.

 

The league allows each team to designate up to two players per year as a June 1 cut for cap purposes prior to June 1.

https://overthecap.com/explaining-the-june-1st-designation/

 

Also its just putting the dead money off.  Beane said we were better with the cap but we werent there yet (don't have the link from senior bowl IIRC).  That makes me think we won't see huge relief by using the June 1st designation like for Taylor.

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

After June 1st, releasing Clay would add $4.5 to the cap as stated in the OP.

 

It's an awful idea that leaves a void at TE (that hurts both the run and passing game) as is your premise to gut the team.  Beyond that increases the dead money for '19. 

[Mat68]

19 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

or, Wayne, they could be strategic with Free Agents, like they were with Poyer and Hyde.

This.  I almost guarantee Beane would much rather bring in 5 or 6 mid tier at the same cost of signing Cousins.  The largest contract imo wont be over 40 mil total and i expect that to be a DT or DE.  They have the space to add 2 Hyde level Fa and 5 Poyer level.  Then use the Draft to add what you cant find in Fa.  A franchise Qb and sideline to sideline baker.  In round 3 add a running back or pass catcher.  

[26CornerBlitz]

3 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Did you put the post June 1st numbers for everyone?  That doesnt really work.

 

The league allows each team to designate up to two players per year as a June 1 cut for cap purposes prior to June 1.

https://overthecap.com/explaining-the-june-1st-designation/

 

Also its just putting the dead money off.  Beane said we were better with the cap but we werent there yet (don't have the link from senior bowl IIRC).  That makes me think we won't see huge relief by using the June 1st designation like for Taylor.

 

They also have to deal with the cap ramifications of Eric Wood's retirement.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

On 1/31/2018 at 11:39 AM, Wayne Arnold said:

The Buffalo Bills currently have $31,336,937 million in 2018 cap space. Good for 16th in the NFL. Not terrible, but not great.

 

Which of these moves could you see Beane end up doing? What are the chances that he does them all?

 

1. Releasing QB Tyrod Taylor prior to the March signing bonus deadline would add $15.44 million to the 2018 cap (no-brainer)
2. Releasing OG Richie Incognito would add $6.425 million to the 2018 cap.
3. Releasing DE Jerry Hughes would add $4.6 million to the 2018 cap.
4. Releasing RB Lesean McCoy would add $3.7 million to the 2018 cap.
5. Releasing LB Lorenzo Alexander would add $2.85 million to the 2018 cap.
6. Releasing OT Jordan Mills would add $1.95 million to the 2018 cap.
7. Releasing DE Ryan Davis would add $1.225 million to the 2018 cap.
8. Releasing OG Vlad Ducasse would add $1.02 million to the 2018 cap.

 

Obviously Wood is a complicated situation, but I can't help but think there's a way to eliminate his contract from the cap. If the Bills were somehow able to pull that off, that would add an additional $8.625 million to the 2018 salary cap.

 

If Beane somehow dumped all of these players (including managing to remove Wood's salary from the cap), that would add $45.835 million to the salary cap, more than doubling it for a grand total of $77.17 million - which would be 5th in the NFL (behind only 49ers, Browns, Colts and barely the Jets).

 

In addition, they could also make the following moves after June 1st:

 

1. Trading OT Cordy Glenn after June 1st would add $11.25 million to the 2018 cap
2. Releasing TE Charles Clay would add $4.5 million to the 2018 cap
3. Releasing FB Patrick Dimarco would add $1.55 million to the 2018 cap
4. Releasing WR Andre Holmes would add $1.2 million to the 2018 cap

 

That would add another $18.5 million to fill roster holes.

 

The questions you have to ask are:

 

• Is Tyrod Taylor worth $15.44 million? I say no.
• Is Richie Incognito worth $6.425 million? That's a tougher one - I would say no because I think they can get better value than that at the guard position, but I could go either way.
• Is Jerry Hughes worth $4.6 million? I say yes.
• Is Shady worth $3.7 million? I say yes, but I don't feel too strongly about it. IMO we just saw Shady's last fully healthy season.
• Is Lorax worth $2.85 million? I'm on the fence with this one as I think his presence at defensive end could replace Shaq Lawson, in which case we could get a mid-round pick for Shaq.
• Is Jordan Mills worth $1.95 million? I might be in the minority on this one but I say yes. He exceeded expectations in 2018.
• Is Ryan Davis worth $1.225 million? I say definitely yes - adds very good DLine depth for relatively cheap.
• Is Vlad Ducasse worth $1.02 million? Probably depends on the new run scheme.

 

Thoughts?

 

Hughes is our best pass rusher - we really cant afford to cut him even if his production doesn't necessarily meet his pay.  Incognito and Lorax are on expiring deals, they can factor into 2019 comp picks if they walk (also incognito was a pro bowler - are we trying to get worse?).  Lorax I could see - but his entire deal is basically non guaranteed.  Why not see if someone can take his job?  

 

If we cut McCoy we literally have no running backs on the roster - and you save 3.7 million on the cap.  Will his replacement cost more than 3.7 million?  Probably.  Will he be as good?  Probably not.  

Ducasse and Miller cost a total of like 2 million.  If we draft a potential replacement I'm all for cutting one - but only if a replacement is brought in.

Moving Glenn will be tough - his value is super low and his salaries are high.  I'm sure they still want to get out of some of the bad deals, and make some savings.  But we are already carrying a large dead money amount for 2018.

[Wayne Arnold]

10 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Did you put the post June 1st numbers for everyone?  That doesnt really work.

 

The league allows each team to designate up to two players per year as a June 1 cut for cap purposes prior to June 1.

https://overthecap.com/explaining-the-june-1st-designation/

 

Also its just putting the dead money off.  Beane said we were better with the cap but we werent there yet (don't have the link from senior bowl IIRC).  That makes me think we won't see huge relief by using the June 1st designation like for Taylor.

 

CornerBlitz said that Clay's release would provide "zero dollars of cap relief," which is false and I simply pointed that out. I don't want to release Clay.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, Process said:

Well that obviously changes things.. I was going off of the OP saying it would provide 4.5 mill of cap space 

I started a 2018 Cap thread.  In it there is a link to Spotrac/NFL Salary cap where you can "manage" the Bills roster / Cap.   

Have a go at it and some of your questions might be answered.  

 

Buffalo Bills 2018 Salary Cap

Edited February 1, 2018 by ShadyBillsFan

[QuoteTheRaven83]

I wouldn't be shocked if we released/traded Shady and Hughes.

Edited February 1, 2018 by QuoteTheRaven83

[Pete]

Keep Shady, Ingognito, Clay, Hughes.  I am baffled that any Bills fan would want any of them released.  They are part of our foundation.  We are $29 million under the cap.  After we trade/cut Glenn and Tyrod- that should add another $26 million (if I recall right).  Cutting Ryan Davis saves us over $1 million, although we are thin at DT and that might not be wise.  Andre Holmes led team in special teams plays, so my guess is he is back.  With potentially $45 million under cap, a plethora of draft picks, and building upon playoff showing- the 2018 Bills should be much improved and have potential to go deep into playoffs

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

11 minutes ago, Pete said:

Keep Shady, Ingognito, Clay, Hughes.  I am baffled that any Bills fan would want any of them released.  They are part of our foundation.  We are $29 million under the cap.  After we trade/cut Glenn and Tyrod- that should add another $26 million (if I recall right).  Cutting Ryan Davis saves us over $1 million, although we are thin at DT and that might not be wise.  Andre Holmes led team in special teams plays, so my guess is he is back.  With potentially $45 million under cap, a plethora of draft picks, and building upon playoff showing- the 2018 Bills should be much improved and have potential to go deep into playoffs

just over $50.1 Mil if you cut Taylor and renegotiate the top 3 or 4 salaries 

 

you could then spend $30 mil on a QB and still have $25 Mil to play with (if you chose to) 

[BigBuff423]

3 hours ago, Lurker said:

 

Tough to do, now that playoff expectations have been raised.    The pressure from the 'pitchfork and torches' portion of the fan base will be a lot different this year.

 

With a more difficult schedule and so much uncertainty at QB and both O and D lines, rebuilding the roster pretty much insures "year one" of the next playoff drought, IMO...  

 

You could also look at it this way: they made the playoffs, shot the monkey that was on their back, and now have some time "equity" and credit with the fans to use a year to finalize all the intended changes. 

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

5 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

I admit I'm a little confused about Taylor's financial situation because of the bonus that is due in March. I had assumed that if they traded/released him before that bonus that that money would be added to the cap.

 

 

I don't think Beane finds the dead cap all that relevant with regard to his personnel decisions. It's all about the value of the player and how much money would be added to the cap with his release and whether it's worth it or not. He's not going to stay up at night worrying about dead cap that Whaley caused by doling out dumb contracts.

 

I think the dead cap is stuck from the renegotiations from when Tyrod took less money in 2017 and fewer years to stay on. That signing bonus stays annualized IIRC and advances to dead cap if cut.

 

2 hours ago, Process said:

Well that obviously changes things.. I was going off of the OP saying it would provide 4.5 mill of cap space 

 

I think the numbers are a bit off. Clay can be cut for $4.5 after June first, but it won't provide cap relief for FA season even if we designate him. It would only provide cap relief for emergency free agents, and push the rest of the dead money to 2019. It makes more sense to keep him for his year at least.

[RochesterRob]

43 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

 

You could also look at it this way: they made the playoffs, shot the monkey that was on their back, and now have some time "equity" and credit with the fans to use a year to finalize all the intended changes. 

  This should be the outlook for fans but you know it will not be especially here.   The riverboat gambler mentality abounds here.

[sjjr]

Have to expect the Bills to draft 5-6 players who will contribute a lot as rookies and build the backbone of the Bills franchise going forward.  Particularly a new MLB that fits and will be the leader of defense, a power RB, interior defensive and offensive linemen and potentially a pass rushing DE.  If they get what they want in the draft then guys like Cordy Glenn or Jerry Hughes could be traded or let go because they haven't produced up to their cap hit probably and aren't getting any younger.  Don't know if they need to cut Incognito because he will be in a contract year, made the pro bowl and has no obvious replacement now.

 

It would be shocking if the Bills were just blown up.

[YattaOkasan]

7 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

CornerBlitz said that Clay's release would provide "zero dollars of cap relief," which is false and I simply pointed that out. I don't want to release Clay.

Understood and you’re right. But the reason i was saying is it doesn’t work is that the money isn’t available until after June 1st IIRC and you can only do it twice. So to post the savings for the players in the OP all with a post June 1st designation ended up being a bit misleading

[Another Fan]

The guys that started with Rex like for example Taylor, Incognito, McCoy, and Clay I could see possibly being waived.  Just because well "the process" wasn't ingrained in them to start with.

 

Taylor is obvious.  Incognito and McCoy I still think have value for now.  Could go either way on Clay

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

By "obliterate" do you mean Beane will cut loose player's he doesn't see as a fit for us then yes, as he should, we can add talent just about everywhere. This roster just shows how bad Whaley really was.

[Bing Bong]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillsGospel said:

By "obliterate" do you mean Beane will cut loose player's he doesn't see as a fit for us then yes, as he should, we can add talent just about everywhere. This roster just shows how bad Whaley really was.

Whaley didn't gut the roster.. really don't understand why we blame a GM who's predecessor traded away every former top draft picks for pretty much nothing.

[wppete]

Releasing McCoy would never happen. 

[Dadonkadonk]

The OP analysis on TT is flawed.  You have to take his cap hit if released and the amount it would take to replace him. Sign Cousins and release TT and there would be little cap room left

[Paulus]

May as well cut everyone and just field all rookies for to save cap space. Gotta build for the future.

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

2 hours ago, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

Whaley didn't gut the roster.. really don't understand why we blame a GM who's predecessor traded away every former top draft picks for pretty much nothing.

 

With or without those players traded, Whaley was a terrible GM and to say Beane got nothing for the players is laughable. 

[GunnerBill]

16 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

 

I think the dead cap is stuck from the renegotiations from when Tyrod took less money in 2017 and fewer years to stay on. That signing bonus stays annualized IIRC and advances to dead cap if cut.

 

Yep. It is $8.6m dead cap if they cut him prior to the 3rd day of the new league year that is definite. The dead money is made up of:

 

$2m guaranteed signing bonus for 2018;

$1m of the $6m roster bonus for 2018 which was guaranteed and in fact paid in 2017 (accounted for in 2018 for cap reasons);

$5.5m in guaranteed signing bonus for 2019, 2020 and 2021 from the original 2016 extension.

 

While the 2019-2021 salary from that original contract has already voided the signing bonus ONLY voids if he is on the roster on the final day of the 2018 league year. If he is cut before then the Bills are on the hook for that money. 

 

Now I do not have sufficient knowledge of the exact terms of the contract to know for definite what happens if Tyrod is traded. Because this was a very complicated and pretty bespoke situation where the Bills essentially re-assigned money already paid in the 2016 re-signing it is possible that the future years guaranteed money now belongs to the contract and its term is really "if this contract is on a roster at the end of 2018". In which case if Tyrod were to be traded that money goes with him. In theory that is possible. But it is highly unlikely. The smart money is on the Bills being on the hook for that money if Tyrod isn't a Bill in 2018 whether he is cut or traded before or after Jun 1st. 

 

The only difference with a post June 1st designation would be the Bills spread the dead money over 2 years. 

 

Edited February 2, 2018 by GunnerBill

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

5 hours ago, Dadonkadonk said:

The OP analysis on TT is flawed.  You have to take his cap hit if released and the amount it would take to replace him. Sign Cousins and release TT and there would be little cap room left

not entirely true.  please look at the 2018 Bills Cap thread.   Cut TT and restructure 3 guys and there is ~$50 mil in cap space.  

[Bing Bong]

On 2/2/2018 at 1:07 AM, BuffaloBillsGospel said:

 

With or without those players traded, Whaley was a terrible GM and to say Beane got nothing for the players is laughable. 

don't get me wrong. Love Gaines, could care less about the rest. I'm thinking more about the Dareus deal, Ragland deal,getting Jordan Matthews (yuck). Give me a better reason Whaley sucks other than we don't have any of his players (most of which are showing talent elsewhere)

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

don't get me wrong. Love Gaines, could care less about the rest. I'm thinking more about the Dareus deal, Ragland deal,getting Jordan Matthews (yuck). Give me a better reason Whaley sucks other than we don't have any of his players (most of which are showing talent elsewhere)

 

No one hits 100% in the draft.  

There have been good aqusitions with DW.  

and some of the departures have had success. 

 

Lets just see what happens in the draft.  

So yeah what you said. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

don't get me wrong. Love Gaines, could care less about the rest. I'm thinking more about the Dareus deal, Ragland deal,getting Jordan Matthews (yuck). Give me a better reason Whaley sucks other than we don't have any of his players (most of which are showing talent elsewhere)

 

You mean other than horrible drafts, gross cap mismanagement and causing marrone to leave?

[buffalobloodfloridahome]

Incognito and Shady need to stay IMO. Great LG and RB don't just fall out of trees. I agree don't blow up the roster but we do need more cap space to make a great free agent play. We also have the draft capital to make some moves. I don't see Tyrod sticking around even though the Daboll hire made me second guess that. The truth is we don't have a clue what the Bills Brass are thinking and what their game plan is so far I have questioned some of their moves only to see a more chemistry ladened team perform better than expectations on the field. We have a huge opportunity this offseason to set the tone for the future in Buffalo I'm just glad that I'm not having to pull the strings.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

23 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

 

You mean other than horrible drafts, gross cap mismanagement and causing marrone to leave?

Dougie was pissed because of both EJ AND Sammy. 

 

He thought both were made in the wrong slot.  

iirc. 

Edited February 3, 2018 by ShadyBillsFan

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

On 2/3/2018 at 7:19 AM, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

don't get me wrong. Love Gaines, could care less about the rest. I'm thinking more about the Dareus deal, Ragland deal,getting Jordan Matthews (yuck). Give me a better reason Whaley sucks other than we don't have any of his players (most of which are showing talent elsewhere)

 

He got what the market was offering, I don't think they just blindly traded any player without asking every GM in the league so they could get the best compensation for them. I mean realistically we all wanted at least a 1st round pick for Dareus, he went for a 5th because he had a monster contract and only had I think a handful of tackles along with 2 sacks at the time, who is giving a 1st round pick for that? You say "yuck" to Jordan Matthews but he compares very closely to the guy many fans on here still talk about (Sammy Watkins), the stats are very close, he's a good player but he unfortunately got injured and never got to showcase that here. Ragland is strictly a 3-4 ILB so he did us absolutely no good here, I actually kind of thought we got the better of that deal considering that there are only a number of 3-4 teams out there that strictly play that scheme, so I was quite happy with that. I can give you so many reasons why Whaley was terrible but you will just discard all of my opinions so is it really worth the effort? If you can't see that Whaley was a bad GM then there is no convincing you, your mind is already made up and that's fine, we all have different opinions and mine is different from yours.

[Dkollidas]

I think Taylor and Cordy are the two that will be gone. Just my 2 cents based on how the season went. Glenn’s situation is similar to sammy’s In my opinion, with the talent, but can he stay healthy, and if there’s a team that will take him, take the hit this year and open that money up for 2019.

[Wayne Arnold]

On 2/1/2018 at 11:22 PM, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

Whaley didn't gut the roster.. really don't understand why we blame a GM who's predecessor traded away every former top draft picks for pretty much nothing.

 

Whaley left a mess of a cap situation on McBeane's hands. You act like he traded away players for ***** and giggles.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 1/31/2018 at 10:39 AM, Wayne Arnold said:

The Buffalo Bills currently have $31,336,937 million in 2018 cap space. Good for 16th in the NFL. Not terrible, but not great.

 

Which of these moves could you see Beane end up doing? What are the chances that he does them all?

 

1. Releasing QB Tyrod Taylor prior to the March signing bonus deadline would add $15.44 million to the 2018 cap (no-brainer)
2. Releasing OG Richie Incognito would add $6.425 million to the 2018 cap.
3. Releasing DE Jerry Hughes would add $4.6 million to the 2018 cap.
4. Releasing RB Lesean McCoy would add $3.7 million to the 2018 cap.
5. Releasing LB Lorenzo Alexander would add $2.85 million to the 2018 cap.
6. Releasing OT Jordan Mills would add $1.95 million to the 2018 cap.
7. Releasing DE Ryan Davis would add $1.225 million to the 2018 cap.
8. Releasing OG Vlad Ducasse would add $1.02 million to the 2018 ca
9. Releasing FB Patrick Dimarco would add $1.55 million to the 2018 cap
10. Releasing WR Andre Holmes would add $1.2 million to the 2018 cap

 

 

Thoughts?

 

A bunch of your figures are off.  You need to account for accelerating the prorated bonus into next season.  E.g. Taylor doesn't add $15.44, he adds $9.44 (if cut and not signed elsewhere) or $10.44 (if traded or cut and signed)

 

and so forth

On 2/2/2018 at 12:09 AM, Dadonkadonk said:

The OP analysis on TT is flawed.  You have to take his cap hit if released and the amount it would take to replace him. Sign Cousins and release TT and there would be little cap room left

 

That depends upon how Cousins contract is structured.  It's not uncommon to structure a guy's contract with a huge 1st year bonus amortized over 3-5 years and minimal 1st year salary.