Bill's Cap Casualties Discussion

[billsfan_34]

11 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I don’t see us getting Cousins but if we do....yes I will change my tune.

 

If I had to guess, Alex Smith with a rookie waiting behind him.  We will need a strong rushing game.

Anything can happen- Dont rule out Bridgewater either. Guess we will all find out soon enough. 

[Kirby Jackson]

34 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

There are, but we also ran a completely different offense last year. 

 

I don't think there's any arguing that Anthony Lynn designed a better offense to suit Tyrod and Shady's strengths than did Dennison.

We are in agreement. I guess my point is that there are multiple reasons (OC, QB, RB, FB, OL, etc...). You can’t go from historically good to okay in a year. The fall was big.

[LABILLBACKER]

55 minutes ago, papazoid said:

CUTS in order of cap hit

 

tyrod taylor

kelvin Benjamin (biggest surprise) bills will attempt to sign long term, but fail

Lorenzo alexander

Patrick demarco

andre holmes

Vladimir ducasse

Adolphus washington

 

TRADES 

cordy 

hughes

 

STAY ONE MORE YEAR

shady

clay

richie

I think you're pretty right on. I just hope them make the effort to sign Kelvin.

[BigBuff423]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Shady costs the Bills $6M next year if we keep him.  He socks us a $5.25M dead cap hit if we cut or trade him for only $3.7M savings.

He's hungry.  He wants it.  He's the kind of guy who can help a new QB lift the team.

 

I don't see the value in trading McCoy for a 5th round pick to save $3.7M.  I think other guys go first - Tyrod, Cog etc.

 

If you say so? 

 

He's strong, he's balanced, he's a canny vet, he brings a big streak of the nasty a top OLman needs, IMO he did better in Kromer's scheme than Castillo.

 

Look at the Falcons OL this weekend.  That's more the kind of speed and agility Castillo's scheme asks for

 

Again, I disagree - in a year where the roster gets another overhaul, having a 3rd 5th round pick means you have more capital to move in other rounds, ala 3rd and 5th for a low 2nd, etc. but even if the team gains a 5th and just uses it as is, this roster needs depth EVERYWHERE. And a 5th round pick could be a valued asset like Karlos Williams or Kyle Williams or a WR / ST guy...point being, a 5th round pick has value and can add to the youth movement while using that $3.7 million toward ANOTHER player such as a Paul Richardson type of Offensive line depth...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

But McCoy isn't showing any signs of slowing down.

His contract wasn't set up by this regime.

 

I think a reasonable way to look at it is:

$8.95M if you keep him

$5.25 dead cap if he's traded or cut

---------------------------------------------------------

$3.7M cost over the dead cap to keep him and have his services

 

So while you might not sign him to a contract giving him $8.9M of cap room,  the difference between that and his dead cap is quite reasonable for a RB of his contribution and skill.

 

[elijah]

Shady is safe regardless, closest I see to getting rid of him is drafting a third or fourth round running back to grow under him for a year. 

 

Straight up cap casualties I see Jerry Hughes. 

 

Restructured contracts I think Richie, Wood and Clay are all potentially restructured. 

[beerme1]

5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Taylor is another player who saves slightly more than he racks up in dead cap ($8.6 dead, $9.4 savings).  People here might swallow their tongues, but I think whether he stays or goes is gonna be driven by what they do at the QB position (and maybe the OC position).  If they trade for Smith or go all in to sign Cousins, he's gone, natch.  If they decide to go for a rookie, I think they actually might keep him, at least to the point where they bring in maybe another 2nd tier FA and let everyone fight it out in camp for 2nd place.

 

No way they pay TT a $6 million bonus and then have him fight it out with a 2nd tier fa imo.

 

 

2 hours ago, papazoid said:

CUTS in order of cap hit

 

kelvin Benjamin (biggest surprise) bills will attempt to sign long term, but fail

 

Personally I would be stunned if we traded for a McBeane guy only to cut him.

 

 

1 hour ago, billsfan_34 said:

Anything can happen- Dont rule out Bridgewater either. Guess we will all find out soon enough. 

 

I can't see Minn letting Bridgewater go. They love him. If they do I hope we pounce.

[boyst]

5 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Tyrod

Glenn

 

maybe:

Incognito

Hughes

Wood

they're going to trade taylor even if it is for a 5th.  i don't know why it keeps coming up but it does.  and those little cues from john murphy ssome times pan out.  

glenn, too.  wish we'd have sent him to seattle for something like seattle tried to do.

 

incognito would probably rework his contract

hughes is gone and that is just how the league is sometimes, he deserves a system more to his talent

 

and !@#$ wood, overrated piece of trash.

[billsfan_34]

24 minutes ago, beerme1 said:

 

No way they pay TT a $6 million bonus and then have him fight it out with a 2nd tier fa imo.

 

 

 

Personally I would be stunned if we traded for a McBeane guy only to cut him.

 

 

 

I can't see Minn letting Bridgewater go. They love him. If they do I hope we pounce.

They have to choose - Keenum or Bridgewater. At this point I cant see either excepting a number 2 role but who knows anymore.

[The Frankish Reich]

7 hours ago, Ittakestime said:

Ritchie will redo his contract.

 

Clay doesn't save anything.

 

Tyrod and Hughes are gone.

Richie just got considerably cheaper thanks to the comments attributed (fairly or not) to him ...

[HalftimeAdjustment]

Tyrod: Gone, no takers for trade or at best a 7th or 2019 6th. Because teams know we are not likely to pay him, they might as well wait for a cut.

McCoy: Kept unless a team offers great value - at least a 3rd (I would not make that trade but it is possible). Or, more likely than a direct trade, could be traded as part of a move up in the draft. Bottom line, probably stays.

Clay, Benjamin: Staying.

Matthews: Not re-signed.

Glenn: Hard to move with contract and injury. Team will trade if they can as part of a package, but may be impossible.

Incognito: Likely to stay one more year. No trade value due to history, hard to see him cut after Pro Bowl selection.

Wood: Likely to stay. No real trade value.

 

Hughes: Probably traded for 4th round pick or as part of draft package.

Alexander: Cut. Can play, but will move on to another team.

 

I just don't see them needing that much salary cap relief if they get rid of Tyrod and 1-2 other players.

 

 

 

[keepthefaith]

7 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

He's 29 and the way his contract was set up this is the offseason to unload him. 

 

You can get production from rookie RBs. Beane/McD already had to burn a season with Taylor at QB, I just don't see them going from that to relying on an aging McCoy in the next one. They're trying to move this thing forward...you can get production from midround rookie RBs. 

 

You make some good points but McCoy would be a hard guy to replace.  He's a great runner and receiver, leader, seems like a good locker room guy and really showed his heart in preparing and playing that last game.  If I were McD, I'd be pushing back on Beane if he wanted to cut him.  Now if he can be traded for good value, maybe a different story. 

[GreggTX]

Hughes is the ONLY guy in our front 7 that I'd want to keep LOL. Maybe if we had ANYONE else that could help with the pass rush he'd get more sacks, but yeah. He sucks because he can't do it all by himself. I'd love it if we could even get a 4th round pick for Lawson, though. With Kyle in steep decline, we literally could replace all of our DT's with dumpster dive guys and be better off. Brown and Lorenzo need to go also. Milano needs to get better, but he's made good progress. 

 

Has it escaped everyone's attention that Glen has been playing on a bad foot and has played at a high level in the past? Also, Elway and the Broncos would love to have him, but yeah. Good OL are a dime a dozen these days, right?

Edited January 10, 2018 by GreggTX

[GunnerBill]

14 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

He's 29 and the way his contract was set up this is the offseason to unload him. 

 

You can get production from rookie RBs. Beane/McD already had to burn a season with Taylor at QB, I just don't see them going from that to relying on an aging McCoy in the next one. They're trying to move this thing forward...you can get production from midround rookie RBs. 

 

That is all fine except, and I know this will not go down well with the "RBs are a dime a dozen" crowd, McDermott and Beane come from a place that has used resources on running backs. DeAngelo Williams and then Jonathan Stewart have been among the most highest paid backs in the league during Beane's tenure at Carolina and the  they just spent a 1st round pick on one last year. 

 

I don't believe that this Bills regime subscribes to the dime a dozen theory! 

11 hours ago, papazoid said:

CUTS in order of cap hit

 

tyrod taylor

kelvin Benjamin (biggest surprise) bills will attempt to sign long term, but fail

Lorenzo alexander

Patrick demarco

andre holmes

Vladimir ducasse

Adolphus washington

 

TRADES 

cordy 

hughes

 

STAY ONE MORE YEAR

shady

clay

richie

 

I'd be surprised by Benjamin and Ducasse. I feel both are favoured by coaches on this team to the extent that they will still be here. I also think they will get something for Tyrod.... not a lot but I think a team throws them something to get ahead of the FA queue. 

 

Other than that I agree entirely with your list. 

[Capco]

If healthy I just don’t see Glenn being released. He plays well enough to match his cap hit. 

 

Same with Hughes, McCoy, Lawson, Wood, and Cog.

 

People saying Clay is a goner are morons. 

[BearNorth]

Not sure with his issues Glenn can pass a physical anywhere but Buffalo

[Thurman#1]

16 hours ago, Jamie Muellers Ghost said:

too early to look at some possible incoming targets ?

 

 

Clay would lose us $2.5 mill. He might be a cut but probably not for the cap. More for injury / scheme concerns, if it happens, which I kinda doubt.

 

Incognito would save us a bit of money, but if he's a cut it won't be because of the cap.

 

Glenn would cost us as much in dead cap as we'd save by not paying him. We'd save like $100K.

 

Lorenzo Alexander would save us about $2 mill. 

 

McCoy would save us about half a mill. I could see a trade where they get something back, but not a cap cut.

 

I don't see anyone being cut for cap reasons, really. Lots of cuts, of course, but for other reasons. 

 

 

11 hours ago, beerme1 said:

 

I can't see Minn letting Bridgewater go. They love him. If they do I hope we pounce.

 

He'll be very expensive for them to re-sign. I can't see the letting Keenum go, but Keenum's a UFA and Bridgewater also isn't signed for next year. Can they keep both guys? It'd be seriously expensive.

 

They might have to let one of them go. And I'm with you, if Bridgewater is available I'd like to see the Bills work to bring him in.

Edited January 10, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Most of our cap casualties are already on the books.  We already have an 18 million dead cap number.  Tyrod saves us like 10 million if we cut him or trade him.  The roster bonus of 6 mil plus the 10 mil base means he's unlikely to be traded unless for pennies, and would likely need his deal re-done.  He knows he'll never suit up here under his current deal.

 

If he projects as a high end backup (which i think he does when you watch Cassel, Foles, Schaub, Hoyer etc) -  then that would put him in the 6 to maybe 8 mil top end per year range.  Foles got 2 years 11 million last year.  I look at Tyrod and see him backing up either a younger QB, or an oft injured guy like bradford where you know you can't roll into a season with a bad backup QB.

15 hours ago, Batman1876 said:

Why would we cut clay? Do people think he was so bad that hes worth getting rid of even if we don't gain anything for it? Do people think we would be better with 9 Mil of dead cap room than with Charles Clay on the roster? 

 

 

He wouldn't be a cut target, but i could see trying to move him in a trade (as he's overpaid though you're likely to get a dareus level return or worse)

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

Lorenzo Alexander would save us about $2 mill.

 

Pretty sure there is no guaranteed $$s left on his deal. If we cut him we save the full $3.5m cap hit. I think that makes it very likely he is gone. To pay that much just for his leadership would be a huge mistake IMO. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

15 hours ago, papazoid said:

CUTS in order of cap hit

 

tyrod taylor

kelvin Benjamin (biggest surprise) bills will attempt to sign long term, but fail

Lorenzo alexander

Patrick demarco

andre holmes

Vladimir ducasse

Adolphus washington

 

TRADES 

cordy 

hughes

 

STAY ONE MORE YEAR

shady

clay

richie

 

Lorax is 3 mil on an expiring deal - i'd keep him even if he just played teams and depth.  He's a locker room leader and was a special teams ace before the last 2 years.  I wouldn't cut benjamin as he has trade value if you wanted to dump him (i think they like him a lot though).  He's also under contract this year for a pretty reasonable 8 million.  Cutting dimarco saves us 500k, not sure we need to do that if we want to carry a FB.  Holmes/ducasse/washington are all cut candidates should they be replaced as they're fringe players anyway.

 

Cordy's tough to trade after ending the year on IR - he's likely a cut candidate in 2019 if he has another injury year.  Hughes is the only pass rusher on the team that's any good - so I doubt that they move him.

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Pretty sure there is no guaranteed $$s left on his deal. If we cut him we save the full $3.5m cap hit. I think that makes it very likely he is gone. To pay that much just for his leadership would be a huge mistake IMO. 

 

Half a mil signing bonus - http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/lorenzo-alexander-2773/ 

 

We're already rolling 18 mil in dead cap this year and only carried over 11... so we're -7 million in the hole before free agency even opens.  I don't look at this like a team who's going to be cutting and signing people like mad.  Likely make a play for a QB, and do some dumpster diving again.  They're trying to get out from under a number of bad contracts in Dareus, Glenn, Tyrod, Clay 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Lorax is 3 mil on an expiring deal - i'd keep him even if he just played teams and depth.  He's a locker room leader and was a special teams ace before the last 2 years.

 

Half a mil signing bonus - http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/lorenzo-alexander-2773/ 

 

Thanks.  So he saves $2.9m on the cap.  I'm cutting him at that price.  I thought he played well on Sunday against a team who hardly threw it.  Other than that he has been awful all year.  I get the leadership angle... but I'd rather give Kyle $3m to play 1 more year as a rotational DT and locker room guy than pay $3m for a guy I can't put on the field on defense.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Thanks.  So he saves $2.9m on the cap.  I'm cutting him at that price.  I thought he played well on Sunday against a team who hardly threw it.  Other than that he has been awful all year.  I get the leadership angle... but I'd rather give Kyle $3m to play 1 more year as a rotational DT and locker room guy than pay $3m for a guy I can't put on the field on defense.  

 

I dunno - we have cap space and like terrible depth regarding pass rushers and LBs. 

 

I wouldn't cut him until the depth charts are more solidified - so basically i bring him to camp and give him a chance to keep his job.

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

I dunno - we have cap space and like terrible depth regarding pass rushers and LBs. 

 

I wouldn't cut him until the depth charts are more solidified - so basically i bring him to camp and give him a chance to keep his job.

 

I don't want him on the field on defense next year at all.  He was our worst starter in 2017.  Worse than Jordan Mills, Vlad Ducasse, Ramon Humber, Adolphus Washington.... even when they started using him more as a rush end in sub packages he was poor.  2016 was a career year that was a total one off.  Not a fluke as such.... but not repeatable.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't want him on the field on defense next year at all.  He was our worst starter in 2017.  Worse than Jordan Mills, Vlad Ducasse, Ramon Humber, Adolphus Washington.... even when they started using him more as a rush end in sub packages he was poor.  2016 was a career year that was a total one off.  Not a fluke as such.... but not repeatable.  

 

Right - but I prefer having to beat someone out for a job.  If the new guy is better than him and wants his job, prove it on the field.

There's no bonus, or guarantee tied to the contract - so we can cut him any time before the season starts.  I'd bring him to camp.  Especially if KW retires.

Edited January 10, 2018 by dneveu

[GunnerBill]

Just now, dneveu said:

 

Right - but I prefer having to beat someone out for a job.  If the new guy is better than him and wants his job, prove it on the field.

 

But for the $3m..... nah... he doesn't justify that for me.  I do think his fate is likely linked to Kyle though.  If Kyle is back I think Alexander is cut.  If Kyle retires they likely keep Lorax.  

[Captainrc4]

Tyrod Taylor, Tate, Logan Thomas, Wright, they will try and Trade Glenn. No way they release Clay or McCoy. You get a rookie QB you need a workhorse RB and a TE that can help in both pass and blocking. Clay and McCoy are safe

 

Icognito may be released depending on how true his racial slurs are and if it really did happen. 

Edited January 10, 2018 by Captainrc4

[GoBills808]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That is all fine except, and I know this will not go down well with the "RBs are a dime a dozen" crowd, McDermott and Beane come from a place that has used resources on running backs. DeAngelo Williams and then Jonathan Stewart have been among the most highest paid backs in the league during Beane's tenure at Carolina and the  they just spent a 1st round pick on one last year. 

 

I don't believe that this Bills regime subscribes to the dime a dozen theory! 

 

This is backwards. Hurney was in charge of giving away those two RB contracts which by all accounts strapped the team who then brought in Gettleman to fix the situation, ie dropping Williams and forcing Stewart to renegotiate. Beane is a Gettleman guy who's learned his lesson and I feel very confident saying he's definitely NOT going to be dealing with RBs how Carolina once did with Double Trouble. 

[MAJBobby]

Here are some to watch for

 

Taylor - Cut of traded

Hughes - Cut or traded

Clay

Incognito

Lorax

Mills

Holmes

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

This is backwards. Hurney was in charge of giving away those two RB contracts which by all accounts strapped the team who then brought in Gettleman to fix the situation, ie dropping Williams and forcing Stewart to renegotiate. Beane is a Gettleman guy who's learned his lesson and I feel very confident saying he's definitely NOT going to be dealing with RBs how Carolina once did with Double Trouble. 

 

Beane grew up under Hurney. He has worked under Gettleman too.... but Gettleman spent a 1st on a scat back in April. Carolina values running backs. I am extremely doubtful that Beane is a dime a dozen believer. 

[Freddie's Dead]

On 1/9/2018 at 2:45 PM, GoBills808 said:

Darkhorse is McCoy IMO.

We have zero offense without him, so this dark horse is a black hole.  

 

Outgoing

 

Humber - Cheap depth

Richard?  NFW, our best OL by FAR, pay the man

PB - No way we keep him at the number he'll want as NFL tackles leader

Tolbert - Don't let the door hitya...

KW? - NFW, our best DL by FAR, pay the man if he wants to play

Shareece - Cheap depth

Tate - We need a better PR/KR, bye

Joe Webb - Cheap depth, ST'er?

Leonard Johnson - Solid CB, keep him for the right price

Thornton - GAN

Taiwan Jones - GAN

Shamarko Thomas - GAN

Travaris Cadet - depends on health, if ankle healed, cheap depth, otherwise GAN

Deonte Thompson - GAN, playoff game against Jax was a !@#$ing disaster

EJ Gaines - Pyay thyat myan hyis myoney

Seantrel Henderson - Cheap depth if healthy, otherwise GAN

 

 

[Mango]

On 1/9/2018 at 7:27 PM, BigBuff423 said:

 

Again, I disagree - in a year where the roster gets another overhaul, having a 3rd 5th round pick means you have more capital to move in other rounds, ala 3rd and 5th for a low 2nd, etc. but even if the team gains a 5th and just uses it as is, this roster needs depth EVERYWHERE. And a 5th round pick could be a valued asset like Karlos Williams or Kyle Williams or a WR / ST guy...point being, a 5th round pick has value and can add to the youth movement while using that $3.7 million toward ANOTHER player such as a Paul Richardson type of Offensive line depth...

 

 

I do not get this. We have issues with depth, so we are going to create more holes at starting positions. It’s constant moves like these that have already kept the Bills in futility for 17 years.

 

We need major help on the right side of the OL. Our starting LT was supposed to be our RT. So cut/trade our LT to use said draft capital/money on a new LT or RT? Add Richie and Wood to the discussion (from some posters)and we now need a LG, C, RG, and RT. But at least we have mobility to package picks? 

 

Shady, we are !@#$ed if this happens.

 

The entire DL is an issue. So cut the only serviceable pass rusher we have, and our second best pass rusher. That means via draft and free agency we need 4 new starters on the DL?

 

CB1/2 depending on where you put Gaines. There was “some security” there with Roby, but he’s gone via trade. Now we have to use said draft pick to find his possible replacement? 

 

Clay is a tremendous safety valve for any new QB. Shouldn’t go.

 

The entire LB group needs an upgrade.

 

QB, we all know something is changing.

 

Chip Kelly thought he was the smartest guy in the room and it got him canned. You can’t decimate a roster and expect to be good. We have very serious concerns about a ton of positional groups as well as depth. Some created by this regime and prior. Continuing that trend will only point downward. We simply can’t address all of the above in a way that upgrades the roster in a single offseason, sorry. “Draft mobility” doesn’t make up for losing 14 of our starters. Those are the names being listed in this thread.