Draft a QB or pay for one?

[Fadingpain]

It would depend entirely on who the FA QB is going to be.

 

He would have to be pretty darned good right now to make me give up on drafting our own QB, which is really the right way to go about doing it.

 

Not sure Eli (at this point in his career) or Cousins are compelling enough to make me pull the trigger on either.

 

 

[LeGOATski]

Build your team around a good draft pick. You find a kid with a good head on his shoulders and the talent to make all the throws. Then you commit to developing him. He doesn't need to be a polished prospect right away. 

 

I like Mason Rudolph as that guy and hopefully the Bills won't have to sell the farm to get him. 

[ddaryl]

36 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I'd like to put it out there as "crazy talk" that the best answer might be....do both!

 

I thought the Eagles were pretty nuts when they traded for Sam Bradford while they had Nick Foles.  I thought StL got the better end of that swap.

I thought they were even nuttier when, having traded for Sam Bradford, they signed him to an extension - THEN traded up for Wentz.

 

But how do they look now?  They got a 1st and 4th round pick for Bradford.  Wentz has been playing well.  And they were able to resign Foles as a capable backup.

 

 

Its a good deal if you can trade for a QB who has a contract in place that doesn't hamstring your salray cap for years and if that QB stil has some worth when you want to dump and let your drafted guy take over. Philly hit pay dirt but would the Bills be able to accomplish the same...  or do we end up holding the bag

 

A FA QB like COusins wouldn't be a tradeable asset because he will break the bank... ALex Smith doesn't have many years left to be worthy of a 1st rd trade if we aquired

 

After that I don't know who or what would or is available

Edited December 12, 2017 by ddaryl

[Bing Bong]

Both

39 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I'd like to put it out there as "crazy talk" that the best answer might be....do both!

 

I thought the Eagles were pretty nuts when they traded for Sam Bradford while they had Nick Foles.  I thought StL got the better end of that swap.

I thought they were even nuttier when, having traded for Sam Bradford, they signed him to an extension - THEN traded up for Wentz.

 

But how do they look now?  They got a 1st and 4th round pick for Bradford.  Wentz has been playing well.  And they were able to resign Foles as a capable backup.

Don't forget Seahawks with Flynn and Wilson.

[bills_fan]

3 hours ago, jrober38 said:

Good QBs don't come from the Free Agent Market. 

 

We need to draft and develop our own guy. 

 

Drew Brees says hi!

[John from Riverside]

3 minutes ago, bills_fan said:

 

Drew Brees says hi!

That just shows how often it does not happen

[jrober38]

4 minutes ago, bills_fan said:

 

Drew Brees says hi!

 

One guy in 20 years. 

 

Anyone else we should have signed or did you just prove my point for me? 

Edited December 12, 2017 by jrober38

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, aristocrat said:

 

what is brees record over the last few years? need a team around the guy to succeed. if we can get him for nothing or very little. then surround with a draft class like last year we will be on our way to long success

 

There is zero possibility anyone gets Cousins for nothing or very little.  So you can scratch that option officially off the list

[SoCal Deek]

These things all come down to timing.  The Bills do NOT have a core to build around with a veteran free agent QB.  He will have peaked out right about the time the other stock pile of 2018 Picks is coming of age, and you'll be right back where you started.  Take a QB, some O Lineman and a MLB in the Draft, and let them get up to speed together.  You build a team from the center of the field.

[aristocrat]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

There is zero possibility anyone gets Cousins for nothing or very little.  So you can scratch that option officially off the list

 

i meant as far as trading for his rights if that's what it comes down to.

[LeGOATski]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

There is zero possibility anyone gets Cousins for nothing or very little.  So you can scratch that option officially off the list

Yeah, getting a guy like Brees or even a lesser talent, but still viable QB like Alex Smith, requires lucky timing. It has to be a guy who has shown promise, but isn't really on the radar.

 

The only such prospects I can think of right now are Keenum and Brissett; maybe Bortles.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Eastcoastlegacy said:

These are estimates.

 

Right now, looking at standings our 1st from KC is 16 (1000pts),  our pick is 20 (850pts).  Our second round picks will be worth about 420 and 380.  The list of teams ahead of us: 

 

1. (3000pts)  Browns: QB is very likely (new GM, Kizer underwhelming)

2.  (2600pts) Giants: QB is very likely

3.  (2200pts) 49ers: QB is possible (but less likely due to Jimmy)

5.  (1700pts) Broncos: QB is possible (no sign they are sold on Lynch)

9.  (1350pts) Redskins: QB is necessary if they lose Cousins

10.  (1300) Jets: quite probable

11.  (1250) Bengals: possible

 

A move up to 3rd or 4th pick would require both firsts, and a second.  and that gets you the third QB off the board.  Is anyone here sold on the idea that the third selected QB in the draft is worth 2 first round picks and 1 or 2 second round picks?  Is one first and one second round pick worth trading for the 4th choice of QB in the draft?

 

2017: 3rd qb: Mahomes, 4th QB: kizer

2016: 3rd qb: Paxton Lynch, 4th: Connor Cook

2015: 3rd qb: Bryce Petty, 4th: Garret Grayson

 

And yes, I know there are better QBs in the 2017, 16, 15 drafts than those listed above, but they were taken later and wouldn't need to be acquired by a trade-up.

 

I'm not sure selling the farm for 3rd choice is the way to go.

 

 

 

 

49ers are 100% out of the QB market.  Jimmy is already 2-0 as the starter with over 600 yards passing with Marquise Goodwin as his #1 WR.  Think about that.

 

Broncos are at a win now moment, they will most likely not take a QB in top 10 and will go get a vet they feel they can win with.  The recently won the SB with the worst starting QB ranking in the NFL that year between Manning and Brock, and the worst performance in SB history by a winning QB.  They know if they can get solid QB play they can compete right now, and Elway wants to win now.  Guys like Tyrod, Smith, the odd man out in Minn (Bridgewater, Keenum, or Bradford), etc I think are more likely plays for Denver.  And if Giants new regime decides to move on from Eli too, then I think Eli is probably a sure fire lock to be in Denver to follow in his brothers footsteps for a late SB trophy.

 

Browns 100% go QB IMO.  GM knows QB is the highest priority.

 

Giants are not a lock to go QB and I think they probably won't, not at least in the top 10.  Remember, new GM and HC will come in and Eli also lost all his WR's this year.  This team isn't that far off if it hadn't gotten hurt.  They may look to make one more run with Eli and their injured players back, so I think there is a GOOD chance they go OL, RB or some other position with their first pick to try and make a rebound next year.  

 

Redskins will go QB if they lose Cousins, but I am still not convinced they will move on from Cousins.  So this is a "who knows" type scenario currently.

 

Jets I also agree likely go QB unless there isn't one they like enough available when they pick and target one in the 2nd.  McCown has played well for them, so they may look to the secondary with that first pick and grab a guy in the 2nd.  Their secondary is a train wreck.

 

Bengals I seriously doubt go QB.  I think they will fire the staff and bring someone in to see if they can get that team over the hump before going after a Dalton replacement...unless they blow the whole thing up and trade Dalton to a contender like Denver.

[bills_fan]

My point with Brees is that if the Bills braintrust believes Cousins is the next Brees, go all in.

 

CLE and NYG are taking QBs at 1 and 2.  So, at best, you are getting the third best QB in the draft class.  How many draft classes have 3 franchise QBs?  Not many...last one I can think of off the top of my head is 2004 (Eli, Rivers and Ben).  That was the year we took Losman.  Nothing will set this franchise back more than giving up all those picks and ending up with JP Losman part 2.

 

EDIT: I mean...that list is ugly for the "third" franchise QB....

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000810915/article/ranking-this-millenniums-17-quarterback-draft-classes

 

Edited December 12, 2017 by bills_fan

[Alphadawg7]

7 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

 

i meant as far as trading for his rights if that's what it comes down to.

 

Ah, gotcha...ok I see what you mean then

[SoCal Deek]

If the Bills want to draft a QB they should do it.  If you look back over the last decade, there is no sure thing at ANY round of the draft when it comes to the QB position.  Stay right where you are...pick the best there when you're number is called.  Or...if you get a chance to move up a 'couple' of slots, do so...but do NOT sell everything to get some kid who is a 50/50 shot at best of working out.

[Eastcoastlegacy]

12 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

49ers are 100% out of the QB market.  Jimmy is already 2-0 as the starter with over 600 yards passing with Marquise Goodwin as his #1 WR.  Think about that.

 

Broncos are at a win now moment,

 

Giants are not a lock to go QB and I think they probably won't, not at least in the top 10.  

As crazy as it sounds there is some talk in the Bay area that the 49ers may be showing Jimmy off because they may try to leverage him for a first round pick when they go after Cousins still.  That would open up an opportunity for us potentially, but also any other team sold on one of these guys to jump up.  I will admit though, in my opinion this is very, very unlikely.  

 

Broncos might want to be in win now mode, but they aren't.  They lost their epic SB defense when Phillips walked away, and I'm not convinced Vance Joseph is a guy who has a back-up plan.  

 

The writing is on the wall for the Giants.  They may not want to take a QB but I think there is a good understanding that Manning is winding down.  If they return to form next year, where will their next franchise QB come from when they are back to picking in the 15-20 range?  They will have a chance to sit in QB purgatory with us.  They have an opportunity to take a QB now that will set them up in the future even if they want to roll with Manning for another year or two.  GB was happy to take Rodgers with Favre in place and was in no hurry to start him.   NYG would have that luxury.

 

The bottom line is there are no sure things, we all know that.  I do think the Bills need to draft a QB in the first or second, no doubt.  However, I would not advise trading everything to get the third "best" option.  We should stay put and take the best of the lot, and hopefully improve our situation with a reasonable Vet FA.

[Alphadawg7]

30 minutes ago, Eastcoastlegacy said:

As crazy as it sounds there is some talk in the Bay area that the 49ers may be showing Jimmy off because they may try to leverage him for a first round pick when they go after Cousins still.  That would open up an opportunity for us potentially, but also any other team sold on one of these guys to jump up.  I will admit though, in my opinion this is very, very unlikely.  

 

Broncos might want to be in win now mode, but they aren't.  They lost their epic SB defense when Phillips walked away, and I'm not convinced Vance Joseph is a guy who has a back-up plan.  

 

The writing is on the wall for the Giants.  They may not want to take a QB but I think there is a good understanding that Manning is winding down.  If they return to form next year, where will their next franchise QB come from when they are back to picking in the 15-20 range?  They will have a chance to sit in QB purgatory with us.  They have an opportunity to take a QB now that will set them up in the future even if they want to roll with Manning for another year or two.  GB was happy to take Rodgers with Favre in place and was in no hurry to start him.   NYG would have that luxury.

 

The bottom line is there are no sure things, we all know that.  I do think the Bills need to draft a QB in the first or second, no doubt.  However, I would not advise trading everything to get the third "best" option.  We should stay put and take the best of the lot, and hopefully improve our situation with a reasonable Vet FA.

 

I think the Jimmy thing is just crazy conspiracy theory.  Outside of that, don't really disagree with anything you said.  Elway is just not a patient guy and he understands his window is close to closing.  With how competitive he is, I think he is going to stick with trying to win now, but thats strictly just my opinion of course.  

 

Giants situation is completely dependent on who they hire of course.  If they feel they can win early with Eli and their guys back, they may elect to prioritize the OL (which would be good for any future young QB anyway) or the run game and maybe grab a young QB in the 2nd to 4th rounds to try and groom for the future.  I do think they take a prospect at QB, but we won't know where until they new staff is hired and hear their near term plans.

 

But again, pretty much agree with you on most accounts, especially since there are no sure things.  I do think the Niners are 100% out of the QB market though despite what crazy rumors there are.  Jimmys short resume looks good in NE and SF so far.

 

Edited December 12, 2017 by Alphadawg7

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, bills_fan said:

My point with Brees is that if the Bills braintrust believes Cousins is the next Brees, go all in.

 

CLE and NYG are taking QBs at 1 and 2.  So, at best, you are getting the third best QB in the draft class.  How many draft classes have 3 franchise QBs?  Not many...last one I can think of off the top of my head is 2004 (Eli, Rivers and Ben).  That was the year we took Losman.  Nothing will set this franchise back more than giving up all those picks and ending up with JP Losman part 2.

 

EDIT: I mean...that list is ugly for the "third" franchise QB....

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000810915/article/ranking-this-millenniums-17-quarterback-draft-classes

 

The next Drew Brees is Baker Mayfield.

[Steptide]

I would say it depends on who's available. I have no interest in cousins. However if luck was available and fully healthy, I would consider that. 

[John from Riverside]

I think that people need to come to terms with the fact that if they do want to move up to get one of the top qbs....its gonna take a lot of chips.

 

We will however have plenty of free agency salary cap to spend to fill holes

 

Im thinking Both 1sts and a high pick next year.   But if it fills the most important position on the field at a cheap contract?

[JaCrispy]

6 hours ago, Woodman19 said:

I don't care how, I just want a good QB.

...and preferably one where running isn’t their best attribute. 

[Teddy KGB]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

One guy in 20 years. 

 

Anyone else we should have signed or did you just prove my point for me? 

 

Garropolo, Farve, Schaub, Gannon 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

46 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I think the Jimmy thing is just crazy conspiracy theory.  Outside of that, don't really disagree with anything you said.  Elway is just not a patient guy and he understands his window is close to closing.  With how competitive he is, I think he is going to stick with trying to win now, but thats strictly just my opinion of course.  

 

Giants situation is completely dependent on who they hire of course.  If they feel they can win early with Eli and their guys back, they may elect to prioritize the OL (which would be good for any future young QB anyway) or the run game and maybe grab a young QB in the 2nd to 4th rounds to try and groom for the future.  I do think they take a prospect at QB, but we won't know where until they new staff is hired and hear their near term plans.

 

But again, pretty much agree with you on most accounts, especially since there are no sure things.  I do think the Niners are 100% out of the QB market though despite what crazy rumors there are.  Jimmys short resume looks good in NE and SF so far.

 

 

...has to be crazy......although it remains to be seen, I think he has a better upside than Cousins.....never was much of a Cousins fan and certainly not at $24 mil, but then again we're talking about Danny Boy Snyder and his gang......crazy money is out there......a/k/a Glennon at 15 mil riding the pine.......Cousins could get tagged again for 34 mil which would redefine absurd....

Edited December 12, 2017 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[TFBillsfan]

I'd like the Bills to get their QB this year. Trade one of their first and next years first to do it but don't trade both this year. Still gives you your QB plus your another first, second and thirds to still address needs this year. QB, LB, WR and DT with your first four picks. RB in later round. Address other needs in FA.

[Eastcoastlegacy]

I have a question.  For the sake of this exercise lets assume we pick 3rd overall.  If you are scouting QBs but you know you are 3rd, the 2 teams ahead of you are picking QBs and you are therefore targeting what may be the 3rd 'best."  You get the guy you were targeting, did you still "get your guy?"  Even though you may have ideally preferred one of the other two already taken?

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...has to be crazy......although it remains to be seen, I think he has a better upside than Cousins.....never was much of a Cousins fan and certainly not at $24 mil, but then again we're talking about Danny Boy Snyder and his gang......crazy money is out there......a/k/a Glennon at 15 mil riding the pine.......Cousins could get tagged again for 34 mil which would redefine absurd....

 

Yeah I just don't see cousins as worth what he will get.  He is a quality starting QB, but the money he might land is way above his value IMO.  

 

I actually think Jimmy G has the potential to be a very good QB in this league, he certainly looks the part in the few opportunities he has shown.  I am always skeptical when I see NE part with him given Brady's age, but no denying the guy has impressed as a starter given his light resume so far.  I hope trading him really comes back to bite NE in the backside.

[CountryCletus]

Pay Keenum..... he will be your cheaper option, and just as talented 

[Buffalo86]

Love Mayfield if he falls to us, or possibly Lamar Jackson.  While Cousins will probably command the highest contract ever, I think he'll be a perennial top 5 QB and probably worth the price.  Doubt we can afford it, though.

[buffalo2218]

2 hours ago, Buffalo86 said:

Love Mayfield if he falls to us, or possibly Lamar Jackson.  While Cousins will probably command the highest contract ever, I think he'll be a perennial top 5 QB and probably worth the price.  Doubt we can afford it, though.

Pass on Jackson, seen enough of him through Taylor over the years. We need a true passer and while I wouldn't be against bringing in Cousins, the Bills FO need to really hit on all their picks in the first 3 rounds to build around Cousins. The one thing that scares me is how the coaching staff seems to favor Ducasse, I just hope they don't favor him enough to leave him at RG next year

Edited December 13, 2017 by buffalo2218

[stuvian]

I want us to draft a QB at #1. I wake up in the middle of the night from a nightmare where we trade a #1 for Case Keenum

[Buffalo86]

11 hours ago, buffalo2218 said:

Pass on Jackson, seen enough of him through Taylor over the years. We need a true passer and while I wouldn't be against bringing in Cousins, the Bills FO need to really hit on all their picks in the first 3 rounds to build around Cousins. The one thing that scares me is how the coaching staff seems to favor Ducasse, I just hope they don't favor him enough to leave him at RG next year

 

I've seen more than enough of Tolbert, too!

10 hours ago, stuvian said:

I want us to draft a QB at #1. I wake up in the middle of the night from a nightmare where we trade a #1 for Case Keenum

 

He's a FA in 2018, so don't lose any more sleep over that.

[SoCal Deek]

13 hours ago, Eastcoastlegacy said:

I have a question.  For the sake of this exercise lets assume we pick 3rd overall.  If you are scouting QBs but you know you are 3rd, the 2 teams ahead of you are picking QBs and you are therefore targeting what may be the 3rd 'best."  You get the guy you were targeting, did you still "get your guy?"  Even though you may have ideally preferred one of the other two already taken?

Yes you got your guy. The only team that has a different mind set is the one that picks first in Round One. After that pretty much all of the other picks for every team become increasingly consolations with each player coming off the board.  Nothing to be ashamed or scared of. The Bills will be in a great position to take a QB in 2018 and there are no locks in the coming draft class. They're is about as much chance of getting a guy with the third one off the board as there is with one and two this year....IMHO

[buffalo2218]

27 minutes ago, Buffalo86 said:

 

I've seen more than enough of Tolbert, too!

 

He's a FA in 2018, so don't lose any more sleep over that.

No doubt about Tolbert, but I won't mind seeing Dennison given his walking papers either

[SoTier]

22 hours ago, P51 said:

Personally, if we could land Cousins, I'd sign him and keep the picks especially if both Buffalo and Kansas City end up with picks in the lower half of the 1st round.  The cost of moving up would be steep and personally I would rather have a QB (I consider Cousins a franchise QB watching him here in VA all the time) and 4 (4 picks in the 1st 2 rounds) more players.

 

Given Buffalo's current picks, they could package their 2 -1sts and 2 2nds to move up (using the trade value chart) to the 3rd pick w/SF, and their would likely be 2 QB's off the board already, so they would be getting their 3rd choice likely...

 

IMO: Cousins + 4 picks in the top 64 > 3rd Choice of QB in draft. 

or 

Cousins + 4 picks in the top 64 > 4/5/6th QB choice at 18 and 3 more picks in the top 64 or any other combination or moving up and losing picks.

 

However, I dont see us landing Cousins so.... 

 

This is what makes the most sense but it's not going to happen because I don't see the Bills landing Cousins either.  I am adamantly opposed to trading up for any QB except the consensus #1 pick in the draft.  They succeed about 80% of the time, after that the success rate drops like a rock: 50% for QBs in the top half of the first round.  Trading up for the 3rd best QB prospect ... supposing there even is one ... is a waste of resources.  If 2 QBs are already off the board, stay put and see who's available at your spot ... or take a flier on a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round. 

 

Somebody like Mayfield who's undersized but who would otherwise likely be a first round prospect would be a good choice if he fell in the first round or into the second.  Lack of size can be compensated for (Brees, Wilson, and Cousins have all proven that) but you can't compensate for a lack of the instinct/processing ability/"it" factor that separates guys like Peyton, Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Wilson, etc from guys like Sanchez, Ponder, Gabbert, Osweiler, etc.

10 hours ago, stuvian said:

I want us to draft a QB at #1. I wake up in the middle of the night from a nightmare where we trade a #1 for Case Keenum

 

How'd that work out in 2013?  It's not ANY QB but the RIGHT QB that they have to draft.  If there's nobody worth taking, take another position and see what's up in the 2nd round.  It's a lot easier to send a 2nd round bust packing than a 1st round one.

[SoCal Deek]

SoTier, I disagree. The Bills have let numerous first round picks go. The changes in the rookie salary cap have made it less painful and embarrassing. If the Bills personnel department executes the draft correctly they should know whether the third or fourth QB will be there in mid round one or round two. IMHO it makes little difference when you pick him this year. They've got a stockpile of picks to use.

[Freddie's Dead]

Give Cousins a 5-year, $125 mill contract, $75 guaranteed.  In 3 years, it'll be a bargain.

[Victory Formation]

We don't have a shot at Rosen, I want Josh Allen. Some say he will be there when we pick, in my mind it's too early to say. The draft board is going to change dramatically but Josh Allen is my guy.