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Bills miss Post Season and ruin draft status.


Tatonka68

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3 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

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I expect the Bills to lose to the Pats twice which I believe gives us 4 losses in the conference.  If the Bills and TN are both 9-7, the Bills win that tie breaker if the Titans lose to the Jags.  Of course Buffalo has to beat Indy and MIA twice.

 

 

That would give us 5 conference losses (CIN, NYJ, LAC, NE, NE)

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This has been the pattern for most of the drought. Never good enough to win a playoff spot but never bad enough (except for Gregg Williams 3-13) to draft even close to the first pick.  We also haven't had any luck from other teams losing when they were supposed to. It will be particularly galling this year if we don't make it. We should have won both the Carolina and Cincinnati games. I just hope at least we have a win and your in scenario for the last game.

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3 hours ago, Tatonka68 said:

Looking at the rest of the Schedule the best the Bills can do is 9-7 with wins against the Colts and two against the Dolphins. The Ravens who now hold the last spot have games against the Lions, Steelers, Browns, Colts and Bengals. They should win at least against the Browns, Colts, Bengals and hold the tie breaker over Bills. So the Bills will not make the playoffs and drop in the draft. Typical.

You needed to be hugged more as a child...                         ;)

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49 minutes ago, BillsfanAZ said:

I think there is the problem. Everyone would love for the Bills to have a top rated QB fall to them in the draft and have him be the future. Then the alarm clock goes off and we keep hitting snooze. A QB needs to go to the right system with the right players around him to be successful. Look at Mason Rudolph. He has talent but he has great receivers, good RB, and a good coaching staff as well. The Bills are not going to be in a position to get the top 2 or 3 QB's. I dont think they should waste the draft capital to move up. Everyone is always going to second guess the Bills. If Cousins, Luck, or Manning get moved to other teams, fans will complain. If the Bills draft a QB but he doesnt play right away, fans will complain. If he does play and he struggles, fans will complain. There is no simple answer. If the Bills can land Cousins and use the draft picks and free agency to put more talent on the team, I think success will come sooner than later.

Sure an exciting 10-6 one and done playoff run. Whoopee!! How about getting an elite QB and win some rings. The simple answer is to get the next greatest QB. BILLIEVE!!

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3 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Seriously.  I think the Jets crush them this week...beat them by two scores.  KC offense is just terrible right now and the Jets defense will give them more problems.

I think the Chargers roll them too.

 

Dolphins, Raiders and Broncos are the other last 3.  I think the Broncos is the only game where they should handle.  It's a toss up between the Raiders and Dolphins.

 

8-8 I believe would get us in the top 10.  This is a Chiefs team that has lost 5 of 6 and one of those teams was the Giants.  They might even finish worse than 8-8 with they way they are playing.

 

If the Chiefs lose to the Jets, which is likely, there will be a lot of pressure to play Mahomes, which could lead to even more losing...I could see the Chiefs finishing 7-9, which would be incredible given how good they looked early on.

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The Bills had no draft " status " to begin with, as they are not CLE or SF.  Target the right QB , and do what is necessary to draft him. If draft status was the gold standard, the Browns would be ruling the NFL landscape right now. That couldn't be further from the truth, obviously. Don't make the mistakes that past regimes have. It's really that simple. They will end up where they end up. 

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4 hours ago, Tatonka68 said:

Looking at the rest of the Schedule the best the Bills can do is 9-7 with wins against the Colts and two against the Dolphins. The Ravens who now hold the last spot have games against the Lions, Steelers, Browns, Colts and Bengals. They should win at least against the Browns, Colts, Bengals and hold the tie breaker over Bills. So the Bills will not make the playoffs and drop in the draft. Typical.

I think the Ravens probably get in, but the Bengals are not out of it. They are 5-6 and one game behind the Ravens. They have a talented defense that can shut the Ravens down. I know the Ravens beat them earlier, but prior to this year's loss the Bengals had won 5 of their previous 6 games against Baltimore with more or less the same team as they have now. 

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There's a reason we get to see Taylor's limitations as a passer -- his excellent ability to escape the pass rush.  Put a better passer who can't escape into the same lineup and you'll just get a busted QB.  That might have been a big part of the Peterman fiasco.  Peterman started out hitting Benjamin on a tough pass, put in exactly the right spot.  The our FB tipped a well-thrown ball to a defender and we were behind, and then Bosa and the other guy started having Peterman sandwiches.  Taylor goes in for the second half and is back to his old self -- miracle escapes from the pocket, and passes that are just in the wrong place. 

 

Anyway the point is, if we don't fix the O line and the blocking schemes, drafting a great rookie QB is just a waste of everyone's time. 

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4 hours ago, aceman_16 said:

So what....  ? we were never going to be drafting in the top 5 to make it matter. Whether we finish 9 to 15 it still would take significant capital to move up for a top 2 qb.

The higher we are the less significant the capital.

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5 hours ago, Tatonka68 said:

Looking at the rest of the Schedule the best the Bills can do is 9-7 with wins against the Colts and two against the Dolphins. The Ravens who now hold the last spot have games against the Lions, Steelers, Browns, Colts and Bengals. They should win at least against the Browns, Colts, Bengals and hold the tie breaker over Bills. So the Bills will not make the playoffs and drop in the draft. Typical.

There's many more factors than that but Baltimore is our biggest direct competition in my mind, and then Cincy. Ravens should beat the browns and colts, but don't sleep on the Bengals being an easy win. Bills get to 10-6 and I think we're in, but I agree 9-7 likely doesn't get it done.

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1 hour ago, Buffalo Boy said:

The higher we are the less significant the capital.

So basically you may have to toss in an additional 3 round pick is the difference between 9 and 15. Either way.... I prefer to watch good football than attempt to full on tank and STILL not be guarenteed a difference maker. This isnt the NHL where the 1st pick is a "sure thing."

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6 hours ago, aceman_16 said:

So basically you may have to toss in an additional 3 round pick is the difference between 9 and 15. Either way.... I prefer to watch good football than attempt to full on tank and STILL not be guarenteed a difference maker. This isnt the NHL where the 1st pick is a "sure thing."

Are we watching “ good football”?  

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12 hours ago, Tatonka68 said:

Looking at the rest of the Schedule the best the Bills can do is 9-7 with wins against the Colts and two against the Dolphins. The Ravens who now hold the last spot have games against the Lions, Steelers, Browns, Colts and Bengals. They should win at least against the Browns, Colts, Bengals and hold the tie breaker over Bills. So the Bills will not make the playoffs and drop in the draft. Typical.

we know. Thank you.

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16 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

Are we watching “ good football”?  

I think we have seen some good football - yes. Please dont twist good football with a good team. Also, to watch a team like the Browns, 49ers, Giants etc is brutal and often unwatchable and relative to those teams.... Buffalo has been playing good football.

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13 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Thanks for stating the already stated.  One thing I've learned over the many years of the drought is that the rest of the games NEVER play out the way they might appear on paper.

 

Of course, the other thing I've learned is that given the chance, the Bills will set themselves up only to lose to Miami in Week Seventeen.

This.

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13 hours ago, aceman_16 said:

I think we have seen some good football - yes. Please dont twist good football with a good team. Also, to watch a team like the Browns, 49ers, Giants etc is brutal and often unwatchable and relative to those teams.... Buffalo has been playing good football.

Current O Rank

points 22

yrds.    26

Pass yards 30

Rush yards 12

 

Current D Rank

points  23

yards    25

pass yards 22

rush yards  21

 

only the rushing stats are in the second third of the league, all others are bottom third or lower, some much lower.

There is no confusion on my part, seeing a TD from time to time and a lucky Turn over by the D might be exciting but Good Football this Most decidedly is not.

The 49 era and Giants have recent past Good history, we do not. While not the Browns we are not a good organization, nor have been going on 2 decades.

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26 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

Current O Rank

points 22

yrds.    26

Pass yards 30

Rush yards 12

 

Current D Rank

points  23

yards    25

pass yards 22

rush yards  21

 

only the rushing stats are in the second third of the league, all others are bottom third or lower, some much lower.

There is no confusion on my part, seeing a TD from time to time and a lucky Turn over by the D might be exciting but Good Football this Most decidedly is not.

The 49 era and Giants have recent past Good history, we do not. While not the Browns we are not a good organization, nor have been going on 2 decades.

Look I can get cute too with stats.... here were Buffalo's stats from earlier this year:

 

Offense

Passing: 174.0 (29)
Rushing: 111.3 (12)
Total: 285.3 (26)
Scoring: 16.7 (25)
Turnovers: 1 (t-1)
Third down conversion rate: 39.1% (15)

 

Defense

Passing: 203.0 (9)
Rushing: 75.3 (7)
Total: 278.3 (6)
Scoring: 12.3 (1)
Takeaways: 4 (t-9)

 

As you can with numerical proof (as similarly offered by you) nearly EVERY category is in the top 1/3 of the league. These numbers (to me) decidely show the Bills have played some good football at some point of the year. I can cherry pick better rnumbers to present. IF you want you can go back to previous game posts and take a general consensus that during the 5 and 2 run people generally felt like good football was being played (even though flawed). Go further and check out the Giants, 49ers and the Brown's board if you wish.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, aceman_16 said:

Look I can get cute too with stats.... here were Buffalo's stats from earlier this year:

 

Offense

Passing: 174.0 (29)
Rushing: 111.3 (12)
Total: 285.3 (26)
Scoring: 16.7 (25)
Turnovers: 1 (t-1)
Third down conversion rate: 39.1% (15)

 

Defense

Passing: 203.0 (9)
Rushing: 75.3 (7)
Total: 278.3 (6)
Scoring: 12.3 (1)
Takeaways: 4 (t-9)

 

As you can with numerical proof (as similarly offered by you) nearly EVERY category is in the top 1/3 of the league. These numbers (to me) decidely show the Bills have played some good football at some point of the year. I can cherry pick better rnumbers to present. IF you want you can go back to previous game posts and take a general consensus that during the 5 and 2 run people generally felt like good football was being played (even though flawed). Go further and check out the Giants, 49ers and the Brown's board if you wish.

 

 

If you run a mile race and lead for the first third but ultimately end in the bottom half, was it a good race?

 

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On 11/29/2017 at 6:06 AM, Tatonka68 said:

Looking at the rest of the Schedule the best the Bills can do is 9-7 with wins against the Colts and two against the Dolphins. The Ravens who now hold the last spot have games against the Lions, Steelers, Browns, Colts and Bengals. They should win at least against the Browns, Colts, Bengals and hold the tie breaker over Bills. So the Bills will not make the playoffs and drop in the draft. Typical.

 

It's very typical indeed and going 9-7 and missing the playoff does nothing but hurt this franchise  in terms of draft position and sell more false hope heading into 2018.

 

Ravens defense is legit and if they beat the Lions this week they are definitely getting into the playoffs and probably only losing one more game (at Pit). And still think Jax and Ten are locks just still TBD in terms of who wins the AFCS and who gets one of the WC spots.

 

Just wish this team would have truly tanked this year so they could control their own destiny with a top 3 draft pick instead of pretending they were good enough for the playoffs.

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if the bills win 9 games with this roster, i see it as a success.  not that it helps the bills in any way, but it could be a great indication that we have extremely solid coaching.  i still won't know what to think about this staff until after draft. 

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On 11/29/2017 at 9:53 AM, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Seriously.  I think the Jets crush them this week...beat them by two scores.  KC offense is just terrible right now and the Jets defense will give them more problems.

I think the Chargers roll them too.

 

Dolphins, Raiders and Broncos are the other last 3.  I think the Broncos is the only game where they should handle.  It's a toss up between the Raiders and Dolphins.

 

8-8 I believe would get us in the top 10.  This is a Chiefs team that has lost 5 of 6 and one of those teams was the Giants.  They might even finish worse than 8-8 with they way they are playing.

 

Luck threw 31 TD's last year with 4,200 yards passing.

 

Fine - lucks great.  He was so great they went 8-8.

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2 hours ago, aceman_16 said:

Yes IF you predicted before the race you were going to fall and trip at the starting line and were aiming at "next year."

If losing the race this year set you up to possibly win it for the next 10+ years, I think there is a logic to that.

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On 11/29/2017 at 1:21 PM, Boatdrinks said:

The Bills had no draft " status " to begin with, as they are not CLE or SF.  Target the right QB , and do what is necessary to draft him. If draft status was the gold standard, the Browns would be ruling the NFL landscape right now. That couldn't be further from the truth, obviously. Don't make the mistakes that past regimes have. It's really that simple. They will end up where they end up. 

 

The Browns, who keep passing on top Qbs and drafting high are a convenient but not really accurate example.

 

It's also convenient to leave out the Rams and Eagles, how did they turn it around?

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2 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

You're blaming Luck for Indy's problems?  

 

YEAR AGE BASE SALARY SIGNING ROSTER CAP HIT DEAD CAP
2016 27 $12,000,000 $6,400,000 - $18,400,000 $44,000,000
2017 28 $7,000,000 $6,400,000 $6,000,000 $19,400,000 $41,600,000
2018 29 $12,000,000 $6,400,000 $6,000,000 $24,400,000 $22,200,000
POTENTIAL OUT: 2019, 3 YR, $75,000,000; $12,800,000 DEAD CAP        
2019 30 $9,125,000 $6,400,000 ######### $27,525,000 $12,800,000
2020 31 $11,000,000 $6,400,000 ######### $28,400,000 $6,400,000
2021 32 $11,000,000 - ######### $21,000,000 -
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1 minute ago, dneveu said:

 

YEAR AGE BASE SALARY SIGNING ROSTER CAP HIT DEAD CAP
2016 27 $12,000,000 $6,400,000 - $18,400,000 $44,000,000
2017 28 $7,000,000 $6,400,000 $6,000,000 $19,400,000 $41,600,000
2018 29 $12,000,000 $6,400,000 $6,000,000 $24,400,000 $22,200,000
POTENTIAL OUT: 2019, 3 YR, $75,000,000; $12,800,000 DEAD CAP        
2019 30 $9,125,000 $6,400,000 ######### $27,525,000 $12,800,000
2020 31 $11,000,000 $6,400,000 ######### $28,400,000 $6,400,000
2021 32 $11,000,000 - ######### $21,000,000 -

 

You’re right.  There has never been a high salaried QB that has ever been successful.

 

Its not Indy’s drafts, Irsay, Pagano, Grigson etc....

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Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

You’re right.  There has never been a high salaried QB that has ever been successful.

 

Its not Indy’s drafts, Irsay, Pagano, Grigson etc....

 

I find him to be overrated - jmo.  

 

I guess tanking kinda sorta worked for them...  But i don't think the guy wins a super bowl in Indy.  

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2 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

You're blaming Luck for Indy's problems?  

 

 

....makes PERFECT sense, doesn't it?.....top notch ownership, a stellar GM (former) in Grigson who the Browns now hired (VALUE), a formidable OL (COUGH) and a solid run game....ALL fingers obviously point to Luck.....I have 29 grand in the glove box and a whole bunch of pills if that helps....

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