Playoffs? Playoffs?? The Playoff Chances Thread

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

2 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

So my weekend is basically rooting for the Bills and Browns to win. When is the last time the Bills and Browns won on the same day? 

[eball]

It certainly gets interesting for Buffalo if they can beat the Fish twice (a big if, in my opinion), even assuming Baltimore wins out.

[26CornerBlitz]

 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/upshot/nfl-playoff-machine.html

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Just now, eball said:

It certainly gets interesting for Buffalo if they can beat the Fish twice (a big if, in my opinion), even assuming Baltimore wins out.

Tennessee can be caught also. @SF is a tough game with Jimmy G. Then they play 2 division leaders, Rams and Jags. 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

2 hours ago, eball said:

It certainly gets interesting for Buffalo if they can beat the Fish twice (a big if, in my opinion), even assuming Baltimore wins out.

 

I just pray that we win next week so we can be in it the final week. Would be great to play a meaningful game on the last day of the season. 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Albwan]

ravens are a pretty good team, dont see them losing 2 more games. They

went toe to toe with the steelers.

[26CornerBlitz]

3 minutes ago, Albwan said:

ravens are a pretty good team, dont see them losing 2 more games. They

went toe to toe with the steelers.

 

They typically do as bitter division rivals. 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[MDH]

On 12/11/2017 at 9:07 AM, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

 

Based on that article it appears that Bills most likely way to get into the playoffs is to end up tied with the Chargers and Titans at 9-7 which means that the Bills probably want the Chiefs to win this weekend despite it killing the draft pick we get from them.

 

It seems unlikely that the Bills would end up tied at 9-7 with only the Chiefs which is what they'd need in order to win the tiebreaker with the Chiefs. Any 3 way tie that includes the Chiefs and the Chiefs make the playoffs.

[Boatdrinks]

2 hours ago, MDH said:

 

Based on that article it appears that Bills most likely way to get into the playoffs is to end up tied with the Chargers and Titans at 9-7 which means that the Bills probably want the Chiefs to win this weekend despite it killing the draft pick we get from them.

 

It seems unlikely that the Bills would end up tied at 9-7 with only the Chiefs which is what they'd need in order to win the tiebreaker with the Chiefs. Any 3 way tie that includes the Chiefs and the Chiefs make the playoffs.

That's pretty much it in a nutshell. If you want the Chargers to beat the Chiefs, then you are hoping TEN implodes down the stretch going 0-3 and dropping out at 8-8. While they have a tough schedule , it seems less likely than a 1-3 finish with their last 2 vs division leading Rams and Jaguars. 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[boyst]

I'm getting into the playoffs and losing is pointless

[26CornerBlitz]

538 Sports NFL Playoff Predictor: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nfl-predictions/

[The Frankish Reich]

Beat Miami tomorrow: playoff chances 31%

Lose to Miami tomorrow: it's over. 2%

 

Beat Miami twice, lose to the Pats: 52% chance of making it (better than I expected! this is what we realistically should be focused on)

Win all 3: 89% chance

 

All from fivethirtyeight, still the best projection system out there.  You can also (like the NYT) play around with what other teams do, but since that's outside our control, I thought it would make sense to focus on the Bills themselves.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

13 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Beat Miami tomorrow: playoff chances 31%

Lose to Miami tomorrow: it's over. 2%

 

Beat Miami twice, lose to the Pats: 52% chance of making it (better than I expected! this is what we realistically should be focused on)

Win all 3: 89% chance

 

All from fivethirtyeight, still the best projection system out there.  You can also (like the NYT) play around with what other teams do, but since that's outside our control, I thought it would make sense to focus on the Bills themselves.

 

 

if they lose, throw the 2% out and move on to next season with the hopes of making the postseason in 2018.

 

of course it'll be like that of the past when some will still cling on to hoping other teams fail but it wont make anymore difference then in the past.

 

this is absolutely a must win and frankly they need all three to have the best shot.

 

that 14% chance isn't anything to get all giddy about, is it

Edited December 16, 2017 by DaBillsFanSince1973

[The Frankish Reich]

The realist in me says we split with Miami, lose to the Pats, and end up watching again at 8-8.

But the fan in me says: this is completely within our reach. We're not asking for the impossible - beating the Pats in Foxboro. Just beating the Dolphins twice. And beating them tomorrow leaves them effectively out of contention, so we'd have something to play for in the final week while they're just playing out the string. In other words: it's do-able, and it's not an incredible long shot.   (but yes, we are the Bills ...)

[RiotAct]

Didn’t 538 predict that the 2016 Presidential election would be really, really close?  I think they had Hilary winning, but not by much

[The Frankish Reich]

2 hours ago, RiotAct said:

Didn’t 538 predict that the 2016 Presidential election would be really, really close?  I think they had Hilary winning, but not by much

538 had Trump with about a 1 in 3 chance of winning, which was way higher than most other prognosticators.  And, of course, in the previous presidential election they pretty much pitched a shutout, something like 49 or 50 out of 50 states called correctly.

[baskingridgebillsfan]

Tyrod = no playoffs .   the good news is the powers that be get it and will upgrade the position 

the bad news another year down the drain

my take is the win tomorrow then lose that last 2 

[Boatdrinks]

They have a pretty legitimate chance going into week 17 IF they beat MIA tomorrow. I don't think they've had a realistic chance in the final week in quite some time. I haven't loved all of McD and Beanes decisions , but I'd be fairly happy with that. As for 538 , it's a bit unfair to bring up 538' s prediction in the 2017 Presidential election. It would be akin to having 538 predict Sunday's game results but having the game winners determined by fan voting. 

[Fadingpain]

All in all, where we stand as of today is very fair IMO.

 

We are a middling team that still has a solid shot at making the playoffs, if we can get it together and finish the season on a strong note.

 

Want a coin flip chance of making it?  Suck it up and beat Miami twice, and give NE a tough game, but lose!

 

If that's too close for comfort, step up to the plate and do something remarkable--beat NE in NE and really help your odds by jumping up to 89% chance to qualify.

Screw this all up and lose to NE and say 1 or 2 Dolphins games?  A crap team like that has no business in the playoffs and probably would lose its first game in the playoffs badly.

 

We have more control over our own destiny, this late in the season, than we have had in a long time.

 

It's fair enough.

 

 

[100DollarBills]

I'm fairly sure we want to root for the Chiefs tonight, with the remaining games of both teams, we have a better chance if KC wins the conference since LA beat us. 

I don't see how we can catch the Ravens. They Play CLE, IND, and CIN . I think they win out. Our only chance is to catch the Titians and to hope Chargers fall out. If the Titians lose against the 49ers, which I think is more probable that hoping for Ravens to lose out, the Bills have a great chance to take over the Titians. Assuming we take care of business. 

[The Frankish Reich]

18 minutes ago, 100DollarBills said:

I'm fairly sure we want to root for the Chiefs tonight, with the remaining games of both teams, we have a better chance if KC wins the conference since LA beat us. 

Correct but right now, it would be a negligible hit to our playoff chances if the Chargers win (a drop from the current 21% chance to 19% chance).   The only AFC game this weekend (other than our own) that has an appreciable impact on our chances is Titans-Niners. If the Niners win (and with Jimmy G., I'd give them a pretty good chance) it bumps us up to a 38% chance of getting in IF we beat the Dolphins.

 

This Miami game is, of course, critical. Win it and even without help from the Niners we're at a 32% chance of making it. That means we're Trump on the eve of the election (sorry). Lose it and we absolutely must beat the Pats (in Foxboro!) and Dolphins and get a bunch of help.  

 

 

 

 

Edited December 16, 2017 by The Frankish Reich

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

I think the phins come in here feeling pretty confident. some use the short week but were not talking tnf short. they just spanked brady and the patsies** so that in itself will pick up their step.

 

expect taylor to be running more then he wants to be.

 

my prediction was 17-14 bills but that is only if the defense is able to create a few turnovers and the offense (aside from the pick six) needs to convert them into points and not have a game like that against cincy?

 

buffalo better be ready and up for the challenge?

Edited December 16, 2017 by DaBillsFanSince1973

[Another Fan]

How about the odds of us winning the division and getting a home playoff game? The Pats are playing the Steelers this week so it's not unfamothable they could lose.  I mean I'm sure it's like .00001%.  But gosh darn it there's still a chance 

[100DollarBills]

1 hour ago, Another Fan said:

How about the odds of us winning the division and getting a home playoff game? The Pats are playing the Steelers this week so it's not unfamothable they could lose.  I mean I'm sure it's like .00001%.  But gosh darn it there's still a chance 

I think there is still a chance. If the Pats lose out and we win out, I think we win the division. 

[LABILLBACKER]

If you can't go 4-2 in your own division you don't deserve to make the playoffs. 

[The Frankish Reich]

1 hour ago, 100DollarBills said:

I think there is still a chance. If the Pats lose out and we win out, I think we win the division. 

That's right.  If that happens, we're division champs.

And for some Saturday night math ... what are the odds of that happening? Using 538's odds:

Bills over Dolphins (Game 1): 62% chance

Bills over Pats: 16%

Bills over Phins 2: 43%

 

Steelers over Pats: 53% (yup, they're favored at home)

Jets over Pats: 12%

 

That's 5 separate events:  multiply them all together (that's how you do it if they are independent events, which they kind of are here) and you get ....

0.27 percent chance of the Bills winning the division.  So maybe you shouldn't spend time bidding for those Divisional Round home playoff tickets.

[Lenigmusx]

A rare post these days but KC's victory last night changed things drastically in our favor. A win today and a loss this week by NE to Pittsburgh and anything is still possible. We will for the first time in many many years control our own destiny. I was able to get the Bills as high as the 2 seed with a first round bye using the playoff calculator. In many of the scenarios the Bills are the 6 seed traveling to either Jax or KC. In either of the matchups I like our chances. Although I agree that TT is a stop gap at this point if we just take the wraps off him and let him play "Flutieball" instead of fitting him into Denison scheme, I think there is a chance to win two and get in. Beating Miami twice gets us in 8 out of 10 times now that San Diego lost to KC. Also winning out and the Jets getting revenge on that Pats gets us the division. Tennessee beating Ajax the final week gets us the two seed in a couple scenarios. We could crap the bed completely but we even get in 2 scenarios at 8-8? 

[QB Bills]

Any scenario involving the bills going into new england and beating them in a late season game that the Pats need is just not rooted in reality. No way they win that game unless something completely unforeseen happens. 

 

I'm as hopeful as anyone, but to be completely objective, the team has gotten worse as the year has progressed, which is a bad sign for this coaching staff. I really don't see them beating Miami twice. Maybe not even once. Let alone the Patriots. You never know though, I guess. 

Edited December 17, 2017 by QB Bills

[John in Jax]

I want what you're smoking. It certainly will give me the ability to escape from all reality, and quite frankly, I'd like to do that right now!

[Clyde Smith]

With Tyrod under center I don’t like our chances in the next few games. Unless he starts playing lights out and chucking the ball downfield, I don’t see us winning 3 games maybe one.

[Tsaikotic]

Thad Brown‏ @thadbrown7 1h1 hour ago

Up to the minute #Bills playoff scenario. If they finish 9-7, they make the playoffs with:

Ravens lose at least 1 of last 2 (v IND, v CIN) OR -  Titans split next 2 (@ SF, v RAMS) and lose @ JAX OR - Titans lose 3 and Chargers lose 1 more

[BuffaloMatt]

1 hour ago, QB Bills said:

Any scenario involving the bills going into new england and beating them in a late season game that the Pats need is just not rooted in reality. No way they win that game unless something completely unforeseen happens. 

 

I'm as hopeful as anyone, but to be completely objective, the team has gotten worse as the year has progressed, which is a bad sign for this coaching staff. I really don't see them beating Miami twice. Maybe not even once. Let alone the Patriots. You never know though, I guess. 

I tend to agree - in that dreamland scenario pats* would lose four in a row.  

[Lfod]

1 hour ago, QB Bills said:

Any scenario involving the bills going into new england and beating them in a late season game that the Pats need is just not rooted in reality. No way they win that game unless something completely unforeseen happens. 

 

I'm as hopeful as anyone, but to be completely objective, the team has gotten worse as the year has progressed, which is a bad sign for this coaching staff. I really don't see them beating Miami twice. Maybe not even once. Let alone the Patriots. You never know though, I guess. 

I have the opinion that if the Bills had an offence we have a shot at beating the Pats. Your never gonna do that scoring 3 points. That's why I agree that beating the Pats looks impossible and beating Miami twice is unlikely. I place that entirely on the offence. 

[The Dean]

1 hour ago, Lenigmusx said:

A rare post these days but KC's victory last night changed things drastically in our favor. A win today and a loss this week by NE to Pittsburgh and anything is still possible. We will for the first time in many many years control our own destiny. I was able to get the Bills as high as the 2 seed with a first round bye using the playoff calculator. In many of the scenarios the Bills are the 6 seed traveling to either Jax or KC. In either of the matchups I like our chances. Although I agree that TT is a stop gap at this point if we just take the wraps off him and let him play "Flutieball" instead of fitting him into Denison scheme, I think there is a chance to win two and get in. Beating Miami twice gets us in 8 out of 10 times now that San Diego lost to KC. Also winning out and the Jets getting revenge on that Pats gets us the division. Tennessee beating Ajax the final week gets us the two seed in a couple scenarios. We could crap the bed completely but we even get in 2 scenarios at 8-8? 

 

Tournament?

 

I know this is a tough truth for many Bills fans, but "Flutieball" was responsible for ZERO playoff victories in the NFL.  While I agree the Bills best chance probably involves Tyrod rolling out and running a bit more, it also needs him to throw down the field more often. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

Just now, The Dean said:

 

Tournament?

 

I know this is a tough truth for many Bills fans, but "Flutieball" was responsible for ZERO playoff victories in the NFL.  While I agree the Bills best chance probably involves Tyrod rolling out and running a bit more, it also needs him to throw down the field more often. 

 

.....don't think Dennison got that memo.....then again, our WR's are usually INACTIVE on Sundays anyway................