The Dean Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 (edited) you mean greater than 99% ??? I think he had to mean that. But even that is an overstatement. Still pretty good odds, though. Edited October 30, 2017 by The Dean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 30, 2017 Author Share Posted October 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 31, 2017 Author Share Posted October 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 31, 2017 Author Share Posted October 31, 2017 @SNFonNBC Several teams are making moves in the @NFL playoff race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted November 2, 2017 Author Share Posted November 2, 2017 @PFF Win-Loss predictions for every NFL team https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-nfl-win-predictions-for-all-32-teams-over-the-rest-of-the-season With the midpoint of the season approaching, it’s time to run the PFF analytics on what the rest of the season will look like. Using our PFF data we are going to project wins for every NFL team with input from the grading as well as strength of schedule going forward. These wins are rooted heavily in our data that produces the PFFELO rankings each week, and has proven to have a very strong indicator to win probability. So here is where we have every team projected by the end of the season. (5-2) BUFFALO BILLS: 9.9 WINS Strength of Schedule to date: 18thRemaining Strength of Schedule: 16th The Bills are 5-2 right now and 4-1 over their past five games, and while getting to 10 wins would be doubling their win total, it would see them lose twice the number of games down the stretch as they have lost to date. This is still a team in flux, as their multiple moves around the trade deadline shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 Way too early for playoff talk. The team has had some hot starts before in 2008 in 2011, they were even 4-2 last year. Take care of business against the Jets on the road and then I think you can start to get a little more excited. The Bills could easily lose against the Jets. The Jets are 3-5, they aren't very good but they aren't a complete doormat and this is a road game, its always hard to win on the road in the NFL. A playoff team does not miss the opportunity to get fat and beat a divisional opponent. Division record is a huge tie breaker and it always hurts to drop a road game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted November 2, 2017 Author Share Posted November 2, 2017 Way too early for playoff talk. The team has had some hot starts before in 2008 in 2011, they were even 4-2 last year. Take care of business against the Jets on the road and then I think you can start to get a little more excited. The Bills could easily lose against the Jets. The Jets are 3-5, they aren't very good but they aren't a complete doormat and this is a road game, its always hard to win on the road in the NFL. A playoff team does not miss the opportunity to get fat and beat a divisional opponent. Division record is a huge tie breaker and it always hurts to drop a road game. Does any of that matter at all in 2017? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted November 2, 2017 Author Share Posted November 2, 2017 NFL Total Access Midseason Playoff Predictor: Who's In? (2:39) Heath Evans and Willie McGinest Pick Playoff Teams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted November 2, 2017 Author Share Posted November 2, 2017 Unpopular Opinions: Three Fresh (and Plausible) Potential Super Bowl LII Matchups -- Buffalo Bills vs. Minnesota Vikings. These are two of the most hard-luck NFL franchises when it comes to Super Bowl futility. The Vikings took turns being beaten by all of the best AFC teams of the 1970s: the Steelers, Raiders, Dolphins and Chiefs. The Bills lost four Super Bowls in the 1990s. Somebody would have to win this one. (I mean, they would, right?) This would also be fun because Buffalo quarterback Tyrod Taylor is one of the best players in the league nobody is talking about. Billscoach Sean McDermott makes Eddie Guns look like Screech. And could you imagine a better story than the Vikings' Teddy Bridgewater returning from a horrific knee injury to be the first quarterback to start a Super Bowl in his home stadium? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted November 2, 2017 Author Share Posted November 2, 2017 @FO_ASchatz Get ready for shocking playoff appearances update: Jags and Bills have easiest remaining schedules according to DVOA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted November 2, 2017 Author Share Posted November 2, 2017 NFL.com Analysts Predict the AFC Playoff Teams At the midpoint of the 2017 NFL season, our analysts refresh their predictions on the major individual awards and forecast the entire playoff field. Check back Friday for Championship Sunday/Super Bowl LII outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 The only two teams that I fear matching up with in the playoffs are the jaguars and their aggressive defense much like ours. And the chiefs because their offense is a lot like ours. Other than that I can't see matchups where they're not even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silver bill Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 If Bills beat the Jets and Saints, then beat the Colts and sweep the Dolphins, 5 winnable games, our playoff odds are <99%. Really, Vinnie? Keeping things conservative, I picked wins against the Saints, Chargers, Dolphins (x2), and Colts. Which gave us a 48% chance of making the playoffs. If we win those AND add just one victory against the Raiders, Jets, Chiefs or Patriots (x2), it says we have a >95% of making the playoffs. Nice I think the Saints are one of the top teams in the league. I think we will make the playoffs, but I don't see the Saints game as a conservative pick or likely win. Colts and Dolphins x2 for sure. And we should win tonight. The only two teams that I fear matching up with in the playoffs are the jaguars and their aggressive defense much like ours. And the chiefs because their offense is a lot like ours. Other than that I can't see matchups where they're not even. Not the Steelers? Football Outsiders has them as the best team in the league (I think) and well balanced. I'd love to get to the playoffs and not have to play them or the Chiefs in the first round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 I think the Saints are one of the top teams in the league. I think we will make the playoffs, but I don't see the Saints game as a conservative pick or likely win. Colts and Dolphins x2 for sure. And we should win tonight. Not the Steelers? Football Outsiders has them as the best team in the league (I think) and well balanced. I'd love to get to the playoffs and not have to play them or the Chiefs in the first round. the Steelers are not consistent enough for me to buy in yet.I could just as easily see them collapse and flounder as I could strap it up and dominate. And I sure as hell hope they fail and Tomlin gets exposed for the douche he is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 The post-Jets fiasco fivethirtyeight insta projection: Playoff chances down to 44%. Dropped from 63% with this one loss! No way to sugarcoat it, this was a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarlinTheMagician Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 Temporary setback. They are going to make it this year. You can only lose a game once, not a disaster despite the ugliness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fadingpain Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 Temporary setback. They are going to make it this year. You can only lose a game once, not a disaster despite the ugliness. It's hard not to find an area of the game tonight that wasn't a total disaster. It all went to hell at the same time on the same night. That might prove to be a blessing! Get it all out of our system and roll it up into 1 bad loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 Temporary setback. They are going to make it this year. You can only lose a game once, not a disaster despite the ugliness. Afraid not. Other than the Colts at home (and Dolphins at home? Depends on how they look the next few weeks), this was the game in which we'll probably be most heavily favored the rest of the season. You needed this one. That's why playoff chances dropped 20% in one fell swoop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smuvtalker Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 Afraid not. Other than the Colts at home (and Dolphins at home? Depends on how they look the next few weeks), this was the game in which we'll probably be most heavily favored the rest of the season. You needed this one. That's why playoff chances dropped 20% in one fell swoop. Agreed 100%. If I'm not mistaken, had we won last night, our playoff chances would have jumped to 80%? Jesus. 80% to 43%. One loss. Yesterday's loss hurt. Hurt so bad in so many ways. I'm praying we bounce back but our task at hand just got tremendously more difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted November 5, 2017 Author Share Posted November 5, 2017 New York Times playoff simulator How the Bills can make the postseason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted November 5, 2017 Author Share Posted November 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 On 11/1/2017 at 7:32 PM, 26CornerBlitz said: @PFF Win-Loss predictions for every NFL team https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-nfl-win-predictions-for-all-32-teams-over-the-rest-of-the-season With the midpoint of the season approaching, it’s time to run the PFF analytics on what the rest of the season will look like. Using our PFF data we are going to project wins for every NFL team with input from the grading as well as strength of schedule going forward. These wins are rooted heavily in our data that produces the PFFELO rankings each week, and has proven to have a very strong indicator to win probability. So here is where we have every team projected by the end of the season. (5-2) BUFFALO BILLS: 9.9 WINS Strength of Schedule to date: 18th Remaining Strength of Schedule: 16th The Bills are 5-2 right now and 4-1 over their past five games, and while getting to 10 wins would be doubling their win total, it would see them lose twice the number of games down the stretch as they have lost to date. This is still a team in flux, as their multiple moves around the trade deadline shows. That's why the Jets game was such a killer - this projection came before that game happened, and PFF probably had the Bills with about a 75% chance of beating the Jets. For the same reason the 538.com projected wins slipped from 9.6 to 8.7 following the Jets game. Because it came in Game 8, it won't be remembered with those other classic season killers (2004 loss to the Steelers' second team, etc.), but it really was that critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted November 5, 2017 Author Share Posted November 5, 2017 Just now, The Frankish Reich said: That's why the Jets game was such a killer - this projection came before that game happened, and PFF probably had the Bills with about a 75% chance of beating the Jets. For the same reason the 538.com projected wins slipped from 9.6 to 8.7 following the Jets game. Because it came in Game 8, it won't be remembered with those other classic season killers (2004 loss to the Steelers' second team, etc.), but it really was that critical. A win at home vs. the NOS will change that projection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Just now, 26CornerBlitz said: A win at home vs. the NOS will change that projection. A bit, yes, but that's close to a pick-em game (which was right where it was at until this weekend's games), so the NO game was probably baked into the projections cake as ~ .5 wins already ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM57 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 25 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: That's why the Jets game was such a killer - this projection came before that game happened, and PFF probably had the Bills with about a 75% chance of beating the Jets. For the same reason the 538.com projected wins slipped from 9.6 to 8.7 following the Jets game. Because it came in Game 8, it won't be remembered with those other classic season killers (2004 loss to the Steelers' second team, etc.), but it really was that critical. No it wasn't that critical. They have SEVEN conference games left, four of which are in the division. If they don't get in this year, it will be because they couldn't take care of business down the stretch in winnable conference games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Just ran the way i think season ends losses: Saints, NE, KC, NE 9-7 get in 75% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 This is fun to play with. I wanted to see what a stealing a Pats game does. So I ran it with: Loss to NO Win LA Loss to KC Win Pats Win Indy Win MIA Bills are 98% to make the playoffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted November 6, 2017 Author Share Posted November 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted November 6, 2017 Author Share Posted November 6, 2017 ESPN: NFL Playoff Picture: Bills Holding on to Wild-Card Spot Quote The Bills have had a strong first half but have a brutal stretch coming up. If they can make it through their tough schedule, Buffalo will deserve to be in the playoff race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 The Bills lost their " wiggle room" playoff wise by falling to the Jets. If you eliminate their likely losses to KC and New England (x2) , all others now fall into the " must win" category to reach the magic number of 10 victories. The Jets game was really huge in the big picture. Vs NO would have been the one the Bills could drop with little consequence to their playoff chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted November 6, 2017 Author Share Posted November 6, 2017 Fact or fiction: Who's the team to beat? Adam Schein confronts some harsh NFL truths: Are the Eagles really the league's best team? Are the Chiefs still a contender? Will the Rams hang on to the NFC West? See what he has to say after Week 9. 9) The Buffalo Bills will snap their 17-season playoff drought. I'm saying fact, -- though last Thursday night looked like Rex Ryan's Bills, with the irresponsible penalties and turnovers. And the schedule isn't kind over the next four weeks: -- vs. Saints -- at Chargers -- at Chiefs -- vs. Patriots But the sked lightens up down the stretch. And I still believe in Sean McDermott. I also loved the Kelvin Benjamin deal. These Bills (5-3) are poised to hit the playoffs for the first time since the 1999 campaign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott7975 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 On 11/2/2017 at 12:08 AM, Billsmisery said: Sucks that we could end up w a better record than Jax or Ten and still get a worse seed. Well the 2010 Seachickens went 7-9 and had a home playoff game against the 11-5 Saints. Think about how that felt lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTBill Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 If I missed this being posted here, sorry. This is the site I like looking at for playoff chances and analytics - it extends well beyond the NFL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted November 7, 2017 Author Share Posted November 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDH Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 21 hours ago, Boatdrinks said: The Bills lost their " wiggle room" playoff wise by falling to the Jets. If you eliminate their likely losses to KC and New England (x2) , all others now fall into the " must win" category to reach the magic number of 10 victories. The Jets game was really huge in the big picture. Vs NO would have been the one the Bills could drop with little consequence to their playoff chances. 9 wins will get it done this year. If the Bills can beat Miami x2 and Indy they likely need just one more win to get in. If that win is the Chargers all the better as it would eliminate pretty much all competition from the AFC west as the Bills would have tiebreakers over all of them. Punching those wins into the NYT playoff machine gives the Bills an 88% chance at the playoffs at 9-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 All I know is that 13-3 almost guarantees the #1 overall seed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFunPolice Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 The division is totally in the Bills hands. Beat NE twice and only lose 1 more and it's yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty McFly Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 We can def get in with the right 9-7 record. This team has the potential of going 10-6 too. We also have a floor of 7-9 Better than we all thought before week 1 tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted November 8, 2017 Author Share Posted November 8, 2017 Battle for the AFC's last spot: Who wins the 6th seed? (2:57) NFL Network's Reggie Wayne and Shaun O'Hara discuss whether the Buffalo Bills or Miami Dolphins will end up with the AFC's 6th seed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 2 to 3 more weeks until ESPN's machine comes back online Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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