dubs Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 (edited) It's pretty standard. It is math. It is not some type of opinion you can debate. Run the actual numbers in the 2016 draft. Run the actual numbers in the 9ers trade. Oh - wow actual GMs in 2017 use the chart. shocker! Its not math when subjective values are placed on these things. Jeez. Read a book for me one time! I have an idea. I love you're 2014 Toyota Corolla that's worth 150 bucks. So I'll give you 150 for it. Sound good? When can I pick up. Edited April 28, 2017 by dubs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianFan Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 WOW Raiders pick the guy who's facing rape charges Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
What a Tuel Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 It's pretty standard. It is math. It is not some type of opinion you can debate. Run the actual numbers in the 2016 draft. Run the actual numbers in the 9ers trade. Oh - wow actual GMs in 2017 use the chart. shocker! I could be wrong but doesn't the Bears/49ers trade blow the trade value chart away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubs Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 I could be wrong but doesn't the Bears/49ers trade blow the trade value chart away? But it's math! Whaley sucks. Ralph is cheap!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianFan Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 GUYS who's left on the board for our pick at 27? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 I could be wrong but doesn't the Bears/49ers trade blow the trade value chart away? You are wrong. The delta is 400 on the chart and the Bears gave up about exactly 400But it's math! Whaley sucks. Ralph is cheap!!!!You're a clown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCity Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 I could be wrong but doesn't the Bears/49ers trade blow the trade value chart away? Bears 2600 49ers 2200+255+104+41= 2600 It's right using the rough rule of thumb method of devaluing future picks by 1 round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDBillzFan Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Something I'll never understand: all you guys who know more than the Bills and could have done better...why are you all sitting here on a Thursday night posting on a random message board for a bad football team? Why aren't you in the War Room in Philly? We need you geniuses, dammit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianFan Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 who's left for us??? who's still awake??? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
What a Tuel Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Bears 2600 49ers 2200+255+104+41= 2600 It's right using the rough rule of thumb method of devaluing future picks by 1 round. So going by this idea, a 3rd round pick in 2018 is worth less than a 5th round pick right now? I mean it adds up, but that seems like silly logic. You get the guy for 5 years either way. I understand the "make an impact now" idea, but the Bears, Browns, 49ers, and maybe even the Bills aren't contending anytime soon for this to be considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubs Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 So going by this idea, a 3rd round pick in 2018 is worth less than a 5th round pick right now? I mean it adds up, but that seems like silly logic. You get the guy for 5 years either way. I understand the "make an impact now" idea, but the Bears, Browns, 49ers, and maybe even the Bills aren't contending anytime soon for this to be considered. Don't do any independent thinking. It's all about math and the chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPT Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 (edited) It's pretty standard. It is math. It is not some type of opinion you can debate. Run the actual numbers in the 2016 draft. Run the actual numbers in the 9ers trade. Oh - wow actual GMs in 2017 use the chart. shocker! Run the numbers on how many future #1 overall picks you would have to trade to get this year's #1 overall pick using the "1-round deduction" for future drafts. Never gonna happen. These are guidelines, not straight math. Also, everyone already knows the Bears got fleeced hard, so the fact that the numbers line up almost exactly should tell you how inaccurate they are. Edited April 28, 2017 by MPT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianFan Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Bills pick coming up. you guys still there? LOL it's white. A DB! geez. well we got 2 very good corners now (hopefully). Darby and White. Coach McD not exactly following the template from Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCity Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 So going by this idea, a 3rd round pick in 2018 is worth less than a 5th round pick right now? I mean it adds up, but that seems like silly logic. You get the guy for 5 years either way. I understand the "make an impact now" idea, but the Bears, Browns, 49ers, and maybe even the Bills aren't contending anytime soon for this to be considered. With the rough rule of thumb, the 3rd in 2018 would be worth a 4th this year. From what I understand, most teams use their own internal chart that vary slightly from the one posted here. Also, it's very important to understand that each draft is different and results can vary wildly depending on who is available. For example, there is no way you were trading into the #2 spot for the Luck/RG3 draft like Chicago did today. It took a king's ransom to get that pick because of the players involved. The naysayers can point out the aberrations, but for the most part the draft chart is still very much alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 @ChrisBrownBills McDermott: Having coach Reid in KC helped w/trust factor having worked with him, but Doug did a good job with this deal. #Bills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 @ChrisBrownBills McDermott: Having coach Reid in KC helped w/trust factor having worked with him, but Doug did a good job with this deal. #Bills Nice to see the company line toed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Everything is time value of money +1, Gerry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 @ChrisBrownBills McDermott: Having coach Reid in KC helped w/trust factor having worked with him, but Doug did a good job with this deal. #Bills What exactly is the trust factor really? What's the concern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 I guess, but you still get 5 years out of both players. But the person who makes that trade is more likely to be gone because of unmet expectations. Delayed gratification amounts to career suicide in a short term business like the nfl. If mcdermott has two losing seasons, he will be gone. Bank on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 @ChiefsReporter Dorsey told me the deal to trade up originated five days ago when he spoke w/ #Bills GM Doug Whaley. Said they spoke every day this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 (edited) Because you won't get the benefit of having that player play this season, he's not worth the same amount today as the player who will play this year I don't dispute the concept but I have issues with the discount rate being applied, especially when it's a first round pick. p.s. when's your next SF trip? Edited April 28, 2017 by KD in CA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Something I'll never understand: all you guys who know more than the Bills and could have done better...why are you all sitting here on a Thursday night posting on a random message board for a bad football team? Why aren't you in the War Room in Philly? We need you geniuses, dammit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan4 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Here's an good read for anyone interested. It's a comprehensive list of all 1st round trades the last 10 years. It tells basically every detail of the trade too. It's interesting to see how the value we got stacks up against other trades. http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/the-comprehensive-guide-to-10-years-of-first-round-trades/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 (edited) Run the numbers on how many future #1 overall picks you would have to trade to get this year's #1 overall pick using the "1-round deduction" for future drafts. Never gonna happen. These are guidelines, not straight math. Also, everyone already knows the Bears got fleeced hard, so the fact that the numbers line up almost exactly should tell you how inaccurate they are. "Everyone knows" Really? This is your statement: Actual NFL GMs used the chart to conduct an actual NFL trade. However "Everyone" (non NFL GMs) know the Bears got fleeced, therefore the chart that is used to conduct the trade is inaccurate. That is a spectacular post you got there budy. Really amazing logic. Edited April 28, 2017 by 1B4IDie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Billieve Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 it might be fun rooting against KC, especially if they have a lousy year. plus it might be nice to have some games to care about if i find myself ambivalent in november or december. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bookie Man Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 ok so how many draft picks did KC "spend" on Mahomes ? I remember this being quite a confusing subject during the Watkins trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderingsquid Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Omg 2 first round picks in 2018 with a great QB class. This is epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 (edited) Here's another way to look at the Chiefs trade. They spent 4 picks, including next year's 1st, on a player who is expected to do nothing for a year, maybe two. How would you grade it if it were the Bills? Probably not well. Edited April 28, 2017 by PromoTheRobot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 I don't dispute the concept but I have issues with the discount rate being applied, especially when it's a first round pick. p.s. when's your next SF trip? I like dropping one round as the discount for next yrs pick. Heading left soon, but unfortunately won't have any time to play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 (edited) I don't dispute the concept but I have issues with the discount rate being applied, especially when it's a first round pick. p.s. when's your next SF trip? #10 is 1300 points. #27 is 680 #91 is 136. So that's a difference of 484. That's between the 41st and 42nd picks, a 2nd round pick and a better one than average. We didn't take any discount whatsoever, we got a slight premium. I absolutely love this, and I don't absolutely love much the Bills have done for a lot of years. Smart move. Here's another way to look at the Chiefs trade. They spent 4 picks, including next year's 1st, on a player who is expected to do nothing for a year, maybe two. How would grade it if it were the Bills? Probably not well. I would hate it if I was the Bills. But the Chiefs are in better position to bench Mahomes and develop him. Not so bad for them, though I personally think Mahomes will never be a franchise QB, which would mean the trade will eventually be deemed a bomb on KC's side. But if anyone can mold Mahomes, it would be Andy Reid. The Bills don't have anyone I'd be as happy to see teaching a young QB. Edited April 28, 2017 by Thurman#1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrimeTime101 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 I think this was a solid decision to get a first going into next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed83HOF Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 The Bills don't have anyone I'd be as happy to see teaching a young QB Kinda damning for the franchise no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 @sharpfootball Bills (#27, 91 and 1st rd in 2018) got the better deal in #NFLDraft trade w Chiefs (#10) by getting 36.1 draft points & losing 19.9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Here's another way to look at the Chiefs trade. They spent 4 picks, including next year's 1st, on a player who is expected to do nothing for a year, maybe two. How would grade it if it were the Bills? Probably not well. Here's another way: the Chiefs, who have a far better record than the Bills over the last decade, were willing to spend four picks to ensure themselves a succession plan at the most important position. The Chiefs now have an established, experienced starter and a high-ceiling prospect to groom at the QB position. The Bills have a low-upside starter, TJ Yates, and Cardale Jones. But hey, at least we beat them in trade value points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Here's another way: the Chiefs, who have a far better record than the Bills over the last decade, were willing to spend four picks to ensure themselves a succession plan at the most important position. The Chiefs now have an established, experienced starter and a high-ceiling prospect to groom at the QB position. The Bills have a low-upside starter, TJ Yates, and Cardale Jones. But hey, at least we beat them in trade value points. This. Also, the bills are guaranteed to overdraft some RB with that pick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Great move by Whaley getting us an extra 1st in what should be a QB-heavy draft next year, AND getting an extra early pick this year (3rd), while still filling a need with the 2nd highest rated CB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 That 3rd rounder is going to come in very handy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Omg 2 first round picks in 2018 with a great QB class. This is epic. We have no idea yet what next year's QB class will look like. Guys can easily stay in school or have down years. It can easily turn into a very mediocre class of QBs. Then next year people will be saying to wait until 2019 to draft a guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffismagic Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 We have no idea yet what next year's QB class will look like. Guys can easily stay in school or have down years. It can easily turn into a very mediocre class of QBs. Then next year people will be saying to wait until 2019 to draft a guy. Rosen is interesting. He throws the ball so beautifully. But he is a California QB that doesn't like to get hit. If you draft him and give him a great line he can be insanely good. The issue is if you ever let him take hits he will give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Rosen is interesting. He throws the ball so beautifully. But he is a California QB that doesn't like to get hit. If you draft him and give him a great line he can be insanely good. The issue is if you ever let him take hits he will give up. Yeah Im not big on Rosen from what Ive seen. Hope to see better from him this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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