Jaylon Smith - What round is he worth the risk?

[KDIGGZ]

Before he got hurt in the bowl game, Jaylon Smith was one of my favorite players coming out. I could envision him with his athleticism, intelligence, and leadership running Rex's defense for many years to come.

 

I figured he would go in the top 5 and that we didn't have a chance. Many draft experts had him rated as the #1 best player in the draft. Then the news came out that his knee might be worse than first thought. He might not play at all this year and may never get back to his original playing speed.

 

He is going to be a big question mark. What round do you think the reward outweighs the risk with this guy? IF he gets back to where he was before he is a future pro bowler. But that's a big if!

[KD in CA]

I think the board consensus of rounds 3 or 4 is right. There's no way he plays in 2016 and there are serious questions about his recovery.

 

This could be a guy who is a shell of him former self if he ever gets on a field.

[BarleyNY]

End of draft compensatory pick, UDFA or wait and see. It's a shame, but he likely won't play a down in the NFL.

[Blokestradamus]

I've been convinced by others that if he's on the board when the Bills pick in the 4th round, take the shot.

 

He's a good kid, I know football is his life and any failure in his recovery won't be for a lack of trying.

[ndirish1978]

You'd have to be an upper echelon team with few glaring holes to draft him anywhere before the 4th round. That said, I could see one of the better teams in the league spending a 2nd or 3rd round pick on him because the don't NEED immediate starters and can afford to let him redshirt a year.

[playman]

5th. just because with the depth of this draft, we might land 2 starters in the 4th. or at least rotational players. but if the FO thinks a 4th - or even our 3rd - is worth it i am on board with that too.

[Augie]

I voted round 3, mostly because I want this kid to get better. Obviously anywhere from round 1 through UDFA is a possibility depending upon what the doctors have to say. If he's progressing well, late 1st is nice to get that 5th year allowing a "redshirt" year, but it doesn't sound like that's realistic. Regardless, I wish him well. I heard he had a $5 million insurance policy, so it's SLIGHTLY less tragic.

[atlbillsfan1975]

Did he suffer a set back?

[NoSaint]

as fans we may as well be throwing darts blindfolded to give an opinion on such a health dependent question. you trust your evaluations, and adjust accordingly but id be surprised if it was higher than 3-4, even if things are looking pretty good.

[H2o]

Did he suffer a set back?

Read a report saying he has what they call "drop foot". It's essentially where your foot flops around when you walk due to nerve damage. I'd say 4th Round compensatory depending who is on the board. I have also read that some view him as undraftable now.

[DasNootz]

I'll say round 3, but I don't think he makes it that far. Remember Willis McGahee? We still took him in the 1st after his devastating bowl game injury. Somebody will give him a chance on potential alone.

 

Here are the picks we've taken in the 3rd round in the last 10 years: As you can see, not many game changers. Even if Smith only had a 25% chance to be the player he was anticipated to be prior to the injury, the reward is worth the risk in my opinion. I'll take a 25% chance of a pro bowler over a 50% chance of a warm body to fill the roster.

John Miller
Preston Brown
Marquise Goodwin
Tj Graham
Kelvin Sheppard
Alex Carrington
Chris Ellis
Trent Edwards
Ashton Youboty

 

[Augie]

I won't be playing doctor here, but my son got a nerve in his left arm nicked about 18-20 months ago. Nerve regeneration is slow and painful. He can use his left hand but has problems with dexterity - buttons, tying string, etc. It's getting better slowly, but they say you just don't know how much improvement you will get, or how long it will take.

I'll say round 3, but I don't think he makes it that far. Remember Willis McGahee? We still took him in the 1st after his devastating bowl game injury. Somebody will give him a chance on potential alone.

 

Here are the picks we've taken in the 3rd round in the last 10 years: As you can see, not many game changers. Even if Smith only had a 25% chance to be the player he was anticipated to be prior to the injury, the reward is worth the risk in my opinion. I'll take a 25% chance of a pro bowler over a 50% chance of a warm body to fill the roster.

 

John Miller

Preston Brown

Marquise Goodwin

Tj Graham

Kelvin Sheppard

Alex Carrington

Chris Ellis

Trent Edwards

Ashton Youboty

 

Well, when you put it like that.....what the heck?!?!

 

Actually, I'd like to believe this staff can find a better player than those listed above in the third. Will they? No idea...

[Mr. WEO]

Read a report saying he has what they call "drop foot". It's essentially where your foot flops around when you walk due to nerve damage. I'd say 4th Round compensatory depending who is on the board. I have also read that some view him as undraftable now.

 

 

You can't play football with a foot drop. Walking is difficult.

[DasNootz]

Read a report saying he has what they call "drop foot". It's essentially where your foot flops around when you walk due to nerve damage. I'd say 4th Round compensatory depending who is on the board. I have also read that some view him as undraftable now.

and some reports say that medical staff from playoff teams think he'll be ready by 2017...

[VanCity]

Tragedy. If he plays in the NFL at all it will be a win, but picking him before the 5th round would be a massive mistake.

[Augie]

There's no salary cap for doctors. I hope we have the best money can buy. And then get lucky.

[H2o]

and some reports say that medical staff from playoff teams think he'll be ready by 2017...

Hope he is as a Notre Dame fan. Loved watching him in the blue and gold for 3 years.

[26CornerBlitz]

@TomPelissero

Spent the day in Fort Wayne, Ind., with @thejaylonsmith, who's 3.5 months past knee reconstruction and doing this: https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/723676301824020480/pu/vid/1280x720/ln0hvZ0BSa4aDqEg.mp4

[JM57]

If Buffalo traded down from #19 and somehow picked up an extra early 2nd round pick, I wouldn't be mad if Smith was on the board at #49 and was the selection.

[machine gun kelly]

With the unpredictable nature of nerve damage, whether it will heal or not, it would be crazy to use a draft pick before the 6th round. Remember we hit on Karlos Williams in the 5th. We need players this year.

 

If he is still there in the 6th, I can see using our last pick on him, but that's it. There is a real chance he never touches the field again. I know he's supposedly a good kid and the kind of player you want, but it is still a gamble.

[26CornerBlitz]

@USATODAYsports

Jaylon Smith likely won't play in 2016, but his surgeon says recovery odds are "very good." http://usat.ly/1Wib74R

[atlbillsfan1975]

Someone will take him by the third round. The upside is to great. It takes one team that has an extra pick in the 2nd to rationalize it to themselves.

Tenn has 3 picks in the first 15 of the second.

NE has two picks at the end of the second. I could see BB taking him.

Edited April 23, 2016 by atlbillsfan1975

[NoSaint]

 

@TomPelissero

 

Spent the day in Fort Wayne, Ind., with @thejaylonsmith, who's 3.5 months past knee reconstruction and doing this: https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/723676301824020480/pu/vid/1280x720/ln0hvZ0BSa4aDqEg.mp4

Is that impressive? Genuinely meant as a question, not a sarcastic dig.

[Punching Bag]

Player should rehab and renter the draft next year.

[Kirby Jackson]

I've been convinced by others that if he's on the board when the Bills pick in the 4th round, take the shot.

 

He's a good kid, I know football is his life and any failure in his recovery won't be for a lack of trying.

This is where I stand.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

How Jaylon Smith Became a Hopeful Mystery

Once considered a top-five pick, the surest thing in the NFL draft has gone from a certainty to an unknown. But the former Notre Dame star linebacker and his surgeon are teeming with optimism.

[26CornerBlitz]

@JoshNorris

New perspective from @ChrisCanty99 on Jaylon Smith's inj. Canty dealt with a similar future out of UVA. 11 yrs later http://www.nbcsports.com/video/2016-nfl-draft-injuries-top-prospects-could-cause-major-slides

[H2o]

As a Notre Dame fan I have watched Jaylon every week during the seasons over the last three years. The guy is a beast. He flies all over the field and makes tackles on every level. I worry about his injury though. Any time that your foot is flopping around due to nerve damage almost 5 months removed from an injury that has to be a bit scary and disheartening. I hope he makes a full recovery because he will be a Top 10 LB in the NFL imo. I would take a chance on him if he was still there in the 4th.

[papazoid]

a steal in 3rd round

[KDIGGZ]

As per PFT, lots of people still believe even with the injury Jaylon Smith will be gone in round 2 even perhaps end of round 1!

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/04/27/some-think-jaylon-smith-could-still-be-a-late-first-rounder/

[Beerball]

As per PFT, lots of people still believe even with the injury Jaylon Smith will be gone in round 2 even perhaps end of round 1!

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/04/27/some-think-jaylon-smith-could-still-be-a-late-first-rounder/

It is a move a team will make in round 2. The Bills don't have the luxury to choose him before round 3. (IMO)

[dave mcbride]

I put the 4th. I worry about him ever regaining his top-end speed.

[Coach Tuesday]

It is a move a team will make in round 2. The Bills don't have the luxury to choose him before round 3. (IMO)

 

How do you spend a 2nd round pick on a guy who can't even control his foot right now?

[dave mcbride]

A question: in retrospect, was Willis McGahee a good pick (irrespective of whether one thinks RBs aren't worth high picks)? Did he live up to his billing?

My view: he had a solid career and was a pretty good player for a few years, but he never regained the top-end speed he had in college. He wasn't a difference maker. Smith's injury, from what I've read, is complicated in the same sense that McGahee's was -- it wasn't a clean and simple ACL tear like Gurley's. The latter sort of injury is relatively easy to come back from now. I don't know about Smith's chances, however.

[NoSaint]

 

How do you spend a 2nd round pick on a guy who can't even control his foot right now?

You have a medical staff that thinks he will regain control in a way that will allow him to disrupt offenses consistently for the several years that follow

[Luxy312]

A question: in retrospect, was Willis McGahee a good pick (irrespective of whether one thinks RBs aren't worth high picks)? Did he live up to his billing?

My view: he had a solid career and was a pretty good player for a few years, but he never regained the top-end speed he had in college. He wasn't a difference maker. Smith's injury, from what I've read, is complicated in the same sense that McGahee's was -- it wasn't a clean and simple ACL tear like Gurley's. The latter sort of injury is relatively easy to come back from now. I don't know about Smith's chances, however.

 

The difference between McGahee and Smith's injuries is that the latter has resulted in nerve damage from which he can never recover. If he has "drop foot", as some have suggested, he'll never set foot on a football field as a player ever again. With McGahee, it was reconstructive knee surgery and damage to multiple ligaments, but without the nerve issue.

[Beerball]

You have a medical staff that thinks he will regain control in a way that will allow him to disrupt offenses consistently for the several years that follow

Thank you. All it takes is one team with a different view of the risk/reward. An explosive top 5 (10 for certain) pick could be just the move a team with a stable FO will make. I could see Baltimore taking a flyer on him.

[dpberr]

Read a report saying he has what they call "drop foot". It's essentially where your foot flops around when you walk due to nerve damage. I'd say 4th Round compensatory depending who is on the board. I have also read that some view him as undraftable now.

 

I have drop foot in both feet from a flu shot gone REAL bad. I wear AFOs.

 

If that's true and he's got drop foot, that's bad news. I can tell you this - with drop foot, you only run in the case of fire or zombie hoard. You're not doing it for fun. Drop foot beats the hell out of your ankles, knees and your gait overall.

Edited April 27, 2016 by dpberr

[Coach Tuesday]

Thank you.

 

But he has a loss of feeling. Your medical staff is taking a big leap. Nerves are very fickle. Round 2 seems insane to me.

[Beerball]

 

But he has a loss of feeling. Your medical staff is taking a big leap. Nerves are very fickle. Round 2 seems insane to me.

I added a bit above while you were responding. It depends on the team & their medical staff.