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Jaylon Smith - What round is he worth the risk?

KDIGGZ

By KDIGGZ
in The Stadium Wall Archives

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  1. 1. What round would you take Jaylon Smith?

    • Round 1 - players come back from bad knee injuries all the time
      1
    • Round 2 - maybe not worth a 1st but good value in Rd 2
      24
    • Round 3 - steal in round 3 for best player in draft
      45
    • Round 4 - you have 2 picks in the 4th so why not
      25
    • Round 4 - compensatory pick
      15
    • Round 5 - can't believe he's still on the board
      5
    • Round 6 - too good to be true
      7
    • Round 6 - compensatory pick
      5
    • Waste of a pick - not worth the risk
      4
    • UDFA
      1

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NoSaint Hall of Famer

NoSaint

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But he has a loss of feeling. Your medical staff is taking a big leap. Nerves are very fickle. Round 2 seems insane to me.

You see a lot of guys with high ceilings and big question marks in round 2.

 

His downside is lower but anyone you pick comes with "never going to be a regular contributor" risk, especially after day 1 - and is it really that much better if you bust on a guy and he's a special teamer for a few years instead of in the medical room?

 

It's all about the med e v a l and you and I have no idea how rocky or clean it is really. Arguing he should be pick 41 are 76 based on medical is about as close to throwing darts blindfolded as it gets here.

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CommonCents All Pro

CommonCents

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You see a lot of guys with high ceilings and big question marks in round 2.

 

His downside is lower but anyone you pick comes with "never going to be a regular contributor" risk, especially after day 1 - and is it really that much better if you bust on a guy and he's a special teamer for a few years instead of in the medical room?

 

It's all about the med e v a l and you and I have no idea how rocky or clean it is really. Arguing he should be pick 41 are 76 based on medical is about as close to throwing darts blindfolded as it gets here.

That's why I agree with the posters who said a more established front office will take the risk earlier than a team like us. They aren't going to get any blow back from it and they can prospect for gold with a late 2nd rounder. The rich get richer.

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KDIGGZ Hall of Famer

KDIGGZ

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Ask the 49ers how that Lattimore pick worked out.

I don't know them personally of course but something tells me Lattimore didn't have the heart and desire that Jaylon has. He was the leader of that defense and I think he has what it takes to overcome his injury. RB's are a dime a dozen in the NFL and you have to have the desire to make it even if you aren't injured and I don't think Lattimore had what it takes. He said himself that he didn't know why the 49ers picked a RB with 2 bad knee injuries. I'd take a chance on a high character guy like Jaylon Smith knowing that if he can't do it then nobody can

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NoSaint Hall of Famer

NoSaint

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That's why I agree with the posters who said a more established front office will take the risk earlier than a team like us. They aren't going to get any blow back from it and they can prospect for gold with a late 2nd rounder. The rich get richer.

Or they miss and get no richer

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thebandit27 Hall of Famer

thebandit27

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I don't know them personally of course but something tells me Lattimore didn't have the heart and desire that Jaylon has. He was the leader of that defense and I think he has what it takes to overcome his injury. RB's are a dime a dozen in the NFL and you have to have the desire to make it even if you aren't injured and I don't think Lattimore had what it takes. He said himself that he didn't know why the 49ers picked a RB with 2 bad knee injuries. I'd take a chance on a high character guy like Jaylon Smith knowing that if he can't do it then nobody can

 

Just FYI--Marcus Lattimore was an all-world kid with great attitude who worked his rear end off...his knee didn't hold up, and that is the ONLY reason he never made it back.

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CommonCents All Pro

CommonCents

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Or they miss and get no richer

Which happens with plenty of other 2nd round picks, being established affords them the opportunity to take an obvious swing and miss with the slim chance of Jaylon coming back to 100%. A perfect example is Kujo we are still hearing about his knees and the obvious red flags that were ignored, if/when Whaley falls flat that will be of mention for no reason other than its a low hanging fruit.

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RyanC883 All Pro

RyanC883

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I view him as a 2017 player. So, when you draft him this year you are trading that round's pick for a extra first round pick in 2017. I like round 3. If Smith regains his health, you basically have a top 10 2017 pick and our 32nd pick

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C.Biscuit97 Hall of Famer

C.Biscuit97

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I honestly feel terror for him. A meaningless game has severely changed his life. He seems like a great kid and was a great football. I know it's not a charity but I would have zero problems with the Bills picking him in the 2nd or later if they believe he can recover.

 

And this is why no fan should ever have a problem with football players getting every cent they can. Their earning potential can end on one play.

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CommonCents All Pro

CommonCents

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I honestly feel terror for him. A meaningless game has severely changed his life. He seems like a great kid and was a great football. I know it's not a charity but I would have zero problems with the Bills picking him in the 2nd or later if they believe he can recover.

 

And this is why no fan should ever have a problem with football players getting every cent they can. Their earning potential can end on one play.

He was smart and took out an insurance policy, I forget which pick he needs to drop to maximize it but I'm certain Jaylon will be hoping he falls to the third round.

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C.Biscuit97 Hall of Famer

C.Biscuit97

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He was smart and took out an insurance policy, I forget which pick he needs to drop to maximize it but I'm certain Jaylon will be hoping he falls to the third round.

That's great to hear and I hope it works out for him. He seems like a kid who would rather be playing than getting money for nothing. I'd love to see him in a Bills uni. He seems like he would grateful and not a complete turd like McGahee.
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Coach Tuesday Hall of Famer

Coach Tuesday

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I honestly feel terror for him. A meaningless game has severely changed his life. He seems like a great kid and was a great football. I know it's not a charity but I would have zero problems with the Bills picking him in the 2nd or later if they believe he can recover.

 

And this is why no fan should ever have a problem with football players getting every cent they can. Their earning potential can end on one play.

 

Wait.

 

You're on record saying that the Bills shouldn't trade up for a linebacker like Jack, but you'd be ok with them using a 2nd round pick on a severely injured linebacker?

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CommonCents All Pro

CommonCents

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That's great to hear and I hope it works out for him. He seems like a kid who would rather be playing than getting money for nothing. I'd love to see him in a Bills uni. He seems like he would grateful and not a complete turd like McGahee.

I want to say it was like the 74th pick or so? Don't quote me on that I've heard it multiple times but don't remember exactly. I'm sure I have seen it here too, hopefully someone with accurate info can chime in on it.

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dave mcbride Hall of Famer

dave mcbride

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The difference between McGahee and Smith's injuries is that the latter has resulted in nerve damage from which he can never recover. If he has "drop foot", as some have suggested, he'll never set foot on a football field as a player ever again. With McGahee, it was reconstructive knee surgery and damage to multiple ligaments, but without the nerve issue.

So you're saying it's not a good idea to take Smith high because of the risk. That take makes a lot of sense to me.

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C.Biscuit97 Hall of Famer

C.Biscuit97

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Wait.

 

You're on record saying that the Bills shouldn't trade up for a linebacker like Jack, but you'd be ok with them using a 2nd round pick on a severely injured linebacker?

I'd obviously want to draft him in the 3rd or later. All of this is depended on the team doctors. They will have information no fan will have (unless Schefter tweets it). There is a good possibly the Bills might have declared him undraftable.

 

And I won't trade up for him either. :)

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dave mcbride Hall of Famer

dave mcbride

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http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/04/26/nfl-draft-paxton-lynch-jaylon-smith

 

6. I think I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that Jaylon Smith will be drafted in the fourth round. The former Notre Dame linebacker was a probable Top 5 pick if he hadn’t been hurt, but the nerve damage accompanying the torn ligaments in his left leg clouds his recovery prognosis. Two evaluators with two different NFL clubs shared a similar organizational practice for players like Smith, i.e. premier talents with serious injuries from which they may or may not be able to recover: They take them off the board for the first three rounds. Think about it like this—what’s the first round where, if you cut the player drafted in that round, it’s not seen as a huge miss? The fourth round. Here’s a corollary: Marcus Lattimore, the former South Carolina running back with nerve damage in his dislocated knee, was drafted by the 49ers with their fourth-round compensatory pick in 2013. He was never able to play in the NFL, but the gamble the Niners took wasn’t at a giant cost.

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C.Biscuit97 Hall of Famer

C.Biscuit97

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http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/04/26/nfl-draft-paxton-lynch-jaylon-smith

 

6. I think Im going to go out on a limb and predict that Jaylon Smith will be drafted in the fourth round. The former Notre Dame linebacker was a probable Top 5 pick if he hadnt been hurt, but the nerve damage accompanying the torn ligaments in his left leg clouds his recovery prognosis. Two evaluators with two different NFL clubs shared a similar organizational practice for players like Smith, i.e. premier talents with serious injuries from which they may or may not be able to recover: They take them off the board for the first three rounds. Think about it like thiswhats the first round where, if you cut the player drafted in that round, its not seen as a huge miss? The fourth round. Heres a corollary: Marcus Lattimore, the former South Carolina running back with nerve damage in his dislocated knee, was drafted by the 49ers with their fourth-round compensatory pick in 2013. He was never able to play in the NFL, but the gamble the Niners took wasnt at a giant cost.

A fourth round lottery ticket would work for me. It is a giant risk to take him but it could be a giant payoff. Or a giant waste of a 4th.

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Rockinon Veteran

Rockinon

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Posted (edited)

It is a move a team will make in round 2. The Bills don't have the luxury to choose him before round 3. (IMO)

If they trade down.........maybe. Agree that no way he goes past RD 2. He is worth more than a 3rd RD grade. Thing is everyone will want a sure starter in the 1st. He'll slide but not nearly as far as some think.

Edited by Rockinon
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YoloinOhio Hall of Famer

YoloinOhio

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I don't know them personally of course but something tells me Lattimore didn't have the heart and desire that Jaylon has. He was the leader of that defense and I think he has what it takes to overcome his injury. RB's are a dime a dozen in the NFL and you have to have the desire to make it even if you aren't injured and I don't think Lattimore had what it takes. He said himself that he didn't know why the 49ers picked a RB with 2 bad knee injuries. I'd take a chance on a high character guy like Jaylon Smith knowing that if he can't do it then nobody can

i don't know anything about Jaylon but he seems to have a positive attitude. His brother Rod was a RB at OSU and he was a complete turd.

 

Marcus Lattimore definitely had heart and work ethic.

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