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If Mel Kieper's Bills draft picks were accurate


SJDK

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Kiper's sole qualification is started to track the draft before anyone else cared to do it. He does a good job of memorizing facts about draft eligible players, but that's it. That skill was incredibly useful in the early 90s, but now technology can instantly spit out the same things he does. ESPN continuing to feature him one weekend a year adds to the embarrassments of the network. If he knew anything, a NFL team would have paid him a lot more than ESPN does a long time ago. If you look at his early big boards, he's not even in the same ballpark as how the actual draft plays out (but good luck finding them, Kiper/ESPN scrubs the internet of them).

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I remember Mel laughed when the CJ pick came in. I want to say he gave us a low grade that year.

 

Revisiting that draft class in 2010, yikes! Almost custom made an Ed Wang jersey to go next to my Wood jersey.

 

I would have laughed too but being a Bills fan I was pissed.

Bills win all the picks. EJ would have been fine without Maroon. If EJ is truly done here, he'll eventually make his mark elsewhere.

 

:wallbash::wallbash::wallbash:

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Mayock's Bills' picks:

2010 - Spiller

2011 - Dareus

2012 - Keuchly ... Gilmore went 15 to Eagles

2013 - Tayvon Austin... Correct spot wrong team

2014 - Zack Martin @ 9. no trade for Watkins

Are we comparing apples to apples here? Are these the picks from these guys' final mocks? If so, I'm sure in a lot of instances, Kiper and Mayock would have changed their picks for the Bills based on whoever was actually available at the time. Like I'm waiting for the first person to be like "see Mayock is smart he had us taking Kuechly." Well Kuechly was already gone when the Bills picked. For the hundredth time, Mel Kiper is very good at what he does. Yes he was wrong about Jimmy Clausen. Do you know how many people on this website mocked Carolina for taking Cam Newton? And then mocked Denver for taking Von Miller over Dareus?? It's kind of a crapshoot fellas.

 

Not to mention, Kiper bases his mocks on what he's hearing around from around the league, not how good he necessarily thinks guys are going to be.

Edited by metzelaars_lives
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Bills win all the picks. EJ would have been fine without Maroon. If EJ is truly done here, he'll eventually make his mark elsewhere.

With the right system, and HUGE off season self-improvement I could see that happening, Kid has a great attitude. Wish him the best but still Tyrod is our best QB on the roster and this season hopefully he improves and becomes the solid QB we been looking for to hold us up till we find an "aaron rodgers" in the draft. drafting a QB this year wouldnt be to wise considering all the holes we need to fill for "Rex's Scheme" I also think with solid improvement and the right scheme Tyrod can get us into the playoffs if our defense starts to click. I like Robert Woods and Hogan (after finding out he had played the 2nd half of the season with a wrist injury which contributes to all his dropped passes), I still think if we got Tyrod a jets brandon marshall or Decker WR2 our offense could do some real damage. Assuming we keep Glenn cognito and add an upgrade at RT

Edited by Marty McFly
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Bills win all the picks. EJ would have been fine without Maroon. If EJ is truly done here, he'll eventually make his mark elsewhere.

 

I agree, but for different reasons. EJ hasn't panned out, and I don't believe his career trajectory would have looked all that different under different leadership (the same limitations that held him back in Hackett's/Marrone's offense were in evidence last year in Roman's system). That said, the Bills had to take a chance on a quarterback at some point, and they got their pick of the class in 2013. It's not hindsight to say that there were better picks on the board-- I think everyone knew as much on draft night in 2013-- but every team has to bet on a quarterback every once in a while until they find their guy. One could even argue that, if the Bills had done so more often in the recent past (despite Mayock and Kiper's projections), they may not have needed to reach quite so early in a bad quarterback class.

Edited by habes1280
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I remember Mel laughed when the CJ pick came in. I want to say he gave us a low grade that year.

 

Revisiting that draft class in 2010, yikes! Almost custom made an Ed Wang jersey to go next to my Wood jersey.

 

I'd pay real money for a Wang (jersey that is). How cool would it be to wear that jersey every week at the games.

 

And for the record, Kiper is an a#% clown. I do love the Kiper / McShay Frank Caliendo bit on ESPN. I laugh every time I see that youtube bit. "Todd, Todd, Todd, Todd, Todd"

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Mel is nearly perfect in his current role. He can say a lot of intelligent things about an awful lot of players. He has a good memory with a basic understanding of what actual scouts are looking for.

 

In other words, Mel is like Matt Millen and would perform about as well if ever given the chance to be a GM.

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is Mel trying to get his picks right, meaning what he thinks that particular team will do OR what HE thinks they should do?

 

What started ruining his credibility IMO is when he leaned towards teams should do what he thinks. He mocks teams for picking players outside of his rankings. If he would just stick to saying things like "Ok, I had that player lower in my rankings based on personal research and what I've heard from teams, but obviously they like what they see". Instead he interjects disgust.

 

I guess that's fine when your rankings are more right then wrong. Because Kiper is so wrong so often - he lives in the world he created. Now he's having to deal with not only ESPN bringing in others to combat him live as they laugh at him - he subjects himself to widespread criticism from competing networks, fans, media, NFL alumni and NFL teams themselves.

Edited by Triple Threat
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kiper is a hack, mayock and the dudes at nfln are much better

Much better at what? Mock drafts? Yes that is true.

 

But I find Kiper's analysis to be mostly spot on, and I really like what Mayock brings in his analysis.

 

I don't care about their mock drafts.

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like others have said, kiper can evaluate talent.

 

kiper, however, like everyone, cannot make a good mock draft.

 

when it comes time to play the name to team game he struggles and has been accused of touting players based upon sharing agents, etc.

 

still, take his analysis with a grain of salt - but its usually not wrong.

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Ha! Maybe as a Cart-boy at Wal-Mart. Maybe....

It's hilarious when a person who hasn't achieved a quarter of the success as a 25 year old try to knock them down. But I'm sure you are changing the world. :)

 

Draft "experts" have the best job in the world. They can make wild predictions and put down teams' drafts without getting fired. I give Kiper all the credit in the world but his resume to be an "expert" is laughable.

 

Mayock is probably the best but he had Gabbert over Newton and Robert Ayers (a part time starter in college) as being the best defensive player in his draft. These guys would be fired within 3 years if they actually had to do the job.

 

It's just sad that fans put so much stock into their opinions. It's entertainment but it's hardly science.

like others have said, kiper can evaluate talent.

 

kiper, however, like everyone, cannot make a good mock draft.

 

when it comes time to play the name to team game he struggles and has been accused of touting players based upon sharing agents, etc.

 

still, take his analysis with a grain of salt - but its usually not wrong.

His ability to evaluate talent isn't anything more special than people who can watch YouTube clips.

 

But he popularize this so he is a great business man.

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Nah, Kiper is average at what he does. Mike Mayock is very good at what he does.

Agreed. Love Mayock!!

 

 

Can you cite evidence that shows this to be the case?

I believe he is stating an opinion which is fine. As nobody I know can predict the future. It will be tough to cite evidence on predicting the future.

 

Would you prefer if he used IMO?

 

Do you prefer being a lawyer, English teacher or just being a Bills fan on a Bills board?

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It's hilarious when a person who hasn't achieved a quarter of the success as a 25 year old try to knock them down. But I'm sure you are changing the world. :)

...

Hey! I'm the best damn Cart-boy Wal-Mart ever had! I've been promoted to Senior Cart-Boy -got awards and stuff.. I Know Cart-boy talent when I see it!

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For the hundredth time, Mel Kiper is very good at what he does.

 

What he does is attract eyeballs for the NFL draft for nearly two months, so yes, he's excellent at that.

 

In terms of predicting talent or draft picks, he's nothing special.

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Can you cite evidence that shows this to be the case?

We've been over this. I believe that EJ was short-changed by Maroon when he told him to stop running after the knee injury in CLE, and pulling him after the JJ Watt interception in HOU. Others believe that EJ sucked the day we drafted him, sucked when he played, and sucks right now. So there you have it. No need to have this spin off into another EJ thread.

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Mel is nearly perfect in his current role. He can say a lot of intelligent things about an awful lot of players. He has a good memory with a basic understanding of what actual scouts are looking for.

 

In other words, Mel is like Matt Millen and would perform about as well if ever given the chance to be a GM.

I hope another team in AFCE gives him a chance to prove how good he is.

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