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Do the Bills still go QB in round 1?


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What? Of course he does. Drafting EJ is an example of reaching for a QB when the talent isn't there. That IMO is a bad strategy, and one we should not employ in future drafts.

 

Are we just not allowed to mention his name anymore because you were wrong and it makes you feel bad? Is that what's bothering you?

 

What are you talking about? How was I wrong about anything. I have nothing to do with what the Bills do. But cool insult "bro" Sammy wants his attention back.

 

 

Reaching for a player is only a reach if he doesn't pan out. If the Bills "reach for a QB" and he pans out, is that still a reach?

 

AKA, EJ has nothing to do with what happens from here on out.

Edited by CountDorkula
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Too early to tell.

I agree with Count that it is too early to tell

 

A couple of thoughts

 

- We need to see if TT can be durable for a entire season.....a couple of games is acceptable (and the bills need to account for that in their backup QB)

 

but

 

- if he goes down multiple times in a season......we need to reevaluate that

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What are you talking about? How was I wrong about anything. I have nothing to do with what the Bills do. But cool insult "bro" Sammy wants his attention back.

 

 

Reaching for a player is only a reach if he doesn't pan out. If the Bills "reach for a QB" and he pans out, is that still a reach?

 

AKA, EJ has nothing to do with what happens from here on out.

 

...what? Anyway, this isn't that difficult. EJ is an example of trying to select a QB early on in the draft, when there are more talented (ie., players who are more likely to hit than miss) players available. We shouldn't do that as there are better ways to use our first round pick.

 

With respect to the 2016 draft, I do not believe there will be any true first round talents available when we make our first round pick. If that's the case, then we should not use a first round pick on a QB.

 

A reach is a reach, whether it works out or not. If it works out, then great. But it is illogical given that players available in the beginning of the draft have a greater likelihood of panning out. Why draft a QB who will be available later on in the draft when you could use that pick on a player with greater talent / higher probability of success? You could always take the QB in one of the following rounds.

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I don't know what the QB class is going to look like, but if the Bills finish 8-8 or better they are likely out of range for any outstanding QB prospects that might be in the draft.

I've seen some of Connor Cook. I admit I haven't watched him a lot, but what I saw wasn't that impressive. Coupled with a 58% completion rate in college, I have to think he isn't a 1st round caliber player, though he could be drafted in the first just because QB prospects are always elevated due to the large need in the NFL.

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Given the fact that our quarter-billion (yes, billion) dollar quartet puts up about as much pressure as a feather duster, I'm making DL a priority. Unless you want to keep paying Mario $19M/year for setting the edge. Even if Mario stays, you have to be thinking about the future here. My draft needs:

 

1. OL

2. DL

3. LB

4. QB (if one is available and worth it at the pick)

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Can't answer definitely until the season is over. At this point, yes.if TT stays healthy, we make the playoffs, and he plays well throughout - I may change my mind.

I don't know what the QB class is going to look like, but if the Bills finish 8-8 or better they are likely out of range for any outstanding QB prospects that might be in the draft.

I've seen some of Connor Cook. I admit I haven't watched him a lot, but what I saw wasn't that impressive. Coupled with a 58% completion rate in college, I have to think he isn't a 1st round caliber player, though he could be drafted in the first just because QB prospects are always elevated due to the large need in the NFL.

i believe there will be a QB with a 1st round grade available at or close to the Bills pick. And they should do what they need to do to get him. The top 5 guys in the draft are not QBs. There are also teams who will draft high who won't take a QB. Edited by YoloinOhio
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...what? Anyway, this isn't that difficult. EJ is an example of trying to select a QB early on in the draft, when there are more talented (ie., players who are more likely to hit than miss) players available. We shouldn't do that as there are better ways to use our first round pick.

 

With respect to the 2016 draft, I do not believe there will be any true first round talents available when we make our first round pick. If that's the case, then we should not use a first round pick on a QB.

 

A reach is a reach, whether it works out or not. If it works out, then great. But it is illogical given that players available in the beginning of the draft have a greater likelihood of panning out. Why draft a QB who will be available later on in the draft when you could use that pick on a player with greater talent / higher probability of success? You could always take the QB in one of the following rounds.

 

 

I'm in general agreement, but your point about a reach is questionable. What is a reach? Nobody ever knows where NFL teams generally grade each player. I am certain that even among NFL teams that there are wide disparities in the grade of many players - that is, team A may grade Joe Smith very highly and Team B may grade him considerably lower. It is an oversimplification to think that there is just this list that ranks players in order from 1 to 200 and everyone agrees with it.

In addition, let's take the QB example that you used. Let's say that our beloved Bills have QB Billy Bob Bomber rated as the 40th best player in the draft. If the Bills are picking 20th and they desperately need a QB (most important position in NFL), I might argue that they should go ahead and select Mr. Bomber. If they wait until the 2nd, even if they trade up into the top of the 2nd, that guy might not be there. The argument could be made in the reverse too, so there is no clear cut answer.

Edited by OldTimer1960
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I don't see any possibility that the Bills are drafting quarterback next year in the first round. Just look at how efficient the kid has been under center. His completion percentage is only worse than Romo and Weeden as starters. 10 TD passes to only 4 INT's. So barring some major meltdown from Tyrod where he doesn't continue to perform at a high level, the Bills have their franchise QB. To boot, the Bills are not in the position to simply draft "best available player". Like most others here on the board, I would think that OL will be a team priority. I'm not sure whether DL or LB's would follow that, but the order is irrelevant. They have more needs to fill, then now drafting a QB that could possibly not have a start int he next 6-8 years. Folly is what I call it.

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I'd put linebacker as #1 priority. You need a quick linebacker with top shelf tackling skills if you're opponents are going to dink and dunk you with the quick short passes.

 

I believe NB will be playing for somebody else in 2016.

Maybe we can work a trade with philly for Alonzo..

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I'm in general agreement, but your point about a reach is questionable. What is a reach? Nobody ever knows where NFL teams generally grade each player. I am certain that even among NFL teams that there are wide disparities in the grade of many players - that is, team A may grade Joe Smith very highly and Team B may grade him considerably lower. It is an oversimplification to think that there is just this list that ranks players in order from 1 to 200 and everyone agrees with it.

In addition, let's take the QB example that you used. Let's say that our beloved Bills have QB Billy Bob Bomber rated as the 40th best player in the draft. If the Bills are picking 20th and they desperately need a QB (most important position in NFL), I might argue that they should go ahead and select Mr. Bomber. If they wait until the 2nd, even if they trade up into the top of the 2nd, that guy might not be there. The argument could be made in the reverse too, so there is no clear cut answer.

 

 

You're right that it is an oversimplification, but there is a general feel for who is going to be drafted in the first couple of rounds / who will be available much later on in the draft. As for your example, yes I think that would be an appropriate time to "reach" as the QB would no longer be available the next time the Bills are up. There are players who you can safely project as mid-round draft picks (e.g., Grayson, Petty, Hundley in the 2015 draft). Do you really want to use a coveted first round pick on them?

 

It's a question of value-add with respect to a.) the value of your draft pick, b.) the projected value of the player in question, and c.) the opportunity cost of selecting a different player projected as a true first round talent and potentially missing out on the mid-round player.

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You're right that it is an oversimplification, but there is a general feel for who is going to be drafted in the first couple of rounds / who will be available much later on in the draft. As for your example, yes I think that would be an appropriate time to "reach" as the QB would no longer be available the next time the Bills are up. There are players who you can safely project as mid-round draft picks (e.g., Grayson, Petty, Hundley in the 2015 draft). Do you really want to use a coveted first round pick on them?

 

It's a question of value-add with respect to a.) the value of your draft pick, b.) the projected value of the player in question, and c.) the opportunity cost of selecting a different player projected as a true first round talent and potentially missing out on the mid-round player.

 

The Bills did not think EJ was going to be there by their second pick in 2013. The grapevine was suggesting that Philly and Jax both had him as the top QB on their boards and were picking before us in round 2.

 

That might mean Philly and Jax played the smoke and mirrors well - but the Bills didn't want to take that chance clearly.

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8 more games is a big sample size for Tyrod. If Tyrod shows some improvment as the next 8 games play out then I don't think they will go QB unless a big time prospect falls to their pick (Which with how overdrafted the QB position can be I don't think will happen). O-line or best player avaiable will likely be the best way to go. However it's still possible Tyrod flounders in the last 8 games, so of course you have to wait and see how he plays in the second half of the season.

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So draft a QB first round, who you have to play because you drafted him so high, and sit the QB that is actually playing well? Make sense to me.

If they draft a great prospect in the 1st and can afford to let him sit while developing, that would be perfect.

 

The Bills and fans have never been patient enough to develop a QB the right way.

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So far, no. But I don't think it's a bad idea to do what the Eagles have done with taking a second round pick to be the backup in case of injury. Kolb and Foles were both picked up this way as backups to mobile QBs and both made for ok stopgap starters before getting flipped on trades.

Agreed. With Taylor's size and game I think QB is a priority. When I refer to his "game" I mean that running and the threat of him running are big parts of him being successful. Since he doesn't have the size to sustain a lot of punishment the Bills have to have another QB on the roster who can play if/when he gets dinged or badly injured. I think we can all (most of us?) agree that EJ isn't that guy. If they can get their hands on someone who might be better than TT, then that's awesome. If not, get a guy who you think can be a solid, long term backup. But get someone. Somewhere. Make it a priority, but not necessarily in round 1.

Edited by BarleyNY
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IMO, it depends on Free Agency -which comes 1st in the League year. There'll be a couple restructures, I believe, and we'll look for a fast, tall WR and -who knows, maybe Fitz will be available. He is every year and he'd be a fine backup to Tyrod.

 

Im not as down on our OL (assuming we lock up Ritchie & Glenn) as many here are, so BPA wherever we pick is the safest road to travel. Again, just my 2 sense..

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You draft a QB and give him a opportunity to learn at a slower pace. I love TT but he is not a franchise QB, good story and has played well but he is not a franchise QB

Why not? I know it's early, but there is no reason, based on how he has performed, to rule out him eventually being a franchise QB.

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I'd say it depends on 2 things.

 

1) how tyrod does the rest of the season

2) where the bills are drafting

 

At this point there doesn't appear to be a clear cut,game changing first rounder. I don't doubt they they use either a 2nd or 3rd rounder on a QB regardless of the 2 stipulations I mentioned.

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If they draft a great prospect in the 1st and can afford to let him sit while developing, that would be perfect.

 

The Bills and fans have never been patient enough to develop a QB the right way.

They won't use a first round pick for a backup QB. Look around the NFL. No one has a good back up. That's just how it is.

You draft a QB and give him a opportunity to learn at a slower pace. I love TT but he is not a franchise QB, good story and has played well but he is not a franchise QB

Based on what exactly?

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