Mike Freeman of CBS Almost Guaranteeing Alex Smith Landing in Buffalo

[mrags]

Everyone here is forgetting that Smith has had a fairly productive 1 1/2-2 years with the 49ers. Regardless if its the team or coach or what ever it may be. Some other team in need of a veteran QB will be willing to drop a draft pick or 2 on him.

 

I will guarantee he will not be cut. Some team will trade for him and that's almost certain.

 

Hopefully it's not us. I'd take him for nothing but I'd never give up a draft pick for him. He's still better than Fitz but not much so I guess I couldn't complain much because I don't actually mind Fitz that much. Still Wouldnt be giving away anything for him though.

[NickelCity]

They need to draft a QB early and start him immediately. Half the playoff teams have rookie, 1st or 2nd year QB's starting.

 

You can put me in this camp, too.

[mannc]

Everyone here is forgetting that Smith has had a fairly productive 1 1/2-2 years with the 49ers. Regardless if its the team or coach or what ever it may be. Some other team in need of a veteran QB will be willing to drop a draft pick or 2 on him.

 

I will guarantee he will not be cut. Some team will trade for him and that's almost certain.

 

Hopefully it's not us. I'd take him for nothing but I'd never give up a draft pick for him. He's still better than Fitz but not much so I guess I couldn't complain much because I don't actually mind Fitz that much. Still Wouldnt be giving away anything for him though.

Hell, if we gave up a draft pick for Tavaris Jackson, we can certainly give up a draft pick for Smith. I'd certainly give up a 4th rounder for him.

[Fan in Chicago]

Isn't Alex Smith the reincarnation of Ryan Fitzpatrick?

 

Let us see:

 

Alex Smith Lifetime: 59.3% completion, 14,280 yards, 179 yards/game, 81 TD, 63 INTs for a 1.28 TD/INT ratio. Rate of 79.1%

Alex Smith Last 3 years (his best have been the last two but I threw in one additional year to even things out:

62.7% completion, 7251 yards, 207 yards/game, 44 TD, 20 INTs for a 2.2 TD/INT ratio. Rate of ~ 90+ (I didnt have exact calcs)

 

RF Lifetime: 59.5% completion, 14,336 yards, 193.7 yards/game, 92 TD, 81 INTs for a 1.14 TD/INT ratio. Rate of 76.8%

RF Last 3 years: 60.3% completion, 10,232 yards, 227 yards/game, 71 TD, 54 INTs for a 1.31 TD/INT ratio. Rate of ~82%

 

So,:

- Alex Smith has improved over the years and his statistical best years have been the last two.

- AS is much better TD/INT than RF over past 3 years

- RF throws for 10%+ more yards/game

- AS has a better QB rating

- AS has a better completion rate over past three years

- RF throws for more TDs/game (1.57 versus 1.29) over past 3 years

 

RF's air game is much better. But AS is more conservative and has been throwing a lot less picks per TD. None of these prove that AS will give us a dynamic passing offense but he is less likely to make critical mistakes. Also, from what I have seen, he has the arm to make the sideline throws which RF lacks.

 

Not a long term solution , but I prefer AS over RF just cos he is less likely to lose games for us.

[Adam]

ALex Carder from Western Michigan looks like a good prospect in the lower rounds as does Tino Sunseri out of Pitt. Anyone who thinks we are taking a QB early and starting him, then riding him to the playoffs is out of their mind.

[C.Biscuit97]

Let us see:

 

Alex Smith Lifetime: 59.3% completion, 14,280 yards, 179 yards/game, 81 TD, 63 INTs for a 1.28 TD/INT ratio. Rate of 79.1%

Alex Smith Last 3 years (his best have been the last two but I threw in one additional year to even things out:

62.7% completion, 7251 yards, 207 yards/game, 44 TD, 20 INTs for a 2.2 TD/INT ratio. Rate of ~ 90+ (I didnt have exact calcs)

 

RF Lifetime: 59.5% completion, 14,336 yards, 193.7 yards/game, 92 TD, 81 INTs for a 1.14 TD/INT ratio. Rate of 76.8%

RF Last 3 years: 60.3% completion, 10,232 yards, 227 yards/game, 71 TD, 54 INTs for a 1.31 TD/INT ratio. Rate of ~82%

 

So,:

- Alex Smith has improved over the years and his statistical best years have been the last two.

- AS is much better TD/INT than RF over past 3 years

- RF throws for 10%+ more yards/game

- AS has a better QB rating

- AS has a better completion rate over past three years

- RF throws for more TDs/game (1.57 versus 1.29) over past 3 years

 

RF's air game is much better. But AS is more conservative and has been throwing a lot less picks per TD. None of these prove that AS will give us a dynamic passing offense but he is less likely to make critical mistakes. Also, from what I have seen, he has the arm to make the sideline throws which RF lacks.

 

Not a long term solution , but I prefer AS over RF just cos he is less likely to lose games for us.

 

Honestly, Smith would look a lot worse playing on Buffalo with one of the worst defenses in the NFL trying to carrying the team. Smith was a caretaker on a team that was built on defense and running the ball. He was Trent Dilfer, Jr. I won't hate the move if he was super cheap but I'd rather just start a rookie. The gap between Fitz and Smith is a lot smaller than people want to admit. We just hate fitz because he's on the Bills. Smith would have been run out of town here as well if he was on the team.

[benderbender]

Alex Smith = Trent Edwards

[C.Biscuit97]

Alex Smith = Trent Edwards

 

Honestly, this isn't too far off. There's a small chance the light went on late for Smith, but I think Harbaugh just made him presentable. He was flat out terrible before him.

[Fan in Chicago]

Smith would have been run out of town here as well if he was on the team.

Maybe. I think fans' expectations keep adjusting upwards. When Fitz replaced TrentEdwards, this board (including me) were very happy. “he has guts”, “gun slinger” got people excited. I was happier primarily because he was willing to attempt more throws, read defenses better and not telegraph the next play. Yet, here we are waiting to run him out of town. So, I agree that if Smith was our QB, we would have found his game very conservative and not strong enough to win the big battles. However, I have faith that the next coaching staff will use the available players better and our D will take a big leap upwards with the addition of a couple of LBs. So, in effect we should have mre success with Smith at the helm. This move, should we make it, should not prevent us from drafting the long term answer in this draft or the next. But it buys us time.

 

Alex Smith = Trent Edwards

 

Care to support with some data ?

[C.Biscuit97]

Maybe. I think fans' expectations keep adjusting upwards. When Fitz replaced TrentEdwards, this board (including me) were very happy. “he has guts”, “gun slinger” got people excited. I was happier primarily because he was willing to attempt more throws, read defenses better and not telegraph the next play. Yet, here we are waiting to run him out of town. So, I agree that if Smith was our QB, we would have found his game very conservative and not strong enough to win the big battles. However, I have faith that the next coaching staff will use the available players better and our D will take a big leap upwards with the addition of a couple of LBs. So, in effect we should have mre success with Smith at the helm. This move, should we make it, should not prevent us from drafting the long term answer in this draft or the next. But it buys us time.

 

 

 

Care to support with some data ?

 

Good points but I think Gailey got the absolute most out of Fitz and probably would have gotten the most out of Smith. Gailey deserved to be fired for settling for Fitz in the 1st place, but he made Fitz a decently productive NFL player which is a minor miracle. I think people are barking up the wrong tree if they think Smith is anything more than just a game manager who is margainly better than Fitz.

[Fan in San Diego]

 

Thanks for posting this. I would be happy to have Smith on our team. He has a higher QB rating than Kaepernick

[truth on hold]

 

 

Honestly, Smith would look a lot worse playing on Buffalo with one of the worst defenses in the NFL trying to carrying the team. Smith was a caretaker on a team that was built on defense and running the ball. He was Trent Dilfer, Jr. I won't hate the move if he was super cheap but I'd rather just start a rookie. The gap between Fitz and Smith is a lot smaller than people want to admit. We just hate fitz because he's on the Bills. Smith would have been run out of town here as well if he was on the team.

9ers as a team stunk when he came into the league, that's why they had #1 overall pick. And singletary was not a good coach. When harbaugh arrived AS game got a lot better and his record as starter is outstanding. Put fitz in that same situation with harbaugh and I have doubts 9ers are any better than .500.

Edited January 3, 2013 by Joe_the_6_pack

[Adam]

Good points but I think Gailey got the absolute most out of Fitz and probably would have gotten the most out of Smith. Gailey deserved to be fired for settling for Fitz in the 1st place, but he made Fitz a decently productive NFL player which is a minor miracle. I think people are barking up the wrong tree if they think Smith is anything more than just a game manager who is margainly better than Fitz.

So, you really think Nix should be fired, for settling for Fitz.........

Edited January 3, 2013 by Adam

[eball]

Honestly, this isn't too far off. There's a small chance the light went on late for Smith, but I think Harbaugh just made him presentable. He was flat out terrible before him.

 

Disclaimer: I am NOT promoting Alex Smith

 

That said, you do know AS had to go through three different OCs and systems in three years, or something like that, right? Lots of young QBs fail under those circumstances; the QBs who succeed tend to either stay around long enough to finally "get it" or they are put into stable organizations from the start and maintain some consistency.

[Marv's Neighbor]

GR reported earlier today (apparently via Ian Rapoport) that the Bills contingent floated the idea of Alex Smith to Ken Whisenhunt at his interview. CBS must be running with this report.

If that's the way we run interviews we're screwed!

 

You interview to find out what they can do for you NOT so much what you can do for them. Why would we ever "float" a specific player(s) to a candidate especially one that's not even on our roster?

[ALF]

If the bills take A. Smith , hope they don't give more then a 3 rd pick

[BaaadThingsMan]

NFW...he couldn't throw it ten yards in the wind at the Ralph

[Maury Ballstein]

ALex Carder from Western Michigan looks like a good prospect in the lower rounds as does Tino Sunseri out of Pitt. Anyone who thinks we are taking a QB early and starting him, then riding him to the playoffs is out of their mind.

 

Colts skins Seahawks 49ers are way out of their minds then

 

Took ponder a Soph season to get in, Dalton's 2-2. Your thinking is old school IMO. Seems like a trend

Edited January 3, 2013 by Ryan L Billz

[Adam]

Colts skins Seahawks are way out of their minds then

Yeah, ok. This draft will be just like the last draft............That will get us far!

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

If that's the way we run interviews we're screwed!

 

You interview to find out what they can do for you NOT so much what you can do for them. Why would we ever "float" a specific player(s) to a candidate especially one that's not even on our roster?

"We're really considering making a push for Alex Smith. What do you think of him? Can you build an offense around him? Can you win with him?"

 

You really don't see the value in that?

[Adam]

"We're really considering making a push for Alex Smith. What do you think of him? Can you build an offense around him? Can you win with him?"

 

You really don't see the value in that?

If Tony Romo was being released, I'd go all out to get him. I think he could do great things behind our line, particularly if we upgrade WR and TE. He is in a terribly dysfuncational setting, right now

[San Jose Bills Fan]

How can we know what quarterback to look for when we don't have a coach, to know what type of offense we will have?

 

ALex Carder from Western Michigan looks like a good prospect in the lower rounds as does Tino Sunseri out of Pitt. Anyone who thinks we are taking a QB early and starting him, then riding him to the playoffs is out of their mind.

 

Why are you talking about quarterback prospects when we don't even have a head coach?

 

Seriously though, if you read through some of these threads or even just think about it a bit, you can figure out the answer to your question.

[Formerly Allan in MD]

With the bonus he's owed, he may come cheaper than he otherwise would. Upgrades are upgrades. This team should go after any that are available and reasonably priced.

[Billsguy]

Alex Smith may not exactly be the perfect melding of Montana, Marino, and Elway, but to compare him, in ANY way, to Fitzpatrick is just stupid.

 

He is probably the best QB that could realistically be added to the Bills for next season.

 

Fitzpatrick has a career QB rating of 76.8 and has thrown for 14336 yards and 92 TD's.

Alex Smith has a career QB rating of 79.1 and has thrown for 14280 yards and 81 TD's.

 

Smith has played on a better team so you could make an argument that Fitz is better because he has performed about the same as Smith with an inferior team. It is just plain STUPID not to compare them.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

 

 

agreed. hes a solid vet. has good tools (have to, to be drafted that high), and has learned not to make mistakes. we could do far worse as our "hold the seat" guy.

 

that said, without a HC, this rumor is nothing more than a rumor.

 

I don't even think qualifies as a rumor. See I can do it too. Tebow will end up in buffalo guaranteed, I mean Vick, or was it Brady Quinn, nope sorry Matt Flynn, or was it Graham Harrell?

[beerme1]

I don't even think qualifies as a rumor. See I can do it too. Tebow will end up in buffalo guaranteed, I mean Vick, or was it Brady Quinn, nope sorry Matt Flynn, or was it Graham Harrell?

 

It was Tarvaris Jackson and that was no rumor!

Edited January 4, 2013 by beerme1

[Hazed and Amuzed]

 

 

Fitzpatrick has a career QB rating of 76.8 and has thrown for 14336 yards and 92 TD's.

Alex Smith has a career QB rating of 79.1 and has thrown for 14280 yards and 81 TD's.

 

Smith has played on a better team so you could make an argument that Fitz is better because he has performed about the same as Smith with an inferior team. It is just plain STUPID not to compare them.

 

Ummm yeah, you can also make the argument that Fitz and the Bills were playing in a pass happy offense that played from behind on a regular basis. I'm sure that didn't account for any of those numbers.

[Nitro]

Smith would be a temporary fix while the drafted QB of the future gets acclimated. It hase been proven that rushing guys that are not ready is disasterous to them and their careers.

[machine gun kelly]

If it happens, I like it. Smith's stas are skewed having several bad coaches and different coordinators. When having a running game, and a line which we have he played very well his last two years. Did you see how well he played against new orleans and even the giants in the playlets last year.

 

As far as whiz, he was a winning coach with a QB in Warner and not so much without one. I don't know if I'm sold on him.

[RealityCheck]

Fitzpatrick has a career QB rating of 76.8 and has thrown for 14336 yards and 92 TD's.

Alex Smith has a career QB rating of 79.1 and has thrown for 14280 yards and 81 TD's.

 

Smith has played on a better team so you could make an argument that Fitz is better because he has performed about the same as Smith with an inferior team. It is just plain STUPID not to compare them.

This isn't baseball. Having watched both QBs play in the past 2 years tells me all I need to know. BTW, tell us how their stats compare over the last 2 years. Better yet, compare their stats in the playoffs for the past 2 years.

[BobChalmers]

Fitzpatrick has a career QB rating of 76.8 and has thrown for 14336 yards and 92 TD's.

Alex Smith has a career QB rating of 79.1 and has thrown for 14280 yards and 81 TD's.

 

Smith has played on a better team so you could make an argument that Fitz is better because he has performed about the same as Smith with an inferior team. It is just plain STUPID not to compare them.

 

Yeah - and did you see that 66-yard bomb Fitz threw to Spiller last week? What an arm he has!!! Aren't stats awesome?

 

Smith really struggled for a long time with bad offensive situations, so his career rating isn't just better than Fitz, it's climbing - Fitz is showing no improvement at all, fair enough? No Smith isn't great - he's just significantly better than Fitz.

 

And yeah - I'd take Romo in a flash over either of them.

Edited January 4, 2013 by BobChalmers

[Fan in Chicago]

This isn't baseball. Having watched both QBs play in the past 2 years tells me all I need to know. BTW, tell us how their stats compare over the last 2 years. Better yet, compare their stats in the playoffs for the past 2 years.

 

I posted those stats a.couple of pages back. Gailey helped Fitz to his best yards/game and TDs per season. But his td/int ratio and QB rating has stayed close to his career averages. Which gives credence to the theory that 'Fitz will be Fitz'. But Smith improved and posted his best performances in the last two seasons

[RogerNapalm]

Didn't Nix say yesterday that they were drafting somoen, and probably bringing in a FA also?

The only person having a worse New year then Chan has to be Fitz right now....

 

Fitz has only himself to blame.

[rex]

This isn't baseball. Having watched both QBs play in the past 2 years tells me all I need to know. BTW, tell us how their stats compare over the last 2 years. Better yet, compare their stats in the playoffs for the past 2 years.

 

from post #151 in the thread

 

Part of Smith's appeal to Buffalo's FO is his game management and ability to limit mistakes. By comparison, the last two seasons saw Fitzpatrick in 32 games with passer ratings of 79 and 83, 48 touchdowns, 39 INT's, and 10 fumbles with completion %'s of 62 and 60. Over Smith's last 26 games (16 last year, 10 this year, playoffs not included) he has thrown for 30 touchdowns, 10 INT's, and 8 fumbles. His passer rating last year was over 90.7, and through 10 games this year was 104.1 -- at the time he was 3rd in the league behind only Aaron Rodgers and RGIII. His completion % this season was also over 70%. Smith is the first QB since 2003 to take SF to a playoff game, one in which they hung with and ultimately beat a very high powered Saints team. The Bills honestly think this guy can win them some games within their offensive structure - play to the run, manage the game from the QB position, and limit mistakes... while still drafting a QB.

 

Edited January 4, 2013 by rex

[mannc]

Everyone here is forgetting that Smith has had a fairly productive 1 1/2-2 years with the 49ers. Regardless if its the team or coach or what ever it may be. Some other team in need of a veteran QB will be willing to drop a draft pick or 2 on him.

 

I will guarantee he will not be cut. Some team will trade for him and that's almost certain.

 

I bet the Jets will take a run at him. I think he would do well there.

[RealityCheck]

I posted those stats a.couple of pages back. Gailey helped Fitz to his best yards/game and TDs per season. But his td/int ratio and QB rating has stayed close to his career averages. Which gives credence to the theory that 'Fitz will be Fitz'. But Smith improved and posted his best performances in the last two seasons

Thanks for having posted that. I think it was WEO also who posted, perhaps months ago, that Fitz will always regress to the mean regardless of how well he plays in short bursts. His mechanics are pure garbage and he gets too greedy on third down when all he has to do is dump it off underneath for an easy conversion.

[Fan in San Diego]

I bet the Jets will take a run at him. I think he would do well there.

 

Not if Rex's new tattoo is any indicator.