Drafting a Quarter back.

[Nitro]

Premium round (1st thru 3rd) draft picks. 2005 - Charlie frye, Andrew Walter, David Greene. 2006- Vince Young, Mat Leinhart, Kellen CLemens, Charile Whitehurst, Bradie Croyle. 2007 - JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, John Beck, Drew Stanton, Trent Edwards. 2008 - Brian Bohm, Chad Henne, Kevin O'Connell. 2009- Pat White. 2010 - Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy. Drafting a franchise QB is a minefield. Misses are greater than hits. The Bills, unfortunately, are stuck with a 7th rounder in Fitzpatrick. The prospects of landing a quality and difference making QB are remote. On average there are 2 that meet this standard. Unless management has a change in philospohy ala Washington and making a big trade in the draft, they will be chasing aftere ghosts in trying to get a franchise QB.

[billsfan_34]

Your right it is hit and miss, however your post lacks subjectivity.......wheres the other qbs that are doing good.I.E Andy Dalton. Joe Flacco, Russel Wilson etc....

[Nasty]

I would rather be chasing ghosts and give me some kind of hope other than placing all my hope in Fitz. I like Fitz but he is no franchise QB, he would be a great mentor and teacher for our QB of the future. Not saying we have to trade our draft away but we have too much talent on this team now and they just need a leader they can believe in. You can tell when they are on the field that they aren't playing all out for Fitz and it is sad, but I think Fitz plateaued and we have nobody on the bench to step in with any future on the team. I say no matter what we draft the best QB available this year where we pick. The only way I would trade up would be to use this draft and this draft only to move up, not giving away any of our future first rounders. Look at what the Dolphins got at 8, they got Tannehill and he was questioned when he was chosen but he proved critic wrong I think, also look at the Vickings I think they got ponder early before us last year and he is a very productive starter with an upside, that is something we don't have.

[NoSaint]

3 certainly isnt premium.

2 is worthy of debate I guess. Atleast until pick 35-40ish.

[BuffalothruMyVeins]

also look at the Vickings...

 

Are you talking about the Eagles?

[Captain Hindsight]

Clausen could be had in a trade.

[Canadian Bills Fan]

Clausen could be had in a trade.

 

Not worth it.

 

There is a reason why he fell so far in the draft and also why the Panthers drafted Newton instead of handing the reigns to Clausen.

 

CBF

[HeHateMe]

You won't get a Franchise QB until you draft one... teams don't trade them unless there is an injury uncertainty.

[Hazed and Amuzed]

You won't get a Franchise QB until you draft one... teams don't trade them unless there is an injury uncertainty.

ehh it happens sometimes though. Matt Schaub is an example.

[Billsrhody]

You conveniently left out half of the QBs who are starting in the NFL who were drafted in rounds 1-3 over the past decade.

[Endless Ike]

If you're serious about drafting a QB it has to be in the first round...Obviously there are no hard and fast rules, but as hard as it is to find a starting QB its that much harder to find one outside the 1st round.

[BuffBill]

Your right it is hit and miss, however your post lacks subjectivity.......wheres the other qbs that are doing good.I.E Andy Dalton. Joe Flacco, Russel Wilson etc....

Alot of people make posts on here and only include the info that makes them look smart? You could make a post and list just the QBs that have turned out to be successes and say it always works too. You just happened to leave Aaron Rodgers, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Sam Bradford, Andy Dalton, Jake Locker, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Kevin Kolb, Jay Cutler and Alex Smith just to name some of them that were also drafted in the first 3 rounds in the same time frame, and most of these have taken their team to the playoffs at least once. Bottom line, if you don't try, you will never get the franchise QB that you need to win. Edited October 26, 2012 by BuffBill

[Billsrhody]

I decided to do a little research and look at every QB drafted in the first round over the last 15 years (43 in total). I broke them into four categories in order to evaluate them (Great, Above Average, Below Average, Bust). You can check out how I ranked them below. I used my best guess on the guys that are less than 3 years out but I tried to do it as objectively as possible.

 

This is what I came up with overall:

 

16.3% great

30.2% above average

30.2% below average

23.3% bust

 

If you look at just QBs drafted in the top 10 (26 in total):

 

19.2% great

30.8% above average

26.9% below average

23.1% bust

 

So essentially it looks like you have pretty much exactly a 50% chance of getting something good out of drafting a QB in the top 10. Surprisingly, the odds dont drop off too much for the entire first round (46.5%). The Bills are 0/1 in the past 15 years on drafting guys in the first round, they really haven't taken too many chances. Odds are the next one will work out, right?

 

The potential first round picks in this years draft are:

 

M Barkely (USC)

G Smith (WV)

T Wilson (ARK)

L Jones (OU)

 

Gotta get one of the first 2 in my option.. here's to hoping we do.

 

 

Here's my research:

 

QBs Drafted

 

1998 - P Manning (1), R Leaf (2)

1999 - T Couch (1), D McNabb (2), Ak Smith (3), D Culpepper (11), C McNown (12)

2000 - C Pennington (18)

2001 - M Vick (1)

2002 - D Carr (1), J Harrington (3), P Ramsey (32)

2003 - C Palmer (1), B Leftwich (7), K Boller (19) , R Grossman (22)

2004 - E Manning (1), P Rivers (4), B Roethlisberger (11), JP Losman (22)

2005 - A Smith (1), A Rodgers (24), J Campbell (25)

2006 - V Young (3), M Leinart (10), J Cutler (11)

2007 - J Russell (1), B Quinn (22)

2008 - M Ryan (3), J Flacco (18)

2009 - M Stafford (1), M Sanchez (5), J Freeman (17)

2010 - S Bradford (1), T Tebow (25)

2011 - C Newton (1), J Locker (8), B Gabbert (10), C Ponder (12)

2012 - A Luck (1), R Griffin (2), R Tannehill (8), B Weeden (22)

 

Great (7)

P Manning, E Manning, P Rivers, B Roethlisberger, A Rodgers, M Ryan, A Luck

 

Above Average (13)

D McNabb, D Culpepper, C Pennington, M Vick, C Palmer, A Smith, J Cutler, J Flacco, M Stafford, C Newton, J Locker, C Ponder, R Griffin

 

Below Average (13)

D Carr, B Leftwich, R Grossman, J Campbell, V Young, B Quinn, M Sanchez, J Freeman, S Bradford, T Tebow, B Gabbert, R Tannehill, B Weeden

 

Bust (10)

R Leaf, T Couch, Ak Smith, C McNown, J Harrington, P Ramsey, K Boller, JP Losman, M Leinart, J Russell

[Rubes]

Sounds like a reasonable analysis, although I think you'll see a bit of disagreement with your subjective categorizations. I would have liked to see a fifth category, "Average", since there are a number of guys you put in "Above Average" that I think are generous, such as Culpepper, Pennington, Locker, and Ponder.

 

But yeah, a 50% hit rate isn't that bad, all things considered. Part of it also has to do with guys who were drafted in the first round who probably shouldn't have been (Losman, Tebow, etc).

[FanofFredJackson]

I pity anyone who gets drafted to the inept Buffalose Bill's organization.

[Billsrhody]

Yea you're probably right. I just wanted to have a clear split one way or another. I think Culpepper and Pennington are closer to above average than they are to below average. They were good starters in the league for multiple years. With the new guys I just used what we've seen so far but I agree that there isn't much evidence to support either way.

 

I think no matter what.. we definitely need to spend a first round pick on a QB this year.

[Nitro]

I could have included all the QBs that are successful but the point was here are a bunch of fellows who were thought of being QBs of the future. I want the Bills to draft a better than average QB. Last year was the best chance to land a quality QB for the future. I was hoping they would land Ponder. This next draft is a must to get new talent under center.

[dutmost]

Lots of names missing but you definitely can't forget when the Bills step out in the 1st round and trade up for JP Losman..

[Canadian Bills Fan]

Lots of names missing but you definitely can't forget when the Bills step out in the 1st round and trade up for JP Losman..

 

I liked the move at the time. We needed a franchise QB and he seemed to fit the requirements to be sucessful in Buffalo.

 

Sadly, I think that trade has served as a reminder to the Bills FO why you dont trade up to draft a QB

 

CBF

Edited October 26, 2012 by Canadian_Bills_Fan

[drinkTHEkoolaid]

You conveniently left out half of the QBs who are starting in the NFL who were drafted in rounds 1-3 over the past decade.

 

This.

 

The OP is highly misleading

 

You also need to remember Nearly ALL franchise QBs were very highly drafted. It's very rare and the exception to find one late in the draft

 

Gotta do your homework and roll the dice and hope you pick correctly

[MDH]

It's tough to rate some of these guys in just those categories. Just starting on a team that does well doesn't make a guy "above average." I guarantee you if Alex Smith were drafted by the Bills he'd be sitting on that "bust" list. A good team around him has helped him come around to what I'd call average. It's the same place I'd put Pennington. I'd say a guy like D Carr would be "below average" if he were drafted in the 20s but as the #1 overall pick - bust.

 

Also, I think you're trying to rate guys too early. I wouldn't include anybody from the last two drafts on that list just yet as you're just guessing particularly in regards to this year's class.

 

Anyway, my point is that this is a difficult exercise to get consensus on but I appreciate the time and effort you put into this and it's a good topic for discussion.

[markgbe]

yeah i think there are a few in above average who could be just 'average'

 

i'm not sure yet about some of the below averages.... S Bradford needs a supporting cast still IMO and gabbert, tannehill, weeden, too early to tell.

Edited October 26, 2012 by markgbe

[John from Riverside]

I have always been finding ways NOT to draft a QB in the 1st in the past......that time is done

 

but please for the love of christ.....if we are going to really attempt to draft a franchise QB........make sure he has a GOOD ARM

 

Give me a QB that can make all the throws.....not some "well if we fix his mechanics he will become better" guy....

[MikeSpeed]

Trade back into the first round and draft 2 QB's next year to increase our chances!

[Maddog69]

Well, I know for a fact that you have a 0% chance of getting a good QB if you never draft one.

We need a franchise QB. We should do whatever we need to in order to get one of the top QB prospects in this years' draft.

[papazoid]

i did a little research too......

 

of the last 20 super bowl winning QB's.....90% were FRANCHISE QB's

 

you just keep drafting or aquiring QB's via trades & free agency until you hit on one.....

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

I did some research a few months back and found that since 1995 when Kelly retired, the Bill's have tried 9 different starting QB's, that may sound like alot, however the average for all teams was 6.7. At the bootm you had Indy NE, and Green Bay with two , but there were many teams who had as many as ten. There were a number of teams with ten that you'd consider well run clubs, so having a good or bad front office has little to do with finding that guy. (you could view that as a good point in Buffalos future quest) I don't have the numbers in front of me right now, but I recall Baltimore had a fairly high number of QB's and many people would consider Ozzie Newsome to be one of the better GM's Another one up there were the Giants until they got Eli.

 

I'm certain that's a big reason why the Bill's stuck with Fitz, behind closed doors did they ever think he'd be on the great list, no probably not, maybe were hoping he'd be in the above average list. But they stuck with him as they knew the odds of finding a better alternative were not very high.

 

As far as the data goes, I probably would have created a fifth catagory called potentially higher than average and would have thrown RG III, Luck, & Tannehill in there. More than likely out of the what was is eight rookie or second year starters this year, two may be considered great in five years,, two will likely be out of football, and the rest will be on their second or third team, sometimes doing better for awhile (see Fitz) then regressing again once other teams figure out how they fit with the new teams offense and how you now stop him again.

 

It all goes back to my overall concern, there are 32 teams in the league and around 10 really goot QB's!

[MikeSpeed]

i did a little research too......

 

of the last 20 super bowl winning QB's.....90% were FRANCHISE QB's

 

you just keep drafting or aquiring QB's via trades & free agency until you hit on one.....

And even after you find one you should keep looking.

[Alphadawg7]

Sounds like a reasonable analysis, although I think you'll see a bit of disagreement with your subjective categorizations. I would have liked to see a fifth category, "Average", since there are a number of guys you put in "Above Average" that I think are generous, such as Culpepper, Pennington, Locker, and Ponder.

 

But yeah, a 50% hit rate isn't that bad, all things considered. Part of it also has to do with guys who were drafted in the first round who probably shouldn't have been (Losman, Tebow, etc).

 

While I agree there should be another category for average, I disagree that culpepper and Pennington shouldn't be above average. Penningtong was a very under rated QB and Culpepper won an MVP and was considered great until he blew his knee out and lost the versatility that made him great. So I think both belong in the above average QB category.

 

Same for Alex Smith as someone else has pointed out he doesn't belong there because his team is great and I disagree. His team is essentially the same team before he really stepped it up. The biggest difference was a new coach who knew how to develop him finally and help him turn his career around. I mean, what if his coach had been Harbaugh since his rookie season instead a rotating carousel of head coaches and OCs just about every year prior to Harbaugh? Smith is definitely an above average QB in the NFL right now and no way to know how much the terrible coaching and constant changing OCs held him back unless he goes to another team.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

I just looked at the last twenty winners and it was made up of twelve unique teams, so if you keep drafting and changing guys because the last guy didn't work out, you'll never get anywhere. So it's a great idea if you're one of the twelve teams who won, but not so good for the other twenty in my opinion. If you look at it, that's the road the Bill's have taken actually, see my post above, nine different QB's, so how's that worked out?

 

i did a little research too......

 

of the last 20 super bowl winning QB's.....90% were FRANCHISE QB's

 

you just keep drafting or aquiring QB's via trades & free agency until you hit on one.....

[Boludo]

I also did some research, and here are the results of my studies:

 

Percentage of Demographic that Highly Values an Elite Quarterback

 

Winning NFL Franchises - 100%

Average NFL Fans - 90%

Buffalo Bills Fans - 50%

Bills Management - 0%

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Let's see how he does for a couple of years before calling him great. So far this year, isn't looking nearly as good as last season.

 

Same for Alex Smith as someone else has pointed out he doesn't belong there because his team is great and I disagree. His team is essentially the same team before he really stepped it up.

 

Totally not true, just like the majority of the teams in the league, they haven't had any luck in finding one. They've tried many different guys, none have worked out, just like many other teams, It has nothing to do wit hBill's management being worse than any other teams.

 

I also did some research, and here are the results of my studies:

 

Percentage of Demographic that Highly Values an Elite Quarterback

 

Winning NFL Franchises - 100%

Average NFL Fans - 90%

Buffalo Bills Fans - 50%

Bills Management - 0%

[BillsVet]

Totally not true, just like the majority of the teams in the league, they haven't had any luck in finding one. They've tried many different guys, none have worked out, just like many other teams, It has nothing to do wit hBill's management being worse than any other teams.

 

Going with other teams' castoffs isn't what I'd call trying. They haven't selected a QB outside of a 7th rounder in 3 seasons and expect the position to get better picking up free agents? How many decent QB's come up on the UFA market anyway?

[1B4IDie]

What is the winning percentage of teams that draft a QB in the First round to the winning percentage of teams that have never drafted a QB with their first pick in the first round in the history of their ****ty franchise because they constantly feed **** sandwiches to their fans?

[Billsrhody]

Hear what you guys are saying about there being an average category.. although I think you pull about an equal number of guys from both the above average pool and the below average pool so that it wouldn't really make a difference. I made sure I distributed the recent rookies pretty evenly too so I wasn't too optimistic on all of them.

 

If you get a "great" QB 16% of the time, I would almost spend every first round pick on a QB until I was sure I had one.

[ReturnoftheBuffaloBeast23]

I decided to do a little research and look at every QB drafted in the first round over the last 15 years (43 in total). I broke them into four categories in order to evaluate them (Great, Above Average, Below Average, Bust). You can check out how I ranked them below. I used my best guess on the guys that are less than 3 years out but I tried to do it as objectively as possible.

 

This is what I came up with overall:

 

16.3% great

30.2% above average

30.2% below average

23.3% bust

 

If you look at just QBs drafted in the top 10 (26 in total):

 

19.2% great

30.8% above average

26.9% below average

23.1% bust

 

So essentially it looks like you have pretty much exactly a 50% chance of getting something good out of drafting a QB in the top 10. Surprisingly, the odds dont drop off too much for the entire first round (46.5%). The Bills are 0/1 in the past 15 years on drafting guys in the first round, they really haven't taken too many chances. Odds are the next one will work out, right?

 

The potential first round picks in this years draft are:

 

M Barkely (USC)

G Smith (WV)

T Wilson (ARK)

L Jones (OU)

 

Gotta get one of the first 2 in my option.. here's to hoping we do.

 

 

Here's my research:

 

QBs Drafted

 

1998 - P Manning (1), R Leaf (2)

1999 - T Couch (1), D McNabb (2), Ak Smith (3), D Culpepper (11), C McNown (12)

2000 - C Pennington (18)

2001 - M Vick (1)

2002 - D Carr (1), J Harrington (3), P Ramsey (32)

2003 - C Palmer (1), B Leftwich (7), K Boller (19) , R Grossman (22)

2004 - E Manning (1), P Rivers (4), B Roethlisberger (11), JP Losman (22)

2005 - A Smith (1), A Rodgers (24), J Campbell (25)

2006 - V Young (3), M Leinart (10), J Cutler (11)

2007 - J Russell (1), B Quinn (22)

2008 - M Ryan (3), J Flacco (18)

2009 - M Stafford (1), M Sanchez (5), J Freeman (17)

2010 - S Bradford (1), T Tebow (25)

2011 - C Newton (1), J Locker (8), B Gabbert (10), C Ponder (12)

2012 - A Luck (1), R Griffin (2), R Tannehill (8), B Weeden (22)

 

Great (7)

P Manning, E Manning, P Rivers, B Roethlisberger, A Rodgers, M Ryan, A Luck

 

Above Average (13)

D McNabb, D Culpepper, C Pennington, M Vick, C Palmer, A Smith, J Cutler, J Flacco, M Stafford, C Newton, J Locker, C Ponder, R Griffin

 

Below Average (13)

D Carr, B Leftwich, R Grossman, J Campbell, V Young, B Quinn, M Sanchez, J Freeman, S Bradford, T Tebow, B Gabbert, R Tannehill, B Weeden

 

Bust (10)

R Leaf, T Couch, Ak Smith, C McNown, J Harrington, P Ramsey, K Boller, JP Losman, M Leinart, J Russell

 

I agree with the majority of this but Bradford is a above average QB the team around him is terrible, I wish we had him. But like other posters said this means nothing unless you try and we are scared to try to draft a QB. I always get pi**ed by the 2004 draft we were so close but yet so far. If we would have lost one game we coulda had Rapethlisberger and maybe a super bowl. But the luck of the Bills gave us the incompetent JP Loserman. *shrugs*.. The only one i'd draft is Geno and im reluctant on him. USC qbs never fair well I have no idea who T.Wilson is and Laudry Jones reminds me of Colt McCoy.

Edited October 26, 2012 by ReturnoftheBuffaloBeast23

[Mr. WEO]

Great (7)

P Manning, E Manning, P Rivers, B Roethlisberger, A Rodgers, M Ryan, A Luck

 

Above Average (13)

D McNabb, D Culpepper, C Pennington, M Vick, C Palmer, A Smith, J Cutler, J Flacco, M Stafford, C Newton, J Locker, C Ponder, R Griffin

 

Below Average (13)

D Carr, B Leftwich, R Grossman, J Campbell, V Young, B Quinn, M Sanchez, J Freeman, S Bradford, T Tebow, B Gabbert, R Tannehill, B Weeden

 

Bust (10)

R Leaf, T Couch, Ak Smith, C McNown, J Harrington, P Ramsey, K Boller, JP Losman, M Leinart, J Russell

 

Someone else posted this same info last year.

 

Anyway, Luck is already "great"?? Wow! Poor RG3--already only "above average"!

 

And Ryan, who has a grand total of zero playoff games is "great" while McNabb, who won 10 (playing in a competitive division) and played in 5 NFCC games and a SB is "above average"? ok.

 

And didn't "above average" Ponder and his Vikes just get their dicks handed to them, at home, by "below average" Freeman and the Bucs last nite?

[shrader]

Well, I know for a fact that you have a 0% chance of getting a good QB if you never draft one.

We need a franchise QB. We should do whatever we need to in order to get one of the top QB prospects in this years' draft.

 

The Saints would beg to differ. That's one hell of an extreme case though, especially since it does look like the league definitely locks up these elite QBs well ahead of time.

 

And speaking of Brees, there's another level of subjectivity of this type of look. Being the first pick of the 2nd round, he may as well have been a first rounder. In fact, he went 32nd overall in 2001 and Ramsey went 32nd overall the next year. Ramsey winds up being counted here since Houston was added to the league that year bumping up the number of teams to 32.

 

It's obviously subjective, but I'd be curious to see how many QBs went in the top 5 or 10 picks of the second round over that time.

[DC Grid]

One thing that stands out in a good way is that the success rate seems to be improving. The past two years we've seen 3 arguably guaranteed franchise QBs taken (Cam, Luck, RG3) Two very possible franchise QBs (Ponder, Tannehill) and Two potentially serviceable QBs (Weeden and Gabbert). I know Gabbert had a horrible first year, but this year he has showed a lot more promise. In all I don't think any of the teams, save the Browns, regret their first round QB picks over the past 2 years....and part of the Browns regret is that they will likely be drafting high enough this year to grab a true franchise QB.

 

That doesn't mean you should always take a QB in the first round, but if it is a guy that has a consensus first round grade there seems to be some strong indicators that his selection will be a great choice.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

I decided to do a little research and look at every QB drafted in the first round over the last 15 years (43 in total). I broke them into four categories in order to evaluate them (Great, Above Average, Below Average, Bust). You can check out how I ranked them below. I used my best guess on the guys that are less than 3 years out but I tried to do it as objectively as possible.

 

This is what I came up with overall:

 

16.3% great

30.2% above average

30.2% below average

23.3% bust

 

If you look at just QBs drafted in the top 10 (26 in total):

 

19.2% great

30.8% above average

26.9% below average

23.1% bust

 

So essentially it looks like you have pretty much exactly a 50% chance of getting something good out of drafting a QB in the top 10. Surprisingly, the odds dont drop off too much for the entire first round (46.5%). The Bills are 0/1 in the past 15 years on drafting guys in the first round, they really haven't taken too many chances. Odds are the next one will work out, right?

 

The potential first round picks in this years draft are:

 

M Barkely (USC)

G Smith (WV)

T Wilson (ARK)

L Jones (OU)

 

Gotta get one of the first 2 in my option.. here's to hoping we do.

 

 

Here's my research:

 

QBs Drafted

 

1998 - P Manning (1), R Leaf (2)

1999 - T Couch (1), D McNabb (2), Ak Smith (3), D Culpepper (11), C McNown (12)

2000 - C Pennington (18)

2001 - M Vick (1)

2002 - D Carr (1), J Harrington (3), P Ramsey (32)

2003 - C Palmer (1), B Leftwich (7), K Boller (19) , R Grossman (22)

2004 - E Manning (1), P Rivers (4), B Roethlisberger (11), JP Losman (22)

2005 - A Smith (1), A Rodgers (24), J Campbell (25)

2006 - V Young (3), M Leinart (10), J Cutler (11)

2007 - J Russell (1), B Quinn (22)

2008 - M Ryan (3), J Flacco (18)

2009 - M Stafford (1), M Sanchez (5), J Freeman (17)

2010 - S Bradford (1), T Tebow (25)

2011 - C Newton (1), J Locker (8), B Gabbert (10), C Ponder (12)

2012 - A Luck (1), R Griffin (2), R Tannehill (8), B Weeden (22)

 

Great (7)

P Manning, E Manning, P Rivers, B Roethlisberger, A Rodgers, M Ryan, A Luck

 

Above Average (13)

D McNabb, D Culpepper, C Pennington, M Vick, C Palmer, A Smith, J Cutler, J Flacco, M Stafford, C Newton, J Locker, C Ponder, R Griffin

 

Below Average (13)

D Carr, B Leftwich, R Grossman, J Campbell, V Young, B Quinn, M Sanchez, J Freeman, S Bradford, T Tebow, B Gabbert, R Tannehill, B Weeden

 

Bust (10)

R Leaf, T Couch, Ak Smith, C McNown, J Harrington, P Ramsey, K Boller, JP Losman, M Leinart, J Russell

 

It's too soon to put any rookie in any category yet and Cam isn't above average right now.