Billsrhody Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 (edited) Someone else posted this same info last year. Anyway, Luck is already "great"?? Wow! Poor RG3--already only "above average"! And Ryan, who has a grand total of zero playoff games is "great" while McNabb, who won 10 (playing in a competitive division) and played in 5 NFCC games and a SB is "above average"? ok. And didn't "above average" Ponder and his Vikes just get their dicks handed to them, at home, by "below average" Freeman and the Bucs last nite? I'm not saying those players are in those categories right now, just that they're likely to end up there. If Matt Ryan's career plays out like Donovan McNabbs then he would end up being above average too.. I think most people would say that Ryan will end up having a better career than McNabb. The guy is only 27. By all accounts luck is going to be great and Griffin probably will as well except for the injury concerns. Ponder has had a couple of bad games but he's only in his second year and looks like he has the stuff to play in this league. It's too soon to put any rookie in any category yet and Cam isn't above average right now. You're right, he hasnt been great this year. But I'm not trying to say how good he is now, just how he'll be viewed at the end of his career. Edited October 26, 2012 by Billsrhody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maury Ballstein Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I pity anyone who gets drafted to the inept Buffalose Bill's organization. thats the spirit! lets not take the next great qb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solomon Grundy Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Listen folks, the great Bill Walsh once said he'll take an accurate QB over one that can throw the ball 90 yds. any day of the week. Chan's offense seems to need an accurate QB that can read defense. All of the great QB's in the league are accurate as all get up. Some doesn't possess the "strongest" of arms, I.e. Eli Manning, Drew Brees. I hope when the Bills do draft a QB that they draft the guy that can throw the ball through the eye of a needle. That's what made Kelly great, he was accurate as hell with a cannon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Hindsight Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Is a quaterback a franchise QB before he wins a super bowl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I decided to do a little research and look at every QB drafted in the first round over the last 15 years (43 in total). I broke them into four categories in order to evaluate them (Great, Above Average, Below Average, Bust). You can check out how I ranked them below. I used my best guess on the guys that are less than 3 years out but I tried to do it as objectively as possible. This is what I came up with overall: 16.3% great 30.2% above average 30.2% below average 23.3% bust If you look at just QBs drafted in the top 10 (26 in total): 19.2% great 30.8% above average 26.9% below average 23.1% bust So essentially it looks like you have pretty much exactly a 50% chance of getting something good out of drafting a QB in the top 10. Surprisingly, the odds dont drop off too much for the entire first round (46.5%). The Bills are 0/1 in the past 15 years on drafting guys in the first round, they really haven't taken too many chances. Odds are the next one will work out, right? The potential first round picks in this years draft are: M Barkely (USC) G Smith (WV) T Wilson (ARK) L Jones (OU) Gotta get one of the first 2 in my option.. here's to hoping we do. Here's my research: QBs Drafted 1998 - P Manning (1), R Leaf (2) 1999 - T Couch (1), D McNabb (2), Ak Smith (3), D Culpepper (11), C McNown (12) 2000 - C Pennington (18) 2001 - M Vick (1) 2002 - D Carr (1), J Harrington (3), P Ramsey (32) 2003 - C Palmer (1), B Leftwich (7), K Boller (19) , R Grossman (22) 2004 - E Manning (1), P Rivers (4), B Roethlisberger (11), JP Losman (22) 2005 - A Smith (1), A Rodgers (24), J Campbell (25) 2006 - V Young (3), M Leinart (10), J Cutler (11) 2007 - J Russell (1), B Quinn (22) 2008 - M Ryan (3), J Flacco (18) 2009 - M Stafford (1), M Sanchez (5), J Freeman (17) 2010 - S Bradford (1), T Tebow (25) 2011 - C Newton (1), J Locker (8), B Gabbert (10), C Ponder (12) 2012 - A Luck (1), R Griffin (2), R Tannehill (8), B Weeden (22) Great (7) P Manning, E Manning, P Rivers, B Roethlisberger, A Rodgers, M Ryan, A Luck Above Average (13) D McNabb, D Culpepper, C Pennington, M Vick, C Palmer, A Smith, J Cutler, J Flacco, M Stafford, C Newton, J Locker, C Ponder, R Griffin Below Average (13) D Carr, B Leftwich, R Grossman, J Campbell, V Young, B Quinn, M Sanchez, J Freeman, S Bradford, T Tebow, B Gabbert, R Tannehill, B Weeden Bust (10) R Leaf, T Couch, Ak Smith, C McNown, J Harrington, P Ramsey, K Boller, JP Losman, M Leinart, J Russell Very good post! Just to quibble a little: I'd probably put Culpepper into the below average category. Early in his career Randy Moss made him look better than he really was. He achieved nothing after going to Miami, or after returning to the Vikings. I'd also put Tannehill into the above average category, at least for now. At least thus far, his career seems to be off to a solid start. Is a quaterback a franchise QB before he wins a super bowl? Dan Marino never led his team to a Super Bowl victory. Neither did Jim Kelly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maury Ballstein Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Is a quaterback a franchise QB before he wins a super bowl? In the case of rg3 I'd say yea. Leading nfl in completion percentage rushing yards for qb etc. It's geno time...let's see what this guy can do w Spiller and Freddy by his side w monster OL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinky finger Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 If you're serious about drafting a QB it has to be in the first round...Obviously there are no hard and fast rules, but as hard as it is to find a starting QB its that much harder to find one outside the 1st round. I'd draft a QB with our first 2 picks. Better odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronc24 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I liked the move at the time. We needed a franchise QB and he seemed to fit the requirements to be sucessful in Buffalo. Sadly, I think that trade has served as a reminder to the Bills FO why you dont trade up to draft a QB CBF I'd say RGIII is an example of why you do. And even after you find one you should keep looking. This. i did a little research too...... of the last 20 super bowl winning QB's.....90% were FRANCHISE QB's you just keep drafting or aquiring QB's via trades & free agency until you hit on one..... And this. I also did some research, and here are the results of my studies: Percentage of Demographic that Highly Values an Elite Quarterback Winning NFL Franchises - 100% Average NFL Fans - 90% Buffalo Bills Fans - 50% Bills Management - 0% And this. Lol. What is the winning percentage of teams that draft a QB in the First round to the winning percentage of teams that have never drafted a QB with their first pick in the first round in the history of their ****ty franchise because they constantly feed **** sandwiches to their fans? And, finally, this. Trading up for Losman was a panic move. He had a decent arm but lacked accuracy and intangibles. If, and that's a big if, we ever get a FO with balls and an eye for talent, hopefully they will recognize you need to be solid at the QB position to win in this league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Doug Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 (edited) I'd draft a QB with our first 2 picks. Better odds. This really is not a bad idea. I wonder if its ever been done. Closest thing I can think of is what the Redskins did with the last draft. Worse thing that can happen is that the 2nd pick QB is a bust. It's not like we never had 2nd or 3rd busts. Best thing that can happen is that he develops well and we trade him for another 1st. I just think its poor planning that our current FO has not drafted a QB in the last few drafts. Regardless of the starter, a team should always be grooming a young QB. Edited October 27, 2012 by kas23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sisyphean Bills Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 thats the spirit! lets not take the next great qb The guarantee works only one way -- if you don't even try, you guarantee a lack of success. Maybe someday they'll stop worrying about guarantees and dare to become great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteski Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 We should of took Rothlesberger(?) when Pittsburgh was dangling him for a first round pick after the rape charge. At the time I was glad they didn't but if I had a do-over I would of made the trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 (edited) One thing that stands out in a good way is that the success rate seems to be improving. The past two years we've seen 3 arguably guaranteed franchise QBs taken (Cam, Luck, RG3) Two very possible franchise QBs (Ponder, Tannehill) and Two potentially serviceable QBs (Weeden and Gabbert). I know Gabbert had a horrible first year, but this year he has showed a lot more promise. In all I don't think any of the teams, save the Browns, regret their first round QB picks over the past 2 years....and part of the Browns regret is that they will likely be drafting high enough this year to grab a true franchise QB. That doesn't mean you should always take a QB in the first round, but if it is a guy that has a consensus first round grade there seems to be some strong indicators that his selection will be a great choice. Trade partner? Seriously, i think Buffalo would be foolish not to pull a Redskins this draft. If you put a good QB on the Bills this is a different team. Trade your first this year and next year, as well as your 2nd next year to Cleveland for their first this year. Even throw in your third this year if you have too. QB in first and best LB in second. Buddy and the entire FO have to see that for the first time in a long time the Bills are a few players away from being a very good team. Edited October 27, 2012 by atlbillsfan1975 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 (edited) We should of took Rothlesberger(?) when Pittsburgh was dangling him for a first round pick after the rape charge. At the time I was glad they didn't but if I had a do-over I would of made the trade. Thank you for admitting your change of heart. Its 2 or 3 years later and look, everyone forgot and he is still playing at a high level. Good thing we took the moral highground and were rewarded with a constant 6-10 franchise. Would anyone not trade CJ Spiller straight up for Big Ben? Is there a football reason you wouldn't take that trade? Edited October 27, 2012 by Why So Serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T master Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Your right it is hit and miss, however your post lacks subjectivity.......wheres the other qbs that are doing good.I.E Andy Dalton. Joe Flacco, Russel Wilson etc.... And then there are the back ups around the league like a Ryan Mallet , Seattle has a viable back up as does Philly , Washington, Miami & even to a point in our own stable T Jack that won't get a chance this year ob/c he is relegated to 3rd string b/c of the lack of just giving him reps , or him along with others taking the initiative in his free time to get some guys together to get the reps on their own time (heaven knows it's not like their not making enough money to justify putting in a little over time) If he was to do that it would prove how hungry he is to be the best & then Gailey may move him up the food chain . Thank you for admitting your change of heart. Its 2 or 3 later and look, everyone forgot and he is still playing at a high level. Good thing we took the moral highground and were rewarded with a constant 6-10 franchise. Would anyone not trade CJ Spiller straight up for Big Ben? Is there a football reason you wouldn't take that trade? Ya b/c our back field will be great for the next 6 years any way if we do the right thing & pay him what he needs But then again if we don't start to win he won't want to stay any way so it's a double edged sword !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 (edited) And then there are the back ups around the league like a Ryan Mallet , Seattle has a viable back up as does Philly , Washington, Miami & even to a point in our own stable T Jack that won't get a chance this year ob/c he is relegated to 3rd string b/c of the lack of just giving him reps , or him along with others taking the initiative in his free time to get some guys together to get the reps on their own time (heaven knows it's not like their not making enough money to justify putting in a little over time) If he was to do that it would prove how hungry he is to be the best & then Gailey may move him up the food chain . Ya b/c our back field will be great for the next 6 years any way if we do the right thing & pay him what he needs But then again if we don't start to win he won't want to stay any way so it's a double edged sword !! Running Backs are a dime a dozen. The rest of the NFL realizes that. Look at our roster of RBs that are still playing McGahee, Lynch, Fred Jackson, CJ Spiller, Choice contributed Hell even Joique Bell is getting some decent playing time and contributing in Detroit (except for that goaline fumble against the Bears). Having Big Ben for the next 6 years much more valuable. Have these RBs led to anymore wins? Edited October 27, 2012 by Why So Serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solomon Grundy Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 We should of took Rothlesberger(?) when Pittsburgh was dangling him for a first round pick after the rape charge. At the time I was glad they didn't but if I had a do-over I would of made the trade. OK, this is where the gloves come off! It was unacceptable to get Vick without giving up anything due to his dog conviction but you would have accepted Roethlisberger and gave up a first round pick for a purported rapist. Are you Richard Mourdock or Todd Akin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solomon Grundy Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Running Backs are a dime a dozen. The rest of the NFL realizes that. Look at our roster of RBs that are still playing McGahee, Lynch, Fred Jackson, CJ Spiller, Choice contributed Hell even Joique Bell is getting some decent playing time and contributing in Detroit (except for that goaline fumble against the Bears). Having Big Ben for the next 6 years much more valuable. Have these RBs led to anymore wins? Say NO to another teams problems! Roesthlisberger is no better than Michael Vick! The Bills brass need to do their research and get us a QB out of the draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsrhody Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Roethlisberger is no better than Vick? Seriously? Although I would rather draft a QB.. Big Ben is 5 times as good as Vick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Say NO to another teams problems! Roesthlisberger is no better than Michael Vick! The Bills brass need to do their research and get us a QB out of the draft. Roethlisberger is no better than Vick? Seriously? Although I would rather draft a QB.. Big Ben is 5 times as good as Vick. Big Ben is better than Jim Kelly. It is a fact. Bigger, Stronger, faster, and accurate. No matter what you think of the traditional Steelers Offense they have been Pass wacky for the last few years employee more passes than runs. And Big Ben has more Super Bowl rings to prove it. Big Ben will be a 1st ballot HOFer without question from anyone that employs logic and understand football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamestown-cuse Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm so tired of hearing about the QB's coming out of USC every year. Matt Barkely won't amount to s*** especially because the clown Kiffin has been meddling in his head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Doug Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 OK, this is where the gloves come off! It was unacceptable to get Vick without giving up anything due to his dog conviction but you would have accepted Roethlisberger and gave up a first round pick for a purported rapist. Are you Richard Mourdock or Todd Akin? "I have never been charged with a crime...But I soon realized there were still some skeptics out there, so I just decided to audible to doing a 'My Bad on the raping.'" - Roethlisbeger "I take these charges very seriously and look forward to clearing my good name. I respectfully ask all of you to hold your judgment until all of the facts are shown." - Vick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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