The Bills are on the clock: Pick 33

[SCBills]

Not sure if there’s any reliability here, but..

 

 

[Low Positive]

2 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Not sure if there’s any reliability here, but..

 

 

Shhhh Maybe they won't notice.

[ngbills]

3 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:

 

I had suspected that with Diggs around, he was dictating where the ball had to go. The other team would triple Diggs on 3rd down and Allen would jam the ball in there anyway and he would drop it or get defended because EVERYONE knew it was going there and the Bills punt and I'm cursing at the screen about "well don't throw it THERE." It was different from when Allen wasn't yes established and/or he was making the grabs, but it just got too predictable. Being less rote as to where the defense needs to key in critical situations - I wouldn't be at all surprised if overall efficiency of the Bills offense improves for the absence of Diggs in that instance.

I get this logic and I dont. Its the OC's job to get guys open and QB job to make the right read. If Allen is throwing in triple coverage he is making the wrong read because someone else is open. If Diggs is always double and triple covered then the OC is failing. You dont have a Diggs there is no reason to triple anyone and its easier to defend everyone on the field.

By the logic of you dont want a guy that demands the ball no team should want any dominant receiver and obviously that is not the case. WR's are getting paid because that is what you need in the NFL to win. Before someone says well KC - they are clearly trying to add WR's and doing it with early picks and free agent $. 

A better take is Diggs was not the player he used to be and the Bills need to upgrade. Not they dont need him and are better with a bunch of average guys and no star WR. 

[Bruffalo]

4 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Not sure if there’s any reliability here, but..

 

 

Inject that process directly into my veins. 

 

I would be ecstatic if this happens. We can throw in a R5 pick too even. 

[dave mcbride]

Just now, Bruffalo said:

Inject that process directly into my veins. 

 

I would be ecstatic if this happens. We can throw in a R5 pick too even. 

I can't see this happening at all. It's a terrible trade for Washington!

[Bruffalo]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

I can't see this happening at all. It's a terrible trade for Washington!

It's unlikely, but it is Washington we're talking about here.

[947]

15 minutes ago, Monty98 said:

Polk was someone I thought shined in big games. He was a big play waiting to happen, he was a good route runner, good speed. 9 TDs this year. I'd prefer Mitchell or Rice size wise but Polk is a guy that watching him play made him stick out on film

 

I agree. I watched some Washington games to look at Odunze, but it was Polk who stood out to me. I think he'll be a very good NFL player.

[Big Blitz]

If these WRs are not WR1s - I am leaning in to the strength of the offense and drafting Zach Frazier at 33.   
 

That’s the play.  We can address WR mid 2nd round. 
 

 

WR1 isn’t getting solved this weekend barring a trade.   
 

But I can put the BEST OLINE in the league and Allen’s Center for the next decade together in about 3 hours.  
 

Only needing WRs for the offense bc every other key position is set for years.  
 

That’s the play.  

Edited April 26 by Big Blitz

[boyst]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I can't see this happening at all. It's a terrible trade for Washington!

Bill Polian has been slamming the point system for trade value all week or more. the picks / points only matters as much as you value the player is his point. a 87 point difference this year on the draft to have a player this season you value more than a later pick is aburd. he said it's about the player not the points.

[MiracleAtRich1393]

11 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Not sure if there’s any reliability here, but..

 

 

Guessing this would also include a 2025 pick, everyone has the same damn chart lol

 

But to be clear, I'd love it even so

Edited April 26 by MiracleAtRich1393

[Mikey152]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I can't see this happening at all. It's a terrible trade for Washington!

Value wise, yes...

 

But if their guy is at 33, you never know. They have a lot of picks tonight (5)...going down to 4 AND getting a guy they covet might be worth it.

[Turbo44]

7 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I can't see this happening at all. It's a terrible trade for Washington!

seems to good to be true BUT there always is a ton of interest in pick 33:

1. teams have 20 hours to think.talk about it, and

2. This year there are 3 players sticking out like a sore thumb:  DeJean, Johnson and Newton

[Back2Buff]

13 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Not sure if there’s any reliability here, but..

 

 

 

The profile of Dayle Forness says adult entertainment enthusiast and he is a Bills fan.  I would throw this out the window.

[ngbills]

Why do so many people say McConkey has a high floor? He has injury concerns, production concerns and size concerns. I dont see that as high floor. I could see him barely seeing the field in the NFL. Maybe I am wrong on him, just never been impressed. Seems like a solid dude that works hard but not a guy that will translate to the nfl unless in the right system. 

[Mikey152]

3 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:

seems to good to be true BUT there always is a ton of interest in pick 33:

1. teams have 20 hours to think.talk about it, and

2. This year there are 3 players sticking out like a sore thumb:  DeJean, Johnson and Newton

And Washington is at 36, so they'd miss out by 1.

[OldTimer1960]

40 minutes ago, Turk71 said:

Troy Franklin was a top 3 wr recruit coming out of high school, rated higher than every single wr in this draft. Joe Brady was a big fan and tried hard to get him to LSU. 

  Franklin's college career reaffirmed that he was one of the very best. If he had been healthy at the combine he would be off the board already imo. I consider him a top 4 wr in this draft and would rather have him than Thomas, Worthy, Mitchell, Legette, etc. 

 I hope he's the target

Justin Shorter was a top WR recruit coming from H.S. and he was picked late in the 5th round.  I don’t like Franklin’s route running, contested catches ability or ability to play strong on the boundary.  FWIW, Greg Cosell didn’t exactly articulate a ringing endorsement today on Buffalobills.com

[Low Positive]

Just now, OldTimer1960 said:

Justin Shorter was a top WR recruit coming from H.S. and he was picked late in the 5th round.  I don’t like Franklin’s route running, contested catches ability or ability to play strong on the boundary.  FWIW, Greg Cosell didn’t exactly articulate a ringing endorsement today on Buffalobills.com

I'm not sure Greg Cosell likes any players.

[Logic]

Supposedly, it's the worst kept secret of the draft this year that Washington wants to move up and get an offensive tackle to protect their new QB investment.

While I don't necessarily trust the veracity of the person who posted the rumor or the specifics of the trade itself, it won't surprise me in the least if we DO trade with Washington.

It's about as far back as I can see Beane being willing to move, too.

[OldTimer1960]

8 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

Value wise, yes...

 

But if their guy is at 33, you never know. They have a lot of picks tonight (5)...going down to 4 AND getting a guy they covet might be worth it.

Trying to guess who their guy would be.  For as lauded as this receiver class is, I’m not terribly excited about the guys left.

[Back2Buff]

5 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Why do so many people say McConkey has a high floor? He has injury concerns, production concerns and size concerns. I dont see that as high floor. I could see him barely seeing the field in the NFL. Maybe I am wrong on him, just never been impressed. Seems like a solid dude that works hard but not a guy that will translate to the nfl unless in the right system. 

 

I see a lot of Copper Kupp in McConkey.  They play very similar games. 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Einstein's Dog said:

You think a lower cost, 4th to 5th rounder WR is going to be more attractive than DHop?  Or K Allen.

 

And yes, I'm thinking short term for this vet.  The hope would be our other WR that we take can ascend into the WR1 role - be it McConkey/Franklin/Coleman or AD.  And I am also hoping the FO keeps putting draft resources into the WR position, isn't 2 years from now supposed to be a great WR draft? (again).

 

No one will for sure get us over the hump, but I have always felt the best chance to get the big prize was to be a contender for multiple years.  We lost our top WR in Diggs and I don't think a rookie is anywhere near an adequate replacement.

 

 

You know value to the team extends past 1 year right?  What I said was that the young player has more value unless you see that DHop is the missing piece this year to get over the hump.  And I don't think anyone looks at us right now and says "if they only had that 1 old vet WR they would be the SB favorites this year" except for maybe some people on here.

 

And there is no way to know how much DHop can or can't help this team until we see just how well the changes are key starting spots on both sides of the ball pan out in what is a semi-transitional year.  So yes, I think in a WR draft class this deep that a 4th round WR very much could have more value to this team than just wasting cap space and a draft pick on DHop.

 

Shakir was a 5th round pick.  What if we had not drafted Shakir and instead used that pick on an aging 1 year rental of a vet WR instead?  You think that would have changed anything against the Bengals where we got embarrassed and dominated in the trenches, where Bengals were more physical and Dorsey got his a** handed to him from a coaching stand point?  Where is the guy who was screaming at everyone here because we didn't sign Julio Jones that year lol?

 

I will take Shakir over any 1 year aging vet rental that would have made absolutely no difference in the finality of our season that year.  And that is not even a close decision what so ever.

 

The obsession this board has with aging names they now is crazy to me.  DHop last year coming in and elevating what was seen as a Championship roster made some sense.  But right now, in a loaded WR draft class and with a transitional change across the roster, give me the rookie over the aging 1 year vet all day long.  

[OldTimer1960]

1 minute ago, Logic said:

Supposedly, it's the worst kept secret of the draft this year that Washington wants to move up and get an offensive tackle to protect their new QB investment.

While I don't necessarily trust the veracity of the person who posted the rumor or the specifics of the trade itself, it won't surprise me in the least if we DO trade with Washington.

It's about as far back as I can see Beane being willing to move, too.

I would like for them to trade down with Washington, if they get back decent value.  I don’t see anyone at pick 33 who is “must have”.

[ndirish1978]

Only way I'd trade 33 is if we fleece someone to move WAY up from 60 as well. Too many solid projected starters at positions of need to drop more than 3-4 down.

[Mojo44]

12 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

 

The profile of Dayle Forness says adult entertainment enthusiast and he is a Bills fan.  I would throw this out the window.

So he’s a Bill’s fan and he likes porn. I don’t see the problem.

Edited April 26 by Mojo44

[Turbo44]

6 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

I'm not sure Greg Cosell likes any players.

he likes Mitchell

[ndirish1978]

Just now, Turbo44 said:

he likes Mitchell

 

Mitchell has all the tools to be a #1 and enough questions about his work ethic/maturity that he scared WR needy teams out of drafting him in the 1st round. I'd be happy if he's the pick, but I would feel zero peace that he's going to become a consistent player. 

[ngbills]

6 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

 

I see a lot of Copper Kupp in McConkey.  They play very similar games. 

Kupp produced in college. Dude had like 30 games with over 100 yds and multiple 200+ games. McConkey has like 2 100 yards games...

[HappyDays]

4 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I would like for them to trade down with Washington, if they get back decent value.  I don’t see anyone at pick 33 who is “must have”.

 

To get #36 and #40, we could give up #33, #60, and one of our 2025 2nds. That would be equal value by the Rich Hill chart. It is a risk though because NE needs a WR. But we could double dip at WR at #36 and #40 in that scenario.

[LEBills]

29 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Not sure if there’s any reliability here, but..

 

 

It’s all speculation but makes sense. Washington can get to 33 and have their pick of the remaining OTs ahead of the Pats

[Mojo44]

1 minute ago, ndirish1978 said:

 

Mitchell has all the tools to be a #1 and enough questions about his work ethic/maturity that he scared WR needy teams out of drafting him in the 1st round. I'd be happy if he's the pick, but I would feel zero peace that he's going to become a consistent player. 

I have the same concerns. But if Buffalo does take him then I have to think, or at least hope, that they fully vetted these issues and are OK with taking him. We will see. 

[ngbills]

6 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

Only way I'd trade 33 is if we fleece someone to move WAY up from 60 as well. Too many solid projected starters at positions of need to drop more than 3-4 down.

We need 1 or even 2 starting/contributing WR's. If we can trade down and get 2 in the 2nd round maybe. Otherwise we need a starting WR at 33. That guy seems like Mitchell. 

[ndirish1978]

2 minutes ago, Mojo44 said:

I have the same concerns. But if Buffalo does take him then I have to think, or at least hope, that they fully vetted these issues and are OK with taking him. We will see. 

 

I don't have that confidence. We gave Diggs a big extension and then cut him loose even though we had him in the building and knew his history and still didn't realize he was nuts.

Edited April 26 by ndirish1978

[itaos]

7 minutes ago, Mojo44 said:

So he’s a Bill’s fan and he likes porn. I don’t see the problem.

Bills fandom and porn are fine. Not having any sources could be an issue.

[<bills4life>]

8 minutes ago, Mojo44 said:

So he’s a Bill’s fan and he likes porn. I don’t see the problem.

So what you are saying is that he is like most of the members on this message board.

[Mojo44]

5 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

 

I don't have that confidence. We gave Diggs a big extension and then cut him loose even though we had him in the building and knew his history and still didn't realize he was nuts.

Good point well taken. I’m not actually confident about this. I’m just hopeful.🤔

[HerdMentality]

bidding war heating up....

[OldTimer1960]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

To get #36 and #40, we could give up #33, #60, and one of our 2025 2nds. That would be equal value by the Rich Hill chart. It is a risk though because NE needs a WR. But we could double dip at WR at #36 and #40 in that scenario.

I would strongly prefer not to trade 2025 picks at a discount, though obviously they might see it differently.  If they got 36 and 40, I don’t think I could find 2 WR that I would want to double up on.  I presume Mitchell is out of play based on the character/effort rumors (ad it we don’t know if true).  What 2 WR would you want in that range?

[Einstein's Dog]

6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

You know value to the team extends past 1 year right?  What I said was that the young player has more value unless you see that DHop is the missing piece this year to get over the hump.  And I don't think anyone looks at us right now and says "if they only had that 1 old vet WR they would be the SB favorites this year" except for maybe some people on here.

 

And there is no way to know how much DHop can or can't help this team until we see just how well the changes are key starting spots on both sides of the ball pan out in what is a semi-transitional year.  So yes, I think in a WR draft class this deep that a 4th round WR very much could have more value to this team than just wasting cap space and a draft pick on DHop.

 

Shakir was a 5th round pick.  What if we had not drafted Shakir and instead used that pick on an aging 1 year rental of a vet WR instead?  You think that would have changed anything against the Bengals where we got embarrassed and dominated in the trenches, where Bengals were more physical and Dorsey got his a** handed to him from a coaching stand point?  Where is the guy who was screaming at everyone here because we didn't sign Julio Jones that year lol?

 

I will take Shakir over any 1 year aging vet rental that would have made absolutely no difference in the finality of our season that year.  And that is not even a close decision what so ever.

 

The obsession this board has with aging names they now is crazy to me.  DHop last year coming in and elevating what was seen as a Championship roster made some sense.  But right now, in a loaded WR draft class and with a transitional change across the roster, give me the rookie over the aging 1 year vet all day long.  

The difference, to me, is you have settled to call this a "semi-transitional" year.  I don't think we need to do that.  In order to avoid the "semi-transitional" year we should add a veteran WR.  The draft is for the future (and by the way, that is what Shakir was about).  We definitely should add a WR for the future (and with an early round pick hopefully get earlier returns so they can be useful this year),  And IMO start doing so on a more regular basis.

 

 For 2024 though, A WR veteran is easily >5th rounder.   I give the DHop example but many others qualify.

 

Beane can, and should, assemble a WR room that gets the Bills back to a talent level that is not considered "transitional".

[Roundybout]

 

 

Ian Rap says his inclination is that Buffalo picks at 33

[MasterStrategist]

7 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

To get #36 and #40, we could give up #33, #60, and one of our 2025 2nds. That would be equal value by the Rich Hill chart. It is a risk though because NE needs a WR. But we could double dip at WR at #36 and #40 in that scenario.

I think that's a bit much, I'm also looking at Rich Hill chart.

 

I think a possibility, without including 2025 2nd, is....

 

Buf: 33, 144, 163

Was: 36, 100

 

Pretty even and avoids 2025 picks being traded.  Also gets us 1 additional pick in the top 100, by sacrificing an extra 5th