Rumor: Bills trying aggressively to move up for a WR in round one

[section122]

9 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

Just off the top of my head - 

 

Luck

Hasselbeck (Matt)

Tatupu

Edmunds (Tremaine)

Heyward

 

 

I was trying to find dads that werre succesful and then the son was better than them.  

 

There are tons of families that played just not a lot of elite father son duos.

[aristocrat]

1 minute ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Those contacts failed him last year.

 

how so? we got kincaid? were we trying to get up higher for someone else?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

7 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

 

how so? we got kincaid? were we trying to get up higher for someone else?

They wanted Addison.

[Fan in Chicago]

1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:

It’s so true. I had the same thoughts. I have kind of come to terms with the fact that both Buffalo and KC are going to take WR and whatever happens we will probably be left wondering if KC got the better guy. It sucks, but when we continue to pick in close proximity and have similar needs, it just is what it is at this point. 

Simply keeping up with the Chiefs means we will stay one step behind. We need to leap frog them. With weapons to over come the gap in coaching 

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, Buffalo Ballin said:

I don't see how Marvin Harrison Jr. is just as great as his old man, the OG Marvin Harrison. Shaking my head. I don't get it. I have never seen the son surpassing the father WHEN the father is already top tier. The son would be lucky just to be in the same tier as his dad.

 

I don't care how these scouts and Youtubers are selling MHJ. I rather have Nabers, too.

Barry Bonds wants a word with you!

[Reed83HOF]

 

[JustAnotherBillsFan]

14 hours ago, london_bills said:

What's buddy nix up to

He's trying to rob the same train every other gm is 😀. 

 

I loved that quote.

[mjt328]

There is a good argument for trading up.  

There is a good argument for trading down.

 

History shows that (on average) higher picks have a much better success rate, and less chance at busting.

History also shows you can still get elite players later, and more picks gives you more chances at getting it right.

I'm torn on which strategy I think is best for the Buffalo Bills right now.  

 

On one hand, the team is severely lacking top level talent.  If someone was to ask who the All-Pros were on this team over the last 3-4 years, that list would include Stefon Diggs, Tre White, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde... all gone.  Outside of Josh Allen, the only top guys we have left are Von Miller (who may be done) and Matt Milano (coming back from a major leg injury).  The hope is that young talent like Dalton Kincaid, O'Cyrus Torrence, Tyrell Bernard, etc. will step into those roles.  But it's hard to argue against making a bold move for a guy who many think can be a Top 5 guy in the NFL for the next decade.

 

At the same time, trading up will almost certainly cost starting talent at other positions.  We could use help on the Defensive Line and Safety, and less Day 2 picks makes it much tougher to address.  We would also be putting all our eggs in one basket... which as many have pointed out, could turn out like Sammy Watkins.  He was also supposed to be a star, and looked the part early.  His career was derailed by foot injuries, which isn't something anyone can predict.

 

[whorlnut]

36 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Barry Bonds wants a word with you!

Griffey too

[MDH]

9 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Yes, you know, I've heard this argument a number of times over the last few months. Turner and Verse will be gone for sure. Latu if he falls because of injury concerns, and Robinson. I'm not sure who else you would consider. I just don't like Robinson. I wouldn't take him at 28. If I didn't like a WR there (well, I'm pretty sure I would), but if I didn't I would rather try and trade back. Latu is the only fella I think you should consider if you are okay with the medicals. I think someone will take him before 28.

 

And then, I think they need a big X and a Z, so I want two WRs early if I can find value there. So the depth at WR to me means maybe I can get two early.

 

I’ve pretty much come to the conclusion that I’d prefer, in order:

 

1) Trade back, grab a WR 

2) Trade up to 8-10, grab a WR

3) Pick a non WR at 28 if the value dictates it.

4) Draft a WR at 28.

 

This is all generally speaking, of course, it depends on how the board falls.
Only WR that can reasonably be gotten at 28 who I’d take there is BTJ. I don’t think he’s falling that far.

 

I like Robinson there if he’s available. And while I love Latu’s game I just can’t get behind selecting him earlier than, say, the 3-4th. Everything I’ve read says that his fusion surgery has an average shelf life of 3-4 playing years. He's a ticking time bomb and has already used up most of those years. Maybe someone gets lucky but let another team take that gamble. 

[518Buffalo]

42 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

 

Agree with this. As we come out of the Hyde/Poyer/White/Diggs/Davis/Morse era, the focus needs to be on maximizing the next 5 year window (where Josh will be 28-32) instead of maximizing just next year. Maybe that involves getting Odunze at all costs, but I'm firmly in the "don't reach/overpay for a WR" camp. Obviously we need WRs, but it's more important to hit on impact players now and in future drafts.

 

Ideal draft for me would be trading back to pick up a 3rd (Rich Hill chart shows the LV's 44 and 77 as roughly equal to 28), getting WRs in the second round and day 3, then still having 2 day 2 picks plus the rest of our draft to shore up the rest of the roster

 

[mannc]

58 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Barry Bonds wants a word with you!

And the Bosa brothers

[MikePJ76]

23 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

Griffey too

there are lots of baseball players like this. 

 

this year marvin harrisons kid and jerry rices kid get a shot.  I think next year emmitt smith's son will be in the draft after his senior year at A&M

[Beck Water]

On 4/24/2024 at 6:35 AM, section122 said:

A thought I can't shake:

 

How many wrs currently in the nfl would you trade 2 1st round picks for?  It isn't many.  I get the idea of the player being cost controlled but I still have a hard time seeing it being worth it especially since it likely will cost additional picks.

 

This.  When we traded for Diggs, we only gave up 1 - late first rounder.

 

It would be next year's 1st, probably the next year's 2nd we got for Diggs, maybe this year's second.    So then you have to figure in the opportunity cost of the players you would have drafted and had a chance to keep on a cost-controlled contract for 4 years.

 

The bottom line is, no one really knows for sure the effect it will have on a man to have a net worth of ~$20M (#10 pick) overnight - what effect it will have on his lifestyle, his work ethic, his willingness to sacrifice his body for teammates, his humility and willingness to listen carefully and take coaching.  Will he keep his ears open, or will he become an "alligator station"?

 

That's one of the reasons 1st round draft picks have a variable success rate that has nothing to do with athletic measurables and skills shown on college game tape.

 

I'm not intending to pick on these college football players, btw.  I don't think any of us really know what the effect on us would be to have $2M dropped on us, let alone $20.

 

13 hours ago, alg said:

Didn't they pay out some money to Diggs just before trading him?

And doesn't the Dawkins terms make him more attractive?

 

I'm not sure what you mean about "the Dawkins terms".

 

No, they didn't pay out money to Diggs just before trading him.  They kept him on the roster past the date where a guarantee for his 2024 salary kicked in, so Houston got a player who was owned $19M of which $18.5 was fully guaranteed.  But Houston assumed 100% of the guarantees that kicked in just before the trade.

Edited April 25 by Beck Water

[nosejob]

I'd rather...and believe Beane will pull a pick or 2 from next year out of his pocket to make sure we get a handful of impact players this year. We'll have FA money next year, so now's the time for him to ball out.

[boyst]

14 hours ago, london_bills said:

Were taking a RB round one lads 🤣🤣🤣

Safety round two.  Bills head would explode the likes of which would be heard down the eastern seaboard. 

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

luckily, our need is fully squared with first round value 

[Mat68]

2 hours ago, section122 said:

I was trying to find dads that werre succesful and then the son was better than them.  

 

There are tons of families that played just not a lot of elite father son duos.

Manning.  That said Marvin Harrison Jr has been a touted recruit.  Been hyped his whole career and has met the expectations.  That hype and pressure would fold a guy that wasnt it. Especially, now in the NIL about me culture.  Seems to be like his dad. Out of the spot light hard worker.  If your giving up a ransom you do it for him imo.  Otherwise sit and pick our move to 19 to 23.  

[SCBills]

If it's for Nabers or Odunze, I'm firmly on board.  Anyone else, meh - as long as it's a modest trade up, ok.

 

We keep going to battle with a complete & deep roster.  And we keep losing to a team that has 3 dudes, 2 of which are better than anyone we've ever had (Kelce, Jones)

 

We'll have money next year to add legitimate FA pieces.  If a move can be made to find Josh Allen a "dude".. I'm ok trading away next years 1st with zero hesitation.

[34-78-83]

As the draft rapidly approaches, all I can say to everyone is to learn from the past. Learn from the Josh Allen selection. NONE of us know more than the teams spending thousands of man hours on these guys, not only on the field, but how these guys fit to their teams, what their mental and medical situations are, how much of a risk the teams are willing to take on a guy, etc. Also none of us INCLUDING the teams know if any of these guys will work out in the league. The pre-draft rankings you have or agree with out there probably don't come too close to matching any other team's draft board, especially as you get out of the 1st 20 prospects. Sure there are players with higher odds than others... Resist drawing your lines in the sand where you claim either "Super Bowl here we come!" or "This team is doomed and set back 5 years!" after your team's selection. You have no idea of that. The league turns over much faster than it used to in terms of rosters. Take the choices that are made and try to reason why they were, and know that a whole organization is behind the decision. There are going to be "sure thing" players who end up failing, along with RAS score 1.5 players who shine in the game. Bottom line, try to enjoy the draft.