Joe Marino's Bills specific draft board: Horizontal & Vertical

[transplantbillsfan]

You can watch the episode with his explanation of it here, but right below the video I posted the link to his Google Doc that shows both his horizontal and vertical draft boards.  As he says in the video, the horizontal one may be most interesting and relevant because it breaks players down into tiers.:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1d6y5YK7S5pN8WgqF5t6qJSvpyQsA44hDkts8hPHDDSs/htmlview#

 

He only did 170 players this year because he only had 5 months to do it, unlike previous years where he does it year round.

 

Might be a good tool to look at on draft night.

[NI Bills Fan]

Thanks OP. I listened to the episode earlier (audio only) so it's good to actually see the board 👍

 

 

[BillsFan130]

It was a tough listen on only audio as it was hard to follow along, but probably way better on youtube.

 

Thanks for sharing

[KDIGGZ]

He lost me with Xavier Leggette as round 1 and the 4th receiver on the board over Brian Thomas Jr. I've watched a lot of these and nobody has ever been that high on Leggette. It reminds me of when Chris Trepasso had Mason Rudolph as his QB1 and said he would be the next Marino. I think these guys try to be controversial on purpose so if it pans out then they look smart 

[transplantbillsfan]

13 minutes ago, NI Bills Fan said:

Thanks OP. I listened to the episode earlier (audio only) so it's good to actually see the board 👍

 

 

 

10 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

It was a tough listen on only audio as it was hard to follow along, but probably way better on youtube.

 

Thanks for sharing

 

Yeah, I listened this morning thinking he'd go through the players, but he didn't.  Still, it was good to listen to it first and then look at the document to view all the players themselves.

6 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

He lost me with Xavier Leggette as round 1 and the 4th receiver on the board over Brian Thomas Jr. I've watched a lot of these and nobody has ever been that high on Leggette. It reminds me of when Chris Trepasso had Mason Rudolph as his QB1 and said he would be the next Marino. I think these guys try to be controversial on purpose so if it pans out then they look smart 

 

@GunnerBill also has Leggette as his 4th WR, from what I can remember.

 

Plus, there's been a lot of talk among the media that Leggette could slip into round 1.  What that likely means is that while the national media has one perspective on him, NFL teams have another.

[NeverOutNick]

11 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

He lost me with Xavier Leggette as round 1 and the 4th receiver on the board over Brian Thomas Jr. I've watched a lot of these and nobody has ever been that high on Leggette. It reminds me of when Chris Trepasso had Mason Rudolph as his QB1 and said he would be the next Marino. I think these guys try to be controversial on purpose so if it pans out then they look smart 

I was actually excited to watch until you told me this. That’s laughable and not worth my time 

[transplantbillsfan]

22 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

He lost me with Xavier Leggette as round 1 and the 4th receiver on the board over Brian Thomas Jr. I've watched a lot of these and nobody has ever been that high on Leggette. It reminds me of when Chris Trepasso had Mason Rudolph as his QB1 and said he would be the next Marino. I think these guys try to be controversial on purpose so if it pans out then they look smart 

 

11 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

I was actually excited to watch until you told me this. That’s laughable and not worth my time 

 

Can I ask you guys why you think Xavier Leggette is so clearly not a 1st rounder?

[BuffaloBillyG]

27 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

He lost me with Xavier Leggette as round 1 and the 4th receiver on the board over Brian Thomas Jr. I've watched a lot of these and nobody has ever been that high on Leggette. It reminds me of when Chris Trepasso had Mason Rudolph as his QB1 and said he would be the next Marino. I think these guys try to be controversial on purpose so if it pans out then they look smart 

I personally think too many in the mock draft community are too high on Thomas. Good player, certainly. But I've said for a bit...but I'm not going to be shocked if he's not WR4 off the board on Thursday. I think he's lower on team draft boards than many would think 

[CaptnCoke11]

40 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

He lost me with Xavier Leggette as round 1 and the 4th receiver on the board over Brian Thomas Jr. I've watched a lot of these and nobody has ever been that high on Leggette. It reminds me of when Chris Trepasso had Mason Rudolph as his QB1 and said he would be the next Marino. I think these guys try to be controversial on purpose so if it pans out then they look smart 

Not everyone has players ranked in the same order.  Take it for what it’s worth 

[Aussie Joe]

Who wants the Bills to take Dejean at 28 … even if he is the best player left on the board ? 

 

Not me… not this year …

[Kaenon]

50 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

He lost me with Xavier Leggette as round 1 and the 4th receiver on the board over Brian Thomas Jr. I've watched a lot of these and nobody has ever been that high on Leggette. It reminds me of when Chris Trepasso had Mason Rudolph as his QB1 and said he would be the next Marino. I think these guys try to be controversial on purpose so if it pans out then they look smart 

I don't think Legette is out of the question in round 1.

 

The draftniks work in that space for a reason, and the scouts, talent evaluators and personnel guys work on teams for a reason - they are the pros.

[Mikie2times]

6 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Who wants the Bills to take Dejean at 28 … even if he is the best player left on the board ? 

 

Not me… not this year …

What would you want to see in that situation?

[KDIGGZ]

18 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

 

Can I ask you guys why you think Xavier Leggette is so clearly not a 1st rounder?

If he was a round 1 guy he would have destroyed the competition at the senior bowl. He did not. He had 5 years in college and was only good for 1 of those years when by then he was 2-3 years older and more seasoned than everyone else. He has had a lot of drops. I think he can be a faster Gabe Davis type. Would you use a 1st round pick on Gabe Davis? I like him but not in round 1. To me he's a 2nd rounder

[Aussie Joe]

6 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

What would you want to see in that situation?

Pick someone else or trade down… 

 

So you would take him ?  I’m not knocking him as a player … but just think they might easier get by with a later pick at Safety …then a couple of other positions where that have some need 

[Adam727]

13 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Who wants the Bills to take Dejean at 28 … even if he is the best player left on the board ? 

 

Not me… not this year …

Only if they think he's a starting CB in the NFL.  The Bills are in salary cap jail for the next few years, early picks should be WR, DLine, OT, CB.  If he's the best player left on their board and they think he'll translate to CB in the NFL it wouldn't be my first choice but I wouldn't hate it.  Safeties are cheap enough in FA that even though it's a big need, I'd be disappointed with a Safety in round 1.  

[Aussie Joe]

3 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

If he was a round 1 guy he would have destroyed the competition at the senior bowl. He did not. He had 5 years in college and was only good for 1 of those years when by then he was 2-3 years older and more seasoned than everyone else. He has had a lot of drops. I think he can be a faster Gabe Davis type. Would you use a 1st round pick on Gabe Davis? I like him but not in round 1. To me he's a 2nd rounder

Wasn’t there some rumours that he was ill at the Senior Bowl? He was pretty ordinary on that first day of practice I recall …

Im not as high on him either … might have the “high ceiling “ … but that could be a few years off … move up in the second for him … no problem there if that’s what happens 

[Mikie2times]

3 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Pick someone else or trade down… 

 

So you would take him ?  I’m not knocking him as a player … but just think they might easier get by with a later pick at Safety …then a couple of other positions where that have some need 

I was just curious what you would do is all. He's growing on me. I don't like even a mild reach at WR if we have the ability to add additional picks in round 2 and 3 trading back.

[Aussie Joe]

1 minute ago, Mikie2times said:

I was just curious what you would do is all. He's growing on me. I don't like even a mild reach at WR if we have the ability to add additional picks in round 2 and 3 trading back.

It really depends on who is left … so hard for me to give a definite answer 

[transplantbillsfan]

14 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

If he was a round 1 guy he would have destroyed the competition at the senior bowl. He did not. He had 5 years in college and was only good for 1 of those years when by then he was 2-3 years older and more seasoned than everyone else. He has had a lot of drops. I think he can be a faster Gabe Davis type. Would you use a 1st round pick on Gabe Davis? I like him but not in round 1. To me he's a 2nd rounder

 

You're using the Senior Bowl as a measuring stick?  He played in the SEC and destroyed his competition at South Carolina in 2023.

 

The one-year-wonder conversation is more nuanced.  There were a lot of circumstances involved with that, including a late shift to the position and a motorcycle accident, among other things.

 

I'm not advocating a trade up.  But I'd be happy with him at 28.

[JESSEFEFFER]

1 hour ago, KDIGGZ said:

He lost me with Xavier Leggette as round 1 and the 4th receiver on the board over Brian Thomas Jr. I've watched a lot of these and nobody has ever been that high on Leggette. It reminds me of when Chris Trepasso had Mason Rudolph as his QB1 and said he would be the next Marino. I think these guys try to be controversial on purpose so if it pans out then they look smart 

He had D K Metcalf at the top of round 1 his draft year also.  That's him being true to his evaluation, imo.  Pick a combo block, hit a seam, break an arm tackle and go.  May be a great KO return guy in the new format.

 

 

Edited April 23 by JESSEFEFFER

[NeverOutNick]

46 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

 

Can I ask you guys why you think Xavier Leggette is so clearly not a 1st rounder?

I'm finishing up my annual WR rankings and tiers. But this is my take on Legette:

 

Xavier Legette – Physical not just as a player but a specimen. I get why people compare him to DK Metcalf because he looks imposing, has great body control and he’s deceptively fast. My question is for a dude who is fast why doesn’t he get separation? Why so many 50/50 jump balls. He can’t physically dominate NFL corners like he did this last year in college. He’s not a good route runner, he pushes off too much and it worries me that this was his only year of production in college. He fights for every yard, and I love the toughness/no fear attitude every play. I have a feeling he’d be a great teammate and fan favorite but he’s not a #1 WR on any team. He’s a good 2nd or 3rd option on a team that has a superstar first option.

 

My Bills take: I truly hope he’s not the guy for Buffalo as he doesn’t bring anything more to what Josh Allen needs at the WR position. He'd be a jag that can't get separation and josh has to hope he can just make the spectacular catch in tight coverage. We need a true #1 who can win early and often

[Warriorspikes51]

2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

You're using the Senior Bowl as a measuring stick?  He played in the SEC and destroyed his competition at South Carolina in 2023.

 

The one-year-wonder conversation is more nuanced.  There were a lot of circumstances involved with that, including a late shift to the position and a motorcycle accident, among other things.

 

I'm not advocating a trade up.  But I'd be happy with him at 28.

 

I love XL

 

 

[Paul Costa]

37 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Who wants the Bills to take Dejean at 28 … even if he is the best player left on the board ? 

 

Not me… not this year …

I do. He would be a great pick at 28.

[DCOrange]

17 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Wasn’t there some rumours that he was ill at the Senior Bowl? He was pretty ordinary on that first day of practice I recall …

Im not as high on him either … might have the “high ceiling “ … but that could be a few years off … move up in the second for him … no problem there if that’s what happens 

Think it was an ankle injury if I remember right and he pulled out after the second practice. 

12 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

You're using the Senior Bowl as a measuring stick?  He played in the SEC and destroyed his competition at South Carolina in 2023.

 

The one-year-wonder conversation is more nuanced.  There were a lot of circumstances involved with that, including a late shift to the position and a motorcycle accident, among other things.

 

I'm not advocating a trade up.  But I'd be happy with him at 28.

This is a myth. He played WR basically his entire high school career. 

[Aussie Joe]

Just now, DCOrange said:

Think it was an ankle injury if I remember right and he pulled out after the second practice. 

Ok … the story was after the second practice that his agent told him “he has done enough so leave town “…

[DCOrange]

1 minute ago, Aussie Joe said:

Ok … the story was after the second practice that his agent told him “he has done enough so leave town “…

Yeah it’s entirely possible they just felt good enough with how day 2 went and didn’t want him to mess anything up from there but we’ll never know for sure. 

[Nephilim17]

Marino made some interesting points:

 

Negative: A lot of third-round value, in his estimation and he put in the work, but no third round pick.
Positive: The distribution of talent aligns a lot with Bills needs.
Board-meltdown: He doesn't like a lot of edge rushers after the first round so given the depth of WR in this class, he can see the reasoning behind taking an edge guy in the first and WR later.

Here is his board. It's notable not for particular names but to see the depth, or lack thereof, at certain positions and what kind of depth of round value for each position.

 

If you have a hard time reading it, dark blue is top of round 1, light blue is bottom half of round one, green is round 2, yellow is round 3, orange round 4/5 and red is round 6/7.

 

Edited April 23 by Nephilim17

[Logic]

Just came here to say that Xavier Legette being ranked as a "back half of round 1 player" is not at all controversial, shocking, or worthy of scorn.

Scouts are higher on him than the draft community.

We all become completely certain of things because the draft analysis community tells us these things over and over and over again and we take it as gospel. But year after year after year, they're wrong about a lot of things.

Remember the year Ryan Nassib came out and many had him mocked in the first round? Scores and scores of mock drafts had him as a 1st round or, at worst, 2nd round player. He went in the 4th.

That's just one random example, but there are TONS of them.

So just because the mock draft industry told you that Legette won't go at, say, pick 22, doesn't mean he won't. Just because they say Brian Thomas Jr is absolutely the 4th best WR prospect doesn't mean they're right.

Furthermore, if "only one year of notable production in college" is the reason we're writing Legette off, then lets please also write off Brian Thomas Jr and Adonai Mitchell and the majority of the other good WR prospects, please and thank you. There are a lot of one-year-wonders this year, and not all of them even have the medical justifications that Legette has.

Dude's gonna be a baller. Watch.

Edited April 23 by Logic

[LEBills]

29 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

You're using the Senior Bowl as a measuring stick?  He played in the SEC and destroyed his competition at South Carolina in 2023.

 

The one-year-wonder conversation is more nuanced.  There were a lot of circumstances involved with that, including a late shift to the position and a motorcycle accident, among other things.

 

I'm not advocating a trade up.  But I'd be happy with him at 28.

Did he though? His best games came against the a freshman corner at UNC, a backup corner and safety at Georgia, Furman, 1-7 in SEC play MSU, 3-5 Florida, Jacksonville State, 0-8 Vanderbilt. His best game was probably against 3-5 Kentucky when he went one on one against Andru Phillips who is a good player. 

 

He is pretty good downfield when he can be more physical than the other player and push off or jump over them. He takes a lot of steps to turn those vertical routes and transition them into a comeback or dig. He also is pretty good at running crossers. 

 

Watching all of his targets really disappointed me. He was not good at screens or end arounds, regularly getting tackles one on one by everyone including players from Furman, etc. He didn’t run his agilities and you can see why as him getting tackled one on one looks to be from him not being able to dodge players laterally or run through tacklers at his feet. He is very fast when he gets a runway to run a straight line 
 

For a five year player, his route running is so under developed which makes you wonder how long it will take him to develop effective counters to corners that take away his verticals. Watching Nate Wiggins mirror him and Legette not having any counter was disappointing.

 

To me, he is a one dimensional player at the moment. You can send him vertical or have him run a crosser but that is not a first round player. Even those hoping he could be the second coming of DK: he is smaller, slower and does not stack vertically like DK did. I think he is a later day 2 guy based on taking a shot on measurables def not day 1, imo.

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, Adam727 said:

Only if they think he's a starting CB in the NFL.  The Bills are in salary cap jail for the next few years, early picks should be WR, DLine, OT, CB.  If he's the best player left on their board and they think he'll translate to CB in the NFL it wouldn't be my first choice but I wouldn't hate it.  Safeties are cheap enough in FA that even though it's a big need, I'd be disappointed with a Safety in round 1.  

 

No we aren't... our salary cap situation is at its lowest this offseason and will get significantly better from here on out.

56 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

This is a myth. He played WR basically his entire high school career. 

 

He played QB as a Senior

[Logic]

https://www.nfl.com/news/2024-nfl-draft-four-potential-surprise-first-rounders

List of potential surprise 1st round players. Guess who's on it?

[Buddy Hix]

Joe is such a great listen. I bought his Go Bills book, and also enjoyed it a lot.

[3rdand12]

1 hour ago, Aussie Joe said:

Who wants the Bills to take Dejean at 28 … even if he is the best player left on the board ? 

 

Not me… not this year …

Thats a damned tough question for the Bills in particular

Glad i dont make those decisions !

But if Bills sit at 28 ? .... Not the biggest need , but a long term need.

I dont think they will unless it just happens as the draft rolls on

But they have targets and are staring at WRs.

if thats how it fell ? I would be cool with it. from what I have read

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

He lost me with Xavier Leggette as round 1 and the 4th receiver on the board over Brian Thomas Jr. I've watched a lot of these and nobody has ever been that high on Leggette. It reminds me of when Chris Trepasso had Mason Rudolph as his QB1 and said he would be the next Marino. I think these guys try to be controversial on purpose so if it pans out then they look smart 

 

Yeah, I am pretty skeptical he goes first round.  Thomas is clear WR4 for me, and I think McConkey, Mitchell, Franklin, and Worthy are gonna likely go (in no particular order) before him.  Then, again in on particular order, you still have Coleman, Pearsall, Wilson, Corley, Polk (who I am hearing is one of the drafts biggest risers leading up to Thursday), McMillan, etc who are all going to have a good shot at going round 2 as well along with Legette.  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

Who wants the Bills to take Dejean at 28 … even if he is the best player left on the board ? 

 

Not me… not this year …

 

I do. Take Dejean and grab best available WR in round 2. If possible pull of small trade up and grab McConkey, Legette or Franklin. Coming away with Dejean and one of those three WR's would be a home run draft IMO. 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

Just came here to say that Xavier Legette being ranked as a "back half of round 1 player" is not at all controversial, shocking, or worthy of scorn.

Scouts are higher on him than the draft community.

We all become completely certain of things because the draft analysis community tells us these things over and over and over again and we take it as gospel. But year after year after year, they're wrong about a lot of things.

Remember the year Ryan Nassib came out and many had him mocked in the first round? Scores and scores of mock drafts had him as a 1st round or, at worst, 2nd round player. He went in the 4th.

That's just one random example, but there are TONS of them.

So just because the mock draft industry told you that Legette won't go at, say, pick 22, doesn't mean he won't. Just because they say Brian Thomas Jr is absolutely the 4th best WR prospect doesn't mean they're right.

Furthermore, if "only one year of notable production in college" is the reason we're writing Legette off, then lets please also write off Brian Thomas Jr and Adonai Mitchell and the majority of the other good WR prospects, please and thank you. There are a lot of one-year-wonders this year, and not all of them even have the medical justifications that Legette has.

Dude's gonna be a baller. Watch.

 

I agree with your overall point...but here is a counter point too:  Every year there are guys who are big and run fast in shorts at the combine who get over drafted over the potential of what that means despite not having the college resume to support the draft slot.  

 

Legette has sky high potential, but he also has probably the most risk of the guys expected to go in first 2 rounds.  I don't think he is ready to be a complete WR1 at the next level and has a lot to work on that could take a couple seasons before you know what you have in him long term.  Which is why I like some other guys in the first over him.  

 

My stance is...I won't hate the pick if he is who we take in the first, his potential is still exciting...but I will be cautiously optimistic on year 1 expectations to say the least.  I would feel more comfortable taking him in the 2nd though, again, he does have elite potential, it is just that he also proabably has the highest bust risk too.  

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

Who wants the Bills to take Dejean at 28 … even if he is the best player left on the board ? 

 

Not me… not this year …

 

Yeah Joe has been banging the drum for taking a non-WR. He has called Chop Robinson, Cooper Dejean, and Johnny Newton "sprint to the podium" picks. He makes a common draftnik mistake of looking at the draft in a vacuum where the goal is to make the best singular pick irrespective of any context. Of course in reality the draft is entirely context-driven. Certain positions inherently have more value. Certain teams have not invested in certain positions to the degree that they should. A lot of draftniks, Joe included, have made this realization in regard to RBs, but have yet to make the leap from that to a wider philosophy that extends to every position in some fashion. From a bird's eye view taking a CB/safety hybrid in the 1st round would of course be a terrible decision for the Bills, but he is looking at it from just the standpoint of his own personal draft grades. It's the definition of missing the forest for the trees.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

2 hours ago, NeverOutNick said:

I'm finishing up my annual WR rankings and tiers. But this is my take on Legette:

 

Xavier Legette – Physical not just as a player but a specimen. I get why people compare him to DK Metcalf because he looks imposing, has great body control and he’s deceptively fast. My question is for a dude who is fast why doesn’t he get separation? Why so many 50/50 jump balls. He can’t physically dominate NFL corners like he did this last year in college. He’s not a good route runner, he pushes off too much and it worries me that this was his only year of production in college. He fights for every yard, and I love the toughness/no fear attitude every play. I have a feeling he’d be a great teammate and fan favorite but he’s not a #1 WR on any team. He’s a good 2nd or 3rd option on a team that has a superstar first option.

 

My Bills take: I truly hope he’s not the guy for Buffalo as he doesn’t bring anything more to what Josh Allen needs at the WR position. He'd be a jag that can't get separation and josh has to hope he can just make the spectacular catch in tight coverage. We need a true #1 who can win early and often

I’ll tell you why. He’s slow early in his routes and has no route deception. You watch all these other WRs with the crossover, slow down, speed up route deception. Legette just runs same speed. NFL CBs will eat him up early in his career. They know what he’s doing every route.

 

Also he’s a slow accelerator, build up speed guy. He’s not going to win his routes at the next level. He’ll be a good vertical route jump ball guy. I don’t see a WR1 or even a WR2.

Edited April 24 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Logic]

14 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I agree with your overall point...but here is a counter point too:  Every year there are guys who are big and run fast in shorts at the combine who get over drafted over the potential of what that means despite not having the college resume to support the draft slot.  

 

Legette has sky high potential, but he also has probably the most risk of the guys expected to go in first 2 rounds.  I don't think he is ready to be a complete WR1 at the next level and has a lot to work on that could take a couple seasons before you know what you have in him long term.  Which is why I like some other guys in the first over him.  

 

My stance is...I won't hate the pick if he is who we take in the first, his potential is still exciting...but I will be cautiously optimistic on year 1 expectations to say the least.  I would feel more comfortable taking him in the 2nd though, again, he does have elite potential, it is just that he also proabably has the highest bust risk too.  

Thanks for this.

I don't view Legette as having the highest bust risk at all.

I think Adonai Mitchell has a far higher risk of busting than Legette.

Legette suffered through injuries, motorcycle accident, etc, all throughout college. When finally healthy, he posted 1200+ yards and 7 TDs in the SEC. He is known to have an exceptional work ethic.

Mitchell's career BEST year saw him post 845 yards and 11 TDs. He doesn't have the injuries to fall back on that Legette had, either. And whereas Legette's work ethic is lauded, the word on Mitchell is that he takes plays off when the ball isn't coming his way.

Give me the guy who was hurt a bunch, but who -- when healthy -- put together an excellent year of production the SEC over the guy who, despite having all-world measurables, never posted even 850 yards receiving in a given season.

I could even argue that I feel Brian Thomas Jr has a higher bust potential than Legette, but there's no need to open that can of worms, too.

At the end of the day, I think it's all personal preference and "Beauty in the eye of the beholder". We've all talked circles around these prospects for three months. Time for the draft to just get here, so that we can see how NFL teams feel about these guys.


 

[BeastMaster]

2 hours ago, NeverOutNick said:

I was actually excited to watch until you told me this. That’s laughable and not worth my time 

Sounds like you have bought into the BTJ hype...which is laughable to me

 

Both players have some serious question marks about their game, and the argument could be made that either is a better or worse choice than the other