Who should the Bills draft at #58? - TSW Mock Draft 2.0

[Logic]

8 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Poll selections are updated to the top 6.  
 

If your pick was removed, please vote again

Do you view any of the safeties available as more of FS to replace Hyde?

Kinchens seems like the cleanest projection to free safety, but I do agree that it seems too early to pick him here, based on his athletic limitations. 

If the Bills could get a Bullard/Bullock/Bishop here and then a Kinchens later on -- though I have no idea whether they'd double dip at safety -- that might be the most deal outcome. Let a new safety duo up to grow together for the next four years.

I'll also admit to being completely amateur at this, and having a fairly rudimentary knowledge of the draftable players and the minutiae of the Bills defensive scheme. I'm no football savant. Just a dude on a message board with opinions based on limited information.

Edited April 15 by Logic

[MasterStrategist]

Kam Kinchens makes alot of sense.  Playmaker, College FB coach on staff, could be a starting FS immediately.

 

Best thing is we brought in a college DB coach.  Who will be very familiar with players not only on Miami, but others in college football.

 

Rd 2 pick needs to be a starter and impact player, and this checks the box.  We need a FS with range and playmaking ability.  Kam also brings position flex, dropping into the box/blitzing, and can drop down into the slot.  His 40 time isn't indicative of his on field instincts/playing speed

[BuffaloBillyG]

15 minutes ago, Virgil said:

I’d be fine with Saumataia if he could start at RG this season. Then, depending on how he pans out, kick him out out RT if we lose Brown.  

Curious why you say RG? I would figure you see Torrence moving to LG in that scenario? Thought he looked good at RG next to Brown. 

[Victory Formation]

Troy Franklin and Javon Bullard would not be a bad reality for Buffalo. I could live with that. Take Luke McCaffrey RD4 and double down on receiver and we’re golden.

[Aussie Joe]

If these were the actual choices on the day I would not be happy …

[Kirby Jackson]

2 hours ago, H2o said:

The way this draft has played out has not gone well for the Bills.

This ^^
 

If you want to go back, you need to be careful. This mock is not ideal for the Bills. 

[NeverOutNick]

Hope the bills draft board doesn’t look like this one that’s for sure lol

[Brandon]

19 minutes ago, TBBills Fan said:

So trade back wasn't really ideal 

 

It was too far.  Ideally,  you wouldn't trade down more spots than there are guys acceptable to draft while at 28.  That guarantees at least one will be there.   

 

I don't think I'd drop below Washington at 36 on the first trade down and even that is a bit more risky than I'd like. 

[DrDawkinstein]

If anything, this exercise has only fueled my desire to do something big like trade up to 6 for Nabers.

[NeverOutNick]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Out of this list I'm taking Kingsley Suamataia. This draft is strong at OT so we should try to spend a top 100 pick on one if possible. He also jumps out as someone that probably could have gone 20 picks higher and no one would have batted an eye. He is raw but has great physical traits (9.35 RAS score) and doesn't have to be rushed into a starting role. Ideally he would take over for Spencer Brown in 2025, meaning we would get a comp pick back for Brown and spend his cap space on more meaningful positions. Theoretically it's a good pick for value and long term team building.

If we’re not going with any of the many good WRs still available (Tez, Wilson, Polk, Burton, Rice), then yes we need to go BPA and take Suamataia. No need to spend high draft capital on safety. It’s one of the cheapest positions to get in free agency. Draft premium positions early and often and this class is loaded with WR and Olinemen (expensive positions to replace)

[MrEpsYtown]

22 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

If these were the actual choices on the day I would not be happy …

We actually moved up two picks here. This gives us an idea of what is available at 60. If we wait on a WR it’s like polk, Tez Walker and Roman Wilson left. If up wait for OL, DL whatever, it’s pretty slim. This is a weak draft. 

[NeverOutNick]

13 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

If anything, this exercise has only fueled my desire to do something big like trade up to 6 for Nabers.

If one of the top 3 WRs drops out of the top 10 and it only costs us next years first rounder on top of pick 28 to get him then I’m definitely on board. I don’t want to give up any draft equity in this years class, it’s too good

[Virgil]

46 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Curious why you say RG? I would figure you see Torrence moving to LG in that scenario? Thought he looked good at RG next to Brown. 

Just where McGovern was.  No real thought beyond that 

[mrags]

Much would have rather tried to trade uo for Sweat here. Wouldn’t have taken much to go up a few spots. It’s a shame really. 
 

with the group of guys left I’d much rather double dip on WR at this point and go with Polk here. If we can’t add him to this list I’d say Kinchens, Bishop, or Bullard probably the best bet.

[gonzo1105]

Cole Bishop is better than Javon Bullard, Yea I said it.

[Big Blitz]

3 hours ago, H2o said:

The way this draft has played out has not gone well for the Bills.

 

Yea I’m no longer good with trading back - too far.  
 

But I’m reaching a decision on what I’d do and who I’d pick.   

[Aussie Joe]

52 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

We actually moved up two picks here. This gives us an idea of what is available at 60. If we wait on a WR it’s like polk, Tez Walker and Roman Wilson left. If up wait for OL, DL whatever, it’s pretty slim. This is a weak draft. 

I have said before that the draft is weak at the end of the second …. Polk might be ok here …not the other two at 60…

 

I’m a fan for a move up from 60 way more than 28..

 

I actually think there is good value in rounds 4-5 at OL, S ,CB, RB…

 

 

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Out of this list I'm taking Kingsley Suamataia. This draft is strong at OT so we should try to spend a top 100 pick on one if possible. He also jumps out as someone that probably could have gone 20 picks higher and no one would have batted an eye. He is raw but has great physical traits (9.35 RAS score) and doesn't have to be rushed into a starting role. Ideally he would take over for Spencer Brown in 2025, meaning we would get a comp pick back for Brown and spend his cap space on more meaningful positions. Theoretically it's a good pick for value and long term team building.

 

Agree. I think he is "only" a right tackle. His left tackle film is bad. But I think of that list you draft him, sit him and let Spencer walk (or tag and trade if he has an outstanding year) after the season with the idea that he starts in 2025. It's a save cap space for next year pick essentially.

3 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

Cole Bishop is better than Javon Bullard, Yea I said it.

 

I'd take Jaden Hicks over both of them for the Bills D. 

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Nubin is the best fit for our defense IMO. After him I actually really like Jaden Hicks. He does all the things we ask our safeties to do and I really like the ball skills and IQ. 2nd round feels too

early. 

 

Agree. He is the cleanest projection into our scheme IMO. But I have all of those safeties after Nubin kinda clustered. Bullock is my #2 and is in this kinda range but then I have Hicks, Bishop, Bullard, Demerson-Taylor all sort of together as 3rd round grades. The issue I think is that they will likely all be gone before the end of round 4 when the Bills next go on the clock. 

 

If the Bills want to take a safety here in a scenario like this they should go back into the early 3rd and pick up a future pick or two. 

8 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I went Hall, he is a really good fit. Otherwise I would have gone Patrick Paul. I think he is much better than the BYU tackle. JMO

 

 

He is a potential left tackle so I can see the value argument for that. I have Paul a point higher on my board for that reason alone. Was the Yale kid on the longer shortlist before we started cutting down? I think I like him more than both (although based on less info).

Edited April 15 by GunnerBill

[mrags]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree. I think he is "only" a right tackle. His left tackle film is bad. But I think of that list you draft him, sit him and let Spencer walk (or tag and trade if he has an outstanding year) after the season with the idea that he starts in 2025. It's a save cap space for next year pick essentially.

 

I'd take Jaden Hicks over both of them for the Bills D. 

I was also wondering why Hicks wasn’t on the board. 

[SectionC3]

10 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I suspect he'll win the poll because everyone knows safety is a need. I just personally have no interest in drafting a safety anywhere in the top 75 picks. It's too easy to find good players at that position later in the draft. Especially in McDermott's defense we don't need studs at the position, just smart players that can learn the defense and stick to their zones.

I'm not convinced Hyde is done, either.  And there's still the Simmons one-year option floating around. Completely agree. 

[Buckets]

11 hours ago, H2o said:

The way this draft has played out has not gone well for the Bills.

?????, it hasn't even started.

[nosejob]

10 hours ago, Virgil said:

I’d be fine with Saumataia if he could start at RG this season. Then, depending on how he pans out, kick him out out RT if we lose Brown.  

I don't know about anyone else, but I'm fine with RG and wouldn't mess with it.

 

Btw. IMO, the trade back would be moronic. 13 spots out of the 1st for 88?  I hope that doesn't happen.

Edited April 15 by nosejob

[MrEpsYtown]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree. He is the cleanest projection into our scheme IMO. But I have all of those safeties after Nubin kinda clustered. Bullock is my #2 and is in this kinda range but then I have Hicks, Bishop, Bullard, Demerson-Taylor all sort of together as 3rd round grades. The issue I think is that they will likely all be gone before the end of round 4 when the Bills next go on the clock. 

 

If the Bills want to take a safety here in a scenario like this they should go back into the early 3rd and pick up a future pick or two. 

 

He is a potential left tackle so I can see the value argument for that. I have Paul a point higher on my board for that reason alone. Was the Yale kid on the longer shortlist before we started cutting down? I think I like him more than both (although based on less info).

 

I like Paul better just because he is more polished and experienced. Paul also has a brother in the NFL..I just think it is going to be a smooth transition for him especially because of his pass-blocking acumen. The measurables are very similar. I like both as pure LTs...I feel like the BYU kid is a guard. 

[GunnerBill]

 

12 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

I like Paul better just because he is more polished and experienced. Paul also has a brother in the NFL..I just think it is going to be a smooth transition for him especially because of his pass-blocking acumen. The measurables are very similar. I like both as pure LTs...I feel like the BYU kid is a guard. 

 

It's certainly true that the Yale kid has a bigger jump to make. I haven't watched enough to grade him but the bits I've seen his ceiling is sky high IMO. The BYU kid's RT tape is significantly better than his LT tape. I think he can hold up at right tackle in the league, especially in a zone scheme. I don't think he can play left tackle. He could get by at guard possible, but I don't know if he has the raw power for it and I worry he'd lose in low man wins scenarios inside. I actually think he has some Spencer Brown traits to him and as a 3rd round right tackle only pick he'd make sense. I wouldn't love him here and prefer the Yale kid and Paul but based on the shortlist infront of us he's who I'd pick. 

[H2o]

1 hour ago, Buckets said:

?????, it hasn't even started.

It has definitely started and it has been quite underwhelming. If the first two rounds in this mock are a sign of what would be to come, then it's not looking good. 

[Brandon]

9 minutes ago, H2o said:

It has definitely started and it has been quite underwhelming. If the first two rounds in this mock are a sign of what would be to come, then it's not looking good. 

 

Over many years of following the draft,  one thing I've learned is that the depth always hollows out earlier than it seems like it should.  In this draft,  the WRs, in particular,  will go higher than people think.  

[Virgil]

Poll will close at 12p est

[MrEpsYtown]

22 minutes ago, H2o said:

It has definitely started and it has been quite underwhelming. If the first two rounds in this mock are a sign of what would be to come, then it's not looking good. 

 

Virgil said it a couple of times but this was version 2. AD Mitchell won the vote in V1 and in V2 until we took him off the board. So if you like AD Mitchell, it looks like we are in good shape. This was an alternative exercise, and if AD Mitchell is gone or the Bills don't like him, this is how it may actually play out, though they will probably just take Franklin at 28 and would not trade down for the extra third-rounder. I'm in the trade-up for Thomas or just draft Mitchell camp. 

 

But if you want a difference-making receiver and you don't like AD Mitchell, I think you have to try to trade up. 

[section122]

19 minutes ago, Brandon said:

 

Over many years of following the draft,  one thing I've learned is that the depth always hollows out earlier than it seems like it should.  In this draft,  the WRs, in particular,  will go higher than people think.  

 

I actually think the opposite.  Since this is a Bills fan site, the WRs in this draft are going much earlier than I believe they will in the real draft.  The GM for the team drafting in front of the Bills admitted to picking Legette just so he wasn't an option for the Bills.  The trade back almost worked perfectly as Legette was the 2nd leading vote getter in both v1 and v2.  There is a dead spot in round 1 where from picks 11-28 only really the Jags look like a team that may take a wr.

[ExWNYer]

Of the current options in the poll, Suamataia represents the best value, IMO. I would have voted Hall, were he a 1-technique, but he's more of a 3 or 5. I would not take a safety here at all.

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, section122 said:

 

I actually think the opposite.  Since this is a Bills fan site, the WRs in this draft are going much earlier than I believe they will in the real draft.  The GM for the team drafting in front of the Bills admitted to picking Legette just so he wasn't an option for the Bills.  The trade back almost worked perfectly as Legette was the 2nd leading vote getter in both v1 and v2.  There is a dead spot in round 1 where from picks 11-28 only really the Jags look like a team that may take a wr.

 

There is a dead spot in round 1 - I agree. I see a lot more tackles there than WRs. However, in round 2 I think a lot of receivers go. Would not be shocked if almost a 3rd of the round was receiver. 5/6 in round one. 8/9 in round two. 

[H2o]

4 minutes ago, Brandon said:

 

Over many years of following the draft,  one thing I've learned is that the depth always hollows out earlier than it seems like it should.  In this draft,  the WRs, in particular,  will go higher than people think.  

Agreed. Even though it is the deepest WR draft in years, teams will want to get their "guy" before anyone else does. Imo, the tiers break down as follows.

 

1: MHJ, Nabers, Odunze

2: Thomas, Legette, Mitchell, Worthy (though Worthy scares me a bit because of John Ross)

3: Coleman, McConkey, Franklin, Walker, Polk, Pearsall, Burton, Wilson, Baker

 

Some would argue Franklin, Coleman, and possibly McConkey should fall into that 2nd tier, but this is just how I see it. We need someone from those first two tiers for this offense. And it's not inconceivable to think that a majority could be gone by the 3rd Round, depending on what teams are truly looking for and if a couple of picks create a run on the position. I don't think we can wait until the end of the 2nd to address WR and think we're going to get an impact guy at that point. Could be 7 WR's in the 1st and I think the real run will be in the 2nd as people look to grab what they feel are the rest of the upper echelon WR's. Once you start getting into the 3rd, it will be guys left like maybe Burton, Pearsall, Baker, Brenden Rice, Jalen McMillan, Jamari Thrash, Johnny Wilson, and Malachi Corley. Doubling up with our first 4th would be ideal, after getting one from the top two tiers. 

[Brandon]

10 minutes ago, section122 said:

 

I actually think the opposite.  Since this is a Bills fan site, the WRs in this draft are going much earlier than I believe they will in the real draft.  The GM for the team drafting in front of the Bills admitted to picking Legette just so he wasn't an option for the Bills.  The trade back almost worked perfectly as Legette was the 2nd leading vote getter in both v1 and v2.  There is a dead spot in round 1 where from picks 11-28 only really the Jags look like a team that may take a wr.

 

Yeah,  I realize things like that happen in these mock drafts where a few people will try to spike the board for or against whatever they want their team to do.  That being said,  I do think the run on WRs will begin during those last few picks of R1 and that it'll thin out in a hurry into the middle parts of R2.  There won't be much left at 60. 

 

I'm also a little worried that Miami may start that run by taking Xavier Worthy at 21.  Might see one or two more go by 28 if that happens. 

[MrEpsYtown]

47 minutes ago, H2o said:

Agreed. Even though it is the deepest WR draft in years, teams will want to get their "guy" before anyone else does. Imo, the tiers break down as follows.

 

1: MHJ, Nabers, Odunze

2: Thomas, Legette, Mitchell, Worthy (though Worthy scares me a bit because of John Ross)

3: Coleman, McConkey, Franklin, Walker, Polk, Pearsall, Burton, Wilson, Baker

 

Some would argue Franklin, Coleman, and possibly McConkey should fall into that 2nd tier, but this is just how I see it. We need someone from those first two tiers for this offense. And it's not inconceivable to think that a majority could be gone by the 3rd Round, depending on what teams are truly looking for and if a couple of picks create a run on the position. I don't think we can wait until the end of the 2nd to address WR and think we're going to get an impact guy at that point. Could be 7 WR's in the 1st and I think the real run will be in the 2nd as people look to grab what they feel are the rest of the upper echelon WR's. Once you start getting into the 3rd, it will be guys left like maybe Burton, Pearsall, Baker, Brenden Rice, Jalen McMillan, Jamari Thrash, Johnny Wilson, and Malachi Corley. Doubling up with our first 4th would be ideal, after getting one from the top two tiers. 

 

All great points! 

 

I think Thomas is in his own tier. Then Mitchell and Worthy. 

 

1: MHJ, Nabers, Odunze

2: Thomas

3: Mitchell, Worthy

4: Leggette, McConkey, Franklin, Coleman - (these feel like back end round 1 early round two)

5: Walker, Polk, Pearsall, Burton, Wilson, Baker etc etc. (late two and beyond)

 

I think if you want Thomas it's probably a trade-up. Then it's whatever your flavor is. I do think Mitchell and Worthy are first-rounders. I don't love Worthy, but there is no way the NFL brain trust is going to let the fastest player ever go in round two. 

 

I think we are going to have our pick between tier 3-4. 

 

Edited April 15 by MrEpsYtown

[NewEra]

I’d take ja’lynn Polk 😉 

[RyanC883]

is WR Polk available.  I think that would be my pref, but barring that, one of the safeties.  Some good options for that here.  

[Irv]

Best DB or Safety available.  Also bring back Hyde.  

[DrDawkinstein]

10 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

is WR Polk available.  I think that would be my pref, but barring that, one of the safeties.  Some good options for that here.  

 

Even after taking a WR (Franklin) roughly 15 picks earlier?

[MasterStrategist]

1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

All great points! 

 

I think Thomas is in his own tier. Then Mitchell and Worthy. 

 

1: MHJ, Nabers, Odunze

2: Thomas

3: Mitchell, Worthy

4: Leggette, McConkey, Franklin, Coleman - (these feel like back end round 1 early round two)

5: Walker, Polk, Pearsall, Burton, Wilson, Baker etc etc. (late two and beyond)

 

I think if you want Thomas it's probably a trade-up. Then it's whatever your flavor is. I do think Mitchell and Worthy are first-rounders. I don't love Worthy, but there is no way the NFL brain trust is going to let the fastest player ever go in round two. 

 

I think we are going to have our pick between tier 3-4. 

 

These are my exact thoughts as well, excellent write up.

 

Realistically, I see one of the Tier 3 guys being there at our pick, and quite possible 1 of the tier 4 guys is gone (some team falls in love with any of these guys).

 

I prefer we don't trade back, as this scenario (V2) played out.  I think we stand a chance of losing out on a Tier3 player (given that's how Beane assess them), or missing out on our top tier 4 guy.  

 

Rd 2, I'm coming around to the realization that we're likely not double dipping at WR (at least not this soon).  Rather S, OL, or DL.  I see safety as the most immediate impactful position/most upgradable and we certainly need a better 3rd safety at minimum.

 

I also prefer we trade next years 2nd (minn pick), to get into Rd 3 /hoping in the top 10 of round.  And grab a DT 3tech, either Ruke or Maason.  Maason, biggest question is if he regains in pre injury form, both guys would be solid options behind Ed.

 

4th+, address another WR, CB (I think Devonshire is our guy if there in the 6th), Rb, and OL depth.