Superstar WR? The Big Three

[FireChans]

25 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

How many Super Bowls did generational talents of Moss, Megatron, Fitzgerald, and Julio win?  

 

And in that draft, Jeudy, Lambn, and Ruggs  were considered some of the best WR's to come out in a while and that was considered one of the best WR drafts heading into it in recent times with them being in a class of their own.  More importantly, people wanted to mortgage a ton of picks to go get one, even more than we paid for Diggs...which would have been a mistake when none of them were as good as the guys still on the board at our original pick nor as good as Diggs was for us the past 4 years.

 

Tond Mandarich was considered maybe the greatest prospect of all time of almost any position like he was destined for the HOF.  He was not that in the NFL. I can think of a long list of "generational" talents in drafts that either went on to have solid, mediocre, or flat out bust careers.  It isn't a sure thing.  

How many Super Bowls did Trent Williams win?

 

Is he not valuable because generational LT’s haven’t won Super Bowls?

[Alphadawg7]

20 minutes ago, FireChans said:

How many Super Bowls did Trent Williams win?

 

Is he not valuable because generational LT’s haven’t won Super Bowls?

Doesn’t have anything to do with the point of what I said about spending a lot of assets to get a WR.  But you know that already cuz we have discussed it multiple times now in multiple threads.  
 

The comment was about just because they are generational talents at WR doesn’t mean it’s worth weakening the roster elsewhere to go get one.  And these are unproven “generational talents”.  

Edited April 12 by Alphadawg7

[transplantbillsfan]

Matt Ryan ain't Josh Allen, first of all.

 

Second of all, the Falcons blew that Super Bowl. And getting to the NFC Conference Championship game in Julio's 2nd year is a success to me.

 

The model is Mahomes. Dude had 2 HOFers for his first 4 years as he figured things out. Still had Kelce the last 2 years.

 

I think Josh deserves 2 Elite weapons for once in his career. We can hope Kincaid gets there. Beane might try to outsmart the room and get Legette/Mitchell/McConkey/Worthy/etc.... but is there seriously anyone who would object to trading away our 1st & 4th this year, 1st next year, and swapping 60 with 75 this year to jump up to 9 for Chicago's pick to get Odunze???

 

That was Joe Marino's massive trade up proposal on his podcast today. He didn't directly say it but he usually uses the PFF mock simulator, so I assume those values are about right... and if you think back to the Chiefs trading up for Mahomes with the Bills I. 2018, that's in the ballpark.

 

That would still leave us with 8 picks this year (a 3rd, a 4th, 3 5ths, 2 6ths & a 7th) and 8 picks next year (two 2nds, a 3rd, two 4ths, a 5th, a 6th, a 7th)...

 

Plus next year we'll have CAP space to play with. The Falcons had the 2nd worst CAP situation in the NFL as the 2012 season (Julio's 2nd season) started. They weren't much better the following year. They also had 6 total picks in 2011 and 2012.

 

The 2024 Bills wouldn't be anything like the 2011 Atlanta Falcons. 4 more draft picks. A better QB. More CAP space.

 

I want us to trade up for 1 of the Big 3. I'll be fine if it doesn’t happen and I think Josh Allen will elevate whatever WR(s) we get from the next tier(s), but I think if this team really wants to practice what it preaches and not force Josh to be Superman all the time, we need at least one HOF talent guy. I don't even know if Diggs is getting a Gold jacket. I do know that he should have stuck around in Buffalo if he wanted one, because the QB is largely determinant in that respect. See Kelce and Hill for reference.

[NoSaint]

6 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

How many Super Bowls did generational talents of Moss, Megatron, Fitzgerald, and Julio win?  

 

And in that draft, Jeudy, Lambn, and Ruggs  were considered some of the best WR's to come out in a while and that was considered one of the best WR drafts heading into it in recent times with them being in a class of their own.  More importantly, people wanted to mortgage a ton of picks to go get one, even more than we paid for Diggs...which would have been a mistake when none of them were as good as the guys still on the board at our original pick nor as good as Diggs was for us the past 4 years.

 

Tond Mandarich was considered maybe the greatest prospect of all time of almost any position like he was destined for the HOF.  He was not that in the NFL. I can think of a long list of "generational" talents in drafts that either went on to have solid, mediocre, or flat out bust careers.  It isn't a sure thing.  

you are starting to blend eras, and commentary in ways that aren’t super productive for anyone. 
 

To how these guys are seen objectively - nabers for instance is rated by nextgen stats at a 92 and is universally expected to be gone by 6 while ruggs was an 87 and went 12th. As I was saying, there’s a little gap. 
 

baker mayfield and Andrew luck were both well liked qbs in their respective drafts but in trying to grade our guys if you think you have a true andrew luck prospect you probably would lean on those next cut of elite qb prospects as comparable and not simply any and all “first qb off the board” types 

 

also if nabers brings us an undefeated season SIGN ME UP. That moss and Julio happened to land on noteworthy Super Bowl losing teams doesn’t lead me to believe elite wrs can’t win. 

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, njbuff said:

Well, just my opinion.

 

I think it is Josh Allen's time to take over the reigns of this team and to me, he doesn't need elite weapons. He simply needs receivers who can hang onto the balls most importantly.

 

Also of importance is being able to fill out the roster. The Bills need depth at almost every position, with starting potential, and the best way to do that is to trade down and acquire multiple picks, ala what SF did in the 1986 draft (look up that draft to see what I mean).

 

Beane's a big baller though and I wouldn't be surprised if he is in love with getting his hands on Nabers, MHJ or Odunze for Josh Allen. 

 

 

Josh has had the reins for two or three years.

 

Agreed he doesn't need elite weapons. They need a good team without major holes and with Josh Allen and they've got a shot every year.

 

 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Matt Ryan ain't Josh Allen, first of all.

 

Second of all, the Falcons blew that Super Bowl. And getting to the NFC Conference Championship game in Julio's 2nd year is a success to me.

 

The model is Mahomes. Dude had 2 HOFers for his first 4 years as he figured things out. Still had Kelce the last 2 years.

 

I think Josh deserves 2 Elite weapons for once in his career. We can hope Kincaid gets there. Beane might try to outsmart the room and get Legette/Mitchell/McConkey/Worthy/etc.... but is there seriously anyone who would object to trading away our 1st & 4th this year, 1st next year, and swapping 60 with 75 this year to jump up to 9 for Chicago's pick to get Odunze???

 

That was Joe Marino's massive trade up proposal on his podcast today. He didn't directly say it but he usually uses the PFF mock simulator, so I assume those values are about right... and if you think back to the Chiefs trading up for Mahomes with the Bills I. 2018, that's in the ballpark.

 

That would still leave us with 8 picks this year (a 3rd, a 4th, 3 5ths, 2 6ths & a 7th) and 8 picks next year (two 2nds, a 3rd, two 4ths, a 5th, a 6th, a 7th)...

 

Plus next year we'll have CAP space to play with. The Falcons had the 2nd worst CAP situation in the NFL as the 2012 season (Julio's 2nd season) started. They weren't much better the following year. They also had 6 total picks in 2011 and 2012.

 

The 2024 Bills wouldn't be anything like the 2011 Atlanta Falcons. 4 more draft picks. A better QB. More CAP space.

 

I want us to trade up for 1 of the Big 3. I'll be fine if it doesn’t happen and I think Josh Allen will elevate whatever WR(s) we get from the next tier(s), but I think if this team really wants to practice what it preaches and not force Josh to be Superman all the time, we need at least one HOF talent guy. I don't even know if Diggs is getting a Gold jacket. I do know that he should have stuck around in Buffalo if he wanted one, because the QB is largely determinant in that respect. See Kelce and Hill for reference.

 

 

Matt Ryan and Pat Mahomes are BOTH the models. Neither one won a Super Bowl with any top ten WR on his roster. Both teach the same thing, though from opposite directions.

 

Ryan teaches that even having an absolutely sensational WR on the team guarantees nothing and in fact led to far more losing than winning. Mahomes teaches that you can win SBs without blowing huge resources on WRs. Didn't have a top ten pick or even a first round pick at WR on any of those SB rosters.

 

Josh doesn't "deserve 2 elite weapons." He deserves far more than that. He deserves a team around him that can win a Super Bowl. History shows that you do that with a good roster and that you don't need elite weapons.

 

Another thing Josh deserves is for his team NOT to use a strategy that has worked out and produced SB winners an extremely small percentage of the time. If we had a top ten pick, one of the top three WRs would probably be a good move. Trading major resources away to get into the top ten for a receiver, though, is dumb. Particularly in a year with great depth in talented WRs. It would lower our chances of success.

 

Massey-Thaler and all the academic studies will tell you the same thing even if you refuse to look at what history tells you about SB winners and how they've used draft picks on bringing in WRs.

 

 

Edited April 12 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, NoSaint said:

you are starting to blend eras, and commentary in ways that aren’t super productive for anyone. 
 

To how these guys are seen objectively - nabers for instance is rated by nextgen stats at a 92 and is universally expected to be gone by 6 while ruggs was an 87 and went 12th. As I was saying, there’s a little gap. 
 

baker mayfield and Andrew luck were both well liked qbs in their respective drafts but in trying to grade our guys if you think you have a true andrew luck prospect you probably would lean on those next cut of elite qb prospects as comparable and not simply any and all “first qb off the board” types 

 

also if nabers brings us an undefeated season SIGN ME UP. That moss and Julio happened to land on noteworthy Super Bowl losing teams doesn’t lead me to believe elite wrs can’t win. 

 

 

What's unproductive about studying EVERY era of football to learn from them? Nothing that I can see, particularly because on this issue, every era tells you the same thing.

 

And what would make you think Nabers would bring us an undefeated season? The idea's ridiculous. If we have an undefeated season, it won't be because we drafted Nabers. It would be because of a ton of different decisions being made at a high level.

 

In any case, this is what recent events tell you:

 

Quick question: What do these players have in common? Kevin White, Corey Davis, Mike Williams (from Clemson to the Chargers), John Ross, Drake London and Sammy Watkins?

 

All WRs chosen in the top ten picks in the last ten years.

 

We tend to think "a top ten guy, he'll be a Ja'Marr Chase." And that ain't necessarily so. There are some very good WRs chosen in the top ten of those same drafts. But more who never justified the pick.

 

For those curious, here are all the rest of the top ten in those ten years:  Chase, Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Garrett Wilson, Amari Cooper, Mike Evans. That's five terrific players, one pretty damn good one in Smith and again, Kevin White, Corey Davis, Mike Williams (from Clemson to the Chargers), John Ross, Drake London and Sammy Watkins.

 

That's why you don't make such massive trade-ups unless you're doing it for a franchise QB. GMs tend to get carried away by their surety in their own abilities. And that's fools gold. Very very very few are genuine sure things. That's why Massey and Thaler and all of their inheritors say what they say. The data says tradeups that big are desperate, not to be made except for a franchise QB, as drafting a possible franchise QB is worth the prospect of a possible catastrophic failure, because you pretty much can't win without one.

[Sweats]

The Pats were well ahead of their time........wait, hear me out.

 

The time of a WR that can run past defenders' full steam downfield is done. It's time has come and passed. It's a by-gone era that will probably never ever come back. 

Defenses have caught on and are forcing teams to play the middle, which is why a good dink and dunk, slant, crossing route WR's are flourishing and why teams have to scheme accordingly. You're seeing more schemes, more alignments, adjustments, etc......trying to create mismatches at the line.

Also, YAC is becoming huge.......get the ball to your WR's hands in the middle and let them make a play.

 

The Pats excelled at all this.

Sure, when they had Moss they threw the occasional deep ball, but if you go back and watch, it's the YAC that kills the D, not really the long bomb.

They could take "middle of the road" WR's and let them work their magic in the middle and it helped huge that they had a guy like Gronk to create mismatches......same as Kelce and Kittle, etc.

 

I believe our FO is finally seeing the proper way to build our O.....create mismatches, scheme/gameplan, and let your WR's earn their pay with YAC.

It used to be a battle of the trenches (which it still is even today), however, it's now been amalgamated into a battle over the middle......whoever controls the trenches AND the middle, controls the game.

 

I have spoken. 

 

[cwater10]

I have still not forgotten this headache

[NoSaint]

9 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

What's unproductive about studying EVERY era of football to learn from them? Nothing that I can see, particularly because on this issue, every era tells you the same thing.

 

And what would make you think Nabers would bring us an undefeated season? The idea's ridiculous. If we have an undefeated season, it won't be because we drafted Nabers. It would be because of a ton of different decisions being made at a high level.

 

In any case, this is what recent events tell you:

 

Quick question: What do these players have in common? Kevin White, Corey Davis, Mike Williams (from Clemson to the Chargers), John Ross, Drake London and Sammy Watkins?

 

All WRs chosen in the top ten picks in the last ten years.

 

We tend to think "a top ten guy, he'll be a Ja'Marr Chase." And that ain't necessarily so. There are some very good WRs chosen in the top ten of those same drafts. But more who never justified the pick.

 

For those curious, here are all the rest of the top ten in those ten years:  Chase, Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Garrett Wilson, Amari Cooper, Mike Evans. That's five terrific players, one pretty damn good one in Smith and again, Kevin White, Corey Davis, Mike Williams (from Clemson to the Chargers), John Ross, Drake London and Sammy Watkins.

 

That's why you don't make such massive trade-ups unless you're doing it for a franchise QB. GMs tend to get carried away by their surety in their own abilities. And that's fools gold. Very very very few are genuine sure things. That's why Massey and Thaler and all of their inheritors say what they say. The data says tradeups that big are desperate, not to be made except for a franchise QB, as drafting a possible franchise QB is worth the prospect of a possible catastrophic failure, because you pretty much can't win without one.

I would agree it’s ridiculous to say nabers would make us 18-1 just like investing in him would also not exclude us from being in the Super Bowl 

 

the eras argument in draft busts is about the wild changes in both pipeline development and evaluation 

 

and last up, again, I’m saying that you can’t just look at top picks in past years in a vacuum. I used the luck vs mayfield as an obvious and extreme example but in this case these 3 are grading out better than the top picks in past years in advance of the draft. In advance they are grading like jamar chase, not Henry ruggs. 
 

if you looked at luck, mayfield and Jamarcus and then are looking a rare prospect in the face is the cautionary tale that qbs bust a lot at 1, or that qbs often get over drafted if there isn’t an elite one and that second tier remains spotty but often is the best available and you really should grab the elite tier 1A guy when he’s there without as much fear?

 

I think WR also has some of that trend and whether or not we go get one, someone’s getting rare prospects at the position this year. ((I feel most comfortable with that stance on Harrison, pretty good with nabers, don’t know odunze enough to have a major conviction)

[NoSaint]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Josh has had the reins for two or three years.

 

Agreed he doesn't need elite weapons. They need a good team without major holes and with Josh Allen and they've got a shot every year.

 

 

 

 

though it sure would be a nice luxury. I feel like many are neglecting that the 2007 pats, using the hall of fame qb-wr-te model scored 140 more points than last years bills- and in 1 fewer game. 
 

it’s not been common to document that success because it would be a rare opportunity to align all that and it’s not a particularly sustainable long term model but sign me up for a few years of it

[BarleyNY]

10 of the last 22 Super Bowls were won by Brady (7) or Mahomes(3). Add in the Mannings and Roethlisberger who have 2 each and we are up to 16 of the last 22. With that in mind, no conclusions can be drawn about draft picks spent on WRs in that time frame. 

 

Edited April 12 by BarleyNY

[Sweats]

I'm telling ya, package Knox, Elam and a couple of the Wegmans JA grocery bags and move up in the draft......i'm fairly certain this trade capital can get us up one spot, although the most valuable piece is the Wegmans grocery bags so we might have to throw a couple of more in there to sweeten the deal.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

14 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

This is what I have been saying.  The last 20 years, only one SB team had a WR1 taken in the top 15 picks.  There has never been any team in NFL history to make a huge investment to acquire a WR via trading for a proven one or trading up to draft one and win a SB.  There isn't even a team who signed an expensive one in FA that won a SB.  

 

Making a large investment in a WR via draft picks or free agency spending has a 0% success rate...aka 100% fail rate...in taking a team and getting them over the hump to win a Super Bowl.

 

Look at what Miami paid for Tyreek Hill who has been arguably the best WR in the NFL (him or Jefferson) the past 2 years and Miami can't even win their division with a 4 game lead late in the season and has 0 playoff wins.  Or look at Raiders an Davante Adams.  Even NE when they had Moss actually LOST in the Super Bowl, although they didn't invest a lot to get him.  

 

Now go look at the top 5 WR's in the NFL...more often than not, they are not on teams in the Super Bowl, let alone winning it.  

 

This board has had an unhealthy obsession with WR as if not having the best WR's is the reason we lose.  We lost in 2020 because we were the worst team on the field in that game.  We lost in 2021 because of our defense.  We lost in 2022 because we got dominated in the trenches and couldn't run the ball in bad elements.  We lost in 2023 because we had no Linebackers and KC abused that mismatch and we couldn't even get Mahomes dirty.  

 

We have never been eliminated because we didn't have enough weapons.  Our stable of weapons the last 4 years is better than a lot of Super Bowl winning teams offensive stables.  We had a top 5, arguably top 3, WR for the past 4 seasons and we have lost in the 2nd round 3 straight seasons.  

 

I mean, I want a WR early in this draft too, we all do.  But this notion we must mortgage the farm to go get one has 0 examples of ever working and weakens a cap strapped team from building the overall roster.  I mean next year, we have a first and 2 seconds to keep adding more ammo to this team, and people want to give it away like sticks of gum.  Not to mention, this is maybe the best WR draft in history, even less need to make a major move.  

I agree. I really hope Buffalo stays put in the draft and let someone fall to them. This draft is absolutely loaded at that position. I don’t mind a slight trade up, but not at the expense of any high future draft picks.

[BADOLBILZ]

 

Ultimately, as I see it, the problem with these arguments that @Alphadawg7 and others are making about either not needing a great WR or "trading up for a stud WR never works" is that there just isn't much context.

 

It's derivative of the argument that teams with league leading rushers never win the SB anymore..............when that used to be fairly common.............that was a legitimate proof of change in the league.   And the flip side of that is that teams with superstars at other positions do win SB's on the regular.    

 

You can identify the other side of the argument.

 

You can't identify the other side of the argument with these WR narratives that are being created.

 

Trading up OR trading back in a draft for anything other than a QB rarely moves the needle to "SB winner" for a franchise.   

 

The league changed in 2010.    By 2018 when the Bills were able to get Josh Allen with pick #7 an influx of QB talent had begun.   Young athletes were being steered into passing game positions.    No longer were there just 3-5 teams that had an incredibly talented QB option.    At the same time,   WR talent was following suit.    What's happened, in general, is that the arms race has shifted from QB to WR.    To even reach the SB in this era of relative abundance of QB talent you pretty much need 2 stud receiving targets.   Even the Pats had Gronk and Edelman.   The Chiefs second options the last 2 years had nearly 1,000 yards receiving in the regular season.   And those are the closest things to exceptions.   Most that reach the SB have greater talents.  

 

I just don't think there is a definitive argument about which is the way to get them.    And we're just pretending there is by creating these narratives that don't really tell us much.

Edited April 12 by BADOLBILZ

[T master]

One player does not make a SB team ! It has to be all 3 phases of the team clicking & having a chemistry with the players involved and then it doesn't mean your going to win it all because the other team is just as good to get to the big game & they are trying to win too .

 

I feel like what Tasker always says on 1 Bills Live that the team has to play it's best on those days in order to win & it only takes 1 wrong move or 1 right move to win or lose a game . As they say any given Sunday ...

5 hours ago, cwater10 said:

I have still not forgotten this headache

 

Man i hate that team !!!! They were really good but dammit i can't stand them !! 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Ultimately, as I see it, the problem with these arguments that @Alphadawg7 and others are making about either not needing a great WR or "trading up for a stud WR never works" is that there just isn't much context.

 

It's derivative of the argument that teams with league leading rushers never win the SB anymore..............when that used to be fairly common.............that was a legitimate proof of change in the league.   And the flip side of that is that teams with superstars at other positions do win SB's on the regular.    

 

You can identify the other side of the argument.

 

You can't identify the other side of the argument with these WR narratives that are being created.

 

Trading up OR trading back in a draft for anything other than a QB rarely moves the needle to "SB winner" for a franchise.   

 

The league changed in 2010.    By 2018 when the Bills were able to get Josh Allen with pick #7 an influx of QB talent had begun.   Young athletes were being steered into passing game positions.    No longer were there just 3-5 teams that had an incredibly talented QB option.    At the same time,   WR talent was following suit.    What's happened, in general, is that the arms race has shifted from QB to WR.    To even reach the SB in this era of relative abundance of QB talent you pretty much need 2 stud receiving targets.   Even the Pats had Gronk and Edelman.   The Chiefs second options the last 2 years had nearly 1,000 yards receiving in the regular season.   And those are the closest things to exceptions.   Most that reach the SB have greater talents.  

 

I just don't think there is a definitive argument about which is the way to get them.    And we're just pretending there is by creating these narratives that don't really tell us much.

 

To be clear...I am only making one case, and that is that a hefty investment in a WR has never worked out.  And keep in mind, I am including more than an expensive draft day trade up, I am talking an expensive trade for a proven WR and I am including a big contract for a Free Agent signing acquisition for a WR.  

 

There are a lot more examples then I think you realize I am referencing when you factor all 3 scenarios in.  Just in the past 4 years you have guys like Diggs, Hopkins, Hill, Adams, etc that all meet that criteria and haven't led to a Lombardi trophy.  

 

My personal case is built on the investment vs return.  I am not saying you can't win with a top tier WR1, I am saying that spending big to acquire one has never been the missing piece.  

 

I am all for getting a WR early and getting a top tier WR1, just not gutting our future to do so in what may be the best WR draft in NFL history.  

 

The Bills are most likely not a better team with Nabers and getting rid of our 2nd this year, our 1st next year and another 2nd than they are at taking a WR at 28 like Mitchell, then using our 2nd to get OL, DL, Secondary, or another WR and then using our 1st and 2nd next year to add more to our other needs.  

 

Odds are greater the Bills in 2 years will be a better team adding say Mitchell (or what ever WR one prefers at 28) and 3 more prospects in rounds 1 and 2 then just adding Nabers/Odunze only.  They can still double dip on WR this year too in a very deep draft.  

Edited April 12 by Alphadawg7

[dave mcbride]

17 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Not that many, go look for yourself.  

 

And again, I am also talking teams who are good teams making a move to go get a Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, Stefon Diggs who are top tier WR1 and after all they spent to get them and pay them got ZERO Super Bowls.  Or a team spending big to trade up and get a Julio Jones.  So not, its not a correlation of just bad teams, I am specifically stating teams that have gone and spent big thinking a WR gets them over the hump to ultimately win nothing of importance.  

 

I am happy to be wrong about this, so if you can find even one example of a team that won a Super Bowl after any of the following scenarios, I will glady adjust my 0% success rate and 100% fail rate statements:

• Acquired for top dollar in Free Agency
• Acquired via trade for premium draft capital (like Adams, Hill, Diggs, etc)
• Acquired through an expensive trade up trade in a draft (like a Julio, Watkins, etc)

Find me any example that got a team over the hump to put hardware in their case for going all in on a WR and I will change my tune.  Don't even need multiple examples, just asking for one that maybe I missed, which is possible.  

Here's one that sort of fits: the Ravens gave up a pretty fair amount to AZ for Anquan Boldin (3rd and 4th round picks) and promptly handed him a big-money extension. He was absolutely money for them in 2012, especially in the postseason that year: 22 receptions for 380 yards and 4 TDs (and 104 yards plus a TD in the Super Bowl). He should be in the HOF, in my opinion -- his lifetime stats are crazy good. 

 

The Eagles gave Alshon Jeffrey a one-year $14 million contract after he came off the franchise tag in Chicago, and he was one of the highest paid receivers in the league in 2017. He signed a 4-year extension for $52 million before that season ended too (in early December 2017). He had a pretty big postseason that year and scored a TD in the SB.

Edited April 12 by dave mcbride

[Motorin']

17 hours ago, njbuff said:

Well, just my opinion.

 

I think it is Josh Allen's time to take over the reigns of this team and to me, he doesn't need elite weapons. He simply needs receivers who can hang onto the balls most importantly.

 

Also of importance is being able to fill out the roster. The Bills need depth at almost every position, with starting potential, and the best way to do that is to trade down and acquire multiple picks, ala what SF did in the 1986 draft (look up that draft to see what I mean).

 

Beane's a big baller though and I wouldn't be surprised if he is in love with getting his hands on Nabers, MHJ or Odunze for Josh Allen. 

 

The SF 1986 draft. Had to look that up. They traded back to 39 and took a DE that flamed out. Then had 12 more picks. One of which became HOF DE Charles Haley, they're second DE selected, at 96.

 

In all, they selected two CB's that started for a decade. They're #2 wr Jon Taylor... A LT that started for a decade. A third DE in addition to Haley that started for a number of years. And Tom Rathman...

 

Like us, they had their franchise QB. But they also already had Jerry Rice...

 

Flip DE and WR--trade back and take 3 cracks at finding two legitimate starting wr's?

 

And then hope to find four more decades long starters? Sign me up! Easier said than done though. 

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

Here's one that sort of fits: the Ravens gave up a pretty fair amount to AZ for Anquan Boldin (3rd and 4th round picks) and promptly handed him a big-money extension. He was absolutely money for them in 2012, especially in the postseason that year: 22 receptions for 380 yards and 4 TDs (and 104 yards plus a TD in the Super Bowl). He should be in the HOF, in my opinion -- his lifetime stats are crazy good. 

 

This is a fun example...here is why I didn't include him.  Statistically hemhad his 3 worst prime years (all in the 800 yard range) in his 3 years in Baltimore where he was a 1000+ yard guy both before and after Balt but never reaching 900 in Baltimore.  And the trade compensation is not really that close to the trade compensation we are discussing, although I will give you its still a decent size investment.

 

But, this is a worthy counter example to weigh, so nice work, and I won't fully disregard this one even though I think it falls a little short on the comparable moves we are discussing, especially given to get one of the big 3 its going to cost the Bills substantially more than what Balt paid to get Boldin.  

 

Still, nice work  

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

This is a fun example...here is why I didn't include him.  Statistically hemhad his 3 worst prime years (all in the 800 yard range) in his 3 years in Baltimore where he was a 1000+ yard guy both before and after Balt but never reaching 900 in Baltimore.  And the trade compensation is not really that close to the trade compensation we are discussing, although I will give you its still a decent size investment.

 

But, this is a worthy counter example to weigh, so nice work, and I won't fully disregard this one even though I think it falls a little short on the comparable moves we are discussing, especially given to get one of the big 3 its going to cost the Bills substantially more than what Balt paid to get Boldin.  

 

Still, nice work  

Thanks! See above re Alshon Jeffrey too, which I added. 

Re Boldin, the stats were always bound to decline a bit because they were a run-heavy team. But the postseason numbers were excellent.

[billsfan89]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

Thanks! See above re Alshon Jeffrey too, which I added. 

Re Boldin, the stats were always bound to decline a bit because they were a run-heavy team. But the postseason numbers were excellent.

Boldin was also a fantastic blocker (which for a run heavy team like the Ravens or 49ers is more important) he set a physical tone on offense which is very rare for a WR. 

[dave mcbride]

9 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

This is a fun example...here is why I didn't include him.  Statistically hemhad his 3 worst prime years (all in the 800 yard range) in his 3 years in Baltimore where he was a 1000+ yard guy both before and after Balt but never reaching 900 in Baltimore.  And the trade compensation is not really that close to the trade compensation we are discussing, although I will give you its still a decent size investment.

 

But, this is a worthy counter example to weigh, so nice work, and I won't fully disregard this one even though I think it falls a little short on the comparable moves we are discussing, especially given to get one of the big 3 its going to cost the Bills substantially more than what Balt paid to get Boldin.  

 

Still, nice work  

Would you trade our very late 2nd and a 4th for Aiyuk? I would. It's sort of an equivalent trade factoring in that WRs now have a higher premium than they did in 2010. 

5 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

Boldin was also a fantastic blocker (which for a run heavy team like the Ravens or 49ers is more important) he set a physical tone on offense which is very rare for a WR. 

He was honestly one of my favorite players to watch. I always said that if the throw had been to Anquan Boldin instead of Lee Evans, there was no way Leigh Bodden was going to knock it out of his hands. 

Edited April 12 by dave mcbride

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Would you trade our very late 2nd and a 4th for Aiyuk? I would. It's sort of an equivalent trade factoring in that WRs have a higher premium than they did in 2010. 

 

Yes if Beane can make the cap work as he wants more money now, not later.  

 

4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

He was honestly one of my favorite players to watch. I always said that if the throw had been to Anquan Boldin instead of Lee Evans, there was no way Leigh Bodden was going to knock it out of his hands. 

 

Anquan Boldin has a HOF case IMHO, I think he is one of the most underrated WR's of the past 20 years.  I would LOVE to find an equivalent to Boldin in this draft.  And he is a prime example, along with guys like Larry Fitzgerald, that 40 time is not the be all end all its made out to be.  

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Ultimately, as I see it, the problem with these arguments that @Alphadawg7 and others are making about either not needing a great WR or "trading up for a stud WR never works" is that there just isn't much context.

 

It's derivative of the argument that teams with league leading rushers never win the SB anymore..............when that used to be fairly common.............that was a legitimate proof of change in the league.   And the flip side of that is that teams with superstars at other positions do win SB's on the regular.    

 

You can identify the other side of the argument.

 

You can't identify the other side of the argument with these WR narratives that are being created.

 

Trading up OR trading back in a draft for anything other than a QB rarely moves the needle to "SB winner" for a franchise.   

 

The league changed in 2010.    By 2018 when the Bills were able to get Josh Allen with pick #7 an influx of QB talent had begun.   Young athletes were being steered into passing game positions.    No longer were there just 3-5 teams that had an incredibly talented QB option.    At the same time,   WR talent was following suit.    What's happened, in general, is that the arms race has shifted from QB to WR.    To even reach the SB in this era of relative abundance of QB talent you pretty much need 2 stud receiving targets.   Even the Pats had Gronk and Edelman.   The Chiefs second options the last 2 years had nearly 1,000 yards receiving in the regular season.   And those are the closest things to exceptions.   Most that reach the SB have greater talents.  

 

I just don't think there is a definitive argument about which is the way to get them.    And we're just pretending there is by creating these narratives that don't really tell us much.

largely, agreed. 
 

it’s a short window and to pretend Brady and mahomes aren’t the true issue at hand in this debate is a real challenge. 
 

 

to think you can’t because of the last decade-ish is both challenging data and looking to confirm an opinion.
 

Had the falcons held on in 28-3 does it really materially affect this debate and make one say it’s one of the few proven ways to break through the Brady-mahomes wall as opposed to currently being an impossible strategy? 
 

id love a cheap great wr, but I know they are more predictable if you get a top tier instead of waiting. 

[boater]

On the TBD news page, Syracuse Post suggests the Bills might even trade down.

 

"The Bills might ultimately be content with letting the draft play out and addressing the position at No. 28 — or even possibly trading back."

 

That would cause a melt down around here.

[NoSaint]

6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yes if Beane can make the cap work as he wants more money now, not later.  

 

 

Anquan Boldin has a HOF case IMHO, I think he is one of the most underrated WR's of the past 20 years.  I would LOVE to find an equivalent to Boldin in this draft.  And he is a prime example, along with guys like Larry Fitzgerald, that 40 time is not the be all end all its made out to be.  

cash now is the easy part with bonus amortizations 

Just now, boater said:

On the TBD news page, Syracuse Post suggests the Bills might even trade down.

 

"The Bills might ultimately be content with letting the draft play out and addressing the position at No. 28 — or even possibly trading back."

 

That would cause a melt down around here.

I don’t think you can go into a dynamic day with a singular approach, in most cases

 

you have to see where value lands. That said it sure would be tough to reach the regular season with Samuel, Shakir and a second rounder 

 

those guys tend to take some time to acclimate AND heaven forbid there’s any hiccups or an injury to Samuel. 
 

shakir-round 2 rookie as our primary options the first half of the year could be a real challenge.

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

cash now is the easy part with bonus amortizations 

I don’t think you can go into a dynamic day with a singular approach, in most cases

 

you have to see where value lands. That said it sure would be tough to reach the regular season with Samuel, Shakir and a second rounder 

 

those guys tend to take some time to acclimate AND heaven forbid there’s any hiccups or an injury to Samuel. 
 

shakir-round 2 rookie as our primary options the first half of the year could be a real challenge.

 

I mean it depends who we are talking about.  If we got McConkey in round 2, I think he is the most ready outside the big 4 to come in and make an immediate impact.  If we got say Legette, I think he will struggle early and will take more time to develop into a true WR1 outside a big play threat.  

[MiracleAtRich1393]

19 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

The last 5 super bowls had the following #1 receiving options. In addition to that in most cases these teams had another option that was pretty damn good as well.  

 

2023: Travis Kelse vs Brandon Aiyuk

2022: Travis Kelse vs AJ Brown

2021: Cooper Kupp vs Ja'Marr Chase

2020: Mike Evans vs Travis Kelse

2019: Travis Kelse vs George Kittle 

 

Just because New England was able to do it a certain way doesn't make it a model for everybody else. Even in the 5 years since the last New England Super Bowl the game has changed even more. Other examples you give such as Megatron (horrific team) Moss (major reason for undefeated season), Julio Jones (should have won the Super Bowl) don't add up to don't focus on WR.

 

If anything this thread tells me the Super Bowl has multiple paths for different teams. Currently we don't have a dominating unit. That could change with some positive play but that's where it stands right now. We have Allen and a lot of pieces that could come together.  With that we don't have a pass catcher on our roster who has ever achieved a 1000 yard season in his career. So yes, as much as you can argue WR isn't an essential piece to the equation for many teams it is for us right now. Currently our most essential piece has no weapons and that statement would also be true for the future years unless we see Kinkaid or Shakir really take off. Very possible, but you land your insurance piece in the draft and thats how you become one of the teams above with your main pass catcher being a star with secondary options being guys like Deboo Samuel, Tyreek Hill, Tee Higgins, Chris Godwin, DeVonta Smith, etc

 

 

You listed a lot of elite TEs for those other teams (fairly I might add) but people often overlook Gronk as a weapon for NE, a probable first ballot HOF game changing weapon in his own right!

[transplantbillsfan]

9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Matt Ryan and Pat Mahomes are BOTH the models. Neither one won a Super Bowl with any top ten WR on his roster. Both teach the same thing, though from opposite directions.

 

Mahomes won with the best TE in the NFL and one of the best WRs in the NFL.

 

If you're talking about "drafted in the top 10," that's fine except it's a crap shoot.  Ryan's MVP season and Super Bowl loss season was with one of the best WRs in the NFL who happened to be a top 10 pick.  Mahomes's first 2 Super Bowl appearances (1 loss and 1 win) were with 2 of the best weapons in all of the NFL.  They both had red flags due to character concerns that dropped them in the draft.

 

9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

Ryan teaches that even having an absolutely sensational WR on the team guarantees nothing and in fact led to far more losing than winning. Mahomes teaches that you can win SBs without blowing huge resources on WRs. Didn't have a top ten pick or even a first round pick at WR on any of those SB rosters.

 

Nothing is ever guaranteed in the NFL.  Did you think I was saying it was?  

 

See my previous comments on Mahomes.  Of course you can get an Elite WR later in the draft, but hindsight is 20/20 and those players aren't guaranteed.  The argument is silly and looks only in the rearview mirror.

 

Nothing is guaranteed with the top 3 WRs, but in particular MHJ & Odunze look to be as close to those can't miss/high floor prospects there have been in many years.

 

9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

Josh doesn't "deserve 2 elite weapons." He deserves far more than that. He deserves a team around him that can win a Super Bowl. History shows that you do that with a good roster and that you don't need elite weapons.

 

Teams that play for a Lombardi have at least 1 Elite weapon more often than not.  Look at the 5 most recent Super Bowls.  All 10 teams had 1 or more Elite Weapon.

 

9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

Another thing Josh deserves is for his team NOT to use a strategy that has worked out and produced SB winners an extremely small percentage of the time. If we had a top ten pick, one of the top three WRs would probably be a good move. Trading major resources away to get into the top ten for a receiver, though, is dumb. Particularly in a year with great depth in talented WRs. It would lower our chances of success.

 

I'll be fine if we stay put or trade down to get one of the other WRs.  One of them might pan out and become Elite.  I think Josh being their QB will help them with that.

 

But trading up and getting one of the Big 3 (Odunze just screams Buffalo to me) sounds more appealing.

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

20 hours ago, NORWOODS FOOT said:

We’re the Bills. We’re never going to win a Super Bowl.

 

 

I've never read anything more truthful than these sentences on TSW in all the decades I've been here.

[Nihilarian]

17 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

There are WR'S in this draft that can be impact WR's other than the "Big 3".  Cosell said as such. He sees AD Mitchell as one of those guys, along with Thomas Jr., who can become that.  Franklin was considered a stud until the combine.

 

Fans get too damn wrapped up in names and who the media pushes. I still feel we can get an impact guy at 28 or even move down into the early 2nd round and grab one.  There is just no way I would give up anything more than a 2nd next year to move up in the 1st IF even that.

Exactly, I remember that most of this fan base wanted the Bills to trade up to the #2 spot with the NY Giants in 2018 to draft Josh Rosen! How much of a mistake would that have been by giving up the farm for a bum? It could happen at WR too.

 

If this is a such rich WR draft class why feel the need to move up to get one as there are 12 WRs listed in DJ's top 50 players? 

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-50-2024-nfl-draft-prospect-rankings-2-0

 

While other teams are scrambling to find that elusive franchise QB or pass rusher, or OT. Buffalo could sit tight and get a really good player at 28. OR trade back and pick up that extra 3rd rounder that they lost with the Edmunds moved from a 3rd to a 4th.

 

The Green Bay Packers have made a living out of drafting WRs in the second round. What about Puka Nacua in the 5th last year? 

 

The only position that currently is worrisome to me is the center position by losing Mitch Morse, who called the offensive protections and was a stable force at that position since 2019 and was a pro bowler. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

3 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Exactly, I remember that most of this fan base wanted the Bills to trade up to the #2 spot with the NY Giants in 2018 to draft Josh Rosen! How much of a mistake would that have been by giving up the farm for a bum? It could happen at WR too.

 

If this is a such rich WR draft class why feel the need to move up to get one as there are 12 WRs listed in DJ's top 50 players? 

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-50-2024-nfl-draft-prospect-rankings-2-0

 

While other teams are scrambling to find that elusive franchise QB or pass rusher, or OT. Buffalo could sit tight and get a really good player at 28. OR trade back and pick up that extra 3rd rounder that they lost with the Edmunds moved from a 3rd to a 4th.

 

The Green Bay Packers have made a living out of drafting WRs in the second round. What about Puka Nacua in the 5th last year? 

 

The only position that currently is worrisome to me is the center position by losing Mitch Morse, who called the offensive protections and was a stable force at that position since 2019 and was a pro bowler. 

I'm not sweating Center. McGovern has been training for this and is ready.  I do hope we grab a Center to groom just in case day 3 of the draft.

[Malazan]

21 hours ago, BringBackFergy said:

Sweet!!! Another WR thread!!

You're not following TBD Protocol. Please make your own thread about all the WR threads.

[ControllerOfPlanetX]

Just pick a WR and go with it:

 

 

 

[BananaB]

1 or 2 of the top 3 are not gonna big stars. Jmo. Thats why I don’t want Bills to trade up 

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

23 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

I keep reading about Julio Jones and the big trade-up to get him for the QB Matt Ryan led Falcons in 2011. The Falcons didn't even get to an SB until 2016, 5 years after that trade, and even then... they lost to the NE Patriots in that game. The Falcons that SB season also had Devonta Freeman at RB in a balanced offense. 

 

After that trade for Julio Jones, Atlanta lost the WildCard game that season and lost in the conference championship to the 49ers after a 13-3 season.  The Falcons didn't even make the playoffs with WR Julio Jones in 2013-2014-2015 going 4-12, 6-10 and 8-8. 

 

Lots of folks saying that the reason for the declining years was because of the resources spent on that stud WR. And that HC Mike Smith was canned along the way in 2015, the GM a bit later in 2020.

 

Let's look at the team that beat the Falcons in that Super Bowl, the NE Patriots.  Yes, they had Tom Brady at QB all those SB years. But who else did they have? SB in 2001 with WR Troy Brown. The funny thing with that 2001 season was the only 1000-yard season Troy Brown had in his 15 seasons with NE. They also had WR Randy Moss in 2007-2008-2009 and he had 3 1000-yard seasons in NE and yet they made one SB in 2007 only to lose it and didn't make it in the next two seasons with Moss.

 

So, I'm thinking that these stud superstar WRs don't always make a team an SB contender.  Calvin Johnson, 2007 2015. Megatron, he ever make a SB? Larry Fitzgerald for Arizona 2004-2020. He made it to one SB and lost it. Steve Largent, Seattle 1976-1989 with 8, 1000-yard seasons. 

 

I look at the NE Patriots who run the very same offensive scheme as the current Buffalo Bills (Erhardt-Perkins). So what did they do so well that got them to so many SBs and wins? They usually played great defense with Ole Bill as the HC. They moved the chains with Troy Brown, Wess Welker, and Julian Edelman, and when they went to the red zone they had a big TE in Rob Gronkowski. Buffalo has their "chain movers" in Shakir, Knox, and Dalton Kincade. 

 

I somewhat agree here but comparing Matt Ryan to Tom Brady (The best QB in NFL history) is a bad comparison but i also agree that Josh Allen makes everyone around him better (John Brown/Cole Beasley/Stefon Diggs all had career best stats with Allen at QB) so the notion that we have to trade up or even draft a QB at 28 is a bit of a stretch although it would definitely make Allens life easier if that hit on a QB at pick 28 imo. 

[Thrivefourfive]

I’m not digging up the details but Key to Tampa Bay. That WR got them a ring.

 

Owens to Philly. Super Bowl appearance. 
 

Any relativity there? Big time WR going to a new team and the team having instant success. 

[NORWOODS FOOT]

3 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

I've never read anything more truthful than these sentences on TSW in all the decades I've been here.

I bit my tongue and cried after I said it (not really), but it felt true, and I feel free. Finally. (Kinda really)

 

If a miracle happens it will take me by surprise.

Nec spe. Nec metu.

Edited April 12 by NORWOODS FOOT

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 4/11/2024 at 8:07 PM, Cray51 said:

I understand what you are trying to say, but every Super Bowl winning team in the last 5 years HAS had a top 10 receiving threat in that season (Kelce, Kupp, Kelce, Evans, Hill)

 

and, no team that has made the Super Bowl in the last 5 seasons has had a little surrounding talent then what the bills have right now without Diggs.

 

the situation is clear.  WR room is lacking talent on this team, and there are 3 high end potential top end #1 WR prospects in this draft.

 

in addition, the concern of not being able to field a strong roster if we mortgage picks to move up is in my opinion a controllable risk.  One of Beane’s best abilities is to utilize several avenues to field NFL capable talent across the field.  One of his big criticisms? Bringing in superstar talent.

 

does Beane moving up for a top end WR guarantee any success?  No, of course not.  But if he does move up does it give us more autonomy in selecting the right WR to potentially put us to the promise land?  Yes it does.

 

we will have to see what happens on draft day 

No one really knows the talent we have since Kincaid and Shakir are so young. You can throw Shorter in there as well. Any of these players can turn into a stud.