How would you construct the 2024 Bills WR Room?

[Coach Tuesday]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'd be shocked if either McConkey or Legette is off the board before #28. The Bills feel like the start of the range for both players IMO. I think Ladd then has some other possible fits late in the first - San Fran (if Aiyuk is to be moved) and KC.... possibly even Baltimore (if they have finally decided Bateman isn't it). I think if the Bills don't take Legette he is a 2nd rounder.... but there are half a dozen potential landing spots early in the 2nd - Carolina, Washington, New England, Chargers (if they got OL in round 1), even possibly Tennessee. I think Ladd is a possible fit in some of those spots too. Then #44 to #51 is where I expect a mammoth receiver run:

 

#44 Raiders - have Adams at 31 on a huge deal with an out after this year, Meyers and then literally nothing else.

#45 Saints - need a running mate for Olave (think they'd want a bigger guy so Legette, Coleman etc are in play)

#46 Colts - less likely as they have a decent top 3 - Pittman, Pierce, Downs.... but there is still room to upgrade

#47 Giants - might take one early but what if they go QB in round 1? They'd then be almost certain to go WR their next pick

#48 Jax - again might go that route round 1 but if they don't I'd expect them to here

#49 Bengals - lost Boyd and Higgins uncertainty

#50 Eagles - not an urgent need by AJ Brown drama this year feels a lot like the Diggs drama last year and 2024 might be a last ride

#51 Steelers - traded Johnson away means it is slim pickings opposite Pickens.

 

In those eight picks I think you could easily see four or five receivers go off the board. It is why I think early 40s is the last possible target zone for the Bills if their plan really is to trade back from #28, or trade up to double dip. 

Totally agree.  A trade up for Thomas if he falls, or trading up one or two slots for Mitchell or McConkey, then an aggressive move up to the top 8 of round 2 to “double dip” is my dream scenario, AND I’d add a vet like OBJ.  Two kids who can grow together (Worthy and Thomas, Ladd and Mitchell or Legette) and you’ve fixed the position and cost-controlled it for four years without leveraging your future with a massive trade up.  Plus add a vet like OBJ and suddenly the worst WR room in the league is one of the deepest.

[Warriorspikes51]

what if.....  Seattle decides to rebuild with new regime.  Maybe this deal helps them get their future QB

28, 60, 128,  2025 1st, 2nd

For

16 (Brian Thomas Jr)  & DK Metcalf  

 

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

9 hours ago, NickelCity said:

 

Fair enough. Ignoring prospects, I still think trading our 2024 and 2025 2nd rounders to move up in the 2nd is tough to fathom unless it's at the very top of the round. Hard to see the Bills doing that and making both picks receivers. 

 

I'm wondering why you would say it's tough to fathom? we would still own a 2025 2nd rounder from the Diggs trade and you're just swapping out the 60th pick for whatever pick you decide to move up for. Why do you think that's a bad move?

[Gregg]

Looks like things aren't going so well between the Raiders and Adams.

 

 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

Just now, Gregg said:

Looks like things aren't going so well between the Raiders and Adams.

 

 

 

 

Let him go somewhere in the NFC.   He's 31 

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Let him go somewhere in the NFC.   He's 31 

 

If he and the Raiders part ways you know the Jets will try to get him. Rodgers would love to get his favorite receiver back.

[Brandon]

20 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

there's no way I'd give up 5 potential starting players for a top prospect at any position unless it was QB. I'd much rather we just draft 5 WRs and take our shot that one or more of them are good. It's not like top prospects are a sure thing. They bust all the time.

 

That's how I see it as well.  In fact,  I'd rather they take WRs at 28 and 60 rather than use those two picks to trade up for just one. It's a deep WR draft.  They don't need to throw a bunch of picks at one player.  And as you say,  there's no guarantee even if you trade up.  

[Warriorspikes51]

 

 

[Rocbillsfan1]

To all of the we gotta draft 2 WRs while trading up for 1 and signing another vet wr you do realize the bills don’t need 5 starting WRs while most likely only 2 or 3 are going to see significant snaps right? Our wr 5 and 6 are mostly special teams guys that can also play if needed like shorter who I see being active this year. Shakir is a diamond in the rough and deserve snaps and Samuels is a solid vet. That leaves maybe room for one more significant role like a high draft pick and a backup that maybe is filled by a vet on a smaller contract or another mid round pick. So something like

 

legette.                      Legette

shakir                         Shakir

samuels.                    Samuels

malik Washington     Boyd

hollins.                       Hollins

shorter.                      Shorter 

 

 

[KingBoots8]

So, obviously this all depends on how the draft picks fall, but for the sake of argument I am assuming that we are not willing to trade anywhere above 20. In fact, if there is a run on WR I am predicting we consider trading back to pick up a late 3rd. You obviously also need a willing trade partner, so none of this is guaranteed.

 

all that being said, I would look to the mid-30s for trade back options, specifically Arizona or Washington.

AZ I would look for 35 & 94 for 28

 

Washington has a lot of picks in the 2nd and 3rd, so I’d shoot for 36 & 74 for 28, 128, and 160. Compensation is close enough, plus they get a shot at a 5th year extension for whoever they sign so we may be able to offer a lower pick for that reason.

 

Again, based on how the draft falls, I’d likely go for someone like Franklin or McConkey (2 players the Bills have met with multiple times) at pick 35-36. Then unless someone falls significantly I wouldn’t touch WR in the draft until the 5th round. We have too many other needs to address and have positions we need to get younger at. In the 5th I would consider someone like Luke McCaffrey, and possibly Cornelius Johnson if I was inclined to absolutely get a WR in the 5th. I have him as a 5th/6th prospect, closer to 6th but he should be gone before pick 200 in my opinion.

 

 

Curtis Samuel

Franklin/McConkey

Khalil Shakir

Mack Hollins

McCaffrey/Johnson

Justin Shorter

 

[khlax3]

My prediction:

 

Curtis samuel

shakir

draft pick (McConkey/Franklin)

OBJ

Hollins

Shorter/late Rd pick/Hamler/isabella 

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

On 4/4/2024 at 2:58 AM, Kirby Jackson said:

Okay, that’s a fair opinion. I’m not looking for “a good guy.” I’m looking for a top of the depth chart, low risk, stud. 
 

The goal of this wasn’t to say what we wouldn’t do. There’s plenty of that going on here already. This was, “who would be your 6 or 7 WRs on the roster this year and how did you get them?” Obviously we don’t know who will be on the board at 28 but we can use reasonable assumptions. Harrison won’t be, Pearsall will be, Mitchell might be. Be reasonable but lay out what your group would look like

 

We did that with Sammy Watkins and they he turned out to not be the Alpha stud his draft hype made him out to be in a loaded WR class.  We traded for Diggs because we had no shot at the elite 3 of Ruggs, Jeudy, and Lamb just to see Ruggs go bye bye, Jeudy be meh at best, and the best WR to be the guy who was on the board when we would have picked in Justin Jefferson who has a case as the best WR in the NFL right now.  

 

So just saying, its a lot to risk when so often the most hyped guys are not the best ones to emerge from the draft when you are talking about a loaded class.  

 

Would I be excited to get MHJ, Nabers, or Odunze...absolutely.  But I really have a hard time spending QB level draft compensation to go get a WR in maybe the best WR draft ever.  

Edited April 6 by Alphadawg7

[Alphadawg7]

15 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

If the Bills said “Mike Evans” instead of “Sammy Watkins” you’d think that it was a great trade though, correct? The Julio Jones trade worked out great for Atlanta, right? We need to stop with the thought of, “we shouldn’t trade up for a WR because 10 years ago we did and it didn’t work out great.” Watkins not working out doesn’t correlate to these guys 😂😂. 

 

Ok...how about this.  There has never been a team who traded multiple first round picks for any WR that then won a Super Bowl.  Or, in the last 20 years, one 2 Super Bowl winning teams had a top 20 drafted WR1 on the roster (Mike Evans and 18 years ago Marvin Harrison).  How good was Randy Moss?  How about Calvin Johnson?  What about Julio Jones?  These are considered to be amongst the GOATS and the most unguardable as it gets at WR and none of them have a SB ring.  

 

We just had Diggs for 4 years who was top 3 or top 5 WR during that span and didn't get us to but one AFCCG.  Don't get me wrong, I want an elite WR as much as anyone to pair with Allen.  But you don't mortgage your future for one, it isn't the recipe to get over the hump.  Plus, this is Buffalo, its much more important to win in the trenches in those bad weather games late in the season and playoffs then try and win through the air in that bad weather.  

 

Not saying we can't trade up at all, just can't pay QB level compensation, especially in a draft that is maybe the best ever in talent and depth for WR's.  

[MrEpsYtown]

1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

 

There are no “number 1s” in that group. I keep spamming the board that this idea of a #1 is overdone. You just need good players who catch the football and are trustworthy to go with your awesome QB. It’s even better if they are dirt cheap, which is what the Packers have done here. 

[Victory Formation]

My heart is telling me that the Bills are very high on Brian Thomas Jr. and Xavier Legette. Both players are very “Beansy” picks. If BTJ fell to #20 I could very much see Beane giving up a future 3rd/4th and swapping picks like he did with Kincaid.

[Alphadawg7]

2 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

My heart is telling me that the Bills are very high on Brian Thomas Jr. and Xavier Legette. Both players are very “Beansy” picks. If BTJ fell to #20 I could very much see Beane giving up a future 3rd/4th and swapping picks like he did with Kincaid.

 

I do think they could move up for Thomas too, how far is up for debate.  My guess is the same as you, probably needs to get to 20 or later.  

 

If we don't move up, then I think in the post Diggs era now that someone like Ladd McConkey who has that elite route running ability we are losing with Diggs becomes much more in play than before.  In fact, I have a feeling the only 2 we would look at with pick 28 is Mitchell or McConkey.  We could also move back and try and pick up say a 3rd this year and maybe still get McConkey, although I don't think he would make it past both Balt and KC personally.  

 

I have been very high on McConkey but wasn't sure if he would be high on the Bills board with Diggs here.  But Diggs trade I think elevates his potential to us and he is my WR5 on board behind Thomas.  Followed by Mitchell as the 6 guys I think we could take in the first.  Not sold they would stay at 28 and take one of the other WR's.  Could see them trading back a little bit or taking another position and then making a move for a WR in the 2nd.  

 

Be awesome if we could trade back a little bit and get back a 3rd and still get one of McConkey, Legette, Mitchell, etc.  

[Victory Formation]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I do think they could move up for Thomas too, how far is up for debate.  My guess is the same as you, probably needs to get to 20 or later.  

 

If we don't move up, then I think in the post Diggs era now that someone like Ladd McConkey who has that elite route running ability we are losing with Diggs becomes much more in play than before.  In fact, I have a feeling the only 2 we would look at with pick 28 is Mitchell or McConkey.  We could also move back and try and pick up say a 3rd this year and maybe still get McConkey, although I don't think he would make it past both Balt and KC personally.  

 

I have been very high on McConkey but wasn't sure if he would be high on the Bills board with Diggs here.  But Diggs trade I think elevates his potential to us and he is my WR5 on board behind Thomas.  Followed by Mitchell as the 6 guys I think we could take in the first.  Not sold they would stay at 28 and take one of the other WR's.  Could see them trading back a little bit or taking another position and then making a move for a WR in the 2nd.  

 

Be awesome if we could trade back a little bit and get back a 3rd and still get one of McConkey, Legette, Mitchell, etc.  

Both Mitchell and McConkey are one hit wonders which scares me. I’m not saying they won’t be good but something to keep in mind.

[Solomon Grundy]

On 4/4/2024 at 10:30 AM, wolfpack78 said:

Take a flier on Michael Thomas on a one year prove it deal.  

Why, when you can get a 20 yr old Michael Thomas in Keon Coleman? On a rookie contract no less. People need to get over his 40 time. Dude is a BALLER

[EmotionallyUnstable]

1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:

There are no “number 1s” in that group. I keep spamming the board that this idea of a #1 is overdone. You just need good players who catch the football and are trustworthy to go with your awesome QB. It’s even better if they are dirt cheap, which is what the Packers have done here. 

Genuinely asking:

 

Is the packers passing game something we should strive to be like? These are good players taken with decent selections and they’re getting good production but does that result in wins?

 

My concern here is, just acquiring guys who catch the football and are trustworthy only get you so far when teams line up and make you beat them. I want guys who can win 1v1 when I need them too. Especially with the increase in man coverage the bills saw in 2023, having solid players may not be enough. 

793

674

581

422

355

352

 

Those are the yardage totals from the players you mentioned in the tweet. Not good enough IMO

 

 

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

There has never been a team who traded multiple first round picks for any WR that then won a Super Bowl.  Or, in the last 20 years, one 2 Super Bowl winning teams had a top 20 drafted WR1 on the roster (Mike Evans and 18 years ago Marvin Harrison).  How good was Randy Moss?  How about Calvin Johnson?  What about Julio Jones?  These are considered to be amongst the GOATS and the most unguardable as it gets at WR and none of them have a SB ring.  

Most WR’s drafted in any round don’t have a ring. This is not a solid argument.

[Alphadawg7]

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Most WR’s drafted in any round don’t have a ring. This is not a solid argument.

Ok, show me a team that won a Super Bowl after investing multiple first round picks into a WR.  Just find me one to show me it’s a worthy investment.  

[FireChans]

10 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Ok, show me a team that won a Super Bowl after investing multiple first round picks into a WR.  Just find me one to show me it’s a worthy investment.  

No team has every drafted a QB at #7 overall and won a Superbowl (since at least 1980).

 

Is it time to trade Josh Allen for picks and rebuild?  Clearly, because it's never happened, it means it can't happen.

[LABILLBACKER]

On 4/4/2024 at 8:59 PM, NickelCity said:

 

I think the only thing I like about this scenario is ending up with one of Legette or McConkey. I don't like Mitchell as a prospect and losing a very good 2nd round pick just to move up in the second round seems like awful value. Just take Legette or McConkey at 28.

I don't know why you're spooked over Thomas Jr or Mitchell.  I think they're both going to be solid receivers.  Guys like Worthy, Franklin & Coleman are the ones that worry me. Trading up in the 2nd round for Legette or McConkey would be amazing. Then sign M. Thomas to a cheap 1 yr deal. I think BB Gospel 2014 has a solid scenario. 

[Warriorspikes51]

4 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I don't know why you're spooked over Thomas Jr or Mitchell.  I think they're both going to be solid receivers.  Guys like Worthy, Franklin & Coleman are the ones that worry me. Trading up in the 2nd round for Legette or McConkey would be amazing. Then sign M. Thomas to a cheap 1 yr deal. I think BB Gospel 2014 has a solid scenario. 

I’d be shocked if we signed M.Thomas.  More drama than Diggs and cannot stay on the field.  
 

I think we’ll look to sign Boyd.  Is he capable of playing more than slot? If so, he’s the most likely vet UFA assuming we go that route instead of trade

 

Honestly, he’d probably be a pretty efficient 2 if absolutely needed IMO

Edited April 6 by Warriorspikes51

[NickelCity]

23 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I don't know why you're spooked over Thomas Jr or Mitchell.  I think they're both going to be solid receivers.  Guys like Worthy, Franklin & Coleman are the ones that worry me. Trading up in the 2nd round for Legette or McConkey would be amazing. Then sign M. Thomas to a cheap 1 yr deal. I think BB Gospel 2014 has a solid scenario. 

 

It's hard to be mad at Thomas Jr. provided we don't pay a premium to move up for him (more than a 4th on top of swapping firsts). But his tape is way too heavy on a single fly route, and he hasn't shown much else in the few games where he seemed to be asked to do more. Amazing physical traits, but he's far from a lock to me. Id be just as happy with legette, and if we can get him without moving up so much the better. Neither of the Texas receivers' tape gives me confidence in them. It's a crap shoot and I'm no guru, but it's just how I feel after finally getting around to watching all their targets.

[LABILLBACKER]

35 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

I’d be shocked if we signed M.Thomas.  More drama than Diggs and cannot stay on the field.  
 

I think we’ll look to sign Boyd.  Is he capable of playing more than slot? If so, he’s the most likely vet UFA assuming we go that route instead of trade

 

Honestly, he’d probably be a pretty efficient 2 if absolutely needed IMO

Boyd would also be an appropriate signing and one I would welcome. Not to mention the fanbase would probably embrace him for a year thanks to him helping us out of the drought. 

[MrEpsYtown]

2 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Genuinely asking:

 

Is the packers passing game something we should strive to be like? These are good players taken with decent selections and they’re getting good production but does that result in wins?

 

My concern here is, just acquiring guys who catch the football and are trustworthy only get you so far when teams line up and make you beat them. I want guys who can win 1v1 when I need them too. Especially with the increase in man coverage the bills saw in 2023, having solid players may not be enough. 

793

674

581

422

355

352

 

Those are the yardage totals from the players you mentioned in the tweet. Not good enough IMO

 

 

I think it’s a fair question. In terms of man to man coverage stuff, I believe you beat man coverage with scheme. The players matter to some extend, they need to be fast and run good routes and understand leverage, but there are a number of ways to beat man and we just didn’t do a good enough job scheming guys open and getting into those concepts last season. Daboll was excellent at this. And I am not saying we need to throw a bunch of cones out there and expect wins, but to me it’s about quality and quantity, not just one uber guy who costs you 30 million dollars or a massive amount of draft capital. That’s why I love what the Packers did. They drafted multiple young, fast receivers and tight ends. 

Sorry for the length of this, but I was curious as well, so I put on my nerd hat and dove deep…
 

So just out of curiosity I looked at the Bills top 4 WRs and two TEs and here is their production:

 

1,183 - Diggs

786 - Davis

611 - Shakir

150 - Harty

 

673 - Kincaid

186 - Knox

Believe it or not, Allen and Love both had an equal number of pass attempts. 
 

The Packers top 4 WRs amassed a total yards output of 2,470 yards and the two TEs amassed 707, all together it’s 3,177 yards. This was done in 85 games total of playing time as both Watson and Musgrave missed a bunch of games. Zero first round picks. All first and second year players and a 1st year starter at QB. 

 

The Bills totals for top 4 WRs is 2,630 and the two TEs amassed 859, so it totals up to 3,519. This was done in 96 games of playing time as Knox missed some games. 1st round picks spent on Diggs and Kincaid. Kincaid and Shakir are first/second year players, the other Bills guys are vets. (Diggs, Harty, Davis, Knox). Plus an all world veteran QB. 
 

The Bills’ group, in 2023, cost about 32 million in cap with Shakir being the cheapest player. The Packers’ group cost about 7.5 million dollars. I guess my point is, is the extra 342 yards in 11 more games worth 24.5 million dollars in cap? I don’t think so. In analytics, a yard is a yard. It’s moneyball, this number one receiver stuff, to me, is old school thinking. A catch is a catch. You just need good players with speed and some ability to run routes and get open against leverage. 
 

In both cases, it wasn’t enough as both teams lost in the divisional round. The Packers just did it in a much cheaper way. 
 

Let’s look at the team who did actually win it all, KC:

 

Top 4 WR:

Rice - 938

Watson - 460

MVS - 315

Moore - 244

 

TEs:

984 - Kelce

305 - Gray

The Chiefs WRs totaled 1957, and the TEs totaled 1289 for a total of 3246. This less than the Bills totals in more attempts by Mahomes. This was done in 94 total games. The Chiefs receiver and TE groups cost about 29 million, 26 of which is just Kelce and Valdes-Scantling. Zero first round picks. 
 

To me the idea of a number 1 must have receiver is an antiquated concept. You can get the same amount of production much cheaper. The problem with the Bills model is they were paying guys who weren’t good enough. Diggs did not really produce enough to get this team to a championship and Knox is overpaid as well. Harty was a waste. 
 

The Packers went to this model because they carried 57 million in dead cap this past year, and I believe that is where the Bills are headed. It’s not about massive amounts of trade up capital to get into the top 5. They can get a really good player in the 20s who improves the receiver room and helps make up for the catches that left with Diggs, Davis, and Harty. And they have the opportunity to complete this mission in a much more cost friendly way. 

 

Edited April 6 by MrEpsYtown

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I think it’s a fair question. In terms of man to man coverage stuff, I believe you beat man coverage with scheme. The players matter to some extend, they need to be fast and run good routes and understand leverage, but there are a number of ways to beat man and we just didn’t do a good enough job scheming guys open and getting into those concepts last season. Daboll was excellent at this. And I am not saying we need to throw a bunch of cones out there and expect wins, but to me it’s about quality and quantity, not just one uber guy who costs you 30 million dollars or a massive amount of draft capital. That’s why I love what the Packers did. They drafted multiple young, fast receivers and tight ends. 

Sorry for the length of this, but I was curious as well, so I put on my nerd hat and dove deep…
 

So just out of curiosity I looked at the Bills top 4 WRs and two TEs and here is their production:

 

1,183 - Diggs

786 - Davis

611 - Shakir

150 - Harty

 

673 - Kincaid

186 - Knox

Believe it or not, Allen and Love both had an equal number of pass attempts. 
 

The Packers top 4 WRs amassed a total yards output of 2,470 yards and the two TEs amassed 707, all together it’s 3,177 yards. This was done in 85 games total of playing time as both Watson and Musgrave missed a bunch of games. Zero first round picks. All first and second year players and a 1st year starter at QB. 

 

The Bills totals for top 4 WRs is 2,630 and the two TEs amassed 859, so it totals up to 3,519. This was done in 96 games of playing time as Knox missed some games. 1st round picks spent on Diggs and Kincaid. Kincaid and Shakir are first/second year players, the other Bills guys are vets. (Diggs, Harty, Davis, Knox). Plus an all world veteran QB. 
 

The Bills’ group, in 2023, cost about 32 million in cap with Shakir being the cheapest player. The Packers’ group cost about 7.5 million dollars. I guess my point is, is the extra 342 yards in 11 more games worth 24.5 million dollars in cap? I don’t think so. In analytics, a yard is a yard. It’s moneyball, this number one receiver stuff, to me, is old school thinking. A catch is a catch. You just need good players with speed and some ability to run routes and get open against leverage. 
 

In both cases, it wasn’t enough as both teams lost in the divisional round. The Packers just did it in a much cheaper way. 
 

Let’s look at the team who did actually win it all, KC:

 

Top 4 WR:

Rice - 938

Watson - 460

MVS - 315

Moore - 244

 

TEs:

984 - Kelce

305 - Gray

The Chiefs WRs totaled 1957, and the TEs totaled 1289 for a total of 3246. This less than the Bills totals in more attempts by Mahomes. This was done in 94 total games. The Chiefs receiver and TE groups cost about 29 million, 26 of which is just Kelce and Valdes-Scantling. Zero first round picks. 
 

To me the idea of a number 1 must have receiver is an antiquated concept. You can get the same amount of production much cheaper. The problem with the Bills model is they were paying guys who weren’t good enough. Diggs did not really produce enough to get this team to a championship and Knox is overpaid as well. Harty was a waste. 
 

The Packers went to this model because they carried 57 million in dead cap this past year, and I believe that is where the Bills are headed. It’s not about massive amounts of trade up capital to get into the top 5. They can get a really good player in the 20s who improves the receiver room and helps make up for the catches that left with Diggs, Davis, and Harty. And they have the opportunity to complete this mission in a much more cost friendly way. 

 

Packers and Chiefs both have excellent offensive minds at HC

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, FireChans said:

No team has every drafted a QB at #7 overall and won a Superbowl (since at least 1980).

 

Is it time to trade Josh Allen for picks and rebuild?  Clearly, because it's never happened, it means it can't happen.

Thats not an equal comparison.  WR has never been the missing piece on a Super Bowl team.  QB almost always has.  

[Ayjent]

Plenty of really talented WRs to do something as dumb as OP, especially considering this team just lost its starting WR1, WR2, C, SS, FS, and DE (not including Tre). This team needs its picks given its cap situation and it needs to go out and crush the draft with the picks it has or accumulate more not put all of their eggs in one basket that can underperform or never materialize.  Diggs was a 5th rounder, Shakir was a 5th rounder, Milano was a 5th rounder, Taron Johnson was a 4th rounder, Benford a 6th Rounder.  The point is keep the picks and with good scouting rebuild the roster by creating a higher likelihood of filling the holes with solid players.  They don’t set themselves up for long term success and another run by going all in on a WR in a loaded class.  I’m not even convinced the top rated 3 WRs are going to pan out.  
 

I also think Pearsall from Florida is being overhyped.  He’s solid but I don’t think he is anywhere near the talent of some of the others listed in the same range, and I don’t see him as a starting slot guy in the NFL.  Florida runs a Mickey Mouse offense with doofus coaching and an overrated transfer QB so maybe I’m just not as high on him because of that, but he’s not a shifty guy that shakes people.  He’s more of an upright route runner that gets where he is supposed to be but can be shut down by good coverage. Great if playing against zone - non factor against good man. Great hands though. 

[Coach Tuesday]

9 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I do think they could move up for Thomas too, how far is up for debate.  My guess is the same as you, probably needs to get to 20 or later.  

 

If we don't move up, then I think in the post Diggs era now that someone like Ladd McConkey who has that elite route running ability we are losing with Diggs becomes much more in play than before.  In fact, I have a feeling the only 2 we would look at with pick 28 is Mitchell or McConkey.  We could also move back and try and pick up say a 3rd this year and maybe still get McConkey, although I don't think he would make it past both Balt and KC personally.  

 

I have been very high on McConkey but wasn't sure if he would be high on the Bills board with Diggs here.  But Diggs trade I think elevates his potential to us and he is my WR5 on board behind Thomas.  Followed by Mitchell as the 6 guys I think we could take in the first.  Not sold they would stay at 28 and take one of the other WR's.  Could see them trading back a little bit or taking another position and then making a move for a WR in the 2nd.  

 

Be awesome if we could trade back a little bit and get back a 3rd and still get one of McConkey, Legette, Mitchell, etc.  

 

Find a way to get BOTH McConkey and Mitchell.  Hard but not impossible.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

8 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I think it’s a fair question. In terms of man to man coverage stuff, I believe you beat man coverage with scheme. The players matter to some extend, they need to be fast and run good routes and understand leverage, but there are a number of ways to beat man and we just didn’t do a good enough job scheming guys open and getting into those concepts last season. Daboll was excellent at this. And I am not saying we need to throw a bunch of cones out there and expect wins, but to me it’s about quality and quantity, not just one uber guy who costs you 30 million dollars or a massive amount of draft capital. That’s why I love what the Packers did. They drafted multiple young, fast receivers and tight ends. 

Sorry for the length of this, but I was curious as well, so I put on my nerd hat and dove deep…
 

So just out of curiosity I looked at the Bills top 4 WRs and two TEs and here is their production:

 

1,183 - Diggs

786 - Davis

611 - Shakir

150 - Harty

 

673 - Kincaid

186 - Knox

Believe it or not, Allen and Love both had an equal number of pass attempts. 
 

The Packers top 4 WRs amassed a total yards output of 2,470 yards and the two TEs amassed 707, all together it’s 3,177 yards. This was done in 85 games total of playing time as both Watson and Musgrave missed a bunch of games. Zero first round picks. All first and second year players and a 1st year starter at QB. 

 

The Bills totals for top 4 WRs is 2,630 and the two TEs amassed 859, so it totals up to 3,519. This was done in 96 games of playing time as Knox missed some games. 1st round picks spent on Diggs and Kincaid. Kincaid and Shakir are first/second year players, the other Bills guys are vets. (Diggs, Harty, Davis, Knox). Plus an all world veteran QB. 
 

The Bills’ group, in 2023, cost about 32 million in cap with Shakir being the cheapest player. The Packers’ group cost about 7.5 million dollars. I guess my point is, is the extra 342 yards in 11 more games worth 24.5 million dollars in cap? I don’t think so. In analytics, a yard is a yard. It’s moneyball, this number one receiver stuff, to me, is old school thinking. A catch is a catch. You just need good players with speed and some ability to run routes and get open against leverage. 
 

In both cases, it wasn’t enough as both teams lost in the divisional round. The Packers just did it in a much cheaper way. 
 

Let’s look at the team who did actually win it all, KC:

 

Top 4 WR:

Rice - 938

Watson - 460

MVS - 315

Moore - 244

 

TEs:

984 - Kelce

305 - Gray

The Chiefs WRs totaled 1957, and the TEs totaled 1289 for a total of 3246. This less than the Bills totals in more attempts by Mahomes. This was done in 94 total games. The Chiefs receiver and TE groups cost about 29 million, 26 of which is just Kelce and Valdes-Scantling. Zero first round picks. 
 

To me the idea of a number 1 must have receiver is an antiquated concept. You can get the same amount of production much cheaper. The problem with the Bills model is they were paying guys who weren’t good enough. Diggs did not really produce enough to get this team to a championship and Knox is overpaid as well. Harty was a waste. 
 

The Packers went to this model because they carried 57 million in dead cap this past year, and I believe that is where the Bills are headed. It’s not about massive amounts of trade up capital to get into the top 5. They can get a really good player in the 20s who improves the receiver room and helps make up for the catches that left with Diggs, Davis, and Harty. And they have the opportunity to complete this mission in a much more cost friendly way. 

 

I appreciate all the work you put into this. I still am a bit unsure that this approach is the right way to go. I understand the Chiefs WR room but I do believe they are the exception, not the rule. 

Looking around the league, if your approach is the case, why are pass catchers making increasingly more and more money? Sure, the increase in cap makes a ton of impact, but guys like Chase and Jefferson are going to shatter the ceiling. Mike Evans and Michael Pittman are being paid big money. Even teams with more cap space such as the Jags are paying through the nose for guys (Kirk/Davis). Why not simply draft players with day 2 picks and spend the money elsewhere?

Production is obviously important. However I feel that when that production happens is even more crucial. I think a lot of the guys names above have shown that they can win when it matters, and for a team trying to win the SB, they can’t wait around for a rookie to hopefully be that for them. 

[Wizard]

1. Trade for DK Metcalf. This year's 2nd, a 5th, and a 6th. Next year, the 2nd we acquired in the Diggs trade and a 4th. Sign him to a 5 year extension.

 

2. Draft Adonai Mitchell in Round 1.

 

We have everything else in Samuel, Shakir, developing Shorter, and the borderline roster guys.

 

That covers the WR room for the next 5 years.

 

 

 

 

[Chicken Boo]

If you're gonna be a bear be a grizzly.

 

That MHJ package that OP put together, I'd rather have Nabers or make that same offer to Minnesota for Justin Jefferson.  

 

If that doesn't work, either a trade into the teens for Brian Thomas Jr. or stay put at 28 and draft Mitchell or Franklin.  

 

All of the above work for me.  There are a plethora of options. 

[MrEpsYtown]

1 hour ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

I appreciate all the work you put into this. I still am a bit unsure that this approach is the right way to go. I understand the Chiefs WR room but I do believe they are the exception, not the rule. 

Looking around the league, if your approach is the case, why are pass catchers making increasingly more and more money? Sure, the increase in cap makes a ton of impact, but guys like Chase and Jefferson are going to shatter the ceiling. Mike Evans and Michael Pittman are being paid big money. Even teams with more cap space such as the Jags are paying through the nose for guys (Kirk/Davis). Why not simply draft players with day 2 picks and spend the money elsewhere?

Production is obviously important. However I feel that when that production happens is even more crucial. I think a lot of the guys names above have shown that they can win when it matters, and for a team trying to win the SB, they can’t wait around for a rookie to hopefully be that for them. 

I think prices have gotten out of control at that position, and I do think you should pay guys like Jefferson and Chase, but the cost of these guys has some collateral damage. Minnesota has to reset their QB situation to pay Jefferson. The Bengals will have to lose Tee Higgins and others to pay Chase. To me, they are the exception, they are the guys who take over games. My point is that there really isn’t much difference between a Romeo Doubs and a Gabe Davis. A team like Jacksonville keeps throwing money at the position and it doesn’t get them anywhere. When they pay Lawrence they will no longer be able to do that. But spending money on guys like Gabe, giving huge money to a Diggs or a Tee Higgins is lunacy. 
 

Once you pay the Quarterback, I don’t think you can pay these guys as well. I think if you have a franchise QB, a real one like Mahomes or Josh etc and you can keep that guy upright, I don’t think it matters who is catching the ball. now if the Bills could find a Chase or Jefferson then they would need to do everything they can to keep them. But the only way you get a Chase is picking in the top 5 and the only way you get a Jefferson is if you get lucky and identify the right guy through scouting.

 

I think the Bills are resetting their cap and as you said I think they will draft a couple of young guys and spend the money elsewhere going forward. I think Kincaid is there #1 and they just need to surround him with complimentary pieces. The Bills don’t have any money and so they are going to have to go forward with the idea of waiting and hoping rookie wide receivers step up and help them win a Super Bowl. I think this is the avenue they chose when they decided to move Diggs. 

Edited April 6 by MrEpsYtown

[Toyo321]

I just don't see any teams willing to give up any positions in the top 15 this year.  The cost is going to be very very steep with all the QB and WR, OT talent in this years draft.

If any team does manage to get into the top 15 via trade or picks this year, it is going to require a substantial package of picks, and future 1st round draft picks beyond 2024.   For any team trying to get into the top 15.  I am not saying it won't happen,  but come draft day some team is going to give a boatload of draft picks and other compensation to get into the top 15.  We just have to wait and see who.  I don't see Buffalo even attempting that.

 

I see buffalo maybe getting to 20 to take the 4th best WR left on the board this year, it's possible any one of these guys might be there.

Brian Thomas Jr.       
Adonai Mitchell    
Ladd McConkey 

Xavier Worthy

Edited April 6 by Toyo321

[Mr. WEO]

well, now they can start by removing the padded walls...

Edited April 6 by Mr. WEO